Professional Documents
Culture Documents
JP Morgan-Guide-to-China
JP Morgan-Guide-to-China
JP Morgan-Guide-to-China
David Lebovitz Gabriela Santos Vincent Juvyns Marcella Chow Chaoping Zhu,
New York New York Michael Bell, CFA Hong Kong CFA
Luxembourg
London Shanghai
Jack Manley Meera Pandit, CFA Hugh Gimber, CFA Tilmann Galler, CFA Ian Hui
New York New York London Frankfurt Hong Kong
Jordan Jackson Stephanie Aliaga Max McKechnie Maria Paola Toschi Adrian Tong Shogo Maekawa
New York New York London Milan Hong Kong Tokyo
Mary Park Durham Nimish Vyas Natasha May Elena Domecq Agnes Lin
New York New York London Madrid Jennifer Qiu Taipei
Hong Kong
Marina Valentini
Sao Paulo
Brandon Hall Kathleen Clum Zara Nokes Lucia Gutierrez Mellado Kerry Craig, CFA
New York New York Sahil Gauba
London Madrid Mumbai Melbourne
GDP size of China and U.S. Real GDP per capita and urbanization ratios
USD billions, current prices USD, Constant prices, 1960 – 2032**
$50,000 $70,000 2032
Forecast*
China 2027
China 2022
$45,000 contribution
GDP
to global
ranking $60,000
Decade growth
$40,000 1980s 8 1%
1990s 8 20%
2000s 5 15% $50,000
$35,000
2010s 2 32%
$0
$0 15 35 55 75 95
'80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20 '25 '30 Urbanization Ratio
Growth of the middle class Contribution to middle class growth: 2023 to 2030
% of total population Millions of people
100% 1,400
1995 2023F 2030F 34 8
47 -1
1,200
79% 79% 71
80%
75%
72% Rest of
1,000 Asia, 168
61%
60% 57% 800 China,
304
51%
41% 600
40%
40% 38%
34%
30%
400
India,
642
20%
200
4%
1% 0% 0
Asia Pacific Middle East Sub-Saharan Central and North America Europe
0% and North Africa South America
India Indonesia China Brazil Mexico Africa
Contribution to potential growth
Percentage points, real growth rate
15% Potential
TFP TFP Labor Capital GDP
Labor Growth
13% 2000-2007 4.1 1.6 4.4 10.2
Capital
Actual GDP Growth 2008-2015 2.4 1.7 4.8 9.0
11% 2016-2020 1.9 0.5 3.6 6.0
2021-2025 2.5 0.1 2.6 5.3
9% 2026-2030 2.4 -0.1 2.0 4.4
7%
5%
3%
1%
-1%
'90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20 '25 '30
Share of GDP by sector
% of nominal GDP
60%
2022: 52.8%
Agriculture Manufacturing Services
50%
2022: 39.9%
40%
30%
20%
2022: 7.3%
10%
0%
'78 '83 '88 '93 '98 '03 '08 '13 '18
Contribution to GDP growth
Percentage points, real growth rate
24%
12%
8%
1Q23:
4.5%
4%
0%
-4%
-8%
'78 '83 '88 '93 '98 '03 '08 '13 '18 '23
Total exports and imports China’s exports by product
% of GDP % of total exports
40% 50%
35%
Machinery and Electronics
Exports 45%
30%
25%
2022: 19.9% 40%
20%
15% 35%
Imports
10%
2022: 15.0%
5% 30%
0%
'82 '86 '90 '94 '98 '02 '06 '10 '14 '18 '22 25%
Current account balance
% of GDP
20%
12%
10%
8% 15%
Textiles and Clothing
6%
2022: 10% Metals
4%
2.3%
2%
0% 5%
-2% Chemicals
Transportation
-4% 0%
-6% '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 '13 '16 '19
'80 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 '13 '16 '19 '22
China’s share in global trade China’s major trading partners
% of world total trade, goods only USD billions, rolling 12-month sum, goods only
16%
-$500 -$300 -$100 $100 $300 $500 $700
2022:
15%
14% U.S. $381
6% Canada $3
Japan -$8
4%
South Korea -$21 Imports
2% Exports
Brazil -$51
Trade balance
Taiwan -$154
0%
'80 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 '13 '16 '19 '22
Contribution to global consumption growth China’s share in global luxury goods consumption
Household consumption Domestic and overseas spending by Chinese consumers as % total
China U.S. Europe Rest of world 40% 40%
100% 35%
32%
30%
90%
28%
35% 19%
80% 38% 20%
48%
54%
70% 10%
12%
60% 9% 0%
2012 2018 2020 2025F*
15%
50% China’s Singles’ Day vs. U.S. holiday sales
12% USD billions, gross merchandise value
6% 32%
40% 90 84.5 84.5**
33% Prime Day
Cyber Monday 74.1
75
18% Black Friday
30%
37% 28% 60 Thanksgiving, Sat. & Sun.
China Singles' day 47.2
44.8 45.1
20% 45 35.7 38.4 14.9
14.5 14.3
27% 28.5 30.8
23% 23% 30 11.6 9.1
10% 9.0 8.9
10.2
12% 7.4 11.3
9% 15 6.2 10.8 10.7
9.4
0% 7.9 11.2 11.9
7.2 10.4
0 4.2
2000 2005 2010 2015 2021
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Household
Householdsavings
savingsrate
rate Household
Household wealth
wealth by
by asset
asset type
type
%
%household
householddisposable income,
disposable latest*
income, latest* %
% of
oftotal,
total,as
asofofDec.
Dec.2019
2019
40%
40% 35% Property Cash & deposits
36% Equity & mutual fund Insurance & pension
35%
Other securities Others
30%
30% 100% 1% 3% 2%
25% 4%
4%
1% 9%
20% 15%
3%
20% 13% 90%
15% 17% 7% 5%
7% 8% 22%
10% 4% 12% 23%
11%
5% 80% 12%
10% 7% 8%
0% 19%
Japan UK U.S. Euro Mexico China 70%
0%
Area 17%
UK Euro Area Japan U.S. Mexico China 60%
Social
Social benefits
benefits to
to households**
households in cash** 32%
In
% cash, % latest*
of GDP, of GDP 50%
25%
25% 28%
Euro
EuroArea
Area U.S.
U.S. UKUK
40%
20% Japan
Japan China
China Mexico
Mexico 73%
20%
66%
15%
30%
15%
15%
10% 20%
10%
30%
24%
5%
5% 10%
0%
0% 0%
'00
2000 '02 2004
'04 '06 2008
'08 '10 2012
'12 '14 2016
'16 '18 2020
'20 China Korea Taiwan U.S.
Distribution of pre-tax national income Top 10%’s ownership of national income and wealth*
50% 100%
Middle 40%
42.9% 90%
45%
79%
43.4% 80%
40%
70%
35% 62%
15% 20%
13.7%
10% 10%
5% 0%
Wealth
Wealth
Wealth
Wealth
Wealth
Wealth
Wealth
Income
Income
Income
Income
Income
Income
Income
0%
'79 '83 '87 '91 '95 '99 '03 '07 '11 '15 '19 Japan France UK Norway Germany China U.S.
Total population Crude birth and death rate
Billion people Per 1,000 people
1.6 30
Forecast
Forecast
1.4
25
Birth rate
1.2
Death rate
20
1.0
0.8 15
0.6
10
0.4
Total population
Urban population 5
0.2
0.0 0
'90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20 '25 '30 '35 '40 '45 '50 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20 '25 '30 '35 '40 '45 '50
Patent applications Research and development
# of PCT patent filings* Expenditures as % of GDP
80,000 4%
United States
Japan
70,000
Germany
China
60,000 3%
50,000
40,000 2%
30,000
20,000 1%
United States
Japan
10,000
Germany
China
0 0%
'97 '02 '07 '12 '17 '22 '96 '00 '04 '08 '12 '16 '20
Current self-sufficiency rate amongst different technology products
Percentage points
100%
Higher technology
ERP software entry barrier
Cloud IaaS
80% PCB
Software related
Industrial products
Semiconductors/ integrated circuit related
Self-sufficiency rate
60%
80%
14 China
70%
12
60%
10 50%
8 40%
U.S.
30%
6
20%
EU
4
10%
2
0%
'95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20 '25 '30 '35 '40 '45 '50
0 Oil Coal Gas Hydro Nuclear Renewables*
'90 '00 '10 '20 '30 '40 '50 '60
China’s GDP per capita vs. Five Year Plans (FYP)
USD, nominal price
$18,000
12th FYP: 13th FYP:
• Innovation Forecast*
• Rebalance to
$16,000 consumption from • Environment
investment • Supranational
• Shift coastal cities • Reform one-child
$14,000 from manufacturing policy
to R&D and • New urbanization
$12,000 services
• Expand highways
11th FYP: and highspeed
• Quantitative targets railways
$10,000 • 7.5% annual GDP 14th FYP:
• Prudent monetary • Expand domestic
growth policy and curb
• Increase services’ demand while
$8,000 housing prices keeping development
share in GDP and
employment of external sectors
10th FYP: • Create 45mn jobs • Improve self-
$6,000 sufficiency of key
• 7% GDP growth
• Boost international technologies and
competitiveness products
$4,000
• Balance external • Promote common
position prosperity
$2,000 • Environmental
protection
$0
'00 '05 '10 '15 '20 '25
Foreign investment into onshore Chinese equities and bonds
Foreign investor outstanding holdings, USD billion
20
Date Key capital market developments in China
Bond holdings 11/2002 China opens its domestic stock market via Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor program
Equity holdings 11/2014 Launch of Shanghai North and Southbound Stock Connect*
China allows foreign central banks, international financial organizations and
07/2015
sovereign wealth funds to enter domestic bond market
16 12/2016 Launch of Shenzhen North and Southbound Stock Connect*
06/2017 MSCI announces plan to include China A-shares in global indices
07/2017 Launch of Northbound Bond Connect**
09/2018 FTSE Russell announces plans to include China A-shares in global indices
01/2019 Bloomberg announces inclusion of Chinese CNY denominated bonds into global indices
09/2019 China lifts quota for QFI*** programs
12 10/2020 Launch of ETF cross listing in Shenzhen
06/2021 Launch of ETF cross listing in Shanghai
09/2021 Launch of Southbound Bond Connect**
07/2022 Launch of ETF Connect
2H2023 Proposed launch of Swap Connect
Capital market
reform developments
0
'14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
New energy vehicles (BEV* and PHEV**) in use Electric vehicle charging points
Millions Thousands, publicly accessible
30 2,500
Thousands
Countries/Regions 2022
25 128
China 14.1 Charging points
Europe 7.4 per 100 BEV and
20 Countries/Regions
U.S. 3.0 PHEV vehicles in
Rest of the world 1.4 use in 2022
15 2,000 490
China 12.5
Europe 6.6
10 U.S. 4.3
5
114
1,500
0
'15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22
345
New energy vehicles (BEV* and PHEV**) sales
%, share of total car sales 99
50% 1,000
Projected*** 246
Countries/Regions 2022 2025F 1760
40% China 29% 45% 77
Europe 21% 32%
30% U.S. 8% 22% 188 1150
500
20% 54 810
43 138
38 113 510
10% 32 98
213 270
61 141
0% 0 59
'15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22
Contribution to global renewable electricity generation in 2021 Contribution to global lithium-ion battery production
Gigawatts Battery cell manufacturing capacity, gigawatt hours
1,200 9,000
5,000
600
4,000
2,000
5x
400 4%
0x
200 2%
0 0%
'03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21
Changes in U.S. sentiment toward China* Plans to relocate out of China
% in the U.S. who have a(n) __ view of China Is your company considering, or has it already begun relocating
90% manufacturing or sourcing outside of China?**
Mar. 2023: 83% No, not considering Yes, considering Yes, started Other
75%
100% 2% 3%
Unfavorable 2%
60% 7% 7%
12%
90%
45% 8% 7%
15%
70%
Mar. 2023: 14%
0%
'05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23 60%
Foreign direct investment
USD billions 50%
20
U.S. FDI into China China FDI into U.S. 83% 83%
40%
15 74%
10 30%
5
20%
0
-5 10%
-10
'03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 0%
2020 2021 2022
Chinese major cities’ subway passenger flow Chinese major cities’ traffic congestion*
Index, 2019 average = 100, 7-day moving average Index, 2019 average = 100, 7-day moving average
160 120
Shenzhen
Beijing
140
Shanghai 110
120
100
100
80 90
60
80
40 Shenzhen
70
Beijing
20 Shanghai
0 60
Jan-'22 Apr-'22 Jul-'22 Oct-'22 Jan-'23 Apr-'23 Jan-'22 Mar-'22 May-'22 Jul-'22 Sep-'22 Nov-'22 Jan-'23
Daily flights dispatched Daily freight traffic**
Number of flights, 7-day moving average 7-day moving average
800 20 11.4 9
International flights Domestic flights (thousands) Railway volume (million tons) Truck flow (million vehicles)
Hong Kong, Macau &Taiwan flights
18
700 Number of % as of 2019
11.2 8
April 30, 2023*
flights average
Domestic 13,367 109% 16
HK, Macau 11.0 7
600 &Taiwan
259 125%
International 690 54% 14
10.8 6
500
12
10.6 5
400 10
10.4 4
8
300
10.2 3
6
200
10.0 2
4
100
2 9.8 1
0 0 9.6 0
Apr '21 Jul '21 Oct '21 Jan '22 Apr '22 Jul '22 Oct '22 Jan '23 Apr '23 May '22 Jul '22 Sep '22 Nov '22 Jan '23 Mar '23
Impact of China’s reopening on the world
China’s top 10 imported goods categories Asia markets’ dependence on Chinese tourists
% of total gross goods import value*, 2021 Chinese tourist spending as % of GDP, 2019
Top 3 markets
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% of origin 6.0%
Russia (15%), 5.5%
Mineral fuels and oils Saudi Arabia (12%),
Iraq (7%)
Taiwan (22%),
Electrical machinery and 5.0%
Korea (21%),
equipments Japan (10%)
Australia (45%),
Ores, slag and ash Brazil (13%),
Chile (10%)
4.0%
Japan (21%),
Machinery and mechanical Germany (16%),
appliances South Korea (10%)
3.2%
Japan (19%),
Photographic and medical South Korea (12%),
instruments Taiwan (12%)
3.0%
Germany (41%),
Japan (20%),
Vehicles USA (12%)
Chile (15%),
Copper articles Congo (10%), 1.0%
Japan (9%) 1.0% 0.8%
0.6% 0.6%
South Korea (21%),
Organic chemicals Japan (10%),
Taiwan (10%)
0.2%
50
50
45
Apr. 2023 Index
NBS 56.4
Caixin/Markit 56.4
40
45
35
40
30
35 25
'12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
Fixed asset investment Fixed asset investment by sector
Year-over-year change, year-to-date Year-over-year change, year-to-date
40% 40%
Jan.- Mar. 2023 y/y
Aggregate 5.1%
Public 10.0%
Private 0.6% 30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
0%
-20%
-30%
-30% -40%
'12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
Consumption Automobile sales
Year-over-year change, 3-month moving average Million units, saar
50% 35
Mar. 2023 Million units
3mma as of Mar. 2023
China 24.6
Retail sales 5.9%
U.S. 14.8
Online sales 8.9%
Euro Area 8.7
40% 30
30% 25
20% 20
10% 15
0% 10
-10% 5
-20% 0
'16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23
Consumer confidence PMI business expectation sub-index
Index Index
130 70
125
Income expectations 65
120 Non-manufacturing
60
115
110
55
105
Manufacturing
Willingness to 50
100
consume
Consumer confidence
95 45
90
40
85
80 35
'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
Surveyed urban unemployment rate Surveyed urban unemployment rate by age
7.0% 21%
Mar 2023:
19.6%
19%
6.5%
17%
15%
6.0%
Aged 16 to 24
13%
5.5% 11%
9%
Mar. 2023:
5.3%
5.0%
7%
Aged 25 to 59 Mar. 2023:
4.3%
5%
4.5%
3%
4.0% 1%
'17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
Property prices and volume Sources of funding for property developers**
Year-over-year % change CNY trillions
40% 25
Others
Personal mortgage loans
30%
Deposit and advanced payment
0.6
20 Self-raised funds 0.7
20% Domestic Loans 0.7
3.2
0.7 3.0
30 20%
25
15%
20
15 10%
10
5%
5
0 0%
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22
Nonperforming loans (NPL) of banks Capital adequacy ratios
CNY trillions
350% 3.5 16%
Nonperforming loans Capital adequacy ratio
14%
250% 2.5
13%
200% 2.0
12%
150% 1.5
11%
100% 1.0
10%
50% 0.5 9%
8%
0% 0.0 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22
'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22
Goods trade Balance of trade
Year-over-year change, 3-month moving average USD billions, 3-month moving average
80% 100
60
50
40%
40
30
20%
20
10
0
0%
-10
-20
-20% -30
'15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
Consumer price index Producer price index
Year-over-year change Year-over-year change
9% 20%
Mar. 2023 y/y Mar. 2023 y/y
Headline CPI 0.7% Headline PPI -2.5%
Core CPI 0.7% 26% Producer goods -3.4%
7% Food inflation (RHS) 2.4% Consumer goods 0.9%
15%
5% 17%
10%
3%
9%
5%
1%
0%
0%
-1%
-9% -5%
-3%
2,000
Open market operations*
Monetary policy tools**
1,600
1,200
800
400
-400
-800
-1,200
'14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
Key policy rates Policy rate Description Apr. 28, 2023
Per annum
Loan prime rate (1-Yr/5-Yr) New benchmark lending rate 3.65%/4.30%
7.5%
Medium-term lending facility Most representative policy tool 2.75%
Interbank repo Interbank market rate 2.37%
Benchmark rate for bank
Deposit rate 1.50%
savings
6.0%
Medium-term lending
facility (1-year)
3.0%
0.0%
'15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
Reserve requirement ratio
22%
20%
18%
Large banks
16%
14%
Mar. 2023:
10.75%
12%
8%
Apr. 2023:
7.75%
6%
'09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23
Credit cycles
Percentage points, credit growth – nominal GDP growth, 3-month moving average
25
Rapid rebound in CPI & PPI
20
Tightening:
Loosening: 125bps rate
216bps rate cuts, hikes, BASEL III
4tn stimulus adoption
15
Interbank
liquidity A-share
crunch market crash
Loosening: Loosening:
10 165bps rate Tightening: RRR cuts Policy
cuts, LGFV Implementation normalization
Loosening: debt of de-leveraging
56bps rate Mar. 2023:
swap** policies
cuts, trust 5.3ppts
5 boom Tightening: COVID-19
shadow Rate cut outbreak
banking
tightening
0
Global U.S. – China
Financial Wenzhou small and medium trade tensions
Crisis enterprise (SME) crisis*
Loosening: RRR and
-5 LPR cuts
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
Credit impulse and industrial metals’ prices
Percentage points, year-over-year change, % of nominal GDP Year-over-year change, 3-month moving average
25% 100%
Bloomberg industrial metals index
20% 80%
15% 60%
10% 40%
5% 20%
0% 0%
-5% -20%
-10% -40%
Credit impulse
-15% -60%
'05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21
Fiscal revenues and expenditures* Fiscal balance
Year-over-year change, 3-month moving average % of nominal GDP
30% 0%
Revenue
Expenditure -2%
Budget deficit
20%
-4%
0% -8%
Augmented deficit
-10%
-10%
-12%
-20%
-14%
-30% -16%
'14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
Chinese yuan exchange rates
Price level Index (inverted)
7.8 90
Depreciating CFETS CNY Index*
7.6
92
7.4
94
7.2
7.0 96
6.8
98
6.6
100
6.4
6.2 102
Exchange rate Description
6.0 USD/CNY Chinese Yuan in onshore market vs. U.S. dollar
104
USD/CNH Chinese Yuan in offshore market vs. U.S. dollar
5.8 CFETS CNY China Foreign Exchange Trade System basket of
USD/CNY
Index 24 currencies traded against the Chinese Yuan 106
5.6 USD/CNH
Appreciating
5.4 108
'14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
Currency weights in IMF’s SDR basket Global central bank reserve manager holdings
% of total
100% USD EUR JPY GBP RMB CAD AUD CHF Other
Pound Sterling
100%
7%
90% Japanese Yen
8% 90%
70%
70%
60% Euro
60%
29%
50%
50%
40% 40%
30% 30%
U.S. Dollar
20% 43% 20%
10% 10%
0% 0%
Currency weights in SDR basket '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22
Stock exchange market capitalizations
USD trillions, 2022
50
$40.3
40
30
20
$11.4
10 $5.4 $4.6 $3.1
0
NYSE & Nasdaq Shanghai & Shenzhen Japan Hong Kong London
$50
NYSE & Nasdaq Shanghai & Shenzhen Hong Kong
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22
Foreign investor
Share class Definition Currency Indices
access
SZSE Composite
QFII (CNY), RQFII Index, Shanghai
Securities incorporated in Mainland China, listed on the
A-shares CNY (CNH), Northbound Composite Index, CSI
Shanghai or Shenzhen Stock Exchange
Onshore Stock Connect 300, MSCI China A,
MSCI China
Securities incorporated in Mainland China, listed on the USD (Shanghai), HKD
B-shares No restrictions
Shanghai or Shenzhen Stock Exchange (Shenzhen)
Securities incorporated in Mainland China, listed on the Hong
H-shares HKD
Kong Stock Exchange
Securities of state-owned companies incorporated outside Hang Seng Index,
Red-chips HKD
Mainland China, listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange MSCI China
Offshore Securities of non-government owned companies incorporated No restrictions
P-chips HKD
outside Mainland China, listed on Hong Kong Stock Exchange
Securities (including ADRs) listed on foreign exchanges such
Overseas USD, SGD
as the Nasdaq and NYSE (N-shares), and Singapore MSCI China
(N and S-shares)
Exchange (S-shares)
60 $52 200
$48 $64
Hong Kong
45 150 33%
111 Shanghai &
30 $21 100 Shenzhen
60%
15 50 ADRs
7%
0 0
'16 '17 `18 '19 '20 '21 '22 YTD '23
Chinese stocks listed on U.S. exchanges Chinese stock performance by listing
Chinese ADRs* Price index, Jan. 2002 = 100
$2,500 350 900
Aggregate market cap Total number
(USD billions)
800
300
$2,000
700
$1,500
200 500
400
150
$1,000
300
100
200
$500 Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index
50 100
0
$0 0 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22
'06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 22 YTD-
’23
Sector weights
% of index market capitalization
50%
40%
29%29%
30%
28%
26%
19%
20% 18%
17%
14%
13% 12% 13%
11% 12%
10%
10% 8% 9%
7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
5% 6% 5%
4% 5% 5%
4% 3% 3%
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
1%
0%
Consumer Financials Communication Industrials Consumer Information Health Care Materials Utilities Real Estate Energy
Discretionary Services Staples Technology
Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) CSI 300 Index
SOE as % of sector and % of overall index market capitalization SOE as % of sector and % of overall index market capitalization
88%
80%
80% 80%
72%
70%
64% 65%
59%
60% 60% 56%
53%
47%
44%
25% 26%
20% 18%
20%
11%
4% 4%
0% 0%
Average daily turnover Participation by type of investor
USD billions, 2022 % of total trading value, latest*
$500 Individual investors Institutional investors
$459.8 100%
$450
90% 18%
$400
80%
$350
70%
$300
60%
85%
$250
50%
$100 20%
$50 10%
15%
$12.3
$0 0%
Hong Kong Shanghai & Shenzhen U.S. Shanghai Hong Kong
MSCI China intra-year declines vs. calendar year returns
Local currency, average intra-year drops of -30.4% (median: -27.5%) and annual returns positive in 15 of 30 years of an average of 4.5%
100%
80% 79%
80%
64%
59%
60%
52%
40% 35%
33%
26% YTD ‘23
19% 21%
20% 16%
10%
3% 5%
0%
0%
-1% -1% 0%
-10% -9%
-20% -13% -11%
-18% -16% -15% -17% -16%
-20% -22% -20% -19% -20%
-23% -22% -22% -23% -22%
-26% -26% -25% -17% -17%-22%
-31% -32% -30%
-40% -34% -35% -33%
-38% -39% -37% -38%
-44% -44%
-47%
-53% -51% -52%
-60% -47%
-65%
-68%
-80%
'93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23
Previous vs. current Chinese equity market corrections
MSCI China
70%
Peak-to-trough correction 4 weeks after trough
12 weeks after trough 26 weeks after trough 53%
50%
32% 34%
-10%
Apr. '11 to
-30% Sep '11
May '15 to Jan. '18 to
-33%
-37% Feb. '16 Oct. '18
-50% -43%
Feb. '21 to
Oct. '22
-63%
-70%
2011 correction 2015/16 correction 2018 correction 2021/2022 correction
MSCI China price index
200
Year(s) Principle Policy Tool Sectors
Real estate, steel, auto, power plants, cement, glass and
180 Interest rate and RRR hike, other industries with excessive capacity and/or high
2003 Macro economic control
administrative power energy consumption. Cut export tariff return for high
energy-consuming and heavy-pollution products.
Infrastructure investment, interest rate
160 2008 Economic stabilization
and RRR cuts, fiscal expansion
Highway, railway, airports, real estate
Credit control and purchase control in
2010-2011 Property market control Real estate
property market
140 2015-2018 Supply-side reform Monetary policy, administrative power
Traditional sectors (property market, steel, coal, cement,
glass), local government financing
2021- Oct 2022 Limit monopoly power Regulations, monetary policy Internet, education, health care, real estate, energy
120 Nov 2022 -
Policy pivot to support the
Stimulus measures
Mainly concentrated in real estate sector, along with
economy easing of COVID restrictions
100
Introduction of
80 policy reforms
60
40
20
0
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
MSCI China Real Estate Index
June 2020 = 100
140
Jul ‘21: Government issues
guidance on real estate
monitoring and local
governments tighten purchase Oct ‘21: National
120 restrictions measures People’s Congress Sep ‘22: PBoC
authorized the State allows flexibility
Council to pilot to reduce
property tax minimum
mortgage rates /
Nov ‘22: Growing
100 income tax rate
reopening expectations
May ‘22: PBoC lowers in secondary
mortgage rate floor home sales • 16-points notice
and cuts LPR • Easing on escrow
accounts
80 • CSRC 5-point
measure
Aug ‘20:
Introduction of
three red-line
60 rules
Dec ‘21: PBoC pledges to support
home buyers and promote healthy
development of the real estate
market
40 Jul ‘22: State Council
Mar ‘22: Authorities vowed to approves the set up of a Jan ‘23: PBoC
Jan ‘22 to Mar ‘22: Local level manage risks in real estate; and CBIRC
USD 11.8 billion rescue
easing measures introduced property tax pilot program suggest 4
fund to support distressed
suspended property developers action plans to
20 improve the
Dec ‘22: State-owned enterprise banks to issue balance sheet
developers’ offshore debt secured by onshore of high-quality
guarantee developers
0
06/20 09/20 12/20 03/21 06/21 09/21 12/21 03/22 06/22 09/22 12/22 03/23
MSCI Golden Dragon index
350
0
11/20 02/21 05/21 08/21 11/21 02/22 05/22 08/22 11/22 02/23
Share type dispersion
Price index, USD terms
150
S&P China
Hang Seng MSCI China
140 Market Performance Select ADR
Index A
Index
130 Since Jan '20 -30% -38% 9%
Since Feb '21 peak -36% -64% -30%
120 Since Oct '22 bottom 35% 49% 27%
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20 01/21 04/21 07/21 10/21 01/22 04/22 07/22 10/22 01/23 04/23
MSCI China: Forward P/E ratio
26x
Valuation Std. dev. over- Tim e
Index m easure Latest 1/29/2021 Average /under-valued period
24x
MSCI China Forw ard P/E 10.5x 17.1x 11.8x -0.5 20-year
MSCI China Price to book 1.5x 2.8x 1.7x -0.3 20-year
22x MSCI China Dividend yield 2.5% 1.4% 2.7% 0.3 20-year
Hang Seng China Enterprises (H-shares) Forw ard P/E 8.8x 11.8x 8.5x 0.3 15-year
CSI 300 (A-shares) Forw ard P/E 14.2x 13.7x 14.2x 0.0 15-year
20x
ChiNext Forw ard P/E 34.1x 57.5x 38.3x -0.4 10-year
SME Board Forw ard P/E 24.2x 28.3x 23.4x 0.2 5-year
18x
16x
+1 Standard deviation: 14.5x
14x
Apr. 2023:
Average: 11.9x 10.5x
12x
10x
6x
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
MSCI China: Price-to-earnings relative to U.S. CSI 300: Performance relative to U.S.
MSCI China vs. S&P 500, price to next 12-month earnings CSI 300 vs. S&P 500, difference in 12-month price returns
80% 300%
200%
40%
150%
20%
100%
+1 Std. dev.: -1%
0%
50%
Average: -21%
-20%
0%
30% 0
20% -0.1
10%
-0.2
0%
-0.3
-10%
-0.4
MSCI China
Cons. Discr.
Tech.
Materials
Comm. Serv.
Energy
Real Estate
Utilities
Financials
Industrials
Cons. Staples
Health Care
-0.5
Sector -0.6
Weight (%) 3.2 16.9 6.0 3.3 5.8 2.6 100.0 3.7 5.5 19.3 6.2 27.4 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
Returns (%) 10-yr. ('13-'22) annualized Price-to-earnings*
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1Q '23 YTD '2023 Return (%) Volatility (%) 2021 2022 YTD '2023
Utilities Con. staples Con. staples Utilities Energy Telecom Telecom Con. staples IT Con. staples Con. staples IT
-15.6 61.8 70.4 39.7 12.7 34.9 45.5 14.3 31.1 49.8 35.9 47.6
Financials IT Health Care Energy Financials IT IT IT Telecom IT IT Con. staples
-19.3 57.6 51.3 38.1 -12.3 26.5 18.7 9.2 28.4 39.0 33.7 32.4
Con. staples Health Care Industrials Materials Con. staples Energy Energy Health Care Energy Health Care Health Care Health Care
-20.6 35.7 38.8 30.3 -13.4 7.5 12.6 9.2 28.1 35.3 26.2 26.4
Health Care Financials Con. disc. Industrials Utilities All A-Share Utilities Telecom Health Care Telecom Con. disc. Telecom
-25.8 34.8 34.2 25.4 -15.4 6.7 6.7 8.3 26.7 30.8 23.1 22.9
Energy Telecom Materials Telecom Con. disc. Materials All A-Share All A-Share Materials Con. disc. Industrials Con. disc.
-27.0 34.6 30.2 8.4 -17.0 4.3 5.2 7.2 25.1 28.3 19.7 21.5
All A-Share All A-Share All A-Share IT All A-Share Con. disc. Financials Industrials Industrials Industrials Utilities Utilities
-28.8 33.4 26.9 8.0 -18.9 3.9 3.5 6.8 24.3 26.0 19.4 19.2
Industrials Con. disc. IT All A-Share Materials Industrials Industrials Con. disc. Con. staples Utilities Telecom Industrials
-33.0 26.4 18.6 7.7 -19.6 3.6 2.6 6.6 23.6 23.9 17.7 16.7
Telecom Materials Utilities Con. disc. Health Care Con. staples Health Care Utilities Utilities All A-Share All A-Share All A-Share
-33.7 25.6 3.7 -3.1 -20.3 3.5 0.7 6.0 23.1 17.3 14.1 15.7
Con. disc. Industrials Financials Health Care Industrials Utilities Con. disc. Financials Con. disc. Materials Materials Materials
-34.0 18.8 3.2 -7.0 -21.4 2.2 0.5 5.5 23.0 15.1 13.6 14.6
Materials Energy Energy Con. staples Telecom Health Care Materials Materials Financials Energy Financials Energy
-34.6 11.6 -5.6 -7.9 -21.7 1.8 0.1 5.4 22.9 8.7 6.4 7.3
IT Utilities Telecom Financials IT Financials Con. staples Energy All A-Share Financials Energy Financials
-34.8 6.9 -6.5 -7.9 -33.1 -0.9 -3.3 -0.1 21.5 7.0 6.2 6.9
Growth vs. Value valuations* Growth vs. Value relative performance
MSCI China Growth fwd. P/E ratio/Value fwd. P/E ratio MSCI China Growth/Value performance, Jan. 2006 = 100
7.0 400
Growth
expensive Growth outperforming value
relative to value
350
6.0
300
5.0
200
150
2.0
100
Beijing 79 40%
30%
Shanghai 66 20%
China: 13%
10%
London 42 0%
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22
Shenzhen 33
China venture capital exits
USD billions, exit value Exit count
Chinese $350 350
Bengaluru 33 # of % of total Exit value ($B) Exit count
unicorns 291 $289
Unicorns valuation $300 300
by sector 264 259
Artificial
35 6% $250 250
Berlin 22 Intelligence
183
Semiconductor 28 5% $200 155 161 170 $168 200
141 $158
E-commerce 25 10% $150 121 150
Paris 22
$110
New Energy 22 5% $100 58 100
48 42 49 $76
Health Tech 22 3% 31 $55 $58 $58
$50 15 14 22 50
Guangzhou 22
$14 $17 $7 $22
$2 $9 $4 $2
$0 $1 0
0 50 100 150 200 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22
MSCI Emerging Markets Index: Inclusion of China A-Shares
EMEA EMEA
EMEA 12% 15% 13% Latin
Latin
America America
Taiwan
Latin 12% 9%
Taiwan 15%
Taiwan America
25% 11%
14%
Korea Asia ex-China,
Asia ex-China, Korea &
Korea & Taiwan 12%
Korea Taiwan
Korea 12% 18% 20%
Asia ex-China,
13% Korea & Taiwan
16% Foreign P-chips
P-chips 8% listed H-shares Foreign 14% H-
10% A-shares listed shares
Red-chips H-shares 8% 2%
P-chips 3% 7% A-shares
5% 9% 8% Red-chips 5%
4%
Red-
chips B-shares
2% 0%
2.0
20% 18%
2.0%
15% 13%
1.5
26%
1.5%
10% 21%
1.0 6%
1.0% 5% 3%
3%
1%
3% 3%
0.5 0.5% 0%
EM EM MSCI MSCI Global Global MSCI MSCI
GDP market EM EM GDP market ACWI ACWI
cap (current) (100% cap (current) (100%
0.0 0.0% A-share A-share
'14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 inclusion) inclusion)
Correlation between A-shares and global equities Efficient frontier
MSCI All Country World and China A-shares
MSCI MSCI MSCI
S&P 500 MSCI EM CSI 300 9.1%
ACWI EAFE China
85.0% AC World
+ 15.0% China A
S&P 500 1.00 9.0%
87.5% AC World
+ 12.5% China A
8.9%
MSCI ACWI 0.98 1.00 90.0% AC World
+ 10.0% China A
Annualized return
8.8%
92.5% AC World
MSCI EM 0.77 0.83 1.00 + 7.5% China A
8.7%
95.0% AC World
+ 5.0% China A
MSCI EAFE 0.89 0.94 0.87 1.00
8.6%
97.5% AC World
+ 2.5% China A
99% AC World
MSCI China 0.54 0.61 0.85 0.66 1.00 8.5% + 1% China A
100% AC World
(0.0% China A)
8.4%
CSI 300 0.39 0.44 0.58 0.44 0.72 1.00 16.3% 16.4% 16.5% 16.6% 16.7%
Volatility
Total net flows into China equities % of investors with no China A-share exposure
USD billions, active and passive, 4-week moving average
1.2 80%
73%
Cumulative flows since Oct. '22
1.0 low (USD billions) 70%
A-shares 3.13
0.8 Offshore 6.86
60%
0.6
50%
0.4
40%
0.2
30%
30%
0.0
20%
-0.2
10%
-0.4
0%
-0.6 All Country World benchmark Emerging Markets benchmark
Feb-22 May-22 Aug-22 Nov-22 Feb-23 investors investors
Number of new investor accounts
In millions
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
'16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
Funds raised in newly issued mutual funds and equity market movements
CNY billion
140 5,500
Equity fund flows CSI 300 Index Level
120 5,000
100
4,500
80
4,000
60
3,500
40
20 3,000
0 2,500
'15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
MSCI China MSCI Emerging Markets
U.S.
10%
Other
Europe 24%
China 3%
88% Japan
Asia ex-China 2% China
3% 27%
Asia ex-China
Other & Japan
3% 23%
Europe
U.S. 8%
3%
Japan
3% Other
U.S. 11%
Other 18% Asia ex-China & Japan
23% 5%
China Europe
Japan 15% U.S.
13%
9% 60%
Europe
23% China
Asia ex-China
& Japan 7%
13%
Bond market size in value and as % of GDP
$60 400%
Bond market outstanding 328% Bond market
(USD trillions)* (% of 2022 GDP)
$45 $39.8 300%
$2.3
$0 0%
U.S. China Japan Korea
0%
Debt Bonds Debt Bonds Debt Bonds Debt Bonds Debt Bonds Debt Bonds Debt Bonds Debt Bonds
Japan* UK China U.S. Korea Germany Brazil India
Debt by market Yields by market
% GDP, includes government and corporate debt Government and corporate bond indices
400% 10%
350%
8%
Japan
300%
6%
250% Mexico
China
200% 4%
UK China
Korea
U.S. U.S.
150% Korea
2%
Germany
UK
100%
Mexico
0%
50% Japan Germany
0% -2%
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22
China's three different bond markets China's onshore bond market by type of issuer
As of March 31, 2023 USD trillions, as of March 31, 2023
$3.0
Counted as
$2.72 government debt,
officially
$1.5
Offshore
foreign Value: USD$404 billion (the middle)
currency Average credit rating: A-
market** Average yield-to-maturity: 7.18%
$1.0
400
4.0%
10-year 200
0
3.5%
-200
'15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
3.0% Value of defaults in onshore market
CNY billion
250
2.5% 5-year State owned enterprises (SOE)
200
Privately owned enterprises (POE)
120
2.0% 150 19 33 52
1-year
100
3
1.5% 132 114
50 118 102
6 5 61
1 7 20 15
20 34
0
1.0% ’14 ‘15 ’16 ‘17 ’18 ‘19 ’20 ‘21 ’22 YTD
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '23
2 0 18 - 2 0 2 2
Chinese offshore corporate credit spreads 2 0 18 2 0 19 2020 2021 2022 Y TD
Ann.
Basis points, daily
China Re a l
3,000 350 China Agg Esta te HY China Agg China G ovt. China G ovt. China IG China Agg
High yield Investment grade 3.5% 14 . 9 % 9.8% 8.7% - 5.2% 3.6% 4.0%
China Re a l
Esta te HY China Agg China IG China HY China HY China HY China HY
- 3 . 1% 3.4% 6.6% - 26.3% - 22.5% - 1. 9 % - 6.6%
500 100
10% 14%
16%
9% 10% 7% 5%
0%
Global bond universe Global aggregate Local EMD sovereigns USD EMD corporates USD EMD sovereigns
Return and volatility of government bonds Return of Chinese bonds versus Asia benchmarks
Annualized total return and volatility, May 2013 – Apr. 2023 Annualized total return, May 2018 – Apr. 2023
6.0% 6.0%
Annualized return China
Annualized volatility Asia benchmark
5.0%
5.0% 5.0% 4.8%
4.4% 4.5%
4.0%
4.0% 4.0%
2.4%
2.0% 2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
1.0% 1.0%
0.6%
0.5%
0.0% 0.0%
Chinese Central Chinese Central U.S. Treasuries Corporate Credit Corporate Credit Government Debt
Gov. Bonds (CNY) Gov. Bonds (USD) (USD) (Local ccy) (Local ccy)
Correlation between Chinese and global government bonds
Total return index in USD*, 12-month rolling correlations of monthly returns
1.00
0.80
0.60
Average: 0.33
0.40
0.20
0.00
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Copyright 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved
Prepared by: David Kelly, Marcella Chow, Gabriela Santos, Chaoping Zhu, Adrian Tong, Jennifer Qiu, Brandon Hall, Kathleen Clum, and Mary Park Durham.
Unless otherwise stated, all data are as of April 30, 2023 or most recently available.
Guide to China
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