CHAPTER I

Introduction

The most frequent and destructive natural disaster in the world is flooding. It is a

threat to the environment that endangers human life, destroys infrastructure, disrupts

economic activity, and depletes ecological resources. Cagayan de Oro city has been

subject to frequent and devasting floods. Sendong, also known as Washi internationally,

wreaked havoc in the city of Cagayan de Oro leaving more than 1,200 people dead and

billions of pesos in property damage on December 16, 2011. No argue needed, it was the

worst flood event the city has seen. The city's ongoing problem with these devastating

floods could be linked to two main factors, natural aspect, and man-made aspects. A

natural aspect includes climatic conditions and tidal conditions. A man-made aspect

includes irresponsible throwing of solid wastes in the canals, negligence of some

government agencies and/or private organizations, and rapid development of the city

(Flores et.al, 2020).

Normally, if there's heavy rainfall, it is often assumed that it would correspond to

floods, the two go hand in hand. However, related studies such as a study by Miller

(2018) stated that the reported rises in precipitation extremes do not appear to have been

associated with rises in flooding. The relationship between rainfall and flood has always

been unclear. Understanding this relationship between rainfall trends and floods will
STUDY ON THE TRENDS OF RAINFALL AND FLOOD IN CDO

greatly help in assessing its impact on the people living in the community affected.

Understanding the role of rainfall in the size and magnitude of the flood will also help

develop flood mitigation measures.

Other studies have provided information regarding factors contributing to the

flood events in Cagayan de Oro City (Flores et.al, 2020). Others analyzed the floodplain

of the Cagayan de Oro River basin (Mabao & Cabahug, 2014), while some provided an

evaluation of the statistical relationship between extreme rainfall accumulation and flood

magnitude, but on a different location (Miller, 2018). Observations have also been made

by the researchers that heavy rainfall does not immediately equate to heavy flood, and

vice versa. There is little to no information about how the rainfall trends correlate to the

flood events in Cagayan de Oro City. Thus, the main objective of this study is to

determine the relationship between the trends of rainfall and flood events in Cagayan de

Oro City.

To summarize, Cagayan de Oro City has been experiencing frequent rain and

floods. There are multiple factors that contribute to floods, but rainfall is the main one.

This study aims to determine the role of rainfall in flood events in order to establish the

relationship between the trends of rainfall and flooding in Cagayan de Oro City.

Conceptual Framework

Rainfall refers to the quantity of rain falling within a given area in a given

amount of time. Urban and rural flood water level depends on the trends of rainfall in
STUDY ON THE TRENDS OF RAINFALL AND FLOOD IN CDO

which the data is perceived. This study will focus on gathering rainfall data for the trends

of rainfall and urban and rural flood water level data.

Independent Variable Dependent Variable

Trends of Rainfall in Flood Volume (Urban

Cagayan de Oro City Flood)

Figure 1: The Schematic Diagram of the Study

The diagram above shows the schematic diagram for this study. The independent

variable included in this study is the trends of rainfall in Cagayan de Oro city. The

dependent variable is flood volume (urban) in Cagayan de Oro City. The effects of the

independent variable on the dependent variable will be analyzed to determine if there is a

significant relationship between the two variables.

Research Questions

The main objective of this study is to analyze the trends of rainfall and determine

its relationship with flood events in Cagayan de Oro City. Specifically, this study aims to

answer the following questions:

1. What is the rainfall trend in Cagayan de Oro city for the past 3 years (years 2020 –

2022) in terms of:

STUDY ON THE TRENDS OF RAINFALL AND FLOOD IN CDO

1.1 Rainfall Intensity;

1.2 Rainfall Frequency; and

1.3 Urban Flood – Flood Volume?

2. Is there a significant relationship between the trends of rainfall and urban flood

volume in the last 5 years (years 2018 – 2022)?

3. What is the 5-year forecast (years 2023 – 2027) for the trends of rainfall and urban

flood impact in Cagayan de Oro City if the current rainfall trend persists?

Research Hypothesis

H o : There is no significant relationship between the trends of rainfall and urban

flood volume in Cagayan de Oro City for the last 5 years.

Significance of the study

By conducting this research, the calculations will determine the trends of rainfall

and flood volume in the Cagayan de Oro area when it experiences light and heavy

rainfall. This study can help identify how severe the effects will be if the current weather

continues. Furthermore, this study could help people from Cagayan de Oro identify

hazardous areas to live in, improve urban planning, and predict the economic impacts the

flooding may cause. Because of this, this study can assist with the following:
STUDY ON THE TRENDS OF RAINFALL AND FLOOD IN CDO

Schools. This study can utilize the data to pinpoint locations where rainwater will

form pools after it has stopped raining and then utilize that knowledge to install proper

drainage systems to prevent rainwater from forming pools after it has stopped raining.

Barangays. Utilizing the data of this study to implement safety measures for the

people residing in the affected barangays.

CDRRMD. With the help of the data gathered in this study, CDRRMD can

quickly identify the places that are most affected by floods during light and heavy

rainfall.

Future Researchers. This study can be used as a guide and reference for future

researchers who have a close relative study.

Scope and Delimitation of the Study

The main objective of our study is to analyze the trends of rainfall and determine

its relationship with the flood events in Cagayan de Oro City. Rainfall plays a huge role

in the magnitude and frequency of floods, so analyzing the trends of rainfall will be the

priority. This study will not include other factors contributing to the flood events like

climate change, deforestation, the rapid development of the city, faulty street drainage,

etc., as the researchers do not have enough resources and there are too many factors that

need to be considered. This study is also only limited to the city of Cagayan de Oro's

rainfall intensity and frequency, trends of rainfall, and urban flood volume, and only

focuses on determining the correlation between trends of rainfall and urban flood volume.
STUDY ON THE TRENDS OF RAINFALL AND FLOOD IN CDO

So, the results of this study can only be referenced with places that have similar

physiography and geographical locations to Cagayan de Oro City.

Operational Definition of Terms

Attenuation. Refers to the reduction of the force, effect, or value of something.

Correlation. Refers to a mutual relationship or connection between two or more

things.

Economic Impact. Refers to the financial influence of an occasion, program,

project, or policy on an entity.

Floodplain. Refers to a low-lying region next to a river that is vulnerable to

floods, formed primarily of river sediments.

Forecast. Refers to the prediction or estimation of future events, particularly

coming weather or market trends.

Geographical Location. Refers to the location on earth.

Geolocation. Refers to the method or process of determining a person's or a

device's geographic location using digital data processed over the internet.

Intensity. Refers to the quantifiable amount of a property, such as force.

Low-Impact Development. Refers to the term used in Canada and the United

States to describe a land planning and engineering design approach to manage stormwater

runoff as part of green infrastructure.

STUDY ON THE TRENDS OF RAINFALL AND FLOOD IN CDO

Magnitude. Refers to something's enormous size or scope.

Mann-Kendall Statistical Test. The Mann-Kendall Statistic Test is used to assess

whether a set of data values is increasing over time or decreasing over time and whether

the trend in either direction is statistically significant.

Mitigation. Refers to the action of reducing the severity, seriousness, or

painfulness of something.

NDRRMC. Refers to the highest organized and authorized body for Disaster Risk

Reduction and Management (DRRM) in the Philippines.

Pattern. Refers to the recurring or regular method that something occurs or is

carried out.

Physiography. Refers to a description of the features and phenomena of nature.

Rainfall. Refers to the amount of rain that falls in a specific location at a specific

time.

Rainfall Pattern. Refers to the current distribution of rainfall in a region.

Rainfall Trend. Refers to changes in rainfall patterns over time.

Rain Gauge. Refers to an instrument used by meteorologists and hydrologists to

gather and measure the amount of liquid precipitation over a predefined area, over a

period of time.

Redevelopment. Refers to the building of new structures in an urban area, usually

after tearing down the old ones.

STUDY ON THE TRENDS OF RAINFALL AND FLOOD IN CDO

River Basin. Refers to the area of land drained by a river and its tributaries.

Seasonality. Refers to a characteristic of a time series in which the data

experiences regular and predictable changes that recur every calendar year.

Trend. Refers to a general direction in which something is developing or

changing.

Urban Flooding. Refers to the buildup of floodwaters that happens when a

drainage system cannot handle the amount of stormwater coming in or remove it quickly

enough.

Water Level. Refers to the top that water in a reservoir, river, storage tank, etc.

reaches.
STUDY ON THE TRENDS OF RAINFALL AND FLOOD IN CDO

CHAPTER II

Review of Related Literature

Relationship Between Heavy Rainfall and Floods

Both theoretically and practically, it is significant that rainfall and flood discharge

probability are correlated (Breinl, Lun, Müller-Thomyac, & Blöschl, 2021). In the

Continental United States (CONUS), a Miller (2018) study analyzing the relationship

between excessive rainfall accumulation and flood amplitude found no significant

correlation between the two. However, for watersheds that did not suffer significant land

use change over the research period, it was discovered that the association between high

rainfall and floods increased marginally with an increasing percentage of urban area. In

contrast to the Miller study, in the summary of a study by Woldegebrael, Melesse, &

Kidanewold (2020), extreme climate and weather events that provide variable torrential

rain have a small to major impact on runoff that causes flooding.

A study by Sharma, Wasko, & Lettenmaier (2018) has a same conclusion as the

Miller (2018) study. In the Sharma, Wasko, & Lettenmaier (2018), it states that more

frequent intense rainfall events do not always result in more flooding. Peak flood

conditions depend on a variety of hydraulic parameters, including physiography,

STUDY ON THE TRENDS OF RAINFALL AND FLOOD IN CDO

drainage, catchment area, and vegetation cover. In addition, there are a few surprising

factors that influence how floods react to heavy precipitation. As a result, there is still no

evidence connecting heavy rainfall events to an increase in flood frequency.

However, a study by Breinl, Lun, Müller-Thomyac, and Blöschl (2021) found

another way to correlate extreme rainfall and flood. Instead of just comparing the rainfall-

flood relationship of individual events, they applied the concept of elasticity to extreme

rainfall and streamflow. Elasticity is defined as the relative change in streamflow divided

by the relative change in precipitation. The study's findings indicate that the elasticity of

exceptional rainfall to floods and the elasticity of yearly rainfall to streamflow are

similar. Elasticities are greater in areas with low yearly precipitation (where precipitation

episodes tend to be brief and convective) than in areas with high annual precipitation

(where rainfall events are longer and more often of orographic nature).

Flooding Occurrences that are Caused by Heavy Rainfall

Heavy precipitation, which is frequently appreciated because it supplies the water

required for human and agricultural usage, is sometimes to blame for catastrophic and

destructive flash flooding. Floods killed more people in the United States than any other

convective weather hazard from 1986 to 2015, and similar findings can be found in other

parts of the world (Schumacher, 2017).

Heavy rainfall can cause flooding, landslides, and other disasters. Among the

world's deadliest weather occurrences, they bring destruction. More than 470 people were

murdered this year by severe rains in the Indian state of Kerala, and more than 200
STUDY ON THE TRENDS OF RAINFALL AND FLOOD IN CDO

people were killed by flooding in southwestern Japan. In the United States, nine out of

the eleven natural disasters in the year 2018 have caused damages of at least US$1 billion

have been caused by flooding, severe storms, or tropical cyclones (“Why Extreme Rains

Are Gaining Strength as the Climate Warms,” 2018).

Factors Contributing to Floods in Southeast Asia

The most frequent and destructive natural disaster in the world is flooding. It is a

threat to the environment that endangers human life, destroys infrastructure, disrupts

economic activity, and depletes ecological resources. Southeast Asia is a region that is

particularly vulnerable to frequent and severe natural disasters. Over the past few

decades, flooding in Southeast Asia has become more frequent and severe. Many areas of

Southeast Asia are currently experiencing flooding, which is a significant problem.

Typhoons, torrential rainfall, and tropical storms are just a few of the many causes that

have contributed to the floods in Southeast Asia (Torti, 2012).

Floods are a constant problem in the Philippines and are typically brought on by a

number of events, such as typhoons, tropical depressions, protracted periods of heavy

rain, choked waterways, and faulty street drainage (World Bank Group, 2012). According

to another study by Cabrera & Lee (2019), the main causes of this issue are the

increasingly frequent and intense typhoons and rainfall. The impacts of floods are

becoming more and more severe as a result of human activities like urbanization and the

expansion of communities and assets in floodplains. The insufficient capacity of river

systems, human populations in low-lying locations, and the rapid increase of human
STUDY ON THE TRENDS OF RAINFALL AND FLOOD IN CDO

settlements without improving the drainage infrastructures are all phenomena that

frequently lead to flooding.

According to an article titled “What Are the Factors That Causes Flood?” (2012),

devastating floods frequently occur in India as a result of monsoon rainfall, which takes

the form of intense downpour. Other factors that have directly or indirectly contributed to

the threat of floods in the nation include deforestation, silting of riverbeds, poor land use

practices, haphazard settlement activities in flood plains, obstruction of natural drainage

by development activities, and rise in water table due to excessive irrigation.

The flooding issue in Malaysia is influenced by a number of elements, including

terrain, geomorphology, drainage, engineering constructions, and climate. The majority

of floods are brought on by storms that produce heavy amounts of precipitation quickly,

including both convective and frontal storms. The main determinants of flood danger are

rainfall intensity and duration (Khan, 2014).

According to the research results of a study conducted by Thanvisitthpon, Pal, &

Shrestha (2018), the capital city's geology, tidal bores, and soil subsidence are the three

main causes of Bangkok's ongoing floods. The results of the questionnaire survey of the

show that the majority of people living in the capital's flood-prone neighborhoods view

clogged drains, congested sewers, and a lack of staff and equipment as the three most

important factors causing the city to be vulnerable to flooding and making flood-related

measures ineffective.

The Philippines, India, Malaysia, and Thailand, all have similar factors that

contribute to floods. This is mainly because they have similarities in geographical

STUDY ON THE TRENDS OF RAINFALL AND FLOOD IN CDO

location (located near the equator) and their climate is categorized as equatorial and only

experiences two types of seasons, wet and dry. But for countries that have four seasons,

they have another variable affecting and contributing to floods, which is snowmelt. For

instance, the majority of precipitation that falls in Canada during the winter is stored as

snow or ice on the ground. Huge amounts of water are discharged during the spring melt,

which explains a significant spring runoff and flooding. If runoff from severe rainfall is

added to the rising snowmelt runoff, the situation might become considerably more

serious (Climate Change Canada, 2013).

Negative Effects of Rainfall

To understand the purpose of this study, first, take a look at the negative effects

rainfall can bring. Particularly in tropical regions, localized intense rainfall events, along

with environmental changes (deforestation and/or urbanization), may frequently cause the

occurrence of hydrological hazards, such as floods, flash floods, and landslides (Ávila,

Guerrero, Escobar, & Justino, 2019). Flooding causes heavy infrastructural damage, other

effects of floods include deterioration of social services, disruptions in the economy,

health-related problems, and the effects of population displacement (such as disruptions

in the food supply chain, undernutrition, water/vector-borne infections, and being hurt,

displaced, or left homeless) (Schultz, 2006; Milojevic et al., 2011; Lowe et al., 2013;

Moftakhari et al., 2017). Often, these impacts are magnified when the floods are due to

persistent and recurrent rainfall. Such floods typically last longer (henceforth called long-

duration floods) and are associated with repeated rainfall events in the regions (Najibi &
STUDY ON THE TRENDS OF RAINFALL AND FLOOD IN CDO

Devineni, 2018). Another negative effect of rainfall is soil erosion. Soil erosion occurs

when raindrops loosen the soil as they splash against it. Rain that runs off the surface of

the ground carries loose soil with it when the soil is unable to absorb any more

precipitation. Fertilizers and other types of pollution are carried by this type of runoff into

larger bodies of water, harming fish and lowering the quality of drinking water. In rivers

and streams, accumulated soil can eventually cause them to dry out or overflow their

banks.

Tools and Methods Used in Gathering Rainfall Data

Rainfall is a measurement of how much water rain falls as rain for a certain

amount of time. It is standard practice at climatological and synoptic stations around the

world to measure rainfall at each scheduled hour and then compute the total rainfall over

the previous six and twelve hours. In many facets of agriculture, forestry, industry,

education, and other activities, regular rainfall measurement is also a crucial requirement.

Continuous data on local conditions are particularly important for farmers and irrigation

professionals, scientists looking into crop performance and soil erosion, and water and

river authorities looking into reservoir supplies and groundwater feeding into rivers.

Rainfall is rarely uniform in intensity or duration across a wide area.

Calculating evaporation also requires precise measurement. The most common

method of collection is the rain gauge. This needs to be placed in a spot that is typical of

the area where rainfall will be measured. In order to cover the average rainfall over a

large area, a network of sites is frequently integrated. Rainfall is measured against time
STUDY ON THE TRENDS OF RAINFALL AND FLOOD IN CDO

and expressed in terms of how deep it would cover the ground there if there was no

evaporation or runoff. The rain gauge is frequently combined with other tools to provide

a comprehensive picture of the local climatic conditions (Mahmoud, 2008-2009).

A cylindrical vessel assembly kept outside to collect rain makes up a rain gauge.

At regular intervals, the rain gauge's accumulation of precipitation is measured. The

exposure circumstances of the rain gauge have an impact on rainfall catch (Mishra,

2019).

Rain Gauges may be classified broadly into two classes, non-recording rain

gauges and recording rain gauges. Non-recording rain gauges merely collect rainwater

and do not record the quantity of rainfall. The most extensively used non-recording rain

gauge is Symon’s gauge. 12.7 cm in diameter circular collecting area joined to a funnel.

The collector's rim is suspended 30.5 cm above the ground in a horizontal plane.

The rainfall catch is released from the funnel into a receiving vessel. A metallic

container houses the funnel and the bottle that serves as the collection vessel. A suitable

graduated measuring jar is used to measure the water collected in the bottle with an

accuracy of 0.1mm. Rainfall is measured in millimeters or centimeters of water.

A permanent, automatic record of rainfall is provided by recording rain gauges. It

has a mechanical setup that automatically records on graph paper the total amount of rain

that has fallen since the record began. It creates a plot of total precipitation over time

(mass curve of rainfall). Since they keep track of cumulative rainfall, these rain gauges

are also known as integrating rain gauges. It provides the times of rain's onset and

cessation in addition to the total amount of precipitation at a station (thereby giving the
STUDY ON THE TRENDS OF RAINFALL AND FLOOD IN CDO

duration of rainfall events). The intensity of the rainfall for any given time period is

determined by the plot's slope. They are able to offer an ongoing record for a number of

days. They are very helpful in remote and hilly areas. They are installed in other places

along with a non-recording rain gauge.

Types of Rain Gauges

A permanent, automated record of rainfall is provided by recording rain gauges. It

features a mechanical setup that automatically records on graph paper the total amount of

rain that has fallen since the record began. It creates a graphic of total precipitation over

time (mass curve of rainfall). Since they keep track of accumulated rainfall, these rain

gauges are also known as integrating rain gauges.

Some commonly used recording rain gauges include the tipping or tilting bucket

type rain gauges. The design principle for a rain gauge that tilts or tips is very

straightforward. A container is divided into two compartments, each of which is vertical,

and it is balanced in an unsteady equilibrium about a horizontal axis. in the place it

usually is (“Rain Gauge: Uses, Types, Diagram, Rainfall Measurement, Data Adjustment

& Site Selection – Cement Concrete,” 2020).

Another commonly used recording rain gauge is the weighing bucket type. The

catch empties into a bucket that is attached to a scale for weighing. On a clockwork-

driven chart, the weight of the bucket and its contents are recorded. The device displays a

plot of cumulative rainfall over time (mass curve of rainfall). The recording unit in some
STUDY ON THE TRENDS OF RAINFALL AND FLOOD IN CDO

instruments is built in such a way that the pen reverses direction at a predetermined value

(Mishra, 2019).

The floating type rain gauge or more commonly referred to as the natural siphon

type rain gauge is another commonly used recording rain gauge. This kind of rain gauge

has a collector in the form of a funnel that connects to the floating chamber. The float

rises as the precipitation builds up on the collector, and a pen attached to the float uses a

clockwise mechanism to record the precipitation on a rotating drum. An intricate system

of levers powers the pen. The siphon arrangement is used to use the siphonic action to

empty the float chamber once the float reaches its maximum level (“Types of Rain Gauge

for Rainfall Measurement,” 2020).

Rain Gauge Station

Most watersheds' real rainfall network densities are much worse than those

suggested by the World Meteorological Organization. The problem of minimal rainfall

network density has been the focus of extensive research. WMO advises certain follow-

up rain gauge station densities for various catchment types of small mountainous areas

that have erratic precipitation, it is advised that stations cover 25 km2. The density

decreases to 10 to 20 km2 per station in metropolitan areas, according to the same WMO

criteria.

Selection of Rain Gauge Stations In order that the rainfall catch of a rain gauge

accurately represents the rainfall in the area surrounding the rain gauge, certain standards

are followed while establishing rain gauge stations. The rain gauge station must fulfill
STUDY ON THE TRENDS OF RAINFALL AND FLOOD IN CDO

following requirements: The ground must be level and in the open and the instrument

must represent a horizontal catch surface The rain gauge must be set as near the ground

as possible to reduce wind effects The rain gauge must be set sufficiently high to prevent

splashing, flooding etc. the instrument must be surrounded by an open fenced area of at

least 5.5m x 5.5m. No object must be closer to the rain gauge than 30m or twice the

height of the obstruction (Mishra, 2019).

Economic Impacts of Floods

One of the most destructive natural calamities on Earth is flooding. It is also, after

wildfires, the natural calamity that affects the world the most widely. Floods occur when

extremely heavy rainfall happens, and the inability of the area affected to retain

rainwater. To address the impacts of floods, it is essential to determine their exact

economic consequences. Natural disaster damage is thought to include both direct and

indirect effects on economic activity, primarily disruptions to production activities and

decreases in household income. Direct effects on economic activity include things like

loss of life and physical damage to assets owned by firms and households as well as to

public infrastructure (Ashizawa, Sudo, & Yamamoto 2022). Another study by Tanoue,

Taguchi, Nakata, Watanabe, Fujimori, & Hirabayashi (2020) states that floods with

prolonged inundation not only result in direct economic losses within and outside the

affected area, such as the destruction of physical assets, but also in direct and indirect

economic losses. Direct economic losses include missed opportunities as a result of

company interruptions and the expense of taking emergency measures like cleaning,
STUDY ON THE TRENDS OF RAINFALL AND FLOOD IN CDO

whereas indirect economic losses have an impact on other sectors of the trade and supply

network.

Methods in Monitoring Water Levels

A monitoring plan is a document that outlines the procedures for measuring the

water quality and monitoring the water body. The procedures for water sampling and

other activities will conform to the monitoring objectives with the help of a well-designed

monitoring plan. Plans are created taking into account time, money, equipment,

manpower, and implementation constraints in accordance with the monitoring objectives.

The activities should be carefully planned to make the best use of resources since water

quality monitoring requires both time and resources (Environmental Management Bureau

Department of Environment and Natural Resources Water Quality Monitoring Manual

Volume: Manual on Ambient Water Quality Monitoring, 2008).

Low Impact Development

In comparison to traditional urban drainage systems, minimal impact development

(LID) is usually thought to be a more sustainable approach to managing urban rainwater.

However, when varied rainfall characteristics are considered, their impacts on urban

flooding at a scale of urban drainage systems are not fully understood. . For a

comprehensive evaluation of the LID approaches, a variety of storm occurrences with

various amounts of rainfall, durations, and locations of peak intensity are considered.
STUDY ON THE TRENDS OF RAINFALL AND FLOOD IN CDO

When compared to the design of a traditional drainage system, the results are quantified

by the overall flood volume reduction that occurs after a storm event. According to the

data, all three LID scenarios are more effective at reducing flooding during stronger and

shorter storm occurrences. The location of the peak intensity, however, has a substantial

impact on how well they work. That example, early peak storm events are ideal for

swales, middle peak storm events are best for permeable pavements, and late peak storm

events are best for green roofs. A recently developed water balancing method, which

compares the effective storage depth of LID designs with the accumulative rainfall

amounts at the start and end of floods in the conventional drainage system, can be used to

explain trends in flood reduction. To effectively manage urban flooding, this article offers

insight into how LID designs perform under various rainfall parameters (Qin, 2013).

CDRRMD

The Regional Office of Civil Defense in Northern Mindanao, or Region 10, plays

a vital role in managing disaster risks. Operating under the Office of Civil Defense

(OCD), it conducts diverse training programs to strengthen community-based disaster

risk reduction and management (CBDRRM). Collaborating with entities like the

Department of Science and Technology (DOST), Region 10 focuses on improving

disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. The City Disaster Risk Reduction

Management Department (CDRRMD) in Cagayan de Oro actively engages in such

efforts, as seen in their participation in events like the 'RESCUE M.A.R.C.H,' illustrating
STUDY ON THE TRENDS OF RAINFALL AND FLOOD IN CDO

a comprehensive approach involving both regional and city-level initiatives in disaster

risk reduction and management.

History of Flood and Rainfall in Cagayan de Oro City

The city of Cagayan de Oro in the Philippines has experienced several instances

of flooding due to heavy rainfall. In September 2023, heavy to intense rain caused the

water level of the Iponan River to rise, resulting in flooding in various areas of the city

and affecting a total of 20 families and 85 persons. Additionally, in January 2023,

localized thunderstorms led to flooded areas in Cagayan de Oro, affecting 273 families

and resulting in two deaths3. These events highlight the vulnerability of the city to

flooding during periods of heavy rainfall (Report Detail | ASEAN Disaster Information

Network, 2023). Similarly, in October 2022, flash floods caused by inclement weather

affected several barangays, resulting in casualties and the evacuation of affected

individuals (Luczon, 2022).

PAGASA

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services

Administration (PAGASA) covers PAGASA Region 10 in the Philippines. Bukidnon,

Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental, and Misamis Oriental are all part of

Region 10, often known as Northern Mindanao. PAGASA provides local weather

predictions, flood warnings, and other meteorological information to assist the local

population in preparing for and mitigating the effects of natural disasters.

STUDY ON THE TRENDS OF RAINFALL AND FLOOD IN CDO

PAGASA's involvement in Region 10 is critical for delivering accurate and timely

weather forecasts and warnings, especially during typhoon season, to safeguard the safety

and well-being of residents. The agency's initiatives help to reduce catastrophe risk and

manage disasters in Northern Mindanao.

Spearman’s Rank Correlation

Spearman's Rank Correlation is a nonparametric statistical method designed to assess the

strength and direction of association between two ranked variables (Laerd Statistics,

2022). It serves as an alternative to the Pearson product-moment correlation, particularly

when assumptions like normal distribution or linear relationship are not met (Laerd

Statistics, 2022). The Spearman's Rank Correlation coefficient (ρ or ) ranges between -1

and +1, denoting perfect negative association at -1, no association at 0, and perfect

positive association at +1 (Simplilearn, n.d.).The formula for calculating Spearman's

Rank Correlation coefficient is expressed as follows:

6 ∑ di
2
ρ=1− 2
n(n −1)

where (d i)represents the difference between the two ranks of each observation, and (n ) is

the number of observations (Laerd Statistics, 2022).

This statistical method is applicable to variables categorized as ordinal, interval, or ratio

(Laerd Statistics, 2022). It is particularly advantageous when exploring monotonic

relationships between variables, where an increase in the value of one variable

STUDY ON THE TRENDS OF RAINFALL AND FLOOD IN CDO

corresponds either to an increase or decrease in the value of the other (Laerd Statistics,

2022).
STUDY ON THE TRENDS OF RAINFALL AND FLOOD IN CDO

CHAPTER III

Methodology

Research Design

The research design employed in this study is Correlational Research. The

objectives of this study are to gather and analyze data to establish a relationship between

the trends of rainfall and urban and rural flood water level in Cagayan de Oro City for the

last 5 years, and to provide a 5-year forecast of what the situation will be if the current

one persists. To do this, monthly rainfall data alongside urban and rural flood water level

data in Cagayan de Oro City from years 2018 to 2022, will be gathered from the

respective departments and will be analyzed by the researchers. The study area has an

importance with respect to rainfall and urban and rural flood water level.

Research Setting

The study area will be the whole Cagayan de Oro City, Misamis Oriental. The

data that will be gathered covers the whole Cagayan de Oro City but the departments,

which are the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services

Administration (PAGASA) and City Disaster Risk Reduction and Management

Department (CDRRMD) where the data will be retrieved are located at Claro M Recto
STUDY ON THE TRENDS OF RAINFALL AND FLOOD IN CDO

Avenue, El Salvador City, Misamis Oriental and FJGR+RC8, Cagayan de Oro, Misamis

Oriental respectively.

Figure 2. Map of Cagayan de Oro City

Sampling Procedure

Purposive sampling. The researchers will proceed to the offices of PAGASA and

CDRRMD in order to obtain rainfall data and urban and rural flood water level data. The

researchers will collect monthly data for the past 5 years (2018 – 2022). The Mann-

Kendall test requires at least 4 data samples to be used in analysis, with this in mind, the

researchers chose to collect monthly data because if yearly data would be collected, it

would be too little and collecting weekly and daily data would pose the possibility of
STUDY ON THE TRENDS OF RAINFALL AND FLOOD IN CDO

producing unnecessary noise, hence the collection monthly data (“Design Trend Mann-

Kendall,” n.d.).

Data Collection Method

Preparation of Letters. A Letter of Permission was sent to the school principal of

Gusa Regional Science High School X in order to conduct the data collection of this

study. A letter asking for the required data (daily rainfall data for the years 2018-2022)

was sent to the office of PAGASA, and the researchers personally went to the office of

CDRRMD to give them the letter requesting for urban flood data in CDO for the years

2018-2022.

Collection of the Rainfall and Urban and Rural Flood Water Level Data. Once

the Letter of Permission was signed and approved by the school principal and the

respective organizations acknowledged the letters, the researchers then signed a data

agreement for the data provided by PAGASA and the researchers received the data from

PAGASA and CDRRMD through email.

Organizing the Data Collected. After receiving the data, the researchers then

organized the rainfall data by getting the mean of the two Automated Rain Gauge

Stations (ARGS) in Pelaez and Cabula to get the

STUDY ON THE TRENDS OF RAINFALL AND FLOOD IN CDO

After receiving and collecting the monthly rainfall and urban and rural flood water level

data, the researchers will then organize the raw data and get its mean and percentage.

Data Analysis

In order to establish if the set of data values is increasing over time or dropping

over time, and whether the trend in either direction is statistically significant, the

researchers will apply the Mann-Kendall Test in a software or manually to study the

difference in signs between earlier and later data. The sign values will tend to

continuously rise of decrease if a trend is present. Every value in the time series is

compared to every value that came before it, yielding a total of n(n - ) / 2 data pairing,

where “n” is the number of observations in the set. Then, the Spearman’s rank correlation

2
6∑d
efficient ( ρ=1− i ) will be used to evaluate how well a monotonic function may
2
n(n −1)

be used to represent the relationship between two variables, where in ρ is Spearman’s

rank correlation, d i is the difference between two ranks of each observation, and n is the

number of observations made. When the relationship between the two has been

established, the researchers will proceed to look for an existing monthly prediction

equation and modify it to create a yearly prediction equation. To prove the efficacy of the

equation, it will be used in calculating the data from the previous 5 years and will be

compared, if it yields the same results then the equation is correct.

STUDY ON THE TRENDS OF RAINFALL AND FLOOD IN CDO