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Title: Navigating the Challenges of Writing a Trade Deficit Research Paper

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However, the opposite prediction holds for developing countries. At the same time that the average
price in imported crude oil dropped sharply, the quantity of imported crude oil fell by 1.4%. As a
result of this drop in crude oil prices and relatively stable quantity of imports, crude oil imports fell
from accounting for more than 40% on average of the annual U.S. merchandise trade deficit in 2012
to about 10% on average of the annual U.S. trade deficit in 2015. 11. For the United States, a net
capital (savings) inflow also leads to a like-sized net inflow of foreign goods—a trade deficit.
Remarks at the 35th Annual Conference on Bank Structure and Competition of the Federal Reserve
Bank of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois. But in modern times when international trade has a huge impact
on the economy of a country, the most important role of tariffs is for protection purpose. When the
dust settled those arguing that the two deficits should move together seemed to have carried the day,
although doubters remained. The purpose of protective tariff is more economic than financial. When
the structural budget deficit shrinks, the government adds to the national saving supplied by
households and businesses and interest rates fall. As described previously, the marginal product
added by each additional worker in a sector is declining, so wages in a sector must also be declining
as more and more workers move to that sector. When Japan is accumulating foreign exchange at a
time the yen is strengthening, it also is pursuing a policy of weakening the yen. This report will be
updated as major events warrant. But in practice there might be trade-offs with other objectives such
as a possible widening of inequality and risks of structural unemployment as government policies
prioritize expansion in emerging industries. Large budget deficits from 1981 to 1986 contributed to a
fall of the national saving rate in that period; a swing to sizable budget surpluses from 1997 to 2000
increased the national saving rate in that period; and a return to budget deficits from 2001 to 2007
helped push the national saving rate down in that period. 17 Recent Saving-Investment Trends in the
United States. Because industrialized countries such as the United States have high levels of
productivity across all sectors, a less technologically advanced developing country would have no
hope of competing in a free trade environment if absolute productivity levels were all that mattered.
The US trade deficits are bad for the overall economy of the country. Goods are tangible items in the
form of raw materials, intermediate products, and final products. Reserve Board staff's
macroeconomic model, to which I alluded earlier. The. While foreign investors likely expect positive
returns from their dollar-denominated assets, the returns on most of the assets in the international
investment position, except for bonds, are not guaranteed and foreign investors stand to gain or lose
on them similar to the way U.S. domestic investors gain or lose. They often acquire dollars for
purposes other than to purchase U.S. exports or invest in the U.S. market. There is little evidence that
macroeconomic variables have consistent strong effects on exchange rates (except during
extraordinary circumstances such as hyperinflations). As more detailed data on firm level transactions
have become available, and as increased computing power has allowed for the analysis of these
detailed microdata, the focus of both empirical and theoretical research has moved toward including
firm-level heterogeneity. The theory of comparative advantage and traditional trade policy analysis
conclude that under certain idealized conditions, a country maximizes its well-being by specializing
in producing those goods and services in which it has a comparative advantage and importing those
in which other nations have advantage. However, given the large-scale federal borrowing likely to
occur over the medium term, it seems unlikely that the federal budget can any time soon play a major
role in raising national saving and reducing the trade deficit. 31. Recently, some basic economic
theory has been called into question as empirical studies fail to validate long accepted theoretical
linkages. As per the population, America has approximately 318 million people where 82% of the
population lives in the urban areas. These issues relating to the performance of the United States
economy are a matter of interest to the rest of the world. A revenue tariff may be on export or
import, depending on the trade policy of the government. They have doggedly fended off speculators
who have bet on a depreciation. Such actions will affect the level of trade and economic efficiency,
but will not change the balance of trade. In each instance, action aimed at altering one side of the
trade equation tends to induce effects via the exchange rate that will cause the other side of the
equation to change in the same direction and by an equal amount. 26. Paul Krugman developed a
model in which imperfect competition can lead to gains from trade, even between identical countries.
We are left with the demand effects — an increase in exports stimulates the domestic economy which
then draws in more 19 Frankel, Jeffrey A. Business Economics, April 1977, vol. 32. P. 14-19. See
also: CRS Report 98-508 E, U.S. Trade Balance: An Analysis of Recent Trends and Policy Options,
by (name redacted). In standard cost-benefit analysis, this borrowing would be justified if it results
in enough consumption being made available in the future to offset borrowing costs (interest rates).
National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 4503, October 1993. 21 Frankel, Jeffrey
A. These assets are broadly divided into official and private investments, reflecting transactions by
governments among themselves and transactions among the public. The second accounting identity is
the necessary condition for the economy's internal balance. According to one analyst, the
continuation of the current account deficit and strong dollar — and, hence, of the sequence of happy
non-inflationary years with. If a factor of production is relatively scarce, then it will be relatively
costly, translating into a relatively higher price for the good that uses the scarce factor in its
production. A national currency weakens when the inflow of capital in the country cannot fully
finance a current account deficit, that is, the supply of financing from the capital account is low
(Roubini 2005). It is intended to point out some of the pitfalls of the standard interpretations of the
trade deficit. The marginal propensity to save is 0.25. However, the. Although deviations from full
employment can occur during periods of recession, a well-run monetary policy will minimize the
incidence and duration of such episodes and in an expanding economy keep the total level of
employment high in most years with or without trade deficits. Indeed, economists generally argue
that it is this interplay between the demand for and the supply of credit in the economy, rather than
the flow of manufactured goods and services, that drives the broad inflows and outflows of capital
and serves as the major factor in determining the international exchange value of the dollar and,
therefore, the overall size of the nation's trade deficit or surplus. In a customs union, countries
impose lower tariffs among member countries and harmonize common trade policies with non-
member countries (Carbaugh 273). In other words, countries trade based on comparative advantage,
and the source of that comparative advantage is relative factor endowments interacted with relative
factor intensities. This study did not, however, attempt to estimate net job gains foregone arising
from increased imports from Canada and Mexico because there can be no net job losses as long as
U.S. output and employment continue to rise. In 2005, the us dollar appreciated despite all dooming
predictions. For example, monetary policy, by raising domestic interest rates and slowing economic
activity, can lower the rate of domestic investment, reduce the saving-investment gap, and decrease
the trade deficit. (At the extreme, a recession could dramatically reduce the trade deficit as seen in
2008 and 2009.) As observed earlier, decreasing the rate of domestic investment will have a negative
effect on economic growth and is not generally considered a desirable economic outcome. This was
the reason that the U.S. current account was near balance during the 1950s and 1960s. Sometimes
compound tariff rates are also preferred by the countries. The current trend is to view exchange rates
in terms of microeconomic analysis — not unlike that used to analyze stock prices — but this
approach is still primarily a research agenda. This also makes united states attractive for both local
and foreign investors as a result of increased productivity. These trade deficits have not hampered
the overall creation of jobs. Exchange rates and the role they play in equilibrating imbalances in trade
flows among nations are a key to macroeconomic trade analysis. Foreign private net purchases of
U.S. Treasury securities in 2015 fell by one-third from those in 2014, but foreign private purchases of
U.S. equities increased by 20% in 2015 compared with 2014. On the other hand, the industry with
the relatively abundant specific factor will have a relatively lower price. By 2025, the U.S will
comprise of 19% of individuals older than 65 years. Suppose a country is relatively well endowed
with high-skilled labor. An important component of foreign official holdings in the United States is
the acquisitions of U.S. Treasury securities by foreign governments. Its constitution was drafted in
1787, which led to the establishment of a federal system of governance.
In other words, in today's global economy with large and fluid trade in goods and assets, countries
with imbalances between domestic saving and investment will likely experience a compensating
inflow or outflow of financial capital (i.e., saving), that will induce a current account deficit or
surplus. 4 The Adjustment Mechanisms. These issues relating to the performance of the United States
economy are a matter of interest to the rest of the world. In other words, does it matter whether the
deficit is caused by lower taxes, increased defense spending, more job-training programs, and so on.
This may also because by lack of reforms in its fiscal policies. Also, whether macroeconomic policy
affects primarily saving or investment could be a matter of concern because of the potential
differential effect on long-term growth. The opportunity cost of producing a computer in the United
States is two bushels of corn, and the opportunity cost of producing a bushel of corn in the United
States is one half of a computer. Rising prospects for profit because of boom conditions in the U.S.
economy or an increase in productivity could increase domestic investment relative to GDP, and
could attract foreign capital even as the federal budget moves toward balance or into surplus.
However, most Latin American countries that liberalized their trade policies in the 1980s saw their
wage gaps widen. Macroeconomic Policy Responses: Domestic and Foreign. The debts owned by
foreign investors represent claims on assets, rather than loans where payments on the principal and
interest are specified according to a fixed schedule and where failure to meet the repayment
schedule can result in the loans being called in and made payable in full. As a result, each transaction
entered as a credit must have a corresponding debit and vice versa. This outflow stems from the
profits or interest generated by the assets and represents a clear outflow of capital from the economy
that otherwise would not occur if the assets were owned by U.S. investors. These capital outflows
represent the most tangible cost to the economy of the present mix of economic policies in which
foreign capital inflows are needed to fill the gap between the demand for capital in the economy and
the domestic supply of capital. In this sense, the capital borrowing from abroad seems to have been
used to finance productivity-enhancing investments. Note that under autarky, in the United States,
each additional computer the Americans want to consume requires them to give up 2 bushels of corn.
And this increased inflow of foreign capital (saving) made possible the additional investment in the
United States. This is the opposite of what happened in the last half of the 1990s, when the budget
deficit fell as a fraction of gross domestic product (GDP) and the trade deficit rose sharply as a
fraction of GDP. The comparative advantag 7 e approach also does not account for trade barriers,
exchange rate manipulation, or business subsidies by individual countries that may alter the
competitiveness of certain firms. A large body of economic literature has been developed to study
these deviations from the pure theory of international trade. Opponents contend that NAFTA would
accelerate an already-existing flow of jobs and business from the u. A rise in direct taxes leads to less
disposable income and ought to lead to a reduction in consumer demand for imported goods and
services. Since the market supply curve gives all combinations of this desired price and quantity.
This expected depreciation makes the relative return on dollar assets even lower than what is
indicated by the nominal interest rate differential. That is, if tariffs are imposed they should fall on
consumption and not capital goods. But that observation is based more on experience 30 than on
theory. However, as a CRS report may include copyrighted images or material from a third party,
you may need to obtain permission of the copyright holder if you wish to copy or otherwise use
copyrighted material. From this experience it is clear that international capital flows, which drive the
net balance of trade, do not depend solely on movements in the budget deficit. A fall in the external
value of sterling makes exports more competitive when priced in foreign currencies. In addition, the
effects of recession have left limited room for further fiscal expansion and small ability to lower the
household saving rate. He finds strong evidence that trade is associated with increasing income
inequality in developed countries, but the impact on developing countries is mixed. Therefore,
economic analysis indicates that the ultimate cost of the trade barrier is not a transfer of well-being
between sectors, but a permanent net loss to the whole economy arising from the barrier's distortion
toward the less efficient use of the economy's scarce resources. We say that the United States has the
comparative advantage in computers, and Mexico has the comparative advantage in corn.
As a result, there has been increasing interest from various stakeholders regarding the growing
United States current account deficit. Also, a closer look at the sources of the increase in China's
domestic saving over the last decade reveals that the principal contributor to that growth was
Chinese companies, not households. This outflow stems from the profits or interest generated by the
assets and represents a clear outflow of capital from the economy that otherwise would not occur if
the assets were owned by U.S. investors. These capital outflows represent the most tangible cost to
the economy of the present mix of economic policies in which foreign capital inflows are needed to
fill the gap between the demand for capital in the economy and the domestic supply of capital. At the
same time, protests of World Trade Organization meetings and labor union opposition to free trade
agreements continue to make headlines. The primary channel through which trade impacts welfare is
through a country’s terms of trade, which is defined as the price of the country’s exports divided by
the price of its imports. According to the Department of the Treasury, the drop in net foreign
purchases of U.S. securities reflects adjustments by private investors in their portfolios by reducing
their holdings of U.S. corporate stocks and U.S. Treasury securities and increasing their net purchases
of corporate bonds and the bonds of U.S. government agencies other than Treasury securities.
Economic theory is evolving with respect to the international trade side of the U.S. economy and the
relevant policy implications. Within a given industry, there may be a number of different firms, each
of which may have different levels of productivity or ways of organizing production. As a result the
government may decide to impose a tariff on the import of the product. For the United States, such
derivatives total more than three times as much as all U.S. bonds, equities, and bank assets. States,
for example, have likely been instrumental in reducing home bias and. This would increase the price
and reduce the array of goods available to the consumer from what they would otherwise be. The
budget deficit is the challenge to address for the US since the trade deficit in the US will happen due
to budget deficit (Mankiw, 2012). If, on balance, foreign investors see further investment in the
United States as a more risky undertaking, other factors equal, the capital inflow will ebb and bring
the trade deficit down with it. This type of international asset transaction allows a more global
utilization of the world's saving, a more efficient allocation of investment spending across nations,
and a preferred distribution of spending over time. Consider, for instance, an inflow of capital which
is usually considered to cause an offsetting increase in a country’s trade deficit. They depend not
only on economic conditions in the United States, but on similar conditions and decisions made
abroad. This is because the society has greater flexibility and the freedom to react fast to new
opportunities. Higher economic activity would induce more imports. Based on the analysis of U.S,
the most realistic business idea includes a flexible business in that it is able to adapt to changes in the
customer preferences so as to remain profitable such as a restaurant that mostly deals with fast foods.
Address at the 11 th Conference of the International Federation of Business Economists, Vancouver,
Canada. Trade data indicate that a rising share of U.S. imports has been of capital goods that should
increase U.S. productivity and growth in the future. For example, the if the dollar yen exchange rate
is 100 yen per dollar, a person can exchange one dollar for 100 yen. Some observers refer to the net
of this investment position (or the difference between the value of U.S.-owned assets abroad and the
value of foreign-owned assets in the United States) as a debt, or indicate that the United States is a
net debtor nation, because the value of foreign-owned assets in the United States is greater than the
value of U.S.-owned assets abroad. An implication 16 of this lack of response of domestic prices to
exchange rate changes is that a currency depreciation will not necessarily eliminate a nation’s trade
deficit, although empirical 17 studies indicate that for most countries over the long run, a real
depreciation (adjusting for domestic inflation) is likely to improve a nation’s current account balance
while a real appreciation is likely to worsen it. US Congress House of Representatives. (2010). The
US Trade Deficit: Are We Trading Our Future. On the other hand, if the relative rate of return from
investment in U.S. assets grows more attractive, the net capital inflow could expand and bring the
trade deficit up with it. This was an increment of approximately 4.6 billion dollars from October the
same year. I like the U.S. productivity surge story and find it compelling. However, I. Higher interest
rates, however, cause (continued.).

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