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go: HSBC
June 02, 2023 - 09:02
Việt Nam’s May trade data points to no further deterioration, there is still a long way to see a meaningful rebound
in its trade cycle
HCM CITY — While Việt Nam’s May trade data point to no further deterioration, there
is still a long way to go to see a meaningful rebound in its trade cycle, HSBC said in
a report.
The report said Việt Nam is not out of the woods yet. Despite no further deterioration in
economic activity data in May, there is no clear sign that Việt Nam has bottomed out
amid intensifying headwinds to growth. Indeed, sluggish external data remains the
biggest downside risk to growth.
While exports fell 5.8 per cent year-on-year, a much smaller magnitude compared to the
double-digit decline in previous months, base effects came to a partial rescue. Lingering
broad-based exports weakness continues to weigh on Việt Nam’s growth prospects.
Indeed, none of the major categories, including electronics, machinery, textiles, footwear
and wooden furniture showed signs of a meaningful rebound. Although exports data by
country are not yet available in May, data as of April 2023 suggests substantial falling
shipments in Việt Nam’s three largest exporting destinations including US, China and
the EU. In particular, with a hefty share of 30 per cent, Việt Nam is particularly sensitive
to a US economic slowdown.
Despite exports falling by single-digit, imports declined at a much faster pace of 18.3 per
cent year-on-year. Arguably this is beneficial to Việt Nam’s trade surplus, registering at
US$2.2 billion, twice 2022's monthly average.
Indeed, its improving trade balance is partially the reason why the Vietnamese đồng has
stayed relatively stable amid strength in the US dollar in the past two weeks,
outperforming peers like KRW and MYR, which are also highly correlated to RMB.
However, given Việt Nam’s import-intensive nature in its manufacturing sector, the
extreme weakness in imports signals a sluggish rebound in future exports.
That said, it is not all doom and gloom. Vietnam’s services sector remains a bright spot,
partially offsetting some external weakness. However, there is a clear divergence
between big-ticket items, such as automotive sales, and tourism-related services – a
trend that is occurring in regional peers as well.
Encouragingly, Việt Nam continues to see a positive influx of tourists. Despite falling
slightly from April’s high, Việt Nam welcomed more than 900,000 tourists again,
bringing its tourism recovery to around 70 per cent of 2019’s level. In particular, tourists
from mainland China recovered to 35 per cent of 2019’s level – though still slow, the
progress is ongoing. Indeed, Việt Nam has made good progress to restore direct flights
with China, now recovering to 44 per cent of 2019’s level.
Việt Nam has received 4.6 million international tourists YTD, approaching 60 per cent
of its annual target of 8 million in 2023. With the approaching summer holidays and
potential easing of visa restrictions, which are under consideration by the National
Assembly, Việt Nam will likely see a punchier boost from international tourism, a much-
needed support for its sharply slowing economy. The proposal includes extensions of e-
visa to 90 days (from 30 days) and visa-free stays to 45 days (from 15 days), as well as
expanding the list of countries eligible for e-visas, aiming to catch up with regional
peers.
Last, some good news is that inflation has been consistently cooling down. Headline
inflation momentum remained flat in May, bringing year-on-year headline inflation to
2.4 per cent. Although housing and construction material costs rose 1.0 per cent month-
on-month, mainly reflecting a one-month lag of electricity price hikes, significantly
lower transport costs (-3 per cent month-on-month) offset some upside risks. Indeed,
moderating inflation is one of the reasons behind the State Bank of Vietnam’s (SBV)
second rate cut recently. — VNS
Summary:
The article shows that the weakness in exports is likely to continue, we are not yet
out of the recession zone. Although the data shows no decline, it is still not much
better. Exports decreased compared to last year, and none of the main products
recovered significantly. The main export markets decreased significantly. Imports are
showing signs of decline, but exports are more positive, which is beneficial to
Vietnam's trade surplus. The trade balance is temporarily balanced.
Feelings:
After reading a short article on the import and export trade of our country, based on
the above data, I realize that the export situation is showing signs of decline because
we do not have key export products and The main export market of our country is
falling sharply. However, in return, our country's import ratio increased and partly
helped balance the trade balance, which is a good sign in the period when the US
dollar is getting stronger. The number of foreign tourists also contributes to the
prosperity of the trade ratio in the economy of our country. However, there are still a
number of other problems that keep the economy from developing strongly.