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Expected Time in Project Management - PERT & CPM - Formulas With Solved Example
Expected Time in Project Management - PERT & CPM - Formulas With Solved Example
The expected time is nothing but the pre-estimated time within which the Project is supposed to
get completed. This particular time is mutually agreed upon by the Parties or decided jointly in
presence of all the Stakeholders, Contractors & Clients while signing the Project Contract.
The milestone chart is better than the bar chart as bar charts will not show the interrelation
between the activities. But both the charts show the major activities only. If we keep on adding
the minor activities, it will prolong too long to understand. To overcome these difficulties, PERT
(Program Evaluation & Review Technique) & CPM (Critical Path Methods) are used.
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This technique is used when the time of activity is not certain. So, it's a probabilistic approach.
Let's understand this with an example. Simple construction activity takes for sure the 3 months
of duration. If we are constructing the same project in a hilly terrain region we cannot assure the
duration, due to the site difficulties which are unpredictable. In those cases, PERT is used. PERT
is usually used in research stations.
1. Optimistic completion of time (To): The time taken to complete the project, If everything
goes as per plan (1% of chance for this time).
2. Pessimistic completion of time (Tp): The time taken to complete the project, If nothing goes
as per plan (1% of chance for this time).
3. Most likely time (Tm): This is the Practical time, that a project would take to get completed.
In terms of distribution for a certain activity, if we plot these times over the frequency,
The past activities data is plotted over the curve, To, Tp occur very rarely. Most likely time (Tm)
occurred with more frequency.
Activities mostly follow the beta distribution. It may not be symmetric all the time, they would be
either left/right-skewed too. Based on these 3 estimates the expected time (Te) is determined.
The Standard Deviation = (Tp-To)/6, More is the Standard Deviation, more is the Uncertainty.
CPM is used in the construction/Industrial project where the activity times are certain. Laying
the foundation takes X duration of time for sure is a certainty, so we may analyse this under
CPM. This technique is deterministic in nature and Cost Optimization is given importance as the
time is already certain.
Early Start (ES): The earliest time when an activity can start
Early Finish (EF): The earliest time when an activity can finish
Late Start (LS): The latest time when an activity can start
Late Finish (LF): The latest time when an activity can finish
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Here TE represents the earliest expected time and TL represents the latest allowable Occurance
Time.
The Earliest given activity of duration 2 can be started is 8. ES=8. The Earliest given activity that
can be finished is 8+2 = 10. EF = 10
It's all about the basics related to PERT and CPM. Now, we will see some the majorly used terms
in Project Management while scheduling a project.
Timespan by which starting of an activity can be delayed from the early start, without delaying
the completion of the project.
For the given activity C, ES=6; EF=11; LS=14; LF = 18; activity duration=5. For the given activity
C, the latest activity can start is 6, and it cannot exceed 19 as the LF is 19 and the activity itself
takes a duration of 5. Therefore the Total float of C is.
Free float(FF)
Amount of time an activity can be delayed without delaying the ES of any following activity.
Okay, this is all for the blog. Solve the question below to understand the concept even more
perfectly.
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