Good evening, friends.

Welcome to the college group at the same time in the evening to discuss
the topic of investment with me. NIFTY runs entirely around 21,800, and there is basically no
change in the index compared with yesterday. SENSEX runs entirely around 72,100, and the index
is still oscillating in the high price range of history. With the longer cycle, the operating space of
the index will be more and more certain.

The potential oscillatory structure of SENSEX is quite obvious. I think the limits of the pressure
and support levels are 74,000 and 70,000 respectively, and the two key technical lines constitute
the medium-term oscillatory structure. The reason for the upward pressure is the valuation
repair and technical adjustment, and the reason for the support below is the advantage of the
economic fundamentals and the continuous inflow of buying funds into the market.

The specific path of the red line cannot be accurately predicted. The difficulty of oscillating
trading lies in the great uncertainty. It is very likely that it will fall after buying and rise after
selling; it is also possible to rise slightly after buying and fall after selling. When the market is
fluctuating, the dynamic technical indicators are all disorderly. If you follow the market to trade
randomly, it may increase the loss.

In the range of oscillation, for friends who are keen on short-term trading, the buying point will
only be safer when it is close to the lower support line, and the selling point is preferably in the
range close to the upper pressure level. And many of our friends have their own jobs, and
investment is just a secondary occupation. In order not to affect their own work, I suggest you
adopt a long-term holding strategy and only retain a few buying and selling opportunities.

The support and pressure range of NIFTY are at the price of 21,200 and 22,400 respectively. In
the range of oscillation, the index does not necessarily reach a certain threshold, nor does it
necessarily maintain a complete cycle between the two technical positions within the range.
Therefore, our next operation strategy is dynamic. If it is close to the support level, we will buy
the stock again. If it has not approached the pressure level before June, I will choose to buy the
stock again when the fundamentals are clearer.
The reasons for the formation of the support and resistance levels in the box oscillating structure
of NIFTY are the same as those of SENSEX. The upward pressure only comes from technical
adjustments and valuation repairs, and the lower support comes from the strong economic
fundamentals and a continuous inflow of funds to buy. By comparing these reasons, we should
know the direction of the market's future trend.

In the investment market, all varieties will have an oscillating structure, and the direction that the
oscillating structure will be eventually breached must be the direction with the least resistance,
and this force to breach comes from the fundamentals. Support and pressure cannot be balanced
all the time, there will always be a time to resolve the contradiction. When the contradiction is
resolved, the stronger side will win.

Human society will operate in the direction of the least resistance, and the development of
society will also operate in the direction of the least resistance, and stocks will also operate in the
direction of the least resistance. If you think that India's economy will become the world's
third-largest economy in the next 10 years, then you don't care about technical adjustments and
valuation repairs now, these reasons and resistances are too small.

The above is the content of the macro thinking. Next, we will continue to explain the microcosmic
content of the spread. Tonight, I will explain to you the "mispriced" behavior that can create a
huge spread in the stock market in the short to medium term. "Mispriced" means that under
systemic risk, or after a short-term burst of huge bad news in the industry, there is a consistent
decline, and all stocks related to the event and news are panic-sold, and the price falls
rapidly and sharply.

After the selling sentiment ends, the market will enter a rational stage. By specifically analyzing
the market, industry, or stock, it is found that there is a great deviation between price and value,
and then it is re-bought, and the stock price restores the previous trend, resulting in huge spread
profits. Such a market is generally considered that after the collective "serious mispriced",cheap
assets have emerged, and buying is equivalent to picking up money.
The closest example to us is the seriously mispricing of US stocks when the epidemic came in
March 2020. The NASDAQ index in the United States fell by 33% from around 9,800 points to
around 6,600 points. After the seriously mispricing, it rose to around 16,000 points after 20
months. It can be broadly said that at that time, no matter what stocks were bought, there would
be huge spread profits, and all were market conditions for picking up money.

This is the view on seriously mispricing. As long as we analyze the market where stocks are
seriously mispriced and fall, we will inevitably find the diamond price that has been buried. This
market is magnified by systemic risks, and it is reduced by local technical or news. For example,
the "compressed valuation" of the recent Indian stock market. Due to the impact of the news,
many stocks are falling, so if we find the oversold stocks and buy them, it will definitely be
picking up money.

When the stock starts to fall, you must analyze the reason for its fall. Only when you know the
reason, you will have more firm confidence to do this well. If you have no confidence and no solid
basis, then you may not dare to buy it or sell it for a small profit, thus missing out on huge
profits in the future.

The search for cheap assets, the search for seriously mispricing trends and spreads requires a
sharp sense of smell. Success can be replicated, and the development of everything has its own
cycle. Looking closely, they are all very similar. Going back to 2020, cheap crude oil futures
allowed me to capture the market of picking up money again.

First of all, everyone should know that whether it is the approaching risk or the arrival of good
news, the stock market will react first, and then spread to the commodity market. In March 2020,
when I saw the spread of the epidemic, the stock markets around the world were falling in panic.
Based on my experience, I knew that my opportunity had come again. Such risk events occur
once in decades.

The Federal Reserve had already started to cut interest rates in 2019, and the monetary policy
was in an easing cycle. After the epidemic spread globally, central banks around the world would
inevitably carry out bailout rate cuts. So I bottom-fished some stocks after the US stock market
broke below 7,000. At the same time, I saw that the manufacturing industries in many major
economies were broken due to people's panic and fear of working. Combined with my
experience, I felt that bulk commodities would experience panic selling after the stock market.
Fortune will not disappoint those who work hard. Luck takes care of me a lot. My point of view
has been verified. I remember very clearly that on April 20 of that year, the delivery price of
NYMEX in April fell to negative numbers. What does this mean? Crude oil is in glut, shipping is
broken, and purchases are not active, etc. But we need to know that crude oil cannot be
worthless. In the face of this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, even if everyone is in fear, I know
I must be greedy!

I just want to be a speculator who fully secretes dopamine at the right time. So the next day, I
bought the June contract at a price of $8 to $10 respectively; the July contract at a price of $20;
and the August contract at a price of $22. With the blessing of my good friend "time" and the
leverage, I made a generous profit. But when the energy prices soared in September 2021 and
the Russian-Ukrainian conflict was superimposed, I lowered my position. The degree of
geopolitical political conflict is not enough, which is not within the scope of consideration
of cheap assets.

I bought crude oil for two reasons. First, the value and price do not match. Even if the short-term
production supply chain is broken, it is relative. If it is to be broken, the upstream and
downstream must be broken together, and the supply and demand will definitely be reduced
together. Only defining the price from the demand side is obviously a radical behavior of market
blindness. I don't know if everyone can understand this sentence.

Second, after each systemic risk, Europe and the United States will cut interest rates and expand
their balance sheets. The QE policy after 2008, combined with the repeated success of
Keynesianism, makes these central banks more willing to solve all problems through monetary
regulation. From a historical perspective, the easing of the monetary side will have a different
degree of impact on risk assets, it's just a matter of sequence.

I won't give you an example of bottom-fishing NAS stocks. In any case, bottom-fishing cheap and
risk-free assets is a combination of experience and a sharp sense of smell. I have always
advocated an investment approach of careful thinking in many aspects and bold verification.
Fundamental and macro thinking must be the main reason, and technology is the secondary
reason. Technology only adds icing on the cake to the established goals, and it is not possible to
judge the market trend by technology alone.
In fact, the stock price fluctuations in any period are confusing to most investors. Many friends
will have such behavior: when the stock price keeps rising, it is very clear, but once there is an
adjustment or turning point, they will immediately doubt their judgment. The key to this problem
is that you are not firm enough, and the reason for not being firm enough is that there is too little
prior analysis and preparation.

When the market falls sharply and panics, more people actually dare not trade. I used to be a
beginner too, and I understand the mistakes that every friend may make. Not only do we need to
do a good job of advance analysis and judgment, but also having a strong mental quality is also
our required course. Friends in the college, it doesn't matter if you don't understand. You don't
need to doubt yourself. Just follow me and stick to it!

Some friends think that the current stock market decline is due to the election. I don't agree with
this view. No matter who is the ruler of the country, the ultimate goal must be to boost India's
economic development and make India stronger in various ways. Will India stop infrastructure
construction because of different rulers? Will the international oil price be affected because of
different rulers? Will everyone's lifestyle change because of different rulers?

Take the same example. In the 2016 US presidential election, the main opponents in the
competition were Trump and Hillary Clinton. Because Trump was born as a businessman, the
market unanimously believed that his successful election would be detrimental to the US
economy. As a result, after he was really elected and began to govern, the US stock market
has been rising.

No matter who serves as the leader of the country, no matter which political party succeeds, they
will represent the interests of the country and the party. The interests of the country must come
above the interests of the party. If the country encounters problems, will the interests of the
party still exist? If a company goes bankrupt, will anyone still pay salaries to the employees?

Many people have difficulty making a profit in the stock market, which has a lot to do with their
own thinking. There is nothing wrong with maintaining a distinct personality or freedom of
speech, but you must consider the problem more comprehensively. We can't keep wandering in
our own closed loop of thinking. If you use a wrong point of view to verify a wrong conclusion,
everything will come out as wrong.
Dear friends, there are many ways to create price differences. They can be caused by systemic
risks, natural fluctuations, or news, but there is only one truth. When price differences occur, we
must discover and take advantage of them, so that we can earn more profits in different markets.
Well, that's all for tonight's sharing. See you during the trading hours tomorrow!