Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vo Van Thuong Resigns as
Vietnam’s President – 4
March 21, 2024

We request your assessment about the resignation of Vietnamese President Vo Van

Thuong.
Q1. The ruling Vietnam Communist Party said Thuong resigned due to “violations” and
“shortcomings” after only a year in office. What do you make of that?
ANSWER: It is unclear from the official party announcement precisely what party
regulations Vo Van Thuong violated and when these violations took place.
Social media commentary strongly suggests the violations took place in 2012 when
Thuong was party secretary of Quang Ngai province. Either Thuong failed to properly
supervise subordinate provincial officials under him or he or a family member directly
benefited from a road development scheme that was awarded after provincial officials
were paid bribes.
Thuong has been vetted many times for higher office since his term as Quang Ngai
province party secretary ended in 2014. The question that arises is why has this case
surfaced after twelve years? This leads to the supposition that the Minister of Public
Security To Lam is getting rid of possible rivals in a bid to stay on in power after the
fourteenth party congress in early 2026.
Q2. Who do you believe will be picked as the next president?
ANSWER: This is likely to be a two-step process. The National Assembly is likely to
appoint the current vice president, Tran Thi Anh Xuan as acting president in the
interim. Next, the Central Committee will have to decide who will serve as president
for the remaining term of office that ends in May 2026. There appear to be two likely
candidates, To Lam and Truong Thi Mai, Permanent Member of the Secretariat.
Q3. Thuong is the second president who has been forced to resign within a year in
Vietnam. In your view, how would this reshuffle influence the country’s political
stability?
ANSWER: Last year the eighth Central Committee plenum commenced planning for
the next national party congress; this included appointing a personnel sub-committee
headed by General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong to vet and nominate candidates for
the new Central Committee. Ordinarily this would be a multi-stage process right up to
the eve of the national congress in which several straw polls would be taken to
determine the support that each prospective candidate has. Thuong’s abrupt
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resignation will have the effect of speeding up this process and exposing differences
within the leadership.
Q4. Do you think Vietnam’s deepening political upheaval will undermine investor
confidence?
ANSWER: These events are taking place while an American business mission of
approximately fifty companies are currently visiting Vietnam. They will be reassured
by their Vietnamese counterparts that Vietnam will remain on a steady course.
Vietnam made an orderly transition after the death of President Tran Dai Quang and
there is no reason why that won’t be able to do so now.
Q5. Would the leadership changes have an impacts on the country’s strategic
orientation in foreign policy, particularly its multi-alignment between the US and
China?
ANSWER: No. These policies are set in stone and are the result of collective decision-
making by the Central Committee and Politburo. Individual personalities do not have
a decisive impact. The state president follows the script he is given.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vo Van Thuong Resigns as Vietnam’s President
– 4,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, March , 2024. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

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