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Energy Balance of The Global Photovoltaic (PV) Industry - Is The PV
Energy Balance of The Global Photovoltaic (PV) Industry - Is The PV
Energy Balance of The Global Photovoltaic (PV) Industry - Is The PV
pubs.acs.org/est
■ INTRODUCTION
The amount of sunlight energy that flows through an area the
support renewable energy technologies through mandated
proportions of renewable electricity generation, such as
size of Connecticut (15,000 km2) each second is roughly equal California’s Renewables Portfolio Standard (Senate Bill X1-
to the average energy demand of the whole of human society 02) of 33% by 2020;4 financial incentives for system
(15 TW). Given the magnitude of the solar energy flow, the installation, such as the California Solar Initiative;5 or
direct conversion of sunlight to electricity via photovoltaic (PV) guaranteed prices paid on electricity generated and sold back
systems provides an opportunity for human society to meet a to the grid, such as the Feed-In Tariffs Scheme (FITs) in
significant amount of its energy needs from a low carbon, Germany and the UK.6 Such policies are aimed at providing a
renewable source. market for PV systems to stimulate production and drive down
The global installed capacity of PV grew at an average rate of financial costs of PV deployment. The success of these policies
40% per year in the period 2000−2010.1−3 Global installed is typically judged by monitoring the financial cost of PV
capacity in 2010 was around 40 GW, split between six main PV modules and the installed capacity of PV systems, not by their
technologies: single-crystal (sc-Si) and multicrystalline (mc-Si) success at reducing GHG emissions.
silicon (which together comprise around 90% of the market), Primary energy ‘consumption’, with associated GHG
amorphous silicon (a-Si), ribbon silicon, cadmium telluride emissions, occurs throughout the full life-cycle of a PV system
(CdTe), and copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) as from extraction of raw materials, through panel and BOS
shown in Figure 1. Growth has been particularly rapid (over manufacture, system operation and maintenance, and finally
100% per year in the period 2008−2010) in thin film disposal. This life-cycle primary energy consumption is termed
technologies, especially CdTe and CIGS. the cumulative energy demand (CED).7 The time taken for a
Because PV-generated electricity emits few greenhouse gases
(GHG) during its lifetime operation, governments worldwide Received: September 25, 2012
promote PV as a GHG emissions reduction strategy (other Revised: February 15, 2013
reasons include energy security, health, and other environ- Accepted: February 26, 2013
mental concerns). Many governments have policies that Published: February 26, 2013
© 2013 American Chemical Society 3482 dx.doi.org/10.1021/es3038824 | Environ. Sci. Technol. 2013, 47, 3482−3489
Environmental Science & Technology Article
Table 1. Definitions
Figure 7. Growth rate [%/yr] as a function of CEeD) [kWhe/Wp] (top axis) and electricity payback time (EePBT) [yrs] assuming an 11.5% capacity
factor (bottom axis) for a number of fractional reinvestment rates [%] (diagonal lines). Red lines indicate negative net electricity yield, and green
lines indicate positive net electricity yield. The trajectories of CEeD (or EePBT) and annual growth rates for PV technologies are depicted on a
biannual basis between 2000 and 2010. The size of the circles represents the amount of installed capacity [GW] of each technology on a logarithmic
basis.
thus have the potential to offset more GHG emissions. If the to process the materials. R&D can decrease the amount and
PV industry continues at its current growth rate, by 2020 purity of materials required in order to maximize the utilization
production could reach 3300 TWh/yr (approximately 17% of of a given material feedstock (e.g., silicon). There are
current global annual electricity production). If no decrease in fundamental thermodynamic limits to our ability to reduce
CEeD of PV occurs, this would entail an electrical energy input the CEeD, such as the minimum chemical exergy that must be
of around 2937 TWh/yr, representative of a fractional provided in order to purify a material from its usual ore state,
reinvestment of 89%. If, however, the PV industry continues for example obtaining pure silicon from silica. It is therefore
the historical rate of decreasing CEeD, the input would be 264 important to simultaneously increase net energy production by
TWh/yr, a fractional reinvestment of 8%, corresponding to an also increasing system efficiency and durability. A number of
industry-wide, mean CEeD of 0.2 kWhe/Wp. This is equivalent nascent technologies exist to boost PV efficiency beyond the
to the CE e D of some existing polymer PV systems. Shockley-Queisser limit (which defines the maximum theoreti-
Consequently, it is important to continue to track and reduce cal efficiency of a single p-n junction solar cell at 34%) such as
the CEeD of the PV industry. multijunction and multiple-exciton cells, hot-carrier cells, up-
A number of factors could decrease the fractional reinvest- conversion, or thermophotonics.51
ment rate: reducing the growth rate of the PV industry, The other major factor in how well the PV industry performs
reducing the CEeD or increasing the capacity factor of PV going forward is the capacity factor that new installations can
system deployment. If the goal is a rapid transition to a achieve. Doubling the capacity factor, ceteris paribus, halves the
sustainable, low-carbon energy sector, then maintaining high EePBT. Deployment of PV in regions with high insolation and
PV industry growth rates is beneficial. Consequently, the PV capacity factors provides greater overall benefits for the energy
industry will benefit from further reductions in the CEeD and system. As such, policies aimed solely at rapid deployment in
deployment in areas with higher capacity factors. areas with low insolation, without increasing net electricity yield
Technology development can reduce the CEeD of PV by (by either decreasing CEeD or improving PV performance),
decreasing the material requirements per unit of capacity [kg/ might not be beneficial for the energy sector as a whole.
Wp] (or alternatively increasing the device efficiency per unit of In summary, a model has been developed to track the
material used [Wp/kg]) and by decreasing the energy required evolution of electrical energy inputs to PV system deployment,
3487 dx.doi.org/10.1021/es3038824 | Environ. Sci. Technol. 2013, 47, 3482−3489
Environmental Science & Technology
■
Article
AUTHOR INFORMATION
Corresponding Author
*Phone: 650-725-8579. Fax: 650-723-9190. E-mail: mikdale@
stanford.edu.
Notes
The authors declare no competing financial interest.
■ ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This work was made possible with financial assistance from
GCEP. The authors are also indebted to Richard Sassoon,
Charlie Barnhart, Adam Brandt, Mike McGehee, Steve Eglash,
John Weyant, Dick Swanson, Roy Johnson, Mark Golden, and
Mark Schwarz at Stanford University for their invaluable advise.
Thanks are also due to the reviewers for a number of
interesting and useful suggestions.
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