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Solution Manual For Introduction To Probability 1St Edition Ward Gundlach 0716771098 9780716771098 Full Chapter PDF
Solution Manual For Introduction To Probability 1St Edition Ward Gundlach 0716771098 9780716771098 Full Chapter PDF
0716771098 9780716771098
Full Link Download:
https://testbankpack.com/p/solution-manual-for-introduction-to-probability-1st-edition-ward-
gundlach-0716771098-9780716771098/
Chapter 2. Probability
2.1 a. There are 330 blues songs out of 27,333. 330/27,333 = 0.0121 b. With 330 blues, 537 jazz,
and 8286 rock, we have (330 + 537 + 8286)/27,333 = 9153/27,333 = 0.3349. c. No, these types
of music are mutually exclusive. d. P ( AC ) = 1 – 9153/27,333 = 18,180/27,333 = 0.6651
2.2 There are 14 possible routes, 11 of which are not extreme. P(not extreme) = 11/14 = 0.7857.
2.5 a. The woman has 30 pairs of shoes. 13/30 = 0.4333 = 43.33% will make her taller.
b. 1 – 0.4333 = 0.5667 = 56.67% will not make her taller. c. Answers will vary. Shoes she could
wear to the beach (flip flops and sneakers), and ones she could not?
2.6 Because eight children do not like either, 22
children like lollypops, licorice, or both. 22 = LO+ LI
+ (LO LI) = 19 + 10 – (LO and LI). 22 = 29 –
P(LO LI), so 7/30 like both.
2.7 a. Answers will vary. b. Answers will vary. One possibility is S = {x | x 0}. c. Answers
will vary. One possibility might be drought = [0,12], normal = (12,30], flooding = [30, ) .
2.8 Because each flip has a 0.5 probability of being either a head or a tail, P (HHHHT) = (0.5)5
= 0.03125.
2.9 a. There were a total of 12 pizzas. Five had bacon (the two bacon and 3 meat lovers), so 5/12
= 0.4167. b. Nine had pepperoni (3 pepperoni, 3 sausage pepperoni, and 3 meat lovers), so 9/12
= 3/4 = 0.75. c. Six had sausage (3 sausage pepperoni and 3 meat lovers), so 6/12 = 0.5.
2.10 math + physics – (math and physics) = 100 = 60 + 75 – (math and physics) = 135 – (math
and physics), so the probability of a double major is 0.35.
2.11 Each letter has a 1/101 chance to be the correct one, so (1 / 101) 7 = 0.0001.
2.14 Note in the Venn diagram that the 35% who like
olives is made up of those who like olives but not
sausage and the 12% who like both. P (neither
sausage nor olives) = 1 – 0.77 = 0.23, or 23%.
2.18 With three dice, there are 6 6 6 6 6 = 65 = 7776 possible combinations. Six of these
(1, 1, 1, 1, 1) through (6, 6, 6, 6, 6) will have the same number. The desired probability is 6/7776
= 0.00077.
2.19 There are 2 possibilities for the first number, 10 for the second, and 46 for the third.
2 10 46 = 920 possible combinations.
2.22 P(A B C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) − P(AB) − P(AC) − P(B C) + P(AB C), so
0.48 = 0.17 + 0.37 + 0.19 – 0.07 – P ( A C) – 0.11 + 0.03. 0.48 = 0.58 – P ( A C) , giving P(
AC) = 0.10.
2.23
P( A B C ) c = 1 − ( P( A) + P( B ) + P(C ) − P( A B ) − P( A C ) − P( B C ) + P( A B C)).
P ( A B C)c = 1 – (0.20 + 0.10 + 0.40 – 0.05 – 0.10 – 0.03 + 0.1) = 1 – 0.53 = 0.47.
2.24 Proof:
P(A B C) = P(A(B C)) = P(A) + (P(B) + P(C) − P(B C)) − P(A(B C)) =
P(A) + P(B) + P(C) − P(B C) − P((AB) (AC)) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) − P(B C) −
P(A B) − P(AC)) + P(A B C) .
2.25 Proof:
P(A B C D) = P((AB C) D)) = P(AB C) + P(D) − P((AB C) D) =
P(A) + P(B) + P(C) + P(D) − P(B C) − P((AB) (AC)) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) −
P( B C ) − P( A B − P( A C )) + P( A B capC ) − P(( A B C ) D) =
P(A) + P(B) + P(C) + P(D) − P(B C) − P((AB) (AC)) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) −
P(B C) − P(AB) − P(AC)) + P(AB C) − P((AD) (B D) (C D) =
From here, continue as in the solution to Exercise 2.24 above.
2.26 This is an extension of the previous two exercises. You have proved this is true for i = 3
and 4 events; use mathematical induction.
2.28 Because each pen works 25% of the time (i.e., P (pen works) = 0.25 for all pens), P (one
that works within the first four) = 0.25 + 0.75(0.25) + 0.752 (0.25) + 0.753 (0.25) = 0.6836.
2.29 For the sum of the first two to equal the third, you must have (1,1,2), (1, 2,3), (2,1,3),
(1,3,4), (3,1,4), (2,2,4), ..., (1,5,6), (5,1,6), (2,4,6), (4,2,6), or (3,3,6). There are 15 possibilities,
so the probability is 15/216.
2.32 There are 22 total socks in the drawer. P (matching pair) = P (both white) + P (both black)
+ P (both red) + P (both purple) = (10/22)(9/21) + (6/22)(5/21) + (4/22)(3/21) + (2/22)(1/21) =
0.2900.
2.33 P ( B1 ) = 1 / 216 because this must be (1,1,1). P ( B2 ) = 8 / 216 because this must be (1,1,1),
(2,2,2), (1,2,2), (2,1,2), (2,2,1), (1,1,2), (1,2,1), or (2,1,1). For the maximum equal or less than 3,
we have the eight ways already found plus (3,3,3), (1,1,3), (1,3,1), (3,1,1), (1,3,3), (3,1,3),
(3,3,1), (3,2,2), (2,3,2), (2,2,3), (3,3,2), (3,2,3), (2,3,3). (1,2,3), (1,3,2), (2,1,3), (3,2,1), (3,1,2), or
(2,3,1). This makes P ( B1 ) = 27 / 216. In general, P ( Bk ) = ( k / 6) 3 .
2.34 This is a generalization of Exercise 2.27. It is true. Equality only holds if all the Ak are
disjoint.
2.35 Let Ag be the event that person g draws his/her number. The probability there is no winner
is the intersection N of the complement of this for all g. By the inclusion-exclusion principle, 1 −
P ( N ) = ( −1) k −1(1 / k !). So, P ( N ) = ( −1) k −1(1 / k !). (b) As n → , P ( N ) → e−1.
k 1 k 0
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From an open space, or square, several passages led into the
hills, affording admission to the cave dwellers’ abodes, which are all
of similar construction to that already mentioned. I was allotted
quarters in one of the caves, and stepped from the outer air into the
hill through a wooden gate on heavy hinges, and proceeded through
a long passage, cut in the rocks, a little over a man’s height. On
either side were excavated large stalls for horses, the covered way
ending in an open square court with perpendicular walls some thirty
feet high and about the same in width. From this court one steps into
symmetrical caves with vaulted roofs.
In the underground guest-chamber I stretched myself comfortably
on a couch covered with handsome carpets from Kairwan. A table
and some chairs completed the furniture of this room, specially set
apart for European guests. The Khalifa is rich, very rich, so that he
can permit himself this luxury, though it is but seldom that he has a
European visitor. He told me with pride that General Boulanger had
in his time been his guest.
After my long ride I required rest; the doors in the yard were
therefore closed, so that it was quite dark in my room. The flies did
not worry me, and I had quite a refreshing sleep until I was
awakened by the neighing of the horses in the passages. A little later
the light streamed in through my door; a figure stepped in, and for a
moment it was again dark whilst the newcomer passed through the
doorway.
It was the Khalifa; behind him came Hamed and several other
persons, sons or people of the house.
I expressed my pleasure at being the guest of so hospitable a
man, and the Khalifa responded with compliments. Coffee was
served, and the party grouped themselves about me on the floor,
with the exception of the Khalifa who seated himself by me on the
divan, and conversation flowed easily with the help of Hamed.
The contents of my saddle-bags, the photographic apparatus, and
especially an entomological syringe, underwent careful investigation.
But I could not afford to sit and idle
the time away, so went out to look
about me. Through Hamed I
expressed my desire to examine the
interior of a dwelling, and was
promised that I should see everything;
but several times we passed the
square openings on the tops of the
hills, as also the entrances to houses,
without anyone making a sign to us to
enter.
At last we arrived at a house into
which I was invited. On the whole it
much resembled that from which we
came, and was inhabited by a Jew
and a poor Berber family.
JEWISH FAMILY IN A CAVE
The yard was dirty; cooking DWELLING IN HADEIJ.
utensils lay scattered about,
intermingled with a few rush corn-bins
and some goats and poultry.
A woman, old, wrinkled, and tattooed, and both hideous and dirty,
was brought forward for me to see. It was, of course, the Jew’s wife.
His fellow-lodgers, the Berbers, I did not see; but as I stepped into
the dwelling, a vision of blue skirts and bare legs vanished into the
side caves.
Already I began to feel impatient and to fear that I was being
made a fool of and should never see, as I longed to do, where and
how the Berbers lived. Fortunately I had later a splendid opportunity
of studying the whole subject.
Accompanied by two sons of the Khalifa and some other persons
I walked round the valley and up the slopes, whence I could peer
down into the caves at the bottom of the valley, and could see
women going through the entrances to their dwellings, to the palm
and olive trees, followed by dogs and inquisitive children.
My camera I had with me, and used it frequently.
As the sunset hour approached, the heat relaxed, and one
breathed with ease.
In a great open square, beautified with palms, at least fifty young
men and boys were running from side to side. They had cast aside
the burnous, and wore only red caps and shirts, which fluttered as
they ran. With long sticks, bent at one end, they struck at a soft ball
which flew to and fro, sometimes in the air, sometimes on the
ground.
It was beautiful to watch these bold muscular figures, so straight
and supple, with their light brown skins, regular features and bright
eyes, reminding me that thus must the Greek and Roman boys have
played on the plains beneath their blue mountains.
CAVES IN MATMATA.
The game was kept up without a pause, until the sun sank
suddenly behind the mountains, and it was no longer possible to
see, for twilight is unknown in these regions.
I returned to my cave, lit my candle, smoked cigarettes and waited
until my dinner should be served.
Five figures appeared, each carrying a dish which was placed on
a table before me, and a pitcher of water was deposited beside me.
The meal consisted of soup with lumps of meat highly peppered, a
stew of chicken, and an enormous dish of kus-kus, made of barley
meal with goat’s flesh, and, finally, honey and bread; this last was of
barley meal, dry but well flavoured.
Return to Gabés
EXCAVATED STABLE.
Over the valley to the north rose the mountains, and beyond them
stretched an indistinct light blue plain, melting far away into a darker
blue—this was the sea.
Step by step, slowly but surely, our horses paced down the long
valley into which we descended. Now and again we put up a covey
of partridges that flew up the mountain, and the larks started in
couples from amongst the palms and stones. We presently hurried
on at the quick pace to which the Berber horses are accustomed;
Hamed singing, as we went along, a song that echoed above us and
on every side.
Perched on some stones at the bottom of the dry bed of a torrent
were three pretty little girls, who leaned against the bank and peeped
shyly at us over it. Their goats jumped from stone to stone seeking
food amongst the scanty forage afforded by the dry burnt pasture.
The tallest of the little girls ran suddenly away from the others
when I rode towards them. She scrambled up the rocky bank like a
squirrel, and paused on the top of a large boulder; the flock of black
goats following her. She was evidently old enough to know that
speech with a strange man is forbidden.
Belkassim tried to coax her down again; he assured her that the
kind stranger would give her money if she would come to him. But
no, she would not respond, remaining where she was and calling to
the two other little ones. These pressed nervously against each
other, in their thin blue garments, and, when I offered them some
coppers, shut their eyes as they extended their hands to me to
receive the money, and then took flight.
We were near some native dwellings. Dogs barked, under an
olive tree stood a donkey munching straw, and we perceived some
of the familiar blue figures, which looked nearly black against their
light brown surroundings. In the distance their ornaments glittered in
the light of the setting sun. Belkassim shouted to them to come
forward as it was a friend and brother of the Khalifa who wished to
see them. Most of them remained standing where they were and
stared at us. The men were apparently all away, either amongst the
mountains, busy with the date harvest, or building tanks in the
valleys, so from them there was naught to fear.
We dismounted and had a chat with the women. I unpacked my
camera and tried to take their portraits, but these girls and women
are so restless that it is difficult to make them keep still. There was
one exception, however, a pretty fresh young girl who came out of
one of the dwellings—a cave like those near Hadeij—and stared and
stared at the camera.
An old woman next came tripping up to offer herself, evidently of a
mind that coppers are worth having. I should have preferred her
good-looking daughters, who were engaged in driving a restive
camel into the cave passage. But this I saw plainly was not to be, for
she ordered the girls in and placed herself before me, and I had to
be satisfied.
This was the village of Judlig. The population cannot be large, but
by me it will always be remembered as the village of many women.
Continuing along the base of the valley for about an hour, we then
entered another valley through the great deep bed of a broad river
now dry; the banks were quite perpendicular. This river is the Sid
Barrak. The horses had difficulty in keeping their footing on the stony
bottom.
On a slight rise our guide bade us
halt, so we drew rein while he pointed
out Sid ben Aissa, but I could see
nothing.
When we had ridden some way
down the valley, we saw some half-
score white burnouses coming
towards us. These proved to be the
Sheikh and his people, who came to
bid me welcome; his brown-clad
followers walked beside their horses.
In time, the old greybeards and dark-
eyed merry lads joined our party.
Dogs barked, sombre clad females
BERBER WOMAN OF THE
with peaked white headgear peered VILLAGE OF JUDLIG.
over the crest of the mound, and
terrified little children fled to their
mothers and hid themselves in the folds of their garments.
Palm trunks raised their lofty crowns towards the blue heavens,
where, on the mountains and in the valley, they grew mingled with
olive and fig trees, and the hot air of midday quivered about us as we
made our entry.
A CAVE INTERIOR.
(From a sketch by Knud Gamborg).