Environment & Technology Futures

Andrew Robinson March 8 2011

Economic Environment & Global Context

Canadas Endogenous Barriers to Increasing Innovative Products & Services as a proportion of National Output
Efficient adaptation strategy that favours commodity production Market structure that discourages competition based on technology leadership Competition policy that allows market leaders to set the innovation pace. Government programs designed for S&T rather than innovation policy. (Source: Stanley, Cardwells Law)

Two Approaches to Completing Stimulus Summary Track Templates

Top-Down (Harder) Working with little detailed data right to the answer
Produce a time track mindmap like my example for Virtualisation- if you dont have mindmap-use a word hierarchy or paper and shoot with camera Converge the key productised events into the stimulus summary matrix [this is the very hard step]

Two Approaches to Completing Summary Template

Bottom-Up (Easier) More Detail to Less
Complete a spreadsheet as was done for Health, Medical Bio by Marcus Converge Your Key event track up into the summary matrix

For the intensive info analytic enthusiasts do both:) and see how the results compare?

Soldier Systems (IC) Technology Readiness Level

See Attached Soldier Systems Examples for Emerging Technologies and Power Tracks Emerging Technologies- SSRM1-4.pdf Power Related Technologies
SSP3.pdf Storage Battery Tech SSP4.pdf Management SSP5.pdf Fuel Cells We should be mapping only technologies/environment events at a TRL8-9 level for the 2017/2040 timepoints on each of our stimulus summary matrices. I much prefer use of the Cell Platform Commercialisation

Cell Commercialisation Lifecycle

Top -Down Path

Virtual Tracks

Advanced Software, Tools, Platforms & Ecosystems Presentation

Virtualisation Andrew Robinson
Tech Domain 1. Virtual Processing 2011
Production moving from dev/test into production applications

Top-Down Worked EXAMPLE

2020 2040
100% Production runs on Virtual Platforms Nearly infinite processing is available very inexpensively either locally or from massive green regional data and processing centres

So What?
Allows most workloads to be run, scaled on most platforms independent of operating system, hardware, microprocessor. Stove piped application/service vendor lockins are gone. Most code running is open source, creative commons or no ownership. Relative importance (life cost) of information storage has increased in system cost due to growth. Will reverse between 2011-2020

90% All Production Workloads are Virtual Facilitates Proper Disater Recovery/Business Continuity in ever bigger Data Centers BI allows your own view of global internet info for 40K in capital Global discovery of info and services is faciliated by specialise agents, avatars now with personality traitssentience

2. Storage Virtual Holographic Quantum

Resistance to spending on information protection at Rest & In transit declines: Cyber Warfare booms Moving from dev/test eval production applications 10-100MB BW to the Mobile Phone in Lab

Cyber Information Security based on Quantum Encryption, Compression is globally deployed Cyber Warfare/Security finally resolved by broad deployment of Quantum based Identity, Authentication & Authorisation

3. Networks IP4->IP6 Wireless Broadband

Mobile Smart Paper/Micro projectors with integrated 100MB broadband access

Massive infrastructure costs to migrate between 2011-2020 (5B estimate for Government of Canada) forces consolidation to global regional data centres from national level for scale needed to be green. After a brief period 2009-2010 of proprietorisation of mobile phones, tablet, paper, book readers and remote projectors becomestandardised globally.

Suggested Max 5 slides 3 ideas per page bullet form text (minimum text)

Bottom-Up Path

25 Probability of Occurrence

50 2037

75

100

Track Event Description

Healthcare Events (Probable based on current/anticipated knowledge) Multidimensional Dynamic Displays. Real time holograms for surgery, patient interaction, training Image Gloves. Bare hand control Voice Control. Tracking, recognition Smart Rooms, homes. Whole body location sensing to treat patients and train staff Smart clothes. Neural interfaces. Bio-signal monitoring High performance medical robots. Intelligent, remotely programmable, teletherapy Smart micro probes Hospital Palmtops for synchronous diagnosis and therapy Portable medical lasers that seal wounds

2017

2022

2027

2032

x x x x x x x x x

Technology right next to clinical care and the patient Using biometrics, RFID, and barcode to establish patient identity before treatment administration. Bedside clinical information displays to keep patients engaged in their own care. Computer navigation x Interoperable health information infrastructure enables data mining of medical records to improve care at bedside and improve clinical trial efficiency. Examination of efficacy of past treatment regimes and outcomes. Treatment recommendations. The convergence of broadband penetration into homes and the emergence of more sophisticated portable medical devices is creating an opportunity for harnessing innovative technology to push the point of healthcare delivery to the home. Telemonitoring and v Improved patient empowerment via mashup technologies. Treatment options, scheduling, self treatment Anti-fat and associated diabetes drugs are available x Targeted drug delivery Acute spinal injuries are fully treatable x Complete organ replacements grown from stem cells Bathrooms that monitor not just what we excrete but also analyze our skin color and tone as we look in the mirror are just the beginning. Images and sensors could record everything we eat and all medicines we take, providing far better analysis on the eff Tooth regeneration is transforming dental care Physician selection of drug regimes based on physiological and biochemical profiles Cancer, implants Bone, tissue repair Deafness is fully curable Medical nanobots are being developed Neuron digital interfaces with environment and computers Robots and artificial intelligence will have manifold roles in healthcare, including avatar doctors, exoskeletons for nurses, and automated surgery. As Ive written before, one of the most important tools will be emotional robots, that can demonstrate emp Prediction of drug ADMET. Absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion, toxicology Designer food and nutrition programs AIDS, cancer and a plethora of other diseases are becoming curable Stem cell pharmacies are commonplace New types of drugs based on human genome or structural genomics or biomimetics

Are electronic medical information and decision-making systems clinically reliable for genetic information management? How will health professionals overcome the barriers to implement data health management and evaluation systems that have family and cros Life expectancy (in developed countries) continues to increase increases by two years continuing to aggravate the existing aging of the population. The implications for healthcare would include not just new treatments, but a massive increase in aged care Populace expects fitness experiences that are customized for each persons age, gender, location, spending power and personal preferences. Virtual training and fitness first via the internet and then via implants

11 20

e at St

m op el ev d of

t en ts n ti o va no In el od m 40 20 ts n ti o va no In el od m tos ce m or B

t ak re

hs ug ro h

dre ui q (re

su as

17 20

ec sp ro p

ec sp ro p

rf pe

Track Event Description

Healthcare Events (Probable based on current/anticipated knowledge) Displays available and in regular use. Patient interaction initiated

Some capabilities. Multidimensional Dynamic Displays. Real time holograms for surgery, patient interaction, Not yet in medical training domain Image Gloves. Bare hand control Voice Control. Tracking, recognition

Smart Rooms, homes. Whole body location sensing to treat patients and train staff Smart clothes. Neural interfaces. Bio-signal monitoring High performance medical robots. Intelligent, remotely programmable, teletherapy Smart micro probes

Hospital Palmtops for synchronous diagnosis and therapy Portable medical lasers that seal wounds

Programs initiated Some technologies ready. No integration Some technologies ready. No integration Some technologies ready. No integration Some technologies ready. No integration. Not commercial Prototypes

Homes wired and in testing in retirement and managed care facilities Some field testing Some field testing Initial commercial products envisioned Leading hospitals adopt Leading hospitals adopt

Technology right next to clinical care and the patient Using biometrics, RFID, and barcode to establish patient identity before treatment administration. Bedside clinical information Some technologies Leading hospitals displays to keep patients engaged in their own care. Computer navigation ready. No integration adopt Interoperable health information infrastructure enables data mining of medical records to improve care at bedside and improve clinical trial efficiency. Examination of efficacy of past treatment regimes and outcomes. Treatment recommendations. Hospitals and provider integration initiated Homes wired and in The convergence of broadband penetration into homes and the emergence of more Some technologies testing in retirement sophisticated portable medical devices is creating an opportunity for harnessing innovative ready. No integration. and managed care technology to push the point of healthcare delivery to the home. Telemonitoring and v Not commercial facilities Hospitals and Improved patient empowerment via mashup technologies. Treatment options, scheduling, Some technologies provider integration self treatment ready. No integration initiated Awareness. Some Clinical trials Anti-fat and associated diabetes drugs are available pharma products. underway Some organ targeting Targeted drug delivery possible Initial clinical trials Animal work Acute spinal injuries are fully treatable promising Increased acceptance and pay Complete organ replacements grown from stem cells Initiated per usage common Bathrooms that monitor not just what we excrete but also analyze our skin color and tone Managed care and as we look in the mirror are just the beginning. Images and sensors could record Some technologies hospitals examine everything we eat and all medicines we take, providing far better analysis on the eff ready. No integration potential Clinical trials Tooth regeneration is transforming dental care envisioned Some algorithms. Initial companies started.

11 20

e at St

ve de of

pm lo

t en ts ec sp o pr n In el od m 40 20 ct pe os pr s

17 20

n ti o va o

Track Event Description

Healthcare Events (Probable based on current/anticipated knowledge)

Abstracted Summary Matrix

Some capabilities. Multidimensional Dynamic Displays. Real time holograms for surgery, patient interaction, Not yet in medical training (eg. Image Gloves, bare hand control; Voice Control, tracking, recognition) domain Robots and artificial intelligence will have manifold roles in healthcare, including avatar doctors, exoskeletons for nurses, and automated surgery. Emotional robots, that can demonstrate empathy and help patients in their recovery. High performance medi

Displays available and in regular use. Patient interaction initiated Hospitals and provider integration initiated

new business opportunities and improvements in technology

Smart clothes and ongoing (interactive) physiological monitoring.. Neural interfaces. Bio- Some technologies signal monitoring ready. No integration Some field testing

Technological challenges and functionality improvements to overcome bulk, use by first adopters

Neuron digital interfaces with environment and computers

Smart micro probes, Medical nanobots are being developed

Hospital Palmtops for synchronous diagnosis and therapy

Animal experimentation advanced. Clinical trials anticipated. Animal experimentation Some technologies advanced. Clinical trials ready. No integration anticipated. Some technologies ready. No integration. Initial commercial applications Leading hospitals adopt Awareness. Some academic progress.

Advancement of technologies that will / may be integrated. new functionality enables an infrastructure leaps

infrastructure in place to enable communication

Clinical care Using biometrics to establish patient identity and background before treatment administration.

Some technologies ready. No integration Leading hospitals adopt

Bedside clinical information displays to keep patients engaged in their own care.

Some algorithms. Clinical trial efficiency via prediction of drug ADMET. Absorption, distribution, metabolism, Initial companies excretion, toxicology started.

Hospitals and provider integration initiated

Technological challenges remain and initial proof of cross species agreement to be proven.

Bottom-Up Health Stimulus Template

11 20 a St te pm lo ve de of t en 17 20 ts ec sp o pr no In ti va on o m l de 40 20 ct pe os pr s
n io at ov o m l de tos ce rm fo r pe B t ak re hs ug ro h n In C

d ire qu re (

?) ed m u ss -a

Track Event Description

Healthcare Events (Probable based on current/anticipated knowledge)

Some capabilities. Multidimensional Dynamic Displays. Real time holograms for surgery, patient interaction, Not yet in medical training (eg. Image Gloves, bare hand control; Voice Control, tracking, recognition) domain Robots and artificial intelligence will have manifold roles in healthcare, including avatar doctors, exoskeletons for nurses, and automated surgery. Emotional robots, that can demonstrate empathy and help patients in their recovery. High performance medi

Displays available and in regular use. Patient interaction initiated Hospitals and provider integration initiated

new business opportunities and improvements in technology

existing and new technology platforms adopted in hospital and medical settings

Real time robotic control in surgery and interaction w/ patients

Home healthcare becomes possible Populace expects fitness experiences that are customized for each persons age, gender, location, spending power and personal preferences. Home rehabilitation increases while predictive medicine possible. Virtual training and fitness first via the internet and then via implants

Smart clothes and ongoing (interactive) physiological monitoring.. Neural interfaces. Bio- Some technologies signal monitoring ready. No integration Some field testing

Technological challenges and functionality improvements to overcome bulk, use by first adopters

Neuron digital interfaces with environment and computers

Smart micro probes, Medical nanobots are being developed

Hospital Palmtops for synchronous diagnosis and therapy

Animal experimentation advanced. Clinical trials anticipated. Animal experimentation Some technologies advanced. Clinical trials ready. No integration anticipated. Some technologies ready. No integration. Initial commercial applications Leading hospitals adopt Awareness. Some academic progress.

Advancement of technologies that will / may be integrated. new functionality enables an infrastructure leaps

Initial testing in critical patients and Addressing anticipated regulatory high risk/benefit athletes & militia issues. Patient acceptance value chain efficiencies created in hospitals and pharma industry. Functionality and efficiency increases. New businesses and business models develop w/ providers and payers Predictive medicine and efficacy of therapy now possible Decreases in insurance fraud; cost of treatment, use of ineffective drugs. Clinical trial costs decrease

infrastructure in place to enable communication

Clinical care Using biometrics to establish patient identity and background before treatment administration.

Some technologies ready. No integration Leading hospitals adopt

Bedside clinical information displays to keep patients engaged in their own care.

Algorithm-driven diagnosis is already well tried and tested and will be implemented in EMR to bring about cost-effective diagnosis and increasingly, the same will apply to the treatment of chronic diseases.

Computer navigation via integration of a multitude of medical imaging datasets through the real-time display of anatomy during surgery. This will be taken further via telemedicine, head up displays and haptics feedback technologies. Knowledge bases will i

Some algorithms. Clinical trial efficiency via prediction of drug ADMET. Absorption, distribution, metabolism, Initial companies excretion, toxicology started.

Hospitals and provider integration initiated

Technological challenges remain and initial proof of cross species agreement to be proven.

More rapid and less costly pharmaceutical and biomedical device Regulatory controls to be overcome approval brings new products and and first adopter value in the clinic technologies to market. New being addressed products and services launched.

Personalised Medicine Will Dominate HC Industry

Current Health Value Chain

Future Health Care Value Chain

Some Conclusions for Canada

Canada has much of what the world needs (natural resources, food, energy and knowledge). But these will not be enough after 2020 to maintain Canada on a high income track without productivity-enhancing innovation as well as high workforce participation. The productivity challenge is major and could destroy Canada as a political entity if the per capita earnings gap with the US becomes too large. That means changing the way Canada does business to focus on building an innovative knowledge-based economy with a value added, high quality orientation. Green shift represents a a major challenge and opportunity. But only a few yearsto 2020-- remain to build capacity to get into the game.

Innovation opp