SOCIAL MOBILIZATION AND

THE PHILIPPINE
POLITICAL SYSTEM

JESSE F. MARQUETTE
University of Florida

Republic
Despite the has
often chaotic profile of its postwar history, the Philippines
viable
developed a A democracy.interest-
ing aspect of postwar Philippine politics has been the continuous and
particularly

steady increase ~in the level of mass electoral participation. This paper
presents a partial explanation for this increase and the concomitant
development of a stable mass democracy in the Philippines in terms of
certain salient socioeconomic factors.
Philippine society has experienced rapid and continuing change; yet, in
the face of this change with all its attendant problems, the vast majority of
the populace has been willing to carry its problems to the ballot box.
Despite some electoral violence, the transfers of power have been legal; a
civilian regime has governed since independence, and the government has
peacefully changed hands upon the decision of the electorate. In this
sense, the Phillippines constitute a stable democracy.
In the following discussion, development is discussed strictly in terms
of democratic development; the increasing participation of the mass of the
populace in the decision-making processes of the political system.
Although there are many definitions of development, mass participation is
usually a component (Pye, 1966), and in this paper concentration is
centered on electoral activity as the least demanding form of participation.

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[340]

Before developing the Philippine case further, I will provide some

general background on causal modeling.
While many authors have attempted to establish conceptual links
between social change and political behavior, perhaps the best first
approximation has been offered by Lerner (1957). From research on the
Middle East, Lerner suggests a three-stage process of socioeconomic change
which might lead to increased political development. He argues first that
urbanization provides the base for more widespread educational oppor-
tunity and therefore leads to increased literacy. This increase in literacy
then increases demand for mass media consumption, and fmally, increased
exposure to mass medialeads to increased political participation.
Diagramatically, the linkage is simply:
Urbanization-Educatian-Media consumption-Political participation.
Lerner justifies this linkage with his concept of empathy. He argues that
as an individual becomes increasingly able to empathize with modern
forms of behavior, he becomes increasingly willing to engage in modern
forms of behavior. Lerner argues, as does Deutsch, that exposure to
aspects of modernity will increase the individual’s ability to empathize
with modern behavior patterns. The actual social processes indexed by
urbanization, education, and media consumption, increase the popula-
tion’s exposure to modern behavior patterns and, therefore, their ability to
empathize, and finally participate.
Lerner merely presents his developmental sequence as a hypothesis,
with the suggestion that his data tend to support it. Recently, Cnudde and
McCrone (1967) have tested this hypothesis by postulating the develop-
mental sequence as a causal model. They tested their model using data
drawn from a 76-nation study by Cutright (1963). Using the Simon-
Blalock technique of causal inference (Blalock, 1964), they concluded that
the developmental model followed the sequence postulated by Lerner.
There are two basic problems with this test of Lerner’s hypothesis.
First, we must assume that all nations follow the same developmental
path. Unless we are willing to make this assumption we cannot justify the
use of data drawn from nations with vastly different levels of socioeco-
nomic and political advancement. For example, the authors are asking us
to assume that for the purposes of testing a developmental model,
Venezuela in 1960 can be used as an adequate substitute for Britain in
1840. It is doubtful that societies observed at the same period of real time
can be rearranged along some hypothetical continuum of social time. It is
also a questionable practice to make diachronic, idiographic generaliza-
tions from synchronic, nomothetic data.

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METHODS

The initial attempt to establish a model for Philippine political

development utilized the Lerner hypothesis applied to three variables:
education, urbanization, and mass media, drawn from the Census of the
Philippines for 1948 through 1960.’ The province is used as the data base.
Political development, the dependent variable, was indicated by the
turnout in presidential contests. These data on the postwar presidential
elections were obtained from the various reports of the Philippine
Commission on Elections. Education was indicated by the percentage of
the population over ten who were literate; mass media consumption was
indicated by the percent of the families owning radios; and urbanization
2
was indicated by population density.
Two sets of correlation coefficients were generated for the three
sociodemographic variables; one. set for data from the 1948 census and the
other for data from the 1960 census. Five sets of correlation coefficients
were generated for the relation of the sociodemographic variables and the

presidential elections from 1949 to 1965. i

To develop one model for the entire time span the simple method of’i
averaging correlation coefficients was used. For example, the correlation
of urbanization with education in 1948 was averaged with the correlation
of urbanization with education in 1960 to arrive at a composite
correlation of urbanization and education. The correlation matrices
originally resulting from the analysis can be handled separately, one matrix
for each election year; however, as long as the coefficients are of the same
magnitude and direction, there is no compelling reason to treat them
separately. In this way we can create one composite matrix to represent
the relations under study for an entire time period. More important, by
averaging the correlation coefficients based on several different years, we
increase the reliability of the coefficients.’ The composite correlation
matrix for the years 1953 to 1965 is presented in Table 1 (data for the

TABLE 1
THE COMPOSITE CORRELATION COEFFICIENT
MATRIX (1953-19f5)

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1949 election are not included in this matrix because of an observed

negative correlation between education and participation; this will be
discussed further).
The first stage of Lerner’s hypothetical sequence requires that
educational growth (in itself a product of urbanization) cause media
growth. Using the composite data, the prediction equation for the first
link is:

Equation (A) quite clearly demonstrates that the causal path is not
operating in the expected direction. The alternative path of Urbaniza-
tion-Media-Education, yields the prediction equation (B):

Therefore, we may argue tentatively that the path shown in Figure 1 is

operative in the Philippine case. The reversal of this first link should mean
that the relation postulated by Lemer for the second link will also be
invalid. Thus, the sequence, Education-Media-Development, should not
hold. The prediction equation is:

This is obviously incorrect. The alternative path, as expected from the first
link, is Media-Education-Development. This prediction equation is:

The relationship in (D) is much more likely to be valid than that in (C).
The causal path for all four variables is shown in Figure 2.
Since the possible correlation of urbanization and development is not
statistically significant it will not be discussed. The multiple correlation
coefficient of urbanization, mass media, and education with development
is r 0.66. Since the zero-order correlation of education with development
=

is 0.64, we may consider the minor difference between the two

coefficients as additional evidence that education is the final link in the
causal chain.

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Figure 2

The model for 1949 is represented by Figure 3. The prediction

between urbanization and education shown in
equation for the linkage
Figure 3 is:

Since neither the correlation between media and participation, nor the
correlation between urbanization and participation are statistically signifi-
cant, the model follows the path indicated in Figure 3 for 1949.

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Figure 3

So far, rampant empiricism has demonstrated that Lerner’s hypotheti-

cal developmental sequence cannot be applied in the Philippines. It is now
necessary to provide some conceptual justification for the developmental
sequence presented in Figure 2.

DISCUSSION

In the sequence outlined in Figure 2, the relationship between mass

media and education is the reverse of that postulated by Lerner. Assuming
the Lemer hypothesis to be valid in some cases, why is it invalid in the
Philippine context? The reason for this reversal may hinge on the
importance of radio communications. Lerner argues that the underpinning
of the modernization process is education. Yet, throughout his major work
on development he emphasizes the concept of empathy as a modernizing
force. There is no inherent linkage between the concept of formal
education, which leads to a skill such as literacy, and the education which
leads to increased empathy with modern behavior patterns.
Modern radio networks have two characteristics which multiply their
utility in &dquo;education&dquo; for empathy. First, the radio network is a form of
mass media reaching wide audiences; but second, and more important, the
radio is an oral form of mass media. With radio, a relatively small cadre of
skilled personnel and a modest amount of equipment can reach phenome-
nally large numbers of nonliterate people. Also, since the investment
necessary to purchase a radio makes much less demand upon family

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resources than the education of a child, even severely deprived families

often own radios.
Radio communication, by its very nature, melds neatly into the oral
communications network of the traditional rural society. No special skills
are needed to comprehend the message transmitted by the radio, and by
this fact it is a truly mass medium. Yet, the message of the radio is the
message of modernity, and for the peasant probably provides a much more
effective education in empathy than the education of the school he cannot
afford. Therefore, one consequence of media exposure will be increased
empathy toward modern behavior patterns, while the ability to participate
will still be contingent upon the individual’s possession of modem skills.
Thus, while media exposure can generate modern desires, it cannot
generate modern satisfactions. The increased demand for a &dquo;modern&dquo; life
style will, therefore, increase the demand for education, since education is
the prerequisite for entrance into the system of modernity. The extreme
sacrifices which supposedly ignorant peasants will make in order to ensure
their children’s education testifies to their very accurate perception of the
importance of that education.
Education tends to provide a generalized sense of social competence
concomitant with the possession of increased knowledge. It also tends to
socialize the individual into the duties of the citizen, one of which is real,
or at least ritualistic electoral participation. Literacy thus indexes not only
the possession of a specific skill, but also a constellation of elements
contingent upon the acquisition of that skill. Therefore, we would expect
to find a higher level of political participation among the more educated
elements of the populace.
In the Philippines, this conceptualization of the developmental process
is reflected in the empirically identified causal sequence for 1953 to 1965.
During this period higher levels of the mobilization factors in a province
were associated with higher levels of mass participation, leading us to infer
the causal relations reported in the model. However, in 1949 the last link
of the causal sequence is represented by a negative correlation between
literacy and participation, specifically r = -0.268. In contrast, by 1953,
the correlation had shifted to a positive r of 0.707. This extremely large
shift in the last link of the sequence indicates that the relationship
between social and political change does not lead irreversibly toward
development.
The effect of the gross processes of social change is the creation of
many more socially mobilized individuals. We may argue, following Lemer
and Deutsch, that these individuals will be more highly empathic than

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nonmobilized individuals. Although the development of a large number of

empathic individuals through this sequence increases the politically aware
populace, it does not necessarily increase positive political activity.
Nonvoting by individuals who are politically aware is a political act
reflecting the individual’s decision not to cast a vote; a form of negative
political participation.
Any history of the early postwar period in the Philippines will relate
the extremely high level of governmental and electoral corruption,
particularly at the election of 1949. 4 The negative correlation between
literacy and turnout indicates that those areas most highly mobilized were
also those in which the population was least likely to vote. For any system
of choice, the decision maker must perceive some purpose for his choice
behavior. If the decision maker (in this case the citizen as voter) does not
perceive any purpose to his activity he will cease to manifest that activity;
only the obstinate or the ignorant repeat an activity which does not
reward them.
In the Philippine case, the political impact of Ramon Magsaysay’s
campaign for the Philippine presidency in 1~5~. was the turning point in
the citizen’s perception of the utility of electoral participation. It is this
author’s contention that in the massive reversal of the relationship
between education and participation between 1949 and 1953, we are
witnessing the interaction of a social process and the impact of specific
political activity. The process of mobilization through communications
growth, evidenced by the developmental model, results in higher levels of
political awareness. The direction of the resulting activity, pro- or
antisystem, is conditioned by the citizen’s perception of the potential for
satisfying his new-found aspirations through the system.

NOTES

1. Some objections may be raised to the use of single variables as indicators of

relatively broad concepts. It is this author’s view that one of two situations could
prevail: either all the variables used in an index are highly correlated, in which case
one variable would suffice; or, the variables used are not highly correlated, in which
case there should be some theoretical justification for the manner in which the
variables are combined into a single index-a justification not usually given. This
provides the rationale for using single variables which will assure that both the
researcher and the reader are aware of exactly what is being discussed.
2. Density was judged to be a better indicator of urbanization than Lemer’s
index of residence in a place with population over 50,000. Of the 50 provinces in the

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Philippines, only 24 have cities with a population over 50,000. Thus, the use of
Lerner’sdefinition would have resulted in missing data for the urbanization variable
in most cases. In addition, Gibbs (1966) has demonstrated that there is a correlation
of approximately 0.92 among accepted indicators of urbanization and one such
indicator is residence in a place of 2,500 population or above. I am quite certain that
the correlation between density and urbanization is similarly high for a country the
size of the Philippines. The smaller the country, and the greater the number of
political subdivisions, the more closely will the size of the subdivisions approach the
size of a city.
3. This technique of averaging correlation coefficients is statistically valid, as long
as all the original coefficients are based on the same size sample (Kelley, 1947). For
unequal sample sizes, a more complex procedure is required.
4. For three excellent histories of the postwar Philippine period, see Scaff
(1955), Smith (1958), and Starner (1961).

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