VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY – HOCHIMINH CITY

INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING & MANAGEMENT

SIMULATION OF BUS SYSTEM IN

COLLEGE VILLAGE PROJECT
Course: Simulation Models in Industrial Engineering

Lecturer: Dr. Phạm Huỳnh Trâm

GROUP MEMBERS

No. Name Students’ ID Contribution

1 Nguyễn Kiều Trinh (Leader) IELSIU20448 100%

2 Bùi Bích Huệ IELSIU20239 100%

3 Hàng Nguyễn Minh Quân IELSIU20396 100%

4 Trần Ngọc Hiền Chi IELSIU20010 100%

5 Trần Thị Thúy Hiền IELSIU20303 100%

May, 2023
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................. 3
SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................. 5
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................... 7
1.1. Simulation in real-world system ..................................................................................... 7
1.2. Background ..................................................................................................................... 7
1.3. Problem statement ........................................................................................................... 8
1.4. System Requirement ....................................................................................................... 9
1.5. Objective ......................................................................................................................... 9
1.6. Limitation ...................................................................................................................... 10
CHAPTER 2: METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................... 11
2.1. Flow chart...................................................................................................................... 11
2.2. Assumption.................................................................................................................... 13
2.3. Map explanation ............................................................................................................ 14
2.4. Physical model .............................................................................................................. 15
2.4.1. Logic “Create passengers at bus stop” .................................................................. 15
2.4.2. Logic “Bus moving from one station to another” .................................................. 17
2.4.3. Logic “Exit” ........................................................................................................... 19
2.4.4. Other input in model ............................................................................................... 20
2.5. Input interpretation ........................................................................................................ 20
2.5.1. Data Collection....................................................................................................... 20
2.5.2. Input data analysis.................................................................................................. 21
2.5.3. Input modeling ........................................................................................................ 24
2.6. Operation description .................................................................................................... 27
2.6.1. Data type................................................................................................................. 31
2.6.2. Data form................................................................................................................ 32
CHAPTER 3: VERIFICATION & VALIDATION ........................................................... 42
3.1 Validation ....................................................................................................................... 42
CHAPTER 4: SOLUTIONS ................................................................................................. 47
4.1 Suggested solutions: ....................................................................................................... 47
4.2 Advantages and disadvantages ....................................................................................... 49
CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION .......................................... 50
APPENDIX ............................................................................................................................. 51
REFERENCES....................................................................................................................... 57

1
 LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1 - Bus simulation process ................................................................................ 12
Figure 2 - College Village’s map with station locations .............................................. 14
Figure 3 - Logic “Create passengers at bus stop” in Arena model............................ 15
Figure 4 - Logic “Bus moving from one station to another” in Arena model of Station
1, 2, 3, 4 ........................................................................................................................ 17
Figure 5- Logic “Bus moving from one station to another” in Arena model of Station
5, 6, 7, 8 ........................................................................................................................ 18
Figure 6- Logic “Exit” in Arena model ....................................................................... 19
Figure 7 – Input data analyzer for quantity of passengers per arrival ........................ 23
Figure 8 – Input data for waiting time between stations ............................................. 23
Figure 9 - Six replications with 8 minutes apart .......................................................... 29
Figure 10 - Six replications with 10 minutes apart ...................................................... 30
Figure 11 - Six replications with 12 minutes apart ...................................................... 30
Figure 12- Six replications with 15 minutes apart ....................................................... 31
Figure 13 - The bar chart illustrates number of drop-off passengers of 8 stations in 6
days (eight minutes apart) ............................................................................................ 34
Figure 14 - The bar chart illustrates number of drop-off passengers of 8 stations in 6
days (ten minutes apart) ............................................................................................... 35
Figure 15- The bar chart illustrates number of drop-off passengers of 8 stations in 6
days (twelve minutes apart) .......................................................................................... 36
Figure 16 - The bar chart illustrates number of drop-off passengers of 8 stations in 6
days (fifteen minutes apart) .......................................................................................... 37
Figure 17 - The line chart illustrates number of passengers of 17:00 -18:00 (eight
minutes apart. ............................................................................................................... 38
Figure 18 - The line chart illustrates number of passengers of 17:00 -18:00 (ten minutes
apart) ............................................................................................................................ 39
Figure 19 - The line chart illustrates number of passengers of 17:00 -18:00 (twelve
minutes apart) ............................................................................................................... 40
Figure 20 - The line chart illustrates number of passengers of 17:00 -18:00 (fifteen
minutes apart) ............................................................................................................... 41
Figure 21 - Validation and Verification Process ......................................................... 42
Figure 22 - Probability of accepting distribution ........................................................ 46
Figure 23 - Arena category by replication ................................................................... 48
Figure 24 - Result file for 8 min of arrival in 6 replications (Page 1 and 2) ............... 51
Figure 25 - Result file for 10 min of arrival in 6 replications (Page 1 and 2) ............. 52
Figure 26 - Result file for 10 min of arrival in 12 replications (Page 1,2,3 and 4) .... 53
Figure 27- Result file for 10 min of arrival in 18 replications (6 Pages) ................... 55
Figure 28 - Result file for 12 min of arrival in 6 replications (Page 1 and 2) ............. 56
Figure 29 - Result file for 15 min of arrival in 6 replications (Page 1 and 2)............. 56

2
 LIST OF TABLES
Table 1 - Other input data for module in Arena model ................................................ 20
Table 2 - Total number of passengers per station every 2 hours in timeline of buses . 21
Table 3 - Bar chart shows the fluctuation in the quantity of passengers on given time
intervals. ....................................................................................................................... 22
Table 4 - Input data distribution .................................................................................. 24
Table 5 - Input data definition ...................................................................................... 31
Table 6 - Data collection format .................................................................................. 32
Table 7 - Mean & Std of waiting time between two stations (minutes) ........................ 33
Table 8 - Number of drop-off passengers of 8 stations in 6 days (eight minutes apart)
...................................................................................................................................... 34
Table 9- Number of drop-off passengers of 8 stations in 6 days (ten minutes apart) .. 35
Table 10 - Number of drop-off passengers of 8 stations in 6 days (twelve minutes
apart) ............................................................................................................................ 36
Table 11 - Number of drop-off passengers of 8 stations in 6 days (fifteen minutes
apart) ............................................................................................................................ 37
Table 12 - Number of drop-off passengers from 17:00 to 18:00 (eight minutes apart).
...................................................................................................................................... 38
Table 13 - Number of drop-off passengers from 17:00 to 18:00 (ten minutes apart).. 39
Table 14 - Number of drop-off passengers from 17:00 to 18:00 (twelve minutes apart).
...................................................................................................................................... 40
Table 15 - Number of drop-off passengers from 17:00 to 18:00 (fifteen minutes apart).
...................................................................................................................................... 41
Table 16 - Spreadsheet data for T- test ........................................................................ 43
Table 17 - Spreadsheet data for T-test ........................................................................ 45

3
ABSTRACT

Bus systems have been a favorite public transport for people who are fond of their

benefits and convenience, especially students. Ho Chi Minh college village is known as

a destination with the highest concentration of students in Ho Chi Minh city. The land

of the college village is located in two areas of Binh Duong province and Ho Chi Minh

City, and furthermore, there are 2 more student dormitories with a capacity of 52,000

accommodations. In our survey, we notice that 60% of students go to school and move

around the college area by bus. Therefore, the bus system in college village plays an

indispensable part of students' lives. After conducting surveys and recording the

operation of the bus model at six bus stations of universities and two dorm stations, we

discovered that rush hour encounters frequent congestion and overloading and it takes

quite a long time to catch the bus. Thus, to optimize the operation of the bus system, we

carried out a simulation of the new bus system by using Arena software. Thereby, we

can provide new bus routes so students can be flexible to move to all destinations in this

village. In addition, we want to reduce the overloaded situation and shorten the waiting

time in the bus system. This simulation can show us the moving process of a specific

bus from one station to other stations, recording the number of passengers or the waiting

time or the time for moving. After that, we can evaluate whether our project is consistent

or not.

Keywords: bus system simulation, public transportation, college village, efficiency

analysis, route optimization.

4
SUMMARY

With the aspiration to satisfy the students’ needs, the project of simulating a new bus

system, which goes through all the universities in the national university cluster in Ho

Chi Minh City of Thu Duc District. Through considering precisely some scenarios, we

will choose the best way to not only design the most efficient operating procedure but

also minimize factors related to frequency of buses. Our project will be divided into

structures of three major parts: collecting and analyzing data, building a model in the

Arena platform, and representing validation and performance.

● In the collecting and analyzing data process:

We found out and identified three routes that cover the entire college village. They are

Route 33, Route 50 and Route 52. By following the three routes, all the data was

collected during one week at existing bus stops which are located near the universities

in the college village. Based on the collected information, we try to analyze and decide

how to simulate a new bus.

● In the building model process:

Our project will simulate the fundamental stages of buses from entering to leaving the

terminus: arrival, waiting for passengers, pick up, carrying passengers, drop off. Then,

by modules and functions of Arena software, we added the available data to run with

limited conditions of the model.

● In the representing validation and performance:

After running the model with limited conditions, we will validate and synthesize the

results through many alternative tests. Finally, with the achieved results, we will select

and conclude which is the optimal solution for the project.

5
Aside from that, to generate an absolute simulation, this project was contributed by

other vital stages : drawing a bus route on the paper map and 2D on Adobe Illustrator9

and 3D models in the Arena platform. Moreover, the simulation was simplified by a

flow chart before it was built in Arena.

6
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION

1.1. Simulation in real-world system

Simulation involves replicating the behavior and operation of a real-world process or

system across a span of time. Whether conducted manually or using computer software,

simulation entails creating a simulated record of a system's activities and analyzing that

record to draw conclusions about the functioning and performance of the actual system.

Definition of “model” related to developing the evolving behavior of a system and

making assumptions expressed in mathematical, logical, and symbolic relationships.

These models allow for investigating "what if '' scenarios and predicting the impact of

changes on system performance. Simulation can be used both for analyzing existing

systems and designing new ones. While some models can be solved mathematically,

many complex real-world systems require numerical simulation to imitate their

behavior and collect data for estimating system performance measures.

Throughout this process, our group would apply the Arena system – a software tool

used for creating and conducting simulations of complex systems. It provides a virtual

environment where users can model and analyze various processes, scenarios, and

interactions to gain insights and make informed decisions.

1.2. Background

Ho Chi Minh college village is a convergent place of not only students in the city but

also many provinces across Vietnam. The more the number of students increases, the

more they need to travel. Although currently the number of students using private

7
vehicles has increased, public transport still dominates. Therefore, the bus is considered

as the important means of transportation for students whom we conduct an overanalysis

of here to have a destination in the college village. According to recent research, the bus

information system in Ho Chi Minh city is evolving, bus trips are able to cover nearly

70% of the routes inside the college village and downtown locations. However, there

are still many limitations that the system needs to improve, so that passengers can have

better experiences. For a long-term solution to reduce bus-related problems, it is vital

to develop a robust and sustainable integrated bus information system and the state

management capacity regarding road safety as well as to improve the transport

infrastructure. The thesis aims to simulate a new concept for the bus system to replace

disadvantages of the old one and understand uncertainties related to the system that

contribute to the success of a bus information system. An integrated bus system helps

to enhance the productivity and efficiency of the system.

1.3. Problem statement

According to traditional bus system, there are some main problems that shown:

● Although there are a large number of vehicles run through 6 points: A dorm, B

dorm, Central Library, Ho Chi Minh City University of Agriculture and Forestry,

University of Economics and Law, International University and University of

Social Sciences and Humanities, an enormous issue still exists the shortage of buses

which can cover the entire college village area.

● Moreover, demands to unavailable stations on the schedule and the long time

intervals among bus trips. For example, some buses are set up 25 mins/ arrival and

just move some stations. It means that, if any students missed a bus, they would

8
 wait around 25 minutes. As a result, going to school late is inevitable. That is why

we carry out this research to simulate a new bus trip to meet the demand for almost

all students in the college city.

1.4. System Requirement

This project aims to simulate a bus system limited in Thu Duc University Village. This

area was chosen due to its attraction to a massive influx of students from nationwide for

educational purpose. Therefore, the number of buses and bus routes operating within

the village needs to be carefully considered to ensure an adequate supply to serve all

students.

This replication will focus on evaluating the time intervals between two buses and the

capacity among trips; also analyzing whether the bus system in this area could be

suitable for matching student's demand. Datas would cover all students traveling within

the village, and time arrivals of three-specific buses. Moreover, the bus’s performance

would last from 7:00 a.m to 5 p.m, considering both normal and rush periods to analyze

whether there was some congestion or not.

1.5. Objective

The goal for this simulation project is to minimize the queue time between two arrival

trips by analyzing the number of buses (specific to Route 33, 50 and 52 only). Thanks

to the technique of the simulation model in Arena, we had the opportunities to identify

the bottleneck within the system and point out changeable decisions if possible.

9
1.6. Limitation

One of the biggest limitations for our project is our limited access to a fully-regulated

version of Arena and the students’ version only allowed for maximum 150 entities. As

a result, we could not perform the full data while testing the model at home, which leads

to more difficult problems.

Another drawback would be the data collection process. Thu Duc City has been

experiencing uncomfortable weather since April, which makes our condition

uncommon for collecting student arrivals on bus and time counting. Additionally, low

transporter and inadequate resources had led to difficulty in utilization.

10
CHAPTER 2: METHODOLOGY

2.1. Flow chart

The journey of buses traveling between locations in the university town is illustrated in

the flowchart below:

Phase 1:

Buses of route 33:

University of Economics and Law (UEL) → University of Agriculture and Forestry (NLU)

→ Area A Dormitory (Dorm A)→ International University (IU) → Area B Dormitory

(Dorm B)

Buses of Route 50:

University of Technology (BKU) → NLU → UEL → Central Library → Dorm A →

Buses of Route 52:

Central Library → University of Social Science and Humanities (USSH) → Dorm A → IU

Phase 2:

If there are passengers at the first station (Dorm B area), the bus will be stopped.

Otherwise, buses will go to the next station.

Buses only stop at the other bus stops when there are people waiting to be picked up or

dropped off. Moving to the next station, however, happens when there are too many

passengers or there are no more available seats.

11
Figure 1 - Bus simulation process

12
2.2. Assumption

● If there are passengers waiting to be picked up or dropped off, the delay time is

set to 30 seconds.

● Accidents, transportation delays, inclement weather, and other unforeseen events

are not taken into consideration.

● Those waiting in the station who wish to take the bus to the next station must

board the bus.

● Total available bus route: 2 (Route 33, Route 50 and Route 52)

● Total number of vehicle per day (account for each route): 10 buses

● Transfer time of vehicle between station: 10 minutes

13
2.3. Map explanation

Figure 2 - College Village’s map with station locations

The map of the bus system in the national university village of Ho Chi Minh City

including six universities and other specific important locations such as:

● International University

● Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology

● VNUHCM-University of Social Sciences and Humanities

● University of Economics and Law

● Nong Lam University

14
 ● University of Information Technology

● Central Library

● Dormitory Area A

● Dormitory Area B

2.4. Physical model

2.4.1. Logic “Create passengers at bus stop”

Figure 3 - Logic “Create passengers at bus stop” in Arena model

It entails creating eight unique groups of passengers with the intention of boarding buses

at eight various stations. The "Create passenger at station X'' procedure, which follows
15
a predetermined schedule running from 6:00 to 18:00, is used to accomplish this. The

influx of entities into the system happens at intervals of two hours, with the precise

number of arrivals chosen based on the data we have gathered.

The "passenger go-to station X" blocks then help the passengers with a series of

assignments. These assignments help to identify each passenger's distinctive

characteristics and make it possible to estimate the number of people who want to travel

between different stations.

In the end, hold blocks are used to temporarily hold all passengers until the next phase

of movement starts. The variable X, which ranges from 1 to 8, represents the sequential

order of the stations.

16
2.4.2. Logic “Bus moving from one station to another”

Figure 4 - Logic “Bus moving from one station to another” in Arena model of Station

1, 2, 3, 4

17
Figure 5- Logic “Bus moving from one station to another” in Arena model of Station

5, 6, 7, 8

To make it easier for buses to move between stations, several modules must be

implemented. At first, the "Create bus" module is installed at station 1, using a constant

type that produces a bus every 10 minutes, with a maximum of 10 buses able to be used

at once. When a bus arrives at Station X, it must make a choice between picking up

passengers or dropping them off at the current station. This decision-making process is

handled by the "Search and remove" block.

18
The bus then picks up all of the passengers who were being held at the "Hold" module

as part of the logic for "Create passengers at bus stop" in the "pick up" module. After

this collection, there is a 30-second delay before the bus enters the "bus go to station X"

module and starts moving towards the destination station. In contrast, the "drop off"

block enables passengers to exit the bus and move to the "passengers leave at SX"

module thanks to the route block. The "departure station" attribute determines the

destination station for these departing passengers.

The "Exit" logic, which signifies the end of the bus's movement from one station to

another, brings the process to a close.

2.4.3. Logic “Exit”

Figure 6- Logic “Exit” in Arena model

The "dispose passengers" module, represented by the dispose block, effectively purges

the system of all passengers who are intended to disembark at stations 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7

and 8, which correspond to the departure station. This module effectively removes these

travelers from the simulation by indicating their departure and completing their smooth

exit from the system.

19
 2.4.4. Other input in model

Table 1 – Other input data for module in Arena model

Input data types Related to Arena modules
- Search Condition Type: Search and Remove using
All true conditions Search a Batch type.
- Search Condition:
Destination == 1, (2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

- Quantity: Pickup using Queue type:

(NQ (Hold passenger at station 1, (2,3,4,5,6,7,8). Queue) <25) *NQ Queue.
(Hold passenger at station 1, (2,3,4,5,6,7,8). Queue)+(NQ(Hold
passenger at station 1.Queue)>=25)*25

- Type: Infinite Hold Hold module:

- Allocation: Wait Delay module:

- Delay Time: 0.5 minutes

2.5. Input interpretation

2.5.1. Data Collection

The data collection procedure was carried out over the course of 7 days while

adhering to the following rules:

1. The data collection period lasted the entire day, from 6:00 to 18:00.

2. Data points were recorded every two hours, allowing for a consistent and

organized data collection over the allotted time period.

20
 3. Stopwatches were used to measure specific time intervals, and manual counting

was used to count the number of passengers at various points throughout the

process.

4. An Excel spreadsheet was used to calculate the likelihood of passenger pickup

and drop-off at each station. By analyzing the data collected using the

aforementioned methods, calculations were performed to determine the

probabilities for each station.

5. Depending on the presence of bus stops, both bus and motorbike (moving at a

speed of 30 km/h) modes of transportation were used to estimate the distance

between stations. These modes were used to estimate the travel time between

each station in order to create accurate simulations.

6. The average amount of time passengers had to wait was calculated when the bus

stopped to be picked up or dropped off. This metric was measured and tracked

in order to gain insight into the system's overall effectiveness and passenger

experience.

2.5.2. Input data analysis

Table 2- Total number of passengers per station every 2 hours in timeline of buses

21
The analysis of the collected data on the number of passengers per bus station during

the six time periods provides valuable insights into passenger demand patterns and

allows for a deeper understanding of the system dynamics. The early morning period

(6:00-8:00) has the most total passengers (293), indicating peak commuter activity. The

following time periods show varying decreases in passenger numbers, with the mid-

morning (10:00-12:00) period recording the lowest count (132). The afternoon period

(14:00-16:00) sees a significant increase (256), whereas the late afternoon period

(16:00-18:00) sees a decrease (140). These findings can be used to improve resource

allocation and scheduling, resulting in increased operational efficiency and a better

passenger experience. Then, using a bar chart, we show a distinct fluctuation in the

number of passengers over six time intervals.

Table 3 - Bar chart shows the fluctuation in the quantity of passengers on given time
intervals.

22
 Figure 7 – Input data analyzer for quantity of passengers per arrival
The quantity of passengers per arrival is distributed unequally with all outliers.

Figure 8 – Input data for waiting time between stations

23
 It can be easily seen that the waiting time is decreasing over time.

2.5.3. Input modeling

Table 4 - Input data distribution

Input data Distribution

Inter-arrival time of passengers Schedule

Passengers go to the station 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 or 8 DISC (0.4,2,0.5,3,0.6,4,0.7,5,0.8,6,0.9,7,1,8)

Passengers go to the station 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 or 1 DISC (0.1,3,0.3,4,0.5,5,0.6,6,0.8,7,0.9,8,1,1)

Passengers go to the station 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 or 1 DISC (0.3,4,0.4,5,0.6,6,0.7,7,0.9,8,1,1)

Passengers go to the station 5, 6, 7, 8 or 1 DISC (0.3,5,0.5,6,0.7,7,0.9,8,1,1)

Passengers go to the station 6, 7, 8 or 1 DISC (0.4,6,0.7,7,0.8,8,1,1)

Passengers go to the station 7, 8 or 1 DISC (0.5,7,0.8,8,1,1)

Passengers go to the station 8 or 1 DISC (0.5,8,1,1)

Passengers go to the station 1 DISC (1,1)

Create bus Constant (Max:10)

Station 1 Station

Station 2 Station

Station 3 Station

24
 Station 4 Station

Station 5 Station

Station 6 Station

Station 7 Station

Station 8 Station

Passengers leave Station

Dispose passengers Dispose

Wait at Station 1 Delay

Wait at Station 2 Delay

Wait at Station 3 Delay

Wait at Station 4 Delay

Wait at Station 5 Delay

Wait at Station 6 Delay

Wait at Station 7 Delay

Wait at Station 8 Delay

Pick up passengers at S1 Queue

25
Pick up passengers at S2 Queue

Pick up passengers at S3 Queue

Pick up passengers at S4 Queue

Pick up passengers at S5 Queue

Pick up passengers at S6 Queue

Pick up passengers at S7 Queue

Pick up passengers at S8 Queue

Buses go to station 1 Route

Buses go to station 2 Route

Buses go to station 3 Route

Buses go to station 4 Route

Buses go to station 5 Route

Buses go to station 6 Route

Buses go to station 7 Route

Buses go to station 8 Route

26
2.6. Operation description

The simulation aims to model the relationship between the number of students and the

bus waiting time interval in order to gain insight into peak-hour congestion patterns.

The output provides an overview of the congestion levels observed during these peak

periods, allowing for informed adjustments to be made in order to appropriately address

the situation. The simulation simulates the bus system's normal operation while taking

the following setup parameters into account:

● The unit of measurement is in hours

● The number of replications is set to 6

● The total duration of the simulation run is 72 hours.

Using this simulation approach, it is possible to analyze and optimize the bus system's

performance, ultimately improving the overall efficiency and effectiveness of

transportation services provided to the student population.

● Eight minutes apart:

27
28
 Figure 9 - Six replications with 8 minutes apart

● Ten minutes apart:

29
 Figure 10 - Six replications with 10 minutes apart
● Twelve minutes apart:

Figure 11 - Six replications with 12 minutes apart

30
 ● Fifteen minutes apart:

Figure 12- Six replications with 15 minutes apart

2.6.1. Data type

Table 5- Input data definition

No. Input data Definition

1 Buses’ inter-arrival The temporal interval between the arrival of the

time preceding bus and the subsequent bus at a given station.

2 Buses’ waiting time The period during which the bus remains stationary to

facilitate passenger-related activities, such as drop-off or

pick-up, or when no passenger interactions occur.

3 Buses’ next station The duration required for the bus to traverse from its

time current station to the subsequent station along its

designated route.

31
 4 Buses’ occupation The cumulative duration during which the bus is

time actively engaged in its assigned route, including inter-

arrival time, waiting time, and next station time.

2.6.2. Data form

Table 6- Data collection format

Time Quantity Waiting time Occupation time Customer type

(people) (seconds) (minutes)

6:00 – 7:00

7:00 – 8:00

8:00 – 9:00

9:00 – 10:00

10:00 – 11:00

11:00 – 12:00

12:00 – 13:00

13:00 – 14:00

14:00 – 15:00

15:00 – 16:00

32
16:00 – 17:00

17:00 – 18:00

Table 7 - Mean & Std of waiting time between two stations (minutes)

The table below documents the distances measured between bus stops by our research

team using private vehicles. We recommend maintaining a speed of around 30 km/h to

allow for safe passenger embarkation and disembarkation. The collected data will be

processed using the Excel tool to compute statistical parameters such as standard

deviation and mean values.

In addition, we used the Arena software's FILE module to generate output reports

detailing the number of passengers alighting at each station at various time intervals.

This module aided in the analysis and recording of passenger behavior and provided

valuable insights into passenger disembarkation patterns throughout the simulated runs.

33
We were able to efficiently capture and analyze passenger data using this software tool,

contributing to a comprehensive understanding of the transportation dynamics within

the simulated system.

● Case 1: Eight minutes

Table 8- Number of drop-off passengers of 8 stations in 6 days (eight minutes apart)

Figure 13 - The bar chart illustrates number of drop-off passengers of 8 stations in 6

days (eight minutes apart)

34
 ● Case 2: Ten minutes

Table 9- Number of drop-off passengers of 8 stations in 6 days (ten minutes apart)

Figure 14 - The bar chart illustrates number of drop-off passengers of 8 stations in 6

days (ten minutes apart)

35
 ● Case 3: Twelve minutes

Table 10 - Number of drop-off passengers of 8 stations in 6 days (twelve minutes

apart)

Figure 15- The bar chart illustrates number of drop-off passengers of 8 stations in 6
days (twelve minutes apart)

36
 ● Case 4: Fifteen minutes

Table 11 - Number of drop-off passengers of 8 stations in 6 days (fifteen minutes

apart)

Figure 16 - The bar chart illustrates number of drop-off passengers of 8 stations in 6

days (fifteen minutes apart)
37
Since this is the time zone when congestion is most likely to occur as students leave

college, we have specifically chosen the period from 17:00 to 18:00 to observe more

closely:

● Case 1: Eight minutes

Table 12 - Number of drop-off passengers from 17:00 to 18:00 (eight minutes apart).

Figure 17 - The line chart illustrates number of passengers of 17:00 -18:00 (eight
minutes apart.

38
 ● Case 2: Ten minutes

Table 13 - Number of drop-off passengers from 17:00 to 18:00 (ten minutes apart).

Figure 18 - The line chart illustrates number of passengers of 17:00 -18:00 (ten
minutes apart)

39
 ● Case 3: Twelve minutes

Table 14 - Number of drop-off passengers from 17:00 to 18:00 (twelve minutes apart).

Figure 19 - The line chart illustrates number of passengers of 17:00 -18:00 (twelve
minutes apart)

40
 ● Case 4: Fifteen minutes

Table 15 - Number of drop-off passengers from 17:00 to 18:00 (fifteen minutes apart).

Figure 20 - The line chart illustrates number of passengers of 17:00 -18:00 (fifteen
minutes apart)

When comparing the four bus time intervals presented above, we can see that the time

of 15 minutes is the most optimal for dropping the greatest number of students.

However, considering the students' convenience, the time between this trip is quite long.

41
CHAPTER 3: VERIFICATION & VALIDATION

3.1 Validation

Figure 21 - Validation and Verification Process

Step 1: Identify an appropriate probability distribution

Step 2: Estimate the parameters of the hypothesized distribution

Step 3: Validate the assumed statistical model by a goodness-of-fit-test, such as the

Chi-square or Kolmogorov-Smirnow test, and by graphical methods.

42
 T-TEST

Table 16 - Spreadsheet data for T- test

- The null hypothesis is that the mean value from Arena simulation and the

collected data are equal to each other.

- The alternative hypothesis is not that the mean value from Arena simulation and

the collected data are equal to each other.

- The null hypothesis is μ1 = μ2 and the alternative hypothesis is μ1≠ μ2. Since

the population variance is unknown, a two-sample unpaired t-test should be

performed.

H0 ∶ μ1 − μ2 = 0

43
 H1 : μ1 − μ2 ≠ 0
S1 2 38. 92
𝛚𝟏 = = = 𝟐𝟓𝟐. 𝟏𝟔
n1 6

S2 2 60.862
𝛚𝟐 = = = 𝟔𝟏𝟕. 𝟐𝟕
n2 6

[⍵1 + ⍵2 ]2 [252.16 + 617.27]2

𝐝𝐟 = ⍵ 2 ⍵22 = 25. 2162 617.272
[ 1 +
n1 − 1 n2 − 1 [ 6 − 1 + 6 − 1 ]

= 𝟖. 𝟓𝟎𝟎𝟖𝟖 round down to 8

x1 − x2 − D 2383.83 − 2367
𝐭𝐭 = = = 𝟎. 𝟓𝟕𝟎𝟖𝟗
s 2 s 2 2 2
√ 1 + 2 √38. 9 + 60.86
n1 n2 6 6

- Critical value of 95% confidence level for a two-tail test is:

−2.306 < 0.57089 < 2.306

- Hence the null hypothesis is accepted at the significance level of 0.05.

- The bus simulation model is valid.

T-TEST

Based on database records, we estimated that the average waiting time of passengers

in the stations was 3.45 minutes. Six independent replications of the model were run,

each of 12 hours duration, with the following results for average waiting time in

stations.

Hypothesis testing

44
- Null hypothesis:

H0 : E(Yi) = 3.45
- Meaning: The expected average waiting time in the simulation model is equal

to 3.45 minutes.

- Alternative hypothesis:

H1 : E(Yi) ≠ 3.45

Table 17 - Spreadsheet data for T-test

- Test statistic :

𝑌2 − 𝜇0
|𝑡0 | = | |
𝑆/√𝑛

⇒ |𝒕𝟎 | = 𝟏. 𝟖𝟗

- Critical value:

t(0.025, 5) = 2.5706

= -2.5706

45
 Because -2.5706 < 1.89 < 2.5706

Conclusion: We cannot reject null hypothesis. We can say that model output is not

consistent with system behavior.

Detecting an invalid model at least 90%

1 − 𝛽 ≥ 0.9

 𝜷 ≤ 𝟎. 𝟏

- The critical difference is 0.05 minutes.

.
0.05
= = 𝟏. 𝟐𝟖
0.039

 So, to guarantee the difference between the average time and in the model

system is no more than 0.05 minute and the ability to detect the invalid model is

90%, the sample size should be larger than 7 replications.

Figure 22 - Probability of accepting distribution

46
CHAPTER 4: SOLUTIONS

4.1 Suggested solutions:

To improve the system, many prominent approaches have been considered:

● Improving the bus station system: adding more station or replace old station

● Improving the resource’s capacity: adding more bus

● Improving the passenger’s sitting: adding more chairs

As for the passenger’s sitting : since there are a small number of seats for students (25

seats), the system operation sometimes has a bottleneck. Therefore, improving the

passenger’s sitting should be applied.

At the resource’s capacity and the bus station system:

47
 Figure 23 - Arena category by replication
Taking a look at the Queue Time from ARENA’s Category Overview, it is obvious that

the average waiting time for bus waiting is about 2.07 minutes. This amount of time is

considered as a little bit long for a process and can cause bottlenecks in the systems.

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4.2 Advantages and disadvantages

4.2.1. Advantages:

Bus managing organization can use this simulation to determine how many buses and

seats are needed to effectively satisfy the needs of students during peak hours. As a

result, by eliminating upfront performance checks, Bus system can save review time,

money, and avoid wasting change. Improving the remaining key issues will utilize and

improve the level of student service.

4.2.2. Disadvantages:

These solutions will be less effective if the problem of congestion in the system is not

thoroughly solved or the simulation is not highly realistic, which will waste money on

infrastructure and personnel while not bringing high efficiency.

49
CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION AND

RECOMMENDATION

This simulation analyzes the performance of a bus system throughout a whole week.

From the simulation’s result, it is crystal clear that the running problem of the bus

system comes from waiting time and the overloaded number of passengers in rush

hours or empty bus sitting. To overcome this hard-solving problem, we try to simulate

the bus model in order to find out whether we should add or decrease more buses.

Furthermore, the bus system can apply some solutions such as opening a new bus

system that is just satisfied for only students in college village, considering replacing

old stations with new stations with more suitable positions, …

After a long journey, our project finally came to an end. Although a lot of obstacles

appeared all along our way. Compared to the initial object, we are proud to say that we

have finished all objectives we proposed at the beginning. First and foremost, we have

mastered the technique of simulation models in Industrial Engineering created by Arena

simulation software and applied it to maximize the proficiency of the bus system.

Secondly, we have been able to identify the bottleneck of the whole system and come

up with a solution to this deep-rooted problem. Finally, we have gained so much

50
experience in how to cooperate as a close-knit team. All the experience from this project

will ensure us a better feature when working at our workplace.

APPENDIX

Arena output file (*.txt)

Figure 24 - Result file for 8 min of arrival in 6 replications (Page 1 and 2)

51
Figure 25 - Result file for 10 min of arrival in 6 replications (Page 1 and 2)

52
Figure 26 - Result file for 10 min of arrival in 12 replications (Page 1,2,3 and 4)

53
54
Figure 27- Result file for 10 min of arrival in 18 replications (6 Pages)

55
Figure 28 - Result file for 12 min of arrival in 6 replications (Page 1 and 2)

Figure 29 - Result file for 15 min of arrival in 6 replications (Page 1 and 2)

56
REFERENCES

1. (PDF) Getting started with Arena.pdf (no date a) pdfslide.net. Available at:

https://pdfslide.net/documents/getting-started-with-arenapdf.html?page=1

(Accessed: 27 May 2023).

2. (No date) Studerende.au.dk - find din studieinformation på Aarhus universitet.

Available at:

https://studerende.au.dk/fileadmin/www.medarbejdere.au.dk/it/BSS_Analyseva

erktoejer/Arena/Arena_User_s_Guide_EN.pdf (Accessed: 27 May 2023).

3. Data-Driven Supply Chain Model - Arena Simulation Software (2017)

YouTube. Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIlHNuZKptk

(Accessed: 27 May 2023).

4. Sheldon M. Ross, Department of Industrial Engineering and Operations

Research University of California, Berkeley, Probability and Statistics for

Engineers and Scientists, 4th edition, Elsevier.

57