LAMPIRAN 1.

Program Estimasi Model EkonomiRumahtangga

PetaniKedelaiMetode 2SLS

/*Program SAS913 13022012 UjianTerbuka 31012012*/

Title01 ProSAS 13022012 UT31012012 By : RMS;
Data Satu;
Input NO LAT LAP PRO PKpPKt JB JPU JPS JPK JO JZ JR BS BTK BUK;
Label NO = No mo rResponden
LAT = Luas Areal Tanam(Ha)
LAP = Luas Areal Panen(Ha)
PRO = ProduksiKedelai(Kg)
PKp = Prodtvts.KPnn(Kg/Ha)
PKt = Prodtvts.KTnm(Kg/Ha)
JB = Jmlh BenihKedelai(Kg)
JPU = JmlhPupuk Urea (Kg)
JPS = JmlhPp k.Sp 36/Tsp(Kg)
JPK = JmlhPp k.Kcl/Za (Kg)
JO = JmlhObat/Pestsd(Lt)
JZ = Ju mlah ZPT/ Ppc (Lt)
JR = Jmlh Rhizo+ (Sachet)
BS = BiayaSaranaProd(Rp)
BTK = BiayaTenagaKerja(Rp)
BUK = BiayaUt.Kedelai(Rp );
Cards;

Data Dua;
Input NO TKDK TKLK TKK TKDN TKDL TKD TKL TK CK TKLN TKLL CKL;
Label NO = No mo rResponden
TKDK = TK DlmKlrg Kdl (HOK)
TKLK = TK LuarKlrgKd l(HOK)
TKK = TenagaKerjaKd l(HOK)
TKDN = TKDlmKlgNonKdl(HOK)
TKDL = TKDlmKlgNUtLain(HOK)
TKD = TKDalamKeluarga(HOK)
TKL = TK LuarKeluarga(HOK)
TK = TenagaKerjaTtl(HOK)
CK = CurahKerjaTotal(HOK)
TKLN = TKLrKlrgNonKd l(HOK)
TKLL = TKLrKlgNUtLain(HOK)
CKL = CurahKerjaLrKlg(HOK);
Cards;

Data Tiga;
Input NO BB BP BO BS BTK BUK PUK PUKT PNK PNL PRT;
Label NO = No mo rResponden
BB = BiayaBenih (Rp)
BP = BiayaPupuk (Rp)
BO = BiayaObat/Pests(Rp)
BS = BiayaSaranaProd(Rp)
BTK = BiayaTenagaKerja(Rp)
BUK = BiayaUt.Kedelai(Rp )
PUK = PenerimaanUt.Kd l(Rp)
PUKT = PndapatnUtKdlTtl(Rp)
PNK = PndapatnNonKdl (Rp)
198

PNL = PndapatnNUt Lain(Rp)

PRT = PendapatanRT.Ttl(Rp);
Cards;

Data Empat;
Input NO PRT PD KPT KNP KT IE IH IS PBB KL;
Label NO = No mo rResponden
PRT = PendapatanRT.Ttl(Rp)
PD = PndptnDisposable(Rp)
KPT = KonsumsiPngTunai(Rp)
KNP = KonsumsiNonPngn(Rp)
KT = KonsumsiRT.Total(Rp)
IE = InvestasiPdidikn(Rp)
IH = InvestasiKsehatn(Rp)
IS = InvestasiSmbrDy(Rp)
PBB = PajakBu miBngn (Rp)
KL = Konsumsi Lain (Rp );
Cards;

Data Lima;
Input NO IS IP INV TA B KRE KT BRT PRO KK KJ;
Label NO = No mo rResponden
IS = InvestasiSmbrdy(Rp)
IP = InvestasiProPert(Rp)
INV = InvestasiRT.Ttl(Rp)
TAB = Tabungan (Rp)
KRE = KreditPertanian(Rp)
KT = Konsumsi Total (Rp)
BRT = Pengeluaran RTTtl(Rp)
PRO = ProduksiKedelai(Kg)
KK = KonsumsiKedelai(Kg)
KJ = Kd lJual/Su rplusP(Kg);
Cards;

Data Enam;
Input NO HK HG HJ HS HU HKT HKH HTpHTh HHK HTI ;
Label NO = No mo rResponden
HK = HargaKedelai(Rp/Kg)
HG = HargaGabahKP(Rp/Kg)
HJ = HargaJagung (Rp/Kg)
HS = HargaSingkong(Rp/Kg)
HU = HargaUbiJalar(Rp/Kg)
HKT = HargaKacngTnh(Rp/Kg)
HKH = HargaKacangHj(Rp/Kg)
HTp = HargaTempe(Rp/0.5Kg)
HTh = HargaTahu(Rp/0.5Kg)
HHK = Hrg Rata2HslKebun(Rp)
HTI = Hrg Rata2Tnk/Ikan(Rp);
Cards;

Data Tujuh;
Input NO HB HPU HPS HPK HO HZ HR UTKL HPH JPH;
Label NO = No mo rResponden
HB = HargaBen ihKdl(Rp/Kg)
HPU = HargaPpk.Urea(Rp/Kg)
HPS = Hrg PSp36/Tsp(Rp/Kg)
 199

HPK = HargaPKcl/Za(Rp/Kg)
HO = HrgObat/Pest(Rp/Lt)
HZ = HargaZpt/Ppc(Rp/ Lt)
HR = HargaRh izo+(Rp/Sch)
UTKL = UpahTKLuarKl(Rp/HOK)
HPH = Hg PHijau/Kdng(Rp/Kg)
JPH = JmlhPHijau/Kdng(Kg);
Cards;

Data Delapan;
Input NO SB UM ED AKK A K AT PBB KL LAT LAP;
Label NO = No mo rResponden
SB = Su kuBungaKredit (%/T)
UM = UmurPetani (Th)
ED = Lama Pendidikan (Th)
AKK = AngktnKerjaKlg(Orng)
AK = AnggotaKlrg (Orang)
AT = Asset Total (Rp)
PBB = PajakBu miBngnn(Rp)
KL = KonsumsLainTunai(Rp)
LAT = Luas Areal Tanam(Ha)
LAP = Luas Areal Panen(Ha);
Cards;

Data Sembilan;
Input NO KKB KKP KKL KK TKLN TKLL CKL DA DI DG DS;
Label NO = No mo rResponden
KKB = KonsumsiKdlBenih(Kg)
KKP = KonsumsiKdlPngn(Kg )
KKL = KonsumsiKdlLain(Kg )
KK = KonsumsiKedelai(Kg)
TKLN = TKLuarKlgNonKd l(HOK)
TKLL = TKLuarKlNUt Lain(HOK)
CKL = CurahKerjaLrKlg(HOK)
DA = Du mmyArea "MilikSdr=1"
DI = Du mmyIrigasi"Teknis=1"
DG = Du mmy Gender "Laki2=1"
DS = Du mmySkill "TamatSD=1";
Cards;

Options NoDateNoNu mberNo Center;

Data DELE;
Set SatuDuaTigaEmpat Lima EnamTu juhDelapan Semb ilan;
Merge SatuDuaTigaEmpat Lima EnamTu juhDelapan Semb ilan;
BS = (JB* HB)+((JPU*HPU)+(JPS* HPS)+(JPK* HPK))+((JO*HO)+(JZ* HZ)+(JR* HR));
BTK = (TKLK)*(UTKL);
PUK = (PRO)*(HK);
PUKT = PUK - BS - BTK;
PKp = (PRO)/(LAP);
Hkpu = (Hk/Hpu);
Hkps = (Hk/Hps);
Hkp k = (Hk/Hpk);
If DA>0 Then DA =1; Else DA=0;
If DI>0 Then DI=1; Else DI=0;
If DG>0 Then DG=1; Else DG=0;
If DS>0 Then DS=1; Else DS=0;
200

Label DA = Du mmyArea "MilikSdr=1"

DI = Du mmyIrigasi"Teknis=1"
DG = Du mmy Gender "Laki2=1"
DS = Du mmySkill "TamatSD=1"
Hkpu = RasioHgKd l/HgPUrea
Hkps = RasioHgKd l/HgPSpTsp
Hkp k = RasioHgKd l/HgPKclZa
BS = BiayaSaranaProd(Rp)
BTK = BiayaTenagaKerja(Rp)
PUK = PenerimaanUt.Kd l(Rp)
PUKT = PndapatnUtKdlTtl(Rp)
PKp = ProdtvtKdlPnn(Kg/Ha);
RUN;

Title02 Prosedur SYSLIN ProSAS 13022012;

ProcSyslin Data=DELE 2SLS OutEst=Kedelai Simple;
Endogenous LAP PRO JB JPU JPS JPK JO JZ
JR TKDK TKLK TKDN TKDL PNK PNL KPT
KNP IE IH IP TAB KRE TKK TKD
TKL TK CK BS BTK BUK PUK PUKT
PRT PD KT IS INV BRT KJ PKp;
Instruments HK HG HJ HS HU HKT HKH HB
HPU HPS HPK HO HZ HR HTp HTh
HTI HHK UTKL UM ED AKK AK AT
SB PBB KL KK TKLN TKLL CKL JPH
Da Di Dg Ds Hkpu Hkps Hkp k ;
;
LAP: Model LAP = HK HJ hkhhpu AT JB TKDK PRT / DW;
PRO: Model PRO = HB hps HZ HR LAP KRE PUK / DW;
JB: Model JB = HB HZ HR LAP KRE PUK / DW;
JPU: Model JPU = HKPU HB HO HZ jph PNK pnl PUK / DW;
JPS: Model JPS = HKPS HB HZ da LAP TKLK PNK / DW;
JPK: Model JPK = hkp khb HO hzjph lap PNK PUK / DW;
JO: Model JO = HO HB h z HR jph di PNK PUK / DW;
JZ: Model JZ = HZ hb HO HR PNK PUK / DW;
JR: Model JR = HR hbhpu HO h z JPH LAP prt / DW;
TKDK: Model TKDK = utkl UM ED AKK DG LAP JPS TA B / DW;
TKLK: Model TKLK = UTKL u m ed DS tkdl JPS PUK / DW;
TKDN: Model TKDN = utklhkakk tklk PNK tab / DW;
TKDL: Model TKDL = utkl UM ED tklk PNL PUKT / DW;
PNK: Model PNK = HKT PNL pukt TAB KRE /Noint DW;
PNL: Model PNL = HTP hti at PNK PUKT TA B KRE / Noint DW;
KPT: Model KPT = HJ AK KK KNP KRE / DW;
KNP: Model KNP = UM AK KPT PNL KT / Noint DW;
IE: Model IE = HK hshuhtihhk um edak IP pnl INV / DW;
IH: Model IH = hg hth IP KRE INV / DW;
IP: Model IP = AT IS pro PRT /No int DW;
TAB: Model TA B = SB hti PD / Noint DW;
KRE: Model KRE = SB HPU HO JPH tab JB KT IH /Noint DW;
;
TKK: Identity TKK = TKDK + TKLK;
TKD: Identity TKD = TKDK + TKDN + TKDL;
TKL: Identity TKL = TKLK + TKLN + TKLL;
TK: Identity TK = TKD + TKL;
CK: Identity CK = TKD + CKL;
 201

BS: Identity BS = BS + 0;
BTK: Identity BTK = BTK + 0;
BUK: Identity BUK = BS + BTK;
PUK: Identity PUK = PUK + 0;
PUKT: Identity PUKT = PUK - BUK;
PRT: Identity PRT = PUKT + PNK + PNL;
PD: Identity PD = PRT - PBB;
KT: Identity KT = KPT + KNP + KL;
IS: Identity IS = IE + IH;
INV: Identity INV = IS + IP;
BRT: Identity BRT = KT + INV;
KJ: Identity KJ = PRO - KK;
PKp: Identity PKp = PKp + 0;
RUN;
;
LAMPIRAN 2. HasilEstimasi Model EkonomiRumahtangga
PetaniKedelaiMetode 2SLS

ProSAS 13022012 Ujian Terbuka 31012012 By: RMS.

Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model LAP
Dependent Variable LAP
Label Luas Areal Panen(Ha)
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F
Model 8 76.99921 9.624901 136.30 <.0001
Error 241 17.01830 0.070615
Corrected Total 249 98.00149
Root MSE 0.26574 R-Square 0.81899
Dependent Mean 0.65980 Adj R-Sq 0.81298
CoeffVar 40.27516
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label
Intercept 1 0.066704 0.351519 0.19 0.8497 Intercept
HK 1 0.000072 0.000029 2.47 0.0143 HargaKedelai(Rp/Kg )
HJ 1 -0.00022 0.000065 -3.45 0.0007 HargaJagung (Rp/Kg)
HKH 1 -0.00002 0.000028 -0.87 0.3827 HargaKacangHj(Rp/Kg)
HPU 1 -0.00017 0.000263 -0.66 0.5125 HargaPpk.Urea(Rp/Kg)
AT 1 2.55E-9 4.55E-10 5.60 <.0001 Asset Total (Rp)
JB 1 0.010007 0.000990 10.11 <.0001 Jmlh BenihKedelai(Kg)
TKDK 1 0.002492 0.000401 6.22 <.0001 TK DlmKlrgKdl (HOK)
PRT 1 1.66E-8 4.838E-9 3.43 0.0007 PendapatanRT.Ttl(Rp)
Durbin-Watson 1.439768
Nu mber of Observations 250
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.277378
204

Model PRO
Dependent Variable PRO
Label ProduksiKedelai(Kg)
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F
Model 7 1.6709E8 23870168 183.23 <.0001
Error 242 31525801 130271.9
Corrected Total 249 2.2944E8
Root MSE 360.93200 R-Square 0.84127
Dependent Mean 853.10400 Adj R-Sq 0.83668
CoeffVar 42.30809
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label
Intercept 1 1168.302 320.0019 3.65 0.0003 Intercept
HB 1 -0.17114 0.038576 -4.44 <.0001 HargaBen ihKdl(Rp/Kg)
HPS 1 -0.19309 0.194336 -0.99 0.3214 Hrg PSp36/Tsp(Rp/Kg)
HZ 1 -0.00246 0.001524 -1.62 0.1076 HargaZpt/Ppc(Rp/ Lt)
HR 1 -0.09223 0.027695 -3.33 0.0010 HargaRh izo+(Rp/Sch)
LAP 1 250.1141 115.9366 2.16 0.0320 Luas Areal Panen(Ha)
KRE 1 0.000458 0.000126 3.64 0.0003 KreditPertanian(Rp)
PUK 1 0.000274 0.000034 8.14 <.0001 Penerimaan Ut.Kd l(Rp)
Durbin-Watson 1.61638
Nu mber of Observations 250
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.163261

Model JB
Dependent Variable JB
Label Jmlh BenihKedelai(Kg)
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F
Model 6 185909.2 30984.86 152.85 <.0001
Error 243 49258.15 202.7084
Corrected Total 249 229920.7
Root MSE 14.23757 R-Square 0.79054
Dependent Mean 31.92800 Adj R-Sq 0.78537
CoeffVar 44.59274
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label
Intercept 1 50.34381 6.438580 7.82 <.0001 Intercept
HB 1 -0.00579 0.001520 -3.81 0.0002 HargaBen ihKdl(Rp/Kg)
HZ 1 -0.00019 0.000059 -3.22 0.0015 HargaZpt/Ppc(Rp/ Lt)
HR 1 -0.00634 0.001050 -6.04 <.0001 HargaRh izo+(Rp/Sch)
LAP 1 20.97170 4.425472 4.74 <.0001 Luas Areal Panen(Ha)
KRE 1 7.06E-6 4.95E-6 1.43 0.1551 KreditPertanian(Rp)
PUK 1 6.546E-6 1.266E-6 5.17 <.0001 Penerimaan Ut.Kd l(Rp)
Durbin-Watson 1.35467
Nu mber of Observations 250
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.314543
 205

Model JPU
Dependent Variable JPU
Label JmlhPupuk Urea (Kg)
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F
Model 8 221451.1 27681.39 10.92 <.0001
Error 241 611111.6 2535.733
Corrected Total 249 845947.5
Root MSE 50.35606 R-Square 0.26599
Dependent Mean 49.22400 Adj R-Sq 0.24162
CoeffVar 102.29982
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label
Intercept 1 73.23491 18.01896 4.06 <.0001 Intercept
Hkpu 1 10.53485 5.754650 1.83 0.0684 RasioHgKd l/HgPUrea
HB 1 -0.01359 0.005822 -2.33 0.0204 HargaBen ihKdl(Rp/Kg)
HO 1 -0.00050 0.000139 -3.61 0.0004 HrgObat/Pest(Rp/Lt )
HZ 1 -0.00055 0.000215 -2.54 0.0118 HargaZpt/Ppc(Rp/ Lt)
JPH 1 0.004604 0.004616 1.00 0.3196 JmlhPHijau/Kdng(Kg )
PNK 1 4.236E-6 1.504E-6 2.82 0.0052 PndapatnNonKdl (Rp)
PNL 1 1.128E-6 1.265E-6 0.89 0.3734 PndapatnNUtLain (Rp )
PUK 1 7.359E-6 2.143E-6 3.43 0.0007 Penerimaan Ut.Kd l(Rp)
Durbin-Watson 1.677979
Nu mber of Observations 250
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.054992

Model JPS
Dependent Variable JPS
Label JmlhPp k.Sp 36/Tsp(Kg)
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F
Model 7 111436.8 15919.54 13.89 <.0001
Error 242 277441.2 1146.451
Corrected Total 249 399138.7
Root MSE 33.85928 R-Square 0.28656
Dependent Mean 35.41600 Adj R-Sq 0.26592
CoeffVar 95.60448
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label
Intercept 1 -0.66949 12.26134 -0.05 0.9565 Intercept
Hkps 1 11.86229 5.619310 2.11 0.0358 RasioHgKd l/HgPSpTsp
HB 1 -0.00573 0.003970 -1.44 0.1501 HargaBen ihKdl(Rp/Kg)
HZ 1 -0.00035 0.000148 -2.40 0.0171 HargaZpt/Ppc(Rp/ Lt)
DA 1 4.111293 4.736468 0.87 0.3862 Du mmyAreaMilikSdr=1
LAP 1 13.69883 6.933913 1.98 0.0493 Luas Areal Panen(Ha)
TKLK 1 0.131396 0.042733 3.07 0.0023 TK LuarKlrgKd l(HOK)
PNK 1 2.203E-6 1.212E-6 1.82 0.0703 PndapatnNonKdl (Rp)
Durbin-Watson 1.788806
Nu mber of Observations 250
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.044793
206

Model JPK
Dependent Variable JPK
Label JmlhPp k.Kcl/Za (Kg )
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F
Model 8 85252.21 10656.53 15.81 <.0001
Error 241 162479.7 674.1897
Corrected Total 249 244065.8
Root MSE 25.96516 R-Square 0.34413
Dependent Mean 20.21200 Adj R-Sq 0.32236
CoeffVar 128.46409
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label
Intercept 1 8.786600 9.349009 0.94 0.3482 Intercept
Hkp k 1 1.353340 4.249404 0.32 0.7504 RasioHgKd l/HgPKclZa
HB 1 -0.00254 0.003052 -0.83 0.4062 HargaBen ihKdl(Rp/Kg)
HO 1 -0.00006 0.000071 -0.89 0.3750 HrgObat/Pest(Rp/Lt )
HZ 1 -0.00014 0.000114 -1.21 0.2265 HargaZpt/Ppc(Rp/ Lt)
JPH 1 0.001978 0.002378 0.83 0.4065 JmlhPHijau/Kdng(Kg )
LAP 1 9.972467 9.158262 1.09 0.2773 Luas Areal Panen(Ha)
PNK 1 2.379E-6 9.444E-7 2.52 0.0124 PndapatnNonKdl (Rp)
PUK 1 3.465E-6 2.104E-6 1.65 0.1008 Penerimaan Ut.Kd l(Rp)
Durbin-Watson 1.570851
Nu mber of Observations 250
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.135812

Model JO
Dependent Variable JO
Label Jmlh Obat/Pestsd(Lt)
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F
Model 8 267.5056 33.43820 14.91 <.0001
Error 241 540.4225 2.242417
Corrected Total 249 794.7492
Root MSE 1.49747 R-Square 0.33110
Dependent Mean 1.21560 Adj R-Sq 0.30890
CoeffVar 123.18774
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label
Intercept 1 3.927157 0.871148 4.51 <.0001 Intercept
HO 1 -0.00002 4.138E-6 -4.90 <.0001 HrgObat/Pest(Rp/Lt )
HB 1 -0.00032 0.000166 -1.90 0.0582 HargaBen ihKdl(Rp/Kg)
HZ 1 -7.82E-6 6.433E-6 -1.22 0.2252 HargaZpt/Ppc(Rp/ Lt)
HR 1 -0.00033 0.000129 -2.57 0.0108 HargaRh izo+(Rp/Sch)
JPH 1 0.000081 0.000137 0.59 0.5557 JmlhPHijau/Kdng(Kg )
DI 1 0.271045 0.294409 0.92 0.3582 Du mmyIrigasiTeknis=1
PNK 1 8.193E-8 4.641E-8 1.77 0.0788 PndapatnNonKdl (Rp)
PUK 1 3.326E-7 6.409E-8 5.19 <.0001 Penerimaan Ut.Kd l(Rp)
Durbin-Watson 1.78933
Nu mber of Observations 250
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.07583
 207

Model JZ
Dependent Variable JZ
Label Jumlah ZPT/Ppc (Lt)
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F
Model 6 342.2634 57.04390 16.45 <.0001
Error 243 842.7477 3.468098
Corrected Total 249 1146.934
Root MSE 1.86228 R-Square 0.28883
Dependent Mean 1.18640 Adj R-Sq 0.27127
CoeffVar 156.96923
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label
Intercept 1 3.282425 0.892788 3.68 0.0003 Intercept
HZ 1 -0.00003 7.923E-6 -3.63 0.0003 HargaZpt/Ppc(Rp/ Lt)
HB 1 -0.00023 0.000206 -1.13 0.2595 HargaBen ihKdl(Rp/Kg)
HO 1 -0.00001 4.939E-6 -2.67 0.0082 HrgObat/Pest(Rp/Lt )
HR 1 -0.00032 0.000127 -2.52 0.0124 HargaRh izo+(Rp/Sch)
PNK 1 2.112E-7 5.483E-8 3.85 0.0002 PndapatnNonKdl (Rp)
PUK 1 2.826E-7 7.913E-8 3.57 0.0004 Penerimaan Ut.Kd l(Rp)
Durbin-Watson 1.646834
Nu mber of Observations 250
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.017281

Model JR
Dependent Variable JR
Label Jmlh Rhizo+ (Sachet)
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F
Model 8 220.2451 27.53064 9.68 <.0001
Error 241 685.5052 2.844420
Corrected Total 249 875.4240
Root MSE 1.68654 R-Square 0.24316
Dependent Mean 1.95200 Adj R-Sq 0.21804
CoeffVar 86.40066
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label
Intercept 1 3.610284 1.996962 1.81 0.0719 Intercept
HR 1 -0.00015 0.000115 -1.29 0.1989 HargaRh izo+(Rp/Sch)
HB 1 -0.00014 0.000182 -0.75 0.4529 HargaBen ihKdl(Rp/Kg)
HPU 1 -0.00126 0.001624 -0.78 0.4387 HargaPpk.Urea(Rp/Kg)
HO 1 -8.4E-6 4.674E-6 -1.80 0.0737 HrgObat/Pest(Rp/Lt )
HZ 1 -5.03E-6 7.306E-6 -0.69 0.4916 HargaZpt/Ppc(Rp/ Lt)
JPH 1 0.000429 0.000156 2.76 0.0063 JmlhPHijau/Kdng(Kg )
LAP 1 1.228472 0.334269 3.68 0.0003 Luas Areal Panen(Ha)
PRT 1 4.458E-8 3.514E-8 1.27 0.2058 PendapatanRT.Ttl(Rp)
Durbin-Watson 2.022777
Nu mber of Observations 250
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.13027
208

Model TKDK
Dependent Variable TKDK
Label TK DlmKlrgKdl (HOK)
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F
Model 8 258911.9 32363.98 9.27 <.0001
Error 241 841474.0 3491.593
Corrected Total 249 1084800
Root MSE 59.08971 R-Square 0.23529
Dependent Mean 102.49600 Adj R-Sq 0.20991
CoeffVar 57.65074
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label
Intercept 1 93.41927 27.85522 3.35 0.0009 Intercept
UTKL 1 -0.00141 0.002389 -0.59 0.5558 UpahTKLuarKl(Rp/HOK)
UM 1 -0.75052 0.395901 -1.90 0.0592 UmurPetani (Th )
ED 1 -3.66962 1.374443 -2.67 0.0081 Lama Pendidikan (Th)
AKK 1 5.591721 2.898532 1.93 0.0549 AngktnKerjaKlg(Orng)
DG 1 23.91475 11.63580 2.06 0.0409 Du mmy Gender Laki2=1
LAP 1 29.65159 11.97117 2.48 0.0139 Luas Areal Panen(Ha)
JPS 1 0.384268 0.221722 1.73 0.0844 JmlhPp k.Sp 36/Tsp(Kg)
TAB 1 1.367E-6 1.059E-6 1.29 0.1983 Tabungan (Rp)
Durbin-Watson 1.22171
Nu mber of Observations 250
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.373101

Model TKLK
Dependent Variable TKLK
Label TK LuarKlrgKd l(HOK)
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F
Model 7 395359.4 56479.91 11.47 <.0001
Error 242 1191913 4925.260
Corrected Total 249 1428711
Root MSE 70.18020 R-Square 0.24908
Dependent Mean 160.75200 Adj R-Sq 0.22736
CoeffVar 43.65743
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label
Intercept 1 173.6533 30.88286 5.62 <.0001 Intercept
UTKL 1 -0.00545 0.002770 -1.97 0.0502 UpahTKLuarKl(Rp/HOK)
UM 1 -0.38456 0.455396 -0.84 0.3993 UmurPetani (Th )
ED 1 -1.49175 1.798996 -0.83 0.4078 Lama Pendidikan (Th)
DS 1 25.28731 12.90813 1.96 0.0513 Du mmySkillTamatSD=1
TKDL 1 -0.09211 0.094922 -0.97 0.3328 TKDlmKlgNUt Lain(HOK)
JPS 1 1.173357 0.239377 4.90 <.0001 JmlhPp k.Sp 36/Tsp(Kg)
PUK 1 5.371E-6 2.901E-6 1.85 0.0653 Penerimaan Ut.Kd l(Rp)
Durbin-Watson 1.610027
Nu mber of Observations 250
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.115075
 209

Model TKDN
Dependent Variable TKDN
Label TKDlmKlgNonKdl(HOK)
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F
Model 6 348074.9 58012.48 10.81 <.0001
Error 243 1303675 5364.917
Corrected Total 249 1614578
Root MSE 73.24559 R-Square 0.21073
Dependent Mean 142.01600 Adj R-Sq 0.19124
CoeffVar 51.57559
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label
Intercept 1 90.92766 28.26124 3.22 0.0015 Intercept
UTKL 1 -0.00237 0.003088 -0.77 0.4444 UpahTKLuarKl(Rp/HOK)
HK 1 0.008825 0.008036 1.10 0.2732 HargaKedelai(Rp/Kg )
AKK 1 3.764380 3.383508 1.11 0.2670 AngktnKerjaKlg(Orng)
TKLK 1 -0.08005 0.089692 -0.89 0.3730 TK LuarKlrgKd l(HOK)
PNK 1 9.348E-6 2.394E-6 3.90 0.0001 PndapatnNonKdl (Rp)
TAB 1 1.353E-6 1.383E-6 0.98 0.3290 Tabungan (Rp)
Durbin-Watson 1.283914
Nu mber of Observations 250
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.357558

Model TKDL
Dependent Variable TKDL
Label TKDlmKlgNUt Lain(HOK)
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F
Model 6 361364.4 60227.40 11.74 <.0001
Error 243 1246706 5130.479
Corrected Total 249 1426037
Root MSE 71.62736 R-Square 0.22472
Dependent Mean 106.41200 Adj R-Sq 0.20558
CoeffVar 67.31136
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label
Intercept 1 115.1008 32.43410 3.55 0.0005 Intercept
UTKL 1 -0.00112 0.002960 -0.38 0.7047 UpahTKLuarKl(Rp/HOK)
UM 1 -0.63897 0.448221 -1.43 0.1553 UmurPetani (Th )
ED 1 -4.06150 1.653320 -2.46 0.0147 Lama Pendidikan (Th)
TKLK 1 -0.09087 0.082401 -1.10 0.2712 TK LuarKlrgKd l(HOK)
PNL 1 0.000014 1.882E-6 7.66 <.0001 PndapatnNUtLain (Rp )
PUKT 1 5.206E-6 2.862E-6 1.82 0.0702 PndapatnUtKdlTtl(Rp)
Durbin-Watson 2.096008
Nu mber of Observations 250
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.0517
210

Model PNK
Dependent Variable PNK
Label PndapatnNonKdl (Rp)
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F
Model 5 6.555E15 1.311E15 162.47 <.0001
Error 245 1.977E15 8.069E12
UncorrectedTotal 250 8.268E15
Root MSE 2840569.91 R-Square 0.76828
Dependent Mean 4267716.82 Adj R-Sq 0.76356
CoeffVar 66.55948
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label
HKT 1 225.3152 141.1018 1.60 0.1116 HargaKacngTnh(Rp/Kg)
PNL 1 -0.18535 0.074212 -2.50 0.0132 PndapatnNUtLain (Rp )
PUKT 1 -0.11844 0.157170 -0.75 0.4518 PndapatnUtKdlTtl(Rp)
TAB 1 0.421136 0.044515 9.46 <.0001 Tabungan (Rp)
KRE 1 4.800250 0.765457 6.27 <.0001 KreditPertanian(Rp)
Durbin-Watson 1.700394
Nu mber of Observations 250
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.144237

Model PNL
Dependent Variable PNL
Label PndapatnNUtLain (Rp )
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F
Model 7 6.395E15 9.135E14 81.38 <.0001
Error 243 2.728E15 1.123E13
UncorrectedTotal 250 1.027E16
Root MSE 3350491.76 R-Square 0.70098
Dependent Mean 4751787.20 Adj R-Sq 0.69237
CoeffVar 70.51014
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label
HTp 1 1683.705 302.0322 5.57 <.0001 HargaTempe(Rp/0.5Kg)
HTI 1 0.481391 0.694317 0.69 0.4888 Hrg Rata2Tnk/Ikan(Rp)
AT 1 0.005364 0.006305 0.85 0.3958 Asset Total (Rp)
PNK 1 -0.33056 0.132951 -2.49 0.0136 PndapatnNonKdl (Rp)
PUKT 1 -0.47292 0.211564 -2.24 0.0263 PndapatnUtKdlTtl(Rp)
TAB 1 0.426002 0.070642 6.03 <.0001 Tabungan (Rp)
KRE 1 1.616235 1.205117 1.34 0.1811 KreditPertanian(Rp)
Durbin-Watson 1.998463
Nu mber of Observations 250
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.00688
 211

Model KPT
Dependent Variable KPT
Label KonsumsiPngTunai(Rp)
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F
Model 5 7.168E10 1.434E10 33.09 <.0001
Error 244 1.057E11 4.3325E8
Corrected Total 249 1.678E11
Root MSE 20814.7596 R-Square 0.40407
Dependent Mean 25458.5600 Adj R-Sq 0.39186
CoeffVar 81.75938
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label
Intercept 1 15819.43 7394.888 2.14 0.0334 Intercept
HJ 1 -7.51611 4.704050 -1.60 0.1114 HargaJagung (Rp/Kg)
AK 1 1583.559 1078.094 1.47 0.1432 AnggotaKlrg (Orang)
KK 1 376.3395 48.47550 7.76 <.0001 KonsumsiKedelai(Kg)
KNP 1 -0.00304 0.001079 -2.82 0.0052 KonsumsiNonPngn(Rp)
KRE 1 0.015452 0.006903 2.24 0.0261 KreditPertanian(Rp)
Durbin-Watson 1.520251
Nu mber of Observations 250
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.232679

Model KNP
Dependent Variable KNP
Label KonsumsiNonPngn(Rp)
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F
Model 5 8.858E15 1.772E15 1408.68 <.0001
Error 245 3.081E14 1.258E12
UncorrectedTotal 250 9.717E15
Root MSE 1121449.96 R-Square 0.96638
Dependent Mean 5785780.00 Adj R-Sq 0.96570
CoeffVar 19.38287
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label
UM 1 15917.22 4620.937 3.44 0.0007 UmurPetani (Th )
AK 1 211566.5 51044.27 4.14 <.0001 AnggotaKlrg (Orang)
KPT 1 -7.00978 3.899695 -1.80 0.0735 KonsumsiPngTunai(Rp)
PNL 1 0.062295 0.027446 2.27 0.0241 PndapatnNUtLain (Rp )
KT 1 0.488622 0.030000 16.29 <.0001 KonsumsiRT.Total(Rp)
Durbin-Watson 1.917981
Nu mber of Observations 250
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.037948
212

Model IE
Dependent Variable IE
Label InvestasiPdidikn(Rp)
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F
Model 11 7.112E11 6.466E10 51.32 <.0001
Error 238 2.999E11 1.2599E9
Corrected Total 249 2.627E12
Root MSE 35495.2215 R-Square 0.70343
Dependent Mean 64235.4000 Adj R-Sq 0.68972
CoeffVar 55.25804
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label
Intercept 1 -74899.8 21011.88 -3.56 0.0004 Intercept
HK 1 11.02389 4.088518 2.70 0.0075 HargaKedelai(Rp/Kg )
HS 1 17.55448 21.90169 0.80 0.4236 HargaSingkong(Rp/Kg)
HU 1 11.21535 18.58377 0.60 0.5467 HargaUb iJalar(Rp/Kg)
HTI 1 0.004974 0.007300 0.68 0.4963 Hrg Rata2Tnk/Ikan(Rp)
HHK 1 1.106450 2.074445 0.53 0.5943 Hrg Rata2HslKebun(Rp)
UM 1 179.7959 229.3207 0.78 0.4338 UmurPetani (Th )
ED 1 1094.343 838.6213 1.30 0.1932 Lama Pendidikan (Th)
AK 1 1392.739 1790.101 0.78 0.4373 AnggotaKlrg (Orang)
IP 1 -0.81980 0.045379 -18.07 <.0001 InvestasiProPert(Rp)
PNL 1 0.000898 0.000963 0.93 0.3524 PndapatnNUtLain (Rp )
INV 1 0.817995 0.045067 18.15 <.0001 InvestasiRT.Ttl(Rp)
Durbin-Watson 2.02147
Nu mber of Observations 250
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.01207

Model IH
Dependent Variable IH
Label InvestasiKsehatn(Rp)
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F
Model 5 2.345E10 4.6892E9 3.67 0.0032
Error 244 3.121E11 1.2793E9
Corrected Total 249 3.973E11
Root MSE 35766.6412 R-Square 0.06987
Dependent Mean 27338.0000 Adj R-Sq 0.05081
CoeffVar 130.83123
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label
Intercept 1 -18268.7 21241.87 -0.86 0.3906 Intercept
HG 1 17.95468 16.37675 1.10 0.2740 HargaGabahKP(Rp/Kg)
HTh 1 4.569207 5.578002 0.82 0.4135 HargaTahu(Rp/0.5Kg)
IP 1 -0.11150 0.041650 -2.68 0.0079 InvestasiProPert(Rp)
KRE 1 0.016546 0.009100 1.82 0.0703 KreditPertanian(Rp)
INV 1 0.111192 0.041353 2.69 0.0077 InvestasiRT.Ttl(Rp)
Durbin-Watson 1.94772
Nu mber of Observations 250
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.02582
 213

Model IP
Dependent Variable IP
Label InvestasiProPert(Rp)
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F
Model 4 3.986E14 9.965E13 19.86 <.0001
Error 246 1.234E15 5.017E12
UncorrectedTotal 250 1.624E15
Root MSE 2239873.41 R-Square 0.24413
Dependent Mean 668290.000 Adj R-Sq 0.23184
CoeffVar 335.16489
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label
AT 1 0.007940 0.004378 1.81 0.0710 Asset Total (Rp)
IS 1 -3.70737 2.469641 -1.50 0.1346 InvestasiSmbrDy(Rp)
PRO 1 336.1520 281.6674 1.19 0.2338 ProduksiKedelai(Kg)
PRT 1 0.042096 0.030789 1.37 0.1728 PendapatanRT.Ttl(Rp)
Durbin-Watson 1.895376
Nu mber of Observations 250
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.11819

Model TAB
Dependent Variable TAB
Label Tabungan (Rp)
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F
Model 3 9.633E15 3.211E15 116.28 <.0001
Error 247 6.821E15 2.761E13
UncorrectedTotal 250 2.023E16
Root MSE 5254943.72 R-Square 0.58545
Dependent Mean 4407145.48 Adj R-Sq 0.58042
CoeffVar 119.23690
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label
SB 1 -103469 29648.50 -3.49 0.0006 SukuBungaKred it(%/T)
HTI 1 1.177352 0.982198 1.20 0.2318 Hrg Rata2Tnk/Ikan(Rp)
PD 1 0.690053 0.060566 11.39 <.0001 PndptnDisposable(Rp )
Durbin-Watson 1.718713
Nu mber of Observations 250
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.129546
214

Model KRE
Dependent Variable KRE
Label KreditPertanian(Rp)
Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F
Model 8 9.367E13 1.171E13 74.06 <.0001
Error 242 3.826E13 1.581E11
UncorrectedTotal 250 1.305E14
Root MSE 397627.951 R-Square 0.71000
Dependent Mean 556787.500 Adj R-Sq 0.70041
CoeffVar 71.41467
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> |t | Label
SB 1 11827.49 3537.559 3.34 0.0010 SukuBungaKred it(%/T)
HPU 1 -175.960 107.4666 -1.64 0.1029 HargaPpk.Urea(Rp/Kg)
HO 1 -2.06696 1.102620 -1.87 0.0621 HrgObat/Pest(Rp/Lt )
JPH 1 52.14107 38.05726 1.37 0.1719 JmlhPHijau/Kdng(Kg )
TAB 1 0.004139 0.005591 0.74 0.4598 Tabungan (Rp)
JB 1 4173.824 1103.497 3.78 0.0002 Jmlh BenihKedelai(Kg)
KT 1 0.047838 0.010441 4.58 <.0001 KonsumsiRT.Total(Rp)
IH 1 2.799003 1.566713 1.79 0.0753 InvestasiKsehatn(Rp)
Durbin-Watson 1.750627
Nu mber of Observations 250
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.123013
LAMPIRAN 3. Program Validasi Model EkonomiRumahtangga
PetaniKedelaidenganMetodeSolusi Newton

Options NoDateNoNu mberNo Center;

Data DELE;
Set SatuDuaTigaEmpat Lima EnamTu juhDelapan Semb ilan;
Merge SatuDuaTigaEmpat Lima EnamTu juhDelapan Semb ilan;
BS = (JB* HB)+((JPU*HPU)+(JPS* HPS)+(JPK* HPK))+((JO*HO)+(JZ* HZ)+(JR* HR));
BTK = (TKLK)*(UTKL);
PUK = (PRO)*(HK);
PUKT = PUK - BS - BTK;
PKp = (PRO)/(LAP);
Hkpu = (Hk/Hpu);
Hkps = (Hk/Hps);
Hkp k = (Hk/Hpk);
If DA>0 Then DA =1; Else DA=0;
If DI>0 Then DI=1; Else DI=0;
If DG>0 Then DG=1; Else DG=0;
If DS>0 Then DS=1; Else DS=0;
Label DA = Du mmyArea "MilikSdr=1"
DI = Du mmyIrigasi"Teknis=1"
DG = Du mmy Gender "Laki2=1"
DS = Du mmySkill "TamatSD=1"
Hkpu = RasioHgKd l/HgPUrea
Hkps = RasioHgKd l/HgPSpTsp
Hkp k = RasioHgKd l/HgPKclZa
BS = BiayaSaranaProd(Rp)
BTK = BiayaTenagaKerja(Rp)
PUK = PenerimaanUt.Kd l(Rp)
PUKT = PndapatnUtKdlTtl(Rp)
PKp = ProdtvtKdlPnn(Kg/Ha);
;
Title04 Prosedur SIMNLIN ProSA S 13022012 UT31012012 by:RMS;
Proc SIMNLIN Data=DELE Type=N2SLS Newton MaxIter=50 Converge=1E-8
Simu late Stats Out=KedeleOutactualOutpredictTheilNoprint ;
Endogenous LAP PRO JB JPU JPS JPK JO JZ
JR TKDK TKLK TKDN TKDL PNK PNL KPT
KNP IE IH IP TAB KRE TKK TKD
TKL TK CK BS BTK BUK PUK PUKT
PRT PD KT IS INV BRT KJ PKp ;
Exogenous HK HG HJ HS HU HKT HKH HB
HPU HPS HPK HO HZ HR HTp HTh
HTI HHK UTKL UM ED AKK AK AT
SB PBB KL KK TKLN TKLL CKL JPH
DA DI DG DS Hkpu Hkps Hkp k ;
Parms
a0 0.066704 a1 0.000072 a2 -0.00022 a3 -0.00002 a4 -0.00017
a5 2.55E-9 a6 0.010007 a7 0.002492 a8 1.66E-8
b0 1168.302 b 1 -0.17114 b2 -0.19309 b3 -0.00246 b4 -0.09223
b5 250.1141 b 6 0.000458 b7 0.000274
c0 50.34381 c1 -0.00579 c2 -0.00019 c3 -0.00634 c4 20.97170
c5 7.06E-6 c6 6.546E-6
d0 73.23491 d 1 10.53485 d2 -0.01359 d3 -0.00050 d4 -0.00055
d5 0.004604 d 6 4.236E-6 d7 1.128E-6 d8 7.359E-6
216

e0 -0.66949 e1 11.86229 e2 -0.00573 e3 -0.00035 e4 4.111293

e5 13.69883 e6 0.131396 e7 2.203E-6
f0 8.786600 f1 1.353340 f2 -0.00254 f3 -0.00006 f4 -0.00014
f5 0.001978 f6 9.972467 f7 2.379E-6 f8 3.465E-6
g0 3.927157 g 1 -0.00002 g2 -0.00032 g3 -7.82E-6 g 4 -0.00033
g5 0.000081 g 6 0.271045 g7 8.193E-8 g 8 3.326E-7
h0 3.282425 h 1 -0.00003 h2 -0.00023 h3 -0.00001 h4 -0.00032
h5 2.112E-7 h6 2.826E-7
i0 3.610284 i1 -0.00015 i2 -0.00014 i3 -0.00126 i4 -8.4E-6
i5 -5.03E-6 i6 0.000429 i7 1.228472 i8 4.458E-8
j0 93.41927 j1 -0.00141 j2 -0.75052 j3 -3.66962 j4 5.591721
j5 23.91475 j6 29.65159 j7 0.384268 j8 1.367E-6
k0 173.6533 k1 -0.00545 k2 -0.38456 k3 -1.49175 k4 25.28731
k5 -0.09211 k6 1.173357 k7 5.371E-6
l0 90.92766 l1 -0.00237 l2 0.008825 l3 3.764380 l4 -0.08005
l5 9.348E-6 l6 1.353E-6
m0 115.1008 m1 -0.00112 m2 -0.63897 m3 -4.06150 m4 -0.09087
m5 0.000014 m6 5.206E-6
n1 225.3152 n 2 -0.18535 n3 -0.11844 n4 0.421136 n 5 4.800250
o1 1683.705 o 2 0.481391 o3 0.005364 o4 -0.33056 o 5 -0.47292
o6 0.426002 o 7 1.616235
p0 15819.43 p 1 -7.51611 p2 1583.559 p3 376.3395 p 4 -0.00304
p5 0.015452
q1 15917.22 q 2 211566.5 q 3 -7.00978 q4 0.062295 q 5 0.488622
r0 -74899.8 r1 11.02389 r2 17.55448 r3 11.21535 r4 0.004974
r5 1.106450 r6 179.7959 r7 1094.343 r8 1392.739 r9 -0.81980
r10 0.000898 r11 0.817995
s0 -18268.7 s1 17.95468 s2 4.569207 s3 -0.11150 s4 0.016546
s5 0.111192
t1 0.007940 t 2 -3.70737 t 3 336.1520 t4 0.042096
u1 -103469 u2 1.177352 u3 0.690053
v1 11827.49 v 2 -175.960 v3 -2.06696 v4 52.14107 v5 0.004139
v6 4173.824 v 7 0.047838 v8 2.799003 ;
;
LAP = a0 +a1*HK +a2* HJ +a3*hkh +a4*hpu +a5*AT +a6*JB +a7*TKDK +a8*PRT;
PRO = b0 +b1* HB +b 2*hps +b3*HZ +b4*HR +b5* LAP +b6* KRE +b7*PUK;
JB = c0 +c1*HB +c2*HZ +c3* HR +c4* LAP +c5* KRE +c6*PUK;
JPU = d0 +d1* (HK/HPU) +d 2*HB +d3* HO +d4* HZ +d5*jph +d6*PNK +d7*pnl +d8*PUK;
JPS = e0 +e1*(HK/ HPS) +e2* HB +e3*HZ +e4*da +e5*LAP +e6*TKLK +e7*PNK;
JPK = f0 +f1*(hk/hpk) +f2*hb +f3*HO +f4*h z +f5*jph +f6* lap +f7*PNK +f8*PUK;
JO = g0 +g1* HO +g 2*HB +g3*hz +g4* HR +g 5*jph +g 6*di +g7*PNK +g 8*PUK;
JZ = h0 +h1* HZ +h2*hb +h3* HO +h4* HR +h 5*PNK +h6*PUK;
JR = i0 +i1* HR +i2*hb +i3*hpu +i4*HO +i5*hz +i6*JPH +i7* LAP +i8*prt;
TKDK = j0 +j1*utkl +j2*UM +j3*ED +j4*AKK +j5*DG +j6* LAP +j7*JPS +j8*TA B;
TKLK = k0 + k1*UTKL +k2*u m +k3*ed +k4*DS +k5*t kdl +k6*JPS +k7*PUK;
TKDN = l0 +l1*utkl +l2*hk +l3*akk +l4*tklk +l5*PNK +l6*tab;
TKDL = m0 +m1*utkl +m2*UM +m3* ED +m4*tklk +m5*PNL +m6*PUKT;
PNK = n1* HKT +n2* PNL +n 3*pukt +n4*TAB +n 5*KRE;
PNL = o1* HTP +o2*hti +o3*at +o 4*PNK +o5*PUKT +o6*TAB +o 7*KRE;
KPT = p0 +p1* HJ +p2*AK +p3* KK +p4* KNP +p5*KRE;
KNP = q1* UM +q 2*AK +q 3*KPT +q 4*PNL +q 5*KT;
IE = r0 +r1*HK +r2*hs +r3*hu +r4*hti +r5*hhk +r6*um +r7*ed +r8*ak +r9*IP +r10*pnl
+r11*INV;
IH = s0 +s1*hg +s2*hth +s3*IP +s4*KRE +s5*INV;
IP = t1*AT +t2*IS +t 3*pro +t4*PRT;
TAB = u1*SB +u2*hti +u3*PD;
KRE = v1*SB +v2* HPU +v3*HO +v4*JPH +v5*tab +v6*JB +v7* KT +v8*IH;
 217

;
TKK = TKDK + TKLK;
TKD = TKDK + TKDN + TKDL;
TKL = TKLK + TKLN + TKLL;
TK = TKD + TKL;
CK = TKD + CKL;
BS = (JB* HB)+((JPU*HPU)+(JPS* HPS)+(JPK* HPK))+((JO*HO)+(JZ* HZ)+(JR* HR));
BTK = (TKLK)*(UTKL);
BUK = BS + BTK;
PUK = (PRO)*(HK);
PUKT = PUK - BUK;
PRT = PUKT + PNK + PNL;
PD = PRT - PBB;
KT = KPT + KNP + KL;
IS = IE + IH;
INV = IS + IP;
BRT = KT + INV;
KJ = PRO - KK;
PKp = (PRO)/(LAP);
RUN;
LAMPIRAN 4. HasilValidasi Model EkonomiRumahtangga
PetaniKedelaidenganMetodeSolusi Newton

ProSAS 13022012 Ujian Terbuka 31012012 By: RMS.

The SIMNLIN Procedure - Simul taneous Simulation
Descripti ve Statistics
Actual Predicted
Vari able Nobs N Mean StdDev Mean StdDev Label

LAP 250 250 0.6598 0.6274 0.7867 2.2916 Luas Areal Panen(Ha)
PRO 250 250 853.10 959.90 1054.8 5454.2 ProduksiKedelai(Kg)
JB 250 250 31.928 30.387 38.535 161.30 Jmlh BenihKedelai(Kg)
JPU 250 250 49.224 58.287 56.327 155.80 JmlhPupuk Urea (Kg)
JPS 250 250 35.416 40.037 39.583 73.674 JmlhPp k.Sp 36/Tsp(Kg)
JPK 250 250 20.212 31.308 25.062 100.10 JmlhPp k.Kcl/Za (Kg )
JO 250 250 1.2156 1.7866 1.4669 6.1802 Jmlh Obat/Pestsd(Lt)
JZ 250 250 1.1864 2.1462 1.6732 6.4668 Jumlah ZPT/Ppc (Lt)
JR 250 250 1.9520 1.8750 2.1468 3.7367 Jmlh Rhizo+ (Sachet)
TKDK 250 250 102.50 66.005 109.60 115.20 TK DlmKlrgKdl (HOK)
TKLK 250 250 160.80 75.748 168.50 169.60 TK LuarKlrgKd l(HOK)
TKDN 250 250 142.00 80.525 148.70 86.717 TKDlmKlgNonKdl(HOK)
TKDL 250 250 106.40 75.677 109.10 35.529 TKDlmKlgNUt Lain(HOK)
PNK 250 250 4267717 3862284 4870966 8629986 PndapatnNonKdl (Rp)
PNL 250 250 4751787 4311062 4979984 2491605 PndapatnNUtLain (Rp )
KPT 250 250 25459 25957 26020 21031 KonsumsiPngTunai(Rp)
KNP 250 250 5785780 2327017 5758605 1699883 KonsumsiNonPngn(Rp)
IE 250 250 64235 102722 61977 181797 InvestasiPdidikn(Rp)
IH 250 250 27338 39943 27461 34575 InvestasiKsehatn(Rp)
IP 250 250 668290 2464677 1064774 2539331 InvestasiProPert(Rp)
TAB 250 250 4407145 7857649 5680085 14214360 Tabungan (Rp)
KRE 250 250 556788 461375 586007 835539 KreditPertanian(Rp)
TKK 250 250 263.20 107.40 278.10 283.80 TenagaKerjaKdl(HOK)
TKD 250 250 350.90 162.30 367.40 231.50 TKDalamKeluarga(HOK)
TKL 250 250 397.50 138.70 405.20 203.80 TK LuarKeluarga(HOK)
TK 250 250 748.40 234.60 772.60 423.70 TenagaKerjaTtl(HOK)
CK 250 250 745.80 261.80 762.30 283.60 CurahKerjaTotal(HOK)
BS 250 250 333315 312840 400467 1469621 BiayaSaranaProd(Rp)
BTK 250 250 900822 471315 992536 1218663 BiayaTenagaKerja(Rp)
BUK 250 250 1234163 633164 1393003 2649050 BiayaUt.Kedelai(Rp)
PUK 250 250 1848492 2290849 2419060 16504283 Penerimaan Ut.Kd l(Rp)
PUKT 250 250 614355 1966327 1026057 13924625 PndapatnUtKdlTtl(Rp)
PRT 250 250 9633834 6937665 10877007 20529124 PendapatanRT.Ttl(Rp)
PD 250 250 9599719 6912464 10842893 20520707 PndptnDisposable(Rp )
KT 250 250 8056117 3216638 8029504 3089718 KonsumsiRT.Total(Rp)
IS 250 250 91573 114082 89438 214598 InvestasiSmbrDy(Rp)
INV 250 250 759863 2475576 1154212 2607414 InvestasiRT.Ttl(Rp)
BRT 250 250 8815980 4515198 9183716 4044894 PengeluaranRTTt l(Rp)
KJ 250 250 804.40 928.30 1006.1 5449.60 KdlJual/ SurplusP(Kg )
PKp 250 250 1292.96 800.90 1340.8 1393.47 ProdtvtKdlPnn(Kg/Ha)
220

The SIMNLIN Procedure - Simul taneous Simulation

Statistics of fi t
Mean Mean% MeanAbs MeanAbs RMS RMS%
Vari able N Error Error Error % Error Error Error

LAP 250 0.1269 16.101 0.8631 149.00 2.2164 341.00

PRO 250 201.70 60.580 1916.6 417.10 5426.1 1369.6
JB 250 6.6072 12.177 58.936 279.00 160.00 823.20
JPU 250 7.1032 641.50 72.751 1023.5 175.00 4953.6
JPS 250 4.1671 759.80 41.618 962.60 84.996 3160.8
JPK 250 4.8500 580.30 42.292 1426.3 104.50 4462.8
JO 250 0.2513 124.70 2.4656 325.00 6.6698 992.40
JZ 250 0.4868 710.00 2.8539 985.00 7.1362 4016.3
JR 250 0.1948 51.976 1.8707 113.60 4.1679 277.90
TKDK 250 7.1043 41.646 70.553 89.914 126.00 169.30
TKLK 250 7.7146 40.774 91.337 80.653 180.90 272.70
TKDN 250 6.7204 53.525 77.096 86.999 108.00 144.20
TKDL 250 2.6469 191.90 63.375 223.80 77.674 542.90
PNK 250 603249 100.50 4479782 164.70 8547061 324.90
PNL 250 228197 144.00 3418043 187.40 4743953 395.10
KPT 250 561.50 73.091 14468 100.90 23853 207.50
KNP 250 27175 9.8962 1587527 30.093 2199270 41.973
IE 250 2258.0 632.40 139013 4039.4 186913 8405.5
IH 250 122.80 367.10 32583 464.30 53262 1320.2
IP 250 396484 848.10 1642665 1161.7 3539954 2167.3
TAB 250 1272939 89219 8367244 129712 15579921 3910.0
KRE 250 29220 2519.5 500758 2590.2 927786 1003.6
TKK 250 14.819 20.043 135.60 57.823 292.20 153.20
TKD 250 16.472 27.598 163.60 59.330 258.90 95.186
TKL 250 7.7146 6.3746 91.337 23.932 180.90 43.677
TK 250 24.186 7.8368 214.00 28.746 409.60 49.162
CK 250 16.472 7.3635 163.60 23.545 258.90 36.340
BS 250 67152 32.416 559161 198.80 1509476 504.20
BTK 250 91713 40.774 544562 80.653 1250789 272.70
BUK 250 158840 28.914 1020731 88.680 2679959 236.40
PUK 250 570568 60.580 5314639 417.10 16413444 1370.0
PUKT 250 411703 61.381 4464397 2087.7 13838743 1184.0
PRT 250 1243174 47.151 9205839 112.30 20283226 229.10
PD 250 1243174 47.454 9205839 112.90 20283226 230.20
KT 250 26613 4.2026 1585816 20.810 2196402 27.508
IS 250 2135.2 148.60 162822 621.30 223528 1745.4
INV 250 394349 439.00 1601239 618.00 3561434 1030.9
BRT 250 367735 12.431 2428880 28.747 3965284 39.858
KJ 250 201.70 90.167 1916.6 478.00 5426.1 1647.9
PKp 250 1367.9 56.707 3563.9 461.20 25965 3132.6
 221

The SIMNLIN Procedure - Simul taneous Simulation

Theil Forecast Error Statistics
MS E Decomposition Proporti ons
Corr Bi as RegDistVarCovarInequalCoef
Vari able N MS E (R) (UM) (UR) (UD) (US) (UC) U1 U

LAP 250 4.9125 0.25 0.00 0.92 0.07 0.56 0.44 2.4367 0.6660
PRO 250 29443042 0.11 0.00 0.97 0.03 0.68 0.32 4.2300 0.7948
JB 250 25593 0.13 0.00 0.96 0.04 0.67 0.33 3.6330 0.7633
JPU 250 30611 0.17 0.00 0.89 0.11 0.31 0.69 2.2960 0.7242
JPS 250 7224.4 0.03 0.00 0.78 0.22 0.16 0.84 1.5919 0.6209
JPK 250 10917 0.01 0.00 0.91 0.09 0.43 0.57 2.8078 0.7453
JO 250 44.486 0.15 0.00 0.93 0.07 0.43 0.57 3.0908 0.7849
JZ 250 50.925 0.16 0.00 0.91 0.09 0.37 0.63 2.9145 0.7828
JR 250 17.372 0.01 0.00 0.80 0.20 0.20 0.80 1.5413 0.5948
TKDK 250 15871 0.12 0.00 0.73 0.27 0.15 0.84 1.0340 0.4488
TKLK 250 32715 0.07 0.00 0.82 0.17 0.27 0.73 1.0182 0.4343
TKDN 250 11661 0.17 0.00 0.46 0.54 0.00 0.99 0.6618 0.3221
TKDL 250 6033.3 0.17 0.00 0.08 0.92 0.27 0.73 0.5953 0.3168
PNK 250 7.31E13 0.25 0.00 0.80 0.19 0.31 0.69 1.4863 0.5463
PNL 250 2.25E13 0.10 0.00 0.18 0.81 0.15 0.85 0.7401 0.3961
KPT 250 5.69E8 0.50 0.00 0.11 0.89 0.04 0.96 0.6567 0.3420
KNP 250 4.84E12 0.44 0.00 0.10 0.90 0.08 0.92 0.3528 0.1797
IE 250 3.49E10 0.23 0.00 0.71 0.29 0.18 0.82 1.5450 0.5977
IH 250 2.84E9 0.02 0.00 0.44 0.56 0.01 0.99 1.1019 0.5762
IP 250 1.25E13 0.01 0.01 0.50 0.48 0.00 0.99 1.3888 0.6682
TAB 250 2.43E14 0.10 0.01 0.74 0.25 0.17 0.83 1.7320 0.6418
KRE 250 8.61E11 0.06 0.00 0.75 0.25 0.16 0.84 1.2841 0.5327
TKK 250 85400 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.13 0.36 0.63 1.0282 0.4290
TKD 250 67015 0.17 0.00 0.62 0.38 0.07 0.92 0.6698 0.3155
TKL 250 32715 0.50 0.00 0.56 0.44 0.13 0.87 0.4298 0.2069
TK 250 167782 0.34 0.00 0.71 0.29 0.21 0.78 0.5224 0.2460
CK 250 67015 0.55 0.00 0.29 0.71 0.01 0.99 0.3276 0.1615
BS 250 2.28E12 0.03 0.00 0.96 0.04 0.58 0.41 3.3052 0.7635
BTK 250 1.56E12 0.13 0.01 0.86 0.14 0.36 0.64 1.2308 0.4837
BUK 250 7.18E12 0.07 0.00 0.94 0.06 0.56 0.43 1.9329 0.6126
PUK 250 2.69E14 0.10 0.00 0.98 0.02 0.75 0.25 5.5827 0.8379
PUKT 250 1.92E14 0.10 0.00 0.98 0.02 0.74 0.26 6.7299 0.8654
PRT 250 4.11E14 0.20 0.00 0.88 0.11 0.45 0.55 1.7097 0.5785
PD 250 4.11E14 0.20 0.00 0.89 0.11 0.45 0.55 1.7158 0.5796
KT 250 4.82E12 0.76 0.00 0.09 0.91 0.00 1.00 0.2533 0.1272
IS 250 4.99E10 0.18 0.00 0.75 0.25 0.20 0.80 1.5299 0.5910
INV 250 1.27E13 0.03 0.01 0.51 0.48 0.00 0.99 1.3778 0.6557
BRT 250 1.57E13 0.58 0.01 0.13 0.86 0.01 0.98 0.4005 0.1989
KJ 250 29443042 0.10 0.00 0.97 0.03 0.69 0.31 4.4226 0.8029
PKp 250 6.74E8 0.02 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.94 0.06 16.615 0.9444
LAMPIRAN 5. Program SimulasiKebijakan Model Ekonomi
RumahtanggaPetaniKedelai

Options NoDateNoNu mberNo Center;

Data DELE;
Set SatuDuaTigaEmpat Lima EnamTu juhDelapan Semb ilan;
Merge SatuDuaTigaEmpat Lima EnamTu juhDelapan Semb ilan;
BS = (JB* HB)+((JPU*HPU)+(JPS* HPS)+(JPK* HPK))+((JO*HO)+(JZ* HZ)+(JR* HR));
BTK = (TKLK)*(UTKL);
PUK = (PRO)*(HK);
PUKT = PUK - BS - BTK;
PKp = (PRO)/(LAP);
Hkpu = (Hk/Hpu);
Hkps = (Hk/Hps);
Hkp k = (Hk/Hpk);
If DA>0 Then DA =1; Else DA=0;
If DI>0 Then DI=1; Else DI=0;
If DG>0 Then DG=1; Else DG=0;
If DS>0 Then DS=1; Else DS=0;
Label DA = Du mmyArea "MilikSdr=1"
DI = Du mmyIrigasi"Teknis=1"
DG = Du mmy Gender "Laki2=1"
DS = Du mmySkill "TamatSD=1"
Hkpu = RasioHgKd l/HgPUrea
Hkps = RasioHgKd l/HgPSpTsp
Hkp k = RasioHgKd l/HgPKclZa
BS = BiayaSaranaProd(Rp)
BTK = BiayaTenagaKerja(Rp)
PUK = PenerimaanUt.Kd l(Rp)
PUKT = PndapatnUtKdlTtl(Rp)
PKp = ProdtvtKdlPnn(Kg/Ha);
;
Title03 KenaikanHargaKedelai25.0% ;
HK = (1.25* HK);
RUN;
;
Title04 Prosedur SIMNLIN ProSA S 13022012 UT31012012 by: RM S;
Proc SIMNLIN Data=DELE Type=N2SLS Newton MaxIter=50 Converge=1E-8
Simu late Stats Out=KedeleOutactualOutpredictTheilNoprint ;
Endogenous LAP PRO JB JPU JPS JPK JO JZ
JR TKDK TKLK TKDN TKDL PNK PNL KPT
KNP IE IH IP TAB KRE TKK TKD
TKL TK CK BS BTK BUK PUK PUKT
PRT PD KT IS INV BRT KJ PKp ;
Exogenous HK HG HJ HS HU HKT HKH HB
HPU HPS HPK HO HZ HR HTp HTh
HTI HHK UTKL UM ED AKK AK AT
SB PBB KL KK TKLN TKLL CKL JPH
DA DI DG DS Hkpu Hkps Hkp k ;
Parms
a0 0.066704 a1 0.000072 a2 -0.00022 a3 -0.00002 a4 -0.00017
a5 2.55E-9 a6 0.010007 a7 0.002492 a8 1.66E-8
b0 1168.302 b 1 -0.17114 b2 -0.19309 b3 -0.00246 b4 -0.09223
b5 250.1141 b 6 0.000458 b7 0.000274
224

c0 50.34381 c1 -0.00579 c2 -0.00019 c3 -0.00634 c4 20.97170

c5 7.06E-6 c6 6.546E-6
d0 73.23491 d 1 10.53485 d2 -0.01359 d3 -0.00050 d4 -0.00055
d5 0.004604 d 6 4.236E-6 d7 1.128E-6 d8 7.359E-6
e0 -0.66949 e1 11.86229 e2 -0.00573 e3 -0.00035 e4 4.111293
e5 13.69883 e6 0.131396 e7 2.203E-6
f0 8.786600 f1 1.353340 f2 -0.00254 f3 -0.00006 f4 -0.00014
f5 0.001978 f6 9.972467 f7 2.379E-6 f8 3.465E-6
g0 3.927157 g 1 -0.00002 g2 -0.00032 g3 -7.82E-6 g 4 -0.00033
g5 0.000081 g 6 0.271045 g7 8.193E-8 g 8 3.326E-7
h0 3.282425 h 1 -0.00003 h2 -0.00023 h3 -0.00001 h4 -0.00032
h5 2.112E-7 h6 2.826E-7
i0 3.610284 i1 -0.00015 i2 -0.00014 i3 -0.00126 i4 -8.4E-6
i5 -5.03E-6 i6 0.000429 i7 1.228472 i8 4.458E-8
j0 93.41927 j1 -0.00141 j2 -0.75052 j3 -3.66962 j4 5.591721
j5 23.91475 j6 29.65159 j7 0.384268 j8 1.367E-6
k0 173.6533 k1 -0.00545 k2 -0.38456 k3 -1.49175 k4 25.28731
k5 -0.09211 k6 1.173357 k7 5.371E-6
l0 90.92766 l1 -0.00237 l2 0.008825 l3 3.764380 l4 -0.08005
l5 9.348E-6 l6 1.353E-6
m0 115.1008 m1 -0.00112 m2 -0.63897 m3 -4.06150 m4 -0.09087
m5 0.000014 m6 5.206E-6
n1 225.3152 n 2 -0.18535 n3 -0.11844 n4 0.421136 n 5 4.800250
o1 1683.705 o 2 0.481391 o3 0.005364 o4 -0.33056 o 5 -0.47292
o6 0.426002 o 7 1.616235
p0 15819.43 p 1 -7.51611 p2 1583.559 p3 376.3395 p 4 -0.00304
p5 0.015452
q1 15917.22 q 2 211566.5 q 3 -7.00978 q4 0.062295 q 5 0.488622
r0 -74899.8 r1 11.02389 r2 17.55448 r3 11.21535 r4 0.004974
r5 1.106450 r6 179.7959 r7 1094.343 r8 1392.739 r9 -0.81980
r10 0.000898 r11 0.817995
s0 -18268.7 s1 17.95468 s2 4.569207 s3 -0.11150 s4 0.016546
s5 0.111192
t1 0.007940 t 2 -3.70737 t 3 336.1520 t4 0.042096
u1 -103469 u2 1.177352 u3 0.690053
v1 11827.49 v 2 -175.960 v3 -2.06696 v4 52.14107 v5 0.004139
v6 4173.824 v 7 0.047838 v8 2.799003 ;
;
LAP = a0 +a1*HK +a2* HJ +a3*hkh +a4*hpu +a5*AT +a6*JB +a7*TKDK +a8*PRT;
PRO = b0 +b1* HB +b 2*hps +b3*HZ +b4*HR +b5* LAP +b6* KRE +b7*PUK;
JB = c0 +c1*HB +c2*HZ +c3* HR +c4* LAP +c5* KRE +c6*PUK;
JPU = d0 +d1* (HK/HPU) +d 2*HB +d3* HO +d4* HZ +d5*jph +d6*PNK +d7*pnl +d8*PUK;
JPS = e0 +e1*(HK/ HPS) +e2* HB +e3*HZ +e4*da +e5*LAP +e6*TKLK +e7*PNK;
JPK = f0 +f1*(hk/hpk) +f2*hb +f3*HO +f4*h z +f5*jph +f6* lap +f7*PNK +f8*PUK;
JO = g0 +g1* HO +g 2*HB +g3*hz +g4* HR +g 5*jph +g 6*di +g7*PNK +g 8*PUK;
JZ = h0 +h1* HZ +h2*hb +h3* HO +h4* HR +h 5*PNK +h6*PUK;
JR = i0 +i1* HR +i2*hb +i3*hpu +i4*HO +i5*hz +i6*JPH +i7* LAP +i8*prt;
TKDK = j0 +j1*utkl +j2*UM +j3*ED +j4*AKK +j5*DG +j6* LAP +j7*JPS +j8*TA B;
TKLK = k0 + k1*UTKL +k2*u m +k3*ed +k4*DS +k5*t kdl +k6*JPS +k7*PUK;
TKDN = l0 +l1*utkl +l2*hk +l3*akk +l4*tklk +l5*PNK +l6*tab;
TKDL = m0 +m1*utkl +m2*UM +m3* ED +m4*tklk +m5*PNL +m6*PUKT;
PNK = n1* HKT +n2* PNL +n 3*pukt +n4*TAB +n 5*KRE;
PNL = o1* HTP +o2*hti +o3*at +o 4*PNK +o5*PUKT +o6*TAB +o 7*KRE;
KPT = p0 +p1* HJ +p2*AK +p3* KK +p4* KNP +p5*KRE;
KNP = q1* UM +q 2*AK +q 3*KPT +q 4*PNL +q 5*KT;
IE = r0 +r1*HK +r2*hs +r3*hu +r4*hti +r5*hhk +r6*um +r7*ed +r8*ak +r9*IP +r10*pnl
+r11*INV;
 225

IH = s0 +s1*hg +s2*hth +s3*IP +s4*KRE +s5*INV;

IP = t1*AT +t2*IS +t 3*pro +t4*PRT;
TAB = u1*SB +u2*hti +u3*PD;
KRE = v1*SB +v2* HPU +v3*HO +v4*JPH +v5*tab +v6*JB +v7* KT +v8*IH;
;
TKK = TKDK + TKLK;
TKD = TKDK + TKDN + TKDL;
TKL = TKLK + TKLN + TKLL;
TK = TKD + TKL;
CK = TKD + CKL;
BS = (JB* HB)+((JPU*HPU)+(JPS* HPS)+(JPK* HPK))+((JO*HO)+(JZ* HZ)+(JR* HR));
BTK = (TKLK)*(UTKL);
BUK = BS + BTK;
PUK = (PRO)*(HK);
PUKT = PUK - BUK;
PRT = PUKT + PNK + PNL;
PD = PRT - PBB;
KT = KPT + KNP + KL;
IS = IE + IH;
INV = IS + IP;
BRT = KT + INV;
KJ = PRO - KK;
PKp = (PRO)/(LAP);
RUN;
;
LAMPIRAN 6. HasilSimulasiKebijakan Model Ekonomi
RumahtanggaPetaniKedelai

ProSAS 13022012 Ujian Terbuka 31012012 By: RMS.

KenaikanHargaKedelai 25.0%
The SIMNLIN Procedure - Simul taneous Simulation
Descripti ve Statistics
Actual Predicted
Vari able Nobs N Mean StdDev Mean StdDev Label

LAP 250 250 0.6598 0.6274 0.9866 1.9002 Luas Areal Panen(Ha)
PRO 250 250 853.10 959.90 1392.3 4617.7 ProduksiKedelai(Kg)
JB 250 250 31.928 30.387 49.260 137.10 Jmlh BenihKedelai(Kg)
JPU 250 250 49.224 58.287 71.533 132.10 JmlhPupuk Urea (Kg)
JPS 250 250 35.416 40.037 50.572 62.387 JmlhPp k.Sp 36/Tsp(Kg)
JPK 250 250 20.212 31.308 32.476 84.303 JmlhPp k.Kcl/Za (Kg )
JO 250 250 1.2156 1.7866 1.8308 5.3322 Jmlh Obat/Pestsd(Lt)
JZ 250 250 1.1864 2.1462 2.0912 5.5550 Jumlah ZPT/Ppc (Lt)
JR 250 250 1.9520 1.8750 2.4595 3.1993 Jmlh Rhizo+ (Sachet)
TKDK 250 250 102.50 66.005 121.20 97.898 TK DlmKlrgKdl (HOK)
TKLK 250 250 160.80 75.748 186.00 146.20 TK LuarKlrgKd l(HOK)
TKDN 250 250 142.00 80.525 160.70 73.589 TKDlmKlgNonKdl(HOK)
TKDL 250 250 106.40 75.677 111.00 32.591 TKDlmKlgNUt Lain(HOK)
PNK 250 250 4267717 3862284 5639699 7295401 PndapatnNonKdl (Rp)
PNL 250 250 4751787 4311062 4941169 2317412 PndapatnNUtLain (Rp )
KPT 250 250 25459 25957 27427 19092 KonsumsiPngTunai(Rp)
KNP 250 250 5785780 2327017 5735941 1689426 KonsumsiNonPngn(Rp)
IE 250 250 64235 102722 158433 192468 InvestasiPdidikn(Rp)
IH 250 250 27338 39943 41219 33196 InvestasiKsehatn(Rp)
IP 250 250 668290 2464677 833103 2197014 InvestasiProPert(Rp)
TAB 250 250 4407145 7857649 6720436 12118508 Tabungan (Rp)
KRE 250 250 556788 461375 672570 713618 KreditPertanian(Rp)
TKK 250 250 263.20 107.40 307.20 242.80 TenagaKerjaKdl(HOK)
TKD 250 250 350.90 162.30 392.80 197.30 TKDalamKeluarga(HOK)
TKL 250 250 397.50 138.70 422.70 169.30 TK LuarKeluarga(HOK)
TK 250 250 748.40 234.60 815.50 352.10 TenagaKerjaTtl(HOK)
CK 250 250 745.80 261.80 787.70 254.50 CurahKerjaTotal(HOK)
BS 250 250 333315 312840 492584 1242310 BiayaSaranaProd(Rp)
BTK 250 250 900822 471315 1027506 824959 BiayaTenagaKerja(Rp)
BUK 250 250 1234163 633164 1520090 2010115 BiayaUt.Kedelai(Rp)
PUK 250 250 1848492 2290849 3323869 13888710 Penerimaan Ut.Kd l(Rp)
PUKT 250 250 614355 1966327 1803779 11952441 PndapatnUtKdlTtl(Rp)
PRT 250 250 9633834 6937665 12384647 17443364 PendapatanRT.Ttl(Rp)
PD 250 250 9599719 6912464 12350533 17443431 PndptnDisposable(Rp )
KT 250 250 8056117 3216638 8008246 3082782 KonsumsiRT.Total(Rp)
IS 250 250 91573 114082 199652 223921 InvestasiSmbrDy(Rp)
INV 250 250 759863 2475576 1032755 2215133 InvestasiRT.Ttl(Rp)
BRT 250 250 8815980 4515198 9041001 3860070 PengeluaranRTTt l(Rp)
KJ 250 250 804.40 928.30 1343.6 4613.8 KdlJual/ SurplusP(Kg )
PKp 250 250 1292.97 800.90 1411.2 643.17 ProdtvtKdlPnn(Kg/Ha)
228

The SIMNLIN Procedure - Simul taneous Simulation

Statistics of fi t
Mean Mean% MeanAbs MeanAbs RMS RMS%
Vari able N Error Error Error % Error Error Error

LAP 250 0.3268 101.70 0.9734 202.50 1.9600 398.20

PRO 250 539.20 94.765 2125.4 408.50 4626.5 838.60
JB 250 17.332 96.245 64.914 286.80 135.90 545.80
JPU 250 22.309 661.00 77.3836 1224.0 147.70 6609.3
JPS 250 15.156 944.40 42.2357 1020.2 72.915 3964.3
JPK 250 12.264 1666.2 46.7804 2287.8 92.319 7369.8
JO 250 0.6152 153.70 2.7412 452.00 5.6807 1324.8
JZ 250 0.9048 832.60 3.0747 1368.3 6.0421 4416.5
JR 250 0.5075 81.374 2.0310 137.20 3.7255 288.10
TKDK 250 18.674 65.613 77.2205 101.00 116.90 158.30
TKLK 250 25.292 41.750 91.4560 72.902 157.90 131.10
TKDN 250 18.644 73.546 83.5082 101.70 109.20 174.60
TKDL 250 4.5550 215.10 66.1794 246.50 79.094 721.90
PNK 250 1371982 153.80 4908609 221.60 8343180 437.70
PNL 250 189382 142.90 3328475 186.10 4494840 389.40
KPT 250 1968.0 83.551 15101 112.90 23001 228.00
KNP 250 49839 9.2578 1573240 29.911 2149160 41.775
IE 250 94197 3642.1 164137 5259.3 215843 1154.7
IH 250 13881 562.00 36884 604.30 54218 1704.1
IP 250 164813 890.50 1772947 1373.8 3410452 2816.3
TAB 250 2313291 105149 8891633 132651 14815286 2999.7
KRE 250 115782 2426.0 497420 2714.8 805407 8926.7
TKK 250 43.966 31.539 149.00 61.445 258.80 102.40
TKD 250 41.874 42.389 181.00 69.084 255.30 114.50
TKL 250 25.292 12.942 91.456 27.143 157.90 52.444
TK 250 67.166 16.802 238.40 34.802 383.10 56.956
CK 250 41.873 12.105 181.00 26.359 255.30 37.117
BS 250 159269 95.778 628124 240.40 1287373 544.40
BTK 250 126684 41.750 522221 72.902 884598 131.10
BUK 250 285927 47.435 1078493 100.00 2079347 204.20
PUK 250 1475377 143.50 6245839 515.10 14040684 1051.4
PUKT 250 1189425 198.40 5259477 6885.7 12057083 4652.2
PRT 250 2750814 91.277 10266528 149.50 18918519 312.20
PD 250 2750814 91.894 10266528 150.40 18918519 313.90
KT 250 47871 3.7809 1573203 20.723 2148060 27.351
IS 250 108078 535.90 192006 718.30 253966 1588.6
INV 250 272892 502.40 1733011 743.00 3400502 1428.7
BRT 250 225021 11.471 2502897 29.899 3975379 45.905
KJ 250 539.20 101.10 2125.4 455.10 4626.5 949.20
PKp 250 2018.3 243.30 4302.8 534.40 1545.0 2217.9
 229

The SIMNLIN Procedure - Simul taneous Simulation

Theil Forecast Error Statistics
MS E Decomposition Proporti ons
Corr Bi as RegDistVarCovarInequalCoef
Vari able N MS E (R) (UM) (UR) (UD) (US) (UC) U1 U

LAP 250 3.8418 0.11 0.03 0.87 0.10 0.42 0.55 2.1549 0.6432
PRO 250 21404747 0.12 0.01 0.94 0.04 0.62 0.36 3.6066 0.7588
JB 250 18477 0.18 0.02 0.94 0.05 0.61 0.37 3.0869 0.7176
JPU 250 21801 0.04 0.02 0.82 0.16 0.25 0.73 1.9376 0.6528
JPS 250 5316.6 0.08 0.04 0.66 0.30 0.09 0.86 1.3656 0.5457
JPK 250 8522.9 0.06 0.02 0.87 0.11 0.33 0.65 2.4809 0.7247
JO 250 32.270 0.02 0.01 0.89 0.10 0.39 0.60 2.6325 0.7296
JZ 250 36.507 0.02 0.02 0.85 0.13 0.32 0.66 2.4677 0.7216
JR 250 13.879 0.01 0.02 0.73 0.25 0.13 0.86 1.3777 0.5532
TKDK 250 13671 0.04 0.03 0.66 0.32 0.07 0.90 0.9596 0.4214
TKLK 250 24947 0.12 0.03 0.75 0.23 0.20 0.78 0.8891 0.3814
TKDN 250 11917 0.02 0.03 0.43 0.54 0.00 0.97 0.6690 0.3212
TKDL 250 6255.9 0.11 0.00 0.10 0.90 0.30 0.70 0.6061 0.3214
PNK 250 6.96E13 0.00 0.03 0.76 0.21 0.17 0.80 1.4508 0.5577
PNL 250 2.02E13 0.19 0.00 0.11 0.88 0.20 0.80 0.7012 0.3788
KPT 250 5.29E8 0.52 0.01 0.06 0.93 0.09 0.90 0.6333 0.3299
KNP 250 4.62E12 0.46 0.00 0.08 0.92 0.09 0.91 0.3447 0.1760
IE 250 4.66E10 0.25 0.19 0.60 0.21 0.17 0.64 1.7841 0.5834
IH 250 2.94E9 0.02 0.07 0.39 0.54 0.02 0.92 1.1217 0.5356
IP 250 1.16E13 0.07 0.00 0.48 0.52 0.01 0.99 1.3380 0.6968
TAB 250 2.20E14 0.03 0.02 0.70 0.28 0.08 0.89 1.6470 0.6489
KRE 250 6.49E11 0.13 0.02 0.66 0.32 0.10 0.88 1.1147 0.4732
TKK 250 66984 0.10 0.03 0.80 0.17 0.27 0.70 0.9106 0.3831
TKD 250 65197 0.02 0.03 0.57 0.40 0.02 0.95 0.6607 0.3092
TKL 250 24947 0.50 0.03 0.40 0.58 0.04 0.94 0.3753 0.1803
TK 250 146764 0.22 0.03 0.61 0.36 0.09 0.88 0.4885 0.2291
CK 250 65197 0.52 0.03 0.21 0.76 0.00 0.97 0.3231 0.1578
BS 250 1.66E12 0.00 0.02 0.93 0.06 0.52 0.47 2.8188 0.7189
BTK 250 7.83E11 0.17 0.02 0.71 0.27 0.16 0.82 0.8705 0.3792
BUK 250 4.32E12 0.07 0.02 0.89 0.09 0.44 0.54 1.4997 0.5327
PUK 250 1.97E14 0.04 0.01 0.96 0.03 0.68 0.31 4.7757 0.8166
PUKT 250 1.45E14 0.05 0.01 0.96 0.03 0.68 0.31 5.8635 0.8539
PRT 250 3.58E14 0.00 0.02 0.84 0.13 0.31 0.67 1.5946 0.5694
PD 250 3.58E14 0.00 0.02 0.85 0.13 0.31 0.67 1.6004 0.5704
KT 250 4.61E12 0.77 0.00 0.08 0.92 0.00 1.00 0.2477 0.1245
IS 250 6.45E10 0.20 0.18 0.63 0.19 0.19 0.63 1.7382 0.5697
INV 250 1.16E13 0.05 0.01 0.47 0.53 0.01 0.99 1.3156 0.6767
BRT 250 1.58E13 0.56 0.00 0.11 0.88 0.03 0.97 0.4015 0.2015
KJ 250 21404747 0.11 0.01 0.95 0.04 0.63 0.35 3.7709 0.7681
PKp 250 2.39E8 0.01 0.02 0.98 0.00 0.88 0.10 9.8867 0.8974
LAMPIRAN 7. HasilAnalisisUsahataniKedelai di Indonesia

Dalam analisis usahatani kedelai, untuk menghitung nilai R/C atau rasio
antara produksi dan pengeluaran dalam persen, perlu diperhitungkan nilai
produksi, pendapatan, dan pengeluaran- nya, seperti terlihat pada Tabel 7.1.dan
Tabel 7.2. berikut ini. Jika produksi usahatani kedelai di Indonesia adalah 100%,
maka jumlah pendapatan mencapai 24.60%, dan pengeluaran-nya 75.40%,
sehingga diperoleh nilai R/C sebesar 1.33 (go-project), sesuai upa h tenaga-kerja
luar keluarga yang dibayarkan. Jika memperhitungkan upah tenaga-kerja dalam
keluarga, maka jumlah pendapatan mencapai 17.20%, dan pengeluaran-nya
82.80%, sehingga diperoleh nilai R/C sebesar 1.21 (go-project). Berdasarkan
analisis nilai R/C, maka usahatani kedelai untuk Kabupaten Garut dan Kabupaten
Ponorogo adalah tidak- layak (no-go- Project), dengan nilai R/C <1.

Tabel 7.1. Analisis Usahatani Kedelai di Indonesia Tahun 2001,

Berdasarkan Upah Tenaga Ke rja yang Dibayarkan (%)
Pengeluaran R/C
PETANI Pendapatan Benih Pestisida Pupuk Upah Biaya
TKLK Total
1.LampungTengah 41.1 4.8 4.4 8.3 11.9 29.5 1.70
2.Garut -13.7 6.0 6.2 24.4 33.2 44.0 0.88
3.Gunung-Kidul 39.2 5.8 4.7 10.8 13.2 26.3 1.64
4.Wonogiri 36.2 4.2 4.0 7.8 8.8 39.1 1.57
5.Ponorogo -21.6 8.4 11.0 28.0 28.4 45.8 0.82
6.Pasuruan 15.2 5.7 6.4 6.7 18.7 47.3 1.18
Indonesia 24.6 5.4 5.5 10.8 16.0 37.8 1.33

Tabel 7.2. Analisis Usahatani Kedelai di Indonesia Tahun 2001,

Berdasarkan Upah Tenaga Ke rja yang Diperhitungkan (%)
Pengeluaran R/C
Penda-
PETANI Benih Pesti- Pupuk Upah Upah Biaya
patan
sida TKDK TKLK Total
1.LampungTngh 31.9 4.8 4.4 8.3 9.2 11.9 29.5 1.47
2.Garut -27.2 6.0 6.2 24.4 13.4 33.2 44.0 0.79
3.Gunung-Kidul 31.0 5.8 4.7 10.8 8.3 13.2 26.3 1.45
4.Wonogiri 29.5 4.2 4.0 7.8 6.6 8.8 39.1 1.42
5.Ponorogo -34.5 8.4 11.0 28.0 12.9 28.4 45.8 0.74
6.Pasuruan 12.2 5.7 6.4 6.7 3.1 18.7 47.3 1.14
Indonesia 17.2 5.4 5.5 10.8 7.4 16.0 37.8 1.21
232

Pada Diagram 7.1. dan Diagram 7.2, nilai R/C usahatani kedelai di
Indonesia, berdasarkan upah tenaga kerja yang dibayarkan adalah 1.33, sedangkan
berdasarkan upah tenaga kerja yang diperhitungkan adalah 1.21.

Diagram 7.1. Nilai R/C Usahatani Kedelai di Indonesia Tahun 2001,

Berdasarkan Upah Tenaga Ke rja yang Dibaya rkan

Indonesia : R/C = 1.33

5,5
24,6 5,4
10,8

16,0
37,8

Benih Pestisida Pupuk Upah TKLk Biaya Pendapatan

Diagram 7.2. Nilai R/C Usahatani Kedelai di Indonesia Tahun 2001,

Berdas arkan Upah Tenaga -Kerja yang Diperhitungkan

Indonesia : R/C = 1.21

5,5
17,2 5,4
10,8

16,0
37,8 7,4

Benih Pestisida Pupuk Upah TKLk Upah TKDk Biaya Pendapatan

 233

Tabel 7.3. memperlihatkan status pemilikan dan type lahan di Indonesia,

berdasarkan skala usaha kecil (<=0.50 ha, sedang (0.51-0.99 ha), dan menengah
(>=1.00 ha). Luas areal tanam / panen mencapai 0.78 ha, dimana status lahan-
nya adalah lahan milik sendiri 0.64 ha dan lahan sakap / sewa 0.16 ha,
sedangkan type lahan-nya adalah lahan sawah irigasi 0.60 ha dan lahan tada h
hujan / tegal-pekarangan 0.20 ha.

Tabel 7.3. Status Pe milikan dan Type Lahan di Indonesia Tahun 2001
(Ha)
Petani Skala Luas LuasLhn LuasLhn LuasLhn LuasLhn
Usaha Areal Milik Sakap & Sawah TdhHjn&
Tanam Sendiri Sewa Irigasi Tgl/Pkrngn
(Ha) (Ha) (Ha) (Ha) (Ha) (Ha)
1.Lampung- <=0.5 0.43 0.34 0.11 0.39 0.07
Tengah 0.51-0.99 0.68 0.58 0.12 0.64 0.07
>=1.0 1.84 1.66 0.20 1.41 0.46
2.Garut <=0.5 0.32 0.22 0.11 0.02 0.33
0.51-0.99 0.67 0.44 0.26 0.02 0.68
>=1.0 1.21 0.95 0.28 0.09 1.15
3.Gunung- <=0.5 0.34 0.17 0.19 0.25 0.12
Kidul 0.51-0.99 0.77 0.54 0.25 0.63 0.18
>=1.0 1.59 1.37 0.24 1.10 0.52
4.Wonogiri <=0.5 0.39 0.31 0.09 0.40 0.02
0.51-0.99 0.73 0.56 0.19 0.74 0.02
>=1.0 1.25 1.13 0.14 1.26 0.02
5.Ponorogo <=0.5 0.29 0.21 0.09 0.26 0.06
0.51-0.99 0.71 0.58 0.15 0.61 0.13
>=1.0 1.21 0.79 0.43 1.04 0.20
6.Pasuruan <=0.5 0.34 0.32 0.04 0.35 0.02
0.51-0.99 0.71 0.55 0.18 0.72 0.02
>=1.0 2.25 1.94 0.33 2.26 0.02
Indonesia Rata-2 0.78 0.64 0.16 0.60 0.20
234

Untuk menghitung tenaga-kerja dalam dan luar keluarga, dapat diukur

dengan hari orang kerja perhari (HOK), sehingga diperlukan perhitungan jam
kerja pada usahatani kedelai, seperti terlihat pada Tabel 7.4. dan Tabel 7.5. berikut
ini. Lamanya jam kerja perhari untuk tenaga kerja dalam dan luar keluarga adalah
5.00 HOK dan 4.90 HOK.

Tabel 7.4. Jam Kerja Rata-Rata Tenaga Kerja Dalam Keluarga Usahatani
Kedelai di Indonesia Tahun 2001
Jam
PETANI Jam Kerja TKDK Jam Kerja
Laki2 Wani ta Anak2 Ternak TKDK Ratarata
1.Lampung-Tengah 7.2 7.2 7.1 3.7 6.3
2.Garut 5.4 5.4 5.3 0.0 4.0
3.Gunung-Kidul 5.1 5.1 4.9 2.5 4.4
4.Wonogiri 6.6 6.6 6.4 3.5 5.8
5.Ponorogo 4.4 4.4 4.3 2.4 3.9
6.Pasuruan 4.9 4.9 6.3 2.3 4.6
Indonesia 5.6 5.6 5.6 3.1 5.0

Tabel 7.5. Jam Kerja Rata-Rata Tenaga Kerja Luar Keluarga Usahatani
Kedelai di Indonesia Tahun 2001
Jam
PETANI Jam Kerja TKLK Jam Kerja
Laki2 Wani ta Anak2 Ternak TKLK Ratarata
1.Lampung-Tengah 7.2 7.2 7.9 3.7 6.5
2.Garut 5.4 5.4 5.5 2.7 4.8
3.Gunung-Kidul 5.1 5.1 4.7 2.5 4.3
4.Wonogiri 6.6 6.6 6.7 3.4 5.8
5.Ponorogo 4.4 4.4 4.3 2.3 3.8
6.Pasuruan 4.9 4.9 5.0 2.5 4.3
Indonesia 5.6 5.6 5.4 2.8 4.9
 235

Luas areal tanam / panen usahatani kedelai di Indonesia dapat digambarkan

seperti pada Diagram 7.3, dimana rata-rata-nya adalah seluas 0.78 ha. Kabupaten
terdiri dari: (1) LampungTenga h – Lampung, (2) Garut – Jawa Barat, (3)
GunungKidul – DIY, (4) Wonogiri – Jawa Tengah, (5) Ponorogo – Jawa Timur,
(6) Pasuruan – Jawa Timur, dan (7) Indonesia (jumlah total).

Diagram 7.3. Luas Areal Tanam/Panen Usahatani Kedelai di Indonesia

Tahun 2001 (Ha)
Luas Lahan Garapan Indonesia
(HA)

1,00

0,90

0,80

0,70

0,60

0,50

0,40

0,30

0,20

0,10

0,00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Kabupaten
LArTn LMlkS LSw/LSk LSwIr LTH/LTP