Research in Transportation Business & Management 42 (2022) 100561

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Research in Transportation Business & Management

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/rtbm

Equity analysis in access to Public Transport through a Land Use Transport

Interaction Model. Application to Bucaramanga Metropolitan
Area-Colombia.
Jhair Manrique a, *, Ruben Cordera a, Emilio G. Moreno b, Borja Alonso Oreña a
a
GIST, Transportation Department, University of Cantabria, Avenida los Castros –, Santander 39005, Spain
b
GRINDIC, Civil Engineering Faculty, University Pontificia, Bolivariana, Kilometro 7 Vía Piedecuesta, 680002, Colombia

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: The development of the Bucaramanga Metropolitan Area (BMA) under criteria focused on the expansion of
Equity residential and commercial sectors without considering transportation has produced a congested network and an
Accessibility increase in illegal mobility. A solution was articulating the city through Metrolinea Integrated Transport System
Land-use
(MITS) that not represents an optimal solution yet. Users prefer long-lasting trips by car rather than using public
Transport model
Public transport
transportation. The absence of methods for assessing transportation deficiency in an agile manner more ac­
Infrastructure cording to dynamic changes does not allow taking optimal decisions promptly. This research proposes a meth­
Supply of transportation services odology that fuses a transport model using Visum software and a land-use model implemented in the Python
language to analyze access to public transportation, i.e., using four integrated sub-models: transport, residential
location, location of economic activities, and accessibility. Analysis of global equity using social indexes to
measure the level of need for service and infrastructure was key to proper territory modeling. Results not only
indicate where MITS is inefficient but also were could be useful to assess future behaviour considering socio-
economic variables, land use, and new infrastructure.

1. Introduction comfort than using public transport, which seems to be increasingly

The migration of people from rural areas to the cities has caused
rapid population growth, elevated density, and the highest employment
need. The land-use demand, and consequently mobility force urgent
implementation of a more sustainable urban and transport planning
encourages balanced growth. The Bucaramanga Metropolitan Area
(BMA) has an urban development typically determined by residential
and business use while planning for growth in infrastructure and
transportation has gone slower, and therefore in the opposite way to the
fundamental rule of urban sustainability that proposes a balance be­
tween components of mobility and land use according to Cordera, Ibeas,
Dell’Olio, and Alonso (2018). The planning entity of the BMA has
applied policies to try to articulate transport and territory to mitigate the
congestion impact by excessive private vehicle use. Thus, it is imple­
mented a bus system called Metrolinea Integrated Transport System (Bus
Rapid Transit, BRT) to improve public mode in front of car use. How­
ever, a large proportion of users prefer a long travel time with greater
inefficient (Ardila, 2019: Pineda, 2017).
The lack of planning and the absence of techniques that allow a quick
evaluation have so far generated solutions with limited effectiveness,
which motivated us for this research. Transport planning and manage­
ment should base on a set of techniques that allow a comprehensive and
dynamic assessment in the interaction with land use. Thus, it developed
a Land Use Transport Interaction model (LUTI) that incorporates four
sub-models: Transport Model (TM), Residential Location Model (RLM),
Economic Activities Location Model (EALM), and Accessibility In­
dicators Model (AIM). Used indexes such as the Public Transport Service
Index (PTSI) for measure horizontal equity, Public Transport Social
Needs Index (PTSNI) to vertical equity and the Gini Coefficient for
spatial accessibility analysis are keys. Results show an equity estimation
in the public transport provision taking into account both infrastructure
and social needs between different neighborhoods, which allowed
detecting population groups with the greatest needs and those that
experience oversupply of services.

* Corresponding author at: Carrera 28a No. 197, 16 Floridablanca, Santander, Colombia.
E-mail addresses: jmb574@alumnos.unican.es (J. Manrique), ruben.cordera@unican.es (R. Cordera), emilio.moreno@upb.edu.co (E.G. Moreno), borja.alonso@
unican.es (B.A. Oreña).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rtbm.2020.100561
Received 31 March 2020; Received in revised form 30 August 2020; Accepted 9 September 2020
Available online 22 September 2020
2210-5395/© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
J. Manrique et al. Research in Transportation Business & Management 42 (2022) 100561

Table 1
Inhabitants, populations groups, employments and amount of economic activ­
ities. Data source: (Dane, 2019)
Municipality Inhabitants Population Employments Amount of
groups economic
activities

Bucaramanga 543,574.00 17 327,853.00 35,868.00

Floridablanca 273,817.00 8 133,745.00 14,632.00
Girón 181,811.00 3 46,681.00 5107.00
Piedecuesta 161,042.00 3 30,392.00 3325.00
Total 1,160,244.00 31 538,671.00 58,932.00

In this research a new methodology is explored that try to explain

why and where there is a mismatch in public transport supply and de­
mand. This methodology has been based on a LUTI model and social
indexes that can represent current mobility patterns and will simulate
changes in the infrastructure or transport services in the future. The
detection of places where this mismatch in the transport service exists,
has allowed to propose mobility solutions, which could improve the
accessibility to opportunities of the citizens living in medium-sized cities
of Colombia and could be useful for other similar Latin American cities.

2. Literature review

Currie (2010) proposes a methodology to modeling and evaluating

the spatial equity of public transport considering supply and demand,
which helps to improve planning, and says that both indexes PTSI and
PTSNI allow a clear equity vision. Hernández & Witter (2011) define
horizontal equity as a balance between population density and public
transport service, and vertical equity as a balance between social needs
and supply of transport in each zone. The disparity between supply and
demand highlights the greatest transport need and those zones where
they have an oversupply. For a global vision of equity in the service
supplied by a massive transport system, the Gini coefficient and Lorenz
curve were used (Delbosc & Currie, 2011). Our spatial analysis based on
an interaction model between transport and land uses (LUTI) is adapted
and called BMA-LUTI. A model supported with the results obtained by Fig. 1. Municipalities, roads, bus stops and MITS’s network. Source: (Metro­
Cordera, Coppola, Ibeas, and Dell’Olio (2013), Barrett et al. (2002), linea, 2019).
John (2005), Salvini and Miller (2005), Strauch et al. (2005), Waddell
(2002) and Salas Olmedo, Wang, and Alonso (2017). Guzman, Gomez, previously that involves all sub-models and proposed social indexes.
and Rivera (2017) obtained useful results about social-economic aspects
and household’s mobility. Guzman, Oviedo, and Carlos (2017) said that
3.1. Selected geographic unit in the BMA and network of the MITS
Bogotá shares common characteristics with other Latin American cities
about its socioeconomic and productive structure. From its historic
The study area (BMA) located in Santander-Colombia has four Mu­
downtown, the city has expanded along transport corridors used for
nicipalities: Bucaramanga, Floridablanca, Girón, and Piedecuesta. The
trade and logistics, as well as emerging public transport systems by
whole territory has thirty-one population groups (communes) with
buses. This tendency was replicated for decades, resulting in the
1,160,244 inhabitants according to values of Table 1. The economic
expansion of the urban footprint and conurbation (both planned and
activities represent 58,932 locations and a total value of 538,671 em­
organic) with nearby municipalities, creating a functional metropolitan
ployments. Each population group has an internal network, see Fig. 1.
area. Jaramillo, Lizarraga, and Grindlay (2012) evaluate the influence of
Data on socioeconomic status and road parameters (class, capacity, and
transport infrastructure on spatial disparity present in the social needs of
speed), are taken from the Territorial Ordering Plan of each Munici­
transport and provision of public transportation in Santiago de Cali.
pality (de Bucaramanga, 2014; de Floridablanca, 2018; de Giron, 2010;
Litman (2002) found that horizontal equity requires each individual or
de Piedecuesta, 2017). MITS is a BRT system that allows traveling on a
similar group to have the same distribution of costs or benefits. Delmelle
segregated lane with some stretches in mixed traffic (Wright & Hook,
and Casas (2012) studied spatial equity based on accessibility patterns.
2007), it involves four trunk routes, ten main routes, 20 collector routes,
As it can be seen, a proper model to BMA as a medium-sized city has not
14 complementary routes, and 977 bus stops, in general.
been widely studied previously in Colombia, i.e., a BMA-LUTI model
that involves social indexes, public transport infrastructure, accessi­
bility, and equity. 3.2. Structure of the BMA-LUTI

3. Methodology It is considered an analysis of MITS with a LUTI model to simulate

In particular, a target is how we can interrelate four sub-models
using Visum software and Python programming language to achieve
dynamic and versatile modeling of mobility. A LUTI model adapted to
BMA as a medium-sized city in Colombia (BMA-LUTI) studied not
the operation of the urban system (Torrens, 2000). The model must be
able to represent a spatial organization of transport and human activities
in the metropolitan area (Lowry, 1964), i.e., reproduce and estimate the
mobility and residential location of the population and economic ac­
tivities. LUTI model can classify into three groups according to Cordera

2
J. Manrique et al.
Fig. 2. Operational structure of BMA-LUTI.
et al. (2018); a first-generation model based on spatial interaction theory
(Andrews, 1953; Wilson, 1970), on mathematical programming tech­
niques (Brotchie, Dickey, & Sharpe, 1980; Herbet & Stevens, 2006), and
input/output matrices (Echenique, 2011; Leontief, 1966); a second-
generation model based on random utility theory (McFadden, 1974)
and simulation of land use (Anas, 1983; Martinez, 1997); Or, a third-
generation model based on disaggregated models or micro-simulation
(Castiglione, Bradley, & Gliebe, 2015; Iacono, Levinson, & El-Geneidy,
2007).
The BMA-LUTI model based on both first and second-generation
techniques, under the premise of establishing a balance between the
four sub-models that compound it. That means if a change in land use
occurs, it affects the transportation system generating a new balance and
new representation of the urban system. This aspect makes that interact
with hypothetical scenarios to show possible effects. The operating
structure of the BMA-LUTI. All sub-models interact through a process of
iteration see Fig. 2. Some assumptions help simplify simulation limiting
or excluding secondary aspects (Cordera et al., 2013): it considered
closed territory where labor demand is satisfied by internal workers,
which avoids the simulation of immigration and emigration from the
neighboring populations; it assigned, a fixed location to the exporting
industries due they do not depend on population distribution or internal
demand of trade, from Territorial Ordering Plan. BMA-LUTI model
considered restrictions in terms of the resident population and activities.
These are relocated to the next preferred location if they exceed the
limits.
3.2.1. Transport model (TM)
The TM model based on previous developments has a strategic
structure typical four-stage (Ortuzar & Willumsen, 2011), i.e., trip
attraction-generation, trip distribution, modal choice, and trip assign­
ment. A first stage considers the concept of the trip cycle, i.e., a chain of
trips originated from home to a destination and respective return, called
home-based trip too (Jovicic & Hansen, 2003). Each household has an
input vector of socioeconomic data and mobility choices made by the
person. The Trips are modeled using linear regression and then
3
Research in Transportation Business & Management 42 (2022) 100561
expanded with the number of households in each population group. A
second stage constitutes a doubly bounded entropy maximization model
based on the analogy of the gravitational model (see Eq. 1).
( )
Tij = Ai Oi Bj Dj f Cij (1)
Where:Tij: trips between population groups i and j;Ai: balancing factor in
population group i;Oi: trips originating from population group i;Bj:
balancing factor in population group j;Dj: trips attracted from popula­
tion group j;f(Cij): cost function between population groups i and j.
The cost function can have different forms, among them, a combined
form, that you can see in Eq. 2 (Williams, 1976). The cost between
population groups is calculated by the compound cost using Eq. 3
(Williams, 1977), and this involves the generalized costs by mode (Eqs. 4
and 5).
( ) ( )
f Cij = a*Kijb *exp − β*Kij (2)
1 ∑ ( ( ))
Kij = ln exp − λ Cijn + δnij (3)
− λ n
Cijbus = Cost1 + θtb Ttp (4)
Cijcar = Cost2 + θtc Ttc (5)
Where:Kij: compound cost of the trip between population groups i and j;
a, b y β: calibration parameters of the cost function;λ, δ: calibration
parameters of the compound cost;Cn: generalized cost by mode;Cbus:
generalized cost in public transport;Ccar: generalized cost in private
transport;Cost1: value of trip transformed into minutes for public
transport;θtb: trip time parameter in public transport;Ttb: perceived trip
time; by vehicle, transfer, entry and exit, and waiting.Cost2: value pro­
portional to the travel distance for private transport (min);θtc: trip time
parameter in private transport;Ttc: trip time inside the vehicle.
The third stage depends on the data of each population group and the
Multinomial Logit Model (MNL) that determines the choice probability.
MNL distributed random residuals according to Gumbel distribution
J. Manrique et al. Research in Transportation Business & Management 42 (2022) 100561

(Domencich & McFadden, 1975). This aspect allows us to deduce the panies assign to each zone a utility and choose one that maximizes it.
model given in Eq. 6. The probability of location is Eq. (7), and systematic utility Eq. (8). The
model allows job distribution per population group and economic ac­
exp(− λ(Cn +δn ) )
Pn = ∑m (6) tivity a (commercial, services, and industry) according to Eq. (11).
(− λ(Ci +δi ) )
i=n exp
Joba (d) = Pa (d)*Jesa (11)
Where:Pn: probability of choosing a displacement mode n;λ: calibration
parameter;Cn y Cm: generalized cost of each mode;δny δm: modal penalty Where:Joba(d): number of jobs located in destination d belonging to the
of each mode. economic activity a;Pa(d): job probability per economic activity a in
The fourth stage consists of simulating the most used arcs of the destination d;Jesa: total jobs belonging to the economic activity a.
network by displacements generated between each origin-destination As the residential location model and economic activities depend on
pair, subsequently loading the flows, establishing the traffic condi­ each other, it formulated as an equilibrium problem:
tions, and passenger volume on the MITS routes per population group. [ ] [ ]
∑ ∑
Assignment simulated with Visum software. i
R =R i i
A ∀i A = A i
R (Real situation) (12)
i i

3.2.2. Residential location model (RLM) [ ] ] [

The RLM focus on the likelihood that a worker will choose his place ∑ ∑
i*
R =R i* i*
A ∀i A = A i*
R (Solution) (13)
of residence since he works in destination d, with a zone’s choice model i i
where worker maximizes their localization utility. The model is proba­
bilistic, allowing the evaluation of each population group according to Ri is a vector of inhabitants with socioeconomic status i and Ai is a vector
its socio-economic, environmental, and infrastructure attributes (Hsu & of total jobs for assigned socioeconomic status i. The equilibrium solu­
Guo, 2006). tion again is demonstrated using the conditions imposed by the
[ ] Brouwers theorem (Cascetta, 2001). Assumes Ri* and Ai* monotonously
exp U i (o|d)
Pires− job (o|d) = ∑i [ ] (7) and, the residential choice model becomes additive.
i
n exp U (o|d)

3.2.4. Accessibility indicators model (AIM)

Where:Pires− job(o| d): probability of residence in origin o, conditioned to
The AIM model connects the transport system and land use, where
work in destination d;Ui(o| d): systematic utility of each origin o.
the accessibility to participate in activities located elsewhere is an in­
The utility assumed in each population group can be broken down
dividual ability (Hansen, 1959), i.e., the way that activity reached from
into two parts: systematic or representative, measured directly by the
any place by a mode (Dalvi & Martin, 1976). An indicator based on
modeler and, a random one that follows a distribution Gumbel IID, this
location-based accessibility is used (Geurs & Van Wee, 2004), and two
utility is:
indicators more such as active accessibility, or access to activities since a
U i (o|d) = Vi (o|d) + εi (o|d) (8) specific zone (Cascetta, 2009); and passive accessibility or access to the
zone from anywhere. See Eqs. (14) and (15).
Where:Ui(o| d): systematic utility of each origin o;Vi(o| d): quantitative [ ( ]
∑
attributes of the population group and/or worker;εi(o| d): residues of the A(o) = exp α1 *Cost(o, di )*Job(di )α2 (14)
Gumbel distribution. i
Since the first model hypothesis assumes a study area closed, it is
possible to calculate the number of workers with economic status i living Where:A(o): active accessibility;Cost(o,di): trip cost between origin o
in origin o in the following way: and destination d;Job(di): number of jobs in the destination d;α1, α2:
∑ calibration parameters.
W i (o) = Pires− job (o|d)*J i (d) (9) [ ( ]
d ∑
A(d) = exp β1 *Cost(oi , d)*Pop(oi )β2 (15)
Where:Wi(o): number of workers with economic status i residing in i

origin o;Ji(d): number of jobs available in destination d for socioeco­

nomic status i.
Also, based on workers with economic status i each origin o, it is
possible to determine the population if we apply a coefficient that rep­
resents the relationship population and workers:
∑∑
P(o) = K(o)* W i (o) (10)
i d
Where:P(o): population in origin o;K(o): population-workers ratio in the
origin o;Wi(o): number of workers with economic status i residing in
origin o.
The relationship RLM between the population in one zone and the
jobs in others is supported in the basic theory of economics (Von Thü­
nen, 1826) and applied in multiple studies (Alonso, 1964; Putman,
1979; Simmonds, 1999; Marinez and Donoso, 2001) highlighting the
effect that has the jobs increase on the population within urban systems.
3.2.3. Economic activities location model (EALM)
The EALM structure is similar to the RLM, starting from the random
utility theory that simulates the decisions of the economic activities
location through discrete elections where it supposed that the com­
Where:A(d): passive accessibility;Cost(oi,d): trip cost between origin o
and destination d;Pop(oi): population in the origin o;β1, β2: calibration
parameters.
3.3. Supply equity evaluation of public transport services
The methodology has four analysis phases: public transport service,
public transport social needs, supply-demand disparity, and global
equity.
3.3.1. Public transport service index (PTSI)
The most efficient methodology formulated by Currie (2010) and
Delbosc and Currie (2011), makes it possible to determine the offer
using a topological accessibility index (Rodriguez, Comtois, & Slack,
2006), and Geurs and Van Wee (2004) say that it bases on infrastructure.
Analysis of public transport supply quantifies the infrastructure provi­
sion and route planning that different population need. A little index
defines a low transport supply and a big index high provision (Eq. 16).
n ( )
∑ Buffer(j)(i)
PTSI i = *SSj (16)
j=1
Areai

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J. Manrique et al. Research in Transportation Business & Management 42 (2022) 100561

Table 2
Adjustment of trip generation-attraction model (LMI: low-medium income; MI: medium income; HI: high income). Data source: Alcaldía de Bogotá (2011); Manrique
et al. (2019) and DANE (2019).
Generation model
Variable Coefficient Typical error t stadistic p-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
Constant − 0.54767918 0.08801934 − 6.22225925 1.39E-06 − 0.72860554 − 0.36675283
LMI/H 0.38340624 0.01526395 25.1184142 9.23E-20 0.35203074 0.41478174
MI/H 1.06881661 0.0172484 61.9661328 8.96E-30 1.03336202 1.10427121
HI/H 1.34945061 0.02189119 61.64354 1.03E-29 1.30445262 1.3944486
P/H 1.32414889 0.021444 61.7491561 9.81E-30 1.28007012 1.36822767
R2 adj. 0.996
F 1869.485567
n 31

Attraction model
Variable Coefficient Typical error t stadistic p-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
Constant 1.55471364 0.68550276 2.26799036 0.031237909 0.1505249 2.95890238
P/H 0.24774171 0.17510317 1.41483283 0.168143029 − 0.11094087 0.60642428
J/H 1.99770316 0.0177921 112.28035 1.03075E-38 1.96125769 2.03414862
R2 adj. 0.998
F 8237.339218
n 31

Where:PTSIi: public transport service index per stops group in influence 3.3.4. Global equity analysis
area i;Buffer(j)(i): influence radius of stop j in area i;Areai: total area of The previous indexes, serve to calculate the horizontal and vertical
population group i;SSj: service per stop j (the number of bus passes equity that represents a maximum or minimum value, comparatively:
through stops in a workday). (Ruiz et al., 2016)
DPi
HEi = (20)
3.3.2. Public transport social needs index (PTSNI) PTSI i
The PTSNI classifies populations where the infrastructure or service
is required, given a potential demand and a specific socioeconomic PTSNI i
VEi = (21)
profile. The role of transport in the social exclusion in different countries PTSI i
can be difficult to analyze since the administration does not provide
sufficient information on the needs of the unmet demand (McCray & Where:HEi: horizontal equity of population group i;VEi: vertical equity of
Brais, 2007). Thus, we see a method proposed by Currie (2004, 2010) population group i;DPi: density of population group i.
used in multiple studies. For example, Camporeale, Caggiani, and Population with high HE value has a better balance between popu­
Ottomanelli (2019) and Ruiz, Segui Pons, Llado, and Martinez (2016) lation density and public transportation service. A Low VE value rep­
based on a weighted multicriteria model with socioeconomic variables resents a population with a need for public transportation and lower
of the population (rate of workers, rate of low incomes, rate of economic service. Additionally, the Gini Coefficient (Delbosc & Currie, 2011) and
activities and, accessibility to the employment). Each variable is the Lorenz curve (Rodrigue, Comtois, & Slack, 2016) allow analyzing
assigned a weight in function to the greater social need for public global equity. Gini coefficient reflects the disparity in a range between
transport. See Eqs. (17) and (18). 0 and 1 (nothing and total). See Eq. (22).

∑
n ∑
n

PTSNI i = Wi *Xi (17) G = 1− (σ Y i− 1 + σY i ) + (σ X i− 1 + σ X i ) (22)

i=0
i=1

Variable value − Minimum value Where:G: global Gini coefficient;σ Y: accumulated percentage of PTSI;σ
Xi = (18) X: accumulated percentage of HE or VE.
Maximum value − Minimum value

Where:PTSNIi: public transport social needs index of population group i;
Xi: normalized value of the socioeconomic variable of population group
i;Wi: weight assigned to the normalized variable;n: number of socio­
economic variables to consider.
3.3.3. Supply-demand disparity index (SDDI)
PTSI quantifies the supply of public transport in terms of the number
of stops and route frequency, assigning a provisioning value that each
population has. The PTSNI quantifies the need for public transportation
that an area has from the inhabitants’ perspective. Both indexes should
be normalized to make subtraction between PTSNI and PTSI and thus
obtaining the Supply-Demand Disparity Index (SDDI). The indicator
helps to detect populations with low service.
SDDIi = PTSNI i − PTSI i
4. Calibration of LUTI model (BMA-LUTI)
Based on the socio-economic information, mobility, and location of
economic activities of the population groups, it is calibrated the four
submodels contemplated within the LUTI model. See above Table 1.
(Guzman, Oviedo, & Rivera, 2017) said that Bogotá shares common
characteristics with other Latin American cities about its socioeconomic
and productive structure. From its historic downtown, the city has
expanded along transport corridors used for trade and logistics, as well
as emerging public transport systems by buses. This tendency was
replicated in Bucaramanga, resulting in the expansion of the urban
settlements and conurbation with nearby municipalities, creating a
functional metropolitan area. These conditions allow us to consider
Bogota mobility data.
(19)

Where:SDDIi: supply-demand disparity index to population group i.
PTSNIi: public transport social needs index of population group i;PTSIi:
public transport service index per stops group in influence area i.
4.1. Calibration of transport model (TM)
In the absence of mobility surveys, trip generation-attraction models
from a database on weekday trips were estimated (Manrique, Jimenez,
& Salas, 2020) and household mobility surveys of Bogotá city (de

5
J. Manrique et al. Research in Transportation Business & Management 42 (2022) 100561

Table 3
Calibration parameters of trip distribution model.
Calibration parameter
a 0.00
b 5.73
β − 0.06
λ 0.007
δ Car 0 (INH); and dummy variable to know if a population is an urban center
δ Bus 139.9
Bogota, 2011). Home-based trip models (H) represent 91.2% of daily
mobility (Guzman, Gomez, & Rivera, 2015). Generation model has four
variables; low income (1 to 2 minimum monthly salary), low-medium (2
to 4 mms), medium (4 to 6 mms) and, high (>6 mms). People per
household (P/H) are the fourth variable, see Table 2. The attraction
model is in function to the people per household (P/H) and jobs per
household (J/H) variables, according to businesses/services of each
area. The trip distribution model in Eq. 1 requires the combined cost (Eq.
2) formulated with the calibration parameters showed in Table 3. Trips
generated and attracted by each population was calculated with average
household values. The average values used for the estimation model
mean less variability, which allowed an excellent correlation in the
goodness of fit.
These parameters represent the frequency distribution of trip times
in BMA. The cost function of the distribution model uses the compound
cost (Eq. 3) and each origin-destination cost considering the availability
of transport. The penalty by mode δ calculated through the Berkson-
Theil transform shows that exists a significant disutility in public
transport compared with the car. The generalized cost by car is US$ 0.14
per kilometer and US$ 0.024 per minute for the trip time (Marquez,
2013). The general cost by public transport of US$ 1.306 per trip is
constant for all destinations. A user inside the system can make all
transfers, and the cost of trip time is US$ 0.0174 per minute. These costs
shown were calculated based on 3200 COP per dollar.
4.2. Estimation of localization models (RLM and EALM)
For RLM, it is considered the socioeconomic status low, low-medium,
medium, and high income. Studied variables as perceived utility or trip-
time in minutes by mode from home to the job with congestion (JT);
active accessibility (AA); the price per square meter of housing ac­
cording to status (PM2); housings (H); and a dummy variable equal to 1
if a zone has a special prestige (SP). The utility function uses maximum
likelihood in the estimation. The disaggregated sample at an individual
choice level allows its segmentation into four social groups reducing the
error of aggregation, where the medium income is base of calculation.
The RLM model is consistent with the theoretical hypotheses; log-
likelihood of − 8717 bigger than the null model has the expected sign;
a negative JT for low and low-medium incomes indicates a preference to
live close workplace, contrary if the sign is positive. A negative PM2
parameter represents a preference for living in places with lower hous­
ing prices per square meter while a positive value more expensive.
EALM model estimated three economic activities: commercial, ser­
vice, and industrial this last has a fixed location. The systematic utility is
a linear combination of attributes such as passive accessibility (PA) that
depends on the trip time, and location (Eq. 14); jobs (JOB); inhabitants
(CEN). Estimation by maximum likelihood method allowed results ac­
cording to the hypothesis. Two different models, one for commercial
activities and another for services, were formulated. Both models pre­
sent a log-likelihood bigger than that of the null model. In the com­
mercial activities model, JOB, INH, and CEN variables were significant
(with 95% CL) except for PA with 90%. However, given theoretical
importance and role as a political variable is used in the model. The price
of a square meter of real estate in the area had a negative sign, i.e., the
majority owners prefer locating their business in areas of lower cost. In
the model for activities as services, all parameters were significant,
including passive accessibility. PM2 variable has a positive sign, which
means that for this type of business, areas influence the location with
high-incomes inhabitants, which is consistent with observed it. The
variable CEN in both cases presents the highest weight. Although this
calibration in the equity analysis of the current situation is not directly
applied, it would allow considering different planning scenarios. See
Table 4.
4.3. Calibration of the accessibility indicator model (AIM)
The parameters of the active and passive accessibility models per­
formed by linearizing Eqs. (13) and (14) use a logarithmic trans­
formation, and subsequently least squares. This process requires a
dependent variable assumed as an accessibility proxy variable. The MT
based on 2019 data from each population group, i.e., the generated-
attracted trips have a direct relationship with active and passive acces­
sibility. Many trips represent greater accessibility, and consider, cost
variables as the trip time between congested zones, jobs, and population.
See Table 5. The calibration of the cost parameter had a negative sign in
both cases, with a higher value in the case of passive accessibility, a fact
that is consistent with the theory, since work-related trips show, on
average, a lower impedance.
5. Global equity analysis of public transport
A transportation analysis was made with data provided by Visum
software and from MITS considering 977 stops and 44 routes; the ser­
vice, frequency on weekdays, and PTSI by population group with a
concentric influence area of 300 m in each stop. It is compared the
normalized values on a scale of 0 to 100 with the potential demand
indexes. The demand analysis made with the PTSNI index develops a

Table 4
Parameters for the RLM and EALM models. Data source: DANE (2019).
Low income Low-medium income Medium income High income Commercial Services

Variable Coeff. p-value Coeff. p-value Coeff. p-value Coeff. p-value Coeff. p-value Coeff. p-value

JT − 0.01181 0.0000 − 0.00946 0.0000 0.00421 0.0120

AA
PM2 − 0.00820 0.0000 − 0.00171 0.0000 0.00241 0.0000 − 0.0001 0.0000 5.966E-05 0.0070
H 0.175E-04 0.0010 0.175E-04 0.0010 0.175E-04 0.0000 0.175E-04 0.0010
SP 1.29090 0.0000 1.2909 0.0000 1.29090 0.0000 1.29118 0.0000
PA 1.215E-06 0.4460 2.381E-05 0.0000
JOB 0.325E-04 0.0000 2.571E-05 0.0000
INH 4.675E-06 0.0000 9.672E-06 0.0000
CEN 0.64883 0.0000 0.80724 0.0000
Log (θ) − 8717 − 16,644 − 11,140
Log (0) − 10,929 − 18,833 − 12,797
n 3183 5504 3742

6
J. Manrique et al. Research in Transportation Business & Management 42 (2022) 100561

Table 5
Accessibility Indicators Model parameters. Data source: (Dane, 2019).
Active accessibility model
Variable Coefficient p-value Error t statistic Lower 95% Upper 95%
Ln (Job) 0.98400 0.00000 0,01063 92.53595 0.96291 1.00463
Cost − 0.01500 0.00000 0,00069 − 21.82472 − 0.01644 − 0.01373
R2 adj. 0.979
F 23,188.33065
n 930

Passive accessibility model

Variable Coefficient p-value Error t statistic Lower 95% Upper 95%
Ln (Pop) 0.87600 0.00000 0.01041 84.09542 0.85541 0.89629
Cost − 0.01750 0.00000 0.00079 − 22.17150 − 0.01903 − 0.01593
R2 adj. 0.977
F 21,056.08032
n 930

Job: number of jobs in destine; Pop: population in origin; Cost: cost between population groups.

Table 6
Transport demand, provision and disparity indicators by zone.
PG PTSNI PTSI SDDI PG PTSNI PTSI SDDI

1 80.91 15.94 64.97 17 35.66 10.40 25.26

2 68.30 33.84 34.46 18 28.72 55.56 − 26.84
3 27.97 74.30 − 46.33 19 0.00 27.49 − 27.49
4 31.73 14.21 17.52 20 30.70 22.63 8.07
5 39.19 15.64 23.55 21 100.00 73.99 26.01
6 24.96 56.40 − 31.44 22 32.57 36.05 − 3.48
7 36.69 23.74 12.95 23 33.23 57.80 − 24.57
8 54.04 6.59 47.45 24 36.91 37.28 − 0.37
9 33.60 50.15 − 16.55 25 62.40 28.04 34.36
10 36.04 92.51 − 56.47 26 41.87 0.00 41.87
11 37.15 76.86 − 39.72 27 45.44 5.50 39.94
12 15.19 60.82 − 45.63 28 43.07 1.53 41.54
13 11.66 75.71 − 64.05 29 47.13 90.52 − 43.38
14 61.72 12.71 49.01 30 43.12 100.00 − 56.88
15 2.32 50.02 − 47.70 31 47.39 5.75 41.64
16 30.37 26.25 4.12
Total 1220.,03 1238.20 - 18.16
Average 39.36 39.94 − 0.59
Max. 100,00 100.00 64.97
Min. 0.00 0.00 - 64.05
Std. Dev. 20.30 29.22 37.81

PG: population groups.

weighted multi-criterion using the analytical hierarchies process (AHP),
according to Saaty (1995). The compared variables in pairs are the
worker’s rate, low-income rate, economic activity rate, and the acces­
sibility to employment. The assessment through a team of six experts
using the AHP and template proposed by Goepel (2013) obtain 49.8%
low incomes, 21.9% accessibility to the job, 20.2% of workers and, 8%
of economic activities. The values can be compared with other indexes if
these are normalized. An inverse value used to measure accessibility to
employment and activities can represent less public transportation de­
mand if the value is high, in other words, areas with much trade and job
accessibility have a lower public transportation demand. See Table 6.
Fig. 3 shows the population distribution in the BMA; Ciudadela,
Nororiental, Morrorico, Caldas Reposo, Valencia, Bucarica and Lagos,
are areas that stand out for population with purely residential use and a
low incomes people. The most commercial areas are Centro, Cabecera
del Llano, La Concordia, Cañaveral, and the old downtown of Piede­
cuesta, presenting less population density, which implies that people
reside far from their workplace in general. The PTSI index in Fig. 4
identifies the population with high services such as San Francisco, Ori­
ental, Cabecera del Llano, and Provenza in Bucaramanga. While the
Caldas Reposo population in Floridablanca, and Central, and Northern
areas of Piedecuesta and Girón municipality seem excluded from ser­
vice, i.e., it does not have an optimal infrastructure for their travel de­
mand. In contrast, an oversupply of public transport occurs in
commercial zones, which favors displacement for labor purposes.
Giron has three zones with a high indicator of PTSNI that indicate
disconnection from public transport even though they belong to BMA. In
Floridablanca, the zones with the greatest need for public transport are
Caldas, Reposo, and La Cumbre. Piedecuesta has high transport needs
due to its urban expansion. PTSNI is the most outstanding aspect that
may be of great interest to transport researchers, see Fig. 5. The negative
SDDI index shows the population group with more need. A high indi­
cator means that the supply of public transportation is insufficient, as
can see in Fig. 6. The population with a negative index result in com­
mercial land-use like San Francisco, Oriental, Cabecera del Llano, and
Centro in Bucaramanga. These areas have transport oversupply and
justifiable service, although they cannot have low-income populations,
since that represents 40% of all jobs in BMA on average. The residential
areas with extra supplies are Concordia, Provenza, and Sur. Other
peripherical population groups with positive index indicate that might
increase the infrastructure and new services in those populations. Flor­
idablanca is the second municipality in terms of size and population; it
has low-income inhabitants and positive SDDI in Caldas, Reposo, La
Cumbre and, Bucarica, which indicates some isolation of Public trans­
portation. The highest SDDI index, in Girón municipality, represents
more demand for public transport in all its population, i.e., the worst
served. Piedecuesta, despite being further from BMA downtown, its high
service index corresponds to demand, two areas of three have a negative
indicator. In general, the transport system satisfies the displacement
towards four zones: San Francisco, Oriental, Cabecera del Llano, and

7
J. Manrique et al.
Fig. 3. Population density.
Centro, and it does not facilitate transverse mobility that implies a long
time and several transfers promoting the car use. The routing model
from Bucaramanga downtown to periphery does not contemplate the
Floridablanca municipality that has areas with high trade density. This
analysis verifies that the public transport system contributes to the
consolidation of peripheral population groups isolated from the central
urban because an only trunk route connects them.
Horizontal equity, formulated with population density and PTSI,
shows high disparity within the BMA. The areas with the highest value
correspond with a large population and inefficient public transport
service, highlighting in Bucaramanga: North, Northeast, Occidental,
Morrorico, García Rovira, Mutis, and South. In Fig. 7, all populations
groups located on the periphery and with low-income inhabitants in
Girón have very high values of horizontal equity compared to other
groups indicating a lack of public transport services. Piedecuesta mu­
nicipality has one of its three population groups with inefficient service,
the better balance of equity in the downtown of Bucaramanga and
Floridablanca means service oversupply and infrastructure for a low
8
Research in Transportation Business & Management 42 (2022) 100561
density. MITS has an exclusive lane that crosses these population groups.
Also, the rest of the routes, whether they are feeder or complementary,
must at least make a stop in the zone, which helps to increase the level of
service. In general, eight zones stand out in horizontal equity: Morror­
ico, García Rovira, Mutis, Sur Occidente, Girón Norte, Casco Antiguo
Girón, Girón Sur, and Piedecuesta Oriente. The vertical equity obtained
through PTSI and PTSNI indexes reflect the relationship between supply
and demand in all population groups, see Fig. 8. The population group
with a high value corresponding to a high need for public transport and a
low level of service. It highlighted the misalignment that Girón munic­
ipality has in all the evaluated indexes, the area most affected by lack of
service. The Bucaramanga and Floridablanca evaluated as an only en­
tity, given their proximity, show eight population groups with density
and lower services (North, Nororiental, Morrorico, García Rovira, Mutis,
Sur Occidente, Caldas Reposo, and La Cumbre). The MITS has a little
positive effect in low-income with a large concentration of population,
as can be seen in the indexes. The transport system does not cover groups
on the peripheries of Bucaramanga and Floridablanca, since the further
J. Manrique et al.
Fig. 4. Public Transport Service Index.
away; the population is from its trunk axis, service is worse. These
conditions mean that population groups, mostly of low-income, present
worse access to employment, which affects their opportunities. Besides,
population groups with higher income and lack of public transport
services encourage the use of the car.
Evaluating the horizontal and vertical equity and the equality in the
distribution through the Lorenz curve and the Gini coefficient is verified
that the disparity between supply and demand of the public transport
service is remarkable. The curves shown in Fig. 9 indicate the notable
departure from the situation of global equality, both according to the
population density of the inhabitants in each population group and the
estimated social demand for public transport.
The Gini coefficient determined lower disparity in the horizontal
equity (0.38 value) compared with vertical equity (0.45) using the PTSI
and PTSNI indexes. The indicators are different from zero, which rep­
resents a loss of parity between supply and demand of public transport,
both in terms of quantity and socioeconomic aspect.
9
Research in Transportation Business & Management 42 (2022) 100561
6. Conclusions
▪ An analysis of the spatial equity offered by the Metrolinea In­
tegrated Transport System in the Bucaramanga Metropolitan
Area suggests that the disparity between social needs and
public transport supply is key to improve the service. The use of
Public transport service index and Public transport social needs
index, Gini coefficient, and Lorenz curve in conjunction with a
new Land Use Transport Interaction Model called BMA-LUTI
have made it possible to obtain useful information on supply
and demand in the city, a model based on the Visum software
and interpreted in Python language.
▪ The BMA is an urban territory where the public transport sys­
tem has weaknesses, being able to compare to other similar
medium-sized cities in Colombia, affected by the rapid and
disorganized development of land uses and the lack of meth­
odologies to impose more effective planning. Among these
weaknesses, the network structure of the public transport based
J. Manrique et al.
Fig. 5. Public Transport Social Need Index.
on a trunk route from which only the central population ben­
efits, constitutes a rigid system that does not facilitate trans­
versal mobility. The lack of interconnection between four
municipalities (Bucaramanga, Floridablanca, Girón, and Pie­
decuesta) causes low equity in the provision of public transport
and indicates an urgent restructuring to provide routes ac­
cording to demand, and relocating of stops, in order to obtain a
more equitable service and avoid an oversupply in specific
areas. Planning of frequencies based on demand for public
service and adapting infrastructure to meet the demand for
mobility between municipalities, not only to and from Bucar­
amanga, could be easy. The proposed methodology will allow
simulating different scenarios, incorporating slight changes
that gradually will facilitate the adaptation of supply to de­
mand as a more viable and short-term measure.
▪ The BMA has a notable disparity in the equity of public trans­
port services since it does not provide adequate access to job
from any area. Exist a dependence on trunk routes in the urban
10
Research in Transportation Business & Management 42 (2022) 100561
center without considering residential areas developed
recently. In some municipalities, public transport service is
becoming obsolete not adapting to rapid changes in land use,
and citizens are gradually migrating towards a more intense use
of the car and motorcycle as a travel mode.
▪ The proposed methodology constitutes a step forward in the
integration of geographic and socio-economic data analysis
techniques that allow evaluating equity in the public transport
service in Metropolitan Areas. The interrelation of the sub-
models of transport, residential location, location of economic
activities, and accessibility indicators allows us to have a useful
model available when measuring the dynamic effects of
changes in the transport system. The measurement techniques
of equity (horizontal and vertical) allow complete evaluation of
these changes in terms of social impact.
▪ The BMA-LUTI model has a limitation that it is important to
mention for future work. The lack of disaggregated information
on the social-economic status in the population groups affects
J. Manrique et al.
Fig. 6. Index Disparity between Supply and demand.
application when it is desired to give information at that level
of detail. However, the good results allow global evaluation of
mobility current on a workday. The methodology combines the
equity analysis of the public transport service and a LUTI model
that can be useful to evaluate different planning scenarios in
other similar cities in Colombia and Latin America.
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