Section One: Introduction

1. Global warming
2. The Framework Convention on Climate Change
3. The causes of global warming
4. Responsibility for global warming
5. The scientific evidence
6. The need for precautionary action

Section Two: Impact on Vietnam

1. Recent changes in climate and sea level

2. Future changes in climate and sea level
3. Sea level rise impacts
4. Biodiversity
5. Agriculture
6. Health
7. Water resources
8. The mangrove ecosystem

Section Three: Policy responses

1. The challenge facing Vietnam

2. Vietnam's policy on climate change
3. The National Action Plan
4. Reducing emissions from energy production
5. Reducing land-use emissions
6. Adapting to global warming
7. Implications for Vietnam

Further reading

Acknowledgements

Preface

Global Environmental Change

The purpose of this document is to inform policy makers, community leaders and other concerned
individuals in Vietnam and elsewhere about one of the global environmental issues which will
affect the lives and livelihoods of the people of Vietnam in years and decades to come.
Global environmental change is the term used to describe the large-scale problems that have been
created by the ill-judged use of the Earth's resources during the development of industrial society
over the past three centuries.

As a result of over-exploitation of the water, air and land of the planet, humanity faces climatic
change, sea level rise and ozone depletion, species extinctions and the loss of biodiversity, soil
erosion and desertification.

According to Dr Ha Nghiep, Assistant to the General Secretary of the Communist Party of

Vietnam, "humanity has abused the process of improving nature, posing danger to the ecology
and creating a threat which the present as well as future generations have to endeavour to
overcome."

Vietnam has only played a small part in creating these problems and faces many other challenges,
but it cannot avoid the consequences of global change. Long-term development plans will not be
sustainable if they do not take into account the possibility of climate change, sea level rise,
biodiversity loss and the many other impacts of global environmental change.

For a nation such as Vietnam, responding to global change is complicated by many factors.

For example, scientific uncertainties mean that it can be difficult to identify how a particular
geographical region or sector of activities might be affected. Because of more immediate
development priorities, the human, technical and financial resources needed to identify and
implement appropriate policies may not be available.

Despite these difficulties, prompt action is needed.

This briefing document presents a practical assessment of the threat of one aspect of global
change - climate change and sea level rise caused by greenhouse gas emissions - to assist the
formulation of sustainable policies which are appropriate to the present-day needs and
capabilities of Vietnam.

The production of this briefing document is the result of collaboration between the Center for
Environment Research Education and Development (Hanoi, Vietnam), the International Institute
for Environment and Development (London, United Kingdom) and the Climatic Research Unit,
School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, (Norwich, United Kingdom). The
material presented is largely based on research and policy analysis conducted by Vietnamese
experts. Material not otherwise attributed has been written by the editors

Introduction

Global Warming

This briefing document discusses the issue of global warming.

Global warming is the term used to describe the threat posed by the change in climate caused by
pollution of the atmosphere. The problem is sometimes referred to as global climate change or as
enhancement of the greenhouse effect.
Human activity is changing the composition of the atmosphere in a variety of ways and there is
concern that this process is altering the climate of the planet.

Many of the polluting gases trap heat near the Earth's surface, causing temperatures to rise and
climate to change. This process is known as the greenhouse effect. The pollutants which are
causing global warming are known as greenhouse gases.

It is feared that, as a result of global warming, regional weather and climate will alter. Sea level
will rise as the oceans warm and expand and glaciers melt. Few aspects of life will remain
untouched. Natural ecosystems, agriculture and all forms of human activity dependent on the
environment will be vulnerable.

The international community is concerned about global warming and, in June 1992, reached
agreement on the Framework Convention on Climate Change. The aim of the Convention is to
reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and to assist adaptation to the changing environment.

The participants at the International Conference on Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Impacts,
held in Hanoi in November 1991, recommended that "consideration of long-term climate change
should be an integral part of the formulation of a national strategy for sustainable development"
and much has already been achieved by Vietnamese scientists and policy makers.

Responding to this environmental threat may appear difficult for a nation such as Vietnam faced
by more immediate development priorities. Yet many of the ways in which the problem of climate
change might be reduced are straightforward, have immediate benefits and represent common-
sense practicality.

• The best way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is to ensure high levels of efficiency
and low levels of waste, saving both natural resources and money.
• Protecting agriculture, water supplies and natural ecosystems from long-term climate
change will improve resistance to present-day disasters.
• Taking advantage of opportunities for research, international co-operation and funding
presented by global climate change initiatives will strengthen Vietnam's ability to
respond to local as well as to global environmental problems.

The people and government of Vietnam are well aware of the dangers posed by existing
environmental problems. The experience gained in responding to these difficulties will prove
invaluable in reducing the impact of climate change and sea level rise.

The Framework Convention on Climate Change

During the 1980s, a series of scientific reviews examined the evidence for concern about global
warming and concluded that the threat of climate change should be taken seriously.

In response to international concern, the World Meteorological Organization and the United
Nations Environment Programme, at the request of the United Nations, created the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. Composed of three working groups
on science, impacts and policy options, the IPCC issued its first reports in August 1990. Its
findings were based on a state-of-the-art review of current understanding of the greenhouse
problem.
The IPCC concluded that the scientific evidence was sufficient to warrant precautionary action to
curb greenhouse gas emissions and to anticipate potential impacts.

Recognizing that a global problem such as climate change required a truly international response,
the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee was then established to draft a climate convention
which was eventually agreed at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development
in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992.

The Framework Convention on Climate Change has been signed by more than 150 nations. These
nations commit themselves to the overall aim of "...stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system... [to be achieved]... within a time frame sufficient to allow
ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure food production is not threatened, and
to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner."

Full text of the Framework Convention

The commitments that all Parties to the Convention are expected to act upon are listed in the
accompanying box. The Convention is vague concerning targets for emission control, but it
places the burden of responsibility for reducing greenhouse gas emissions on the industrialized
nations in view of their historical responsibility for atmospheric pollution.

The Convention recognizes the particular circumstances of developing nations and that these
circumstances will affect the extent to which they can carry out their commitments, stating that
"economic and social development and poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities
of the developing country Parties."

Any additional financial costs incurred by developing nations in meeting their commitments
under the Framework Convention are to be covered by a special fund, managed, at present, by the
Global Environment Facility.

The Global Environment Facility was established in 1990 by the World Bank, United Nations
Development Programme and the United Nations Environment Programme, in consultation with
representatives of both industrialized and developing nations.

The aim of the Facility is to provide a channel through which the international community can
provide assistance to developing nations in their response to global environmental problems such
as climate change, biodiversity, marine pollution and ozone depletion

The Causes of Global Warming

The world needs the greenhouse effect. Without it, the planet would be around 30 deg. C (degrees
Celsius) colder than it is at present.

Greenhouse gases found naturally in the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide and water vapour,
allow energy from the sun to pass down through the atmosphere unhindered but trap heat radiated
by the surface of the planet before it can leave the lower levels of the atmosphere.
Global warming is a problem because humanity is releasing greenhouse gases into the
atmosphere at an ever-increasing rate and destroying the natural processes that remove
greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. The result is that the greenhouse effect has become
stronger.

The major greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide, methane, the halocarbons (including the
chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs) and nitrous oxide.

Of the major greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide accounts for over half the strengthening of the
greenhouse effect at present, methane accounts for around a sixth, the halocarbons a tenth and
nitrous oxide a few percent. Other miscellaneous gases, including surface ozone, account for the
remainder.

Sources of the greenhouse gases in terms of their contribution to global warming during the
1980s.

World-wide, the production of energy from fossil fuels - coal, gas and oil - is the major single
source of greenhouse gases.

The burning of coal, gas and oil is the dominant form of commercial energy production. Close to
85% of the energy generated commercially for use by industry, in the provision of heating,
cooling and lighting and for transportation is provided by these fuels.

During the 1980s, energy generation was responsible for over half of the global warming
problem. In 1990, the burning of fossil fuels released about six thousand million tonnes of carbon
into the atmosphere, as well as other greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrous oxide and the
pollutants which generate ozone.

The other major source of greenhouse gases is agriculture, forestry and related land-use activities.
These account for close to a quarter of the global warming problem, releasing a range of gases
including methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

Changing land use - for example, the conversion of forest into cropland or pasture - is responsible
for the release of between one and two thousand million tonnes of carbon a year world-wide.
Most emissions are the result of deforestation.

Changing land use represents Vietnam's main contribution to global warming. Land-use change in
Vietnam released ten times as much carbon into the atmosphere as did energy production during
the late 1980s.
Other forms of agricultural activity also release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Methane,
for example, is produced in the digestive systems of herbivores such as beef cattle, dairy cows,
goats and sheep. It is also produced by organic decomposition in water-logged areas such as
paddy fields. World-wide, rice production may be responsible for as much as a fifth of the
methane released into the atmosphere (although there are uncertainties regarding this estimate).

The main activities giving rise to greenhouse gas emissions - energy generation and the
development of industry and agriculture - are activities that are fundamental to the historical
process of economic growth through industrialization.

Does this mean that industrialization need be inherently damaging? According to Dr Ha Nghiep,
Assistant to the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, "it is necessary to
combine economic development with the healthy development of the environment."

It is the particular model of economic growth pioneered by the northern nations that is
unsustainable, containing within itself the mechanism of its own destruction.

Responsibility for Global Warming

Participants at the 1989 New Delhi Conference, Global Warming and Climate Change:
Perspectives from Developing Countries, concluded with grim irony that the effects of global
warming will be greatest in the developing world whilst the source of the problem is the pollution
caused by the industrialized North.

The primary responsibility for global warming lies with the industrialized nations. As the authors
of a 1990 assessment by the United States Environmental Protection Agency observed, "most of
the greenhouse gas emissions currently committing the world to climate change can be traced to
activities by the industrialized countries."

Over the period since 1870, the developing world has been responsible for no more than 15% of
total carbon emissions. Today, the industrialized nations, with only a quarter of the world's
population, are directly responsible for well over one half the greenhouse gas emissions giving
rise to global warming.

The United States, with a mere 4% of the world's population, contributes over a fifth of the global
total. A citizen of the United States generates around five metric tons of carbon per year
compared with the one metric ton produced by a Vietnamese citizen.

The Response Strategies Working Group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
recognized the responsibility of the industrialized nations, concluding that "a major part of
emissions affecting the atmosphere at present originates in industrialized countries where the
scope for change is greatest. Industrialized countries should adopt domestic measures to limit
climate change by adapting their own economies in line with future agreements to limit
emissions."

The industrialized nations should also "co-operate with developing countries in international
action, without standing in the way of the latter's development, by contributing additional
financial resources, by appropriate transfer of technology, by engaging in close co-operation
concerning scientific observation, by analysis and research, and finally by means of technical co-
operation geared to forestalling and managing environmental problems."
However, they also noted that "emissions from developing countries are growing and may need to
grow in order to meet their development requirements and thus, over time, are likely to represent
an increasingly significant percentage of global emissions. Developing countries have the
responsibility, within the limits feasible, to take measures to suitably adapt their economies."

The future contribution of the developing world could rise considerably if, in the process of
industrialization, it follows the past example of the North.

As a result of population growth and economic development, some analysts have projected that
the total contribution of the developing nations to the problem of global warming may exceed that
of the industrialized nations by the middle of the 21st century. Even then, though, the contribution
per head of population will remain well below that of the North.

The immediate problem is not the future contribution of the developing nations but the
overconsumption of the North in the present-day.

"Developing countries increasingly find themselves put in a position where they are made
responsible for global environmental problems they did little to create," observes Sir Shridath
Ramphal, former Secretary-General of the Commonwealth. The weight of responsibility lies with
the North.

"The cost of limiting emissions of greenhouse gases has to be borne by those societies who are
responsible for the cumulative increase in their concentration levels," concludes Rajendra
Pachauri, Director of the Tata Energy Research Institute in New Delhi. It is by these nations that
the first and most significant measures must be taken if global warming is to be controlled.

On the basis that the "polluter must pay", it is only right and proper that the North should bear the
costs of its past pollution of the atmosphere by taking the initiative in controlling greenhouse gas
emissions and by supporting the efforts of developing nations to adopt sustainable models of
economic development.

The Scientific Evidence

The greenhouse effect itself is a well-established physical process. Concern about global warming
is based on the scientific evidence that the greenhouse effect is being strengthened as a result of
human activity.

• First, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has risen dramatically over
the past three centuries and human activity is the prime cause.
• Second, the temperature of the planet has risen by 0.5 deg. C over the past 100 years and
this warming is consistent with the predictions of climate models based on the change in
atmospheric composition.
• Third, climate theory, supported by computer model projections, predicts an
unprecedented rise in global temperature and sea level over coming decades, with
substantial impacts on human welfare.

The composition of the atmosphere has already undergone a radical change as a result of
industrialization.
Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, derived from direct observations and ice core
measurements.

The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen by a quarter since the late 18th century,
to a 1991 concentration of 355ppmv (parts per million by volume). The rate of change is
accelerating and around half the increase has occurred since the 1950s.

There is now twice as much methane in the air as there was three centuries ago and levels of the
other major greenhouse gases, the halocarbons, nitrous oxide and surface ozone, are all rising
significantly.

This change in the greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere should already have affected global
climate. Computer models predict that global warming of between 0.5 and 1.0 deg. C should have
occurred over the past one hundred years. The world has, in fact, warmed by about 0.5 deg. C
during this period. This is consistent with the computer model predictions, although at the lower
end of the range of projections.

The temperature of the planet's surface is now higher than it has been at any time during the
period of instrumental observations. World-wide, six of the warmest years on record have been
experienced since 1980.

This global change in climate has affected individual regions. Annual temperature over Vietnam
as a whole has risen by 0.2-0.3 deg. C over the present century. The change has been greatest in
the spring months and in the south of the country and has accelerated over the most recent
decades.

According to projections made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, global

temperature may stand up to 4 deg. C higher than at present by the year 2100 if no concerted
effort is made to control greenhouse gas emissions.

Placing this in historical context, the temperature rise that brought the planet out of the most
recent ice age was not much more than 4 deg. C. That change in climate took thousands of years,
not decades. The world has not experienced temperature levels 2 deg. C higher than at present for
125,000 years.
Global warming represents a substantial change in the planetary environment. That climate
change and sea level rise will have grave consequences, particularly for the developing world, is
beyond doubt.

Developing nations are heavily dependent on natural resources and ecosystems which are, in turn,
dependent on climate. They lack the financial and technical resources to adapt to climate change
and are particularly vulnerable to specific aspects of the impact of global warming, such as sea
level rise, flood, drought and storm.

Then there is the threat to global food security. Robin Clarke, writing for the United Nations
Environment Programme, observed that "in many developing countries, yields and production
are low and unstable, food stocks are small, and there is a limited ability to import food.
Furthermore, the major exporters and importers of grain are in the temperate regions. All these
factors increase the vulnerability of tropical and sub-tropical countries to climatic variation."

The basic mechanisms underlying the greenhouse effect are well-understood and sufficient
information is available concerning future impacts to support the conclusion that global warming
poses a grave threat to human welfare.

The Need for Precautionary Action

While the scientific evidence is convincing, there are many uncertainties in understanding of the
problem of global warming.

The fact that there is broad agreement between the model forecasts and observed trends in global
temperature provides strong support for the greenhouse theory, but it is not conclusive proof.

There are other possible explanations for the warming trend: natural mechanisms of climatic
change such as a change in the degree of volcanic or solar activity or in the distribution of ocean
temperatures.

The temperature rise must continue for some years, surpassing the natural variability in climate,
before other explanations can be wholly discounted and enhancement of the greenhouse effect
firmly established as the cause. This is why the scientific community has yet to state with
certainty that the greenhouse effect is responsible for the observed change in climate.

The range of projections of the future change in global-mean surface air temperature and sea
level. The central line indicates the most likely estimate and the shaded area shows the range of
possibilities. Based on the 1992 IPCC assessment.

Turning to the future, the projections of climate change for the 21st century are uncertain because
of limited understanding of the manner in which the climate of the Earth will respond to the
change in the composition of the atmosphere.

Furthermore, determining the ultimate impact of global warming on humanity is not an easy
matter.

Forecasts are necessarily speculative. They rest on uncertain projections of changes in regional
climate, highly simplified computer models of basic physical, biological and social processes,
experience of past impacts and conjecture.

Given the uncertainties, is the evidence sufficient to justify immediate action to combat global
warming?

According to the Ministerial Declaration of the Second World Climate Conference, held in 1990:
"In order to achieve sustainable development in all countries and to meet the needs of present
and future generations, precautionary measures to meet the climate challenge must anticipate,
prevent, attack, or minimise the causes of, and mitigate the adverse consequences of,
environmental degradation that might result from climate change. Where there are threats of
serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for
postponing cost-effective measures to prevent such degradation.

The international community has advised that, at this time, precautionary action should be taken
in response to global warming.

Precautionary measures are those which would reduce the threat of global warming but are low in
cost or else have significant benefits in other areas (for example, by reducing other pressing
social, economic or environmental problems).

The reasons for this recommendation are twofold:

• On the one hand, the potential threat posed by global warming is so great that measures
are needed immediately to avert the worst consequences. It would not be wise to delay
action.
• On the other hand, there are many scientific uncertainties and it would be unwise to
devote considerable resources to combating a threat which may not be as severe as
currently envisaged.

There are, in fact, many low-cost measures which could be taken now which would reduce the
future threat of global warming and, at the same time, have immediate benefits in the present-day.

These cost-effective, precautionary measures would provide the basis for further action if
advances in scientific understanding suggested they were needed and, as they also address current
problems, they would be of advantage even if global warming proved not as substantial as feared.

Impact on Vietnam
Recent changes in climate and sea level

Past variations in the climate of Vietnam provide an important context for the future changes that
may accompany global warming. They can be used to assess the significance of future trends.
Their consequences for human welfare indicate the nature and scale of the potential impact of
global warming.

The climate record for much of the region begins in the late 19th century. The annual temperature
record shows that temperatures remained relatively constant over much of the period 1895-1980.
Abrupt warming has occurred since the 1970s.

The net warming over the period of record amounts to 0.27 deg. C. Over the region as a whole,
the warming has been greatest in the spring months.

Annual surface air temperature for the globe

(upper time series) and for the region of Vietnam (lower time series).

More detailed analysis of observations for the past 30 years indicates that temperatures have
tended to be higher in the south in recent years, with the trend being most noticeable in the
summer months.

Variations in rainfall amount have also been observed in recent decades. Since the 1960s, there
has been an increase in annual rainfall in the north of Vietnam and a decrease in the south.

The Hydrometeorological Service has studied longer-term variations in water availability. This
research has shown that a marked decrease in run-off affected both the Red River and the
Mekong River during the 1940s and 1950s.

From the late 1960s to the present, the run-off of the Lo River has been increasing. Measurements
taken on the Mekong River at Vientiane also indicate an increase in run-off during the 1960s.

These trends in run-off are due to a combination of human influence and fluctuations in rainfall
over the catchment areas of the rivers. Analysis of relevant rainfall data indicates a variable
pattern of trends in time and space over recent decades, although the main features of the trends
agree with the assessment of run-off variations.
The risk of extreme weather events has also varied over the years. According to data collected by
the Hydrometeorological Service, there has been an increase in the number of tropical cyclones
affecting Vietnam since the 1950s.

Long data series for the chief stations in the low-lying plains in the north and south of Vietnam
have been examined for evidence of sea level rise.

The longest and most reliable record is for Hondau in North Vietnam. A sea level rise of 0.19 cm
a year has been observed at this station over the period 1955-1990. This is in broad agreement
with the observed rise in global-mean sea level.

The station at Vungtau in South Vietnam shows a different trend. This may be an unreliable result
as the siting of this station has changed, although stations in Central Vietnam also show a
different trend from Hondau.

It is impossible at this time to determine whether these past trends in climate and sea level are the
result of global warming or natural climate variability, or to a combination of these factors.

Whatever the cause, it is clear that the climate of Vietnam is already undergoing considerable
change which should be taken into account when formulating development plans.

Based on material provided by

Dr Nguyen Huu Ninh, Director, Center for Environment Research Education and Development
Dr Hoang Minh Hien, Hydrometeorological Service
Professor Nguyen Ngoc Thuy, Director, Marine Hydrometeorological Centre
Dr Tranh Thanh Xuan, Hydrometeorological Service

Future changes in climate and sea level

In order to forecast the change in climate likely to affect Vietnam as global warming develops, it
is necessary to use computer models of the climate system.

Because of uncertainties in the science of climate change, it is not possible to give firm
predictions but a range of possible projections can be defined.

Climate model results have been used to assess likely changes in Vietnam's climate over the
period to 2100 and estimates are presented here for the likely range of temperature and rainfall
trends for the areas surrounding Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. The projections are based on the
1992 IPCC assessment.

According to the most likely estimate, annual temperatures in the area of Hanoi may rise by just
over 1 deg. C by the year 2050 and by close to 2.5 deg. C by the year 2100. This is almost ten
times the warming rate experienced over the past 80 years. If the most severe projections are
correct, temperatures may rise by over 4 deg. C by the end of the 21st century.
 The future change in
temperature (left) and precipitation (right) for the area of Hanoi. The central line indicates the
most likely estimate and the shaded area shows the range of uncertainty.

There is considerable uncertainty as far as the regional change in rainfall is concerned.

Although the forecasts tend towards an increase in rainfall amounts in the Hanoi area, the range
of possibilities spans a decline of close to 15% below the present-day average through to an
increase of over 30% by the year 2100. The most likely estimate is a minor increase in rainfall of
2% or so by the year 2050 and 5% by the year 2100.

The increase in rainfall in North Vietnam is consistent with more northward penetration of the
summer monsoon.

Analysis of future conditions in the area of Ho Chi Minh City indicates that the change in
temperature and rainfall in the south may not be as great.

The future change in

temperature (left) and precipitation (right) for the area of Ho Chi Minh City. The central line
indicates the most likely estimate and the shaded area shows the range of uncertainty.

The most likely projection is a rise in temperature of around 2 deg. C and a very slight increase in
rainfall by the end of the 21st century. It is, however, possible that the change in climate may be
more severe, with a rise in temperature of 3.6 deg. C and a 5% decline in rainfall amounts by the
year 2100.
Available moisture throughout the country, and particularly in the south, is likely to be reduced
due to increased evaporation as temperatures rise. This could well lead to a marked increase in
the frequency of droughts and may prove the major impact of climate change.

Tropical cyclone numbers may also be affected by the regional change in climate, with an
increase in frequency and, perhaps, strength expected to occur.

By the year 2100, global-mean sea level may stand between 32 and 64cm above the present-day
level, with a rise of 45cm the most likely estimate. (In considering the regional implications of
this change, it is necessary to take account of local tectonic and anthropogenic factors.)

The likely global trend represents an increase in the rate of change in sea level along Vietnam's
coast by a factor of two to three. For Hondau, this would mean a rise in sea level of up to 64cm
by the year 2100, compared with a rise of about 20cm if the trend of the most recent decades
continues.

Further work is needed to provide a more detailed projection of Vietnam's climate in years to
come. The results of climate modelling experiments must be supplemented by understanding of
regional conditions based on the experience of Vietnamese experts.

Sea level rise impacts

Coastal areas at or below one metre of elevation constitute much of Vietnam's 3,000 km coastline.
Sea level rise presents a serious threat to these coastal areas in particular, to the two low-lying
deltaic areas of the north and south. Even a limited rise in sea level over coming decades could
seriously affect the people and nation of Vietnam.

Sea level rise will result in:

• loss of land;
• increased vulnerability to flooding, including storm events;
• accelerated erosion along the coasts and in river mouths;
• increased salinization; and
• changes in the physical characteristics of tidal rivers.

The most fertile agricultural lands, together with 50% of the population, are centred on the low-
lying Red River and the Mekong delta regions.

Sea level rise could have drastic consequences for the livelihoods and socio-economic well-being
of the inhabitants of these areas. It is likely that valuable arable land would be lost. Shrimp and
crab farms may have to be relocated and coastal fisheries might disappear.

The biophysical characteristics of neighbouring regions not permanently inundated by sea water
could be affected and this may render these areas unsuitable for agriculture.

For example, the irrigation of paddy rice may be seriously affected as a result of the increased
intrusion of saline or brackish water. Estuarine and riverine areas could be affected by changes in
the tidal regime and in river currents.
Biological resources in coastal areas provide an important base for socio-economic development.
They are significant for the ecological balance and for scientific research and provide an
important service of coastal protection.

Vietnam's rich diversity of coastal flora and fauna might be substantially reduced and unique
habitats may disappear. Mangrove and cajeput forests - important ecosystems in low-lying areas -
may be reduced in extent or lost completely.

Marshy areas in river estuaries are habitats and resting places for birds and these will be
threatened by sea level rise. Likewise, sandy stretches where sea turtles lay their eggs may be
flooded. The development of coral reefs could be affected.

Research currently being undertaken in Vietnam indicates that significant impacts due to sea level
rise may already be occurring.

Data from the past decade show that, in the Cau Mau coastal region, more than 600 hectares of
land has been eroded from the mouth of the Bo De River with strips of land 200 m wide lost in
some locations.

Observations also indicate that increased salt intrusion is causing a gradual change in species
distribution in the mangrove forests. The more that the mangrove forest area is reduced, the
greater the impact from salt water intrusion and erosion on the neighbouring land and the greater
the vulnerability to storm-induced flooding.

The social and economic consequences of sea level rise could well be wide-ranging. Port
facilities may have to be re-engineered. Coastal industries may be lost. Transportation will be
disrupted. The provision of drinking water may be affected as saline water penetrates aquifers.

Communities living in coastal areas vulnerable to increased flooding may have to be relocated.
This would increase pressure on the remaining land and exacerbate problems associated with
forest destruction and ecosystem degradation as new agricultural tracts are created. Biodiversity
would be degraded, land erosion would increase and flooding may worsen as a result.

In response to the impact of sea level rise, increased expenditure will be necessary on flood
protection and the planning and zoning of activities in coastal areas, including agriculture,
industry, transportation and tourism, may have to be rethought.

Sea level rise will have significant implications for all activities in low- lying areas. Given the
planning timescales involved, it is important that serious and prompt consideration be given to
suitable responses in relevant policy areas such as coastal protection, agriculture, industry and
land use zoning.

Based on material provided by

Dr Nguyen Huu Ninh, Director, Center for Environment Research Education and Development
Professor Phan Nguyen Hong, Director, Mangrove Ecosystem Research Centre, Hanoi National
Pedagogic University

Biodiversity
Biodiversity, vital for human survival, is at risk from climate change. Any reduction of a species
could cause ecosystem degradation and subsequent difficulties in the ability of local populations
to preserve a quality of life.

This problem is of great significance to a developing country such as Vietnam because of its
limited technical and financial resources. Survival in the present day and for future generations
largely depends on the manner in which natural resources, especially biological resources, are
exploited.

Vietnam possesses a diversity of biological resources, many of which are species endemic to
Southeast Asia. These rich resources have been indispensable to Vietnamese stability and
development. However, many of these resources are now being depleted.

Forest and wetland areas are being rapidly reduced and 355 plant species and 365 animal species
are now under threat. Vietnamese ecosystems, such as the tropical forest, are both diverse and
fragile and will easily deteriorate with irregular climate fluctuations.

For humanity, it is relatively easy to change habitat when the environment alters but many animal
and plant species cannot respond so readily. Many species may be on the verge of extinction
because they will not have enough time to adapt to a swift change in climate.

Resistance to climate change in species which have a small population appears to be very low.
Inventories made by the World Conservation Union indicate that, world-wide, the number of
endangered species extends to thousands. In Vietnam, it is around six hundred. Biological species
extinction and biodiversity degradation are irreversible losses to humanity.

Global warming and climate change also favour the development of pests and viruses, especially
viruses that cause disease to humans, domestic animals and crops in tropical regions.

Sea level rise will have substantial consequences for biological diversity.

Vietnam embraces around 3,000 km of coastline and there are large areas where the altitude is
only one metre above or below mean sea level, for example, within the Red River Delta and the
Mekong Delta. More than half of the country's population converges in these two areas. Vietnam's
vulnerable topography also includes small coastal islands and many large coral reefs.

Forest loss over the period 1943-1982.

A rise in sea level would inundate wetlands and lowlands, erode shorelines, exacerbate coastal
flooding, increase the salinity of estuaries and aquifers and otherwise impair water quality, alter
tidal ranges in rivers and bays and alter the locations where rivers deposit sediment.

Intertidal zones may be modified radically and ecosystems such as the mangrove forest could
disappear. The physical and morphological characteristics of shallow waters might change
considerably, impairing the functioning of these ecological systems. The complete loss of
resources such as bird life, fish spawning and nursery grounds and shellfish production is
possible.

Extending over 200,000 hectares, the mangrove forests of Vietnam provide a rich habitat for
many species. The supply of marine products such as shrimp, crab and fish contributes
substantially to the livelihoods of local communities. Mangrove forests take between 100 and
1,000 years to form and mature. Any significant rise in sea level would be to the detriment of all
that live in or rely on this ecosystem.

Climate change and sea level rise will also threaten lagoons, the spawning places of sea turtles.
Coral reefs too are expected to suffer from climate change and sea level rise.

Like many other developing countries, Vietnam relies extensively on its natural resources. Losses
in biological resources caused by climate change and sea level rise will pose many difficulties in
future socio- economic development.

Based on material provided by

Professor Vo Quy, Director, Centre for Natural Resources Management and Environmental
Studies, Hanoi University

Agriculture

Global warming could have serious consequences for agricultural production. Some effects may
be beneficial but many would be adverse. Not only might yields and quality be affected but crops
may have to be grown in different locations as climate conditions alter.

Agricultural production is likely to be affected by:

• sea level rise;

• changes in the intensity and the potential for extreme weather events (such as typhoons,
droughts, floods and cold outbreaks in northern regions);
• local climate change (temperature rise, rainfall variation and the potential for
desertification in southern areas);
• pest development;
• erosion and changes in soil fertility; and
• the effects on growth of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Sea level rise presents a major threat to Vietnamese agriculture.

Agricultural lands are concentrated along the coast in the two major deltas. Sea level rise
threatens these regions and would drastically affect their peoples. Arable land might be reduced,
some areas could become salinated and people may have to be relocated, increasing pressure on
resources in neighbouring regions.

Analysis of the response of crop yields to past climate fluctuations shows that the productivity of
the food crops and cereal crops of Vietnam varies greatly. Crop productivity variations in the
north are more marked than those of the south and cereal crop yields vary more distinctly than
those of rice.

Crop losses are often caused by an accumulation of factors.

The most serious losses are caused by typhoons (20-50%), although the area affected tends to be
limited. Droughts, long periods of sunshine in winter and water-logging are also important (10-
30%) and affect a wider area. Cold spells, dry spells and dry-hot winds causes less severe damage
(5-20%) and affect a limited area. In the past, rainfall has been a more important factor than
temperature.

Studies by Vietnamese scientists have shown that the northern region, especially the Red River
Delta, is the most sensitive to present-day climate variability. Rainfall fluctuations are strongest in
this area and drought and flooding frequently limit crop yields.

In the north of Central Vietnam, meteorological disasters such as storms have their greatest
impact on agriculture. There is concern that the typhoon season may increase in severity and
become more prolonged in the future. This will have serious consequences for the region,
increasing wind damage and flooding.

In upland regions, the rise in temperature may enable cultivation at higher elevations, although
crops grown at present may be lost completely in some areas.

The vulnerability of southern regions is likely to rise as global warming develops. Where climate
used to be stable, and impacts on agriculture less frequent, climate change is now occurring at a
higher rate.

The increased incidence of drought in the south of the country as rising temperature increases
evaporation water loss would be a major impact of global warming. The range of crops that can
be grown may be reduced. Pest outbreaks may become more frequent as temperature and
humidity increase in the winter months.

Taking future trends into consideration, the Mekong Delta and the coastal areas in the north of the
central region are considered the most vulnerable to the changes expected to occur as a result of
global warming.

Further research is necessary to define the likely impacts of global warming on Vietnamese
agriculture in greater detail and to identify the most appropriate means of adapting food
production to the changing environment and ensuring sustainable yields.

Based on material provided by

Dr Nguyen Huu Ninh, Director, Center for Environment Research Education and Development
Dr Hoang Minh Hien, Hydrometeorological Service
Health

Climate shapes not only habits of life but also human characteristics and physical forms. Global
warming will lead to a series of changes in the living environment, significantly affecting the
health of the human population.

Analysis of the forthcoming climatic change indicates that hot and humid weather with negative
effects on health may exert a greater influence as temperatures rise.

Sultry weather is likely to increase in summer and may appear earlier in spring in North Vietnam
in the Red River Delta. The hot weather will increase in the south. In the coastal area of Central
Vietnam and the low-lying area in the northwest, dry, hot weather could possibly increase.

The likely impact on human health can be determined by consideration of the role played by
climatic factors in the present-day. Some of these influences may decrease in importance,
reducing associated impacts on human health, whilst others will become more important.

First, weather and climate play the role of a direct agent. The solar regime in low latitude areas
with its high radiation intensity results in heat illnesses and sunstroke, commonly found in
summer in almost all low-lying areas. The prolonged stress imposed on the body's heat-adjusting
system in hot and humid environments is also the cause of asthenia, giving rise to the
development of other diseases.

In some coastal areas in Central Vietnam and in the low valleys in the northwest, the hot and dry
weather due to the föhn effect creates other impacts. Low humidity facilitates sweat evaporation
and the maintenance of the heat balance of the body. Due to quick evaporation, the body may lose
water and the mineral balance is disrupted, leading to exhaustion.

The existence of the cold winter in the north, especially in the mountain areas, is the cause of
syndromes relating to cold, such as frostbite, pneumonia, bronchitis and other respiratory
diseases. These may become reduced in frequency as temperatures rise.

Second, climate and weather have the role of a stimulant, resulting in complaints related to the
cardio-vascular, respiratory, nervous and digestive systems.

In the northern winter, the prolonged cold and damp air is a favourable element for chronic
diseases of the respiratory system such as tuberculosis, whooping cough, sore throat and
bronchitis. These problems may become less frequent as global warming develops.

Rapid changes in the weather during the period of seasonal transition, especially ahead of cold
fronts associated with northeast winds, exert a strong influence on several kinds of disease and
can cause death. Most notable amongst these impacts are cardio-vascular complaints in the
elderly, such as high blood pressure and cardiac infarction.

Changes in atmospheric electric fields before cold fronts, typhoons and thunderstorms greatly
stimulate diseases relating to the nervous and respiratory system, such as whooping cough,
asthma, bronchitis, sore throat, rheumatism and spinal diseases.
Weather and climate also affect human health indirectly. Hot and humid environments represent
favourable conditions for the development of bacteria, insects and other disease carriers such as
flies and rats.

Digestion-related diseases such as diarrhoea and dysentery develop mainly in this weather. Other
diseases, such as measles, dengue fever and Japanese B encephalitis, occur and develop in close
relation with the development of mosquitoes and other insects.

The explosion and expansion of diseases such as dengue fever and influenza are also the result of
certain climate and weather conditions, namely warm-humid weather in spring and cold fronts in
autumn.

Finally, there is concern that climate warming in an already humid environment will lead to a
marked increase in the weather patterns that favour disease-carrying bacteria.

It is clear that planning the provision of health care and associated facilities should take into
account the possibility of the changing incidence of disease and other health problems.

Based on material provided by

Dr Tran Viet Lien, Hydrometeorological Service

Water resources

Global warming is likely to affect the availability and quality of water resources throughout
Vietnam as temperature rise affects evaporation rates and rainfall patterns alter.

Climate model projections have been used to assess likely impacts on water resources in North,
Central and South Vietnam up to the year 2030.

Most water resources in the North come from the Red River and the Thai Binh river system, with
an annual flow of 137,000 million m³ of which 90,000 million m³ are generated in the territory of
Vietnam.

With the two existing Hoabinh and Thacba reservoirs, the 250-year flood (as experienced in
1971) can be kept under the critical level at Hanoi which is 13.3 m above mean sea level.
However, this level still threatens the dyke systems in the delta.

The construction of more cascades on the Da and Lo Rivers would provide more flood control
and more water for hydroelectricity and irrigation. But the increase in annual mean runoff and
flood seasonality and the decrease in vulnerability to drought in North Vietnam predicted by
climate models suggests that there are some problems still to be solved.

First, the reservoir operation rules need to be reviewed and made more flexible. It is necessary to
control flooding in high areas of the flood plain at the same time as avoiding the risk of filling the
reservoirs too soon in the summer or not completely filling the reservoirs in the autumn.

Second, coastal management will have to be considered. With the present sedimentation rate, the
shoreline is expanding at 50-100 m per year in some places. But as a result of sea level rise and
the trapping of sediment in the reservoirs, the shoreline may retreat in the future. Land presently
at the margins of tide and wave action may be inundated and accelerated erosion of dunes may
occur in response to higher wave action associated with raised water levels.

Finally, saline intrusion in the lower reaches of the deltas would be aggravated by the predicted
sea level rise and may warrant revised management of flow control.

In the north of Central Vietnam, an increase in annual runoff is predicted. This is associated with
more intense typhoon activity and flood severity.

In contrast, in the middle and southern region of Central Vietnam, annual runoff may decrease,
particularly in the Thuan Hai province. Vulnerability to drought would increase and
desertification would become the foremost problem.

Most of the land in the south of Vietnam is drained by the Mekong River and the Dong Nai River.
The Lower Mekong Basin covers an area of 620,000 km² and yields an annual flow of 475,000
million m³.

The marked decrease in annual runoff predicted for this region would enhance the vulnerability to
drought in the delta areas unless large reservoirs are built upstream.

Within Vietnam, the Cuu Long Delta covers an area of 64,300 km² of which 2.4 million hectares
are cultivated area, and is inhabited by a population of some 17 million (37% of the total
population in the basin). Its annual flow is only 50,000 million m³. The Cuu Long Delta suffers
from drought almost every year (January-May) and is damaged by flood every seven to twelve
years. Floods occurred in 1966, 1978, 1984 and 1991.

From the extreme events of the past, the experience has been gained to cope with short-term
variability, by changing existing reservoir operating rules and improving flood and drought
preparedness.

But as far as long-term variations and changes in water resources are concerned, more reliable
assessments are needed from which water resource managers and planners will elaborate good
planning for the future.

The potential change in the demand side of water resource management may also be significant.
For example, in regions in which rainfall becomes less abundant and where temperatures rise,
there may well be an additional demand for irrigation, water supply and cooling techniques in
industry. Such considerations must play an important role in long-term planning.

It will also be necessary to consider the wider situation. Measures taken in response to changing
water availability higher upstream in neighbouring nations may have serious consequences for
riverflow within Vietnam.

Based on material provided by

Mr Dao Van Le, Hydrometeorological Service

Implications for Vietnam

Vietnam is on the brink of major change.

Internal reform and the pressing demands of rapid population growth and economic development,
alongside increased foreign investment and trade following years of conflict and isolation, present
an immediate challenge for Vietnam's policy makers.

To this must be added the potential threat posed by climate change and sea level rise and
Vietnam's clearly-stated desire to play a part in the regional and global response to global
warming.

The Vietnamese government recognizes that policies that are firm and strong, equitable and
sustainable need to be devised and implemented if the nation is to benefit from its wealth of
natural and human resources. In this way, economic growth can be ensured together with a
healthy environment.

Vietnam is well-placed to achieve this goal.

It is a nation with an excellent body of technicians, engineers and scientists, actively involved in
the fields of resource management and environmental protection.

It is a nation with an impressive history of environmental protection, combining traditional

methods with modern scientific understanding.

It is a nation with a clear understanding of the intrinsic links between environment and
development, awareness of the mistakes of the past, and a strong commitment at all levels of
society to the principles of sustainable development.

In many cases, existing activities, national tendencies and policies are consistent with a
precautionary response to climate change and sea level rise.

Vietnam already has a climate programme directed towards improving understanding of the
global warming problem, monitoring of climate change and climate impacts, and the
identification of appropriate responses.

The rise in greenhouse gas emissions likely to accompany the projected increase in energy
demand will be limited by existing plans to expand the use of hydropower and the rich diversity
of renewable sources of energy available in Vietnam.

Vietnam has a well-established strategy for restoration of the nation's forests and the protection of
biodiversity which will not only reduce greenhouse gas emissions but could provide an enhanced
sink, thereby offsetting increases in emissions resulting from energy use.

Coping with present-day climate-related disasters, the result of storm, drought and flood, provides
a wealth of knowledge and expertise relevant to the future impact of climate change and sea level
rise.

The strong tradition of pragmatism, education and community participation provides an excellent
base for efforts to respond to global warming at both the local and the national level.
Environmental education, in particular, is essential if local communities are to play their part
effectively in the national response.
Finally, the Vietnamese government places great emphasis on the desirability of regional and
wider international co-operation in scientific research and policy assessment. These activities,
national tendencies and policies should be strengthened. Taking selective advantage of the
additional support from the international community that is becoming available through climate
aid should be a major priority.

Global warming does, however, raise issues that may not be incorporated to the extent that is
needed in current plans, policies and strategies.

It will be necessary to obtain accurate and more comprehensive data on the sources of greenhouse
gases in Vietnam and the implications of all development plans concerning greenhouse gas
emissions should be assessed.

Development strategies should be examined to determine the extent to which their performance
may be affected by climate change and sea level rise. Where possible, they must be "climate-
proofed".

The implications of climate change and sea level rise for land use planning, in particular, must be
assessed. Vietnam is particularly vulnerable to the impact of global warming in the agricultural
sector and in all sectors of activity located along the coastline. Improving resistance to drought
should be considered a priority in rice production. Advantage can be taken of the benefits of
natural coastal protection afforded by, for example, the mangrove ecosystem. The protection,
restoration and sustainable use of this valuable resource should also be a priority.

Because of the wide-ranging nature of the sources and consequences of global warming,
institutional co-operation is vital in responding to the problem. Effective communication and co-
ordination within and between relevant departments and institutions should be encouraged.