Probability

• Use the formulae of permutations and combinations in simple cases.

• Apply addition and multiplication rule
To find the number of ways of:
Case 1: Unlike Objects in a Line
Exp: Apple, orange, pineapple, pear, mango, and durian are arranged in a line.
The number of ways = 𝒏! 𝑛 is total number of objects
= 6! 6! 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛𝑠 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1
= 720
Case 2: Some Alike Objects in a Line
Exp: 2 oranges, 5 durians and 3 mangos are arranged in a line.
𝒏!
The number of ways = 𝒂!×𝒃!×𝒄!
10!
= 2!×5!×3!

= 2520
Exp: 2 oranges, 5 durians, 3 mangos and a pineapple are arranged randomly in a line. What is the
probability of 3 mangos are together at the beginning of the arrangement?
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑜𝑓 3 𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑜𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑡𝑜𝑔𝑒𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟
𝒏(𝑨)
Probability of an event = 𝒏(𝑺)
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒
8!
𝑛(3 𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑜𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑡𝑜𝑔𝑒𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟) = Think of 3 mangos are fixed together, become one set
2! × 5!
(don’t have to calculate). So, just have to calculate the
= 168 remaining one. That’s why is 8!
11!
𝑛(𝑠𝑢𝑚) =
2! × 5!
= 166320
𝑛(𝐴)
𝑃(3 𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑜𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑡𝑜𝑔𝑒𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟) =
𝑛(𝑆)
168
= 166320

= 0.001010
Case 3: Unlike Objects Arranged in A Ring (Free Seating – sit anywhere u like)
Exp: Find the number of ways of arranging if 7 students are seated at a round table.
The number of ways = (𝒏 − 𝟏)!
= (7 − 1)!
= 720
Exp: 4 men, 2 women and a child sit at a round table. Find the number of ways of arranging if the child
is seated between the two women?
The number of ways = (5 − 1)! × 2! M
M
= 48 2! is the arrangement
between 2 women.
W
M
Think of 3 of this
(highlighted in yellow) C
is a set, cannot be M
separable. So, there’s 5 W
groups to arranged. W – woman
M – man
C – child

Exp: 4 men, 2 women and a child sit at a round table. Find the number of ways of arranging if the child
is seated between the two men?
The number of ways = (5 − 1)! × 4C2 × 𝟐! M
W
= 288

Choose 2 from 4 men M

and then arrange
between those 2. M

C
Alternative of writing 4C2 × 𝟐! is 4P2.
W
n n
P2 = Cr × r! M

Case 4: Combination (choose only, don’t need arrange)

n 𝒏!
Cr =
𝒓! (𝒏−𝒓)!

Exp: There’s 4 apples, 3 bananas, 2 lemons and a pineapple. Jack wants to buy 6 fruits. Find the number
of ways that can be done if it has to include
a) 1 lemon Small Trick:
2 8
The number of ways = C1 × C5
2
= 112
C1 × 8C5
Sum of numbers in red is the total number of fruits can be chosen
b) 2 apples
Sum of numbers in blue is the number of fruits that Jack wants
The number of ways = 4C2 × 6C4
= 90
Exp: In how many ways can the letters of word STATISTICS be arranged if two I s are separated?
S T A T S T C S Step 1: Take out I s.

Step 2: Mark those possible places for I to

The number of ways insert with arrow.
8!
= 9C2 × 3!×3!

= 40320
Case 5: Addition rule (normally use tgt with combination)
Exp: A team of 4 is chosen at random from 5 girls and 6 boys.
In how many ways can the team be chosen if
a) There are no restrictions.
Number of ways = 11C4
= 330
b) There must be more boys than girls. × 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑
It can be: 4B + 0G // 3B + 1G
Number of ways = (6C4 × 5C0) + (6C3 × 5C1) + 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛𝑠 𝑜𝑟
= 115
Case 6: Permutation (choose and arrange)
n 𝒏!
Pr = (𝒏−𝒓)!

Exp: There’s 5 books but there are only 2 spaces on the book shelf. Find the number of ways of
arrangement.
Choose 2 from 5 of them and arrange
The number of ways = 5P2 or 5C2 × 2! between the two books (can put it either
= 20 left or right side)

Exp: 3 letters are selected from the word STATISTICS. Find the number of different 3-letter selections
and also arrangement that can be made that contain:
a) no I
10 letters minus 2 I s left 8 letters. So, 3 letters have to select from the remaining 8 letters.
Selection: 8C3 = 56
Arrangement: 8C3 × 3! =336
b) one I
Select one I from two I s and select 2 letters from the remaining 8 letters.
Selection: 2C1 × 8C2 = 56
Arrangement: 2C1 × 8C2 × 3! = 336
c) two I’s
Select all I’s and select a letter from the remaining 8 letters.
Selection: 2C2 × 8C1 = 8
3!
Arrangement: 2C2 × 8C1 × 2! = 24
Case 7: Multiplication Rule
Exp: A ten digit of number is formed using the digits 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 in some order. No number
is allowed to start with 0. Find how many numbers formed are odd.

Second one still can choose Number of odd numbers formed

from 8 numbers as now u can
choose 0 as well. =8×8×7×6×5×4×3×2×1×5
= 1612800
8 × 8 × 7 × 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 × 5

To make the numbers

Cannot start with 0. odd, last digit has to be 1,
3, 5, 7 or 9 (5 choices).
Left 8 numbers to choose and
fill in the first space.

Exp: How many 4-digits even numbers are between 3000 and 7000, using digits 1, 3, 6 and 8 if:
a) no repetition is allowed.

After choosing the 1st and last digits, available

numbers left 2 as u cannot repeatedly choose
those that have been chosen.

2 × 2 × 1 × 2 To make the numbers

even, last digit has to be
either 6 or 8.
Number of even numbers formed
Can only be either 3 or 6 to let
=2×2×1×2
the numbers fall between
3000 and 7000 =8

b) repetition of digits is allowed

2nd and 3rd digit can be any digits (1, 3, 6 or 8)

as repetition is allowed.

2 × 4 × 4 × 2 To make the numbers

even, last digit has to be
either 6 or 8.
Number of even numbers formed
Can only be either 3 or 6 to let
=2×4×4×2
the numbers fall between
3000 and 7000 = 64
• Identify a sample space, and calculate the probability of an event.
• Identify complementary, exhaustive and mutually exclusive events.
Sample space – contain the entire set of possible outcomes

Complementary events – the event not A, usually denoted as A’

P(A’) = 1 – P(A)
Exhaustive events – events that contain all of the outcomes in the sample space
P(𝑨 ∪ 𝑩) = P(A) + P(B) – P(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩)
Mutually exclusive events – events that do not have any outcomes in common
𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) = 𝟎
Other useful formula:
𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩′) = 𝑷(𝑨) − 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩)

𝑷(𝑨′ ∩ 𝑩′) = 𝑷(𝑨 ∪ 𝑩)′

• Calculate conditional probabilities, and identify independent events.

Conditional Probabilities – keywords in the question: if/ given

𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩)
𝑷(𝑨/𝑩) =
𝑷(𝑩)
Independent events – The outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of other.
𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) × 𝑷(𝑩)
Calculate the Probability of An Event:
Case 1: Using Formula
Exp 1:
1 2 1
𝑃(𝐴) = 4 , 𝑃(𝐵) = 3 , 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵) = 3 , find

a) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) b) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵′ ) c) 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵′)

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵′)

𝑃(𝐴/𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ′)
= 𝑃(𝐴) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 𝑃(𝐵′)
1 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵′ )
1 2 =
= = − 1−𝑃(𝐵)
3 2 4 9 1
3 1 = 36
2
2 = 1−
3
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 36 1
9 = 12

Exp 2:
1 3 2
Given that 𝑃(𝐴) = , 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵) = , 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵′) = , 𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑑
2 7 3

a) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
3 2
𝑃(𝐴/𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵′) =
7 3
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 3 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵′ ) 2
= =
𝑃(𝐵) 7 𝑃(𝐵′ ) 3
3 𝑃(𝐴) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 2
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵) − − − 1 =
7 1 − 𝑃(𝐵) 3
2
𝑃(𝐴) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = (1 − 𝑃(𝐵)) − − − 2
3
Sub 1 into 2,
3 2
𝑃(𝐴) − 𝑃(𝐵) = (1 − 𝑃(𝐵)) From 1,
7 3
2 3 2 3 7
𝑃(𝐴) − = 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = ( )
3 7 3 7 10
7 3
𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) =
10 10
Exp 3:
1
A, B, C and D are mutually exclusive. 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐷) = 6

Event E included event A, B and C. 𝑃(𝐸) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶)

Event F included event C and D. 𝑃(𝐹) = 𝑃(𝐶 ∪ 𝐷)
Find the probability of a) event E or F
b) Event E and F
Step 1: Understand the term mutually
exclusive. A B
Mutually exclusive means two events do
not have common outcomes. (means -Event E
there’s no intersection)
- Event F
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0
C D
Step 2: Draw diagram for better
understanding.

b) 𝑃(𝐸 ∪ 𝐹) 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) = 𝑃(𝐸) + 𝑃(𝐹) − 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹)

a) 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹)
1 3 2 1
= 1 OR = + −
= ×4 6 6 6
6 6 2
2 =3
=
3
 Case 2: Condition
𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩)
𝑷(𝑨/𝑩) =
𝑷(𝑩)
Event B occurs first then follows with Event A.

Exp 1:
There are five red balls and four yellow balls in Box A. Box B has six red balls and three yellow balls. A ball
is randomly selected from Box A and its colour is noted and put into Box B. A second ball is then drawn
from Box B at random. Determine the probability of:
a) The second ball is red
Remarks:
Question summary: Box A : 𝑛(𝑅) = 5, 𝑛(𝑌) = 4
R – red 1 means first ball
Box B : 𝑛(𝑅) = 6, 𝑛(𝑌) = 3
Y – yellow 2 means second ball

Second ball must be red, first ball can either be yellow or red.
𝑃(𝑅2 )
= 𝑃(𝑌1 𝑅2 ) + 𝑃(𝑅1 𝑅2 )
4 6 5 7
=( × )+( × )
9 10 9 10 Trap:
First chosen ball is in red.
Trap: Thus, the number of red balls
in Box B is 7 instead of 6.
After choosing the first ball,
the chosen first ball in placed
into the Box B. So, the total
number of balls become 10
instead of 9.

59
=
90

b) The two balls drawn have different colours

𝑃(2 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠 𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠)
= 𝑃(𝑌1 𝑅2 ) + 𝑃(𝑅1 𝑌2 )
4 6 5 3
=( × )+( × )
9 10 9 10
13
=
30
c) The second ball is yellow given that the first ball is red

Keywords for conditional probability.

𝑃(𝑌2 / 𝑅1 )
𝑃(𝑌2 ∩ 𝑅1 )
=
𝑃(𝑅1 )
5 3 Using multiplication rule, picking red balls
9 × 10
in Box A first and then yellow balls in Box
= 5
9 B.
3
=
10

Exp 2:
A bag contains a red ball, 2 white balls, 3 red cubes and 4 white cubes. Three objects are drawn randomly
from the bag, one by one without replacement.
Event B2: exactly two balls are drawn (in other words, 2 balls + 1 cube)
Event R1: exactly one object drawn is red
7
Show that 𝑃(𝐵2) = and calculate 𝑃(𝑅1 ), 𝑃(𝐵2 ∩ 𝑅1), 𝑃(𝐵2 ∪ 𝑅1) 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃(𝐵2/𝑅1)
40

White Red Total (objects)

Balls 2 1 3
Cubes 4 3 7
Total (colour) 6 4 10

𝑃(𝐵2) = 𝑃(2𝐵, 1𝐶)

3𝐶2×7𝐶1
= 10𝐶3
7
= 40 (shown)

𝑃(𝑅1) = 𝑃(1𝑅, 2𝑊)

4𝐶1×6𝐶2
= 10𝐶3
1
=2
Pick 2 balls and 1 red objects.
𝑃(𝐵2 ∩ 𝑅1) = 𝑃(1𝑅𝐵, 1𝑊𝐵, 1𝑊𝐶) + 𝑃(2𝑊𝐵, 1𝑅𝐶)
(1𝐶1×2𝐶1×4𝐶1) 2𝐶2×3𝐶1 Option: 1 red ball, 1 white ball, 1 white cube
= 10𝐶3
+ 10𝐶3
2 white ball, 1 red cube
11
= 120 Cannot be: 2 red ball, 1 white cube
1 red ball, 1 white ball, 1 red cube
 𝑃(𝐵2 ∩ 𝑅1)
𝑃(𝐵2/𝑅1) =
𝑃(𝑅1)
11
120
1
= 2
11
= 60

𝑃(𝐵2 ∪ 𝑅1) = 𝑃(𝐵2) + 𝑃(𝑅1) − 𝑃(𝐵2 ∩ 𝑅1)

7 1 11
= 40 + 2 − 120
7
= 12

Case 3: Tree Diagram

Exp 1:
The delivery service in a certain town is provided by 3 companies, X, Y and Z in percentages of 20%, 45%
and 35% respectively. The probabilities that the parcel is delivered by motorcycle from companies X, Y and Z
are 0.8, 0.7 and 0.6 respectively. A parcel delivery service is selected randomly. Find the probability that
a) The parcel is delivered by motorcycle
b) The parcel is from company Y given that the delivery service is by motorcycle
0.8
M
Remarks:
X
0.2 M – motorcycle
0.2 M’
0.7 M’ – other transport
0.45
Y M

M’
0.6 0.3
0.35 M
Z
Always check the total probability of branches
0.4 M’ coming out from one node is 1.

a) 𝑃(𝑀) = 𝑃(𝑋𝑀) + 𝑃(𝑌𝑀) + 𝑃(𝑍𝑀)

= (0.2 × 0.8) + (0.45 × 0.7) + (0.35 × 0.6)
= 0.685

𝑃(𝑌∩𝑀)
b) 𝑃(𝑌/𝑀) = 𝑃(𝑀)
0.45×0.7
= 0.685
= 0.4599
Exp 2:

A fisherman has the choice of fishing at sea, in a river or a lake every day. The probability that he fishes at
sea, in a river and at a lake are 0.5, 0.25 and 0.25 respectively. If he fishes at sea, his chances of fishing some
fish are 80%, while his chances at the river and lake are 40% and 60% respectively.

a) Find the probability of the fisherman catches fish on a randomly-selected day.

b) Determine the place he most probably went to fish if he couldn’t catch any fish
c) Another fisherman who also goes fishing every day picks one of the three places randomly with the
probability of 1/3 respectively. Find the probability that the two fishermen meet on a day picked
randomly.

0.8 C
S
0.5
0.2 C’
0.25 0.4
R C

C’
0.6 0.6
0.25 C
L

0.4 C’

a) 𝑃(𝐶) = 𝑃(𝑆𝐶) + 𝑃(𝑅𝐶) + 𝑃(𝐿𝐶)

= (0.5 × 0.8) + (0.25 × 0.4) + (0.25 × 0.6)
= 0.65
𝑃(𝑆∩𝐶 ′ )
b) 𝑃(𝑆/𝐶 ′ ) = 𝑃(𝐶 ′ )
0.5×0.2
= 1−0.65
= 0.2857
𝑃(𝑅 ∩ 𝐶 ′ ) Need to use conditional probability due to the
𝑃(𝑅/𝐶 ′ ) =
𝑃(𝐶 ′ ) condition that the fisherman couldn’t get any fish.
0.25×0.6
= 1−0.65
Can’t just only use P(SC), P(RC) and P(LC).
= 0.4286
𝑃(𝐿 ∩ 𝐶 ′ )
𝑃(𝐿/𝐶 ′ ) =
𝑃(𝐶 ′ )
0.25×0.4
= 1−0.65
=0.2857

He mostly fish in the river that day. (highest probability that he can’t get any fish)
1 1 1
c) 𝑃(𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑦 𝑚𝑒𝑒𝑡) = (0.5 × 3) + (0.25 × 3) + (0.25 × 3)
1
=
3