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Russia's New Theory of Victory Foreign Affairs
Russia's New Theory of Victory Foreign Affairs
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Christmas Day will be a grim milestone for the Ukrainian people. It will
mark almost exactly ten months since Russian forces crossed into their
country, bringing devastation on a scale not seen in Europe since World
War II. Tens of thousands of Ukrainians have been killed. Millions have
�ed their homes. Most of the state has lost power, leading Kyiv to worry
that—as winter sets in—many of its citizens will freeze.
But Christmas will also be a grim marker for Russia. Moscow planned for
a short, victorious campaign. Ukraine has instead dealt it a bitter lesson
on modern war�ghting and national resilience. �e Ukrainians have
steadily degraded Russia’s military capacity by damaging its forces on the
battle�eld and in support areas. �ey have undermined Russia’s reputation
both around the globe and in the minds of Russia’s own soldiers,
commanders, and citizens. �e Ukrainians eschew methodical battles
with high attrition where possible, but they engage in close combat when
they have opportunities to gain ground. It has all been to great e�ect.
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Russia’s New Theory of Victory | Foreign Affairs https://www.foreignaffairs.com/print/node/1129687
Ukraine pushed Russia away from Kyiv, took back the northeast province
of Kharkiv, and liberated parts of the Donbas. Most recently, it freed
Kherson, the only provincial capital that Russia has succeeded in
capturing.
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many problems, such as its deteriorating equipment and low morale. But
Surovikin is working to unify the military under his command. He is
almost certainly drawing up battle plans that are clearly focused, unlike
past assaults that spread Russia’s troops thin. If Kyiv wants to keep the
upper hand, it will need to anticipate Surovikin’s strategy while
maintaining Western support—and that means continuing to innovate on
the battle�eld.
Similarly, Putin will sustain his energy warfare. He will keep depriving
Europe of gas in hopes that the continent will force Kyiv to agree to a
cease-�re as temperatures drop. He will also encourage more attacks on
Ukraine’s energy supplies. In Putin’s calculus, Russian strikes on
Ukrainian power stations will not only freeze the country’s people but also
cost Ukraine external assistance; foreign investors, after all, are unlikely to
return to the country when there is unreliable power. Even if the attacks
do not keep out investors, they will still prove economically costly for Kyiv
by stopping the Ukrainian power exports that began in July 2022.
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Consolidation will not, by itself, make Russia’s troops truly combat ready.
Surovikin commands an army that su�ers from low morale and keeps
losing its people and best equipment. So far, evidence suggests that the
troops Russia has mobilized to replace the dead and injured are not
receiving the kind of demanding training they need to succeed. During
the winter, at least, Surovikin will be on the defensive, doing whatever he
can to preserve his force in the face of ongoing Ukrainian attacks.
But he will begin to prepare Russia’s troops for new operations. Surovikin
will, for example, work to reconstitute battered units by deploying tens of
thousands of newly mobilized troops to Ukraine. If (and, almost certainly,
when) these troops prove to be of poor quality, he may work to improve
training back in Russia. He will try to take advantage of Russia’s ongoing
industrial mobilization to acquire more and better weapons. He will also
set up systems to safeguard key supply routes, build a more resilient
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Surovikin will likely look to carry out more “economy of force” missions:
military activities in which one party attempts to deceive its enemy in
ways that force it to expend large numbers of soldiers on unproductive
tasks. Russia, for example, has placed small contingents of soldiers in
Belarus in order to force Ukraine to keep larger contingents around Kyiv,
depriving the Ukrainian military of troops it could use elsewhere.
Surovikin will likely conduct more such activities to give his military a
better chance of success as he plans his next steps. Unless Russia is
thoroughly routed, Surovikin will want to begin o�ensive ground
operations that, if completed, would give Russia all or most of the
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�e general, of course, knows that Ukraine could again try to retake lost
territory. As a result, he is already ordering the military to construct more
defensive positions across the territory Russia controls. Surovikin is also
likely to conduct political activities to “Russify” the parts of Ukraine that
Russia occupies. �is process will resemble what Russia did in Kherson:
moving the local economy o� the Ukrainian hryvnia and onto the ruble,
changing the school curriculum, and the repulsive practice of stealing
Ukrainian children and sending them to Russia for adoption. Whether
these will be more e�ective going forward than it was in Kherson remains
to be seen.
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to battle�eld success.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his clever team are working
on messages aimed at maintaining the international community’s
sympathy. But they also need to keep the war on the front page of
Western newspapers and at the forefront of the West’s thinking. And the
best way to accomplish that is to do what Ukraine has been doing for the
past six months: winning. �e more victories that Kyiv can point to, the
more funding and weapons it is likely to receive from the West (rather
than calls to negotiate).
In executing these steps, Ukrainian leaders and planners can help prevent
a more energetic, integrated, and imaginative Russian military from
emerging. And if Ukraine can continue to win on the battle�eld, Kyiv
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might try to isolate and possibly even seize all of the Donbas and Crimea.
Retaking both areas is a stated goal of the Ukrainian government. But
successfully moving into these territories will prove highly challenging.
Taking Crimea would be particularly tricky, requiring that Ukraine carry
out new kinds of naval operations to stop Russia’s powerful Black Sea
Fleet from hitting Ukrainian troops as they cross into the peninsula. �e
Ukrainians would have to simultaneously coordinate amphibious,
airborne, ground, and other operations. �is task, although not
insurmountable, is di�cult. And some Western governments might view
a campaign for Crimea as beyond the purview of what they promised to
support—even though the peninsula legally remains part of Ukraine and
Zelensky has continually telegraphed his intention to take it back.
But there is a long way to go before Ukraine reaches the point where it
can invade Crimea. Right now, it has more immediate crises and
challenges. �e country, for instance, needs to �nd ways to quickly
reconstruct and harden its power and heating network in the face of
ongoing Russian attacks, including by getting more Western assistance.
(�e U.S. State Department’s promise to send more than $53 million in
energy equipment will help.) Kyiv will also need to carefully consider how
it should sequence and prioritize its 2023 ground, air, and information
operations, similar to the way it orchestrated its countero�ensives over the
last several months to force Russia into simultaneously �ghting in the
north, the east, and the south.
�ankfully, there are plenty of reasons to think that Kyiv can defeat even a
revitalized Russian military. Ukraine’s international in�uence campaigns
have been a model for other democracies to study and emulate. �e
Ukrainians have proven superior to the Russians at adapting and updating
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their tactics and military institutions. And they have far better morale.
War holds no certainties, regardless of previous victories. But if Ukraine
can maintain Western support, it can prove that Putin’s new theory of
Copyright © 2022 by the Council on Foreign Relations, Inc.
victory is just as misguided as was his last.
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