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Blanchard, Olivier (2021) - Capítulo 2. A Tour of The Book + Appendix A1-A6.pdf ES
Blanchard, Olivier (2021) - Capítulo 2. A Tour of The Book + Appendix A1-A6.pdf ES
Blanchard, Olivier (2021) - Capítulo 2. A Tour of The Book + Appendix A1-A6.pdf ES
output, unemploymentinflation 2
T
he words , and appear daily in newspapers and on the evening news. So when I
used these words in Chapter 1, you knew roughly what we were talking about. It is
now time to define these words more precisely, and this is what I do in the first
three sections of this chapter.
Section 2-4 introduces two important relations between these three variables: Okun’s
law and the Phillips curve.
Section 2-5 then introduces the three central concepts around which the book is
organized:
■■ The short run: What happens to the economy from year to year
If you remember one basic message from this chapter, it should be: The three cen-
tral macroeconomic variables are output, unemployment, and inflation.
39
Un recorrido
el libro por 2
t
producción, desempleo inflación
Él dice y aparece diariamente en los periódicos y en las noticias de la noche.
Entonces, cuando usé estas palabras en el Capítulo 1, sabías aproximadamente de
qué estábamos hablando. Ha llegado el momento de definir estas palabras con
mayor precisión, y eso es lo que hago en las tres primeras secciones de este
capítulo.
La sección 2-1 analiza la producción.
La sección 2-4 presenta dos relaciones importantes entre estas tres variables: la de Okun
Ley y curva de Phillips.
La sección 2-5 luego presenta los tres conceptos centrales en torno a los cuales se basa el libro.
organizado:
■■ ■■El mediano plazo: qué le
El corto plazo: qué le sucede a la economía de un año a otro
sucede a la economía durante aproximadamente una década ■■El largo plazo: qué le sucede a
Basándose en estos tres conceptos, la Sección 2-6 le ofrece una hoja de ruta para el
resto del libro.
Si recuerda un mensaje básico de este capítulo, debería ser: Las tres variables
macroeconómicas centrales son la producción, el desempleo y la inflación.
39
2-1 AGGREGATE OUTPUT
Economists studying economic activity in the 19th century or even during the Great
Depression had no measure of aggregate activity (aggregate is the word macroeconomists
use for total) on which to rely. They had to put together bits and pieces of information,
Two economists, Simon such as the shipments of iron ore, or sales at some department stores, to try to infer what
Kuznets, from Harvard was happening to the economy as a whole.
University, and Richard It was not until the end of World War II that national income and product
Stone, from Cambridge
caccounts (or national income accounts, for short) were put together. Measures of
University, received the
Nobel Prize for their contri- aggregate output have been published on a regular basis in the United States since
butions to the development October 1947. (Measures of aggregate output for earlier times have been constructed
of the national income and retrospectively.)
product accounts—a gigan- Like any accounting system, the national income accounts first define concepts and
tic intellectual and empirical then construct measures corresponding to these concepts. You need only to look at sta-
achievement. tistics from countries that have not yet developed such accounts to realize that precision
and consistency in such accounts are crucial. Without precision and consistency, num-
bers that should add up do not; trying to understand what is going on feels like trying to
balance someone else’s checkbook. I shall not burden you with the details of national
income accounting here. But because you will occasionally need to know the definition
of a variable and how variables relate to each other, Appendix 1 at the end of the book
You may come across gives you the basic accounting framework used in the United States (and, with minor
another term, gross national variations, in most other countries) today. You will find it useful whenever you want to
product, or GNP. There is look at economic data on your own.
a subtle difference between
“domestic” and “national,”
and thus between GDP and
GNP. We examine the dis- GDP: Production and Income
tinction in Chapter 18 and in
Appendix 1 at the end of the The measure of aggregate output in the national income accounts is called the gross
book. For now, ignore it. cdomestic product, or GDP. To understand how GDP is constructed, it is best to work
with a simple example. Consider an economy composed of just two firms:
In reality, not only workers c ■■ Firm 1 produces steel, employing workers and using machines to produce the steel.
and machines are required
It sells the steel for $100 to Firm 2, which produces cars. Firm 1 pays its workers
for steel production, but so
$80, leaving $20 in profit to the firm.
are iron ore, electricity, and
so on. I ignore these to keep ■■ Firm 2 buys the steel and uses it, together with workers and machines, to produce
the example simple. cars. Revenues from car sales are $200. Of the $200, $100 goes to pay for steel and
$70 goes to workers in the firm, leaving $30 in profit to the firm.
We can summarize this information in a table:
40 Introducción El núcleo
of cars, we do not want to also count the production of the goods that went into the pro-
duction of these cars.
This leads to the first definition of GDP:
1. GDP Is the Value of the Final Goods and Services Produced in the Economy during a
Given
Period.
The important word here is final. We want to count only the production of final goods,
not intermediate goods. Using our example, we can make this point in another way. Sup-
pose the two firms merged, so that the sale of steel took place in the new firm and
Steel and Car Company
was
Revenues from sales$200
no longer recorded. The accounts of the new firm would be given by the following table:
Expenses (wages)$150 Profit $50
All we would see would be one firm selling cars for $200, paying workers
$80+$70=$150 and making $20+$30=$50 in profits. The $200 measure would remain
unchanged—as it should. We do not want our measure of aggregate out- put to depend
on whether firms decide to merge or not.
This first definition gives us one way to construct GDP: by recording and adding up
the production of all final goods—and this is indeed roughly the way actual GDP num-
bers are put together. But it also suggests a second way of thinking about and
construct- ing GDP.
2. GDP Is the Sum of Value Added in the Economy during a Given Period.
The value added by a firm is defined as the value of its production minus the value of the
intermediate goods used in production.
In our two-firms example, the steel company does not use intermediate goods. Its
value added is simply equal to the value of the steel it produces, $100. The car company,
however, uses steel as an intermediate good. Thus, the value added by the car company
is equal to the value of the cars it produces minus the value of the steel it uses in
pro-
duction, $200-$100=$100. Total value added in the economy, or GDP, equals
$100+$100=$200. (Note that aggregate value added would remain the same if the
steel and car firms merged and became a single firm. In this case, we would not
observe
intermediate goods at all—because steel would be produced and then used to
produce
cars within the single firm—and the value added in the single firm would simply be equal
to the value of cars, $200.)
This definition gives us a second way of thinking about GDP. Put together, the two
definitions imply that the value of final goods and services—the first definition of GDP—
can also be thought of as the sum of the value added by all the firms in the economy—the
second definition of GDP.
So far, we have looked at GDP from the production side. The other way of looking at
GDP is from the income side. Go back to our example and think about the revenues left
to a
firm
— after it has paid for its intermediate goods: Some of the revenues go to pay workers
this component is called labor income. The rest goes to the firm—that component is
called
capital
think ofincome or profit income (the reason it is called capital income is that you can
it as remuneration for the owners of the capital used in production).
Chapter 2 A Tour of the Book 41
Of the $100 of value added by the steel manufacturer, $80 goes to workers (labor
income) and the remaining $20 goes to the firm (capital income). Of the $100 of value
added by the car manufacturer, $70 goes to labor income and $30 to capital income.
de automóviles, no queremos contar también la producción de los bienes que se
destinaron a la producción de estos automóviles.
Esto lleva a la primera definición de PIB:
1. El PIB es el valor de los bienes y servicios finales producidos en la economía durante
un período determinado.
como la suma de las cantidades de bienes finales multiplicada por los precios constantes
Cantidad Precio Producto PIB real
(en lugar deAño
los actuales).
de autos de los interno (en dólares de
Si la economía produjera sólo coches
un bien final, bruto un solo
digamos 2012)
201 10
del automóvil enmodelo
construir el PIB real sería fácil: usaríamos el precionominal un añode automóvil,
determinado y
calcular la cantidad de
12 automóviles$20,00
producidos en cada año. Un$240,000
ejemplo ayudará aquí.
1
Consideremos una economía que sólo produce automóviles y, para evitar problemas que
abordaremos más13 adelante, supongamos $200,000
que sey produce
201 años. Supongamos
0 el número el precioel
demismo modelo todos
los automóviles
$288,000
los
en tres
Los años sucesivos están dados por: $288,000
2 $24,00 $312,000
201 $338,000
El PIB nominal, que es igual a la0 cantidad de automóviles multiplicada por su precio,
aumenta3de 200.000 dólares en 2011 a 288.000 dólares en 2012 (un aumento del 44%)
$26,00 y de 288.000 dólares en
2012 a $338,000 en 2013, un aumento
0 del 17%.
■■Para construir el PIB real, necesitamos multiplicar el número de automóviles cada
año por un
precio común. Supongamos que utilizamos el precio de un automóvil encomún.
precio 2012 como
Este
42 Este enfoque nos
Introducción El da el PIB real en dólares de 2012.
núcleo
■■Using this approach, real GDP in 2011 (in 2012 dollars) equals 10 cars*$24,000
per car=$240,000. Real GDP in 2012 (in 2012 dollars) equals 12 cars *
$24,000 per car=$288,000, the same as nominal GDP in 2012. Real GDP in
2013 (in 2012 dollars) is equal to 13*$24,000=$312,000.
So real GDP goes up from $240,000 in 2011 to $288,000 in 2012—a 20% increase—
and from $288,000 in 2012 to $312,000 in 2013—an 8% increase.
■■ How different would our results have been if we had decided to construct real
To check, compute real GDP
GDP using the price of a car in, say, 2013 rather than 2012? Obviously, the level
in 2013 dollars, and compute
of real GDP in each year would be different (because the prices are not the same the rate of growth from 2011
in 2013 than in 2012); but its rate of change from year to year would be the to 2012, and from 2012 to
same as shown.b 2013.
The problem when constructing real GDP in practice is that there is obviously more
than one final good. Real GDP must be defined as a weighted average of the output of all
final goods, and this brings us to what the weights should be.
The relative prices of the goods would appear to be the natural weights. If one good
costs twice as much per unit as another, then that good should count for twice as
much as the other in the construction of real output. But this raises the question:
What if, as is typically the case, relative prices change over time? Should we choose the
relative prices of a particular year as weights, or should we change the weights over
time? More discussion of these issues, and of the way real GDP is constructed in the
United States, is in the appendix to this chapter. Here, what you should know is that
the measure of real GDP in the US national income accounts uses weights that reflect
The year used to construct
relative prices and change over time. The measure is called real GDP in chained prices, at this point 2012,
(2012) dollars. It says 2012 because, as in our example, at this point in time 2012 is called the base year. The
is the year when, by construction, real GDP is equal to nominal GDP. It is our best base year is changed from
measure of the output of the US economy, and its evolution shows how US output has time to time, and when you
read this book, it may have
increased over time.b
changed again.
Figure 2-1 plots the evolution of both nominal GDP and real GDP since 1960. By
construction, the two are equal in 2012. Real GDP in 2018 was about 5.7 times its level
of 1960—a considerable increase, but clearly much less than the 38-fold increase in
25 Figure 2-1
Nominal and Real US
GDP, 1960–2018.
20
From 1960 to 2018, nominal
GDP increased by a factor of
15 38. Real GDP increased by a
Trillions
factor of 5.7.
Real GDP
(trillions of 2012 dollars)
Source: FRED. Series GDPC,
10
GDP.
5 Nominal GDP
(trillions of current dollars)
0
960
962
964
966
968
970
972
974
976
978
980
982
984
986
988
990
992
994
996
998
000
002
004
006
008
010
012
014
016
018
final. El PIB real debe definirse como un promedio ponderado de la producción de todos
los bienes finales, y esto nos lleva a cuáles deberían ser las ponderaciones.
Los
el precios
doble porrelativos
unidad de los
que bienes
otro, parecerían
entonces serdebería
los pesos naturales.
el dobleSique
un bien cuesta
construcción de la producción real. Peroese bien
esto plantea contar
la pregunta: el otro en la
¿Qué pasa si, como suele ocurrir, los precios relativos cambian con el tiempo? El año utilizado para
construir los precios, en
¿Deberíamos elegir los precios relativos de un año en particular como ponderaciones, o
este momento 2012, se
deberíamos cambiar las ponderaciones a lo largo del tiempo? En el apéndice de este denomina año base. El año
base cambia de vez en
capítulo se analizan más estos temas y la forma en que se construye el PIB real en cuando y, cuando lea este
libro, es posible que haya
Estados Unidos. En este caso, lo que debe saber es que la medida del PIB real en las cambiado nuevamente.
cuentas del ingreso nacional de EE. UU. utiliza ponderaciones que reflejan precios
relativos y cambian con el tiempo. La medida se llama PIB real encadenado
(2012) dólares. Dice 2012 porque, como en nuestro ejemplo, en este momento
2012 25 Figura 2-1
es el añodeenlaelproducción
medida que, por construcción,
de la el PIB
economía real es igual aly PIB
estadounidense, su nominal. Es
evolución nuestra
muestra mejor
cómo la
producción estadounidense ha aumentado conreal
el tiempo.b La Figura 2-1 muestra la PIB nominal y real de
evolución
son iguales.tanto
en del PIB
2012. El nominal
PIB real como
en del fue
2018 PIB desde 1960.
aproximadamente Por
5,7 construcción,
veces su nivellos
de dos EE. UU., 1960-2018.
1960, un aumento considerable, pero claramente mucho menor que el aumento de 38
veces 20
en
De 1960 a 2018, el PIB
nominal aumentó por un
15 factor de 38. El PIB real
aumentó por un factor de
Billone
PIB.
24.0
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
24.0
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
200
8
44 Introducció El
n núcleo
Real GDP, Technological Progress,
FOCUS
and the Price of Computers
A tough problem in calculating real GDP is how to deal with year. Then economists in charge of computing the adjusted
changes in quality of existing goods. One of the most price of computers will conclude that new computers are in
difficult cases is computers. It would clearly be absurd to fact 10% cheaper than last year.
assume that a personal computer in 2019 is the same good This approach, which treats goods as providing a col-
as a personal computer produced, say, 20 years ago: The lection of characteristics—for computers, speed,
2019 version can clearly do much more than the 1999
memory, and so on—each with an implicit price, is called
version. But how much more? How do we measure it? How
hedonic pricing (“hedone” means “pleasure” in Greek.
do we take into account the improvements in internal
speed, the size of the RAM (random access memory) or of What matters in assessing the value of a good is how
the hard disk, faster access to the internet, and so on? much util- ity (“pleasure”) it provides). It is used by the
The approach used by economists to adjust for these Department of Commerce—which constructs real GDP—
improvements is to look at the market for computers and to estimate changes in the price of complex and fast-
how it values computers with different characteristics in a changing goods, such as automobiles and computers.
given year. Example: Suppose the evidence from prices of Using this approach, the Department of Commerce
different models on the market shows that people are will- estimates, for example, that for a given price, the
ing to pay 10% more for a computer with a speed of 4 GHz quality of new laptops has increased on average by 20%
(4,000 megahertz) rather than 3 GHz. (The first e dition of a year since 1999 (if you want to look, the series is given
this book, published in 1996, compared two computers, by PCU33411133411172 in the FRED database). Put
with speeds of 50 and 16 megahertz, respectively. This another way, a typical laptop in 2019 delivers
change is a good indication of technological progress.)
1.2021=46 times the computing services a typi- cal
Suppose new computers this year have a speed of 4 GHz
laptop delivered in 1999. (Interestingly, in light of the
compared to a speed of 3 GHz for new computers last year.
(A further indication of the complexity of technological discussion of slowing US productivity growth in Chapter
progress is that, in the more recent past, progress has been 1, the rate of quality improvement has decreased
made not so much by increasing the speed of processors substan-
but rather by using multicore processors, which allow for tially in the recent past, and is now closer to 10%.)
faster parallel processing. We shall leave this aspect aside Not only do laptops deliver more services, they have become
here, but people in charge of national income accounts can- cheaper as well: Their dollar price has declined by about 7%
not.) And suppose the dollar price of new computers this a year since 1999. Putting this together with the information
year is the same as the dollar price of new computers last in the previous paragraph, this implies that their quality-
adjusted price has fallen at an average rate of
20%+7%=27% per year. Put another way, a dollar spent on
a laptop today buys 1.2721=151 times more comput-
ing services than a dollar spent on a laptop in 1999.
ENFO
Un problema difícil al calcular el PIB real es cómo abordar año. Entonces los economistas encargados de calcular el
los cambios en la calidad de los bienes existentes. Uno de precio ajustado de las computadoras concluirán que las
los casos más difíciles son los ordenadores. Sería computadoras nuevas son de hecho un 10% más baratas
claramente absurdo suponer que una computadora que el año pasado.
personal en 2019 es el mismo bien que una computadora Este enfoque, que considera que los bienes
personal producida, digamos, hace 20 años: la versión de
proporcionan un conjunto de características (en el caso
2019 claramente puede hacer mucho más que la versión de
de las computadoras, velocidad, memoria, etc.), cada
1999. ¿Pero cuánto más? ¿Como lo medimos? ¿Cómo
tenemos en cuenta las mejoras en la velocidad interna, el una con un precio implícito, se denomina fijación de
tamaño de la RAM (memoria de acceso aleatorio) o del disco precios hedónicos (“hedone” significa “placer” en
duro, un acceso más rápido a Internet, etcétera? griego). evaluar el valor de un bien es cuánta utilidad
El enfoque utilizado por los economistas para ajustarse a (“placer”) proporciona). Lo utiliza el Departamento de
estas mejoras es observar el mercado de computadoras y Comercio (que construye el PIB real) para estimar
cómo valora las computadoras con diferentes cambios en el precio de bienes complejos y que cambian
características en un año determinado. Ejemplo: rápidamente, como automóviles y computadoras.
supongamos que la evidencia de los precios de diferentes Utilizando este enfoque, el Departamento de Comercio
modelos en el mercado muestra que la gente está dispuesta estima, por ejemplo, que para un precio determinado, la
a pagar un 10% más por una computadora con una calidad de las computadoras portátiles nuevas ha
velocidad de 4 GHz (4000 megahercios) en lugar de 3 GHz. aumentado en promedio un 20% anual desde 1999 (si
(La primera edición de este libro, publicada en 1996,
quieres ver, la serie está dada por PCU33411133411172
comparó dos computadoras con velocidades de 50 y 16
en el base de datos FRED). Dicho de otra manera, una
megahercios, respectivamente. Este cambio es una buena
indicación del progreso tecnológico.) Supongamos que las computadora portátil típica en 2019 ofrece 1,2021 = 46
computadoras nuevas de este año tienen una velocidad de veces los servicios informáticos que una computadora
4 GHz en comparación. a una velocidad de 3 GHz para portátil típica ofrecía en 1999. (Curiosamente, a la luz
computadoras nuevas el año pasado. (Otra indicación de la de la discusión sobre la desaceleración del crecimiento
complejidad del progreso tecnológico es que, en el pasado de la productividad en EE. UU. en el Capítulo 1, la tasa
más reciente, el progreso no se ha logrado tanto mediante de mejora de la calidad ha disminuido sustancia
el aumento de la velocidad de los procesadores sino más inicialmente en el pasado reciente, y ahora está más cerca
bien mediante el uso de procesadores multinúcleo, que del 10%).
permiten un procesamiento paralelo más rápido. Las computadoras portátiles no sólo brindan más servicios,
Dejaremos esto Este aspecto se deja a un lado, pero las sino que también se han vuelto más baratas: su precio en
personas a cargo de las cuentas del ingreso nacional no dólares ha disminuido aproximadamente un 7% anual desde
pueden hacerlo.) Y supongamos que el precio en dólares de
1999. Si juntamos esto con la información del párrafo
las computadoras nuevas este año es el mismo que el
anterior, esto implica que su precio ajustado por calidad ha
precio en dólares de las computadoras nuevas el año
pasado. caído. a una tasa promedio de 20%+7%=27% anual. Dicho
2-2 LA TASA DE DESEMPLEO de otra manera, un dólar gastado hoy en una computadora
portátil compra 1,2721 = 151 veces más computadora.
servicios de Internet que un dólar gastado en una
Como es una medida de la actividad agregada, computadora
el PIB esportátilobviamente
en 1999.
la variable
macroeconómica más importante. Pero otras dos variables, el desempleo y la inflación,
nos hablan de otros aspectos importantes del desempeño de una economía. Esta
sección se centra en la tasa de desempleo.
Partimos de dos definiciones: Empleo es el número de personas que tienen un empleo.
El desempleo es el número de personas que no tienen trabajo pero están buscando uno.
La fuerza laboral es la suma del empleo y el desempleo:
L = norte + U
fuerza laboral = empleo + desempleo
La tasa de desempleo es la relación entre el número de personas que están
desempleadas
al número de personas en la fuerza laboral:
EN en =
1965-7
1967-5
1961-11
1963-9
1969-3
1971-1
1972-11
1974-9
1976-7
1978-5
1980-3
1982-1
1983-11
1985-9
1987-7
1989-5
1991-3
1993-1
1994-11
1996-9
1998-7
2000-5
2002-3
2004-1
2005-11
2007-9
2009-7
2011-5
2013-3
2015-1
2016-11
2018-9
right: Every month, many people become unemployed, and many of the unemployed
find jobs. When unemployment is high, however, as it was during the crisis, another
image becomes more relevant. Not only are more people unemployed, but also many
of them are unemployed for a long time. For example, the mean duration of unemploy-
ment was 16 weeks on average during 2000–2007, but increased to 40 weeks in 2011.
When unemployment increases, not only does unemployment become more wide-
spread, it also becomes more painful for those who are unemployed.
Second, economists also care about the unemployment rate because it provides
a signal that the economy is not using some of its resources. When unemployment is
high, many workers who want to work do not find jobs; the economy is clearly not using
its human resources efficiently. What about when unemployment is low? Can very low
unemployment also be a problem? The answer is yes. Like an engine running at too high b
a speed, an economy in which unemployment is very low may be overusing its resources It is probably because of
statements like this that
and run into labor shortages. How low is “too low”? This is a difficult question, and a economics is known as the
question that, as of early 2019, is very relevant. The current rate of unemployment is “dismal science.”
below 4%, which is, as you can see from Figure 2-3, historically low. Whether it should be
allowed to decrease further, or instead stabilized at the current level, is one of the main
policy issues facing the Fed today.
We saw how increases in nominal GDP can come either from an increase in real GDP, or
from an increase in prices. Put another way, if we see nominal GDP increase faster than
real GDP, the difference must come from an increase in prices.
7
aproximadamente el 3% y el
Por
6 11%.
Fuente: Serie FRED: SIN
5 CALIFICAR.
4
3
2
1960-1
1967-5
1961-11
1963-9
1965-7
1969-3
1971-1
1972-11
1974-9
1976-7
1978-5
1980-3
1982-1
1983-11
1985-9
1987-7
1989-5
1991-3
1993-1
1994-11
1996-9
1998-7
2000-5
2002-3
2004-1
2005-11
2007-9
2009-7
2011-5
2013-3
2015-1
2016-11
2018-9
Derecha: Cada mes, muchas personas quedan desempleadas y muchos de los
desempleados encuentran trabajo. Sin embargo, cuando el desempleo es alto, como lo
fue durante la crisis, otra imagen se vuelve más relevante. No sólo hay más gente
desempleada, sino que además muchos de ellos lo están desde hace mucho tiempo.
Por ejemplo, la duración media del desempleo fue de 16 semanas en promedio
durante 2000-2007, pero aumentó a 40 semanas en 2011. Cuando el desempleo
aumenta, no sólo se generaliza, sino que también se vuelve más doloroso para quienes
están desempleados.
En segundo lugar, a los economistas también les preocupa la tasa de desempleo porque
proporciona una señal de que la economía no está utilizando algunos de sus recursos.
Cuando el desempleo es alto, muchos trabajadores que quieren trabajar no encuentran
empleo; Es evidente que la economía no está utilizando sus recursos humanos de manera
eficiente. ¿Qué pasa cuando el desempleo es bajo? ¿Puede ser también un problema el Probablemente sea por
afirmaciones como ésta
desempleo muy bajo? La respuesta es sí. Al igual que un motor que funciona a una
que a la economía se la
velocidad demasiado alta, una economía en la que el desempleo es muy bajo puede estar conoce como la “ciencia
abusando de sus recursos y sufriendo escasez de mano de obra. ¿Qué tan bajo es lúgubre”.
“demasiado bajo”? Esta es una pregunta difícil y que, a principios de 2019, es muy
relevante. La tasa actual de desempleo está por debajo del 4%, que es, como se puede
ver en la Figura 2-3, un nivel históricamente bajo. Una de las principales cuestiones de
política que enfrenta hoy la Reserva Federal es si se debe permitir que siga disminuyendo
o, en cambio, estabilizarla en el nivel actual.
2-3 LA TASA DE
La deflación es rara, pero
La inflaciónINFLACIÓN
es un aumento sostenido del nivel general de precios: el nivel de precios. sucede. Estados Unidos
La tasa de inflación es la tasa a la que aumenta el nivel de precios. (Simétricamente, experimentó una deflación
sostenida en la década de
la deflación es una caída sostenida del nivel de precios. Corresponde a una tasa de 1930, durante la Gran
inflación negativa.)b Depresión (véase el
La cuestión práctica es cómo definir el nivel de precios para poder medir la tasa de recuadro de enfoque en el
inflación. capítulo 9). Japón ha tenido
seguro. Los macroeconomistas suelen considerar dos medidas del nivel de precios, dos deflación, de forma
índices de precios: el deflactor del PIB y el índice de precios al consumidor. intermitente, desde finales
El deflactor del de los años 1990. Más
recientemente, la zona del
PIB cómo los aumentos del PIB nominal pueden provenir de un aumento del PIB real
Vimos euro ha tenido breves
o de un aumento de los precios. Dicho de otra manera, si vemos que el PIB nominal períodos de deflación.
aumenta más rápido que el PIB real, la diferencia debe provenir de un aumento de los
precios.
Capitulo 2 Un recorrido por el 47
libro
FOCUS Unemployment and Happiness
How painful is unemployment? To answer this question, one other studies suggest that this decrease in happiness is
needs information about particular individuals and how close to the decrease triggered by a divorce or a separation.
their happiness varies as they become unemployed. This The second is that happiness declines before the actual
information is available from the German Socio-Economic unem- ployment spell. This suggests that either workers
Panel survey. The survey has followed about 11,000 house- know they are more likely to become unemployed, or that
holds each year since 1984, asking each member of the they like their job less and less. The third is that happiness
household a number of questions about their employment does not fully recover even four years after the
status, their income, and their happiness. The specific ques- unemployment spell. This suggests that unemployment
tion in the survey about happiness is the following: “How may do some long- lasting damage, either because of the
satisfied are you at present with your life as a whole?”, with experience of unem- ployment itself or because the new job
the answer rated from 0 (“completely dissatisfied”) to 10 is not as satisfying as the old one.
(“completely satisfied”). In thinking about how to deal with unemployment, it
The effect of unemployment on happiness defined in this is essential to understand how unemployment decreases
way is shown in Figure 1. The figure plots the average life happiness. One important finding in this respect is that the
satis- faction for individuals who were unemployed during decrease in happiness does not depend very much on the
one year, and employed in the four years before and in the generosity of unemployment benefits. In other words, unem-
four years after. Year 0 is the year of unemployment. Years ployment affects happiness not so much through financial
−4 to −1 are channels as through psychological channels. To cite George
the years before unemployment, years 1 to 4 the years after. Akerlof, a Nobel Prize–winning economist, “A person with-
The figure suggests three conclusions. The first and main out a job loses not just his income but often the sense that he
one is indeed that becoming unemployed leads to a large is fulfilling the duties expected of him as a human being.”1
decrease in happiness. To give you a sense of scale,
Figure 1
7.200
Effects of Unemployment
on Happiness.
7.000
Source: Winkelmann 2014.
Life satisfaction index
6.800
6.600
6.400
6.200
6.000
24 23 22 21 0 1 2 3 4
This remark motivates the definition of the GDP deflator. The GDP deflator in year
t, Pt, is defined as the ratio of nominal GDP to real GDP in year t:
Nominal GDP$Y
P= t=tt
Real GDPtYt
Note that, in the year in which, by construction, real GDP is equal to nominal GDP
(2012 at this point in the United States), this definition implies that the price level is equal
to 1. This is worth emphasizing: The GDP deflator is called an index number. Its level is
1
The material in this box, and in particular the figure, comes in part from “Unemployment and Happiness,” by Rainer
Winkelmann, IZA World of Labor, 2014: 94, pp. 1–9.
6.80
0
6.60
con la vida
6.40
0
6.20
0
6.000
24 23 22 21 0 1 2 3 4
Esta observación motiva la definición del deflactor del PIB. El deflactor del PIB en el año
t, Pt, se define como la relación entre el PIB nominal y el PIB real en el año t:
Nominal GDP$Y
P=t=tt
PIB realtYt
Tenga en cuenta que, en el año en el que, por construcción, el PIB real es igual al PIB
nominal
(2012
es a
igual estas alturas en Estados Unidos), esta definición implica que el nivel de precios
nivel
1 es a 1. Vale la pena enfatizar esto: el deflactor del PIB se llama número índice. Su
El material deIZA
Winkelmann, esteWorld
recuadro, y en particular
of Labour, 2014: 94,lapágs.
figura, proviene en parte de “Unemployment and Happiness”, de Rainer
1–9.
48 Introducción El
núcleo
chosen arbitrarily—here it is equal to 1 in 2012—and has no economic interpretation.
b Index numbers are often set
But its rate of change, (Pt-Pt-1) equal to 100 (in the base
>Pt-1 (which we shall denote by pt in the rest of the book), has a clear economic
interpretation: It gives the rate at which the general level of year) rather than to 1. If you
prices increases over time—the rate of inflation. look at the series for the GDP
deflator in FRED (GDPDEF), it
One advantage to defining the price level as the GDP deflator is that it implies a sim-
is equal to 100 for 2012 (the
ple relation between nominal GDP, real GDP, and the GDP deflator. To see this, base year), 101.7 in 2013,
and so on.
reorganize
the previous equation to get: Compute the GDP deflator
and the associated rate of
$Yt = PtYt inflation from 2011 to 2012
Nominal GDP is equal to the GDP deflator times real GDP. Or, putting it in terms of rates and from 2012 to 2013 in our
car example in Section 2-1,
of change: The rate of growth of nominal GDP is equal to the rate of inflation plus the when real GDP is constructed
rate of growth of real GDP. b
using the 2012 price of cars
as the common price. (For
The Consumer Price Index a refresher on going from
levels to rates of change, see
The GDP deflator gives the average price of output—the final goods produced in the Appendix 2 at the end of the
economy. But consumers care about the average price of consumption—the goods book, Proposition 7.)
they consume. The two prices need not be the same: The set of goods produced in
the economy is not the same as the set of goods purchased by consumers, for two
reasons:
■■Some of the goods in GDP are sold not to consumers but to firms (machine tools, for
example), to the government, or to foreigners.
■■Some of the goods bought by consumers are not produced domestically but are
imported from abroad. Do not confuse the CPI with
To measure the average price of consumption, or, equivalently, the cost of living, the PPI, or producer price
index, which is an index
macroeconomists look at another index, the Consumer Price Index, or CPI. The of prices of domestically
CPI has been in existence in the United States since 1917 and is published monthly (in produced goods in manu-
contrast, numbers for GDP and the GDP deflator are constructed and published only b facturing, mining, agriculture,
quar terly). fishing, forestry, and electric
The CPI gives the cost in dollars of a specific list of goods and services over time. The utility industries.
list, which is based on a detailed study of consumer spending, attempts to represent
the
consumption basket of a typical urban consumer and is updated every two years.
Each month, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employees visit stores to find out what
has
38 happened to the price of the goods on the list; prices are collected for 211 items in
Do not ask why such a
cities. These prices are then used to construct the CPI. strange base period was
Like the GDP deflator (the price level associated with aggregate output, GDP), the chosen. Nobody seems to
remember.
CPI is an index. It is set equal to 100 in the period chosen as the base period and b
so
its level has no particular significance. The current base period is 1982 to 1984, so
the average for that period is equal to 100. In 2018, the CPI was 250; thus, it cost two
and a half times as much in dollars to purchase the same consumption basket than in
1982–1984.
You may wonder how the rate of inflation differs depending on whether the GDP
deflator or the CPI is used to measure it. The answer is given in Figure 2-4, which
plots the two inflation rates since 1960 for the United States. The figure yields two
conclusions:
■■The CPI and the GDP deflator move together most of the time. In most years, the
two
inflation rates differ by less than 1%.
■■ But there are clear exceptions. In 1979 and 1980, the increase in the CPI was
significantly larger than the increase in the GDP deflator.
Chapter The
2 reason
A Tour is
of not hard
the Book 49
to find. Recall that the GDP deflator is the price of goods produced in the United
States, whereas the CPI is the price of goods consumed in the United States. That
elegido arbitrariamente (aquí es igual a 1 en 2012) y no tiene interpretación
b Los números índice a menudo
económica. Pero su tasa de cambio, (Pt-Pt-1) se fijan en 100 (en el año
>Pt-1 (que denotaremos por pt en el resto del libro), tiene una interpretación económica
clara: da la tasa a la que el nivel general de base) en lugar de 1. Si nos
los precios aumentan con el tiempo: la tasa de inflación. fijamos en la serie del
Una ventaja de definir el nivel de precios como deflactor del PIB es que implica una deflactor del PIB en FRED
(GDPDEF), es igual a 100
relación entre el PIB nominal, el PIB real y el deflactor del PIB. Para ver esto, reorganice para 2012 (el año base),
la ecuación anterior para obtener: 101,7 en 2013, y así
sucesivamente.
$Yt = PtYt Calcule el deflactor del PIB y
El PIB nominal es igual al deflactor del PIB multiplicado por el PIB real. O dicho en la tasa de inflación asociada
términos de tarifas.
de cambio: La tasa de crecimiento del PIB nominal es igual a la tasa de inflación más de 2011 a 2012 y de 2012 a
b
la tasa de crecimiento del PIB real. 2013 en nuestro ejemplo de
consumidor
El deflactor del PIB da el precio promedio de la producción: los bienes finales 1, cuando el PIB real se
producidos en la economía. Pero a los consumidores les importa el precio construye utilizando el precio
promedio de consumo: los bienes que consumen. Los dos precios no tienen por
qué ser iguales: el conjunto de bienes producidos en la economía no es el mismo de los automóviles de 2012
que el conjunto de bienes comprados por los consumidores, por dos razones: como precio común. (Para un
■■Algunos de los bienes del PIB no se venden a consumidores sino a empresas repaso sobre cómo pasar de
■■El IPC y el deflactor del PIB se mueven juntos la mayor parte del tiempo. En la
libro
2.0
GDP deflator inflation
0.0
22.0
2000
2004
2008
2006
2002
1980
1984
2010
2014
1988
1960
1964
1990
1994
1970
1974
1968
1986
1998
2016
1978
1966
1996
1982
1976
2012
1962
1992
1972
means when the price of imported goods increases relative to the price of goods
produced in the United States, the CPI increases faster than the GDP deflator.
This is precisely what happened in 1979 and 1980. The price of oil doubled. And
although the United States was a producer of oil, it produced less than it con-
sumed: It was an oil importer. The result was a large increase in the CPI compared
to the GDP deflator.
In what follows, we shall typically assume that the two indexes move together so
we do not need to distinguish between them. We shall simply talk about the price level
and denote it by Pt, without indicating whether we have the CPI or the GDP deflator
in mind.
■■During periods of inflation, not all prices and wages rise proportionately. Because
they don’t, inflation affects income distribution. For example, retirees in some coun-
tries receive payments that do not keep up with the price level, so they lose in relation
4asa de inflación,
T 14,0
utilizando el IPC y el
deflactor del PIB, 12,0
2,0
Inflación del
deflactor del PIB
0,0
22,0
1966
996
1976
2012
1962
1992
1972
ecie
200
200
200
200
200
och
nov
1dos
nto
ent
198
198
198
198
mil
201
201
201
196
196
196
199
199
199
197
197
197
ay
0
4
8
s8
8
6
6
significa que cuando el precio de los bienes importados aumenta en relación con el
precio de los bienes producidos en Estados Unidos, el IPC aumenta más rápido que
el deflactor del PIB.
Esto es precisamente lo que ocurrió en 1979 y 1980. El precio del petróleo se
duplicó. Y aunque Estados Unidos era un productor de petróleo, producía menos de
lo que consumía: era un importador de petróleo. El resultado fue un gran aumento del
IPC en comparación
al deflactor del PIB.
En lo que sigue, normalmente asumiremos que los dos índices se mueven juntos de
modo que
no necesitamos por
lo denotaremos distinguir
Pt, sinentre ellos.
indicar Simplemente
si tenemos hablaremos
en mente deldeflactor
el IPC o el nivel de del
precios
PIB. y
¿Por qué a los economistas les importa la
inflación?
Si una tasa de inflación más alta significara simplemente un aumento más rápido
pero proporcional de todos los precios y salarios (un caso llamado inflación pura), la
inflación sería sólo un inconveniente menor porque los precios relativos no se verían
afectados.
Tomemos, por ejemplo, el salario real de los trabajadores: el salario medido en
términos de bienes y no de dólares. Supongamos que la inflación de precios fuera
del 2% y la inflación de los salarios del 4%, por lo que los salarios reales
aumentaron un 2% anual, lo que refleja el crecimiento de la productividad.
Supongamos ahora que la inflación de precios fuera del 4% y la inflación de los
salarios del 6%. Los salarios reales seguirían aumentando entre un 6% y un 4% =
2%, igual que antes. En otras palabras, una inflación más alta no afectaría los
salarios reales (ni otros precios relativos). La inflación no sería del todo irrelevante;
la gente tendría que seguir el aumento de precios y salarios al tomar decisiones.
Pero esto sería una carga pequeña, que difícilmente justificaría hacer del control de
la tasa de inflación una de las
los principales objetivos de la política macroeconómica.
Entonces, ¿por qué a los economistas les importa la inflación? Precisamente porque no
existe tal cosa.
como inflación pura:
Okun’s Law
Intuition suggests that if output growth is high, unemployment will decrease, and this is
indeed true. This relation was first examined by US economist Arthur Okun and for this
Arthur Okun was an adviser
reason has become known as Okun’s law. Figure 2-5 plots quarterly changes in the
to President John F. Kennedy
unemployment rate on the vertical axis against the quarterly rate of growth of output on in the 1960s. Okun’s law is,
the horizontal axis for the United States since the first quarter of 2000. It also draws the of course, not a law but an
line that best fits the cloud of points. Looking at the figure and the line suggests two b empirical regularity.
conclusions:
■■The line is downward sloping and fits the cloud of points quite well. Put in economic Such a graph, plotting one
terms: There is a strong relation between the two variables: Higher output growth variable against another, is
called a scatterplot. The line
leads to a decrease in unemployment. The slope of the line is—0.3. This implies that, is called a regression line.
b
on average, an increase in the growth rate of 1% decreases the unemployment rate For more on regressions, see
by roughly—0.3%. This is why unemployment goes up in recessions and down in Appendix 3 at the end of the
expansions. This relation has a simple but important implication: The key to decreas- book.
ing unemployment is a high enough rate of growth.
■■ This line crosses the horizontal axis at the point where quarterly output growth is
roughly equal to 0.5%, equivalently when annual output growth is equal to 2%. In
economic terms: It takes an annual growth rate of about 2% to keep unemployment
Cantida
Año 1 $
$Valor
■■ El PIB real en el año 0 sería igual a (10*$1+5*$3)
= $25.
Papas (libras) d 15
Precio
15 ■■ El PIB real en el año 1 sería igual a (15*$1+5*$3)
Vino (botellas) 5 1 15 = $30.
Producto interno
bruto nominal
3 30 ■■ La tasa de crecimiento del PIB real del año 0 al año 1
sería
60 Introducción El será igual a $5/$25, o 20%.
núcleo Por lo tanto, la respuesta utilizando el año 1 como año base
sería
choice of the base year affects the constructed percentage 3. Constructing an index for the level of real GDP by linking—or
rate of change in real output, which base year should one chaining—the constructed rates of change for each year. The
choose? index is set equal to 1 in some arbitrary year. At the time this
Until the mid-1990s in the United States—and still in most book is being written, the arbitrary year is 2012. Given that
countries today—the practice was to choose a base year and the constructed rate of change from 2012 to 2013 by the BEA
change it infrequently, say, every five years or so. For example, is 1.7%, the index for 2013 equals
in the United States, 1987 was the base year used from
December 1991 to December 1995. That is, measures of real 11+1.7%2=1.017. The index for 2014 is then obtained by mult
GDP pub- lished, for example, in 1994 for both 1994 and for and so on.
all earlier years were constructed using 1987 prices. In
4. Multiplying this index by nominal GDP in 2012 to derive real
December 1995, national income accounts shifted to 1992 as
a base year; measures of real GDP in chained (2012) dollars. As the index is 1 in 2012, this
GDP for all earlier years were recalculated using 1992 prices. implies that real GDP in 2012 equals nominal GDP in 2012.
This practice was logically unappealing. Every time the Chained refers to the chaining of rates of change
base year was changed and a new set of prices was used, described previously. (2012) refers to the year where, by con-
all past real GDP numbers—and all past real GDP growth struction, real GDP is equal to nominal GDP.
rates— were recomputed: Economic history was, in effect, This index is more complicated to construct than the
rewritten every five years! Starting in December 1995, the indexes used before 1995. (To make sure you understand
US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)—the government the steps, construct real GDP in chained (year 0) dollars for
office that produces the GDP numbers—shifted to a new year 1 in the earlier example.)* But it is clearly better con-
method that does not suffer from this problem. ceptually: The prices used to evaluate real GDP in two adja-
The method requires four steps: cent years are the right prices, namely the average prices for
1. Constructing the rate of change of real GDP from year t those two years. And, because the rate of change from one
to year t+1 in two different ways: First using the prices year to the next is constructed using the prices in those two
from year t as the set of common prices; second, using the years rather than the set of prices in an arbitrary base year,
prices from year t+1 as the set of common prices. For history will not be rewritten every five years—as it used to be
example, the rate of change of GDP from 2017 to 2018 is when, under the previous method for constructing real GDP,
computed by: the base year was changed every five years.
■■ Constructing real GDP for 2017 and real GDP for * What happens to measured real GDP when the base year is
2018 using 2017 prices as the set of common prices, changed? What happens to real GDP growth?
and computing a first measure of the rate of growth (For more details, go to www.bea.gov/scb/pdf/national/
of GDP from 2017 to 2018. nipa/1995/0795od.pdf.)
■■ Constructing real GDP for 2017 and 2018 using
2018 prices as the set of common prices, and com-
puting a second measure of the rate of growth of
GDP from 2017 to 2018. Key Term
2. Constructing the rate of change of real GDP as the average base year, 60
of these two rates of change.
APPENDIX 1 An Introduction to the The top part of the table (lines 1–8) goes from GDP to
National Income and Product national income—the sum of the incomes received by the
different factors of production:
Accounts
This appendix introduces the basic structure and the terms
■■The starting point, in line 1, is gross domestic
used in the national income and product accounts. The product (GDP). GDP is defined as the market value
basic measure of aggregate activity is gross domestic of the goods and services produced by labor and property
prod- uct (GDP). The national income and product located in the United States.
accounts (NIPA), or simply national accounts, are ■■ The next three lines take us from GDP to gross
organized around two decompositions of GDP. national product (GNP) (line 4). GNP is an alterna-
One decomposes GDP from the income side: Who tive measure of aggregate output. It is defined as the
receives what? market value of the goods and services produced by labor
The other decomposes GDP from the production side and property supplied by US residents.
(called the product side in the national accounts): What is
Until the 1990s, most countries used GNP rather
produced, and who buys it?
than GDP as the main measure of aggregate activity. The
emphasis in the US national accounts shifted from GNP to
The Income Side GDP in 1991. The difference between the two comes from
the distinction between “located in the United States” (used
Table A1-1 looks at the income side of GDP—who receives for GDP) and “supplied by US residents” (used for GNP).
what.
A-1
Apéndices
APÉNDICE 1 Una introducción a la La parte superior del cuadro (líneas 1 a 8) va del PIB al
Ingreso y Producto Nacional ingreso nacional: la suma de los ingresos recibidos por el
diferentes factores de producción:
Cuentas
Este apéndice presenta la estructura básica y los términos
■■El punto de partida, en la línea 1, es el producto
utilizados en las cuentas nacionales de ingreso y producto.
interno bruto.
La medida básica de la actividad agregada es el producto
interno bruto (PIB). Las cuentas nacionales de ingreso y producto (PIB). El PIB se define como elmercado.
valor de
producto (NIPA), o simplemente cuentas nacionales, se de los bienes y servicios producidos por el trabajo y la
organizan en torno a dos descomposiciones del PIB.
Se descompone el PIB desde el lado del ingreso: ¿Quién? propiedad
recibe que? ubicado en los Estados Unidos.
El otro descompone el PIB desde el lado de la producción ■■ Las siguientes tres líneas nos llevan del PIB al PIB
(llamado lado del producto en las cuentas nacionales):
¿Qué es bruto.
producido y quién lo compra? producto nacional (PNB) (línea 4). El PNB es una
alternativa
medida positiva de la producción agregada. Se define
El lado de los
como el
ingresos
El cuadro A1-1 analiza el lado de los ingresos del PIB:
Valor de mercado de los bienes y servicios producidos
quién recibe qué. por el trabajo.
y propiedades suministradas por residentes
estadounidenses.
Cuadro A1-1 PIB: El lado del ingreso, 2018 (miles de millones
de dólares) Hasta la década de 1990, la mayoría de los países
Del producto interior bruto a la renta nacional:
1Producto interno bruto (PIB) 20.49 utilizaban el PNB en lugar de
que
2Plus: Recibos de renta de factores del resto el PIB como
del mundo principal
4 medida de 1.07
la actividad agregada.
El énfasis en las cuentas nacionales de Estados Unidos
pasó
3Minus: Pagos de renta de factores al resto del PNB
del mundo al PIB en 1991. La diferencia
6- enentre ambos
proviene de la distinción entre “ubicados Estados
4Igual a: Producto Nacional Bruto (PNB) Unidos” (usado para el PIB) y “suministrados
20.75 (usado 815 por
residentes de Estados Unidos” para el PNB).
5Minus: Consumo de capital fijo 5 -3,273
6Igual a: Producto Nacional Neto (PNN) 17.48
7Minus: discrepancia estadística 1 -62
8Igual a: Renta nacional Descomposición de la renta nacional: 17.54
9Impuestos indirectos 4
10Remuneración de los empleados 1.429
11 Sueldos y salarios 10.85
12Suplementos a sueldos y salarios 6 8.83
13Beneficios de las empresas y transmisiones de empresas 4
14Interés neto 2.26 2.02
15Ingresos de los propietarios 3 1
16Rentas por alquiler de personas 577
1.57
Fuente: Encuesta de Negocios , abril de 2019, tablas 1-7-5 y 1- 9
Actuales 12 760
A-1
For example, profit from a US-owned plant in Japan is not for social insurance (by far the largest item) to such
included in US GDP, but is included in US GNP. exotic items as employer contributions to marriage fees
To go from GDP to GNP, we must first add receipts for justices of the peace.
of factor income from the rest of the world, which is ■■ Corporate profits and business transfers
income from US capital or US residents abroad (line 2), (line 13). Profits are revenues minus costs (including
then subtract payments of factor income to the rest of interest payments) and minus depreciation. (Business
the world, which is income received by foreign capital transfers, which account for $159 billion out of
and foreign residents in the United States (line 3). $2,263 billion, are items such as liability payments for
In 2018, payments from the rest of the world exceeded personal injury and corporate contributions to non-
receipts to the rest of the world by $261 billion, so GNP profit organizations.)
was ■■ Net interest (line 14) is the interest paid by firms
larger than GDP by $261 billion. minus the interest received by firms, plus inter-
■■The next step takes us from GNP to net national est received from the rest of the world minus inter-
est paid to the rest of the world. In 2018, most of
product (NNP) (line 6). The difference between GNP net interest represented net interest paid by firms:
and NNP is the depreciation of capital, called con- The United States received about as much in inter-
sumption of fixed capital in the national accounts. est from the rest of the world as it paid to the
■■ Finally, lines 7 and 8 take us from NNP to national rest to the world. So the sum of corporate profits
income (line 8). National income is defined as the plus net interest paid by firms was approximately
income that originates in the production of goods and ser- $2,263 billion+$577 billion=$2,840 billion
vices supplied by residents of the United States. In theory, or about 16% of national income.
national income and NNP should be equal. In practice, ■■ Proprietors’ income (line 15) is the income received
they typically differ, because they are constructed in by persons who are self-employed. It is defined as the
different ways. income of sole proprietorships, partnerships, and tax-
exempt cooperatives.
NNP is constructed from the top down, starting from
GDP and going through the steps shown in Table A1-1. ■■ Rental income of persons (line 16) is the income
National income is constructed instead from the bottom up, from the rental of real property, minus depreciation on
by adding the different components of factor income (com- this real property. Houses produce housing services;
pensation of employees, corporate profits, and so on). If rental income measures the income received for these
services.
we If the national accounts counted only actual rents,
could measure everything exactly, the two measures rental income would depend on the proportion of
should
be equal. In practice, the two measures differ, and the apartments and houses that were rented versus those
that were owner occupied. For example, if everybody
differ- became the owner of the apartment or the house in
ence between the two is called the statistical discrepancy. which he or she lived, rental income would go to zero,
In
2018, national income computed from the bottom up (the and thus measured GDP would drop. To avoid this
number in line 8) was larger than the NNP computed from problem, national accounts treat houses and apart-
the top down (the number in line 6) by $62 billion. The ments as if they were all rented out. So, rental income
statistical discrepancy is a useful reminder of the statisti- is constructed as actual rents plus imputed rents on
cal problems involved in constructing the national income houses and apartments that are owner occupied.
accounts. Although $62 billion seems like a large error, as a Before we move to the product side, Table A1-2 shows how
percentage of GDP, it is about 0.3 percentage point. we can go from national income to personal disposable
The bottom part of the table (lines 9–15) decomposes income, which is the income available to persons after they
national income into different types of income. have received transfers and paid taxes.
■■Indirect taxes (line 9). Some of the national income ■■ Not all national income (line 1) is distributed to
goes directly to the state in the form of sales taxes. persons.
(Indirect taxes are just another name for sales taxes.) Some of the income goes to the state in the form of
The rest of national income goes either to employ-
ees or to firms: indirect taxes, so the first step is to subtract indirect taxes.
■■ Compensation of employees (line 10), or labor
(Line 2 in Table A1-2 is equal to line 9 in Table A1-1.)
income, is what goes to employees. It is the largest com-
ponent of national income, accounting for 61% of
national income. Labor income is the sum of wages and
salaries (line 11) and of supplements to wages and sala-
ries (line 12). These rangeAn Introduction
from to the National Income and Product Accounts
employer contributions A-2
Por ejemplo, las ganancias de una planta de propiedad para el seguro social (con mucho, el rubro más importante)
estadounidense en Japón no se incluyen en el PIB hasta artículos tan exóticos como las contribuciones de los
estadounidense, pero sí en el PNB estadounidense. empleadores a los honorarios matrimoniales
Para pasar del PIB al PNB, primero debemos sumar los para los jueces de paz.
ingresos ■■ Utilidades corporativas y transferencias de negocios
del ingreso de factores del resto del mundo, que son (línea 13). Las ganancias son los ingresos menos los costos
ingresos del capital estadounidense o de residentes (incluidos los pagos de intereses) y menos la depreciación.
estadounidenses en el extranjero (línea 2), luego reste (Las transferencias comerciales, que representan 159.000
los pagos de ingresos de factores al resto del mundo, millones de dólares de un total de 2.263.000 millones de
que son ingresos recibidos por capital extranjero y dólares, son partidas como pagos de obligaciones por
residentes extranjeros en el país. Estados Unidos (línea lesiones personales y contribuciones corporativas a
3). entidades no
En 2018, los pagos del resto del mundo superaron los organizaciones con fines de lucro.)
ingresos al resto del mundo en 261 mil millones de dólares, ■■ El interés neto (línea 14) es el interés pagado por las
por lo que el PNB fue empresas.
mayor que el PIB en 261 mil millones de dólares. menos los intereses recibidos por las empresas, más el
■■El siguiente paso nos lleva del PNB al nivel nacional interés
est recibido del resto del mundo menos intereses
est pagado al resto del mundo. En 2018, la mayor parte de
neto. los intereses netos representaron intereses netos pagados
producto (NNP) (línea 6). La diferencia entre el PNB por las empresas:
y NNP es la depreciación del capital, llamada con- Estados Unidos recibió aproximadamente la misma cantidad
consumo de capital fijo en las cuentas nacionales. en
■■ Finalmente, las líneas 7 y 8 nos llevan desde PNN est del resto del mundo como pag al resto del mundo.
Entonces, la suma de las ganancias corporativas más los
hasta nacional intereses netos pagados por las empresas fue
ingresos (línea 8). El ingreso nacional se define como el aproximadamente
ingresos que se originan en la producción de bienes y
$2,263 mil millones+$577 mil millones=$2,840 mil
servicios. millones
vicios suministrados por residentes de los Estados o alrededor del 16% del ingreso nacional.
EnUnidos.
teoria,
el ingreso nacional y el PNN deben ser iguales. En la
■■ Ingreso de los propietarios (línea 15) es el ingreso
recibido
práctica, normalmente difieren porque están construidos por personas que trabajan por cuenta propia. Se define
como el
en ingresos de empresas unipersonales, sociedades y
entidades tributarias.
diferentes caminos.
cooperativas exentas.
El PNN se construye de arriba hacia abajo, comenzando ■■ Ingreso por alquiler de personas (línea 16) es el ingreso
del alquiler de bienes inmuebles, menos la depreciación de
desde
PIB y siguiendo los pasos que se muestran en la Tabla estos bienes inmuebles. Las casas producen servicios de
A1-1. vivienda;
En cambio, el ingreso nacional se construye desde abajo Los ingresos por alquiler miden los ingresos recibidos por
hacia arriba, sumando los diferentes componentes del estos
servicios.
ingreso de los factores (componentes).
Si las cuentas nacionales contabilizaran sólo los alquileres
remuneración de los empleados, beneficios empresariales, reales, los ingresos por alquiler dependerían de la
etc.). Si pudiéramos medir todo exactamente, las dos proporción de apartamentos y casas alquilados frente a los
ocupados por sus propietarios. Por ejemplo, si todo el
medidas deberían ser iguales. En la práctica, las dos
mundo se convirtiera en propietario del apartamento o de la
medidas difieren, y las diferencias casa en la que vive, los ingresos por alquiler llegarían a cero
La diferencia entre los dos se llama discrepancia
estadística. En y, por tanto, el PIB medido caería. Para evitar esto
En 2018, el ingreso nacional calculado de abajo hacia problema, las cuentas nacionales tratan las casas y
apartamentos
arriba (el número de la línea 8) fue mayor que el PNN mentos como si estuvieran todos alquilados. Así, los
calculado de arriba hacia abajo (el número de la línea 6) en ingresos por alquiler se construyen como los alquileres
Introducción a las cuentas nacionales de ingreso y reales
producto A-
más los alquileres imputados sobre
$62 mil millones. La discrepancia estadística es un
casas y apartamentos ocupados por sus propietarios. 2
recordatorio útil de las estadísticas.
Antes de pasar al lado del producto, el cuadro A1-2 muestra
Table A1-2 From National Income to Personal Disposable Income,
2018 (billions of dollars)
Some of the corporate profits are retained by firms. Some Owners of a house are assumed to consume housing
of the interest payments by firms go to banks or go abroad. services for a price equal to the imputed rental income
So the second step is to subtract all corporate profits and of that house.
business transfers (line 3—equal to line 13 in Table A1-1) Consumption is disaggregated into three components:
and all net interest payments (line 4—equal to line 14 in purchases of durable goods (line 3), nondurable
Table A1-1), and add back all income from assets goods (line 4), and services (line 5). Durable goods are
(dividends and interest payments) received by persons commodities that can be stored and have an average life
(line 5). of at least three years; automobile purchases are the larg-
■■People receive income not only from production but est item here. Nondurable goods are commodities that
can be stored but have an average life of less than three
also from public transfers (line 6). Transfers accounted years. Services are commodities that cannot be stored
for $2,980 billion in 2018. From these transfers must and must be consumed at the place and time of purchase.
be subtracted personal contributions for social insur-
ance, $1,361 billion (line 7).
■■Investment, called gross private domestic fixed
■■ The net result of these adjustments is personal
income,
investment (line 6), is the sum of two very different
components.
the income actually received by persons (line 8). Nonresidential investment (line 7) is the pur-
Personal disposable income (line 10) is equal to chase of new capital goods by firms. These may be
personal income minus personal tax and nontax pay- either structures (line 8)—mostly new plants—
ments (line 9). In 2018, personal disposable income was or equipment and software (line 9)—such as
$15,532 billion, or about 75% of GDP. machines, computers, or office equipment.
Residential investment (line 10) is the purchase
The Product Side of new houses or apartments by persons.
Table A1-3 looks at the product side of the national ■■ Government purchases (line 11) equal the
accounts—what is produced, and who buys it. purchases of goods by the government plus the
Start with the three components of domestic demand: compensation of government employees. (The govern-
consumption, investment, and government spending. ment is thought of as buying the services of the gov-
■■Consumption, called personal consumption expen- ernment employees.)
ditures (line 2), is by far the largest component of Government purchases equal the sum of purchases
demand. It is defined as the sum of goods and services pur- by the federal government (line 12), which themselves
chased by persons resident in the United States. can be disaggregated between spending on national
In the same way that national accounts include defense (line 13) and nondefense spending (line 14), and
imputed rental income on the income side, they include purchases by state and local governments (line 15).
imputed housing services as part of consumption.
A-3 Appendix 1
Tabla A1-2 Del ingreso nacional al ingreso personal disponible,
2018 (miles de millones de dólares)
8 17.58 1
2
9 -2.050
1 15.53
0 2
Fuente: Encuesta de Negocios , abril de 2019, tablas 1-7-5, 1-12 y 2-1
Actuales
Algunas de las ganancias corporativas son retenidas por las Se supone que los propietarios de una casa consumen
empresas. Alguno servicios de vivienda por un precio igual al ingreso por
de los pagos de intereses de las empresas van a los bancos alquiler imputado.
o al extranjero. Entonces, el segundo paso es restar todas de esa casa.
las ganancias corporativas y transferencias comerciales El consumo se desagrega en tres componentes: compras
(línea 3, igual a la línea 13 en la Tabla A1-1) y todos los de bienes duraderos (línea 3), bienes no duraderos (línea 4)
pagos de intereses netos (línea 4, igual a la línea 14 en la y servicios (línea 5). Los bienes duraderos son productos
Tabla A1-1), y volver a sumar todos los ingresos básicos que se pueden almacenar y tienen una vida media
provenientes de activos (dividendos y pagos de intereses) de al menos tres años; Las compras de automóviles son las
recibidos por personas (línea 5). más importantes.
■■La gente recibe ingresos no sólo de la producción sino artículo más importante aquí. Los bienes no duraderos son
productos que se pueden almacenar pero que tienen una
vida útil promedio de menos de tres años. Los servicios son
también productos básicos que no se pueden almacenar y deben
también
transferencias de transferencias
representaron $2,980 públicas
mil las (línea
millones en6). Las
2018. consumirse en el lugar y momento de la compra.
A estas transferencias haypersonales
que restarles
ance, $1,361 mil millones (línea 7).
para elcontribuciones
seguro social. ■■Inversión, denominada inversión fija interna privada
■■ El resultado neto de estos ajustes es el ingreso
personal,
bruta
inversión (línea 6), es la suma de dos muy diferentes
el ingreso realmente recibido por las personas (línea 8).
componentes.
El ingreso personal disponible (línea 10) es igual a La inversión no residencial (línea 7) es la inversión
ingreso personal menos impuestos personales y pagos no
El lado del búsqueda de nuevos bienes de capital por parte de las
El cuadro A1-3 analiza el lado del producto de lastributarios
producto cuentas empresas. Estas pueden ser estructuras (línea 8), en su
mentos (línea 9). En 2018, la renta personal disponible fue
nacionales: qué se produce y quién lo compra.
15.532 mil millones
Comencemos delos
con dólares, o aproximadamente
tres componentes el
de la demanda mayoría plantas nuevas,
Note that government purchases do not include purchases, in which case firms are accumulating
transfers from the government or interest payments on inventories. The last line of Table A1-3 gives the
government debt. These do not correspond to purchases of change in business inventories (line 19), also
either goods or services and so are not included here. This sometimes called (rather misleadingly) “inventory
means that the number for government purchases shown investment.” It is defined as the change in the vol-
in Table A1-3 is substantially smaller than the number we ume of inventories held by businesses. The change in
typically hear for government spending, which includes business inventories can be positive or negative. In
transfers and interest payments. 2014, it was small and positive; US production was
■■The sum of consumption, investment, and govern- higher than total purchases of US goods by $56
billion.
ment purchases gives the demand for goods by US
firms, US persons, and the US government. If the
United States were a closed economy, this would be the
same as the demand for US goods. But because the US The Federal Government in the
economy is open, the two numbers are different. To get National Income Accounts
to the demand for US goods, we must make two adjust-
Table A1-4 presents the basic numbers describing fed- eral
ments. First, we must add the foreign purchases of US
government economic activity in 2018, using NIPA
goods, exports (line 17). Second, we must subtract
numbers. (The numbers are sometimes presented using
US purchases of foreign goods, imports (line 18). fiscal rather than calendar years. The reason for doing so is
In 2014, exports were smaller than imports by $625 bil- that budget projections are typically framed in terms of
lion. Thus, net exports (or, equivalently, the trade bal- fiscal year rather than calendar year numbers. The fiscal
ance), was equal to -$625 billion (line 16). year runs from October 1 of the previous calendar year to
■■ Adding consumption, investment, government pur- September 30 of the current calendar year.)
chases, and net exports gives the total purchases of The reason for using the NIPA numbers rather than
US goods. Production may, however, be less than the official budget numbers is that they are economically
purchases if firms satisfy the difference by decreas- more meaningful—they are a better representation of
ing inventories. Or production may be greater than what the government is doing in the economy than the
1 Revenues 3,500
2 Personal taxes 1,614
3 Corporate profit taxes 158
4 Indirect taxes 160
5 Social insurance contributions 1,345
6 Other 223
7 Expenditures, excluding net interest payments 3,937
8 Consumption expenditures 1,032
9 Defense 77
10 Nondefense 8
11 Transfers to persons 2,180 25
12 Grants to state/local governments 578 4
13 Other 147
14 Primary balance (+ sign: surplus, – sign: deficit) -437
15 Net interest payments 545
16 Real interest payments 25
17 Inflation component 8
18 Official surplus: (1) minus (7) minus (15) - 98 28
19 Inflation-adjusted surplus: (18) plus (17) -2 7
69
Source: Survey of Current Business, April 2019, Table 3-2. Inflation adjustment calculated using
debt from Table B-45, Economic Report of the President.
5
numbers presented in the various budget documents. Bud- We know, however, that this measure is incorrect (see the
get numbers presented by the government need not follow Focus Box “Inflation Accounting and the Measurement of
the national income accounting conventions and some- Deficits” in Chapter 22). It is appropriate to correct the
times involve creative accounting. official deficit measure for the role of inflation in reducing
In 2018, federal revenues were $3,500 billion (line 1). the real value of the public debt. The correct measure, the
Of those, personal taxes (also called income taxes) inflation-adjusted deficit—the sum of the official defi- cit
account- ed for $1,614 billion, or 46% of revenues; social plus real interest payments—was $695 billion (line 19), or
insur- ance contributions (also called payroll taxes) 3.4% of GDP.
accounted for $1,345 billion, or 38% of revenues.
Expenditures excluding interest payments but includ-
ing transfer payments to individuals were $3,937 billion Warning
(line 7). Consumption expenditures (mostly wages and National accounts give an internally consistent descrip-
salaries of public employees and depreciation of capital) tion of aggregate activity. But underlying these accounts
accounted for $1,032 billion, or 26% of expenditures. are many choices of what to include and what not to
Excluding defense, consumption expenditures were only include, where to put some types of income or spending,
$254 billion. Transfers to persons (also called entitle- and so on. Here are five examples.
ment programs, mostly unemployment, retirement, and
health benefits) were a much larger $2,180 billion. ■■Work within the home is not counted in GDP. If, for
The federal government was therefore running a primary example, two neighbors decide to babysit each oth-
deficit of $437 billion (line 1 minus line 7, here recorded as er’s child and pay each other for the babysitting ser-
a vices, measured GDP will go up, whereas true GDP
negative value of the primary balance in line 14). clearly does not change. The solution would be to
Net interest payments on the debt held by the public count work within the home in GDP, just as rents are
totaled $545 billion (line 15). The official deficit was imputed for owner-occupied housing. But, so far, this
therefore equal to $982 billion (line 14 plus line 15). has not been done.
A-5 Appendix 1
Cuadro A1-4 Ingresos y gastos del presupuesto federal de EE. UU., 2018 (miles
de millones de
dólares)
1 Ingresos Impuestos personales Impuestos 3.50
2 sobre las ganancias corporativas Impuestos 0 1.61
3 indirectos Contribuciones al seguro social Otros 4
4 Gastos, excluidos los pagos de intereses netos 158
5 Gastos de consumo Defensa No defensa 160
6 Transferencias a personas Subvenciones a 1.34
7 gobiernos estatales/locales Otros 3.93 5
8 Saldo primario (signo +: superávit, – signo: 7 223
1.03
9 déficit) Pagos netos de intereses 2 77
1 Pagos de intereses reales Componente de 8
0 inflación Superávit oficial: (1) menos (7) menos 2.18 25
1 (15) Superávit ajustado por inflación: (18) más 0 4
1 (17) 578
1 -437 147
2 545
1 25
3 8
1 - 98 28
4 -2 7
1
Fuente: Encuesta de Negocios Actuales, abril de 2019, Tabla 3-2. Ajuste69
por inflación calculado
utilizando
5 deuda del Cuadro B-45, Informe Económico del Presidente.
5
1
6
cifras presentadas en los distintos documentos Sin embargo, sabemos que esta medida es incorrecta
presupuestarios. Las 1 cifras presupuestarias presentadas (consulte el recuadro de enfoque “Contabilidad de la
por el gobierno no7 necesitan seguir las convenciones de inflación y medición de los déficits” en el Capítulo 22). Es
contabilidad del ingreso
1 nacional y, a veces, implican una apropiado corregir la medida oficial del déficit por el papel
contabilidad creativa.
8
de la inflación en la reducción del valor real de la deuda
En 2018, los ingresos federales fueron de $3,5 billones pública. La medida correcta, el déficit ajustado a la
1
(línea 1). inflación –la suma del déficit oficial más los pagos de
9
De ellos, los impuestos personales (también llamados intereses reales– fue de 695.000 millones de dólares
impuestos sobre la renta) representaron 1.614 millones (línea 19), o 3,4% del PIB.
de dólares, o el 46% de los ingresos; las contribuciones al
seguro social (también llamadas impuestos sobre la Adverte
nómina) representaron 1.345 millones de dólares, o el
38% de los ingresos.
ncia
Las cuentas nacionales dan una descripción internamente
coherente.
Gastos excluyendo pagos de intereses pero incluyendo ción de la actividad agregada. Pero detrás de estas cuentas
Los pagos de transferencias a personas físicas hay muchas opciones sobre qué incluir y qué no incluir,
ascendieron a $3,937 mil millones (línea 7). Los gastos dónde colocar algunos tipos de ingresos o gastos, etc. Aquí
de consumo (principalmente sueldos y salarios de los hay cinco ejemplos.
empleados públicos y depreciación del capital)
representaron 1.032 millones de dólares, o el 26% de los ■■El trabajo dentro del hogar no se cuenta en el PIB. Si
gastos. Excluyendo la defensa, los gastos de consumo
fueron sólo de 254 mil millones de dólares. Las por
transferencias a las personas (también llamadas Por ejemplo, dos vecinos deciden cuidarse
mutuamente.
programas de prestaciones sociales, principalmente
hijo de una trabajadora y se pagan entre sí por el servicio
prestaciones por desempleo, jubilación y salud)
ascendieron a 2.180 millones de dólares mucho más. de niñera.
Por lo tanto, el gobierno federal tenía un déficit primario de vicios, el real
PIB claramente
medido aumentará, mientras que el PIB
$437 mil millones (línea 1 menos línea 7, registrada aquí contabilizar el trabajo no cambia.
dentro La solución
del hogar en el PIB,sería
mismo modo que se imputan los alquileres
viviendas ocupadas por sus propietarios. Pero, a del
las
hasta
A-5 Apéndice 1 como un ahora, esto
valor negativo del saldo primario en la línea 14). no se ha hecho.
Los pagos netos de intereses sobre la deuda en poder
del público ascendieron a $545 mil millones (línea 15).
■■The purchase of a house is treated as an invest- Key Terms
ment, and housing services are then treated as part
of consumption. Contrast this with the treatment of ■ national income and product accounts (NIPA), A-1
automobiles. Despite the fact that they provide ser- ■ national accounts, A-1
vices for a long time—although not as long a time as ■ gross domestic product (GDP), A-1
houses do—purchases of automobiles are not treated ■ gross national product (GNP), A-1
as investment. They are treated as consumption and ■ receipts of factor income from the rest of the world,
appear in the national accounts only in the year in ■
A-2 payments of factor income to the rest of the
which they are bought. world, A-2 net national product (NNP), A-2
■■ Firms’ purchases of machines are treated as invest-
■
■
consumption of fixed capital, A-2
ment. The purchase of education is treated as con- national income, A-2
■
sumption of education services. But education is indirect taxes, A-2
■ compensation of employees, A-2
clearly in part an investment; people acquire educa-
tion in part to increase their future income. ■ corporate profits, A-2
■■ Many government purchases have to be valued in ■ net interest, A-2
the national accounts in the absence of a market ■ proprietors’ income, A-2
transaction. How do we value the work of teachers ■ rental income of persons, A-2
in teaching children to read when that transaction is ■ personal income, A-3
mandated by the state as part of compulsory educa- ■ personal disposable income, A-3
tion? The rule used is to value it at cost, so using the ■ personal consumption expenditures, A-3
salaries of teachers. durable goods, A-3
■■
■
The correct calculation of the government’s defi- ■ nondurable goods, A-3
cit (and debt) is a challenging task. Here is one ■ services, A-3
aspect of the problem: Suppose teachers are paid ■
gross private domestic fixed investment, A-3
partly with cash and partly with the promise of a nonresidential investment, A-3
■
future retirement pension. There is an important structures, A-3
■
sense that the pension is just like government debt equipment and software, A-3
■
(i.e., a future liability of taxpayers). However, these residential investment, A-3
■ government purchases, A-3
liabilities are not counted in the deficit measure in
Table A1-4 or in standard measures of public debt. ■ exports, A-4
Another problem lies in the treatment of private ■ imports, A-4
sector debt guarantees by federal or state govern- ■ net exports, A-4
ment. Should such contingent liabilities be counted ■ trade balance, A-4
as part of public debt? ■ changes in business inventories, A-4
■ transfers to persons, A-5
The list could go on. However, the point of these ex- primary surplus, A-5
■
amples is not to make you conclude that national accounts ■ official deficit, A-5
are wrong. Most of the accounting decisions you just saw ■ inflation-adjusted deficit, A-5
were made for good reasons, often because of data avail- ■
ability or for simplicity. The point is that to use national
■
accounts best, you should understand their logic, but also
■
understand the choices that have been made and thus their
limitations. Further Readings
■
■
For more details, read “A Guide to the National Income
■
and Product Accounts of the United States,” May 2019
■
(www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf).
■
■
■
■
■
■
■
■
■
■
■
An Introduction to the National Income and Product Accounts A-6
■
■
■
■■La compra de una casa se trata como una inversión y Términos
los servicios de vivienda se tratan entonces como parte
de consumo. Compare esto con el tratamiento de los clave
∎ cuentas nacionales de ingreso y producto (NIPA), A-1
automóviles. A pesar de que brindan servicios ∎ cuentas nacionales, A-1 producto interno bruto (PIB),
vicios durante mucho tiempo (aunque no tanto como las ∎ A-1 producto nacional bruto (PNB), A-1
casas), las compras de automóviles no se consideran ∎ ingresos de renta de factores del resto del mundo, A-
inversiones. Se tratan como consumo y aparecen en las ∎ 2 pagos de renta de factores al resto del mundo, A-2
cuentas nacionales sólo en el año en ∎
producto nacional neto (PNN), A-2
que se compran. consumo de capital fijo, A-2 renta nacional, A-2
■■ Las compras de máquinas por parte de las empresas
∎
∎
impuestos indirectos, A-2 remuneración de los
se tratan como inversión. La compra de educación se trata asalariados, A-2 beneficios empresariales, A-2
∎
como consumo de servicios educativos. Pero la educación intereses netos, A-2 renta de los propietarios, A-2
∎ rentas de personas , A-2 ingreso personal, A-3
es claramente en parte una inversión; las personas
adquieren educación ∎ ingreso personal disponible, A-3 gastos de consumo
ción en parte para aumentar sus ingresos futuros. ∎ personal, A-3 bienes duraderos, A-3 bienes no
■■ Muchas compras gubernamentales deben valorarse ∎ duraderos, A-3 servicios, A-3 inversión fija interna
en las cuentas nacionales en ausencia de una transacción ∎ privada bruta, A-3 inversión no residencial, A-3
de mercado. ¿Cómo valoramos el trabajo de los docentes? ∎ estructuras, A-3 equipos y software, A-3 inversión
en enseñar a los niños a leer cuando esa transacción es ∎ residencial, A-3 compras gubernamentales, A-3
ordenada por el estado como parte de la educación ∎ exportaciones, A-4 importaciones, A-4
obligatoria. ∎ exportaciones netas, A-4 balanza comercial, A -4
ción? La regla utilizada es valorarlo al costo, por lo que ∎ variación de inventarios empresariales, A-4
utilizando el ∎ transferencias a personas, A-5 superávit primario, A-
salarios de los docentes. 5 déficit oficial, A-5 déficit ajustado por inflación, A-
■■ El cálculo correcto del déficit (y la deuda) del gobierno
∎
∎
5
es una tarea desafiante. He aquí un aspecto del problema:
∎
supongamos que a los profesores se les paga en parte en
∎
efectivo y en parte con la promesa de una futura pensión
∎
de jubilación. Existe una importante sensación de que la
pensión es como la deuda pública. ∎
(es decir, una obligación futura de los contribuyentes). ∎
Sin embargo, estos pasivos no se cuentan en la medida ∎
del déficit del Cuadro A1-4 ni en las medidas estándar de ∎
la deuda pública. Otro problema radica en el tratamiento ∎
de las garantías de deuda del sector privado por parte del ∎
gobierno federal o estatal. ¿Deberían contabilizarse ∎
dichos pasivos contingentes? ∎
como parte de la deuda pública? ∎
La lista podría seguir. Sin embargo, el punto de estos ex- ∎
∎
Los ejemplos
cuentas no pretenden
nacionales están hacernos concluir que las
decisiones
buenas contables
razones, a que equivocadas.
menudo acaba deaver
debido la
La tomaron
se mayoría de las
por
disponibilidad de
∎
datos. Lecturas
∎
habilidad o por simplicidad. La cuestión es que para utilizar ∎
adicionales
Para
∎
obtener más detalles, lea “Una guía para las
mejor las cuentas nacionales es necesario comprender su cuentas nacionales de ingresos y productos de los
∎
Estados Unidos”, mayo de 2019
lógica, pero también las decisiones que se han tomado y, (www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf).
∎
∎
por ende, sus limitaciones.
∎
∎