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4. Methodology ............................................................................................. 8
6. Expected outputs.......................................................................................13
9. Work schedule...........................................................................................17
10. References………………………………………………................................17
Reconstruction of flow regimes of Borkena catchment for irrigation development using rainfall-runoff modeling Page1
Where
yi and xi are the discharge and rainfall respectively at the i-th time-step,
hj = jth ordinate of the pulse response function
ei = the ith error term.
Solution Technique: is least square solution
^h = (XTX)-1(YTX) or
By substitution method:
n≤m
Qn= ∑ PmUn−m+1
m=1 , Where m = pulse of rainfall, n = pulse of runoff, Un = n-m+1
Solution Technique: h =( R
−1
T
R) ( QT R )
By Mezgebu Mewded, Department of Hydrology and WRM. Arba Minch University. November.2007
Reconstruction of flow regimes of Borkena catchment for irrigation development using rainfall-runoff modeling Page3
conceptual rainfall-runoff model introduced by O’Connell et al. (1970), its water-balance component
being based on the ‘Layers Water Balance Model’ proposed in 1969 by Nash and Sutcliffe (Clarke,
p.307, 1994). Using a number of empirical and assumed relations that are considered to be at least
physically plausible, the non-linear water balance (i.e. soil moisture accounting) component ensures
satisfaction of the continuity equation, over each time-step, i.e. it preserves the balance between the
rainfall, the evaporation, the generated runoff and the changes in the various elements (layers) of soil
moisture storage. The routing component, on the other hand, simulates the attenuation and the
diffusive effects of the catchment by routing the various generated runoff components through linear
time-invariant storage elements. For each time-step, the combined output of the two routing
elements adopted (i.e. one for generated ‘surface runoff’ and the other for generated ‘groundwater
By Mezgebu Mewded, Department of Hydrology and WRM. Arba Minch University. November.2007
Reconstruction of flow regimes of Borkena catchment for irrigation development using rainfall-runoff modeling Page4
Figure 1. Schematic diagram of the Soil Moisture Accounting and Routing (SMAR) Model
Structure:
I. for water balance component: Qvol = R-E-P±∆s
Where: Qvol = volume of runoff
R = rainfall
E = potential evapotranspiration
P = percolation
∆s = change in soil moisture storage
By Mezgebu Mewded, Department of Hydrology and WRM. Arba Minch University. November.2007
Reconstruction of flow regimes of Borkena catchment for irrigation development using rainfall-runoff modeling Page5
The Linearly Varying Gain Factor Model (LVGFM)
The LVGFM , proposed by Ahsan and O’Connor[1994] for the single-input to single-output
case, involves only the variation of the gain factor with the selected index of the prevailing
catchment wetness, but not the shape(i.e. the weights) of the response function. Using a time –
varying gain factor Gi, the model output has the structure
m m
Q=G j ∑ R i− j +1 B j , where ∑ B j= 1
j=1 j=1
In its simplest form, Gi is linearly related to an index of the soil moisture state z i by the equation Gi =
a + b zi, where a and b are constants. The value of zi is obtained from the output of naïve SLM,
operating as an auxiliary model, using:
¿
m ¿
G
Zi = − ∑ R i− j+ 1 h j
j=1
Q
¿
¿
h
Where G and j are estimates of the gain factor and the pulse response ordinates respectively of
By Mezgebu Mewded, Department of Hydrology and WRM. Arba Minch University. November.2007
Reconstruction of flow regimes of Borkena catchment for irrigation development using rainfall-runoff modeling Page6
parameters until they converge to values such that each input vector produces outputs as close as
possible to the desired target vectors.
(∑ )
m
Y out = f wi y i + wo
i =1 =f (Ynet) is the neuron net input,
Where f( ) denotes the transfer function, wi are the input connection pathway weights, m is the total
number of inputs (which equals the number of neurons in the preceding layer), and wo is the neuron
threshold (or bias).
The non-linear transfer function adopted for the neurons of the hidden and output layers is the
widely used logistic/sigmoid function
( )
m
1
f ∑ w i y i +w o =
( )
m
i =1 −σ ∑ wi yi +w o
i =1
1+ e
bounded in the range [0, 1]. The neuron weights wi, the threshold wo and ó can all be interpreted as
parameters of the network configuration.
If ‘l’ is the total number of neurons in the input layer and ‘m’ is the total number of neurons in the
hidden layer, then the total number of weights to be estimated for the ANN model is (l+1)m +
(m+1). The Simplex method is used for automatic optimization of the weights.
By Mezgebu Mewded, Department of Hydrology and WRM. Arba Minch University. November.2007
Reconstruction of flow regimes of Borkena catchment for irrigation development using rainfall-runoff modeling Page7
2. PROBLEM STATEMENT
The main problem I observed at Borkena catchment is that, the river has no enough
gauging stations to know its flow characteristics. This circumstance makes difficult to
develop the river for irrigation, and other water use purposes.
Even those gauged sites are not functioning well and have limited data records.
In such situation, reconstructing flow regimes using rainfall runoff modeling on the
principle of low flow analysis is helpful in determining the values of flow for each flow
duration for a given exceedence point which is useful for the design of structures on the
By Mezgebu Mewded, Department of Hydrology and WRM. Arba Minch University. November.2007
Reconstruction of flow regimes of Borkena catchment for irrigation development using rainfall-runoff modeling Page8
4. METHODOLOGY
By Mezgebu Mewded, Department of Hydrology and WRM. Arba Minch University. November.2007
Reconstruction of flow regimes of Borkena catchment for irrigation development using rainfall-runoff modeling
Page9
If N 1,N2,N3 and Nx represent rainfalls at stations 1,2,3,and X respectively; and
P1,P2,P3,and Px represent their respective precipitation data of the day for which the data is missing at
station X;then the missed data is calculated using:
Px = 3 N 1 [
Nx P 1 P 2 P 3
+
N 2
+
N3 ] [Provided any of N 1, N2, and N3 differs from Nx by
more than 10%.]
3. The data is checked for consistency using double mass curve method:-
M'
P' x= Px∗
M
Where P’x = corrected precipitation at station x
Px = original recorded precipitation at station x
M’ = corrected slope of double mass curve
M = original slope of double mass curve
4. Mean areal precipitation depth is computed using Thiessen’s polygon method as:
Pav. = P1A1 + P2A2 + - - - + Pn An
A1+A2 + - - - + An
m
∑ Pi Ai A
Or, Pav. = i=1
n
2
∑ [ ( Q o )i −( Q e ) i ]
R2 = 1 − i=1
n F1
∑ [ ( Q o ) i−Q o ]
2
R2 =1−
i =1 ,
Fo
By Mezgebu Mewded, Department of Hydrology and WRM. Arba Minch University. November.2007
Reconstruction of flow regimes of Borkena catchment for irrigation development using rainfall-runoff modeling Page10
Where:
Tmax = mean monthly maximum temperature, oC
Tmin = mean monthly minimum temperature, oC
Ra = extra terrestrial radiation, mm/day [1mm/day = 0.408MJ/m2day]
m
∑ [ ( Qo )i −( Qe ) i ]
2
R2 = 1− i=1
m F1
∑ [ ( Qo ) i−Q o ]
2
R2 =1−
i =1 ,
Fo
By Mezgebu Mewded, Department of Hydrology and WRM. Arba Minch University. November.2007
Reconstruction of flow regimes of Borkena catchment for irrigation development using rainfall-runoff modeling Page11
Relative Error to Peak (RE)
Index of Volumetric Fit (IVF)
By Mezgebu Mewded, Department of Hydrology and WRM. Arba Minch University. November.2007
Reconstruction of flow regimes of Borkena catchment for irrigation development using rainfall-runoff modeling Page12
Therefore,
Q T = X T ∗Q
For no data stations regionalization method is used.
Regionalization:- the basic criteria in applying regionalization method are geographical and
climatologically similarity.
A ug
Q ug = ∗Q g
Ag
Where: Qug = flow of ungauged, Qg = flow of gauged, Aug = area of ungauged Ag = area of
gauged
Here, since the number of stations is not greater than three, the multiple regression method can not
be used.
b. Generating Flow Duration Curve (FDC)
iii. Convert the 1D mean discharges in to 10D.
iv. Take the minimum 10D discharge from each year.
v. The daily stream data is arranged in a descending order of discharge
vi. Assign each discharge value a rank (m), starting with 1 for the largest daily discharge
value.
vii. Calculate exceedence probability (p) as follows:-
viii. If N number of data points is used in this listing, the plotting position of any
discharge Q is
m
P= ∗100 %
n
Where m is order number of the discharge (or class value)
By Mezgebu Mewded, Department of Hydrology and WRM. Arba Minch University. November.2007
Reconstruction of flow regimes of Borkena catchment for irrigation development using rainfall-runoff modeling Page13
P is percentage probability of the flow magnitude being equaled or exceeded.
ix. Construct FDC for different stations.
x. Determine the 80% 10 days dependable flows (Q80 (10)) for different stations from
the flow duration curve.
6. EXPECTED OUTPUTS
By Mezgebu Mewded, Department of Hydrology and WRM. Arba Minch University. November.2007
Reconstruction of flow regimes of Borkena catchment for irrigation development using rainfall-runoff modeling Page14
2 PERDIEM
C. Driver 870
3 TRAVEL EXPENSE
A. Student 3134
By Mezgebu Mewded, Department of Hydrology and WRM. Arba Minch University. November.2007
Reconstruction of flow regimes of Borkena catchment for irrigation development using rainfall-runoff modeling Page15
SERVICE COST
22 Internet and Telephone Services LS 600 600
Photocopying & scanning (drawings and
23 LS 1000 1000
supplementary materials)
Thesis compiling
24 LS 1500 1500
(Printing Binding, & encoding of data…)
Sub Total 1
12527
By Mezgebu Mewded, Department of Hydrology and WRM. Arba Minch University. November.2007
Reconstruction of flow regimes of Borkena catchment for irrigation development using rainfall-runoff modeling Page16
2. PERDIEM
A. Student /Researcher
Perdiem in
S.No Purpose of Travel Duty Station No days Total
Birr
1 Reconnaissance study Project Area 10 70 700.00
Supervision of research
6 activity with in the Project Area 15 120.00 1800
project area
Sub Total 2 8610
3. TRANSPORT EXPENSE
3 Arba Minch – A.A- X-X Round trip (By bus) 8 143.00 1144.00
Round trip (By Plane)
4 Arba Minch-A.A-X 2 1000 2000.00
For advisor/co-advisor
Round trip (By bus)
5 Arba Minch-A.A-X 6 103 618.00
Sub Total 3 5134.00
By Mezgebu Mewded, Department of Hydrology and WRM. Arba Minch University. November.2007
Reconstruction of flow regimes of Borkena catchment for irrigation development using rainfall-runoff modeling Page17
9. Work Schedule
Components of February March April May June
thesis work 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
1. preparatory works
Literature review
*
* * *
2. Data collection
a. Primary data * * * *
b.secondary
* * * *
3.Data analysis
4. Result and
conclusion works * * * *
5. First draft
preparation * * * *
6.Thesis writing
and completion of
* * * *
work
10. REFERENCES
1. Chow, V.T., Applied Hydrology, McGraw HILL INTERNATIONAL EDITIONS (1988). New
York.
2. Dr. Semu A. (2006/7). Advanced Deterministic Hydrology hand out. Arba Minch, Ethiopia.
3. International institute for infrastructural, hydraulic and environmental engineering
(IHE).Hydrological modeling concepts and modeling. Netherlands.
4. Genene Abera (2006) Inter Comparison of The Performance of Different Rainfall-Runoff
Hydrological Models, M.Sc.Thesis. Arba Minch, Ethiopia.
5. S.K. Garg (2005).Hydrology and water resources engineering (12th ed.).KHANNAN
publishers, New Delhi.
6.Tegenu Zerfu (2006) Low flow analysis of Blue Nile catchment. M.Sc.Thesis. Arba Minch,
Ethiopia.
6. Internet sources.
By Mezgebu Mewded, Department of Hydrology and WRM. Arba Minch University. November.2007
Reconstruction of flow regimes of Borkena catchment for irrigation development using rainfall-runoff modeling Page18
APPROVAL PAGE
SUBMITTED BY:
APPROVED BY:
By Mezgebu Mewded, Department of Hydrology and WRM. Arba Minch University. November.2007
Reconstruction of flow regimes of Borkena catchment for irrigation development using rainfall-runoff modeling Page19
By Mezgebu Mewded, Department of Hydrology and WRM. Arba Minch University. November.2007