Climate Change and Energy

SA Elias, Royal Holloway, University of London, Surrey, United Kingdom

© 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Introduction

Two of the dominant topics in today’s news are climate change and energy. One might even say that these two topics are the
prominent news items of the 21st century. It was not always so. Back in the 1950s and 1960s, coal, oil, and natural gas were all
cheap, and their supply seemed endless and inexhaustible. Fossil fuel production boomed throughout much of the 20th century.
There seemed no reason to conserve gasoline in the United States, for instance, when the price was about 30 cents per gallon.
An American family could afford to fill up the 20 gallon tank on their big car several times per month, at a cost of just 7% of their
monthly income. In the United Kingdom today, purchasing this much fuel would cost about 17% of the average household’s
monthly income. So the days of cheap gasoline are over. Surprisingly, however, the price of coal has changed little through recent
decades. A ton of coal bought in America in 1960 was about $26 per ton (average of all grades of coal). In 2011, that same ton of
coal cost just $32.50, after adjusting for currency inflation (US Energy Information Administration, 2016a). The price of natural gas
has risen considerably since the 1960s, when American consumers purchased it for about $1.05 per thousand cubic feet. In 2015
that price had risen 10-fold, to $10.38 per thousand cubic feet. The price actually peaked in 2008 at $13.89 per thousand cubic
feet—before the expansion of the oil and gas fracking industry brought the price down again (US Energy Information
Administration, 2016a).
As is well documented in the article on the history of rising carbon dioxide emissions and other linked articles (Elias, 2017), the
concentrations of CO2, methane, and other greenhouse gases rose steadily from the commencement of the Industrial Revolution in
the early 1800s, then began to rise exponentially after the Second World War. The burning of fossil fuels has pushed atmospheric
carbon-dioxide levels from 278 parts per million (ppm) at the start of the Industrial Revolution to over 400 ppm today, a 40%
increase. The last time planet Earth’s atmosphere contained this much carbon-dioxide, human beings did not yet exist.
The purpose of this article is to explore the linkages between human fossil fuel energy consumption and climate change. This is a
multifaceted, sometimes highly technical topic, but the aim here is to summarize what we know: how these rapidly paced changes
have come to pass, where we stand now, and what are some ways we can work to improve the situation.

Rise in Energy Use

We humans have acquired a tremendous appetite for energy in the last 200 years. Prior to that time, most homes were heated with
wood fires. People walked, or, if they could afford it, they rode horses. Interiors were lit with candles or oil lamps, the oil coming
from rendered animal fats. Most people simply went to bed shortly after the sun went down, as artificial lighting was expensive. This
practice fit the rhythm of life for farmers living in rural communities, as there are always chores to be done on a farm as soon as the
sun comes up. All of this changed with the build-up of the Industrial Revolution (Whitmore, 2017). In Britain, for instance, the
building of urban factories began to draw people away from farms and into towns and cities. The number of English people living in
cities rose from 17% in 1801 to 72% in 1891. At the beginning of the 19th century 95% of Americans were rural. Industrialization
and urbanization were slower to emerge here than in much of Western Europe. By 1890, 35% of Americans were found in urban
centers. But this marked the beginning of an American urbanization boom. Urban dwellers went from 10 million in 1870 to
50 million in 1920. Urbanization is predicted to continue at a steady rate through the coming decades (Fig. 1). Between 1950 and
2050, global rural populations will have dropped from 70% to 30%, while urban populations are predicted to rise from 30% to
65% over the same interval. Ironically, in the 21st century, rural dwellers tend to use more energy per person than urban dwellers,
possibly because rural transportation tends to be by personal vehicle, while many city dwellers rely on mass transit (US Energy
Information Administration, 2016b).
Coal fired the Industrial Revolution, and it is no coincidence that this social revolution began in coal-rich Britain. British coal
mines produced just 2.5 million tons in 1700; this rose to 50 million tons in 1850, then 250 million tons by 1900, by which time oil
was beginning to be produced in significant quantities (Fig. 2). As shown in Table 1, the current top-10 coal burning countries
include China, the United States, and India. China is by far the highest consumer of coal, with almost 3000 coal-fired electrical
generating plants. The top-10 coal burning countries are contributing more than 85% of global CO2 emissions.
Cities need lighting, and British cities were being lit by gas light, starting in 1819. British houses began to be illuminated by gas
light by the 1860s. High-voltage electric arc lights were installed in Paris in 1878 and in San Francisco in 1879. By 1881 the streets of
most of the large American cities were being lit with electric lamps. Electrical lighting was common throughout urban North
America by the 1920s, accompanied by the invention of a plethora of new electric appliances. The energy needed to fire electrical
generating plants mainly came from coal in those days, and coal-fired plants remain the dominant fuel for electrical generation
(Fig. 3). In fact, two-thirds of all electrical generation remains powered by fossil fuels.

Encyclopedia of the Anthropocene https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-809665-9.10515-4 457

458 Climate Change and Energy

Fig. 1 Global trends in rural to urban populations, 1950–2050. Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.

Fig. 2 British coal production from 1700 to 1900, in millions of tons per year. Data from Trueman (2015). Inset: Historical pen-and-ink drawing of a teenage girl
pulling a tub of coal through a mine tunnel in England, 1842.

Table 1 Countries that account for more than 85% of global CO2 emissions from coal/peat through the production of electricity and heat

Country Coal fired electrical generation plants Total electrical capacity (megawatts) CO2 emissions (megatons) from electrical and heat generation

China 2,929 669,259 3,017

United States 1,368 336,332 1,929
India 809 100,540 663
Germany 273 51,071 250
Russia 223 50,456 223
Japan 217 41,031 217
South Africa 203 37,500 203
Australia 203 29,971 203
South Korea 150 26,269 150
Poland 149 32,067 149

Data from Finkenrath et al. (2012).

 Climate Change and Energy 459

Fig. 3 Global electricity production from all energy sources in 2014. Data from The Shift Project (2016). Note that fossil fuels contribute 66% of the energy used for
electrical generation.

Fig. 4 World fossil fuel energy consumption, 1820–2010, in quadrillions (1015) of BTUs (British thermal units) consumed per year. Data from Our Finite
World (2016).

Public transportation began in earnest in Europe and North America, coincident with the rise of urbanization. Horse-drawn
omnibuses and trams of the mid-19th century gave way to gasoline and diesel-powered buses and electric trams and trains in the
20th century. The mechanization of warfare in the two world wars sped the development of gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles of
all kinds, and oil-burning ship’s engines. Mass production of automobiles that were affordable by many in the general public
revolutionized personal transportation in the 1920s and 1930s. The human use of fossil fuel energy changed how we live, and
contributed significantly to the rising standards of living in the last century. Estimates of human consumption of energy indicate
that our species used about 20 gigajoules of energy per person per year in 1820. Today we are using about 80 gigajoules per
person—four times the energy use at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution (Fig. 4). In 1825, nearly all of the energy we burned
came from wood. Today, about two-thirds of the energy we burn comes from fossil fuels. Not surprisingly, then, between 1900 and
2000, human consumption of fossil fuels rose 10-fold (Fig. 4). The burning of every gram of ancient carbon introduces more
carbon-dioxide into the atmosphere.
The breakdown of global energy use remains heavily dominated by the burning of fossil fuels (Fig. 5). More than 40% of the
energy we use comes from oil, with coal, peat, shale, and natural gas contributing another 25% (International Energy Agency, 2012).
Biofuels and the burning of waste now generate about 12% of our energy consumption, while hydroelectricity and renewable
energy sources (e.g., wind and tide generators and solar panels) are contributing less than 4% of our energy. The bottom line of these
data is that the current methods of obtaining energy are unsustainable.

Rise in Greenhouse Gas Emissions

The combination of nitrogen, oxygen, and argon comprises nearly all of the atmosphere. But none of them are greenhouse gases. All
three are invisible to incoming “short-wave” radiation from the Sun and outgoing “long-wave” radiation from the Earth’s surface.
Because of this, nitrogen, oxygen, and argon play no role in regulating the planet’s atmospheric temperature.
460 Climate Change and Energy

Fig. 5 Global per capita energy consumption by source, 2014. Data from International Energy Agency (2012).

Fig. 6 US greenhouse gas emissions in 2014. Data from the US Environmental Protection Agency (2016a,b).

Water vapor is the Earth’s most significant greenhouse gas, accounting for about 95% of the greenhouse effect. The other
greenhouse gases comprise only a small fraction of the Earth’s atmosphere. Some of the most potent greenhouse gases, CO2 and
methane, represent seemingly insignificant proportions of the atmosphere. CO2 makes up <0.04% of the atmosphere. Methane
makes up only 0.00017% of the atmosphere, but it is an extremely potent greenhouse gas, because is it 28–36 times more potent
than CO2, as a greenhouse gas (US Environmental Protection Agency, 2016a,b). Other than water vapor, CO2 is the largest
contributor to greenhouse gas warming, followed by methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated hydrocarbons (Fig. 6).
The world’s oceans hold the vast majority (94%) of the planet’s CO2. Most of the rest is tied up in terrestrial vegetation. CO2
cycles between the atmosphere, oceans, and biosphere. Prior to the 19th century, greenhouse gas levels had been relatively stable for
the last 10,000 years. The oceans are absorbing most of the increased carbon-dioxide being pumped into the atmosphere by the
burning of fossil fuels. In fact, 57% of the carbon emitted from fossil fuel burning is not even in the atmosphere. It has been
absorbed by the ocean, and will ultimately come to rest in its greatest depths. But that will take hundreds of years to be
accomplished. In the meantime, atmospheric concentration is now at a level not seen by our species.
Atmospheric methane levels have risen from a preindustrial level of 722 parts per billion to a current level averaging 1850 ppb,
with spikes reaching 3000 ppb on some days in 2016 (Table 2). So methane levels have more than doubled since the Industrial
Revolution. The sources of methane represent a combination of natural- and human-induced factors. Arctic bogs and lake sediments
contain vast quantities of ancient carbon, trapped in permanently frozen ground (permafrost). As the planet warms and permafrost
is melting, the Arctic and subarctic regions are releasing increasing amounts of this ancient carbon back into the atmosphere in the
form of methane. Cattle are a major source of methane emissions, as their digestive system releases methane. Cows emit around
400 L of methane per day, or between 70 and 120 kg of methane per animal per year. All told, the world’s ruminants (cows and
sheep) are responsible for the release of 2.8 billion metric tons of methane per year—the single largest source of atmospheric
methane. The problem is exacerbated in tropical regions, where rainforests are being felled to create pasture lands for cattle. It is
estimated that 70% of former Amazon forests have been converted to grazing land. The third major contributor of methane to the
atmosphere is rice agriculture. Rice is an aquatic grass. Once the seeds (rice grains) have been harvested, the bulk of the plant
decomposes in water. This kind of decomposition (in the absence or scarcity of oxygen) produces methane. Rice agriculture emits
between 50 and 100 million metric tons of methane per year.
 Climate Change and Energy 461

Table 2 Recent greenhouse gas concentrations

Gas Pre-1750 concentration Current concentration Atmospheric lifetime (years)

Carbon dioxide 280 parts per million (ppm) 403 ppm 100–300
Methane 722 parts per billion (ppb) 1850 ppb 12.4
Nitrous oxide 270 ppb 328 ppb 121
Ozone (O3) 237 ppb 337 ppb Hours to days
CFC-11 (CCL3F) 0 232 parts per trillion 45
CFC-12 (CCL3F2) 0 516 ppt 100
HCFC-22 (CHCIF2) 0 233 ppt 11.9

Data from Blasing (2016).

The other greenhouse gases that affect Earth’s atmospheric temperatures include nitrous oxide and ozone. Ozone occurs
naturally, as the three-atom molecule of oxygen. About 90% of atmospheric ozone occurs in the stratosphere, where it is formed
from O2 molecules, in the presence of ultraviolet light (3O2 ! 2O3). Ozone constitutes only 0.000004% of the atmosphere,
compared with O2, which is 21% of the atmosphere. But as with methane, ozone is a potent greenhouse gas. Nitrous oxide is 300
times more potent than CO2 as a greenhouse gas. This gas comes from the breakdown of nitrogen-based chemical fertilizers. About
1% of the nitrogen in these fertilizers eventually converts to atmospheric N2O, where it persists for over a century.
Various human-made fluorinated hydrocarbons, such as the refrigerants/aerosol propellants: CFC-11 and CFC-12 (trichloro-
fluoromethane and dichlorofluoromethane) and HCFC-22 (chlorodifluoromethane) also contribute to the problem. These occur
in minute quantities in the atmosphere, but are nonetheless potent greenhouse gases. These have been shown to destroy ozone in
the atmosphere, and so their use has by-in-large been discontinued in many countries, but they persist as chemical species for
decades or centuries in the atmosphere (Table 2). HCFC-22 is 1350 times more potent than CO2 as a greenhouse gas. CFC-11 is
1320 times more potent, and CFC-12 is 6650 times more potent than CO2 as a greenhouse gas.
It is not just the intensity of greenhouse gas concentration changes that is affecting the global climate, it is the pace of those
changes. Take carbon-dioxide as the primary example. In prehistoric times, temperature and CO2-level changes occurred over
thousands of years. At the beginning of the current interglacial warm period, for instance (about 11,000 years ago), it took
5,000 years for atmospheric CO2 concentrations to increase by 80 ppm above the level of the last glacial period. Since the onset
of widespread industrialization following the Second World War, the burning of fossil fuels has increased atmospheric CO2 levels
almost 80 ppm in just 60 years. One of the primary signatures of the Anthropocene is that humans are now the drivers of CO2 level,
not temperature.
To compound the problem of atmospheric CO2 rise, we must also take into account the positive feedback loop that exists
between the CO2 in the air and in the oceans. As discussed above, the vast majority of the planet’s CO2 exist as dissolved gas in the
world’s oceans. The current climatic warming is causing the world’s oceans to warm. Warm water holds less dissolved gases than
cold water, so the now-warming ocean waters are releasing CO2 into the atmosphere. This creates a positive feedback loop, as the
rising levels of atmospheric CO2 produce even more global warming. The situation is far more complex than this simple physical
property of water however, as changing temperature and salinity patterns force ocean currents into new courses and depths.
However, CO2 mixes quickly and evenly throughout the atmosphere, so that carbon-dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere do
not vary much in different parts of the world. So even though the observatory on top of the Hawaiian mountain of Mauna Loa sits in
the middle of the Pacific Ocean, it still records atmospheric gases that are in the same proportion as in the rest of the world. In Mar.,
2015 the Mauna Loa station collected samples containing 400 ppm of CO2. In fact the breaking of the 400 ppm threshold was
recorded from 40 sites, worldwide.

Human Population Rise

Human population is estimated to have been about 300 million in AD 3. The population doubled by the year 1650. Human
numbers reached about one billion in the year 1800. The population doubled to two billion people by 1948, and then reached four
billion people by 1988. Thus the doubling times of human population over the last 2000 years have gone from 1650 years to just
40 years. This means our species has reached an exponential growth phase: this is growth at a rate that becomes ever more rapid in
proportion to the growing total number or size (Fig. 7). The human population at the time of this writing is 7.5 billion—nearly
double that of 1980. The population is currently rising by about 78 million people per year—about one-quarter of the entire human
population at the time of Christ. Even if per capita energy consumption had not increased in the last 200 years, modern energy
consumption would still be many times what it was in 1800, simply because of the number of humans on the planet.
The demographics of human population growth also bear our consideration. Population growth rates of many “developed”
countries in Europe, North America, Australia, and New Zealand started to level off in recent decades. The population of Russia
peaked in 1991. Russia’s population has been declining at a 0.5% annual rate, since then. Other countries with declining
populations include Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Greece, Hungary, Syria, Bulgaria, Ukraine, and South Africa. Population growth in
Italy is currently 0.03%—practically stagnant.
462 Climate Change and Energy

Fig. 7 Human population growth since 1800. Data from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2014).

Table 3 Human population growth rates in the fastest growing countries

Country Current population growth rate (%) Per capita gross national product (2013 US dollars) Population doubling time (years)

Lebanon 9.4 17400 7.4

Zimbabwe 4.4 953 15.9
South Sudan 4.1 1044 17.1
Jordan 3.9 5214 17.9
Niger 3.8 415 18.4
Uganda 3.3 572 21
Eritrea 3.2 544 21.9
Burundi 3.1 267 22.6
Chad 3.0 1054 23.3
Senegal 2.9 1047 24.1

Data from World Bank (2016a,b).

Population growth rates in the United States have averaged 0.7% in the 21st century. Similarly, New Zealand’s population
growth rate this year is 0.8%. If these trends were global, then the current exponential growth rate would be taking a sharp
downward turn. But there is enormous population growth taking place in developing countries, especially in Africa and parts of the
Middle East (Table 3). Lebanon currently has the highest rate of population growth, at 9.4% (World Bank, 2016a). At this rate, the
Lebanese population will double in the next 7 years. Other countries in the top 10 of growth rates include such poverty-stricken
states as Zimbabwe, Niger, Eritrea, Chad, and Senegal. The African countries listed in Table 3 have an average per capita GDP of
$737 US dollars per year (World Bank, 2016b). Compare this per capita GDP with the average from the European Union countries
($40,600), the United States ($53,042), and New Zealand ($41,555) and the disparity between the rapidly growing developing
countries and the slow-growth developed countries is quite remarkable. The salient message here is that the countries with rapidly
growing populations simply do not have the resources to control their population growth.

Climate Change Driven by Greenhouse Gas Warming

Atmospheric Impacts of Increased CO2
There is no doubt that the increase in greenhouse gases, especially atmospheric CO2 and methane, has caused significant warming
of the atmosphere in recent decades. As of 2016, the average global warming is 1.4 C above the long-term average for the 19th
century, and almost 1 C above the average from 1950 to 1980 (NASA, 2016). Most of this warming has occurred since the 1970s,
with the 20 warmest years having occurred since 1981 and with all 10 of the warmest years occurring in the past 12 years (Fig. 8).
 Climate Change and Energy 463

Fig. 8 Global land-ocean temperature index,  C, base period 1951–80. Data from NASA (2016).

Fig. 9 IPCC (2014) model scenarios predicting future global average temperatures: best- and worst-case scenarios.

According to the long-term pattern of Earth’s orbit around the Sun (orbital forcing) the current interglacial warm period should
soon be coming to an end. The long-term changes in Earth’s orbit around the Sun gave the planet a maximum of incoming solar
radiation (insolation) during the early part of the interglacial, about 11,000 years ago. In all previous Pleistocene interglacial
periods, carbon-dioxide levels have dropped as the levels of insolation have declined, during the latter part of the interglaciation.
As Ruddiman (2007) has pointed out, this makes the current interglacial (the Holocene) unique. The difference separating this
interglacial is the extra greenhouse gases being pumped into the atmosphere by the burning of fossil fuels.
There are various predictions made recently, concerning the rate and intensity of future atmospheric warming. The fifth IPCC
report (2014) includes best- and worst-case scenario predictions of global warming (Fig. 9). These estimates only extend as far as the
end of the 21st century.
As discussed more fully in the article concerning greatly increased CO2 (Elias, 2017), models by Giorgetta et al. (2013) extend
predictions two centuries further. One of the worst-case scenario models by Giorgetta et al. (2013) reflects a doubling of CO2, and
shows a rise in mean global of about 3–4 C temperature by 2100. The best-case scenario in the Giorgetta et al. (2013) scheme is
based on no change in CO2 from the current level (Fig. 10). This model predicts that global average temperature in 2100 would
actually fall between 1.5 C and 2 C below the 1950–80 average. The IPCC (2014) best-case scenario (model RCP2.6) assumes that
greenhouse gas emissions peak by 2020, then decline substantially. Under this scenario, global average temperature in 2100 would
fall between 0.2 C and 1 C above the long-term average. Unfortunately, the best-case model of the IPCC (2014) has already been
nullified by 2016 temperature records that show a 1.4 C rise over the long-term average.
Even the middle-ground estimate of global warming that assumes a doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels above preindustrial
levels would mean a rise of more than 3 C above the long-term average. To many people, an average warming of 3 C may not sound
particularly severe or damaging. If the temperature on a given summer’s day reaches 26 C, rather than 23 C, then most people
would find that acceptable. The problem here is one of average long-term climate, versus day-by-day weather. A 3 C change in a
464 Climate Change and Energy

Fig. 10 Giorgetta et al. (2013) model scenarios predicting future global average temperatures: best- and worst-case scenarios. From Giorgetta, M. A.,
Jungclaus, J., Reick, C. J., Legutke, S., Bader, J., et al. (2013). Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project phase 5. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 15, 572–597.

30-year average for the globe means that, in some regions, the long-term average will climb by 6 C, or more. Climatologists and
paleoclimate experts have observed that there is amplification of global warming trends in the Arctic. During the last interglacial
interval (c. 130,000–120,000 years ago), the fossil evidence indicates that the Arctic regions warmed 5 C on average—enough to
melt all regional glaciers and most of the Greenland ice sheet (Miller et al., 2010). The evidence indicates that the melted ice raised
sea level by about 5 m, enough to inundate most coastal cities around the world today.

Cryosphere Response to Global Warming

According to the 2014 IPCC report, the polar ice sheets have been losing mass since 1992, with more rapid melting since 2002.
Permafrost temperatures have increased in most regions since the early 1980s in response to increased surface temperature and
decreasing snow cover.
The decrease in polar ice sheet mass is putting freshwater into the world’s oceans. According to a study by Rignot et al. (2011),
the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets experienced a combined mass loss of 475  158 gigatons (109 tons) in 2006. This is
equivalent to a sea level rise of about 1.3 mm. The acceleration of ice sheet melting during the years 1993–2011 totaled about
36 gigatons of ice loss per year. If this rate of melting persists, then polar ice sheets will be the dominant contributor to sea level rise
in the 21st century.
As discussed more fully in the article concerning greatly increased CO2 (Elias, 2017), the melting of permafrost in the Arctic and
subarctic regions is ongoing (Fig. 11), and rising ground temperatures have been documented in many Arctic regions (Smith et al.,
2010). This melting begins with rising air temperatures. The warmth penetrates down through the frozen soil, gradually raising
temperatures through the soil profile. The effect is more pronounced in the highest latitudes, where global warming is amplified.
There is now about 10.5 million square kilometers of permanently frozen ground in the North. Computer modeling of future
climate change in the permafrost regions by Lawrence and Slater (2005) indicates that by 2100, 90% of this will have melted,
releasing gigatons of ancient carbon into the atmosphere in the form of CO2 and methane, in a positive feedback loop of warming.

Oceanic Response to Global Warming

Atmospheric warming is causing increases in ocean temperatures, staring with sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and then progressing
downwards through the water column. As discussed in the article, “Greatly increased CO2” (Elias, 2017) all ocean regions except the
northern North Atlantic showed steady rises in SST throughout the 20th century. Ocean warming patterns are complex, in which SST
values range from just 0.25 C warmer than the long-term average to as much as 1.5 C warmer than average. The least warmed waters
 Climate Change and Energy 465

Fig. 11 Changes in ground temperatures at two sites in the permafrost zone of northwestern North America. After Smith et al. (2010).

are in the subpolar and south Pacific. The greatest warmth is in the northwest Indian Ocean and in bands around the equatorial
Pacific, as well as subpolar waters of the North Atlantic. The surface warming has been penetrating to depth, with increasing
temperatures extending down to at least 700 m, especially since about 1980. In fact, the world’s oceans have absorbed about 90% of
the energy increase of the planet derived from greenhouse gas warming since 1950. This means that even if atmospheric
concentrations of greenhouse gases were to remain fixed at current levels, global surface warming would continue to increase for
centuries, as heat is released from the oceans.
The other unfortunate positive feedback loop that is bound to enhance global warming, especially in the Arctic, is the melting of
sea ice in the Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas. The Arctic Ocean and adjacent parts of the North Pacific and North Atlantic have had
extensive sea ice cover, except in the warmest interglacial intervals of the Pleistocene. During times of global warming, the loss of sea
ice cover forms part of a positive feedback loop that amplifies Arctic warming. Sea ice, often covered with snow during the winter,
reflects nearly all insolation back out to space. This reflectivity is known as albedo. The albedo of sea ice cover is very high, but if the
sea ice melts, the dark waters of northern oceans absorb far more solar energy. This warms arctic waters, but the warmed sea water
also contributes to onshore warming. When the air temperatures of terrestrial Arctic ecosystems become warmer, this drives a change
in vegetation cover from the relatively light-colored herbaceous vegetation to the darker dwarf shrub tundra. This darker vegetation
cover has a lower albedo than herbaceous tundra, so this adds to regional warming, contributing to the positive feedback loop of
regional warming.

Links Between Factors

High greenhouse gas emissions, exponential human population growth, and climate change are inexorably linked. The rise of
industrialization in the last two centuries started this linkage, but many lines of evidence point to the 1950s as the tipping point at
which exponential human growth and widespread industrialization of countries outside of Western Europe and North America led
to rapidly expanding burning of fossil fuels. So the planet seems locked on a collision course with rapid climate change. Is this
collision course inevitable? The world’s governments have been slow to respond to this situation. Recent initiatives, such as the Paris
climate accord in 2015, are promising, especially with the United States and China agreeing to abide by the agreement. But will
these efforts be enough to stall the pace of global warming? The intent of the Paris accord was to take the steps necessary to keep
global warming under 2 C. But the most recent assessment of the level of average global warming reveals that we have already
reached 1.4 C above the long-term average. The climate models for the coming decades suggest a best-case scenario of either 2 C
above the long-term average temperature, or a 3–5 C above that level, by the end of this century. Will the world’s governments
respond with the level of diligence and commitment necessary to stop the global warming juggernaut? What are the viable
solutions?
466 Climate Change and Energy

Technological Advances

Some argue that since humans are responsible for changing the Earth’s climate, so we must find ways of solving the problems,
through technological developments. Solar panels, wind turbines, ocean wave power extraction, the burning of organic wastes—
these all show great promise. However, as of this writing they are contributing only 3.5% of the global energy budget, while the
burning of fossil fuels is still providing two-thirds of our energy supply.
Another technological approach is to capture and then sequester the CO2 emissions below ground, to take them out of
atmospheric circulation. These technologies have the potential to greatly reduce CO2 emissions from new and existing coal- and
gas-fired power plants and large industries. CCS is a three-step process. First, CO2 is captured from power plants or industrial
processes. Then the captured gas is compressed and transported away from site, usually in pipelines. Then the compressed gas is
injected into underground into deep rock formations. These formations are often a mile or more beneath the surface and consist of
porous rock that holds the CO2. Overlying these formations are impermeable, nonporous layers of rock that trap the CO2 and
prevent it from migrating upward (US Environmental Protection Agency, 2016b).
A study by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2016a,b) concluded that the geologic storage
capacity of CO2 is hundreds of times greater than current global levels of emission, carbon sequestration could nearly eliminate
carbon dioxide emissions from industrial sources, at least in coming decades. Carbon capture and storage technologies are also
compatible with the existing energy infrastructure, and could therefore enable a flexible transition to a low-carbon future. The
technology remains at an early stage of development, however, and further research and development, as well as a range of
government support packages, are needed. Another aspect of carbon sequestration is through the conservation of natural carbon
sinks, such as the forests of the tropics, boreal, temperate forests.
It seems clear that the ultimate aim of reducing global warming through reduction in greenhouse gas emissions must come from
a combination of factors, including carbon sequestration (perhaps in the short term) and the development and use of renewable
energy sources on a much larger scale. Both of these will lead to reductions in fossil fuel emissions. Reduction of the human carbon
footprint, at all scales from our personal lifestyles through national and international initiatives, must play a role in this process, as
well. We simply cannot continue to consume nonrenewable energy resources at the current level. It is unsustainable, clearly
damaging the environment, and threatens the well-being of every ecosystem on the planet.

See also: Environmental Change and Energy; Overview Article for the Geologic History Section.

References
Blasing TJ (2016) Recent greenhouse gas concentrations. US Department of Energy, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. http://cdiac.ornl.gov/pns/current_ghg.html.
Elias SA (2017) Greatly increased CO2. In: DellaSala D and Golstein M (eds.) Encyclopedia of the Anthropocene. Amsterdam: Elsevier.
Finkenrath M, Smith J, and Volk D (2012) CCS retrofit—Analysis of the globally installed coal-fired power plant fleet. Paris: International Energy Agency.
Giorgetta MA, Jungclaus J, Reick CJ, Legutke S, Bader J, et al. (2013) Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project phase 5. Journal of Advances in Modelling Earth Systems 15: 572–597.
International Energy Agency (2012) World energy outlook: Executive summary. Paris: International Energy Agency.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2014) Climate change 2014: Synthesis report. In: Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R. K. and Meyer, L. A. (eds.) Contribution of
Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 151 pp. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC.
Lawrence DM and Slater AG (2005) A projection of severe near-surface permafrost degradation during the 21st century. Geophysical Research Letters 32: 5.
Miller GH, Brigham-Grette J, Alley RB, Anderson L, Bauch HA, et al. (2010) Temperature and precipitation history of the Arctic. Quaternary Science Reviews 29: 1679–1715.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) (2016) Global land–ccean temperature index,  C, base period 1951–1980. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/.
Our Finite World (2016) World energy consumption. https://ourfiniteworld.com/2012/03/12/world-energy-consumption-since-1820-in-charts/.
Rignot E, Velicogna I, van den Broeke MR, Monaghan A, and Lenaerts JT (2011) Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise. Geophysical
Research Letters 38: 5 pp.
Ruddiman WF (2007) The early anthropogenic hypothesis: Challenges and responses. Reviews of Geophysics 45: RG4001.
Smith SL, Romanovsky VE, Lewkowicz AG, et al. (2010) Thermal state of permafrost in North America: A contribution to the international polar year. Permafrost and Periglacial
Processes 21: 117–135.
The Shift Project (2016) Breakdown of electricity generation by energy source. http://www.tsp-data-portal.org/.
Trueman CN (2015) Coal mines in the industrial revolution. https://historylearningsite.co.uk.
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2016a) Carbon dioxide capture and sequestration. http://www.un.org/esa/desa/climatechange/carbon.html.
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2016b) Carbon capture and storage. http://www.un.org/esa/desa/climatechange/carbon.html.
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2014) World urbanization prospects: The 2014 revision. New York: United Nations.
US Energy Information Administration (2016a) Annual review of coal prices, 1949–2011. https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/showtext.php?t¼ptb0709.
US Energy Information Administration (2016b) Per capita energy consumption, USA. http://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/.
US Environmental Protection Agency (2016a) Overview of greenhouse gases. https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/overview-greenhouse-gases.
US Environmental Protection Agency (2016b) Carbon dioxide capture and sequestration. https://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/ccs/.
Whitmore M (2017) Development of coal-fired steam technology in Britain. In: DellaSala D and Golstein M (eds.) Encyclopedia of the Anthropocene. Amsterdam: Elsevier.
World Bank (2016a) Population growth rates by country. http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW.
World Bank (2016b) GDP per capita income by country. http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD.