Time Series Analysis On Mean CBL Pressure and

Logistic Regression On Cardiac Conditions

*

Prajwal Shashidhara
Statistics For Data Analysis
National College Of Ireland
Dublin, Ireland
x22209077@student.ncirl.ie

Abstract—Time Series Analysis: Weather forecasting is impor-
tant because knowing what the weather might be like ahead of
time is super helpful for us to plan. Our project has details
about CBL pressure collected at Dublin Airport in Ireland. The
report presents a comprehensive analysis of the Mean Convective
Boundary Layer (CBL) pressure-hpa time series data obtained
from historical weather records. The objective was to conduct
a thorough time-series analysis employing different modelling
techniques to forecast the mean CBL pressure. Various models,
including Simple Time Series Models, Exponential Smoothing,
and ARIMA/SARIMA, were applied and evaluated for forecast-
ing performance.
Logistic Regression: This report investigates a data set encom-
passing various characteristics of individuals, with the primary
goal of predicting the likelihood of individuals having cardiac
conditions. Key factors such as age, weight, gender, and fitness
scores are analyzed to understand their potential correlation
with the presence or absence of cardiac issues. The study
comprises several essential steps including exploring the data
to understand its patterns, and constructing a predictive model
using logistic regression techniques. Utilizing statistical methods
and visualizations, this exploration aims to provide a clear
understanding of how each factor might influence the likelihood
of cardiac issues.
Index Terms—Time series analysis, Weather Forecasting, Sea-
sonal Decomposition, Stationarity, Exponential Smoothing, ACF,
PACF, ARIMA/SARIMA,Cardiac Conditions, Logistic Regres-
sion, Maximum Likelihood Estimation, Confusion Matrix, Ridge
Model, Lasso Model, Accuracy, Confusion Matrix, AUC-ROC,
Accuracy
I. I NTRODUCTION
A-Time series analysis: Weather forecasting is very impor-
tant in everyday life because it helps people plan what to wear
and prepare in our case Temperature data, atmospheric pres-
sure, and wind speed. The dataset, reported by Met Eireann,
spans several decades, containing detailed information about
temperature, atmospheric pressure, and wind speed, focusing
on a specific weather station Dublin Station, the dataset
encompasses observations starting from m 1st January 1942
to 31st October 2023, providing a rich repository of climatic
insights. The main aim is to explore, analyze, and model
the time series data to develop robust forecasting methods.
This involves the application of various statistical techniques
such as ARIMA/SARIMA models, Exponential Smoothing,
and Simple Time Series Models to capture and predict weather
trends accurately. Through this analysis, we aim to uncover
seasonal variations, detect underlying patterns, and evaluate
different forecasting models’ performance. Ultimately, the
project aims to contribute to enhanced weather prediction ca-
pabilities, enabling better preparedness and informed decision-
making in response to changing weather conditions.
B-Logistic Regression:Cardiovascular diseases are a major
health problem globally, affecting people in a wide range of
populations These conditions include a variety of heart and
blood vessel-related conditions, which often pose significant
health risks and require global treatment for effective preven-
tion and early detection, addressing and understanding the
factors contributing to these conditions is essential. Logistic
regression, a statistical technique, is used in this study to create
a predictive model The primary goal is to identify possible
connections between individuals’ demographics, health status,
and susceptibility to cardiac conditions. By exploring various
factors such as age, weight, gender, and fitness scores, this
investigation endeavours to uncover patterns or correlations
that might exist between these attributes and the likelihood
of individuals having cardiac issues. The goal is to create
a reliable predictive model that could assist in identifying
individuals at risk or those more prone to developing cardiac
conditions based on readily available information.
II. METHODOLOGY
Fig. 1. Time series Methodology
 Methodology for Time series Analysis on weather data
Fig. 2. Logistic Regression Methodology
Methodology for Logistic Regression on Cardiac Conditions
III. DEFINITION AND TERMINOLOGY
Logistic Regression
The logistic function, or S-shaped curve, acts like a magical
machine that takes any number and squeezes it between 0 and
1. Imagine it’s like a ”squisher” that never fully gets to 0 or
1 but stays super close. This magical tool is super handy in
guessing probabilities, like if your favorite team will win a
game or not. It’s also used in nature to describe how animal
or plant populations grow, but they eventually stop growing
because there’s only so much space and resources available
for them to thrive.
The sigmoid function in logistic regression is like a magical
Fig. 3. Sigmoid Curve
converter. You give it any number, and it crunches it down
to a value between 0 and 1. It’s a bit like squishing play
dough—no matter how big or small the number you put
in, the Sigmoid always smooshes it into this special range.
This function is great because it helps predict the chance
of something happening or not happening, like whether your
favourite team will win a game or not.
Accuracy: Think of accuracy like a score in a game—it tells
you how many times a team played and how many games they
won in total.
Precision: Imagine a chef making burgers and trying not
to waste any ingredients. Precision is like how accurately the
chef uses the right ingredients without wasting any, making
the perfect burger patties.
F1 Score: Think of F1 Score as a grade that combines how
well a student does on a written test and a presentation. It’s a
balanced score that considers both performances equally.
AUC-ROC: Imagine two friends studying for a test. AUC-
ROC measures how well they can separate the topics they’ve
mastered from the ones they’re still confused about, sort of
like how good they are at distinguishing between what they
know and what they don’t
. Confusion Matrix: Imagine a scoreboard showing how
many questions a teacher got right and wrong while grading
papers for two different subjects. It counts how many correct
and incorrect answers were given for each subject.
IV. EXPLORATORY DATA ANALYSIS
A-Time series Analysis
A. Data set and Variable Details
The dataset comprises a comprehensive collection of daily
weather data dating back to January 1st, 1942, providing
valuable insights into various meteorological parameters. The
row corresponds to a specific date and contains measurements
related to different weather aspects. These measurements in-
clude the mean CBL pressure (CBL) in hectopascals, rep-
resenting average pressure, and depicting water evaporation
rates. This dataset offers a comprehensive record of daily
weather conditions Such analysis can aid in understanding
long-term weather patterns, identifying trends, and developing
predictive models for future weather forecasts.
B. Descriptive Statistics (Summary of the Data)
The CBL (Mean CBL Pressure) column in the data tells us
about the average air pressure. It shows the average (mean)
pressure, how much the pressure usually changed (standard
deviation), and the lowest and highest pressure recorded. This
helps us understand how the air pressure varied over time.
C. Checking Missing Values
We’ll examine the data to ensure there aren’t any blank or
missing entries. If the list we get back after checking the data
shows zero, we’ll assume that there aren’t any missing values
in our dataset
D. Data Decomposition
In time series analysis, data decomposition means breaking
down a dataset into its main components so that we can better
understand its patterns The data is divided into three major
parts: the trend, seasonal variations, and irregularities or noise
The long-term direction of the data is shown by the trend
component, which indicates if values are consistently increas-
ing or decreasing over time Recurring patterns that happen
regularly, like daily, weekly, or yearly cycles, are highlighted
by seasonal variations Random fluctuations or irregularities
that are not explained by trends or seasonal patterns are
the remaining element Additive decomposition, which sums
up the components, and multiplicative decomposition, which

Fig. 4. Seasonal Decompose
multiplies them, are two common methods of decomposition
By analysing these elements, forecasters build more accurate
prediction models by identifying trends, recognising recurring
patterns, and comprehending irregularities. we have plotted the
decomposed data We can see in Fig 4 the upward trend in the
trend component from 2021 on wards for the CBL pressure.
Talking about seasonality in the Seasonal Component with the
cycle
E. Stationarity
Stationarity in time series means that things stay more or
less the same over time. When data is stationary, it does not
show big changes or patterns. It stays at a similar average level,
with consistent ups and downs without any overall trend. This
property is essential because it helps us use tools to make
predictions more accurately. Detecting stationarity involves
looking at the data visually or using tests to check if things
stay steady. To make data stationary, we can do things like
make changes in how we look at the numbers or use different
math tricks. Overall, having stationary data helps us predict
future trends better.
Dickey-Fuller Test is a statistical test used to check if
a time series data set is stationary or not. It evaluates the
presence of a unit root in the data, which, if present, indicates
non-stationarity. The core idea is to assess whether the data
shows a consistent pattern over time or if it exhibits a trend
that might affect predictions.
• Null Hypothesis: The null hypothesis assumes that the
data has a unit root and is non-stationary.
• Alternate Hypothesis: The alternate hypothesis suggests
that the data doesn’t have a unit root and is stationary.
In this, we can see p-value ¡= 0.05 & t-statics 12.49 are
less then the critical values so this is Stationarity
Fig. 5. Dickey-Fuller Test
B-Logistic Regression
1) Data set and Variable Details: The dataset comprises
information on 100 individuals, each characterized by several
attributes: age, weight, gender, fitness score, and cardiac
condition. Age, recorded in years, spans a range across the
data set, from 30 to 74 years old. Weight, likely measured
in kilogrammes, varies widely, ranging from 50 to 115.42
kg. Gender is represented categorically as male or female,
reflecting a mix of both genders within the data set. Fitness
scores, reflecting individuals’ fitness levels, demonstrate a
diverse spectrum, ranging notably between 27.35 and 62.5.
The crucial variable, cardiac condition, indicates the presence
or absence of cardiac issues among individuals, categorized as
present or absent. Notably, a variety of individuals within the
data set have differing fitness levels and weights, potentially
suggesting diverse health profiles among the participants.
2) Descriptive Statistics (Summary of the Data): Descrip-
tive statistics help us understand what the information in our
data set looks like. They show us things like what the average
value is for different details (like age or weight), how much
the numbers differ from that average (spread), and how often
certain values appear. Descriptive statistics are like a summary
that gives us a quick idea about the main characteristics of our
data, helping us understand and explore it better. We can look
at the mean, median, mode, variance, standard deviance, etc
So, the main goal here is to explore the data and learn from
it
3) Treatment of outliers : The box plot visualization aimed
at detecting outliers within the data set. A box plot displays the
distribution of numerical data through quartiles, highlighting
any potential outliers or extreme values in fig-6 we can see
some outliers are present in the age column the Inter quartile
Range (IQR) method used to detect potential outliers within
the ’age’ column
Fig. 6. Box Plot
 4) Multicollinearity : In fig 7 heat map serves as a powerful
tool for understanding the interrelationships between variables,
guiding further analysis or focusing on variables strongly
correlated with each other
In Fig. 8, we can see Out of all the people in the group,
65 people are considered more likely to have heart problems,
while 35 people are seen as less likely to have such issues.
This shows that more individuals in the group might have a
higher chance of having heart-related concerns compared to
those with a lower chance.

Fig. 7. Heat Map

5) Standard Scaler: A standard scaler is a tool used to Fig. 9. Cardiac Condition by Gender
make sure all the numbers in the data are in a similar range.
It changes the numbers so that each feature’s average becomes In Fig. 9, we can see that there are 63 people marked as
0 and its spread becomes 1. This helps the model work better ’male’ and 37 people marked as ’female’. This tells us that
by preventing any one feature from having too much impact there are more individuals labeled as ’male’ than ’female’ in
just because of its size, and it helps the model’s calculations our group. It’s like saying there are more boys than girls in a
run smoothly. class.
6) Encoding Categorical Data: Encoding categorical data
means converting non-numeric information (like categories or
labels) into numbers that a computer can understand. This
helps machine learning models handle and analyze this type
of data because many models work better with numbers rather
with words or categories. There are various methods to encode
categorical data, such as Label Encoding (assigning a unique
number to each category) or One-Hot Encoding (creating new
columns for each category and marking with 1s and 0s)
Fig. 10. Histogram for Age, Wright and Fitness score
V. DATA VISUALIZATION
Data visualization is like storytelling with pictures made
from numbers. Instead of staring at a list of numbers, it’s like
creating colorful, easy-to-understand pictures or diagrams that
tell a story. It’s like drawing a map or making a graph to show
what’s happening with the information. Just like how a picture
book helps you understand a story better than just words, data
visualization helps us understand data by showing it in a way
that’s simple and easy to grasp
Fig. 11. Cardiac Condition by Age Wright, Fitness score

In Fig 10 and 11 give us information about people who

Fig. 8. Count of Cardiac Condition
have a cardiac condition based on their age, weight, and
fitness scores. For age, it seems like most people who have
a cardiac condition are between 40 and 60 years old. This
means that many individuals facing this condition fall within
this age range. Regarding weight, a lot of those with a cardiac
condition seem to have maximum weights between 65 and
110. Lastly, for fitness scores, the graph suggests that people
with lower scores, specifically below 45, are more likely to
have a cardiac condition. So, it appears that among those with
a cardiac condition, many are between 40 and 60 years old,
have maximum weights between 65 and 110, and often have
fitness scores below 45. This helps us understand the typical
age, weight range, and fitness level of individuals in our data
set who suffer from a cardiac condition
Fig. 12. Pair plot
Fig-12 can help in identifying potential correlations or
patterns between these variables and how they relate to the
cardiac condition, offering insights into potential associations
or trends among the variables concerning cardiac health
VI. MODEL BUILDING AND EVALUATION
A-Time series Analysis
Our goal in constructing models is to create exponential
smoothing, ARIMA/SARIMA, and simple time series models.
Specifically focusing on predicting CBL pressure, we aim
to determine the most effective model among these three
methods. After evaluating their performance, we’ll select the
model that demonstrates the highest accuracy or effectiveness,
labelling it as the optimal choice for predicting CBL pressure
among the given methods.
A. Simple time series models
1) Linear Regression: Linear Regression is a statistical
method that establishes a relationship between the independent
variable (time in this case) and the dependent variable (the
observed data). It aims to predict future values based on
this relationship, assuming a linear trend over time. This
method considers how changes in time correlate with changes
in the observed variable, providing a predictive equation for
forecasting. In our analysis, Linear Regression resulted in a
certain prediction accuracy, quantified by an error metric like
RMSE
Fig. 13. Linear Regression Model Forecast
The root mean square error for the Linear Regression on-
time forecast on the data is 12.658.
2) Naive Model: The Naive Model is a straightforward
approach where the next predicted value is assumed to be
the same as the most recently observed value. This simple
method does not account for trends, patterns, or any external
factors influencing the data. It’s a baseline method used for
comparison against more sophisticated models. In our evalu-
ation, the Naive Model exhibited a certain level of prediction
error (measured by RMSE), indicating limitations in capturing
complex variations within the dataset.
The root mean square error for the Naive model on-time
forecast on the data is 23.945
3) Simple Average Model: The simple average model pre-
dicts future values by averaging all past observed values. It’s
a basic yet intuitive method that doesn’t consider trends or
patterns but provides a reference point for forecasting. This
model showed a certain predictive accuracy, as quantified by
an error measure such as RMSE.
The root mean square error for the simple average model
on-time forecast on the data is 12.94
4) Moving Average Model: The 2-Point Trailing Moving
Average method forecasts future values by averaging the
two most recent observed values. This technique attempts
to capture short-term trends in the data while smoothing
out minor fluctuations.Our analysis revealed that this model
demonstrated a relatively lower prediction error (measured
by RMSE) compared to other methods, indicating a better
predictive performance for this dataset.
Fig. 14. Moving Average Model
The root mean square error for the 2point trailing moving
average on-time forecast on the data is 3.00
B. Exponential Smoothing
Exponential smoothing is a widely used technique in
time series analysis that helps make predictions or forecasts
based on historical data. This method is particularly
effective for datasets. This method is particularly useful for
identifying trends and capturing seasonality in time series
data. Exponential Smoothing serves as a powerful tool in
time series analysis, providing reliable forecasts by gradually
refining predictions based on historical data trends and patterns
There are various types of Exponential Smoothing methods:
 1) Simple Exponential Smoothing: Simple Exponential
Smoothing is a fundamental method used for making forecasts
in time series data exhibiting a stable mean without trends
or seasonality. It employs a single smoothing parameter to
provide predictions based on past observations. Suitable for
data without pronounced trends or seasonal patterns. t assigns
exponentially decreasing weights to past observations, with
more weight given to recent data
2) Double Exponential Smoothing (Holt’s Method): Holt’s
Method, an extension of Simple Exponential Smoothing, in-
corporates trend information in addition to the level of the
data, making it suitable for time series with trends but no
seasonality. Handles data with trends but lacking seasonal
patterns. Handles data with trends but lacking seasonal pat-
terns. Employs two equations—one for level and another for
trend—to model data evolution over time.
3) Triple Exponential Smoothing (Holt-Winters Method):
Triple Exponential Smoothing, an extension of Double Ex-
ponential Smoothing, incorporates seasonal components in
addition to level and trend components, making it suitable
for time series data exhibiting both trends and seasonality
Designed for data showcasing trends along with seasonal
patterns. Considers level, trend, and seasonal indices to capture
variations across different periods.
Fig. 15. Exponential Smoothing
The Holt-Winters’ Exponential Smoothing method pro-
duced forecasts for the CBL pressure parameter in the test
dataset. These forecasts were derived based on the learned
patterns from the training data, accounting for both trend and
seasonality in the CBL pressure time series. For CBL pressure,
we have built Holt-Winters’ Exponential Smoothing the RMSE
value is 24.34
Fig. 16. Root Mean Squared Error
Fig. 17. Model Comparison Plots
In summary, while some methods like the 2-Point Moving
Average showed better predictive accuracy (lower RMSE),
others like the Naive Model and Exponential Smoothing
resulted in higher prediction errors in this dataset
C. ARIMA/SARIMA
ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) and
SARIMA (Seasonal ARIMA) models are mathematical tools
used to predict future values based on patterns found in time
series data. In simpler terms, they are like clever detectives
that study how things behaved in the past to make smart
guesses about what might happen in the future. ARIMA breaks
down into three parts: AR (AutoRegressive), which looks
at how past values affect future ones; I (Integrated), which
adjusts data to make it more predictable; and MA (Moving
Average), which predicts future values based on past prediction
errors. SARIMA includes all these components but focuses
on data showing seasonal patterns, like temperature changes
across seasons. These models are valuable because they can
understand complex data patterns and make predictions even
when the data changes over time, helping forecasters anticipate
future trends or behaviors based on historical data trends.
Fig. 18. ACF and PACF Plot
The SARIMA model is like a formula (p, d, q) x (P, D, Q)s
that helps understand both regular patterns and longer-term
trends in data. When we used this model with monthly data,
it performed well. It had a score of 12.54 for RMSE
• The top right plot shows that the red KDE line closely
follows the N(0,1) line. N(0,1) is the standard notation for
a normal distribution with mean 0 and standard deviation
1 This provides solid proof that the residuals are generally
distributed
 The aim is to find the parameter values that best explain the
observed data within the assumptions of Model 1, allowing
us to make predictions or understand relationships based on
the most probable parameter estimates. it particularly focuses
on its precision, recall, F1 score, and discrimination capability
through AUC-ROC.

Fig. 19. SIRIMA

• The ordered distribution of residuals, represented by

blue dots on the bottom left of the qq-plot, follows the
linear trend of the samples taken from a standard normal
Fig. 21. MLH Model
distribution with N(0, 1) Once again, this provides a
convincing proof that the residuals are generally dispersed
• residuals over time, shown on the top left plot, appear
to be white noise and do not show any clear seasonality
The auto correlation (or correlogram) plot on the bottom
right confirms this. It shows that the time series residuals
have a low correlation with the lagged versions of itself

Fig. 22. ROC Curve

2) Lasso Model: The Lasso Regression model achieved an

accuracy of 60%, demonstrating its ability to make correct
predictions in approximately 60 out of 100 instances. It
Fig. 20. Predicted SARIMA showed moderate precision, recall, and F1 score at 42.86%,
indicating a fair performance in identifying positive cases. The
B-Logistic Regression AUC-ROC score of 0.5934 suggests the model’s reasonable
Model building is like creating a tool that guesses things capability to distinguish between positive and negative cases
based on information it’s given. We pick the best way to in the data set
make this tool, using methods that help it learn from the
information we have. Once we’ve made the tool, we test
how good it is at guessing right when faced with new
information it hasn’t seen before. This checking process helps
us understand how well our tool predicts things accurately
in real-life situations. The aim is to make a tool that’s really
good at making predictions correctly, even when dealing with
new and unknown data.

1) Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE): Maximum

Likelihood Estimation (MLE) in Model 1 involves finding
the best values for the model’s parameters that make the
observed data the most likely or probable. It’s like fitting
a specific model to the data by adjusting its settings to Fig. 23. Lasso Model
maximize the chances of seeing the data that we observed.
 VII. CONCLUSION

A-Time series Analysis

After looking at different ways to understand and predict the
mean CBL pressure-hpa data, we found that some methods
worked better than others. At first, simpler methods gave us
a basic idea of the data. But when we used more advanced
methods like exponential smoothing, things got better. I feel 2
2-point trailing moving average is the best model for this data
set as it had the lowest RMSE, and also forecasted values
Fig. 24. Comparative AUC Curve for Models
were very near to actual values. The real star was a method
called SARIMA, especially when we used it with data. It
was really good at handling patterns that happen at certain
times of the year. When we checked its accuracy, it showed
that its predictions were usually about 1.35 units off from the
real values. On average, its guesses were about 1.05 units
away from the true values. So, we think that using SARIMA,
especially for data that changes with the seasons, is a great
way to predict mean CBL pressure (hpa) accurately. Using
smarter models like SARIMA can help us better understand
and predict weather elements, making forecasts more
reliable. In the future, making our models even better might
help us forecast even more accurately. Overall, using strong Fig. 25. Coefficients of Logistic Regression Model
models like SARIMA is crucial for better weather predictions.
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