CHAPTER IV

CAUSES AND EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

1. Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Behind the phenomena of global warming and climate change lies the increase in

greenhouse gases in our atmosphere. A greenhouse gas is any gaseous compound in

the atmosphere that is capable of absorbing infrared radiation, thereby trapping and

holding heat in the atmosphere. By increasing the heat in the atmosphere, greenhouse

gases are responsible for the greenhouse effect, which ultimately leads to global

warming. (The effects of global warming can be seen across the globe).

1.1 Solar Radiation and Greenhouse Effects

Global warming isn't a recent scientific concept. The basics of the phenomenon

were worked out well over a century ago by Swedish physicist and chemist Svante

Arrhenius, in 1896. His paper, published in the Philosophical Magazine and Journal

of Science, was the first to quantify the contribution of carbon dioxide to what

scientists now call the "greenhouse effect."

The greenhouse effect occurs because the sun bombards Earth with enormous

amounts of radiation that strike Earth's atmosphere in the form of visible light, plus

ultraviolet (UV), infrared (IR) and other types of radiation that are invisible to the

human eye. UV radiation has a shorter wavelength and a higher energy level than

visible light, while IR radiation has a longer wavelength and a weaker energy level.

About 30% of the radiation that strikes Earth is reflected back out to space by clouds,
ice and other reflective surfaces. The remaining 70% is absorbed by the oceans, the

land and the atmosphere, according to NASA's Earth Observatory.

As they heat up, the oceans, land and atmosphere release heat in the form of IR

thermal radiation, which passes out of the atmosphere and into space. It's this

equilibrium of incoming and outgoing radiation that makes the Earth habitable, with

an average temperature of about 59 degrees Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius),

according to NASA. Without this atmospheric equilibrium, Earth would be as cold

and lifeless as its moon, or as blazing hot as Venus. The moon, which has almost no

atmosphere, is about minus 243 F (minus 153 C) on its dark side. Venus, on the other

hand, has a very dense atmosphere that traps solar radiation; the average temperature

on Venus is about 864 F (462 C).

The exchange of incoming and outgoing radiation that warms the Earth is often

referred to as the greenhouse effect because an agricultural greenhouse works in

much the same way. Incoming shortwave UV radiation easily passes through the

glass walls of a greenhouse and is absorbed by the plants and hard surfaces inside.

Weaker, longwave IR radiation, however, has difficulty passing through the glass

walls and is thereby trapped inside, warming the greenhouse.

1.2 House Greenhouse Causes Global Warming

The gases in the atmosphere that absorb radiation are known as "greenhouse

gases" (abbreviated as GHG) because they are largely responsible for the greenhouse

effect. The greenhouse effect, in turn, is one of the leading causes of global warming.

The most significant greenhouse gases, according to the Environmental Protection

Agency (EPA), are: water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and

nitrous oxide (N2O). "While oxygen (O2) is the second most abundant gas in our

atmosphere, O2 does not absorb thermal infrared radiation," Michael Daley, an

associate professor of environmental science at Lasell College in Massachusetts, told

Live Science.

Global warming and the greenhouse gases that cause it occur naturally — without

them, Earth's average surface temperature would be a gelid zero degrees F (minus 18

C). But the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has skyrocketed to

detrimental levels in recent history.

During the 20,000-year period before the Industrial Revolution, atmospheric CO2

fluctuated between about 180 parts per million (ppm) during ice ages and 280 ppm

during interglacial warm periods. However, since the beginning of the Industrial

Revolution in the 1750s, the amount of CO2 has risen nearly 50%, according to

NASA’s Global Climate Change portal. Today, CO2 levels stand at over 410 ppm.

Fluorinated gases — gases to which the element fluorine has been added — are

created during industrial processes and are also considered greenhouse gases. These

include hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride. Although they

are present in the atmosphere in very small concentrations, they trap heat very

effectively, making them high "global warming potential" (GWP) gases.

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), once used as refrigerants and aerosol propellants until

they were phased out by international agreement, are also greenhouse gases.
 There are three factors that affect the degree to which a greenhouse gas will

influence global warming: Its abundance in the atmosphere, how long it stays in the

atmosphere and its GWP. For example, water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse

gas, but carbon dioxide has a more significant impact on global warming due to its

abundance in the atmosphere plus its relatively long atmospheric lifetime of 300 to

1,000 years, according to NASA. Water vapor, on the other hand, has an atmospheric

lifetime of no more than 10 days, according to a 2020 study published in the Journal

of the Atmospheric Sciences.

Methane is about 21 times more efficient at absorbing radiation than CO2, giving

it a higher GWP rating, even though it stays in the atmosphere for only about 12

years, according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

(UNFCCC). Although methane and other GHGs are capable of trapping more heat

than CO2, scientists still consider carbon dioxide to be the dominant greenhouse gas

because its warming effect outlives the others' effects by centuries.

1.3 Sources of Greenhouse Gases

Some greenhouse gases, such as methane, are produced through agricultural

practices, in the form of livestock manure, for example. Others, like CO2, largely

result from natural processes like respiration, and from the burning of fossil fuels like

coal, oil and gas.

Another primary source of CO2 is deforestation. When trees are felled to produce

goods or heat, they release the carbon that is normally stored for photosynthesis. This
process releases up to 4.8 billion metric tons of carbon into the atmosphere every

year, according to the World Resources Institute.

Forestry and other land-use practices can offset some of these greenhouse gas

emissions. "Replanting helps to reduce the buildup of carbon dioxide in the

atmosphere as growing trees sequester carbon dioxide through photosynthesis," Daley

told Live Science. "However, forests cannot sequester all of the carbon dioxide we

are emitting to the atmosphere through the burning of fossil fuels, and a reduction in

fossil fuel emissions is still necessary to avoid buildup in the atmosphere."

Worldwide, the output of greenhouse gases is a source of grave concern.

According to NOAA’s Climate.gov, over the past 60 years, atmospheric CO2 has

increased at an annual rate that's 100 times faster than previous natural increases. The

last time global atmospheric CO2 amounts were this high was 3 million years ago,

when temperatures were up to 5.4 degrees F (3 degrees C) higher than during the pre-

industrial era. As a result of modern-day CO2-induced global warming, 2016 was the

warmest year on record, with 2019 and 2020 ranking as the next warmest,

respectively. In fact, the six hottest years on record have all occurred since 2015,

according to the World Meteorological Organization.

"The warming we observe affects atmospheric circulation, which impacts rainfall

patterns globally," said Josef Werne, an associate professor in the Department of

Geology and Planetary Science at the University of Pittsburgh. "This will lead to big

environmental changes, and challenges, for people all across the globe."
1.4 The Greenhouse Effect

Human activities contribute to global warming by increasing the greenhouse

effect. The greenhouse effect happens when certain gases—known as greenhouse

gases—collect in Earth’s atmosphere. These gases, which occur naturally in the

atmosphere, include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxide, and fluorinated gases

sometimes known as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).

Greenhouse gases let the sun’s light shine onto Earth’s surface, but they trap the

heat that reflects back up into the atmosphere. In this way, they act like the insulating

glass walls of a greenhouse. The greenhouse effect keeps Earth’s climate

comfortable. Without it, surface temperatures would be cooler by about 33 degrees

Celsius (60 degrees Fahrenheit), and many life forms would freeze.

Since the Industrial Revolution in the late 1700s and early 1800s, people have

been releasing large quantities of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. That amount

has skyrocketed in the past century. Greenhouse gas emissions increased 70 percent

between 1970 and 2004. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the most important greenhouse

gas, rose by about 80 percent during that time. The amount of carbon dioxide in the

atmosphere today far exceeds the natural range seen over the last 650,000 years.

Most of the carbon dioxide that people put into the atmosphere comes from

burning fossil fuels such as oil, coal, and natural gas. Cars, trucks, trains, and planes

all burn fossil fuels. Many electric power plants also burn fossil fuels.

Another way people release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere is by cutting

down forests. This happens for two reasons. Decaying plant material, including trees,
releases tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Living trees absorb carbon

dioxide. By diminishing the number of trees to absorb carbon dioxide, the gas

remains in the atmosphere.

Most methane in the atmosphere comes from livestock farming, landfills, and

fossil fuel production such as coal mining and natural gas processing. Nitrous oxide

comes from agricultural technology and fossil fuel burning. Fluorinated gases include

chlorofluorocarbons, hydrochlorofluorocarbons, and hydrofluorocarbons. These

greenhouse gases are used in aerosol cans and refrigeration.

All of these human activities add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, trapping

more heat than usual and contributing to global warming.

2. Global Warming and Temperature Rise

It’s difficult not to notice there’s been a global temperature increase. Countries

around the world have all been experiencing a general increase of temperature

throughout the year, with new record high numbers making the news come every

summer. Heat waves have also become a more frequent weather event with

increasing intensity as seen in the west coast of Canada and the US to the typically

cool regions of Siberia within the same month of 2021. Climate scientists are all on

the same page concerning how Earth’s current global warming is very much linked to

climate change. Here’s why there’s been a global temperature rise and the subsequent

effects of rising temperatures.

2.1 What Causes A Heat Wave?

A heat wave usually refers to a period of higher than average, or as evidenced by

recent climate events, record-breaking temperatures in a particular region. Heat

waves very often last for a few days, and heat wave events have increasingly become

longer in recent years.

Heat waves occur when high pressures in the atmosphere moves in and forces

warm air downwards to the ground. The warm air is then prevented from rising by the

atmospheric force, which creates heat dome with air trapped underneath it. Without

rising air, the pressure system forces weather to change; from minimizing wind and

cloud cover to disrupting the rain formation cycle, combined together, you’re left

with stifling air and hot air that keeps increasing in temperature.

2.2 What is Causing Global Temperature Increase and How It Relates to Recent

Heat Waves

It’s undeniable that climate change is the root cause of global warming

temperatures. The exponential increase of greenhouse gas emissions including carbon

dioxide, methane and nitrous monoxide, which is caused by burning fossil fuels for

energy and transportation, agriculture and land use, as well as various industries,

released into the air since the industrial revolution has caused more significant

pressure on our planet’s atmosphere. As more emissions are released, more gases are

trapped in the atmosphere, creating a thicker blanket over the planet, which then traps

greater amounts of heat from the sun, thus heating up the global surface. This is

known as the greenhouse effect.

 Atmospheric moisture plays an important role in the occurrence of heat waves.

They tend to occur more frequently in dry conditions with low humidity, but heat

waves in high humidity conditions can have a large impact on the population,

especially in cities with a higher density, livestock, and wildlife.

While it’s difficult to measure the exact impact of how climate change is causing

heat waves, scientists have been able to link the increased intensity and higher

frequency of heat waves and similar extreme climate events.

According to the NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, heat waves in the US

have occurred more often and lasted longer since the 1960s, which is consistent with

a warming climate due to climate change. In June 2021, the west coast of the US

experienced a six-day long heat wave with historic high temperatures recorded in

seven different states including California, Arizona, and New Mexico. During the

same time period, Canada saw temperatures skyrocketing above 49°C in Lytton,

British Columbia and hundreds of wildfires popping up across the country.

Scientists have also found that not only are there’s a global temperature increase

right now, but they’re projected to increase at much higher rates in the future as

greenhouse gases continue to be released around the world, according to the Climate

Science Special Report. Extreme temperatures are expected to increase even more

than average temperatures across the US, and heat waves much like the one

experienced in June 2021 but will become more common by the end of the century.
Figure1: Red bars show the percent of the U.S. Southwest (Colorado, Utah, Arizona,

and New Mexico) having extremely warm days–daytime high temperatures in the top

ten percent of the historical record–each summer since 1910. The footprint of extreme

heat in the Southwest has exploded in the past 30 years. NOAA Climate.gov graph,

based on data from NCEI’s Climate Extremes Index.

 Given the tremendous size and heat capacity of the global oceans, it takes a

massive amount of heat energy to raise Earth’s average yearly surface temperature

even a small amount. The roughly 2-degree Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) increase in

global average surface temperature that has occurred since the pre-industrial era

(1880-1900) might seem small, but it means a significant increase in accumulated

heat.

That extra heat is driving regional and seasonal temperature extremes, reducing

snow cover and sea ice, intensifying heavy rainfall, and changing habitat ranges for

plants and animals—expanding some and shrinking others. As the map below shows,

most land areas have warmed faster than most ocean areas, and the Arctic is warming

faster than most other regions.

 Trends in global average surface temperature between 1993 and 2022 in degrees

Fahrenheit per decade. Most of the planet is warming (yellow, orange, red). Only a

few locations, most of them in Southern Hemisphere oceans, cooled over this time

period. NOAA Climate.gov map, based on data from NOAA Centers for

Environmental Information.
2.3 About Surface Temperature

The concept of an average temperature for the entire globe may seem odd. After

all, at this very moment, the highest and lowest temperatures on Earth are likely more

than 100°F (55°C) apart. Temperatures vary from night to day and between seasonal

extremes in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. This means that some parts of

Earth are quite cold while other parts are downright hot. To speak of the "average"

temperature, then, may seem like nonsense. However, the concept of a global average

temperature is convenient for detecting and tracking changes in Earth's energy budget

—how much sunlight Earth absorbs minus how much it radiates to space as heat—

over time.

To calculate a global average temperature, scientists begin with temperature

measurements taken at locations around the globe. Because their goal is to track

changes in temperature, measurements are converted from absolute temperature

readings to temperature anomalies—the difference between the observed temperature

and the long-term average temperature for each location and date. Multiple

independent research groups across the world perform their own analysis of the

surface temperature data, and they all show a similar upward trend.

Across inaccessible areas that have few measurements, scientists use surrounding

temperatures and other information to estimate the missing values. Each value is then

used to calculate a global temperature average. This process provides a consistent,

reliable method for monitoring changes in Earth's surface temperature over time.
Read more about how the global surface temperature record is built in our Climate

Data Primer.

2.4 Global temperature in 2022

According to the 2022 Global Climate Report from NOAA National Centers for

Environmental Information, every month of 2022 ranked among the ten warmest for

that month, despite the cooling influence from the La Niña climate pattern in the

tropical Pacific. The "coolest" month was November, which was 1.35 ˚F (0.75 ˚C)

warmer than average.

map) Global average surface temperature in 2022 compared to the 1991-2020

average, with places that were warmer than average colored red, and places that were

cooler than average colored blue. (graph) The bars on the graph show global
temperatures compared to the 20th-century average each year from 2022 (right) back

to 1976 (left)–the last year the world was cooler than average. NOAA Climate.gov

image, based on data from NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.

According to NCEI, the year 2022 was the sixth warmest year since global

records began in 1880 at 0.86°C (1.55°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C

(57.0°F). This value is 0.13°C (0.23°F) less than the record set in 2016 and it is only

0.02°C (0.04°F) higher than the last year's (2021) value, which now ranks as the

seventh highest. The 10 warmest years in the 143-year record have all occurred since

2010, with the last nine years (2014–2022) ranking as the nine warmest years on

record.

2.5 Past and Future Change in Global Temperature

Though warming has not been uniformed across the planet, the upward trend in

the globally averaged temperature shows that more areas are warming than cooling.

According to NOAA's 2021 Annual Climate Report the combined land and ocean

temperature has increased at an average rate of 0.14 degrees Fahrenheit ( 0.08 degrees

Celsius) per decade since 1880; however, the average rate of increase since 1981 has

been more than twice as fast: 0.32 °F (0.18 °C) per decade.

The amount of future warming Earth will experience depends on how much

carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases we emit in coming decades. Today, our

activities—burning fossil fuels and clearing forests—add about 11 billion metric tons

of carbon (equivalent to a little over 40 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide) to the
atmosphere each year. Because that is more carbon than natural processes can

remove, atmospheric carbon dioxide increases each year.

(left) Hypothetical pathways of carbon emissions ("representative concentration

pathways," or RCPs) throughout the twenty-first century based on different possible

energy policies and economic growth patterns. (right) Projected temperature increase

relative to the 1901-1960 average depending on which RCP we eventually follow.

Image by Katharine Hayhoe, from the 2017 Climate Science Special Report by the

U.S. Global Change Research Program.

According to the 2017 U.S. Climate Science Special Report, if yearly emissions

continue to increase rapidly, as they have since 2000, models project that by the end

of this century, global temperature will be at least 5 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than

the 1901-1960 average, and possibly as much as 10.2 degrees warmer. If annual

emissions increase more slowly and begin to decline significantly by 2050, models
project temperatures would still be at least 2.4 degrees warmer than the first half of

the 20th century, and possibly up to 5.9 degrees warmer.

2.6 What Are the Effects of Increase in Temperature and Higher Frequency of

Heat Waves?

One of the biggest consequences of global warming temperature and increased

frequency of heat waves, especially in dry regions, is that they contribute to higher

risks of wildfires. This is already evidenced in areas like Siberia, as they battle

hundreds of wildfires each year during summer seasons, and are plagued by the

resulting air pollution. That in itself causes significant impacts for public health as

fire seasons continue to be prolonged.

Droughts will become more common, which in turn, can make hot temperatures

even higher as drier grounds absorb more sunlight, converting soil moisture into

water vapor and carrying heat away from the surface.

Similarly, mortality rates tend to increase during periods of heat waves and

extreme climate events. Many countries and communities are unable to adapt to

warmer conditions, especially for the elderly and more vulnerable citizens. Increased

wildfires could also indirectly endanger residents as they affect infrastructure and

prevent people from accessing help.

It’s critical for governments and individuals to prepare measures and safety

conditions during summer seasons, as more heat waves and climate change events

become frequent and more intense.

3. Extreme Weather Events

3.1 What Is Extreme Weather?

Extreme weather is what we call it when a particular weather event like a flash

flood or a heat wave is significantly different from the average weather pattern for an

area. It is important to understand these events because they can be disruptive and

even deadly, harming human communities, agriculture and ecosystems.

Extreme weather can either be weather related or climate related. Weather-related

extreme weather events are shorter incidents like tornadoes, deep freezes or heat

waves. Climate related extreme weather events last longer or are caused by a buildup

of weather-related events over time. Examples include droughts caused by long dry

spells or wildfires caused by an extended drought. Extreme weather events can be

caused by natural cycles like La Niña or more immediate influences like high

pressure systems. However, they are becoming more likely because of the climate

crisis caused by the human emission of greenhouse gasses.

Scientists typically define an extreme weather event in one of two ways,

according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Climate Hubs. The first looks at

the likelihood of a given event occurring at a certain intensity during a specific time

frame. The second focuses on whether an event passes a particular limit, i.e. if a heat

wave exceeds a number of days over 100 degrees Fahrenheit.

3.2 Types of Extreme Weather

There are various types of extreme weather events that can have a serious impact

on human populations.

3.2.1 Drought

A drought is defined as a “a period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently

prolonged for the lack of water to cause serious hydrologic imbalance in the affected

area.” What this means is that a dry spell lasts long enough to diminish the water

supply or damage crops. One famous example is the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. While

this is often referred to as a single disaster, it was really a series of droughts that

impacted the south-central U.S. and were then exacerbated by damaging dust storms.

Currently, the southwestern U.S. is in the midst of its biggest megadrought in 1,200

years, which has shrunken reservoirs, depleted Utah’s Great Salt Lake to record low

levels and encouraged devastating wildfires.

3.2.2 Heat Waves

A heat wave is a stretch of unusually hot weather that lasts for two or more

days. To be considered a heat wave, temperatures must rise above the average for an

area, so two 95 degree days in Maine would be considered a heat wave, but the same

in Death Valley would not. Heat waves are often caused when hot air becomes

trapped over an area by something like a high pressure system. Heat waves are

actually the deadliest kind of extreme weather event, killing more U.S. residents each

year on average than any other weather disaster. The blood thickens when the human

body becomes overheated, forcing the heart to pump harder and putting it and other
organs at risk for damage. The deadliest heat wave on record was a 2010 heat wave

that killed as many as 56,000 people in Russia.

3.2.3 Hurricanes, Typhoons and Cyclones

A tropical cyclone is a type of storm that forms over tropical or subtropical

waters. It consists of a rotating circle of clouds and thunderstorms. These weather

systems are defined by their maximum sustained wind speed. A system with a wind

speed below 39 miles per hour is a tropical depression. A system with a wind speed

above this is a tropical storm. A storm with a wind speed 74 miles per hour or higher

is a tropical cyclone. Tropical cyclones are called hurricanes in the North Atlantic,

central North Pacific and eastern North Pacific and typhoons in the Northwest

Pacific. In the South Pacific and Indian Ocean, all storms are called tropical cyclones

regardless of wind speed. Tropical cyclones are usually accompanied by heavy winds,

large waves, heavy rains and flooding. The deadliest tropical cyclone was Cyclone

Bhola, which killed as many as 500,000 people in 1970 in what is now Bangladesh.

The storm was so deadly because of a storm surge that swamped low-lying islands

and tidal flats in the Bay of Bengal. The deadliest hurricane in U.S. history was the

Great Galveston Storm of 1900, which saw wind speeds greater than 135 miles per

hour and a storm surge of 15 feet. It claimed between 6,000 and 12,000 lives. The

second deadliest was Hurricane Maria, which killed 2,975 people in Puerto Rico in

2017.

3.2.4 Tornadoes
 A tornado is a thin, rapidly rotating column of air extended by a thunderstorm

towards the ground. They are one of the most violent effects of atmospheric storms.

Also called twisters, they can have wind speeds greater than 250 miles per hour and

clear a path a mile wide by 50 miles long. The most destructive tornadoes typically

come from large and long-lasting thunderstorms called supercells. Tornadoes occur

all over the world, but are most common in the U.S., where there are about a

thousand every year, which cause around 80 deaths and more than 1,500 injuries.

Tornado Alley is the name the media uses to refer to a part of the central U.S. where

violent tornadoes tend to occur. However, tornadoes have been recorded in all 50

states and generally shift from the Southeast in Winter to the south and central Plains

in May and June to the northern Plains and Midwest in early summer. The deadliest

tornado in U.S. history was the Tri-State Tornado of 1925, which cut a 219-mile long

swathe through Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. It killed 695 people and injured 2,027.

In a recent example of a tornado outbreak, at least 50 twisters killed more than 100

people in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, and Tennessee and

Kentucky in December of 2021.

3.2.5 Wildfires

A wildfire is an unplanned, uncontrolled fire burned in a natural area like a

forest or grassland. They can start either because of a natural occurrence like a

lightning strike or because of human activity. However, their spread is determined by

external conditions such as high temperatures, high wind speeds and low precipitation

that leaves lots of dried vegetation as fuel. Wildfires are actually a natural and helpful
part of several ecosystems. Some tree cones need the heat from fires in order to open

and release their seeds and chaparral plants need fire for their seeds to germinate.

Wildfires can also kill insects and disease and clear out dead vegetation to make way

for new growth. However, in some places an increase in fire activity is putting a

strain on both ecosystems and human communities. In the Southwestern U.S., a

history of fire suppression led to a buildup of potential fuel, which has combined with

higher temperatures and drought to cause more frequent and extreme fires in recent

years. The Camp Fire in 2018 destroyed almost the entire town of Paradise and was

the deadliest and most destructive fire in California history. Unprecedented bushfires

in Australia in 2019 and 2020 killed or displaced around three billion animals.

3.2.6 Winter Storms

Winter storms are a life-threatening combination of heavy snow, blowing snow

and dangerous wind chill. A blizzard is a type of winter storm that combines heavy

wind with blowing snow to severely reduce visibility. An ice storm occurs when at

least a quarter of an inch of ice accumulates on surfaces. This can make driving or

walking very dangerous and cause tree branches or power lines to snap. The deadliest

winter storm in U.S. history was the Great Blizzard of 1888, which killed more than

400 people in Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York. It dumped 40

to 50 inches of snow and buried trains and buses. A famous ice storm occurred in

New England in December of 2008, cutting off power to more than a million people.

3.3 Extreme Weather and the Climate Crisis

 The climate crisis is making many extreme weather events both more frequent

and more severe. A new scientific field called “extreme event attribution” has

emerged to assess the human fingerprints on any particular extreme weather event,

such as a storm or heat wave. Carbon Brief drew on more than 350 peer-reviewed

attribution studies to create a map of 405 extreme weather events or trends. The

research had found that 70 percent of them were made more likely or more severe by

human-caused climate change. There are several reasons that climate change has this

effect, and they vary depending on the weather event in question.

3.3.1 Drought

The climate crisis raises the likelihood of drought because higher temperatures

lead to more evaporation, reducing surface water and drying out soils and vegetation.

Further, increased winter temperatures mean that less precipitation falls as snow in

some areas. Even if the same amount of precipitation falls overall, this can still lead

to drought because some water systems depend heavily on the spring melt from

mountain snowpacks. The current megadrought in the U.S. West is calculated to be

42 percent more extreme because of the climate crisis.

3.3.2 Heat Waves

The connection between climate change and heat waves is perhaps the most

straightforward. As global temperatures rise, periods of extreme heat naturally

increase. In the last decade, daily record highs in the continental U.S. have occurred

twice as often as record lows. Carbon Brief considered 122 studies that looked at

extreme heat events or trends and found that 92 percent of the events studied were
made more likely or severe because of the climate crisis. For example, the heat wave

that baked France in 2019 was found to be 10 to 100 times more likely because of the

burning of fossil fuels.

3.3.3 Hurricanes, Typhoons and Cyclones

The climate crisis has several impacts on tropical storms. Warmer sea surface

temperatures make storms both stronger and wetter. NOAA has predicted that the

number of the strongest Category 4 and 5 hurricanes will increase as the climate

warms. Further, more evaporation leads to more moisture in the air, increasing

intense rainfall. Scientists estimated that the climate crisis made 2018’s Hurricane

Florence 50 percent wetter. Sea level rise also increases the impact of hurricanes

because the storm surge does not have as far to travel. Hurricane Harvey’s storm

surge, for example, gained half a foot because of a combination of sea level rise and

land sinking due to oil drilling. How climate change will impact the overall frequency

of hurricanes is less clear.

3.3.4 Tornadoes

The impact of the climate crisis on tornadoes is also uncertain. As far as

scientists can tell, there has been no increase in the number of strong tornadoes in the

U.S. in the past few decades. There have been more incidents of tornadoes occurring

in clusters, and there is some evidence that the overall power of tornadoes is

increasing, but there is no clear link between these trends and the climate crisis. There

is also evidence that the traditional “tornado alley” is moving eastward from the Great
Plains to the Midwest and Southeast. Scientists say it is possible that climate change

is behind the shift, but more research is needed.

3.3.5 Wildfires

Wildfire risk is increasing for much the same reason as drought. Climate change

raises temperatures, increases the amount of dry vegetation that serves as wildfire fuel

and reduces the amount of water available. This means that when fires ignite, they are

more likely to burn larger and with greater intensity. They are also becoming more

frequent and the length of the fire season is getting longer. In the U.S. West, the

number of large fires has doubled between 1984 and 2015. Scientists calculated that

the climate crisis made Australia’s 2019 and 2020 bushfire season at least 30 percent

more likely.

3.3.6 Winter Storms

While climate change may lead to warmer winters overall, it can still increase

the amount of snow that falls during winter storms. This is because it increases the

amount of moisture in the atmosphere, which will fall as snow if temperatures dip

below freezing. Further, there is some debate as to whether or not Arctic warming

destabilizes the jet stream, leading Arctic air to travel south to cause infamous “polar

vortex” cold snaps.

3.4 Effects of Extreme Weather

Extreme weather can have serious and lasting impacts beyond the initial

wildfire, flood or storm. In the immediate aftermath of a storm, access to food, water

and shelter are reduced, putting survivors at risk from malnutrition and dehydration.

When the power goes out, people often turn to carbon-monoxide-powered generators,

which can increase the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning.

Disease is another major risk. Water resources can be contaminated by drought–

which increases the spread of “effluent pathogens”–or flooding, which can spill
wastewater into the drinking supply. For example, a cholera outbreak followed in the

wake of Cyclone Idai, which devastated Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Malawi in

2019. A major concern during the 2020 hurricane and wildfire seasons was whether

or not evacuees would contract COVID-19 in crowded shelters. One Harvard study

also found that people exposed to wildfire smoke were more likely to both catch and

die from the coronavirus.

Both warm and cold weather can also cause long-lasting health implications.

The climate crisis has increased the numbers of crop pests, which in turn has

prompted farmers to use more pesticides, which both decrease the nutritional value of

food and threaten human health. The spread of the mold that creates the liver-

damaging toxin aflatoxin has also been linked to the climate crisis. Cold weather can

increase the risk of pneumonia, influenza, norovirus and heart disease.

Extreme weather events can also have a major impact on the economy. Europe

lost nearly half a trillion euros because of extreme weather events from 1980 to 2000.

Twenty extreme weather events in 2021 cost the U.S. at least $145 billion dollars.

Individuals and communities can take a long time to recover from the hit of a major

disaster. For example, New Orleans’ Lower Ninth Ward, which was hit hard by

Hurricane Katrina in 2005, was still full of vacant lots 14 years later. A single grocery

store served a population of 1,200.

4. Ocean Acidification

4.1 Overview
 Ocean acidification, the worldwide reduction in the pH of seawater as a

consequence of the absorption of large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) by the

oceans. Ocean acidification is largely the result of loading Earth’s atmosphere with

large quantities of CO2, produced by vehicles and industrial and agricultural

processes. Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution about 1750, roughly one-

third to one-half of the CO2 released into Earth’s atmosphere by human activities has

been absorbed by the oceans. During that time period, scientists have estimated, the

average pH of seawater declined from 8.19 to 8.05, which corresponds to a 30 percent

increase in acidity.

Some scientists estimate that the pace of ocean acidification since the beginning

of the Industrial Revolution has been approximately 100 times more rapid than at any

other time during the most recent 650,000 years. They note that concentrations of

atmospheric CO2 between 1000 and 1900 CE ranged between 275 and 290 parts per

million by volume (ppmv). In 2010 the average concentration was 390 ppmv, and

climatologists expect the concentration to rise to between 413 and 750 ppmv by 2100,

depending on the level of greenhouse gas emissions. With additional CO2 transferred

to the oceans, pH would decline further; under worst-case scenarios, seawater pH

would drop to between 7.8 and 7.9 by 2100.

Marine scientists are concerned that the process of ocean acidification constitutes

a threat to sea life and to the cultures that depend on the ocean for their food and

livelihood. Increases in ocean acidity reduce the concentration of carbonate ions and

the availability of aragonite (a significant source of calcium carbonate) in seawater.

Marine scientists expect that coral, shellfish, and other marine calcifiers (that is,

organisms that use carbonates) will be less able to obtain the raw materials that they

use to build and maintain their skeletons and shells. These scientists also note that

rising ocean acidity presents a number of other physiological problems to different

groups of marine organisms and that such problems could threaten the stability of

marine food chains.

The acidity of any solution is determined by the relative concentration of

hydrogen ions (H+). A larger concentration of H+ ions in a solution corresponds to

higher acidity, which is measured as a lower pH. When CO2 dissolves in seawater, it

creates carbonic acid (H2CO3) and liberates H+, which subsequently reacts with

carbonate ions (CO32−) and aragonite (the stable form of calcium carbonate) to form

bicarbonate (HCO3−). At present seawater is extremely rich in dissolved carbonate

minerals. However, as ocean acidity increases, carbonate ion concentrations fall.

The absorption of CO2 largely results from the dissolution of the gas into the

upper layers of the ocean, but CO2 is also brought into the oceans through

photosynthesis and respiration. Algae and other marine photosynthesizers take in

CO2 and store it in their tissues as carbon. Carbon is then passed to zooplankton and

other organisms through the food chain, and these organisms can release CO2 to the

oceans through respiration. In addition, when marine organisms die and fall to the

ocean floor, CO2 is released through the process of decomposition.

4.2 Physiological and Ecological Effects of Ocean Acidification

 Under the worst-case scenarios outlined above, with seawater pH dropping to

between 7.8 and 7.9, carbonate ion concentrations would decrease by at least 50

percent as acids in the seawater reacted with them. Under such conditions, marine

calcifiers would have substantially less material to maintain their shells and skeletons.

Laboratory experiments in which the pH of seawater has been lowered to

approximately 7.8 (to simulate one projected oceanic pH for the year 2100) have

shown that such organisms placed in these environments do not grow as well as those

placed in environments characterized by early 21st-century levels of seawater acidity

(pH = 8.05). As a result, their small size places them at higher risk of being eaten by

predators. Furthermore, the shells of some organisms—for instance, pteropods, which

serve as food for krill and whales—dissolve substantially after only six weeks in such

high-acid environments.

Larger animals such as squid and fishes may also feel the effects of increasing

acidity as carbonic acid concentrations rise in their body fluids. This condition, called

acidosis, may cause problems with the animal’s respiration as well as with growth

and reproduction.

In addition, many marine scientists suspect the substantial decline in oyster beds

along the West Coast of the United States since 2005 to be caused by the increased

stress ocean acidification places on oyster larvae. (It may make them more vulnerable

to disease.)

Physiological changes brought on by increasing acidity have the potential to alter

predator-prey relationships. Some experiments have shown that the carbonate

skeletons of sea urchin larvae are smaller under conditions of increased acidity; such

a decline in overall size could make them more palatable to predators who would

avoid them under normal conditions. In turn, decreases in the abundance of

pteropods, foraminiferans, and coccoliths would force those animals that consume

them to switch to other prey. The process of switching to new food sources would

cause several predator populations to decline while also placing predation pressure on

organisms unaccustomed to such attention.

4.3 Current Research

Ocean acidification is one aspect of global climate change. Anything we do to

mitigate climate change today will benefit the future of the ocean as well. Over the

last decade, there has been much focus in the ocean science community on studying

the potential impacts of ocean acidification. NOAA's Ocean Acidification Program

serves to build relationships between scientists, resource managers, policy makers,

and the public in order to research and monitor the effects of changing ocean

chemistry on economically and ecologically important ecosystems such as fisheries

and coral reefs.

Because sustained efforts to monitor ocean acidification worldwide are only

beginning, it is currently impossible to predict exactly how ocean acidification

impacts will cascade throughout the marine food web and affect the overall structure

of marine ecosystems. With the pace of ocean acidification accelerating, scientists,

resource managers, and policymakers recognize the urgent need to strengthen the

science as a basis for sound decision making and action.

5. Melting Ice and Rising Sea Levels

One implication of climate change is sea level rise. Sea level is the average height

of the ocean relative to the land, between the high and low tides. The rising global

temperature is causing both land ice and sea ice to melt.

A. Sea Ice

Sea ice is frozen seawater. It forms, grows and melts in the sea. Sea ice forms

more slowly than freshwater ice due to a combination of factors. First, the freezing

point of saltwater is lower than freshwater. The seawater temperature must get down

to -1.8°C. It often takes longer to reach this temperature because, as seawater cools, it

sinks. The top 100–150 m of seawater often needs to cool to -1.8°C for ice to form.

B. Melting Ice and Sea Level Rise

A large fraction of the Earth’s fresh water is frozen: It is stored in glaciers all

around the world, and in both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. When this ice

melts or calves off, the water flows into the oceans and sea levels rise. If all glaciers

and ice sheets melted, global sea level would rise by more than 195 feet (60 meters).

NASA continuously measures the weight of glaciers and ice sheets – with the twin

GRACE satellites from 2002 to 2017, and with the GRACE-Follow On satellites

since 2018. These satellites unambiguously show that the Greenland and Antarctic ice

sheets, as well as the glaciers, are shrinking.

Both the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the US National

Climate Assessment conclude that ice loss was the largest contributor to sea-level rise
during the past few decades, and will contribute to rising sea levels for the century to

come.

Melting land ice leads to sea level rise, whereas melting sea ice has minimal

impact. To understand why this is, imagine a jug of ice and water. As the ice warms

and melts, the total volume of water in the jug does not change, so the water level

stays the same. It’s the same with sea ice – when it melts, it does not change the

volume of water in the sea.

Melting land ice is different. It adds water to the sea. This is similar to adding

more water to the jug of ice and water. The volume of water in the jug increases – and

will overflow if too much is added.

Although melting sea ice does not cause sea level rise, it does have other

implications for the global climate. Sea ice has a light-coloured surface and reflects

some of the sunlight that hits it. When sea ice melts, it exposes the darker sea surface,

which absorbs solar energy (heat). This causes further temperature rises and causes

more ice to melt.

C. Thermal Expansion and Sea Level Rise

Warming seawater also causes sea level rise. Water expands when it warms

up heat energy makes its molecules move around more and take up more space.

Because the molecules are more spread out, the density decreases. The warming of

Earth is primarily due to accumulation of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, and more

than 90 percent of this trapped heat is absorbed by the oceans. As this heat is

absorbed, ocean temperatures rise and water expands. This thermal expansion
contributes to an increase in global sea level. Temperature measurements of the sea

surface, taken by ships, satellites and drifting sensors, along with subsurface

measurements and observations of global sea-level rise, have shown that the warming

of the upper ocean caused sea level to rise due to thermal expansion in the 20th

century. Using measurements from Argo profiling floats, we know this warming has

continued, causing roughly one-third of the global sea-level rise observed by satellite

altimeters since 2004.

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