Lecture 5

Confidence intervals
 Review and Preview
 Sampling
 The Central Limit Theorem
 Estimating a Population Proportion
 Estimating a Population Mean
 Estimating a Population Standard Deviation or
Variance

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 Probability Distributions
 Discrete & continuous
 Uniform distribution
 Normal distribution

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 Review

• Continuous random variables

• Normal distributions
1  x 
2
  
2  
e
f ( x) 
 2

Formula 1

Distribution determined by
fixed values of mean and
Figure 1 standard deviation
 In previous sessions, we used descriptive
statistics when we summarized data using
tools such as graphs and statistics such as
the mean and standard deviation.
 We also looked at critical values:
◦ zα denotes the z score with an area of α to its
right.
◦ If α = 0.025, the critical value is z0.025 = 1.96.
That is, the critical value z0.025 = 1.96 has an area
of 0.025 to its right.

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 The stress will now be on inferential statistics.
 The two major activities of inferential statistics
are
◦ (1) to use sample data to estimate values of a population
parameters, and
◦ (2) to test hypotheses or claims made about population
parameters.
 Methods for estimating values of these important
population parameters: proportions, means, and
standard deviation / variances will be introduced.
 Methods for determining sample sizes necessary
to estimate those parameters will also be
presented.

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 Review and Preview
 Sampling
 The Central Limit Theorem
 Estimating a Population Proportion
 Estimating a Population Mean
 Estimating a Population Standard Deviation or
Variance

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 The sampling frame is the list of subjects in
the population from which the sample is
taken.
 Ideally, the sampling frame lists the entire
population of interest. In practice, it is usually
hard to identify every subject in the
population.
 Once you have a sampling frame, you need to
specify a method for selecting subjects from
it. The method used is called the sampling
design.

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 A simple random sample of n subjects from a
population is one in which each possible
sample of that size has the same chance of
being selected.
 A simple random sample is often just called a
random sample. The “simple” adjective
distinguishes this type of sampling from
more complex random sampling designs
presented later.

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 To select a simple random sample:
◦ Number the subjects in the sampling frame.
◦ Generate a set of those numbers randomly.
◦ Sample the subjects whose numbers were
generated.

◦ In practice, technology is used to generate the

sample. This could be an app or a statistical
program.

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 For any survey, it is difficult to get a good
sampling frame since a list of all adults in a
population typically does not exist. So, it is
necessary to pick a place where almost all people
can be found—a person’s place of residence.

 Once we identify the desired sample for a survey,

how do we contact the people to collect the data?
◦ Personal interview
◦ Telephone interview
◦ Self-administered questionnaire

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 Bias: When results from the sample are not
representative of the population, they are
said to exhibit bias.

 Undercoverage – having a sampling frame

that lacks representation from parts of the
population.

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 Sampling bias occurs from using nonrandom samples or
 having undercoverage.
 Nonresponse bias occurs when some sampled subjects
 cannot be reached or refuse to participate or fail to answer
 some questions.
 Response bias occurs when the subject gives an incorrect
 response (perhaps lying) or the way the interviewer asks the
 questions (or wording of a question in print) is confusing or
 misleading.

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 How the sample is obtained can also result in
bias.

 Convenience Samples: a type of survey
sample that is easy to obtain relatively
cheaply.
◦ Unlikely to be representative of the population
◦ Often severe biases result from such a sample.
◦ Results apply ONLY to the observed subjects.

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 Volunteer Sample: most common type of
convenience sample

◦ Subjects volunteer for the sample.

◦ Volunteers do not tend to be representative of the
entire population.

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 Many Internet surveys have thousands of
respondents, but a volunteer sample of
thousands is not as good as a random
sample, even if that random sample is much
smaller.

 We are almost always better off with a simple

random sample of 100 people than with a
volunteer sample of thousands of people.

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 Identify the population of all subjects of interest.
 Construct a sampling frame which attempts to list all
subjects in the population.
 Use a random sampling design to select n subjects from
the sampling frame.
 Be cautious about sampling bias due to nonrandom
samples (such as volunteer samples) and sample
undercoverage, response bias from subjects not giving
their true response or from poorly worded questions, and
nonresponse bias from refusal of subjects to participate.

 We can make inferences about the population of interest

when sample surveys that use random sampling are
employed.

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Simple random sampling gives every possible
sample the same chance of selection. In practice,
more complex random sampling designs are
often easier to implement or are more efficient,
requiring a smaller sampling size for the same
precision.

◦ Simple random sampling

◦ Cluster random sampling
◦ Stratified random sampling

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Cluster Random Sample

Steps
◦ Divide the population into a large number of
clusters, such as city blocks.

◦ Select a simple random sample of the clusters.

◦ Use the subjects in those clusters as the sample.

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SUMMARY: Advantages and Disadvantages of a
Cluster Random Sample

Cluster random sampling is a preferable sampling

design if
 A reliable sampling frame is not available, or
 The cost of selecting a simple random sample is
excessive.

The disadvantages are:

 We usually require a larger sample size with
cluster sampling for the same level of precision.
 Selecting a small number of clusters might result
in a sample that is more homogeneous than the
population.

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Stratified Random Sample

Steps
◦ Divide the population into separate groups, called
strata, based on some attribute or characteristic
about the subjects.

◦ Select a simple random sample from each stratum.

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 SUMMARY: Advantages and Disadvantages of a
Stratified Random Sample

Stratified Random Sampling has the

 Advantage that you can include in your sample

enough subjects in each group (stratum) you
want to evaluate.

 Disadvantage that you must have a sampling

frame and know the stratum into which each
subject belongs.

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Figure 4.2 Ways of Randomly
Sampling 40 Students. The
figure is a schematic for a
simple random sample of 16
students, a cluster random
sample of 4 clusters of 4
students who live together, and
a stratified random sample of 4
students from each class
(Fresh., Soph., Jnr., Snr.).
Question: What’s the
difference between clustering
and stratifying? The Xs
represent an observation
selected, whereas the *s
represent observations that
were not selected as part of
the sample.

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 Comparing Random Sampling Methods

Table: Comparison of different random sampling methods. A good sampling design

ensures that each subject in a population has an opportunity to be selected. The design
should incorporate randomness. Table 4.1 summarizes the random sampling methods we’ve
presented.

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 Review and Preview
 Sampling
 The Central Limit Theorem
 Estimating a Population Proportion
 Estimating a Population Mean
 Estimating a Population Standard Deviation or
Variance

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 The Central Limit Theorem tells us that for a
population with any distribution, the
distribution of the sample means approaches
a normal distribution as the sample size
increases.
 The procedure in this section forms the
foundation for estimating population
parameters and hypothesis testing.

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 Given:
 1. The random variable x has a distribution (which
may or may not be normal) with mean μ and standard
deviation σ.
 2. Simple random samples all of size n are selected
from the population. (The samples are selected so
that all possible samples of the same size n have the
same chance of being selected.)
 Conclusions:
 1. The distribution of sample x̄ will, as the sample
size increases, approach a normal distribution.
 2. The mean of the sample means is the population
mean μ.
 3. The standard deviation of all sample means is
σ/n.
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 1. For samples of size n larger than 30, the
distribution of the sample means can be
approximated reasonably well by a normal
distribution. The approximation becomes
closer to a normal distribution as the sample
size n becomes larger.
 2. If the original population is normally
distributed, then for any sample size n, the
sample means will be normally distributed
(not just the values of n larger than 30).

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 The mean of the sample means

x  
 The standard deviation of sample mean


x 

n
 (often called the standard error of the mean)

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Example - Normal Distribution

As we proceed from
n = 1 to n = 50, we
see that the
distribution of
sample means is
approaching the
shape of a normal
distribution.

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Example - Uniform Distribution

As we proceed from
n = 1 to n = 50, we
see that the
distribution of
sample means is
approaching the
shape of a normal
distribution.

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 Example - U-Shaped Distribution

As we proceed from
n = 1 to n = 50, we
see that the
distribution of
sample means is
approaching the
shape of a normal
distribution.

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 As the sample size increases, the sampling
distribution of sample means approaches a
normal distribution.

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 Suppose an elevator has a maximum capacity of
16 passengers with a total weight of 2500 lb.
Assuming a worst case scenario in which the
passengers are all male, what are the chances the
elevator is overloaded?
Assume male weights follow a normal
distribution with a mean of 182.9 lb and a
standard deviation of 40.8 lb.
a. Find the probability that 1 randomly selected
male has a weight greater than 156.25 lb.
b. Find the probability that a sample of 16 males
have a mean weight greater than 156.25 lb
(which puts the total weight at 2500 lb,
exceeding the maximum capacity).

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 a. Find the probability that 1 randomly
selected male has a weight greater than
156.25 lb.
Using the methods presented earlier, we
can convert to a z score and use our table.
x 156.25  182.9
z   0.65
 40.8

 The area to the

right is 0.7422.

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 b. Find the probability that a sample of 16 males
have a mean weight greater than 156.25 lb.
Since the distribution of male weights is assumed
to be normal, the sample mean will also be
normal.
 x   x  182.9
 40.8
x  x   10.2
n 16

Converting to z:
156.25  182.9
z  2.61
10.2

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 b. Find the probability that a sample of 16
males have a mean weight greater than
156.25 lb.
 While there is 0.7432 probability that any
given male will weigh more than 156.25 lb,
there is a 0.9955 probability that the sample
of 16 males will have a mean weight of
156.25 lb or greater.
 If the elevator is filled to capacity with all
males, there is a very good chance the safe
weight capacity of 2500 lb. will be exceeded.

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 When sampling without replacement and the
sample size n is greater than 5% of the finite
population of size N (that is, n > 0.05N),
adjust the standard deviation of sample
means by multiplying it by the finite
population correction factor:
 N n
x 
n N 1

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 Review and Preview
 Sampling
 The Central Limit Theorem
 Estimating a Population Proportion
 Estimating a Population Mean
 Estimating a Population Standard Deviation or
Variance

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 Methods for using a sample proportion to estimate
the value of a population proportion.
 The sample proportion is the best point estimate of
the population proportion.
 We can use a sample proportion to construct a
confidence interval to estimate the true value of a
population proportion, and we should know how to
interpret such confidence intervals.
 We should know how to find the sample size
necessary to estimate a population proportion.

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 A point estimate is a single value (or point)
used to approximate a population
parameter.
 The sample proportion p̑ is the best point
estimate of the population proportion p.
 Example
◦ A survey of 1007 adults found that 85% of them
know what Twitter is.
◦ The best point estimate of p, the population
proportion, is the sample proportion:
 p̑ = 0.85

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 A confidence interval CI (or interval estimate) is a
range (or an interval) of values used to estimate the
true value of a population parameter.
 A confidence level is the probability 1–α (often
expressed as the equivalent percentage value) that
the confidence interval actually does contain the
population parameter, assuming that the
estimation process is repeated a large number of
times. (The confidence level is also called degree
of confidence, or the confidence coefficient.)
 Most common choices are 90%, 95%, or 99%.
◦ (α = 0.10), (α = 0.05), (α = 0.01)

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 We must be careful to interpret confidence intervals
correctly. There is a correct interpretation and many
different and creative incorrect interpretations of the
confidence interval 0.828 < p < 0.872.
 We are 95% confident that the interval from 0.828 to
0.872 actually does contain the true value of the
population proportion p.
◦ This means that if we were to select many different samples
of size 1007 and construct the corresponding confidence
intervals, 95% of them would actually contain the value of
the population proportion p.
 Note that in this correct interpretation, the level of
95% refers to the success rate of the process being
used to estimate the proportion.

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 Know the correct interpretation of a
confidence interval.
◦ Confidence intervals can be used
informally to compare different data sets,
but the overlapping of confidence
intervals should not be used for making
formal and final conclusions about
equality of proportions.

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 A confidence interval can be used to test
some claim made about a population
proportion p.
 For the time being, we do not yet use a
formal method of hypothesis testing, so we
simply generate a confidence interval and
make an informal judgment based on the
result.

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 A critical value is the number on the
borderline separating sample statistics
that are likely to occur from those that
are unlikely to occur.
 The number zα/2 is a critical value that
is a z score with the property that it
separates an area of α/2 in the right
tail of the standard normal
distribution.

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 A standard z score can be used to distinguish
between sample statistics that are likely to
occur and those that are unlikely to occur.
 Such a z score is called a critical value.
 Critical values are based on the following
observations:
◦ Under certain conditions, the sampling distribution
of sample proportions can be approximated by a
normal distribution.
◦ A z score associated with a sample proportion has a
probability of α/2 of falling in the right tail.

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 The z score separating the right-tail region is
commonly denoted by zα/2 and is referred to
as a critical value because it is on the
borderline separating z scores from sample
proportions that are likely to occur from
those that are unlikely to occur.

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Critical Values

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Confidence Level α Critical Value, zα/2
90% 0.10 1.645
95% 0.05 1.96
99% 0.01 2.575

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 When data from a simple random sample are
used to estimate a population proportion p,
the margin of error, denoted by E, is the
maximum likely difference (with probability
1–α, such as 0.95) between the observed
proportion p̑ and the true value of the
population proportion p.

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 The margin of error E is also called the
maximum error of the estimate and can be
found by multiplying the critical value and the
standard deviation of the sample proportions:

ˆˆ
pq
E  z 2
n
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 p = population proportion
 p̑ = sample proportion
 n = number of sample values
 E = margin of error
 zα/2 = z score separating an area of α/2 in
the right tail of the standard normal
distribution.

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 1. The sample is a simple random sample.
 2. The conditions for the binomial
distribution are satisfied: there is a fixed
number of trials, the trials are independent,
there are two categories of outcomes, and
the probabilities remain constant for each
trial.
 3. There are at least 5 successes and 5
failures.

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 ˆˆ
pq
where E  z 2
n
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1. Verify that the required assumptions are
satisfied.
The sample is a simple random sample, the
conditions for the binomial distribution are
satisfied, and the normal distribution can be used
to approximate the distribution of sample
proportions because np ≥ 5, and nq ≥ 5 are both
satisfied.
2. Refer to Table and find the critical value zα/2
that corresponds to the desired confidence
level.
3. Evaluate the margin of error E  z 2 pq ˆˆ n

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 4. Using the value of the calculated
margin of error E and the value of the
sample proportion, p̑, find the values
of p̑-E and p̑+E. Substitute those
values in the general format for the
confidence interval: p̑-E <p < p̑+E
 5. Round the resulting confidence
interval limits to three significant
digits.

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 A poll of 1007 randomly selected adults showed that
85% of respondents know what Twitter is. The
sample results are n = 1007 and p̑ = 0.85
 a. Find the margin of error E that corresponds to a
95% confidence level.
 b. Find the 95% confidence interval estimate of the
population proportion p.
 c. Based on the results, can we safely conclude that
more than 75% of adults know what Twitter is?
 d. Assuming that you are a newspaper reporter,
write a brief statement that accurately describes the
results and includes all of the relevant information.

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 Requirement check: simple random sample;
fixed number of trials, 1007; trials are
independent; two outcomes per trial;
probability remains constant. Note: number
of successes and failures are both at least 5.
 a) Use the formula to find the margin of
error.

E  z 2
ˆˆ
pq
 1.96
 0.85 0.15
n 1007
E  0.0220545
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 b) The 95% confidence
interval:
 p̑-E <p < p̑+E
 0.85 – 0.0220545 < p < 0.85 + 0.0220545
 0.828 < p < 0.872

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 (c) Based on the confidence interval
obtained in part (b), it does appear
that more than 75% of adults know
what Twitter is.
 Because the limits of 0.828 and 0.872
are likely to contain the true
population proportion, it appears that
the population proportion is a value
greater than 0.75.

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 (d) Here is one statement that summarizes
the results:
 85% of adults know what Twitter is. That
percentage is based on 1007 randomly
selected adults.
 In theory, in 95% of such polls, the
percentage should differ by no more than 2.2
percentage points in either direction from the
percentage that would be found by
interviewing all adults.

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 When analyzing polls consider:
 1. The sample should be a simple random
sample, not an inappropriate sample (such as a
voluntary response sample).
 2. The confidence level should be provided. It is
often 95%, but media reports often neglect to
identify it.
 3. The sample size should be provided. It is
usually provided by the media, but not always.
 4. Except for relatively rare cases, the quality of
the poll results depends on the sampling method
and the size of the sample, but the size of the
population is usually not a factor.

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 Misconception: poll results are unreliable if
the sample size is a small percentage of the
population size.
 The population size is usually not a factor in
determining the reliability of a poll.
 Suppose we want to collect sample data in
order to estimate some population
proportion.
◦ The question is how many sample items must be
obtained?

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(solve for n by algebra)

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When an estimate of p̑ is known,
n to be rounded up to the next whole number:

When no estimate of p̑̑ is known,

we take the maximum value for p̑q̑: 0.25

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 Many companies are interested in knowing the
percentage of adults who buy clothing online.
 How many adults must be surveyed in order to
be 95% confident that the sample percentage is
in error by no more than three percentage points,
in the following cases:
 a. A recent result shows that 66% of adults buy
clothing online.
 b. Assume that we have no prior information
suggesting a possible value of the proportion.

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 Example - Continued
a) Use pˆ  0.66 and qˆ  1  pˆ  0.34
  0.05 so z 2  1.96
E  0.03
To be 95% confident that
 z 
2
 2
ˆˆ
pq our sample percentage is
n within three percentage
E2 points of the true
percentage for all adults,
1.96   0.66  0.34 
2
we should obtain a simple
 random sample of 958
 0.03 
2
adults.

 957.839
 958
SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 68
 Example - Continued
b) Use   0.05 so z 2  1.96
E  0.03

To be 95% confident
that our sample
 z 
2
 2  0.25 percentage is within
n
E2 three percentage points
of the true percentage
1.96   0.25
2

 for all adults, we should

 0.03  obtain a simple random
2

sample of 1068 adults.

 1067.1111
 1068
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Point estimate of :
=
(upper confidence limit) + (lower confidence limit)
2

Margin of Error:
= (upper confidence limit) — (lower confidence limit)

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 Review and Preview
 Sampling
 The Central Limit Theorem
 Estimating a Population Proportion
 Estimating a Population Mean
 Estimating a Population Standard Deviation or
Variance

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 Methods for using the sample mean to make an
inference about the value of the corresponding
population mean.
 The sample mean x̄ is the best point estimate of
the population mean μ.
 How to use sample data to construct a
confidence interval for estimating the value of a
population mean, and how to interpret such
confidence intervals.
 Develop the ability to determine the sample size
necessary to estimate a population mean.

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 The procedure we use has a requirement
that the population is normally distributed
or the sample size is greater than 30.

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where tα/2 has n – 1 degrees of freedom.

Table attached lists values for tα/2.

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 Student t Distribution
If the distribution of a population is essentially
normal, then the distribution of

is a Student t Distribution for all samples of

size n. It is often referred to as a t
distribution and is used to find critical values
denoted by tα/2.
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 The number of degrees of freedom for a
collection of sample data is the number of
sample values that can vary after certain
restrictions have been imposed on all data
values.
 The degree of freedom is often abbreviated
df.
 degrees of freedom = n – 1 for the methods
we will study here.

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μ = population mean
x̄ = sample mean
s = sample standard deviation
n = number of sample values
E = margin of error
tα/2 = critical t value separating an area of α/2 in the
right tail of the t distribution
 Smaller samples will have means that are likely to
vary more. The greater variation is accounted for by
the t distribution.

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 where df = n – 1

tα/2 found in Table

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 1. Verify that the requirements are satisfied.
 2. Using n – 1 degrees of freedom, refer to t-
Table or use technology to find the critical
value tα/2 that corresponds to the desired
confidence level.
 3. Evaluate the margin of error E= tα/2.s/n
 4. Find the values of x̄-E and x̄+E. Substitute
those values in the general format for the
confidence interval: x̄-E < μ <x̄+E.
 5. Round the resulting confidence interval
limits.

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 A common claim is that garlic lowers cholesterol levels.
In a test of the effectiveness of garlic, 49 subjects were
treated with doses of raw garlic, and their cholesterol
levels were measured before and after the treatment.
 The changes in their levels of LDL cholesterol (in
mg/dL) have a mean of 0.4 and a standard deviation of
21.0.
 Use the sample statistics of n = 49, x̄= 0.4, and s =
21.0 to construct a 95% confidence interval estimate of
the mean net change in LDL cholesterol after the garlic
treatment.
 What does the confidence interval suggest about the
effectiveness of garlic in reducing LDL cholesterol?

SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 80

 Requirements are satisfied: simple random sample
and n = 49 (i.e., n > 30).
 95% implies α = 0.05.
With n = 49, the df = 49 – 1 = 48
 Closest df is 50, two tails, so tα/2 = 2.009
 Using tα/2 = 2.009, s = 21.0 and n = 49 the margin
of error is:

 21.0
E  t 2  2.009   6.027
n 49

SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 81

 Construct the confidence interval: x̄=0.4, E=6.027
x E    x E
0.4  6.027    0.4  6.027
5.6    6.4
 We are 95% confident that the limits of –5.6 and 6.4
actually do contain the value of μ, the mean of the changes
in LDL cholesterol for the population.
 Because the confidence interval limits contain the value of
0, it is very possible that the mean of the changes in LDL
cholesterol is equal to 0, suggesting that the garlic
treatment did not affect the LDL cholesterol levels.
 It does not appear that the garlic treatment is effective in
lowering LDL cholesterol.

SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 82

 1.The Student t distribution is different for different sample
sizes. (See the following slide for the cases n =3 and n =
12.)
 2.The Student t distribution has the same general
symmetric bell shape as the standard normal distribution
but it reflects the greater variability (with wider distributions)
that is expected with small samples.
 3.The Student t distribution has a mean of t = 0 (just as the
standard normal distribution has a mean of z = 0).
 4.The standard deviation of the Student t distribution varies
with the sample size and is greater than 1 (unlike the
standard normal distribution, which has σ = 1).
 5.As the sample size n gets larger, the Student t
distribution gets closer to the normal distribution.

SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 83

SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 84
Point estimate of μ:

= (upper confidence limit) + (lower confidence limit)

2
Margin of Error:

= (upper confidence limit) – (lower confidence limit)

2

SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 85

μ = population mean
σ = population standard deviation
x̄ = sample mean
E = desired margin of error
Zα/2 = z score separating an area of α/2 in the right
tail of the standard normal distribution
n to be rounded up to the next whole number

SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 86

1. Use the range rule of thumb to estimate the
standard deviation as follows: σ ≈ range/4
2. Start the sample collection process without
knowing σ and, using the first several values,
calculate the sample standard deviation s and
use it in place of σ. The estimated value of σ can
then be improved as more sample data are
obtained, and the sample size can be refined
accordingly.
3. Estimate the value of σ by using the results of
some other earlier study.

SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 87

Assume that we want to estimate the mean IQ score for
the population of IS students. How many IS students must
be randomly selected for IQ tests if we want 95%
confidence that the sample mean is within 3 IQ points of
the population mean? Assume that  = 15, as is found in
the general population.

α = 0.05
α/2 = 0.025
zα/2= 1.96 With a simple random sample of only
E= 3 97 statistics students, we will be 95%
confident that the sample mean is
σ = 15 within 3 IQ points of the true
population mean μ.

SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 88

μ = population mean
x̄ = sample mean
σ = population standard deviation
n = number of sample values
E = margin of error
zα/2 = critical z value separating an area of α/2 in
the right tail of the standard normal
distribution

SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 89

 1. The sample is a simple random sample.
(All samples of the same size have an
equal chance of being selected.)
 2. The value of the population standard
deviation σ is known.
 3. Either or both of these conditions is
satisfied: The population is normally
distributed or n > 30.

SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 90

 
x  E    x  E where E  z 2 
n
or x E

or x  E,x  E 

SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 91

People have died in boat and aircraft accidents because
an obsolete estimate of the mean weight of men was
used.
In recent decades, the mean weight of men has
increased considerably, so we need to update our
estimate of that mean so that boats, aircraft, elevators,
and other such devices do not become dangerously
overloaded.
Using the weights of men from a random sample, we
obtain these sample statistics for the simple random
sample: n = 40 and x̄ = 172.55 lb.
Research from several other sources suggests that the
population of weights of men has a standard deviation
given by σ = 26 lb.

SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 92

a. Find the best point estimate of the mean
weight of the population of all men.
b. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate
of the mean weight of all men.
c. What do the results suggest about the mean
weight of 166.3 lb that was used to
determine the safe passenger capacity of
water vessels in 1960?

SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 93

a. The sample mean of 172.55 lb is the best point estimate of
the mean weight of the population of all men.

b. A 95% confidence interval implies that α = 0.05, so

zα/2= 1.96.
Calculate the margin of error.
 26
E  z 2   1.96   8.0574835
n 40
Construct the confidence interval.
x E    x E
172.55  8.0574835    172.55  8.0574835
164.49    180.61

SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 94

(c) Based on the confidence interval, it is possible
that the mean weight of 166.3 lb used in 1960
could be the mean weight of men today.
However, the best point estimate of 172.55 lb
suggests that the mean weight of men is now
considerably greater than 166.3 lb.
Considering that an underestimate of the mean
weight of men could result in lives lost through
overloaded boats and aircraft, these results
strongly suggest that additional data should be
collected.

SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 95

Choosing the Appropriate
Distribution

SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 96

Use the normal (z) σ known and normally
distribution distributed population

or n > 30

Use t distribution σ not known and normally

distributed population

or n > 30

Use a nonparametric Population is not normally

method or distributed and n ≤ 30
bootstrapping
SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 97
 Review and Preview
 Sampling
 The Central Limit Theorem
 Estimating a Population Proportion
 Estimating a Population Mean
 Estimating a Population Standard Deviation or
Variance

SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 98

 Introduction to the chi-square probability
distribution.
 Construction of confidence interval estimates
of a population standard deviation or
variance.
 Method for determining the sample size
required to estimate a population standard
deviation or variance.

SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 99

In a normally distributed population with
variance σ2, assume that we randomly select
independent samples of size n and, for each
sample, compute the sample variance s2 (which
is the square of the sample standard deviation
s).

The sample statistic χ2 (pronounced chi-square)

has a sampling distribution called the chi-
square distribution.

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SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 0
 2 
 n  1 s 2

2
 where
 n = sample size
 s2 = sample variance
 σ2 = population variance
 df = n – 1 degrees of freedom

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1. The chi-square distribution is not symmetric,
unlike the normal and Student t distributions. As the
number of degrees of freedom increases, the
distribution becomes more symmetric.

Chi-Square Distribution Chi-Square Distribution for

df = 10 and df = 20
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SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 2
2. The values of chi-square can be zero or
positive, but it cannot be negative.

3. The chi-square distribution is different for

each number of degrees of freedom, which is
df = n – 1. As the number of degrees of
freedom increases, the chi-square distribution
approaches a normal distribution.

In Table ??, each critical value of χ2 corresponds

to an area given in the top row of the table,
and that area represents the cumulative area
located to the right of the critical value.

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SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 3
A simple random sample of 22 IQ scores is
obtained. Construction of a confidence interval
for the population standard deviation σ requires
the left and right critical values of χ2
corresponding to a confidence level of 95% and
a sample size of n = 22.

Find the critical χ2 values corresponding to a

95% level of confidence.

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SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 4
 10
SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 5
Critical Values of the Chi-Square Distribution

10
SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 6
 The sample variance s2 is the best point
estimate of the population variance σ2.
 The sample standard deviation s is a
commonly used point estimate of σ (even
though it is a biased estimate).

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SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 7
σ = population standard deviation
σ2 = population variance
s = sample standard deviation
s2 = sample variance
n = number of sample values
E = margin of error
Χ2L = left-tailed critical value of χ2
χ2R = right-tailed critical value of χ2

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SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 8
 Requirements:
◦ 1. The sample is a simple random sample.
◦ 2. The population must have normally distributed
values (even if the sample is large).
 Confidence Interval for the Population
Variance σ2 
n  1 s2
  2 

n  1 s 2
 
2
R 2
L
 For the Population Standard Deviation σ :

n  1 s2   

n  1 s2 
 2
R
 L2
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SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 9
 1. Verify that the required assumptions are
satisfied.
 2. Using n – 1 degrees of freedom, refer to
Table or use technology to find the critical
values χ2R and Χ2L that correspond to the
desired confidence level.
 3. Evaluate the upper and lower confidence
interval limits using this format of the
confidence interval: n  1s 2 2 n  1s 2
 
 2
R
 L2

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SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 0
 4. If a confidence interval estimate of σ is
desired, take the square root of the upper and
lower confidence interval limits and change σ2 to
σ.
 5. Round the resulting confidence level limits.
If using the original set of data to construct a
confidence interval, round the confidence
interval limits to one more decimal place than
is used for the original set of data. If using the
sample standard deviation or variance, round
the confidence interval limits to the same
number of decimal places.

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SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 1
 Confidence intervals can be used informally
to compare the variation in different data
sets, but the overlapping of confidence
intervals should not be used for making
formal and final conclusions about equality of
variances or standard deviations.

11
SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 2
 A group of 22 subjects took an IQ test during
part of a study. The subjects had a standard
deviation IQ score of 14.3.

 Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate

of σ, the standard deviation of the population
from which the sample was obtained.

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SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 3
We must first verify the requirements are met.
1. We can treat the sample as a simple random sample.
2. The following display shows a histogram of the data and the
normality assumption can be reasonably met.

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n = 22 so df = 22 – 1 = 21
Use table to find:

  10.283 and   35.479

2
L
2
R

 n  1 s 2 2 
 n  1 s 2

 R2  L2
 22  114.3  22  114.3
2 2

 2

35.479 10.283

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SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 5
 Evaluation of the preceding expression yields:
121.0 < σ2 < 417.6
 Finding the square root of each part (before
rounding), then rounding to two decimal
places, yields this 95% confidence interval
estimate of the population standard
deviation: 11.0 < σ < 20.4
 Based on this result, we have 95%
confidence that the limits of 11.0 and 20.4
contain the true value of σ.

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SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 6
 The procedures for finding the sample size
necessary to estimate σ2 are much more
complex than the procedures given earlier
for means and proportions. Instead of using
very complicated procedures, we will use
the following Table (see next slide).

 We may alternatively use technology

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 11
SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 8
 We want to estimate the standard deviation σ
of all voltage levels in a home. We want to be
95% confident that our estimate is within 20%
of the true value of σ.
 How large should the sample be? Assume
that the population is normally distributed.

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SIS 1037Y 2020/2021 9
 From our Table, we can see that 95%
confidence and an error of 20% for σ
correspond to a sample of size 48.

 We should obtain a simple random sample

of 48 voltage levels form the population of
voltage levels.

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 Sampling techniques
 Central limit theorem
 We have seen a number of methods for
estimating a Population Proportion, a
Population Mean, and a Population Standard
Deviation or Variance.
 When to apply which technique

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Comments?