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重・l A Brief Histo章y Of nobability md Stat塞tics

nimarily, the early work on probabilfty was conccmed with the

detemining expectations and the probabilities in games of chance and
gambling during血c sixteen血ccntury (Playing cards, rOned dice, and
tossed ∞ins). In the scventeenth ∝ntury, Probabmty theory was studied

ty Blaise Pascal, Pierre dc Fcmat and Huygens. In thc eighteenth

CCntury・ Which was dcschbed as the Age of Eplightenment or Age of
Inquiry’many mathcmatieians furthercd the work on probability.

Jacob Bcmoulli extendcd Huygens, work and fhally proving what

is known as thc LaW Of Large Numbers. Blaise Pascds idca of a fair’
distribution and Huygcns, interest in tquitablc’ganes led mathematicians
and carly practitione「s to work out e飾cicnt ways of counting successes
and fa皿ures and血crefore dctemining thc expcctation or probabflfty α

priori Bcmoum proposcd to ascertain probabilities a posterわrf ty looking

at thc results obscrved in many similar instances.

Abraham De Moivrets major mathematieal work was thc probabirty

text棚e Docか玩e qr Ghaれces・ Which included a detallcd discussion of
appror。mating the sum of the tems of the (a + b)n and in which appears
for the血st time thc so-Callcd nomal approximation to the binomial
distribution.

Thomas Baycs was thc first one to attempt a dir∝t anSWer tO the

query of how to dcterIhine probabimy from observed frcquencies and his

formula provided a start in answering the basic questfon of statistical
inference. Later’LaplalCC dcrived essent削J′ thc samc result invoIving
integrals for detemining probab址ty given empirical cvidencc.

Currently, in thc 2lst century, PrObabi購tic mode血g arc used in

Simulations to control the flow of tna髄c through a highway eystcm’a
telcphone intcrchange’antipDuution dcviccs; tO血d thc genetic make-uP
Of individuals or populations; quality or praccss control; insurance;
investment; reliabilfty theory; and other scctors of education, busincss and
industry.
 2 BASIC PROBABiLiTY AND STATISTICS

Statistic3● On血e other hand● dates back to the begi重Inings of

history whcre thc peopIc in Batylon. Sumeria, Egypt. and China, amOng
O血ers, reCOrded populations for taxation and other purposcs. In thc
biblieal timcs, thc l血gs and leadcrs conductcd censuscs anq
registrations. In carly timcs, tribal chiets had to know, for instancc, hbw
many mcn or wal轟ors he had● how marry horses, how many cncmies and
how many m孤cs a朋ry血om the camp ofthe cnemies.

In the seventeenth ∝ntury, a SuCCeSSful store owner (Or

Shopkecper) named John Graunt, a native of Iのndon, Studied and
analyzed a weekly church pubHcation called aBius of Mortality. which
listed births, Christcn血gs, and ’dcaths and thcir causes. Evcntually,
Graunt pub雌shed his obscrvations and. conclusions in a work cntitled _
“Natural and Po雌cal Obscrvations Madc Upon the Bills of Mortality”

(Burton 2OO3). ms 1662 publiea6on was thc血st real intexpretation of

Sacial and bfological phenomena based on a n∞d of raw data (Statistics
inferenccs d]mWn from mass data) and many people considcr this to be the
birth of statistics.

Thc original idea of ‘statistics鯵was thc collection of information

about and for the ‘state’sincc statistical data took the foms of確rres on
tax retums, POPulation, births, deaths, trade, and othcrs which were
COnSidcred inpertant infomation to a political state. The word statistics
WaS derived from an Italian word which means lbr the state:

In the nineteenth century, Quetelct developed statistieal血eory as

a gencral method or rescarch appucatlc to any observable science. The use
Of statistics in social seicnccs was introduced ty F‘rancis Galton, a COuSin
Of Charlcs Darwin, Who madc contributions in thc血olds of hcredfty,

PeyChoIogy, Cugenics, and anthropometry He also developed thc su切ect

On CCntilcs and he first applied thc normal curve to medicine. In the later
years, Pearson couaborated wi血Galton in dcveloping conClation and
regrcssion formulas・ Kuzma and Bohncnblust (2OO5) crcdit Galton for
COining the word鳩g7℃SSわれdu血g his study of the laws of heredity.

重n the twentieth century, R.A Fishcr made major contributions in

Small-SamPIc th∞ry; hc devcIoped血c FI statistlc for thc sampling
distribution uscd for tcsting which is callcd thc F dlstribudo重. James
McKecn Catiell with his studcnt E. L・ Thomdike apphed statistical
methods to p秘rchoIogical and educational problcms which consequcntly
lcd to the intcgration of thcoretical and app皿ed statistics courses in the
Curricular o細erings in American universities・′ In thc触d of medicinc,
medical statisticians EIvcback, Guillcr, and Keating 1197O) suggested
tHnical limits, bc used instead of hormal limits,.

Today, the use of statistieal mcthods has extcnded to thc study of

hcredity, PrOduction in a day, COmPuter SOftware, basketbau results,
enrollment statistics, Car Sales in a month, heights, WCights, mOnthly