SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.999827
R Square 0.999655
Adjusted R 0.99965
Standard E 22.31605
Observatio 72

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 1.01E+08 1.01E+08 202602.7 6.6E-123
Residual 70 34860.42 498.006
Total 71 1.01E+08

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Intercept 4242.724 5.315215 798.2225 2.5E-140 4232.124 4253.325 4232.124
X Variable 56.96048 0.126547 450.1141 6.6E-123 56.70809 57.21287 56.70809

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
Predicted YResiduals
Standard Residuals
1 4299.685 27.41514 1.237238
2 4356.645 16.35466 0.738082
3 4413.606 18.99418 0.857203
4 4470.566 17.7337 0.800317
5 4527.527 10.57322 0.477167
6 4584.487 4.912738 0.221711
7 4641.448 10.65226 0.480734
8 4698.408 7.491775 0.338102
9 4755.369 -0.368706 -0.01664
10 4812.329 -9.329188 -0.421024
11 4869.29 2.510331 0.113291
12 4926.25 3.149849 0.142152
13 4983.211 24.08937 1.087147
14 5040.171 1.728887 0.078024
15 5097.132 10.16841 0.458898
16 5154.092 18.80792 0.848797
17 5211.053 19.24744 0.868632
18 5268.013 -0.013039 -0.000588
19 5324.974 -19.27352 -0.869809
20 5381.934 -23.234 -1.048545
21 5438.894 -11.69448 -0.527769
22 5495.855 -4.154964 -0.187512
23 5552.815 -4.015446 -0.181216
24 5609.776 -3.675927 -0.165894
25 5666.736 -12.13641 -0.547713
26 5723.697 -28.79689 -1.299596
27 5780.657 -9.957371 -0.449374
28 5837.618 -10.01785 -0.452103
29 5894.578 -35.47833 -1.601128
30 5951.539 -55.73882 -2.515478
31 6008.499 -60.7993 -2.743857
32 6065.46 -74.05978 -3.342299
33 6122.42 -15.62026 -0.704938
34 6179.381 12.71926 0.574017
35 6236.341 9.358778 0.422359
36 6293.302 35.4983 1.602029
37 6350.262 11.03781 0.498134
38 6407.223 2.477333 0.111801
39 6464.183 12.51685 0.564882
40 6521.144 5.656371 0.255271
41 6578.104 -6.804111 -0.307068
42 6635.065 -1.764592 -0.079636
43 6692.025 15.97493 0.720944
44 6748.986 36.01445 1.625323
45 6805.946 47.15396 2.128046
46 6862.907 7.393482 0.333666
47 6919.867 -19.367 -0.874028
48 6976.827 40.77252 1.840053
49 7033.788 8.412038 0.379633
50 7090.748 -7.248443 -0.32712
51 7147.709 -14.50892 -0.654784
52 7204.669 -6.469406 -0.291963
53 7261.63 -6.729887 -0.303718
54 7318.59 -19.29037 -0.870569
55 7375.551 -12.65085 -0.57093
56 7432.511 -38.21133 -1.724468
57 7489.472 -14.37181 -0.648596
58 7546.432 -25.93229 -1.170318
59 7603.393 -17.89278 -0.807496
60 7660.353 3.946743 0.178116
61 7717.314 -7.913738 -0.357145
62 7774.274 0.92578 0.04178
63 7831.235 21.5653 0.973236
64 7888.195 -11.29518 -0.509749
65 7945.156 16.74434 0.755668
66 8002.116 7.183855 0.324206
67 8059.077 4.723373 0.213165
68 8116.037 25.16289 1.135595
69 8172.998 42.70241 1.927149
70 8229.958 14.34193 0.647248
71 8286.919 15.28145 0.689648
72 8343.879 -2.579033 -0.116391
 X Variable 1 Residual Plot
100
50

Residuals 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
-50
-100
X Variable 1

Upper 95.0% X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot

4253.325 10,000.00
57.21287 8,000.00
6,000.00 Y
4,000.00 Predicted Y
Y

2,000.00
0.00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
X Variable 1
 𝑿_𝒊^
t Tháng Doanh số thực tế (At) 𝟐
1 Jan-90 4,327.10 1
2 Apr-90 4,373.00 4
3 Jul-90 4,432.60 9
4 Oct-90 4,488.30 16
5 Jan-91 4,538.10 25
6 Apr-91 4,589.40 36
7 Jul-91 4,652.10 49
8 Oct-91 4,705.90 64
9 Jan-92 4,755.00 81
10 Apr-92 4,803.00 100
11 Jul-92 4,871.80 121
12 Oct-92 4,929.40 144
13 Jan-93 5,007.30 169
14 Apr-93 5,041.90 196
15 Jul-93 5,107.30 225
16 Oct-93 5,172.90 256
17 Jan-94 5,230.30 289
18 Apr-94 5,268.00 324
19 Jul-94 5,305.70 361
20 Oct-94 5,358.70 400
21 Jan-95 5,427.20 441
22 Apr-95 5,491.70 484
23 Jul-95 5,548.80 529
24 Oct-95 5,606.10 576
25 Jan-96 5,654.60 625
26 Apr-96 5,694.90 676
27 Jul-96 5,770.70 729
28 Oct-96 5,827.60 784
29 Jan-97 5,859.10 841
30 Apr-97 5,895.80 900
31 Jul-97 5,947.70 961
32 Oct-97 5,991.40 1024
33 Jan-98 6,106.80 1089
34 Apr-98 6,192.10 1156
35 Jul-98 6,245.70 1225
36 Oct-98 6,328.80 1296
37 Jan-99 6,361.30 1369
38 Apr-99 6,409.70 1444
39 Jul-99 6,476.70 1521
40 Oct-99 6,526.80 1600
41 Jan-00 6,571.30 1681
42 Apr-00 6,633.30 1764
43 Jul-00 6,708.00 1849
 44 Oct-00 6,785.00 1936
45 Jan-01 6,853.10 2025
46 Apr-01 6,870.30 2116
47 Jul-01 6,900.50 2209
48 Oct-01 7,017.60 2304
49 Jan-02 7,042.20 2401
50 Apr-02 7,083.50 2500
51 Jul-02 7,133.20 2601
52 Oct-02 7,198.20 2704
53 Jan-03 7,254.90 2809
54 Apr-03 7,299.30 2916
55 Jul-03 7,362.90 3025
56 Oct-03 7,394.30 3136
57 Jan-04 7,475.10 3249
58 Apr-04 7,520.50 3364
59 Jul-04 7,585.50 3481
60 Oct-04 7,664.30 3600
61 Jan-05 7,709.40 3721
62 Apr-05 7,775.20 3844
63 Jul-05 7,852.80 3969
64 Oct-05 7,876.90 4096
65 Jan-06 7,961.90 4225
66 Apr-06 8,009.30 4356
67 Jul-06 8,063.80 4489
68 Oct-06 8,141.20 4624
69 Jan-07 8,215.70 4761
70 Apr-07 8,244.30 4900
71 Jul-07 8,302.20 5041
72 Oct-07 8,341.30 5184
Tổng 2628 455168.3 127020
Trung bình 36.5 6321.78194444444

Dự báo Sai số
t Month Y dự báo SUM
73 Jan 8400.84 SUMSQ
74 Apr 8457.80 # Obs.
75 Jul 8514.76 Avg. error
76 Oct 8571.72 MSE
RMSE
MAD
MAPE
𝑿_𝒊 𝒀_𝒊 𝒀 ̂_𝒊
Dự báo Sai số (et) |At-Ft| |(At-Ft)/At|
4327.1 4299.68485540335 27.42 27.4151445966 0.0063356855
8746 4356.64533678479 16.35 16.3546632152 0.0037399184
13297.8 4413.60581816623 18.99 18.9941818338 0.0042851107
17953.2 4470.56629954767 17.73 17.7337004523 0.0039510952
22690.5 4527.52678092911 10.57 10.5732190709 0.0023298779
27536.4 4584.48726231055 4.91 4.91273768945 0.0010704532
32564.7 4641.44774369199 10.65 10.652256308 0.0022897737
37647.2 4698.40822507343 7.49 7.49177492657 0.0015919962
42795 4755.36870645487 -0.37 0.36870645487 7.754079E-05
48030 4812.32918783631 -9.33 9.32918783631 0.0019423668
53589.8 4869.28966921775 2.51 2.51033078225 0.0005152779
59152.8 4926.25015059919 3.15 3.14984940081 0.0006389925
65094.9 4983.21063198062 24.09 24.0893680194 0.0048108498
70586.6 5040.17111336206 1.73 1.72888663794 0.0003429038
76609.5 5097.1315947435 10.17 10.1684052565 0.0019909552
82766.4 5154.09207612494 18.81 18.8079238751 0.0036358568
88915.1 5211.05255750638 19.25 19.2474424936 0.0036799882
94824 5268.01303888782 -0.01 0.01303888782 2.475112E-06
100808.3 5324.97352026926 -19.27 19.2735202693 0.0036326065
107174 5381.9340016507 -23.23 23.2340016507 0.0043357534
113971.2 5438.89448303214 -11.69 11.6944830321 0.0021547912
120817.4 5495.85496441358 -4.15 4.15496441358 0.0007565898
127622.4 5552.81544579502 -4.02 4.01544579502 0.0007236602
134546.4 5609.77592717646 -3.68 3.67592717645 0.0006557013
141365 5666.73640855789 -12.14 12.1364085579 0.0021462895
148067.4 5723.69688993933 -28.80 28.7968899393 0.0050566103
155808.9 5780.65737132077 -9.96 9.95737132077 0.0017255049
163172.8 5837.61785270221 -10.02 10.0178527022 0.0017190357
169913.9 5894.57833408365 -35.48 35.4783340837 0.0060552532
176874 5951.53881546509 -55.74 55.7388154651 0.0094539868
184378.7 6008.49929684653 -60.80 60.7992968465 0.0102223207
191724.8 6065.45977822797 -74.06 74.059778228 0.0123610138
201524.4 6122.42025960941 -15.62 15.6202596094 0.0025578469
210531.4 6179.38074099085 12.72 12.7192590092 0.0020541107
218599.5 6236.34122237229 9.36 9.35877762771 0.0014984353
227836.8 6293.30170375373 35.50 35.4982962463 0.005609009
235368.1 6350.26218513516 11.04 11.0378148648 0.0017351508
243568.6 6407.2226665166 2.48 2.4773334834 0.0003864976
252591.3 6464.18314789804 12.52 12.516852102 0.0019325972
261072 6521.14362927948 5.66 5.65637072052 0.0008666377
269423.3 6578.10411066092 -6.80 6.80411066092 0.0010354284
278598.6 6635.06459204236 -1.76 1.76459204236 0.0002660202
288444 6692.0250734238 15.97 15.9749265762 0.0023814738
 298540 6748.98555480524 36.01 36.0144451948 0.0053079507
308389.5 6805.94603618668 47.15 47.1539638133 0.0068806765
316033.8 6862.90651756812 7.39 7.39348243188 0.0010761513
324323.5 6919.86699894956 -19.37 19.3669989496 0.0028066081
336844.8 6976.827480331 40.77 40.772519669 0.0058100376
345067.8 7033.78796171243 8.41 8.41203828757 0.0011945185
354175 7090.74844309387 -7.25 7.24844309387 0.0010232855
363793.2 7147.70892447531 -14.51 14.5089244753 0.0020339994
374306.4 7204.66940585675 -6.47 6.46940585675 0.0008987533
384509.7 7261.62988723819 -6.73 6.72988723819 0.0009276334
394162.2 7318.59036861963 -19.29 19.2903686196 0.0026427697
404959.5 7375.55085000107 -12.65 12.6508500011 0.0017181885
414080.8 7432.51133138251 -38.21 38.2113313825 0.0051676739
426080.7 7489.47181276395 -14.37 14.3718127639 0.0019226248
436189 7546.43229414539 -25.93 25.9322941454 0.0034482141
447544.5 7603.39277552683 -17.89 17.8927755268 0.0023588129
459858 7660.35325690827 3.95 3.94674309173 0.0005149515
470273.4 7717.3137382897 -7.91 7.9137382897 0.0010265051
482062.4 7774.27421967114 0.93 0.92578032886 0.0001190684
494726.4 7831.23470105258 21.57 21.5652989474 0.0027461923
504121.6 7888.19518243402 -11.30 11.295182434 0.0014339629
517523.5 7945.15566381546 16.74 16.7443361845 0.0021030578
528613.8 8002.1161451969 7.18 7.1838548031 0.0008969392
540274.6 8059.07662657834 4.72 4.72337342166 0.0005857503
553601.6 8116.03710795978 25.16 25.1628920402 0.0030908087
566883.3 8172.99758934122 42.70 42.7024106588 0.0051976594
577101 8229.95807072266 14.34 14.3419292773 0.0017396176
589456.2 8286.9185521041 15.28 15.2814478959 0.0018406504
600573.6 8343.87903348554 -2.58 2.57903348554 0.0003091884
18385000

n 72

Phương trình hồi quy:

BETA_1 56.96048138
Sai số BETA_0 4242.724374
0.00
34,860.42 Sai số tiêu chuẩn ước lượng SEE
72.00 Sai số tiêu chuẩn hệ số hồi quy
0.00 BETA_0
484.17 BETA_1
22.00
16.43 Critical value của alpha (0.05)
0.27 Khoảng tin cậy BETA_0
Khoảng tin cậy BETA_1

t của BETA_0
t của BETA_1

p-value của BETA_0 (t-test)

p-value của BETA_1 (t-test)

Sai lệch không được giải thích SSE

Sai lệch được giải thích SSR
R-Square
Adjusted R Square

MS_Regression
MS_Residuals
F
F của alpha (0.05)
p-value (F-test)
 (𝒀_𝒊−𝒀 ̂_𝒊 )^𝟐 (𝒀 ̂_𝒊−¯𝒀)^𝟐
Y^2
18,723,794.41 751.59015325502600 4088876.63750845
19,123,129.00 267.47500888285900 3861761.88676408
19,647,942.76 360.77894353425700 3641136.12889812
20,144,836.89 314.48413173292600 3426999.36391057
20,594,351.61 111.79296152102200 3219351.59180143
21,062,592.36 24.13499160534540 3018192.81257071
21,642,034.41 113.47056445157300 2823523.02621839
22,145,494.81 56.12669155040470 2635342.23274449
22,610,025.00 0.13594444986037 2453650.43214899
23,068,809.00 87.03374568508200 2278447.62443191
23,734,435.24 6.30176063633520 2109733.80959323
24,298,984.36 9.92155124781256 1947508.98763297
25,073,053.29 580.29765157292600 1791773.15855111
25,420,755.61 2.98904900683620 1642526.32234767
26,084,513.29 103.39646546037300 1499768.47902264
26,758,894.41 353.73800048997300 1363499.62857602
27,356,038.09 370.46404254520600 1233719.77100781
27,751,824.00 0.00017001259557 1110428.90631801
28,150,452.49 371.46858356954800 993627.034506615
28,715,665.69 539.81883270462800 883314.155573637
29,454,499.84 136.76093338894500 779490.269519068
30,158,768.89 17.26372927808820 682155.376342909
30,789,181.44 16.12380493270920 591309.476045161
31,428,357.21 13.51244060659990 506952.568625823
31,974,501.16 147.29241268410900 429084.654084898
32,431,886.01 829.26087017809200 357705.732422381
33,300,978.49 99.14924361974940 292815.803638276
33,960,921.76 100.35737276319200 234414.867732581
34,329,052.81 1,258.71218935110000 182502.924705297
34,760,457.64 3,106.81554945134000 137079.974556423
35,375,135.29 3,696.55449703232000 98146.0172859597
35,896,873.96 5,484.85075117585000 65701.0528939068
37,293,006.24 243.99251026527800 39745.0813802645
38,342,102.41 161.77954974193400 20278.1027450328
39,008,768.49 87.58671868499270 7300.11698821171
40,053,709.44 1,260.12903638833000 811.124109801301
40,466,137.69 121.83335699039500 811.124109801353
41,084,254.09 6.13718118795620 7300.11698821202
41,947,642.89 156.67158654228400 20278.102745033
42,599,118.24 31.99452972794100 39745.0813802648
43,181,983.69 46.29592188605530 65701.0528939072
44,000,668.89 3.11378507595760 98146.0172859597
44,997,264.00 255.19827911501800 137079.974556423
 46,036,225.00 1,297.04026268650000 182502.924705297
46,964,979.61 2,223.49630330823000 234414.867732581
47,201,022.09 54.66358247056340 292815.803638277
47,616,900.25 375.08064831208900 357705.732422382
49,246,709.76 1,662.39836015942000 429084.654084899
49,592,580.84 70.76238815146520 506952.568625826
50,175,972.25 52.53992728511510 591309.476045162
50,882,542.24 210.50888943032500 682155.376342911
51,814,083.24 41.85321213937730 779490.269519069
52,633,574.01 45.29138223876220 883314.155573637
53,279,780.49 372.11832148119000 993627.034506617
54,212,296.41 160.04400574956200 1110428.90631801
54,675,672.49 1,460.10584602380000 1233719.77100781
55,877,120.01 206.54900212196900 1363499.62857602
56,557,920.25 672.48387964285000 1499768.47902264
57,539,810.25 320.15141605338200 1642526.32234767
58,741,494.49 15.57678103215630 1791773.15855112
59,434,848.36 62.62725371793150 1947508.98763297
60,453,735.04 0.85706921729763 2109733.80959323
61,666,467.84 465.06211869148300 2278447.62443191
62,045,553.61 127.58114621783100 2453650.43214899
63,391,851.61 280.37279426086100 2635342.23274449
64,148,886.49 51.60776983202400 2823523.0262184
65,024,870.44 22.31025648045890 3018192.81257071
66,279,137.44 633.17113582781100 3219351.59180144
67,497,726.49 1,823.49587607137000 3426999.36391058
67,968,482.49 205.69093539631700 3641136.12889812
68,926,524.84 233.52264979524200 3861761.88676409
69,577,285.69 6.65141371951363 4088876.63750845
34860.4201214977 100897350.266406

1200.57932603036
iêu chuẩn hệ số hồi quy
285.952854959511
 6.80807969485552

1.99443711177119
3672.40938787374 4813.03936017009
43.3821945781235 70.5387681847549

14.8371464052096
8.36660026534076

2.64858269145882E-23
3.85890391884241E-12

34860
100897350
0.999654615509911
0.999649681445767

100897350.266406
498.006001735682
202602.679314611
3.97777939281019
6.58433715164706E-123
Xác định phương trình hồi quy tuyến tính dự báo doanh số bán hàng dựa trên ch
dữ liệu trong quá khứ.

Dự báo doanh số cho tháng 1, 4, 7, 10 trong năm 2008 dựa vào phương trình hồi

Xác định các giá trị SEE, sai số tiêu chuẩn, khoảng tin cậy, R-square, Adjusted R-sq
và các giá trị thành phần trong bảng ANOVA (Trình bày cách tính trong Excel)

Sử dụng kiểm định t-test và F-test để xác định phương trình hồi quy có ý nghĩa ha
không.

Doanh số thực tế (At)

10,000.00
8,000.00
Doanh số

6,000.00
4,000.00
2,000.00
0.00
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70

Doanh số thực tế (At)

án hàng dựa trên chuỗi

ào phương trình hồi quy.

quare, Adjusted R-square

nh trong Excel)

ồi quy có ý nghĩa hay

9 52 55 58 61 64 67 70