Statistical Methods in Criminal Justice: Probabilities & Margin of error

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Probabilities

Like any other form of research, research in criminal justice significantly relies on

estimates and predictions to arrive at informed deductions and conclusions. Probabilities are

critical in making predictions and estimates about various aspects of the criminal justice field

(Jennings & Reingle, 2019). They directly contribute to the progression and ultimate success of

research in this field. Further, most statistical methods used in analyzing data in criminal justice

research depend on probabilities to arrive at findings and conclusions. However, if probabilities

are not reliably calculated, they can mislead the researcher and negatively influence findings and

resulting conclusions. For example, predictive policing based on crime probabilities tends to be

skewed against minority communities (Sheehey,2020). While there are crime rates in these

communities, the real cause behind the statistic is not sought. Instead, more police resources are

sent to the areas with little to no effect on the crime rates.

References

Jennings, W. G., & Reingle, J. M. (2019). Criminological and criminal justice research methods.

Aspen Publishers.

Sheehey, B. (2020). Ethics Beyond Transparency: Resisting the Racial Injustice of Predictive

Policing. Techné: Research in Philosophy and Technology, 24(3), 256-281.

Margin of Error

The poll was on the views of the respondents on racial inequality in the country. It was

conducted between January 22 and February 5, 2019. Its margin of error for 6637 respondents

was plus or minus 1.7 points (± 1.7). The margin of error primarily represents the degree of error

in a survey result. If its value is high, then the less likely the results can be relied on. On the other
hand, if its value is low, the resulting findings are reliable and can be used to make meaningful

conclusions. The margin of error represents the researchers' confidence in their findings to

represent the population's views.

References

Holmes, A., Illowsky, B., & Dean, S. (2017). Introductory business statistics. Rice University.

Race in America 2019 methodology. (2021, September 22). Pew Research Center’s Social &

Demographic Trends Project. Retrieved November 10, 2021, from

https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2019/04/09/race-in-america-2019-

methodology/