Vietnam Food Drink Report

Q2 2024
www.fitchsolutions.com/bmi
Vietnam
Food And Drink R
Report
eport
Includes 5-year forecasts to 2028
Vietnam Food And Drink Report | Q2 2024
Contents
Key View............................................................................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 9
Food & Drink SWOT...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Industry Forecast.........................................................................................................................................................................10
Food .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................10
Drink.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................14
Industry Trends And Developments .....................................................................................................................................20

Vietnam ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................20
Market Overview..........................................................................................................................................................................26
Food .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................26
Drink.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................30
Mass Grocery Retail....................................................................................................................................................................................................................34
Competitive Landscape.............................................................................................................................................................37
Company Profile...........................................................................................................................................................................39
Carlsberg ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................39
Hanoi Beer Alcohol And Beverage Joint Stock Corporation ......................................................................................................................................41
Masan Consumer Corporation..............................................................................................................................................................................................43
Nestlé Vietnam............................................................................................................................................................................................................................46
Saigon Alcohol Beer And Beverages Corporation .........................................................................................................................................................48
Saigon Co-Op ...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................50
San Miguel Pure Foods Vietnam...........................................................................................................................................................................................52
Unilever Vietnam........................................................................................................................................................................................................................54
Vietnam Demographic Outlook ..............................................................................................................................................57
Food & Drink Glossary ................................................................................................................................................................61
Food & Drink Methodology .......................................................................................................................................................62
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Key View
Key View: We have an optimistic outlook for food and drink sales in Vietnam. Producers and retailers of food and beverages in the
market will benefit from population growth, rising urbanisation and increasing household incomes, which will see consumers rapidly
switching over to the formal, organised retail space and selecting higher value products. Diversifying demand, alongside
strengthening premiumisation and healthification trends, will lead to plentiful opportunities across the food, drink and mass grocery
retail sectors.
Strong Growth Forecast Over The Medium Term

Vietnam - Food & Non-Alcoholic Drinks Spending (2019-2028)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National statistics, BMI
Latest Updates And Industry Developments
• In 2024, we expect food sales in Vietnam to grow by 11.7% y-o-y to VND1,299.8trn (USD53.4bn). This robust increase will be
supported by a favourable macroeconomic environment, including low and stable inflation and accelerating real GDP growth,
which will stimulate consumer spending.
• Over the medium term, we forecast food spending to rise by an annual average of 10.9% in local currency terms and 9.7% in
USD terms to reach VND1,952.8trn (USD77.5bn) in 2028. Rising incomes underpin consumer tastes shifting towards higher-
value food product lines, which promises a receptive and growing audience for branded products.
• Healthification is gaining ground as consumers look closer at health benefits when tailoring their diets. Accordingly, fruit and
seafood will see strong spending growth over the medium term, while sugar and confectionery will underperform.
• In 2024, we forecast alcoholic drinks spending in Vietnam to increase by 11.8% y-o-y to come in at VND85.5trn
(USD3.5bn). Through to 2028, spending on alcoholic drinks is set to rise by an average of 11.0% a year in local currency terms
and 9.7% a year in USD terms, reaching VND128.8trn (USD5.1bn).
• Alcohol consumption is projected to expand by 4.3% in 2024 to 4.4bn litres. Over our medium-term forecast period to 2028, the
consumption of alcoholic drinks is expected to increase by an annual average of 3.7% to a total of 5.0bn litres. The much
stronger growth in sales values rather than volumes indicates that consumers will be purchasing fewer alcoholic drinks but
selecting more expensive products when they do.
• While beer will account for the vast majority of the growth in alcohol consumption, being by far the most consumed type of
alcoholic beverage in the market volumes of beer sold will tick up only slowly over the medium term. The wine and spirits
segments will benefit from strong double-digit annual increases in volumes sold during our forecast period, albeit from much
lower bases.
• Non-alcoholic drinks spending is forecast to rise by 10.5% y-o-y in 2024 to VND52.9trn (USD2.2bn) and an annual average of
9.9% in local currency terms and 8.7% in US dollar terms through to 2028 to VND76.9trn (USD3.0bn). The outperforming non-
alcoholic drinks segment is expected to be carbonated drinks, although hot drinks (predominantly coffee) will remain the most
popular non-alcoholic beverages in the market, with sales values around three times higher than the carbonated drinks
segment.
• In February 2024, Thailand-based Minor Food Group announced further expansion plans into the Vietnam market. One of the
brands under the Minor Food Group, Sizzler, opened its first location in Vietnam and the wider Minor Food Group has signed an
agreement to expand its The Coffee Club business in Vietnam. The Minor Food Group currently operates more than 100
locations in the Vietnam market and aims to double their network by 2026.
• In January 2024, Habeco announced that its post-tax profit for 2023 fell 30% to VND355bn (USD14.5mn), citing tighter
government regulation on drunk driving and an increasing difficult domestic economic environment.
• In January 2024, Saigon Co.op announced a strategic partnership with South Korea-based logistics firm CJ Logistics to
collectively operate a new logistics centre in Ho Chi Minh City currently under construction.
• In January 2024, Nestlé launched a new product, coffee liquid concentrates that is ready-to-drink and only requires consumers
to add an recommended serving of ice. The new product is capitalising on the convenience trend and increasingly time-poor
urban consumers.
• In January 2024, Nestlé announced a USD100mn investment into a production facility located in Tri An that would double their
existing package coffee production. This include brands such as Nescafé, Nespresso, Starbucks and Blue Bottle.
• In December 2023, Mainland China-based coffee chain Cotti Coffee expanded into the Vietnam market with its first stores
opening in Ho Chi Minh City.
• In December 2023, US-based investment firm Bain Capital announced an additional USD50mn investment into Masan Group
after a prior USD200mn investment announced in October 2023.
• In December 2023, South Korea-based food-delivery company Baemin announced that it has left the Vietnam market after four
years of operations. The company cited competition in the market and the headwinds resulting from economic weakness as the
key reason for the decision.
Inflation Outlook
Inflationary pressures will slowly ease over 2024, as central banks raise rates to rein in higher prices. Iinflation, especially for food
items, remains high. These higher prices are eroding nominal wage gains, squeezing the purchasing power of households and
shifting consumer spending away from discretionary spending. In many markets, a combination of higher wage inflation, localised
supply chain constraints and bottlenecks, and continued mismatches in demand and supply are all adding upward pressure to
prices. Similarly, the global pricing-in of geopolitical events and flashpoints will weigh on prices beyond the short term.
In Vietnam, consumer price inflation came in at 3.4% in January 2024 (latest available data), while food inflation came in at 2.3%,
having decreased from 2023 highs of 4.9% in January and 7.0% in August respectively. Our Country Risk team forecast inflation to
average 4.5% over 2024 and an end-of-year figure of 3.5%. Despite this slight increase, we do not believe that consumer purchasing
power will be eroded, as nominal wage growth remains robust.
Food Prices Inflation Will Remain Elevated Over 2024

Vietnam - Consumer Inflation Indicators, % y-o-y (2019-2024)
Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam, BMI
The wider economic challenges facing households and consumers stem from the reopening economy. Inflationary pressures are
driven by demand-pull and cost-push inflation. In an attempt to rein in inflation, central banks have hiked their policy rates at some
of the quickest rates ever, making much of the debt issued during the historically low interest rate period less valuable. Combined
with the tightening of quantitative easing, financial institutions face liquidity issues and severe interest rate risks. Other existing
issues, such as labour market dynamics and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to place downward pressure on our consumer
outlook. These issues combined risk the economic trajectory of many markets’ post-Covid recovery, highlighting the risk of
increasing unemployment and its impact on our consumer outlook in the short term. The graphic below summarises these risks to
the outlook over 2024.
Inflation Will Persist Over The Short Term

Global Drivers Of Inflation
Source: BMI
SWOT
Food & Drink SWOT
Strengths Weaknesses
• Western-style retail is already well established in large cities, • Wide income disparities exist between urban and rural areas.
so the necessary infrastructure and logistics are already in • Local consumption patterns vary significantly according to
place. income.
• Vietnam's consumers, particularly the young and affluent, • There is a cultural preference for small, family-run stores and
have fairly good brand awareness by regional standards. traditional format stores.
• Competitive pressure is increasing rapidly in the drinks • Vietnam's retail distribution networks remain
sector, which is likely to drive greater dynamism and growth. underdeveloped, and expansion-oriented firms must invest
• A growing multinational presence in the food retail sector in infrastructure development.
has strengthened the acceptance of modern retail best
practices in Vietnam, particularly regarding added value and
in-store services.
Opportunities Threats
• A large, youthful and growing population offers high growth • Over the long term, the retail sector in major cities will
opportunities for retailers, with Vietnam being one of the become saturated.
fastest-growing consumer markets in emerging Asia. • Few alternative communities can currently support modern
• Increased urbanisation and the rise of a middle class retail development.
demographic are likely to boost food and drink • The potential tightening of alcohol laws or hiking of taxes on
consumption. alcohol could weigh on spending in the alcoholic drinks sub-
• Premiumisation and healthification trends are underway in sector.
the country, presenting plentiful opportunities for food and • Mass grocery retailers in Vietnam must contend with
drink producers and retailers. persistent challenges in logistics and distribution, as well as
• International tourism, a major driver of hospitality and supply chain disruptions and rising costs.
gastronomy sales in the market, can be expected to provide
a strong boost to food and drinks spending.
Industry Forecast
Food
Key View: In line with a supportive macroeconomic backdrop, food spending growth in Vietnam will accelerate to double digits in
2024, where it is set to remain throughout our forecast period. The expanding population, which is increasingly urbanised and
affluent, and the ongoing expansion of the mass grocery retail industry, will drive up food sales. We forecast robust medium-term
growth in spending on all food segments aside from sugar and sugar products, which are witnessing sluggish demand as health-
conscious consumers try to limit their sugar consumption.
Latest Updates
• In 2024, we expect food sales in Vietnam to grow by 11.7% y-o-y to VND1,299,8trn (USD53.4bn). This robust increase will be
supported by a favourable macroeconomic environment, including low and stable inflation and accelerating real GDP growth,
which will stimulate consumer spending.
• Over the medium term, we forecast food spending to rise by an annual average of 10.9% in local currency terms and 9.7% in
USD terms to reach VND1,952.8trn (USD77.5bn) in 2028. Rising incomes underpin consumer tastes shifting towards higher-
value food product lines, which promises a receptive and growing audience for branded products.
• Healthification is gaining ground as consumers look closer at health benefits when tailoring their diets. Accordingly, fruit and
seafood will see strong spending growth over the medium term, while sugar and confectionery will underperform.
Structural Trends
Food Spending Outlook For 2024
Food spending is projected to increase by 11.7% y-o-y in 2024 to a total of VND1,299,8trn (USD53.4bn). Our positive outlook is
underpinned by our expectation of strong private consumption in Vietnam as economic activity accelerates and consumer price
inflation remains low. Almost all food segments are forecast to witness double-digit growth in sales values in 2024, with the
exception of the sugar and sugar products segment, which is suffering from limited demand amid consumers seeking to restrict
their sugar intake.
Food Sales Remain Stable Over Medium Term

Vietnam - Food Sales (2021-2028)
Medium-Term Trends
Over the medium term, food spending in Vietnam is set to rise by an average rate of 10.9% annually in local currency terms and
9.1% annually in USD terms to reach VND1,952.8trn (USD77.5bn) in 2028. The sector's strong performance will be supported by
favourable macroeconomic conditions, rising household incomes, increasing urbanisation and steady population growth. The
ongoing expansion of the mass grocery retail industry will drive up per capita food consumption levels as modern retailers find
models that stir consumer interest.
Historically, low income levels in Vietnam have seen consumers spend mainly on food staples and daily necessities. Strong wage
growth is enabling the average Vietnam household to afford more than just basic staples. Consumer tastes and preferences are
shifting towards the higher-value food segments, which promises a receptive and growing audience for branded products in the
medium term.
The two major food spending segments in Vietnam are bread, rice and cereals; and meat and poultry, accounting for more than
two-thirds of total food spending combined. Within these segments, rice and pork are the most consumed categories in the market,
in line with the national diet. Like many developing Asia markets, rice in Vietnam is a staple food and main source of calories for
families across all income brackets, but accounts for a bigger proportion of consumption in lower-income households due to its
affordability. Meat and poultry sales are performing well as middle-income households trade up to more expensive types and cuts of
meats and processed meats. Both of these two major segments are set to expand by an average annual rate of 10.9% over the
medium term, with meat and poultry spending coming in at VND590.3trn (USD23.4bn) in 2028 and bread, rice and cereals
spending at VND728.4trn (USD28.9bn).
The Vietnam dairy sector has experienced strong growth in recent years and will continue to do so, with dairy sales projected to
grow by an average of 11.0% a year through to 2028. Dramatic increases in the amount of cattle and in public and private sector
investment - part of the effort to reduce the market's dependency on imports - will be the main drivers of growth .Large
multinational companies have managed to sway consumer preferences with their considerable advertising. The demand for high
protein and high energy foods such as dairy products is increasing. This is being supported by Vietnam's consumers paying more
attention to their food choices as part of a healthification trend. The government has rolled out initiatives to improve the general
population’s knowledge of health, such as educational television programmes explaining the function of calcium intake to increase
bone strength and supporting a dairy-rich diet for children’s development.
Vietnam's consumers are becoming increasingly health conscious. Major dietary spending shifts indicate a steady increase in
spending on food items that scientific studies show have health benefits. In line with this, the fastest-growing food spending
category is projected to be fresh and preserved fruit products, which will expand by an average of 11.2% a year to 2028. Vietnam is
home to a wide variety of rare tropical and exotic fruits, such as langsat, mangosteen, rambutan, longan and many other fruits which
are not commonly found in other parts of the world. Vietnam's consumers are consuming more imported fruits, which are generally
more expensive, despite the abundance of fruits domestically. Vietnam's consumers perceive foreign fruits to be of a higher quality
and safety standard than domestically produced ones. Farmers Market, a Vietnam-based premium agricultural products retailer,
indicated in April 2023 that durians and mini pineapples imported from Thailand saw strong demand at many supermarkets in
Vietnam, while Vietnam-based counterparts were rejected by locals.
In line with the healthification trend underway in Vietnam, sugar and sugar products is set to be the slowest-growing food spending
segment. We forecast that this segment will see modest average growth of 8.0% annually over the medium term. With health
awareness prompting shifts in consumption habits towards more functional and healthy confectionery products, capitalising on this
trend will be important. Rapid increases in disposable income could translate into a greater discretionary appetite for such sugar
products, specifically premium confectionery products.
Food Sales (Vietnam 2024-2028)

Indicator 2024f 2025f 2026f 2027f 2028f
Food, sales, VNDmn 1,299,800,137.6 1,441,914,683.3 1,597,987,636.0 1,767,555,284.4 1,952,806,748.9
Food, sales, VNDmn, % gr
groowth yy-o-y
-o-y 11.7 10.9 10.8 10.6 10.5
Br
Bread,
ead, ric
ricee and ccer
ereals,
eals, sales, VNDmn 485,315,488.9 538,215,480.4 596,315,238.5 659,443,141.5 728,414,661.6
Br
Bread,
ead, ric
ricee and ccer
ereals,
eals, sales, VNDmn, %
11.7 10.9 10.8 10.6 10.5
gr
groowth yy-o-y
-o-y
Pasta pr
products,
oducts, sales, VNDmn 1,589,712.8 1,762,511.3 1,952,293.5 2,158,498.8 2,383,791.0
Pasta pr
products,
oducts, sales, VNDmn, % gr
groowth yy-o-y
-o-y 11.6 10.9 10.8 10.6 10.4
Meat and P
Poultr
oultryy, sales, VNDmn 393,280,098.7 436,145,912.5 483,225,184.1 534,378,845.5 590,267,688.8
Meat and P
Poultr
oultryy, sales, VNDmn, % gr
groowth yy--
11.7 10.9 10.8 10.6 10.5
o-y
Fish and fish pr
products,
Fish and fish pr
products,
oducts, sales, VNDmn, %
12.0 11.2 11.0 10.8 10.7
gr
groowth yy-o-y
-o-y
Dair
Dairyy, sales, VNDmn 25,342,349.0 28,135,212.2 31,202,687.6 34,535,711.1 38,177,335.3
Dair
Dairyy, sales, VNDmn, % gr
groowth yy-o-y
-o-y 11.8 11.0 10.9 10.7 10.5
Oils and FFats,
ats, sales, VNDmn 40,478,087.1 44,933,052.9 49,826,042.1 55,142,597.1 60,951,392.4
Oils and FFats,
ats, sales, VNDmn, % gr
groowth yy-o-y
-o-y 11.8 11.0 10.9 10.7 10.5
Fr
Fresh
esh and pr
preser
eservved fruit, sales, VNDmn 77,944,468.0 86,735,238.2 96,390,957.1 106,883,073.8 118,347,097.5
Fr
Fresh
esh and pr
preser
eservved fruit, sales, VNDmn, %
12.1 11.3 11.1 10.9 10.7
gr
groowth yy-o-y
-o-y
Fr
Fresh
esh vvegetables,
egetables, sales, VNDmn 66,182,157.5 73,428,974.6 81,381,953.2 90,016,859.8 99,444,564.2
Fr
Fresh
esh vvegetables,
egetables, sales, VNDmn, % gr
groowth yy--
11.7 10.9 10.8 10.6 10.5
o-y
Sugar and sugar pr
products,
Sugar and sugar pr
products,
oducts, sales, VNDmn, %
8.2 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.0
gr
groowth yy-o-y
-o-y
Other ffood
ood pr
products,
Other ffood
ood pr
products,
oducts, sales, VNDmn, % gr
groowth
11.9 11.1 11.0 10.8 10.6
y-o-y
f = BMI forecast. Source: National Statistics, BMI
Drink
Key View: Spending on alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages in Vietnam will rise at a strong and steady pace throughout our
forecast period, sustained by several positive underlying drivers. The most important of these is the country's expanding middle
class, which is at the heart of the premiumisation trend. Consumers are gradually trading up to more expensive brands and
diversifying their purchases to products other than the traditional staples: coffee and beer.
Latest Updates
• In 2024, we forecast alcoholic drinks spending in Vietnam to increase by 11.8% y-o-y to come in at VND85.5trn
(USD3.5bn). Through to 2028, spending on alcoholic drinks is set to rise by an average of 11.0% a year in local currency terms
and 9.7% a year in USD terms, reaching VND128.8trn (USD5.1bn).
• Alcohol consumption is projected to expand by 4.3% in 2024 to 4.4bn litres. Over our medium-term forecast period to 2028, the
consumption of alcoholic drinks is expected to increase by an annual average of 3.7% to a total of 5.0bn litres. The much
stronger growth in sales values rather than volumes indicates that consumers will be purchasing fewer alcoholic drinks but
selecting more expensive products when they do.
• While beer will account for the vast majority of the growth in alcohol consumption, being by far the most consumed type of
alcoholic beverage in the market, volumes of beer sold will tick up only slowly over the medium term. The wine and spirits
segments will benefit from strong double-digit annual increases in volumes sold during our forecast period, albeit from much
lower bases.
• Non-alcoholic drinks spending is forecast to rise by 10.5% y-o-y in 2024 to VND52.9trn (USD2.2bn) and an annual average of
9.9% in local currency terms and 8.7% in US dollar terms through to 2028 to VND76.9trn (USD3.0bn). The outperforming non-
alcoholic drinks segment is expected to be carbonated drinks, although hot drinks (predominantly coffee) will remain the most
popular non-alcoholic beverages in the market, with sales values around three times higher than the carbonated drinks
segment.
Structural Trends
Alcoholic Drinks
Alcoholic Drinks Outlook For 2024
Alcoholic drinks spending is forecast to increase by a robust 11.8% y-o-y in 2024 to VND85.5trn (USD3.5bn), while
the consumption of alcohol expands by a moderate 4.3% to 4.4bn litres. These figures reflect the premiumisation trend. Strict
government regulations seeking to curb alcohol abuse and drunk driving and rising consumer awareness of the negative impacts of
excessive alcohol consumption on health are leading to consumers purchasing less alcohol. Rising household incomes are allowing
consumers to purchase products at higher price points and spend more on premium (and imported) beers, wines and spirits rather
than only economy beers.
Alcohol Consumption Growth Remains Stable

Vietnam - Total Alcohol Consumption, litres mn (2021-2028)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: WHO, BMI
Medium-Term Trends
A favourable demographic landscape, rising affluence and strong economic growth imply large scope for alcoholic drinks
consumption in Vietnam. The market's thriving tourist industry bolsters sales of alcoholic drinks. Although we caution that the
Vietnam government is still considering further taxes on alcohol, previous tax hikes have not significantly affected the industry.
Evidence has recently emerged that stricter regulations on drunk driving is having an impact on consumption levels. Between 2024
and 2028, the consumption of alcoholic drinks is expected to increase by an annual average of 3.7% to a total of 5.0bn litres. Over
the same period, spending on alcoholic drinks is set to rise by an average of 11.0% a year in local currency terms and 9.7% a year in
USD terms, reaching VND128.8trn (USD5.1bn). The sluggish expansion of sales volumes against much stronger growth in sales
values is indicative of the premiumisation trend, with consumers favouring quality over quantity and choosing to consume less
alcohol but selecting more premium products.
Beer will continue to dominate the alcoholic drinks sub-sector, accounting for the vast majority of volume sales. Beer will remain the
main contributor to value sales. A young and growing population as well as rising tourist numbers have ensured the prevalence of
beer in the alcoholic drinks market, and the segment has been attracting significant investment from both local and international
brewers. While beers at the economy end of the scale have traditionally been the most popular among locals, major brewers are
increasingly focusing on promoting their premium and imported offerings as consumer tastes shift towards higher-end products.
Volume sales growth in the wine and spirits segments is expected to outpace that of beer, but this is because they will be
developing from much lower bases. Investment in these segments is expected to intensify as an increasing number of investors
recognise the higher margin growth opportunities, which is likely to instill further dynamism and drive volume sales.
Vietnam has a relatively underdeveloped wine market, but this is rapidly changing. Traditionally, wine was mostly consumed via the
hotels, restaurants and bars of the tourism sector and among the small immigrant community in Vietnam. Wine offerings were,
therefore, sold at a higher price point than beer. Such high price points excluded the domestic consumer, leaving beer as the more
dominant alcohol consumed. Rising incomes and the entry of cheaper, New World wines (through free trade agreements) into the
mass grocery retail channel in Vietnam have increased the visibility of wines for Vietnam's consumer. Wines from Chile, France, Italy
and Australia are now on sale in local supermarkets. The beverage has become a staple of many social interactions, such as
business dinners. Red wine dominates the wine market in Vietnam, accounting for approximately 76.7% of total wine consumed.
White wine accounts for a further 18.1% of total wine consumption, followed by sparkling wines (2.3%) and other wines (2.9%).
Total Alc
Alcoholic
oholic Drinks Spending And Consumption (Vietnam 2021-2028)
Indicator 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024f 2025f 2026f 2027f 2028f
Alc
Alcoholic
oholic drinks
spending, 62,789.47 69,770.82 76,458.06 85,491.60 94,918.88 105,272.11 116,520.53 128,809.36
VNDbn
Alc
Alcoholic
oholic drinks
spending, VND 4.53 11.12 9.58 11.82 11.03 10.91 10.69 10.55
% yy-o-y
-o-y
Alc
Alcoholic
oholic drinks
spending, VND 2,008,775.63 2,194,465.49 2,357,510.56 2,593,352.08 2,823,957.31 3,072,238.87 3,336,052.86 3,618,437.03
per household
Alc
Alcoholic
oholic drinks
spending, VND 644,205.76 710,592.22 773,405.51 859,232.13 948,202.88 1,045,612.06 1,151,069.35 1,265,975.44
per capita
Total alc
alcohol
ohol
consumption, 3,811.3 3,997.9 4,181.1 4,361.0 4,536.4 4,706.2 4,868.6 5,022.6
litr
litres
es mn
Total alc
alcohol
ohol
consumption,
3.2 4.9 4.6 4.3 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.2
litr
litres
es mn, % yy--
o-y
Total alc
alcohol
ohol
consumption, 63.6 66.3 69.1 71.8 74.4 76.9 79.2 81.5
litr
litres
es per capita
Beer
Beer,, litr
litres
es mn 3,757.1 3,937.4 4,114.6 4,287.4 4,454.6 4,615.0 4,767.3 4,910.3
Beer
Beer,, litr
litres
es mn,
3.1 4.8 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.0
% yy-o-y
-o-y
Beer
Beer,, litr
litres
es per
62.7 65.3 68.0 70.6 73.0 75.4 77.6 79.7
capita
Wine, litr
litres
es mn 13.6 14.9 16.3 17.8 19.6 21.6 23.8 26.2
Wine, litr
litres
es mn,
8.1 10.0 8.9 9.4 10.0 10.4 10.2 10.0
% yy-o-y
-o-y
Wine, litr
litres
es per
0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4
capita
Spirits, litr
litres
es
40.6 45.5 50.3 55.8 62.2 69.6 77.5 86.1
mn
Spirits, litr
litres
es
9.4 12.1 10.4 10.9 11.6 11.8 11.4 11.1
mn, % yy-o-y
-o-y
Spirits, litr
litres
es
0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4
per capita
Non-Alcoholic Drinks
Non-Alcoholic Drinks Outlook For 2024
We forecast non-alcoholic drinks spending to increase by 10.5% y-o-y in 2024 to VND52.9trn (USD2.2bn). This is a robust level of
growth that reflects our positive outlook for private consumption in the market in 2024. In line with ongoing sub-sector trends, the
carbonated drinks segment is expected to outperform in the short term, while the fruit and vegetable juices segment will
underperform.
Steady Growth Forecast Through To 2028

Vietnam - Non-Alcoholic Drinks Sales (2021-2028)
Medium-Term Trends
Over the medium term, we believe that spending on non-alcoholic drinks in Vietnam will pick up by a stable and strong average rate
of 9.9% a year in local currency terms and 8.7% a year in US dollar terms to reach VND76.9trn (USD3.0bn) in 2028. The hot drinks
segment is by far the largest non-alcoholic drinks segment in the market. Historically, Vietnam has been a coffee-drinking market,
with a rich coffee culture. Vietnam has boasted strong market demand for entry-level products, such as low-cost instant and high
volume, low-quality coffee products. Traditionally, a significant proportion of coffee consumption happens at home, with spending
through the mass grocery retail channel. This trend has steadily evolved, with the liberalisation of trade in the late 1980s. Between
the late 1990s and the early 2000s, domestic coffee chain shops such as Trung Nguyen and Highlands Coffee began operations
and have since expanded across the market. This shifted consumer preferences towards brewed coffee options, as Vietnam's
consumers are increasingly able and willing to spend more on higher-quality coffee (which is typically sold at higher price points).
International brands such as Starbucks have been rapidly expanding their store networks across the major cities and have carved
out a unique prestige position for themselves. We forecast total hot drinks spending in Vietnam to grow by a robust average of
10.0% annually over the medium term, slightly outpacing the wider market, to reach VND51.8trn (USD2.1bn) in 2028.
Opportunities provided by an emerging middle class in Vietnam are firmly within the sights of domestic drinks producers such as
Suntory PepsiCo Vietnam Beverage and Coca-Cola Beverages Vietnam. These companies' aggressive initiatives in terms of product
innovation, portfolio expansion and advertising will instill even greater dynamism in the non-alcoholic drinks sub-sector. A
favourable demographic profile and rising consumer affluence create strong growth opportunities across the sub-sector. The youth
demographic (aged 0-14 years) is an underlying driver of soft drinks consumption, particularly the carbonated drinks category.
Therefore, although the hot drinks segment will remain dominant in terms of total sales values, carbonated drinks will be the
outperforming segment in terms of sales growth over the medium term. This is common in markets where soft drinks consumption
is relatively low, and consumer preferences are not highly dynamic. It should be noted that sugary drinks could be subject to an
increased excise tax aiming to improve community health in Vietnam, which could pose challenges for the segment going forward.
Our forecast envisages carbonated drink sales increasing by an annual average of 11.5% to come in at VND18.2trn (USD721.0mn)
in 2028.
Local soft drink manufacturers are gradually calibrating their portfolios towards healthier and more functional beverages, such as
fruit juices and ready-to-drink teas, as they look to tap into a health-conscious trend in the market. Despite rising health awareness
encouraging healthier options, the higher prices of healthy juices over other drinks outprice many price-sensitive
consumers. Therefore, we expect fruit and vegetable juice sales to underperform, with annual average growth of 5.7% through to
2028.
Non-Alc
Non-Alcoholic
oholic Drinks Sales (Vietnam 2021-2028)
Indicator 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024f 2025f 2026f 2027f 2028f
Non-alc
Non-alcoholic
oholic
drinks, sales, 40,858,565.9 44,168,887.3 47,873,347.6 52,877,550.6 58,099,859.9 63,835,101.2 70,066,234.6 76,873,704.1
VNDmn
Non-alc
Non-alcoholic
oholic
drinks, sales,
3.8 8.1 8.4 10.5 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.7
VNDmn, %
gr
groowth yy-o-y
-o-y
Coff
Coffee,
ee, teas
and other hot
27,429,551.3 29,663,825.7 32,163,531.6 35,542,473.0 39,071,201.8 42,949,275.3 47,165,691.7 51,775,422.0
drinks, sales,
VNDmn
Coff
Coffee,
ee, teas
and other hot
drinks, sales, 3.8 8.1 8.4 10.5 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.8
VNDmn, %
gr
groowth yy-o-y
-o-y
Soft drinks,
13,429,014.6 14,505,061.5 15,709,816.0 17,335,077.6 19,028,658.1 20,885,825.9 22,900,542.9 25,098,282.1
sales, VNDmn
Soft drinks,
sales, VNDmn, 3.8 8.0 8.3 10.3 9.8 9.8 9.6 9.6
% gr
groowth yy-o-y
-o-y
Fruit and
vegetable
4,294,585.6 4,515,388.8 4,768,748.6 5,087,701.6 5,393,791.2 5,700,654.1 6,001,845.9 6,295,546.2
juic
juices,
es, sales,
VNDmn
Fruit and
vegetable
juic
juices,
es, sales, 2.7 5.1 5.6 6.7 6.0 5.7 5.3 4.9
VNDmn, %
gr
groowth yy-o-y
-o-y
Miner
Mineralal or
spring water
waters,
s, 357,947.5 384,984.4 415,337.3 455,979.8 497,980.3 543,653.7 592,778.8 645,901.7
sales, VNDmn
Miner
Mineralal or
spring water
waters,
s,
3.6 7.6 7.9 9.8 9.2 9.2 9.0 9.0
sales, VNDmn,
% gr
groowth yy-o-y
-o-y
Carbonated
drinks, sales, 8,776,481.5 9,604,688.3 10,525,730.1 11,791,396.2 13,136,886.6 14,641,518.2 16,305,918.2 18,156,834.1
VNDmn
Carbonated
drinks, sales,
4.3 9.4 9.6 12.0 11.4 11.5 11.4 11.4
VNDmn, %
gr
groowth yy-o-y
-o-y
Industry Trends And Developments

Vietnam
Key View
• The average Vietnamese household will spend 20.4% of their total household budget on food in 2027, marginally
increasing from 19.0% in 2007.
• Vietnamese households have seen significant growth in their disposable incomes over our forecast period (2007-2027). This has
fed through to their food spending patterns, allowing them to diversify their palate and purchase food that is not commonly
found in their country.
• Healthification is gaining ground, as consumers look closer at health benefits when tailoring their diets. Fruits will see strong
spending growth, with imported fruits increasingly being the main choice for Vietnamese consumers. Despite having an
abundance of fruits domestically, Vietnamese consumers perceive foreign fruits to be of a higher quality and safety standard
than domestically produced ones.
• Poultry and pork products will see significant consumption and spending growth, as opposed to beef, due to the significantly higher price an
beef products.
• Dairy consumption will continue to outperform, as Vietnamese consumers are paying more attention to their food choices as
part of the ongoing healthification trend. Milk consumption will increase from 3.8kg per capita in 2007 to 12.3kg per capita in
2027, while convenient dairy products, such as yoghurt, will grow by an annual average of 14.9% over this period.
Dietary Shift Spending Overview
The average Vietnamese household will spend 20.4% of the total household budget on food in 2027, marginally increasing from
19.0% in 2007. Over the 2008 to 2027 period, we forecast nominal household spending on food items will grow by an average of
12.8% a year. However, over this period, food price inflation is forecast to average 2.7% a year, suggesting that food spending in real
terms will grow by an average of 10.1% a year to VND1.2bn in 2027. Despite food spending as a percentage of total household
budget not changing significantly, growing wages and disposable income over the past 20 years has led to real growth in food
spending and consumption, enabling the average Vietnamese household the ability to afford more than just basic food staples.
The shift in dietary spending is a result of changing taste and preferences, as they have access to a wide range of food variety
throughout our comparison period.
Market Is Gradually Maturing With Strong Growth In Food Spending

Vietnam - Food Spending, Real (2010-2027)
When breaking down the average Vietnamese household spend on food, three food categories (bread, rice and cereals; meat and
poultry; fish and fish products) will account for more than 70% of total food spending in 2027. Staples (bread, rice and cereals) will
account for the largest share, at 37.3% of total food spending; meat and poultry at 30.2%; and fish and fish products at 9%. These
three food categories will see their share of total food spending decrease marginally, from 79.3% of total food spending in 2007 to
76.5% in 2027.
Within the three dominant food categories, we highlight that Vietnamese consumers spending on staples will be the largest share
of the staples spending category. Like many developing Asia markets, rice in Vietnam will remain as a staple food and main source
of calories for families across all income brackets, but will account for a bigger proportion of consumption in lower-income bracket
households, due to its affordability. Spending on meat and poultry will increase from 29.5% of total food spending in 2007 to 30.2%
in 2027, while spending on fish and fish products will decrease from 13.9% to 9.0% over the same period.
We note that the decline in spending on fish and fish products is due to the lower annual inflation of fish prices, compared to other
food products, such as meat and poultry, and not as a result of decreasing fish consumption. Vietnam has one of the largest
domestic fish markets and is one of the top fish exporters in the world. Pangasius freshwater fish (catfish), or known locally as Basa, is
the top consumed fish locally due to its affordability. Basa is inexpensive as it grows fast, is easily harvested and processed in
factories near the farm, which helps to keep prices low.
Three Food Categories Dominate Spending Patterns

Vietnam - Food Spending Breakdown, % of total food sales (2007-2027f)
f = BMI forecast. Source: National sources, BMI
Consumers Are Making More Health-Conscious Decisions
Vietnamese consumers are becoming increasingly health conscious, as major dietary spending shifts indicate a steady increase in
spending on food items that scientific studies show have health benefits. Over the 2007-2027 period, fresh fruits is the fastest-
growing category, growing by 16.1% a year. Spending growth in this category will continue to outperform and surpass top-line food
spending average growth of 10.1% per year. This growth will see the fresh and preserved fruits proportion of total food spending
increase from 3.8% in 2007 to 6.1% in 2027, making fresh and preserved fruits the category of food with the biggest increase in
share of food spending. Conversely, sugar and sugar products will be the slowest-growing category, at just 7.1% average growth per
year over the same period. The outperformance of fresh fruits spending and the weak growth in sugar spending underpin our view
that consumers in Vietnam are increasingly health conscious, with priority given to spending on healthier foods.
Vietnam is home to a wide variety of rare tropical and exotic fruits, such as langsat, mangosteen, rambutan, longan and many other
fruits which are not commonly found in other parts of the world. However, in recent years, Vietnamese consumers are consuming
more imported fruits, which are generally more expensive, despite the abundance of fruits domestically. Vietnamese consumers
perceive foreign fruits to be of a higher quality and safety standard than domestically produced ones. Farmers Market, a Vietnam-
based premium agricultural products retailer, indicated in April 2023 that durians and mini pineapples imported from Thailand saw
strong demand at many supermarkets in Vietnam, while their Vietnamese counterparts were rejected by locals.
Healthier Food Categories Have Attracted Significant Growth

Vietnam - Spending Growth Per Food Category, % chg y-o-y (2007-2027f)
f = BMI forecast. Source: National statistics, BMI
Households Consuming And Spending More on Meat Due To Rising Income And Affordability
Between 2007 and 2027, Vietnamese households will allocate a larger portion of their total food spending towards meat and
poultry products, increasing from 29.5% of total food spending in 2007 to 30.2% in 2027. Collectively, total meat consumption
(beef, pork and poultry) per capita will grow by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.1%, increasing from 28.5kg in 2007 to
52.6kg in 2027. Pork will remain the most consumed meat throughout this entire period, accounting for 59% of
total meat and poultry consumed in 2027. On the other hand, poultry will see the highest growth in consumption, growing from a
per capita consumption of 4.8kg in 2007 to 17.0kg in 2027.
Poultry And Pork Will Continue To Dominate Vietnamese Households Meat Consumption
Vietnam - Meat Protein Consumption By Category (2007-2027)
All three categories of meat will see growth surpass average headline food spending growth of 10.1% per year. Spending on
pork and poultry will grow by an annual average of 13.3% and 13.9% respectively, while spending on beef will grow by an annual
average of 13.6%. Despite the high annual growth of beef spending, we highlight that beef consumption will only increase
marginally from 1.8kg in 2007 to 4.4kg in 2027. The low consumption growth of beef is due to the much higher prices and higher
annual inflation of beef.
Youthful Population, Growing Convenience And Healthification Trend Supports Dairy Consumption
Demand for high protein and high energy food, such as dairy products, have increased over the years, as Vietnamese consumers
are increasingly paying more attention to their food choices as part of a healthification trend. This growing health awareness is
increasing in Vietnam, as the government rolls out initiatives to improve the general population’s knowledge of health, such as
educational television programmes explaining the function of calcium intake to increase bone strength and supporting a dairy-rich
diet for children’s development. Additionally, the large size of Vietnam’s youthful population (29.8mn in 2027), who have recently
entered the workforce, will support demand for convenience products. As a result, demand for high protein and high energy food,
such as dairy products, have increased significantly. Spending on dairy products will grow by an annual average of 14.1% between
2007 and 2027, with total milk consumption (liquid milk and whole milk powder) increasing from 3.8kg per capita in 2007 to 12.3kg
per capita in 2027.
We highlight that yoghurt is undergoing a similar growth trajectory, due to its relative affordability, ease of consumption and health
benefits it provides. Spending yoghurt products will grow by an annual average of 14.2% during this period. Within the last 10 years,
dairy companies have been successful in launching branded yoghurt products that promise to ensure better food safety standards
than the traditional home-made yoghurt.
Dairy Consumption Has Increased Significantly Over The Years

Vietnam - Total Milk Consumption, kg per capita (2007-2027)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: OECD-FAO, BMI
In April 2023, Singapore-based private equity firm Growtheum Capital Partners announced an investment of USD100mn in
Vietnam-based International Dairy Products, as the firm looks to tap into the growing demand for dairy products in the region.
Vietnam-based dairy company Vinamilk announced plans to increase its capacity by 20% through the construction of two large
plants in Hung Yen and Moc Chau provinces. The Hung Yen plant will will have a total capacity of 400mn litres annually and the Moc
Chau facility will consist of high-tech dairy farms and processing factories, with a production capacity of up to 1,000 tonnes per day.
Vinamilk has also announced plans to build cow farms in the Philippines, after the company deems the export market to be big
enough. Another key player, TH Milk announced plans to build dairy facilities in Russia worth USD2.7bn, in line with strengthening
trade relations between Vietnam and the Eurasian Economic Union in part facilitated by the VN-EAEU FTA.
Market Overview
Food
Growing domestic consumption amid rising income levels is contributing to the rapid expansion of Vietnam’s food manufacturing
and processing industry, which produces a substantial volume of goods for export. Major food processing segments that continue
to show strong growth potential are seafood, fresh fruit and vegetables, dairy and meat. The food processing and the food services
segments are highly fragmented and competitive, featuring thousands of well-established Vietnam-based firms, regional
competitors and global heavyweights. While local consumers still demonstrate a preference for traditional offerings and flavours, the
young and urbanised population is driving increasingly Westernised consumption trends.
Recent Developments
• In February 2024, Thailand-based Minor Food Group announced further expansion plans into the Vietnam market. One of the
brands under the Minor Food Group, Sizzler, opened its first location in Vietnam and the wider Minor Food Group has signed an
agreement to expand its The Coffee Club business in Vietnam. The Minor Food Group currently operates more than 100
locations in the Vietnam market and aims to double their network by 2026.
• In December 2023, US-based investment firm Bain Capital announced an additional USD50mn investment into Masan Group
after a prior USD200mn investment announced in October 2023.
• In December 2023, South Korea-based food-delivery company Baemin announced that it had left the Vietnam market after four
years of operations. The company cited competition in the market and the headwinds resulting from economic weakness as the
key reason for the decision.
Market Drivers And Trends
Food Consumption
Vietnam's economic growth has led to the expansion of modern lifestyles and a rise in disposable incomes, particularly in major
urban centres. This has increased consumer demand for snacks, convenience food and premium food items. Domestic food
manufacturers are slowly beginning to respond to this trend and are increasing the range of ready-to-eat and semi-prepared foods.
Domestic food producers have to respond to increasingly Western consumption habits and brand preferences, particularly among
younger and more affluent consumers. The dairy sector has paticularly experienced strong growth in recent years, alongside
increasing urbanisation and rising incomes. Huge multinational companies have managed to sway consumer preferences with their
considerable advertising and promotional power, and domestic firms have had to work hard to secure brand loyalty.
Foreign brands are making better headway than domestic brands in the Vietnam consumer goods industry. The modest presence
of domestic brands in Vietnam can be attributed to the distribution hurdles faced by local consumer goods players and the stronger
brand appeal and perceived better quality of foreign goods. Local players will need to improve their product quality and tailor their
portfolio to meet the needs of Vietnam's consumer.
• Distribution Challenges: The majority of domestically produced consumer goods can be found in local supermarket stores
such as Saigon Co-op and Big C. Domestic consumer firms have a less extensive reach than foreign counterparts across the
traditional retail channels such as wet markets and independent stores. Given that organised grocery retail remains a newer
concept in Vietnam, traditional retail networks provide the best reach to the end-consumer market, which explains the weaker
presence of domestic brands in the market.
• Perceived Better Quality Of Foreign Goods: Foreign consumer goods are typically considered to be of better quality than
domestically produced goods among local consumers. As foreign consumer goods investors typically have stronger financial
power, they are equipped with a greater capacity to invest in production infrastructure and in research and development to
improve product quality.
• Stronger Brand Appeal Of Foreign Brands: Foreign consumer firms typically enjoy stronger brand appeal than domestic
counterparts, which can largely be attributed to the aggressive branding initiatives they employ. Foreign brands, such as US
coffee firm Starbucks, are generally associated with social prestige. As consumer affluence grows, more consumers are likely to
associate themselves with foreign rather than local brands.
With more multinationals entering Vietnam looking to benefit from the market's dynamic consumer growth story, domestic
companies are likely to find it more difficult to compete for market share gains. As competition heats up, domestic firms must tailor
product offerings to cater for the unique tastes of Vietnam's consumer and improve their product quality to compete against their
foreign counterparts. Domestic companies typically have a competitive advantage over foreign companies with regard to
understanding local market needs and preferences, and they could use this insight to grow their market share. Although domestic
firms have a weaker competitive advantage in terms of distribution reach, the ongoing spread of organised grocery retail is likely to
ease distribution challenges for these companies.
Food Processing
Food processing is one of Vietnam’s most important industries. The value of food processing accounts for 19.1% of the market's
manufacturing sector, and there are more than 6,000 companies active in food processing, with the number of players having
increased by more than 80% since 2019. The Vietnam food processing industry is therefore fragmented. It is dominated by
relatively small domestic operators; however, an increasing number of consumer goods investors are entering Vietnam, and we
expect competitive pressures to heat up quickly. The largest number of enterprises operate in fruit and vegetable processing and
production. Seafood, meat and dairy processing are other notable categories.
Major Vietnam-based players in the food processing industry include Masan Consumer Corporation and San Miguel Pure
Foods. Masan Group has subsidiaries operating in branded fast-moving consumer goods (including packaged food and beverages,
and home and personal care products); branded meat and fresh produce. Masan Consumer Holdings is the branded consumer
goods segment.
Several foreign majors operate in the Vietnam food-processing industry as well, such as Nestlé and Unilever. Nestlé Vietnam
manufactures beverages, dairy products, prepared meals and cooking ingredients in six Vietnam-based production plants. In terms
of food and beverage brands, the company markets Nescafé, La Vie, Nestea, Maggi and Nestlé (including Milo and KitKat) in
Vietnam. In releasing its 2022 financial results, Nestlé confirmed that its strategy for Vietnam is to focus on product affordability and
accessibility. CFO Francois-Xavier Roger highlighted that 'consumers in these markets respond extremely well to product innovation,
so this has become an important priority'. It was emphasised that having a good mix of products is crucial in the region. In a March
2023 press release, Nestlé Vietnam stated that it continues to implement plans to increase production to serve domestic demand
and diversify its export product portfolio to more than 25 markets. Nestlé Vietnam is strengthening its research and development
activities to diversify its product portfolio and create added value in order to reach and exploit difficult markets. It is proactively
developing products according to the unique requirements of each market, meeting strict standards of quality and food safety for
different customer groups, such as halal or kosher customers.
Unilever's presence in the food sector is smaller than that of its other consumer products, but it does have some notable brands in
Knorr and Wall's. Unilever has two production plants – one in Ho Chi Minh City and the other in the northern province of Bac Ninh –
and five distribution centres in Vietnam. In early 2023, the former CEO of Unilever, while visiting Vietnam, stated that the company
will continue to invest in the market, in terms of production, brand and people development. In April 2023, Unilever reported that,
since traditional trade (primarily markets) account for 75% of the company's product sales in Vietnam, and mini-marts are the
fastest-growing offline channel, its local team is focusing on reaching hundreds of thousands of stores to make Unilever products
available for people in both rural and urban communities. The local team is pioneering a business-to-business digital distribution
model with the ‘OrderUNow’ mobile application, which helps retailers across the market directly import goods from Unilever.
Unilever stated that it was leading in the direct-to-customer model through its UShop e-commerce ecosystem, specialising in
selling Unilever products through its own branded online store. The company claims to have become one of the top names in e-
commerce platforms in Vietnam, as well as a strategic partner for supermarket chains. It plans to continue focusing on digital
transformation.
Dairy Processing
Vietnam has more than 200 dairy producers; however, the market remains reliant on dairy imports, as domestic production is
currently only able to meet about half of domestic of demand. Among the largest domestic players in the dairy market are Vinamilk,
TH Group and Nutifood. Several large multinationals have gained a foothold in the market, such as Nestlé, FrieslandCampina and
Abbott.
Vietnam-based Vinamilk is the market's leading dairy company. Vinamilk manages 15 farms and 17 factories supplying around 250
products that are exported to 60 markets. The company produces a variety of dairy foods, including milk, condensed milk, milk
powder, yoghurt, ice cream and cheese, alongside cookies, coffee, tea and bottled water. Vinamilk announced plans in June 2023 to
increase its capacity by 20% through the construction of two large plants in Hung Yen and Moc Chau provinces. The Hung Yen plant
will have a total capacity of 400mn litres annually and the Moc Chau facility will consist of high-tech dairy farms and processing
factories with a production capacity of up to 1,000 tonnes per day.
Meat Processing
As with dairy, Vietnam remains dependent on imports to meet its domestic meat consumption despite a healthy domestic meat
production industry. Pork is both the most consumed and the most produced meat in the market. The processed meat market has
significant potential for growth, as demand continues to grow. The bulk of the industry is composed of cold and roast meat
products, followed by ham and bacon, and then sausages.
Masan MeatLife is one of Vietnam’s largest branded meat platforms focused on serving consumers traceable, hygienic and branded
meat products. Food company Le Gourmet was founded in Vietnam in 1998, and in 2006, it was acquired by San Miguel Pure Foods
Vietnam. The company manufactures and distributes value-added products such as premium sausages, ham, bacon, pâté and
traditional cold cuts to retail stores, primarily under its processed meats brand Le Gourmet. The business has food service
operations, catering to local and international fast-food chains, restaurants, hotels and convenience stores.
In March 2023, Vinamilk and Japan-based trading house Sojitz started construction on a large beef processing complex in the north
of the market. Vinamilk is looking at additional revenue streams. The complex will have the capacity to breed around 10,000 head of
beef cattle annually and to process about 30,000. Once the venture takes off, Vinamilk and Sojitz will expand to pork and poultry.
The USD100mn complex is set to launch operations in 2024.
Seafood Processing
Vietnam is one of the largest aquaculture producers globally. In 2022, the market produced around 4.9mn tonnes of aquaculture
products. In addition to domestic consumption, exports are a major driver of the industry’s growth. There are more than 840 aquatic
product processing factories in Vietnam, of which almost 700 are eligible to process products for export to the EU. This figure is
1.4-4 times larger than that of Thailand, India and Indonesia, which shows the potential of this industry. Major seafood processors in
Vietnam include Minh Phu Seafood Corporation, Cargill Vietnam, Sao Ta Foods and Soc Trang Seafood.
Confectionery
The confectionery segment has high growth potential amid the proliferation of supermarkets and convenience stores. The
products produced in the market are localised and often use locally sourced ingredients, with domestic consumers preferring
traditional flavours and ingredients, such as coconut, pandan, coffee and tropical fruits. Foreign confectionery is becoming
increasingly popular, and an increase in health awareness among the market’s middle class is driving demand for healthy
alternatives, such as low-sugar and organic options. Major confectionery producers operating in Vietnam include Bien Hoa
Confectionery, Mars Incorporated, Nestlé and Perfetti Van Melle.
Food Services
Vietnam’s growing urban population and increasing disposable incomes are contributing to the healthy growth of the food services
industry. The outperformance of the segment indicates strong demand for formal and modern dining offerings (such as restaurants
and cafés) in the market and highlights the important role that food plays in Vietnam's culture. As incomes rise, consumers are likely
to spend their increased earnings on higher quality food or better dining experiences, such as at restaurants. This indicates a gradual
shift in Vietnam's consumers' outlook on food spending as they increasingly value the overall dining experience over pure
sustenance. The entry of Michelin-starred restaurants into the market further drives this trend as global recognition of Vietnamese
cuisine will drive domestic interest in their own foods. Demand for more premium offerings of local cuisine will take hold among the
growing middle class and a market response to meet that demand will ensue.
According to the Vietnam Cuisine Culture Association, there are currently 550,000 food and beverage service establishments in the
market, 430,000 of which are traditional diners, 82,000 of which are fast food restaurants and 10,000 others. The key performers in
the food service industry are full-service restaurants (FSRs) – especially Asia cuisine restaurants - and quick-service restaurant
(QSR)s. In 2022, FSRs accounted for 68.9% of the food services industry revenue, reflecting the strong culture of dining out in
Vietnam. QSRs claim a significant proportion of sales, though they compete with street food, canteens and convenience stores.
Another hallmark of Vietnam’s food services industry is its extreme degree of fragmentation. In 2022, the top five companies claim
only a 1.8% market share combined, while 78.1% of total revenue in the industry was accounted for by independent outlets.
Nevertheless, there are several domestic and foreign chains that have established a nationwide presence. In the QSR category,
international majors such as McDonald’s, Burger King, Lotte Group’s Lotteria, Pizza Hut, Jollibee and KFC account for roughly half of
industry revenue.
The leading QSR in terms of revenue, with a market share of just 0.8%, is Philippines-based Jollibee Foods Corporation. The first
Jollibee fast food store opened in Vietnam in 2005. The company runs several different brands, the most significant of which is
Jubilee. In July 2023, Jollibee reported that it had 158 stores in Vietnam, making it the third-biggest QSR in the market in terms of
number of outlets. Jollibee opened seven new stores in Vietnam in 2022 and four more in Q123.
Lotteria is a South Korea-based fast food brand that sells burgers, fried chicken and other traditional fast foods. It is a major rival of
KFC in Vietnam. Since its establishment in Vietnam in 1998, Lotteria now has more than 210 stores across the market.
US-based KFC is the most successful non-Asia cuisine food services brand in Vietnam. It was one of the first major Western brands
to arrive in the market, opening its first outlet in 1997. It has since expanded its store network to more than 140 outlets. Another
QSR from the US that has become hugely popular is Pizza Hut, which now has more that 100 outlets in Vietnam.
Other US-based QSR brands operating in the market, although on a much smaller scale than the companies mentioned above,
include McDonald’s (which launched its first restaurant in Vietnam under franchise in 2014) and Burger King (which entered the
Vietnam market in 2011), which each have around 20 outlets.
Drink
Vietnam's highly competitive beverage industry is home to more than 1,800 beverage-producing factories. The beer segment
accounts for around 40% of the total market, with the market being the third largest producer and consumer of beer in Asia.
Multinational major Heineken now leads the beer segment and continues to invest in consolidating its position. The local
subsidiaries of foreign firms Coca-Cola and PepsiCo dominate the soft drinks segment, particularly the relatively large and fast-
growing carbonated drinks category, and both are currently investing in new production facilities in the market. Overall soft drinks
consumption in Vietnam remains low, with hot drinks far more favoured as non-alcoholic beverages. The market's coffee market, in
particular, is substantial and continues to grow at a rapid rate, led by strong and long-established homegrown firms.
Recent Developments
• In January 2024, Habeco announced that its post-tax profit for 2023 fell 30% to VND355bn (USD14.5mn), citing tighter
government regulation on drunk driving and an increasing difficult domestic economic environment.
• In January 2024, Nestlé launched a new product, coffee liquid concentrates that is ready-to-drink and only requires consumers
to add an recommended serving of ice. The new product is capitalising on the convenience trend and increasingly time-poor
urban consumers.
• In January 2024, Nestlé announced a USD100mn investment into a production facility located in Tri An that would double their
existing package coffee production. This include brands such as Nescafé, Nespresso, Starbucks and Blue Bottle.
• In December 2023, Mainland China-based coffee chain Cotti Coffee expanded into the Vietnam market with its first stores
opening in Ho Chi Minh City.
• Amid fierce competition in the soft drinks segment, both Coca-Cola Beverages Vietnam and Suntory PepsiCo Vietnam Beverage
are currently building new factories in Long An province that are set to begin operations in 2026. Coca-Cola is investing
USD136mn in a factory that has been designed to improve productivity by applying innovative production models and
technology to optimise resource usage. PepsiCo is investing USD188.6mn in its 20 ha plant that will have an annual output of
796mn litres of products, including beverages, purified water and milk.
• In October 2023, Highlands Coffee announced that it will invest nearly USD20.5mn in a new 23,970sq m coffee roasting facility
in the province of Ba Ria-Vung Tau. Once fully operational, the facility will be the largest coffee roasting factory in Vietnam,
capable of producing 75,000 tonnes of coffee annually.
Hot Drinks
Vietnam has a unique and long-standing coffee culture. The daily practice of consuming coffee is an integral part of the lives of the
majority of Vietnam's consumers. Consequently, the coffee segment in the market has witnessed strong growth. In the 1990s, a
coffeehouse chain trend developed in Vietnam, as the market’s economy begin to grow after the Doi Moi (renewal/new age)
reforms introduced by Vietnam's authorities in 1986 saw increased privatisation and a greater role of market forces. This led to an
overall rise in the livelihoods and wages of Vietnam's consumers. It led to the development of domestic chains, with the first, Trung
Nguyen, opening in 1998, followed by the Starbucks-inspired Highlands Coffee in 2002. Similar coffeehouse chains have since
proliferated around the market, notably The Coffee House and Phuc Long Coffee & Tea.
Domestic coffee giant Trung Nguyen currently dominates the coffee chain market, with more than 1,000 outlets nationwide. These
consist of Trung Nguyen Legend stores, which are operated by the group itself, and Trung Nguyen E-Coffee stores, which are
operated as franchises. Philippines-based Jollibee Foods Corporation now owns Highlands Coffee and The Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf.
Highlands Coffee maintains second position in the coffee chain market, with 680 stores in the market, far ahead of domestic firms
The Coffee House (157) and Phuc Long Coffee & Tea (147).
While it is mainly domestically developed coffee chains that exist in Vietnam, there are some international franchises that have
broken into the segment, including the US-based The Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf and Starbucks. Starbucks has been the most
successful foreign player and now has 102 stores in the market. Despite the rise of Vietnam's incomes and the growing
premiumisation trend of coffee in Vietnam, international brands have struggled to perform in the market, and many have left over
the years, citing limited success and expansion prospects and a failure to attain sustainable growth. This is primarily due to the
inability of international brands to capture the tastes of Vietnam's consumers. Vietnam's coffee primarily uses Robusta beans,
catering to local consumption preferences. In contrast, the international players tend to offer Arabica coffee, which consumers are
not used to. In a market where approximately 95% of coffee production is Robusta, the use of Arabica beans means that most of the
coffee beans used by the international players have to be imported, and the increased operational costs are then passed over to
consumers in the form of higher prices, sometimes twice that of domestic players. The higher prices and different taste offerings
mean that large consumer segments of the emerging Vietnam economy continue to see visiting these international chains as an
occasional treat. In terms of actively replacing domestic chains as their daily coffee consumption, many still do not see the value
proposition of paying more for a coffee that is not to their preferred taste.
Multinational major Nestlé operates in Vietnam's coffee-producing segment with its Nescafé brand. In a March 2023 press
release, Nestlé Vietnam stated that it continues to implement plans to increase production. One of the main goals is to double its
capacity to process high-quality coffee so that some coffee product lines that previously had to be imported from Europe can be
produced in Vietnam. To this end, Nestlé Vietnam is expanding its production lines for high-value products such as Nescafé Dolce
Gusto capsule coffee and freeze-dried coffee.
Soft Drinks
A noteworthy aspect of Vietnam's drinks market is that the major focus of multinational soft drinks manufacturers is on carbonated
beverages, while small local drink firms produce other types of drinks and compete among themselves for the remaining market
share. Per capita consumption of soft drinks in Vietnam is still low, but it is growing quickly and becoming more dynamic on the
back of positive demographic trends and rising consumer affluence. The market's large youth consumer group holds potential for
strong future growth in the carbonated soft drinks category.
The soft drinks segment is dominated by multinationals The Coca-Cola Company and PepsiCo. Coca-Cola entered Vietnam in 1994
and now operates three beverage production facilities (in Ho Chi Minh, Da Nang and Hanoi), 18 production lines and six distribution
centres across the market. Coca-Cola Beverages Vietnam produces dairy-based drinks, carbonated drinks, fruit juice, bottled water,
coffee and tea. Its leading brands in the market include Coca-Cola, Sprite, Fanta, Minute Maid, Schweppes and Fuze. In January 2023,
Swire Coca-Cola Limited, based in Hing Kong, China, announced the completion of its acquisition of Coca-Cola Beverages Vietnam
Limited. Coca-Cola is currently investing USD136mn in building a new beverage factory in Long An. The factory has been designed
to improve productivity by applying innovative production models and technology to optimise resource usage. It is expected to be
completed in 2026.
In 2013, PepsiCo signed a strategic alliance with Suntory Beverage & Food Limited, under which Suntory PepsiCo Vietnam
Beverage (SPVB) operates. SPVB has factories in Ho Chi Minh City, Can Tho city, Quang Nam, Bac Ninh and Dong Nai provinces. They
produce energy drinks, carbonated drinks, fruit juice, bottled water, coffee and tea. SPBV's popular products in Vietnam include
energy drink Sting, soft drinks Pepsi and 7Up, O Long TEA+ and Lipton tea. The company is currently building a USD188.6mn
factory in Long An province that is expected to open in 2026. The 20-hectare plant will have an annual output of 796mn litres of
products, including beverages, purified water and milk.
Alcoholic Drinks
The government levies substantial duties on all imported alcoholic beverages along with consumption taxes. Currently, the market
applies an excise tax on beer of 65%, on other liquor of 35%-65% and on cigarettes of 75%. As a result, a substantial black market
for smuggled products has developed; the government estimates that a third of spirit sales come from smuggled goods. Since
2022, the government has been considering increasing the tax on alcohol, although it has delayed this several times amid pushback
from alcoholic beverage majors active in the market. The Vietnam Beverage Association has repeatedly stated that increasing such
taxes in the past has not achieved the goal of reducing consumption and protecting health, a claim that official data appear to
support. The industry body has highlighted that the special consumption tax has no impact on illegal alcohol production, which it
claims accounts for between 60% and 70% of the market and costs legitimate businesses around USD750mn each year.
The Vietnam government targeted excessive consumption of alcohol with the January 2020 introduction of a ban on the
advertising of alcohol on radio and TV from 18:00 to 21:00 or before or after children's programmes. Another bill that aimed to
restrict the hours for alcohol sales failed to pass in parliament. The enforcement of laws against driving under the influence may
cause alcoholic drink sales and revenues to decrease, and there has already been anecdotal evidence that this is the case. In June
2023, brewers Sabeco and Habeco reported drops in quarter two profits hit by the impact of tightened regulations on driving under
the influence of drink, among other factors. The government may enact further regulations limiting alcohol sales and consumption.
This is amid concerns about underage drinking, which may be worsened by the fact that many drinks that have the same alcohol
content as beer (4%-5%) are not labelled as alcoholic in the market.
Owing to the inherent price sensitivity of Vietnam's consumers, the majority of alcoholic drink products in the market are at the
economy end of the market. The traditional alcohol consumption habits of Vietnam's consumers involves cheap beer and whiskies.
Western immigrants and tourists remain the biggest consumers of wines and spirits in Vietnam. This is changing gradually,
particularly within wealthier urban centres. Domestic drinking habits are changing in line with higher consumer incomes and
greater exposure to Western cultures. The brewing industry is a major driver of the slow move towards premiumisation. We are
witnessing a shift in local consumption habits towards quality wines at reasonable prices. Wines are often perceived as a symbol of
social prestige and, as living standards improve, the demand is likely to increase.
Beer
Vietnam is the third-largest beer producing market in Asia, behind Mainland China and Japan. Vietnam’s state media reported that
the market grew by 6.5% in 2022. Brewers produced 46mn hectolitres of beer, up by 12% y-o-y, equalling 88.5% of the pre-
pandemic (2019) volume. Vietnam is the third highest beer consumer in Asia after Japan and Mainland China. The beer market was
valued at USD11bn at the retail level in 2021.
In terms of the major brewers in the market, Saigon Alcohol Beer And Beverages Corporation (Sabeco), which had long been the
market leader, lost the number one position to Heineken’s local subsidiary in 2020. Heineken now has a market share of around
44%, followed by Sabeco (34%), Hanoi Beer Alcohol And Beverage Joint Stock Corporation (Habeco; 7.4%) and Carlsberg (8.7%).
Local rivals Sabeco and Habeco have a strong presence in the south and north of the market respectively. Foreign brewers have
increased their presence in Vietnam in recent years. Among the international companies, Heineken has established the strongest
presence through majority-owned Vietnam Brewery Limited and fully owned Asia Pacific Brewery (Hanoi). Heineken has six
breweries in Vietnam. Its brewery in Vung Tau (some 60km south east of Ho Chi Minh City), whose capacity was increased to 11mn
hectolitres in 2022, is south east Asia’s largest. In December 2022, Heineken's CEO, on a trip to Vietnam, said that the brewer has
invested USD1bn in the market to date and will continue to invest USD500mn over the next decade. Carlsberg is the other foreign
player that commands a substantial market share (operating both alone and through its stake in Habeco). Carlsberg acquired 100%
of the shares in Vietnam-based Hue Brewery and has a 17.5% stake in Habeco.
Another notable foreign player is AB InBev, which opened its first brewery in the market in June 2015. In January 2021, AB
InBev acquired Vietnam's SAB Beer after having received the green light from the Ministry of Industry and Trade. A legal
representative of AB InBev said that the merged company will have the capacity and resources to operate with 'higher productivity'
and to 'improve both competitiveness and quality' in the Vietnam market. SAB Beer's brewery produces Budweiser and Beck's, while
AB InBev's local brewery brews Hoegaarden beer and some products for Japan and South East Asia markets. Japan-based brewers
Sapporo, Kirin and Asahi operate in Vietnam, alone or through joint ventures.
Wine
Locally produced wines account for 25% of the Vietnam wine market. They are mainly sourced from Lam Dong province located in
the Central Highlands, home to several large vineyards and wineries, including Dalat Wine City, the largest winery in Vietnam. Chile's
wines are the leading imported wine category with a 25% share, ahead of French wines at 19% and Australian wine at 7%. Italian
and US brands have smaller market shares. The bestselling wines locally are reds, with around 65% of the market (particularly
French reds from Bordeaux, Chilean cabernet sauvignons and red blends); followed by whites with 25% (particularly Chilean
sauvignon blancs and chardonnays); and sparkling wines with 10%.
Mass Grocery Retail

Vietnam's grocery retail market is highly fragmented. Traditional grocery retailers, such as local markets and mom-and-pop stores,
still play an important role, appealing to rural consumers and low-income urban consumers who need to budget daily for food and
make purchases in small quantities. Organised retail is rapidly gaining momentum as major regional players and local companies
invest heavily in expanding their store networks to make them easily accessible and in ensuring that they offer a wide range of high
quality yet affordable products. Vietnam's rapid urbanisation and growing population with rising incomes underpin our expectation
for the fast formalisation and modernisation of the mass grocery retail sector and its long-term growth opportunities. Over the
medium term at least, potential investors will need to manage persistent challenges in logistics and distribution, as well as supply
chain disruptions and rising costs.
Recent Developments
• In January 2024, Saigon Co.op announced a strategic partnership with South Korea-based logistics firm CJ Logistics to
collectively operate a new logistics centre in Ho Chi Minh City currently under construction.
• In reporting its financial results for the first nine months of 2023, Masan Group noted that its WinCommerce grocery retail
division had opened 245 minimarts and two supermarkets during the year. WinCommerce has been renovating WinMart+ stores
in urban and rural areas, transforming them into the new WIN 'All That You Need' format in urban areas and 'WinMart-plus-Rural'
in rural areas. In order to continue its sustainable growth, WinCommerce plans to boost sales, improving like-for-like growth to
achieve higher store revenue levels.
• In August 2023, South Korea-based convenience store chain GS25 announced that it had become the top operator in southern
Vietnam, surpassing rivals US-based Circle K and Japan-based FamilyMart, five years after its market debut. While GS25 is still
second to Circle K in terms of national store count, GS25 Vietnam has pursued an aggressive growth strategy. GS Retail seeks to
grow its retail network in Vietnam to approximately 280 GS25 convenience stores by the end of 2023. The company aims to
extend its footprint to Binh Duong, Dong Nai and Vung Tau, targeting a larger regional market. In June 2023, the International
Finance Corporation announced that it would be investing USD20mn in GS25 to help expand its retail network across Vietnam.
• In July 2023, 13 new Co.op Food convenience stores opened, bringing the nationwide network to 571 outlets. This included the
simultaneous opening of four new Co.op Food stores in three cities across the market in the last week of the month. Saigon
Co.op is focusing on accelerating the development of convenience store chains such as Co.op Food, Co.op Smile and Cheers in
new residential areas to access more customer groups. The company stated that Co.op Food, along with the Co.op Mart
supermarket and Co.op Xtra hypermarket fascias, is looking for new premises not only in inner city areas but also on the outskirts.
Major Players
According to the Vietnam Report JSC released on September 30 2022, the top modern mass grocery retailers in Vietnam are
Central Retail Vietnam, WinCommerce, Saigon Coop, MM Mega Market, Aeon Vietnam and Lotte Vietnam.
In terms of local players, WinCommerce, a division of domestic conglomerate Masan Consumer Corporation, has supermarkets,
convenience stores and mini-malls in its network under the Winmart, Winmart+ and WIN banners. WinCommerce opened 730 new
WinMart+ convenience stores and 8 new WinMart supermarkets over 2022, ending the year with 3,268 WinMart+ locations and 130
WinMart outlets, solidifying WinCommerce's position as the largest modern retail network in the market terms of number of outlets.
During the year, WinCommerce also piloted 102 WIN stores, which bring together various Masan products and services (including
the Winmart+ convenience store, coffee chain Phuc Long Coffee & Tea, financial services firm Techcombank, pharmacy Dr. Win and
telecommunication services provider Reddi) in one location to cater to busy urban consumers. Fellow local retailer Saigon Co.op's
network of more than 800 grocery stores encompasses Co.op Mart supermarkets, Co.op Xtra hypermarkets and Co.op Food, Co.op
Smile and Cheers convenience stores. Saigon is the leading grocery retailer in Vietnam by revenues. The company is focused on
improving service quality, expanding its distribution network, promoting and strengthening its e-commerce offering, better
integrating customer experience with the help of AI technology and speeding up the expansion of its convenience store chains to
diversify its store offering and facilitate its e-commerce development.
Foreign companies have a well-established position in the local market. In Vietnam, Thailand-based Central Retail Group operates
Go hypermarkets and Tops Market supermarkets; Thailand-based BJC TCC Group has a network of MM Mega Market supermarkets;
South Korea-based Lotte operates Lotte Mart hypermarkets; and Japan-based Aeon runs Mega Market hypermarkets, Citimart
supermarkets and Ministop convenience stores. In October 2022, Central Retail Vietnam revealed plans to double its supermarkets
to 70 within the next five years, while Aeon continues to move forward with its ambitious plan of having 100 supermarkets by
2030. In July 2023, Aeon announced that it had secured a USD41mn loan from the Japan Bank for International Cooperation
and Mizuho Bank. Aeon announced that it was looking to create a distribution network of Japanese food ingredients and processed
food across Aeon Vietnam stores in the market, while also using the funds to finance two new stores in the Binh Duong and Long
An provinces.
We believe that Vietnam offers the greatest mass grocery retail investment opportunities in South East Asia, as the MGR market is
still highly fragmented and will continue to expand. While several regional retailers have a strong presence in the market, we believe
that the entrance of leading global retailers such as Tesco, Carrefour or Walmart is unlikely, as they are refocusing on domestic
activities and overseas operations in places where they have the potential to become market leaders. The exits of Germany-based
Metro in August 2014 and France-based Auchan in July 2019 illustrate this dynamic.
A growing population, rising wealth and rapid urbanisation indicate that the mass grocery retail (MGR) sector in Vietnam is well
poised for substantial growth and fast modernisation. Reflecting this potential, foreign investors are using a number of expansion
strategies in Vietnam, including mergers and acquisitions, franchising and partnerships, while domestic MGR players continue to
aggressively expand their store networks.
Nonetheless, supply chain disruptions, inadequate management of commodity prices and rising costs associated with the
distribution of goods are specific challenges facing grocery retailers in Vietnam. Large retailers in the market often face supply
challenges buying fresh items in bulk. Small-scale farms are usually unable to apply advanced supply chain standardisation, which
can lead to a poor supply of fresh inventory. A fragmented and fluctuating supplier base makes it difficult for supermarkets to gain
an advantage over wet markets and other traditional retail outlets. Sudden commodity price increases can cause inflation to
accelerate, making it challenging for MGR chains to manage the costs of some groceries and eroding consumer purchasing power,
which directly impacts retailers’ financial performance.
In recent years, changes in consumer behaviour have changed the retail environment in Vietnam. This transformation was
accelerated by the Covid-19 pandemic, which forced numerous grocery merchants to adapt and innovate. Traditional marketplaces
experienced a decline, with street shops, wet markets and mom-and-pop stores compelled to shutter operations due to stringent
pandemic restrictions. These closures led to a shift in consumer grocery shopping habits towards more modern mass grocery retail
outlets in the formal sector and towards online grocery shopping. The gaps left by shuttered smaller outlets gave supermarket
operators room to grow their businesses and accelerate their expansion. This was accompanied by a surge in e-commerce
popularity as consumers avoided public places.
Supermarkets are the most popular MGR format in Vietnam, thanks to their wide product ranges, seamless customer experiences
and guaranteed product quality. Major players such as Co.op, Aeon and WinMart are all developing their private-label lines to
diversify their product lines, build customer loyalty and strengthen their competitive advantage. The currently small convenience
store segment is rapidly gaining momentum as outlets proliferate in close proximity to consumers and as household incomes
continue to rise.
Competitive Landscape
Key Play
Player
erss In Vietnam's FFood
ood Sector
Company Sub-Sector Ownership
Bibica Corp Food - confectionery Private company
Ha LLong
ong Canned FFood
ood JJoint
oint SStock
tock Food - canned seafood, meat, fruit and Private company
Company vegetables
Hanoi Milk JJoint
oint SStock
tock Company Food and beverages - dairy Public company: Hanoi Stock Exchange
Masan Consumer Holdings Food - instant noodles, sauces Parent company: Masan Consumer
Corporation
Masan MeatLif
MeatLifee Food - meat Parent company: Masan Consumer
Corporation
Nam Viet Corpor
Corporation
ation Food - seafood Public company: Ho Chi Minh Stock
Exchange
Nestlé Vietnam Food and beverages Parent company: Nestlé
San Miguel Pur
Puree FFoods
oods Vietnam Food and beverages Parent company: San Miguel Foods
Sao TTaa FFoods
oods JJoint
oint SStock
tock Company Food - seafood Parent company: Hung Vuong Corporation
Unile
Unilevver Vietnam Food and beverages Parent company: Unilever
Vinamilk Food - dairy Public company: Ho Chi Minh Stock
Exchange
Source: Trade press, company data, BMI
Key Play
Player
erss In Vietnam's Drink Sector
Company Sub-Sector Ownership
Coca-Cola Vietnam Be
Bevver
erages
ages Beverages - soft Parent company: Swire Coca-Cola
Habec
Habecoo Beverages - alcoholic Majority owner: Ministry of Industry and Trade Vietnam
Hanoi Milk JJoint
oint SStock
tock Company Food and beverages - dairy Public company: Hanoi Stock Exchange
Nestlé Vietnam Food and beverages Parent company: Nestlé
Suntor
Suntoryy P
PepsiCo
epsiCo Vietnam Be
Bevver
erage
age Beverages - soft Parent company: PepsiCo
Sabec
Sabecoo Beverages - alcoholic Majority owner: Vietnam Beverage Company
San Miguel Pur
Puree FFoods
oods Vietnam Food and beverages - miscellaneous Parent company: San Miguel Foods
Tan Hiep Phat Gr
Group
oup Beverages - alcoholic and soft Private company
Trung Nguy
Nguyen
en Corp Beverages - coffee Parent company: Trung Nguyên
Unile
Unilevver Vietnam Food and beverages Parent company: Unilever
Vietnam Br
Brew
ewer
eryy Beverages - alcoholic Parent company: Heineken Asia
VinaCaf
VinaCaféé Bien Hoa JJoint
oint SStock
tock Company Beverages - hot Public company: Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange
Vinamilk Beverages - dairy Public company: Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange
Key Play
Player
erss In Vietnam's Mass Gr
Groc
ocer
eryy R
Retail
etail Sector
Parent Company Market Of Origin Ownership Fascias Format
Saigon Co-op Vietnam Private company Co.op Mart Supermarket
Co.op XXtr
traa Hypermarket
Co.op Smile Convenience store
Co.op FFood
ood Convenience store
Cheer
Cheerss Convenience store
WinCommer
WinCommercce Vietnam Masan Group WinMart Supermarket
WinMar
WinMart+
t+ R
Rur
ural
al Convenience store
WinMar
WinMart+
t+ Convenience store
WIN Mini-mall
Centr
Central
al Gr
Group
oup Thailand Parent company: Central Group Go Hypermarket
Tops Mark
Market
et Supermarket
BJC TTC
CC Gr
Group
oup Thailand Parent company: BJC TCC Group MM Mega Market Hypermarket
Lotte Co Ltd South Korea Parent company: Lotte Co Lotte Mart Hypermarket
Aeon Japan Parent company: Aeon Mega Market Hypermarket
Citimar
Citimartt Supermarket
Ministop Convenience store
Company Profile
Carlsberg
• Carlsberg's strong financial capacity enables it to make • Distribution infrastructure remains problematic; having
significant capital investment without the need for brewing facilities in separate regions overcomes this despite
immediate returns. the obvious expense.
• The famous Carlsberg brand is popular with young, brand- • Carlsberg lacks a presence in the economy end of the price-
oriented consumers. sensitive market.
• Early pursuit of a diverse regional presence has given
Carlsberg a head start.
• Increased urbanisation and the rise of a middle class • Since 2022, Vietnam's government has debated whether to
demographic are likely to boost beer consumption. increase the special consumption tax that applies to harmful
• Growing tourist arrivals should support beer sales. products such as alcohol.
• Economic growth is likely to boost sales of Carlsberg's • A tough law enacted and closely enforced by the
premium international brands. government to reduce driving under the influence may
• Small-scale brewers, struggling with increased competition, permanently slow the growth of beer companies, including
could be acquisition targets. Carlsberg.
• The beer market is receiving high levels of investment,
dramatically increasing competition levels.
• While beer dominates alcoholic drinks spending in Vietnam,
wine and spirits are outpacing beer in terms of growth.
Company Overview
Carlsberg entered Vietnam in 1993 via the acquisition of a 60.0% stake in South East Asia Brewery in northern Vietnam. It has since
expanded, acquiring 50.0% of Central Vietnam's Hue Brewery in 1994 and the remaining 50.0% in 2009 and acquiring 30.0% of Ha
Long Brewery in the north east in early 2007. The Denmark-based company currently has a market share of around 7% in Vietnam.
It is the market's second-largest international player (fourth overall), behind Heineken. Carlsberg Vietnam produces Carlsberg, 1664
Blanc, Tuborg, Tuborg Ice, Somersby, Huda, Huda Ice Blast, Huda Gold and Halida.
Strategy
In February 2022, Carlsberg Group launched its new five-year strategy, SAIL’27. SAIL’27 focuses on the strategic levers portfolio,
geographies, execution and culture.
• Portfolio Choices: Step up in premium, strengthen mainstream core beer, accelerate alcohol-free brews and grow beyond
beer (cider, hard lemonade, hard seltzers and ready-to-drink cocktails).
• Geographical Priorities: Premiumise and grow profits in Western Europe, accelerate in core markets in Asia, and drive value
and build scale in Central and Eastern Europe.
• Execution Excellence: Excel at the point of purchase; mater digital, data and processes; and manage the supply chain end-to-
end.
• Winning Culture: Ensure purpose- and performance-driven people; work together towards zero and beyond (referring to
targets for carbon, water, waste, health and safety and responsible drinking); and live by the company's ethical values.
In its 2022 annual report, Carlsberg outlined its geographical priorities for Asia. Its ambition is to continue to strengthening its
position in key Asia markets, supported by expanding its premium portfolio and capturing growth opportunities in adjacent
categories, mainly using the Somersby brand. The company sees particularly attractive opportunities for growth in Mainland China,
India and Vietnam through the leveraging of its international premium and super premium brands and strong local brands. In
Vietnam specifically, the focus will be on growing its local brand Huda and its international premium portfolio, selectively expanding
its footprint and strengthening its execution capabilities.
Recent Developments
2023
In February, Carlsberg reported full year results for 2022. In Vietnam, the market recovered strongly after the Covid-19 pandemic,
growing by more than 20% (YTD November), albeit with large regional differences due to the different implementation of Covid-19
restrictions during 2021. The company achieved strong volume growth of more than 25%, driven by the local Huda brand and the
international premium brands. In addition, the brewer strengthened its route-to-market, expanding the coverage and number of
outlets selling the products, and increased its marketing investments.
Financial Data
Financial year ending December 31
Total Revenues (Asia Region)
• 2022: DKK23.7bn
• 2021: DKK19.5bn
• 2020: DKK16.6bn
• 2019: DKK18.4bn
• 2018: DKK15.5bn
Hanoi Beer Alcohol And Beverage Joint Stock Corporation
• Backing from the global beer giant, Carlsberg, provides • Habeco's relatively weaker presence in the more affluent,
access to capital as well as the ability to enhance its product southern part of Vietnam limits the potential for stronger
offering. Habeco is seeking regional expansion, profitable revenue growth.
partnerships and premium brands. • Its focus on the economy segment could eventually impede
• It has a good position in what is perceived as one of the growth as incomes increase.
world's highest-potential beer markets.
• Its economy-heavy portfolio means that Habeco brands tend
to perform well even during periods of low consumer
confidence.
• Increased urbanisation and the rise of a middle class • Since 2022, Vietnam's government has debated whether to
demographic is likely to boost beer consumption. increase the special consumption tax that applies to harmful
• Vietnam's proximity to the dynamic frontier beer markets of products such as alcohol.
Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar offers huge opportunities for • A tough law enacted and closely enforced by the
regional expansion. government to reduce driving under the influence may
• The company's relationship with Carlsberg is likely to permanently slow the growth of beer companies, including
facilitate wider distribution and synergies. Habeco.
• Vietnam's beer market has grown rapidly, supported by • Competition in the segment continues to intensify as
economic growth, rising tourism and favourable age multinationals seek out the few remaining explosive growth
demographics. opportunities in the regional beer market.
• The pace of expansion by market leaders has raised
concerns that the beer industry is now over-supplied,
particularly considering that much of the population
earn very low incomes.
• Carlsberg's internal problems could limit investment in
Habeco.
Company Overview
Hanoi Beer Alcohol And Beverage Joint Stock Corporation (Habeco) is the third-largest Vietnam-based brewer. It dominates sales in
the north, particularly in the increasingly affluent city of Hanoi. It produces a range of beers under the Truc Bach and Hanoi brands,
as well as UniAqua bottled water. Denmark-based beer company, Carlsberg, is the company's largest single investor, with a stake of
around 17.5%. As Carlsberg offers a number of popular Western beer brands, Habeco could look to bring in these brands to bolster
its premium portfolio and to ramp up its presence beyond its northern stronghold. Although its has launched Hanoi Premium beer
and Truc Bach craft beer, the firm has focused on economy brands, which has helped it to ward off international competition and
has delivered sustained growth. Habeco currently has a market share of 7.4% in the Vietnam beer market, which pales in
comparison to Sabeco's 34.0% share.
Strategy
In its H123 earnings release, Habeco stated that it aims to continue building and developing its brand, promoting its products and
connecting with consumers through communication activities and promotional programmes. Regarding the distribution system,
the company plans to consolidate and strictly control the distribution system through the application of information technology
and software. It will strictly control sales areas, limit sales in areas or routes, complete and diversify distribution channels, apply e-
commerce channels and optimise sales websites.
Recent Developments
2024
In January, Habeco announced that its post-tax profit for 2023 fell 30% to VND355bn (USD14.5mn), citing tighter government
regulation on driving under the influence and an increasing difficult domestic economic environment.
2023
Over H123, the company recorded revenue of VND3,333bn, down by more than 5% y-o-y. Profit after tax reached VND184bn, down
by more than 22% y-o-y. The company attributed the disappointing results to declining consumer purchasing power and the rising
prices of many inputs and production and business costs due to economic difficulties (including elevated inflation and interest rates
and unfavourable foreign exchange rates) and tightened alcohol content regulations. The company expects its malt input price to
increase by about 50% compared to the average purchase price in 2022. Habeco highlighted that it was also facing fierce
competition from major multinational corporations, noting that there was some confusion between Habeco products and other
products.
Financial Data
Financial year ending on December 31
Total Revenue
• 2022: VND8,938bn
• 2021: VND5,265bn
• 2020: VND7,464bn
• 2019: VND9,335bn
• 2018: VND9,100bn
Net Profit
• 2022: VND527bn
• 2021: VND317bn
• 2020: VND722bn
• 2019: VND540bn
• 2018: VND499bn
Masan Consumer Corporation
• A nationwide distribution network gives Masan rare access to • Local consumers generally do not exhibit strong brand
both the high-spending urban centres and the low-spending loyalty or a preference for Vietnamese products.
rural population. • Domestic and multinational competition is high, even in a
• Established strong brands are a significant advantage in the fragmented marketplace.
current environment of regional food hygiene and safety • Masan will have to continue pouring in capital investment to
scares. secure its market share.
• Its increasingly diversified product portfolio caters
specifically to local tastes.
• A young, fast-growing population with increasing • Despite having an established nationwide distribution
urbanisation presents a receptive audience for branded network, the movement of goods remains a problem, given
foods. the market's underdeveloped infrastructure.
• Further development of healthy and innovative products is a • The arrival of multinationals focused on branded food sales
long-term opportunity, even if the audience for such goods will jeopardise Masan's market share.
is currently small. • Volatile input costs could threaten margins, as these costs
• The company has confirmed that it will consider mergers remain difficult to pass on to consumers in what remains a
and acquisitions to accelerate growth. price-sensitive environment.
Company Overview
Masan Group, which started out as a producer of branded consumer goods, has grown to become an integrated offline-to-online
consumer-tech ecosystem. It has subsidiaries and associates operating in consumer retail; branded fast-moving consumer goods
(including packaged food and beverages, and home and personal care products); branded meat and fresh produce; retail food and
beverage; financial services; and mobile telecommunications. These businesses include The CrownX, a consumer retail platform
that owns Masan Consumer Holdings, the branded consumer goods segment, and WinCommerce, the grocery retailing segment.
Other consumer-related businesses include Masan MeatLife, one of Vietnam’s largest branded meat platforms focused on serving
consumers traceable, hygienic and branded meat products; and Phuc Long Heritage, a leading branded tea and coffee retail chain.
Strategy
In August 2023, in its H123 earnings release, Masan Group emphasised its strategic initiative to increase the efficiency of the
consumer value chain and serve the constantly changing needs of Vietnam's consumers. Its growth roadmap for the period
2023-2025 focuses on three core growth drivers:
• Network Growth: Capture market share of modern retail and cooperate with traditional retail to serve 30-50mn WIN members.
• Membership Growth: Increase the size of WIN members offline and online to 30-50mn. Through using an online-to-offline
network, Masan aspires to reach a membership base of 30mn members by 2025.
• Spending Market Share Growth: Expand and deepen desires beyond basic needs. Masan aims to provide banking access to
5mn underserved consumers over the next few years.
These growth catalysts will be bolstered by the operational capabilities of Masan's in-house logistics division and advanced AI and
machine learning technology, including 'Winnie', an AI-driven smart point-of-sale system that automates and enhances inventory
management processes.
Recent Developments
2023
In December, US-based investment firm Bain Capital announced an additional USD50mn investment into Masan Group after a prior
USD200mn investment announced in October 2023.
At the end of October, Masan Group reported its financial results for the first nine months of the year. Its consumer businesses -
WinCommerce, Masan Consumer Holdings, Masan MeatLife and Phúc Long Heritage - grew its earnings before interest and taxes
(EBIT) by 45.5%. The CrownX achieved revenues of VND41.7trn, up by 2.4% y-o-y. WinCommerce reached EBIT breakeven for the
first time post-Covid, with net revenues increasing by 2.1% y-o-y due to the opening of 245 minimarts and two supermarkets. It was
noted that WinCommerce has been renovating WinMart+ stores in urban and rural areas, transforming them into the new WIN 'All
That You Need' format in urban areas and WinMart+ Rural in rural areas. Masan Consumer Holdings achieved net revenues of
VND20.4trn, up by 10.5% y-o-y. Sales of seasonings, convenience foods, and home and personal care products rose by 21%, 8.3%
and 39.4%. These strong increases were attributed to sustained higher prices due to brand power, a higher margin product mix, the
ability to secure raw materials at low cost, and optimised demand and supply planning to improve manufacturing conversion cost.
Masan MeatLife’s revenues increased by 61.1% y-o-y, driven by stronger sales across almost all segments, notably processed meats,
which grew by 35.9% y-o-y, primarily driven by increased volumes. It was emphasised that MeatLife had reduced branded chilled
pork’s price gap with wet markets via exclusive prices for WIN members, resulting in a sustained 30% rise in daily revenues for
MeatLife products at WinCommerce outlets. Phúc Long Heritage improved its EBITDA margin to 20.8% by reallocating its Phúc
Long kiosks inside WinMart and WinMart+ stores. It also opened them at six new locations in Q3.
Masan stated that it would focus on several initiatives to continue its sustainable growth. WinCommerce plans to boost sales,
improving like-for-like growth to achieve higher store revenue levels. Masan Consumer Holdings will continue to focus on
innovating its beverages and home and personal care and convenience food products. Phúc Long Heritage aims to open new
stores, including 11 more by the end of 2023, and improve sales per store. Masan MeatLife expects to improve daily sales at
WinCommerce by focusing on a dynamic pricing strategy to enhance sales of slow-moving items and setting up distribution plans
to deliver the right assortment to the right store. It will roll out Meat Corners stalls in select locations, enhancing the visibility of
MeatDeli products, and scrupulously control costs. Masan Group will continue to invest in initiatives that build on the strengths of its
comprehensive retail consumer ecosystem, such as membership programmes and logistics systems.
In May, Masan Group announced that poor consumer confidence during the ongoing cost of living challenges led to lower than
expected Q1 outlet growth for its Phuc Long Coffee & Tea chain. Despite outlining a goal of opening a further 75 flagship Phuc Long
Coffee & Tea stores this year, Masan Group only opened three in Q123, alongside two ‘mini stores’. The company said that it will
open 10 flagship stores in Q223r and improve store sales and productivity, adding that it will limit losses from kiosks by testing new
operating models and closing underperforming locations. The group is trialling a ‘hub and spoke’ model for its kiosk sites, which
redirects online traffic from flagship stores to nearby kiosks during peak hours. Masan stated this has already increased the daily
revenue of its kiosks threefold during the pilot phase, while enabling flagship Phuc Long Coffee & Tea outlets to better serve in-store
customers.
In February, Masan announced the acquisition of a 25% stake in Singapore-based software developer Trust IQ. This will help the
company accelerate the application of artificial intelligence in retail and consumption, part of the strategy of creating a consumer,
retail and technology ecosystem capable of meeting 80% of the essential needs of the Vietnam's people.
In February, Masan Group announced that it is targeting international expansion for Phuc Long Coffee & Tea during 2024 and is
looking for the brand to become the largest coffee and tea chain in Vietnam 'within a few years'. Based on the current level of
growth, Masan Group expects the coffee chain to become Vietnam's second largest in terms of outlets by the end of June 2023.
2022
WinCommerce opened 730 new minimarts (WinMart+) and 8 supermarkets (WinMart) over 2022, ending the year with 3,268
WinMart+ locations and 130 WinMart outlets, solidifying WinCommerce's position as the largest modern retail network in the
market terms of number of outlets. During the year, WinCommerce also piloted 102 WIN stores, which bring together various Masan
products and services (including the Winmart+ convenience store, coffee chain Phuc Long Coffee & Tea, financial services firm
Techcombank, pharmacy Dr. Win and telecommunication services provider Reddi) in one location to cater to busy urban
consumers.
In April, the company invested USD65.0mn in Vietnam-based fintech firm Trusting Social. The investment aims to develop an AI-
based consumer tech platform which will offer customised retail and consumer financial products in Vietnam. The investment will
also help Masan leverage Trusting Social’s AI system for retail store selection, demand and supply planning, and product assortment
and development.
WinMart+ opened its first two franchised grocery store locations in Hanoi and Bắc Giang in Q122. Masan Group plans to have
20,000 franchised stores and 10,000 company-owned grocery stores by 2025.
Financial Data
Total Revenue
• 2022: VND28.1trn
• 2021: VND28.0trn
• 2020: VND23.3trn
• 2019: VND18.5trn
• 2018: VND17.0trn
Net Profit
• 2022: VND6.5trn
• 2021: VND5.5trn
• 2020: VND4.6trn
• 2019: VND4.0trn
• 2018: VND3.4trn
Nestlé Vietnam
• Nestlé Vietnam has a large market share. • Nestlé has struggled to turn a profit in Vietnam since
• Strong brand appeal increases its reach to young, entering the market.
aspirational Vietnamese consumers. • Domestic and multinational competition is high, even in this
• Its commitment to health and wellness will appeal to an fragmented marketplace. The company will have to continue
increasingly affluent middle class. adding capital investment to secure its market share.
• Strong price propositions appeal to emerging consumers. • Non-organised retailers account for the majority of grocery
sales.
• Disposable incomes are still low, and necessity remains a far
more important purchasing determinant than health.
• High birth rates create strong sales opportunities for Nestlé's • Local company Intimex is a key challenger to Nestlé.
infant nutrition products. • Further expansion in Nestlé's core dairy segment will
• Urbanisation and middle-class growth could dramatically necessitate significant supply chain investments to improve
increase the company's existing consumer base. distribution infrastructure.
• Rising incomes could increase the demand for non-essential • Input cost volatility cannot easily be passed on to consumers
consumer items. in such a price-sensitive environment.
• Relative sector immaturity provides massive long-term
growth opportunities.
Company Overview
Nestlé Vietnam is a wholly owned subsidiary of Switzerland-based food and beverage major Nestlé. The subsidiary manufactures
beverages, dairy products, prepared meals and cooking ingredients in six Vietnamese production plants. In terms of food and
beverage brands, the company markets Nescafé, La Vie, Nestea, Maggi and Nestlé (including Milo and KitKat) in Vietnam.
Strategy
In releasing its 2022 financial results, Nestlé confirmed that its strategy for Vietnam and its other Asia-Pacific emerging markets is to
focus on product affordability and accessibility. CFO Francois-Xavier Roger also highlighted that 'consumers in these markets
respond extremely well to product innovation, so this has become an important priority'. It was emphasised that having a good mix
of products is crucial in the region.
In a March 2023 press release, Nestlé Vietnam stated that it continues to implement plans to increase production to serve domestic
demand and diversify its export product portfolio to more than 25 markets. One of the main goals is to double its capacity to
process high-quality coffee so that some coffee product lines that previously had to be imported from Europe can be produced in
Vietnam. To this end, Nestlé Vietnam is expanding its production lines for high-value products such as Nescafé Dolce Gusto capsule
coffee and freeze-dried coffee.
In addition to technology investment, Nestlé Vietnam said that it is strengthening its research and development activities to
diversify its product portfolio and create added value in order to reach and exploit difficult markets. It is proactively developing
products according to the unique requirements of each market, meeting strict standards of quality and food safety for different
customer groups, such as halal or kosher customers.
Recent Developments
2024
In January, Nestlé launched a new product, coffee liquid concentrates that is ready-to-drink and only requires consumers to add an
recommended serving of ice. The new product is capitalising on the convenience trend and increasingly time-poor urban
consumers.
In January, Nestlé announced a USD100mn investment into a production facility located in Tri An that would double their existing
package coffee production. This include brands such as Nescafé, Nespresso, Starbucks and Blue Bottle.
2023
In August, Nestlé rebranded a Milo product that it had launched in Vietnam the previous year. The company expanded its Milo
ready-to-drink dairy and dairy alternatives range in Vietnam with the 'Milo Mindvibe' variant in 2022. The peppermint-flavoured malt
drink targets younger Vietnamese consumers with a formulation that includes ingredients claiming to boost mental cognition, such
as green tea, taurine, zinc and vitamin B. The product has now been renamed Milo Dynamind, which the company
says communicates the product’s brain-boosting functionality more lucidly to consumers. The packaging has been redesigned so
that the term 'nootropics' is printed boldly on the front label. Nestlé said that this term can attract the 57% of Vietnamese
consumers who deem that product attributes that are good for mental wellness are an essential feature when making a purchase.
The company is positioning the product as a drink that restores brain focus and energy levels after long study sessions or exercise
routines.
In May, Nestlé Vietnam launched NAN Optipro Plus 4 formula products containing five human milk oligosaccharides (HMOs), a
probiotic known as Bifidobacteria and Optipro protein, which the company says supports children’s digestion and strengthens
immune systems.
Also in May, it was announced that Vietnam is one of the markets where Nestlé is pioneering in applying digital transformation in
logistics activities in order to optimise the transportation/distribution of goods in the domestic market.
2022
In July, Nestlé introduced the Starbucks At Home instant coffee range in Vietnam. The range, which includes instant coffee serving
sticks of Dark Roast, Caramel Latte, Caffè Mocha and Caffè Latte flavours, is available online from Singaporean digital retailer Lazada
and from several Vietnamese supermarkets, including Topsmarket, Coop Xtra and Vinmart.
Saigon Alcohol Beer And Beverages Corporation
• Dominance in one of the world's highest-potential beer • A tough law enacted and closely enforced by the
markets provides strong growth opportunities. government to reduce driving under the influence may
• Strong economy beer brands Saigon Beer and Beer 333 are permanently slow the growth of beer companies, including
popular in the south. Sabeco.
• Its economy-heavy portfolio means that Sabeco brands tend • A predominantly economy portfolio reduces Sabeco's
to perform well even during periods of low consumer competitiveness in wealthy urban centres and its ability to
confidence. utilise the tourist dollar.
• Product and packaging innovation is seen as key to future • Since 2022, Vietnam's government has debated whether to
growth. increase the special consumption tax that applies to harmful
• A multinational corporation partnership would improve its products such as alcohol.
brand portfolio and boost the availability of capital. • The pace of expansion market leaders has raised concerns
• Tourism represents an excellent opportunity for Sabeco to that the beer industry is now over-supplied, particularly
enter the premium brand segment. when considering that much of the market's population
• Regional diversity allows for easy expansion in what remains have limited incomes.
an immature market despite high levels of investment. • The expansion of Carlsberg, APB and Habeco could threaten
Sabeco's market share.
Company Overview
Saigon Alcohol Beer and Beverages Corporation (Sabeco) is a leading brewer in Vietnam, controlling around 34.0% of total beer
sales in the market. Vietnam Beverage Company is the majority shareholder, holding a 53.6% ownership stake, while the
government holds another 36.0% through the State Capital Investment Corporation. Sabeco operates 26 plants across Vietnam,
with a total capacity of around 2.4bn litres a year. While beers are its core focus, the company also produces a range of spirits and
non-alcoholic drinks, including carbonated beverages and bottled water.
Strategy
In April 2023, the company stated that it is continuing its transformation journey, with a focus on improving its position in the
domestic market and expanding its penetration internationally. Key objectives are enhancing sales and marketing activities,
developing a stronger product portfolio, strengthening its route to market and distribution, driving production and supply chain
efficiencies and digitising business processes within the corporation.
Recent Developments
2023
In August, Sabeco announced the completion of phase one of its Warehouse Master Plan Project 2022-2024, which is part of its
'Supply Chain 4.0' initiative launched in 2020 in order to automate the transportation management process, order processing and
more to better control goods, reduce delivery times, optimise costs and improve operational efficiency. Saigon Beer Trading
Company - a member company of Sabeco - officially inaugurated a new distribution centre in Ho Chi Minh City. It is hoped that the
new centre, which has a total area of 31,000sq m and storage capacity for up to 30,000 pallets, will ensure the stability and
continuity of supplies to meet market demand in a timely manner and improve the competitiveness of Sabeco’s supply chain,
thereby increasing the company's competitive advantage.
2022
In August, Sabeco launched a new product called Bia Saigon Coffee Infused Beer that is made using Robusta and Arabica coffee
beans from the Central Highlands of Vietnam.
In March, the company revealed a new taste, packaging and positioning for Bia Saigon Special. The beer's taste has been improved
through the use of premium American Yakima hops and a brewing technique called 'dry hopping' for a more refreshing flavour than
the original. Bia Saigon Special has been a popular beer from the company for more than 20 years, and the revamp is meant to
target the changing demands of consumers.
In March, Sabeco completed the expansion of its Saigon Beer – Quang Ngai Brewery’s capacity to 250mn litres a year with a total
investment of VND650bn. The brewery is equipped with modern production lines imported from Germany with a high level of
automation, contributing to the company’s cost optimisation and efficiency improvement efforts.
Financial Data
Total Revenue
• 2022: VND35.0trn
• 2021: VND26.4trn
• 2020: VND28.0trn
• 2019: VND37.9trn
• 2018: VND35.9trn
Net Profit
• 2022: VND5.5trn
• 2021: VND3.9trn
• 2020: VND4.9trn
• 2019: VND5.4trn
• 2018: VND4.4trn
Saigon Co-Op
• Saigon Co-op has a very strong brand in the south, where its • For Saigon Co-op to remain competitive, it will have to make
name is synonymous with low prices. enormous, costly, scale-building investments.
• The retailer has established the base for a strong e- • Unlike its potential rivals, the company cannot make high-
commerce presence. risk investments, as it needs immediate returns in order to
• Operating in the supermarket, hypermarket and remain afloat.
convenience segments diversifies its audience. • Being a domestic operator does not give it a major
• With a focus on low-cost and, increasingly, private-label advantage over its foreign counterparts, unlike in many
goods, the company is well positioned for strong other markets in the region.
performance during periods of low consumer confidence.
• The retailer is focused on strengthening its e-commerce • The expansion of international retailers, such as AEON, poses
offering. a real threat to Saigon Co-op's market leadership, as it is far
• Price-cutting promotions are an excellent means of less experienced than many of its rivals.
generating customer loyalty, although they are becoming • Rising incomes mean that consumers, especially from the
increasingly hard to offer. growing middle class, might be looking for a more premium
• Seeking partnerships is a wise means of building scale in a shopping experience provided by competitors.
low-risk manner. • Its Vietnamese brand focus could backfire as Western brands
• Fresh food and convenience offerings offer strong long-term boom.
growth prospects.
Company Overview
Saigon Co-op is Vietnam's leading retailer. The firm has more than 800 supermarkets, hypermarkets and convenience stores under
the Co.op Mart, Co.op Xtra and Co.op Food, Co.op Smile and Cheers brands respectively.
Strategy
In early 2023, the company outlined its intention to continue focusing resources to rectify and consolidate its activities and improve
business efficiency. Key objectives include reforming its commodity and price strategy, enhancing competitive advantage,
implementing digitalisation in management activities, applying information technology, improving administrative efficiency,
promoting and diversifying e-commerce, increasing the quality and diversity of customer care services, enhancing the efficiency of
its retail models an preparing long-term plans for logistics activities.
In May 2023, on the occasion of its 10th birthday, the The Co.op Xtra hypermarket fascia highlighted its focus on diversifying its
range of domestic and imported products and its sales channels (direct and online). The brand aims to open one to two new outlets
a year nationwide through to 2030.
Recent Developments
2024
In January, Saigon Co.op announced a strategic partnership with South Korea-based logistics firm CJ Logistics to collectively operate
a new logistics centre in Ho Chi Minh City currently under construction.
2023
In July, 13 new Co.op Food stores opened, bringing the nationwide network to 571 outlets. This included the simultaneous opening
of four new Co.op Food stores in three cities across the country - Ho Chi Minh City, Bien Hoa and Thanh Hoa - in the last week of the
month. Currently, Saigon Co.op is focusing on accelerating the development of convenience store chains such as Co.op Food, Co.op
Smile and Cheers in new residential areas to access more customer groups. The company stated that Co.op Food, along with the
Co.op Mart supermarket and Co.op Xtra hypermarket fascias, is looking for new premises not only in inner city areas but also on the
outskirts.
In June, it was reported that Saigon Co-op became the leading grocery retailer in Vietnam with revenues of VND30.9trn in 2022,
including VND1.2trn from e-commerce sales. The retailer is focused on improving service quality and expanding its distribution
network to achieve a growth target of 4.5% in 2023. Saigon Co-op will concentrate on promoting and strengthening its e-
commerce offering as well as better integrating customer experience with the help of AI technology. Saigon Co-op is speeding up
the expansion of convenience store chains such as Co-op Food, Co-op. Smile and Cheers to diversify its store offering to facilitate its
e-commerce development.
2022
Over the course of the year, the company opened 34 new Co.op Food and Cheers stores, reflecting its current focus on its
convenience store segment. Saigon Co-op also reported that online sales accounted for 4.4% of its total sales over the year, higher
than the target of 3.5%.
San Miguel Pure Foods Vietnam
• Its parent company, San Miguel Corporation, is South East • Questions have been raised about Pure Foods's ability to
Asia's largest publicly listed food, beverage and packaging balance meat farming, feed manufacture and branded food
company, with significant financial power behind it. operations, with product focus tending to be the industry
• Its Le Gourmet processed meats brand has become a buzzword during periods of high operating costs.
household name. • It has faced significant negative publicity in recent years,
with accusations that its plant has caused serious
environmental and health issues.
• Branded consumer food products represent an important • Regional food hygiene scares have served to undermine
long-term growth channel for the company. consumer confidence in local meat producers.
• Processed meat products, which meet the emerging • Growing competition from international food manufacturers
demand for convenience, are likely to enjoy strong growth. could undermine any competitive advantage Pure Foods
possesses from being a regional player.
Company Overview
San Miguel Pure Foods belongs to the San Miguel Foods group of the Philippines. It manufactures and distributes value-added
products such as premium sausages, ham, bacon, pâté and traditional cold cuts to retail stores, primarily under its processed meats
brand Le Gourmet. The business has food service operations, catering to local and international fast-food chains, restaurants, hotels
and convenience stores.
Strategy
In its 2022 annual report, parent company San Miguel Food and Beverage outlined its current strategic priorities as follows:
• Intensifying its presence in all channels - with a focus on small convenience stores, wet markets and supermarkets - to maximise
reach and grow volumes
• Improving distribution, including by increasing the number of distributor sales personnel
• Launching vigorous, effective and compelling marketing campaigns and promotional activities
• Participating in year-round events on digital platforms
• Launching new products, with a focus on more value-added items
• Investing in facilities to create additional capacity
• Recover rising raw material costs, at least partially, through price increases
Financial Data
Total Revenue
• 2022: PHP358.8bn
• 2021: PHP309.7bn
• 2020: PHP279.3bn
• 2019: PHP310.8bn
• 2018: PHP286.4bn
Net Profit
• 2022: PHP34.6bn
• 2021: PHP31.4bn
• 2020: PHP12.2bn
• 2019: PHP18.3bn
• 2018: PHP18.2bn
Unilever Vietnam
• A focus on developing in emerging markets with high growth • Limited food product offerings compared with other food
potential should yield greater revenue and profits in the and drink multinationals limits further sales opportunities.
coming years. • The absence of a local partner could affect its ability to
• A strong showing in the personal care department. respond to changing local preferences.
• Strong brand appeal facilitates its reach to Vietnamese • Supply-chain investment may be needed for food sector
consumers. expansion, owing to the underdeveloped infrastructure.
• Its diverse product portfolio with multiple-price entry points • Weak distribution infrastructure makes it difficult to reach
allows the company to capitalise on varying demand from consumers.
different income groups.
• Complete ownership of its local subsidiary means that it has
full operational control.
• Focusing on affordability ensures that the company has
access to a wide lower-income consumer base.
• Urbanisation and middle-class growth could dramatically • Increased competition from rival multinationals and
increase Unilever Vietnam's existing consumer base. expansionary local and regional players could undermine the
• Rising incomes could increase the demand for non-essential company's strong market position.
consumer items. • Input cost volatility cannot easily be passed on in such a
• The relative immaturity of the sector provides long-term price-sensitive environment.
growth opportunities.
• Vietnam's favourable demographic profile is well suited to
Unilever's FMCG portfolio.
Company Overview
Unilever Vietnam is a wholly owned subsidiary of Anglo-Dutch fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) leader Unilever. The parent
company took full control of the subsidiary in mid-2009, buying the 33.3% stake it had not already owned from its local partner.
Personal care products account for the largest section of Unilever's portfolio in Vietnam by far. The company has a large number of
home care brands. Its presence in the food sector is smaller than that of its other consumer products, but it does have some
notable brands in Knorr and Wall's. Unilever has two production plants – one in Ho Chi Minh City and the other in the northern
province of Bac Ninh – and five distribution centres in Vietnam.
Strategy
In early 2023, the former CEO of Unilever, while visiting Vietnam, stated that the company will continue to invest in the market, in
terms of production, brand and people development.
In April 2023, Unilever reported that, since traditional trade (primarily markets) account for 75% of the company's product sales in
Vietnam, and mini-marts are the fastest-growing offline channel, its local team is focusing on reaching hundreds of thousands of
stores to make Unilever products available for people in rural and urban communities. The local team is also pioneering a business-
to-business digital distribution model with the ‘OrderUNow’ mobile application, which helps retailers across the country directly
import goods from Unilever.
Unilever stated that it was leading in the direct-to-customer model through its UShop e-commerce ecosystem, specialising in
selling Unilever products through its own branded online store. The company claims to have become one of the top names in e-
commerce platforms in Vietnam, as well as a strategic partner for supermarket chains. It plans to continue focusing on digital
transformation.
Unilever stated that a number of brands and categories across its portfolio are so far under-represented in Vietnam, so it is planning
to take action to address this by growing its presence.
Recent Developments
2023
In November, Unilever re-affirmed commitment to creating a carbon net-zero value chain by 2039. This includes replacing virgin
plastic with post-consumed resin plastics as well as building and maintaining new renewable energy and waste management
systems.
In April, Unilever reported that its business in Vietnam consistently outpaces market growth and crossed the EUR1bn turnover
milestone in 2022, reporting broad-based double-digit growth with positive volumes. Vietnam is Unilever's 12th-biggest business,
and the company sees enormous potential in the market due to its thriving economy and the leading positions that its brands have
across many categories. Almost 80% of the brands in its portfolio in Vietnam are ranked first in terms of sales and consumer choice,
and the 10 biggest brands (including Knorr) account for 85% of the business in the market.
In early 2023, Unilever's then-Chief Executive Officer, Alan Jope, stated that Unilever has ambitions for the Vietnam market and
expects it to double in the next five to 10 years. In South East Asia, Vietnam and Indonesia are the most attractive markets for
Unilever, due to their large populations and well-managed economies. According to Jope, since the per capita consumption of
consumer products in Vietnam is still quite low, there is much room for growth.
Financial Data
Note: Unilever does not publish country-specific performance data. Vietnam is included within the 'Asia Pacific Africa' operating
region.
Total Revenue (Asia-Pacific & Africa)
• 2022: EUR27.5bn
• 2021: EUR24.3bn
• 2020: EUR23.4bn
• 2019: EUR24.1bn
• 2018: EUR22.9bn
Net Profit
• 2022: na
• 2021: EUR4.5bn
• 2020: EUR4.1bn
• 2019: EUR4.4bn
• 2018: EUR4.3bn
Vietnam Demographic Outlook

Demographic analysis is a key pillar of our macroeconomic and industry forecasting model. The total population and demographic
profile of a market are key variables in consumer demand and are essential to understanding issues ranging from future population
trends to productivity growth and government spending requirements.
The accompanying charts detail the population pyramid for 2022, the change in the structure of the population between 2022 and
2050 and the total population between 1990 and 2050. The tables show indicators from all of these charts, in addition to key
metrics such as population ratios, the urban/rural split and life expectancy.
Population
Vietnam - Population, mn (1990-2050)
f = BMI forecast. Source: World Bank, UN, BMI
Population Pyramid
Vietnam – 2022 Male vs Female Population, '000 (LHC) & 2022 vs 2050 Population, '000 (RHC)
Source: World Bank, UN, BMI
Population Headline Indicator

Indicatorss (Vietnam 1990-2025)
Indicator 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025f
Population, total, '000 66,912.6 79,001.1 83,142.1 87,411.0 92,191.4 96,648.7 100,104.0
Population, % yy-o-y
-o-y 1.12 1.01 1.07 1.05 0.91 0.61
Population, total, male, '000 32,660.5 38,652.1 40,824.1 43,048.3 45,481.5 47,726.2 49,492.9
Population, total, ffemale,
emale, '000 34,252.1 40,349.1 42,318.0 44,362.7 46,709.9 48,922.5 50,611.1
Key P
Population
opulation Ratios (Vietnam 1990-2025)
Indicator 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025f
Activ
Activee population, total, '000 37,501.8 49,317.4 55,058.8 60,511.5 64,125.6 66,571.1 67,896.6
Activ
Activee population, % of total population 56.0 62.4 66.2 69.2 69.6 68.9 67.8
Dependent population, total, '000 29,410.8 29,683.7 28,083.3 26,899.5 28,065.8 30,077.6 32,207.4
Dependent rratio,
atio, % of total w
working
orking age 78.4 60.2 51.0 44.5 43.8 45.2 47.4
Youth population, total, '000 25,647.4 24,785.6 22,758.3 21,230.5 21,590.5 21,932.6 21,787.3
Youth population, % of total w
working
orking age 68.4 50.3 41.3 35.1 33.7 32.9 32.1
Pensionable population, '000 3,763.4 4,898.1 5,325.0 5,669.1 6,475.3 8,145.0 10,420.1
Pensionable population, % of total w
working
orking age 10.0 9.9 9.7 9.4 10.1 12.2 15.3
Urban/R
Urban/Rur
ural
al P
Population
opulation And Lif
Lifee Expectancy (Vietnam 1990-2025)
Indicator 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025f
Urban population, '000 13,554.5 19,255.7 22,682.0 26,587.8 31,169.0 36,088.6 40,951.5
Urban population, % of total 20.3 24.4 27.3 30.4 33.8 37.3 40.9
Rur
ural
al population, '000 53,358.1 59,745.4 60,460.1 60,823.2 61,022.4 60,560.1 59,152.4
Rur
ural
al population, % of total 79.7 75.6 72.7 69.6 66.2 62.7 59.1
Lif
Lifee eexpectancy
xpectancy at bir
birth,
th, male, yyear
earss 64.8 67.8 68.5 68.8 69.1 70.8 70.5
Lif
Lifee eexpectancy
xpectancy at bir
birth,
th, ffemale,
emale, yyear
earss 73.7 77.1 78.0 78.3 78.7 79.9 79.7
Lif
Lifee eexpectancy
xpectancy at bir
birth,
th, av
aver
erage,
age, yyear
earss 69.2 72.5 73.3 73.5 73.9 75.4 75.1
Population B
Byy Age Gr
Group
oup (Vietnam 1990-2025)
Indicator 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025f
Population, 0-4 yr
yrs,
s, total, '000 9,119.4 7,161.4 7,095.3 7,129.4 7,485.3 7,429.6 7,035.5
Population, 5-9 yr
yrs,
s, total, '000 8,725.7 8,669.0 7,106.9 7,047.5 7,088.1 7,443.8 7,391.0
Population, 10-14 yr
yrs,
s, total, '000 7,802.2 8,955.2 8,556.1 7,053.5 7,017.2 7,059.2 7,360.8
yrs,
s, total, '000 6,883.5 8,598.9 8,516.7 8,312.3 7,012.8 6,979.8 6,909.7
yrs,
s, total, '000 5,736.9 7,694.3 8,105.2 8,185.4 8,242.8 6,955.4 6,866.9
yrs,
s, total, '000 5,484.3 6,788.9 7,494.9 7,940.4 8,120.0 8,177.0 6,985.7
yrs,
s, total, '000 5,098.4 5,649.6 6,733.7 7,427.1 7,873.1 8,052.6 8,188.5
yrs,
s, total, '000 3,982.5 5,386.3 5,616.5 6,676.2 7,350.3 7,795.1 7,978.4
yrs,
s, total, '000 2,747.9 4,985.8 5,360.3 5,568.1 6,589.7 7,258.1 7,677.3
yrs,
s, total, '000 2,033.4 3,870.6 4,966.6 5,308.0 5,475.6 6,483.8 7,111.1
yrs,
s, total, '000 1,946.5 2,642.5 3,842.2 4,888.4 5,183.0 5,350.9 6,299.1
yrs,
s, total, '000 1,979.5 1,916.9 2,585.1 3,733.5 4,722.8 5,014.0 5,127.5
yrs,
s, total, '000 1,608.9 1,783.7 1,837.5 2,471.9 3,555.5 4,504.3 4,752.3
yrs,
s, total, '000 1,366.5 1,726.6 1,653.3 1,703.7 2,288.8 3,294.4 4,171.5
yrs,
s, total, '000 1,003.2 1,289.0 1,516.5 1,454.7 1,503.1 2,029.4 2,921.0
yrs,
s, total, '000 736.4 951.1 1,041.3 1,230.2 1,182.4 1,228.8 1,668.8
yrs,
s, total, '000 407.6 550.3 667.7 737.3 875.0 846.0 883.0
yrs,
s, total, '000 191.6 275.3 308.8 380.5 424.3 510.3 492.4
yrs,
s, total, '000 50.1 86.3 112.2 128.7 161.2 183.9 221.9
yrs,
s, total, '000 7.5 18.0 22.7 30.4 35.7 46.1 53.4
Population, 100+ yr
yrs,
s, total, '000 0.5 1.5 2.7 3.5 4.9 6.0 8.2
Population B
Byy Age Gr
Group,
oup, % (Vietnam 1990-2025)
Indicator 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025f
Population, 0-4 yr
yrs,
s, % total 13.63 9.06 8.53 8.16 8.12 7.69 7.03
Population, 5-9 yr
yrs,
s, % total 13.04 10.97 8.55 8.06 7.69 7.70 7.38
yrs,
s, % total 11.66 11.34 10.29 8.07 7.61 7.30 7.35
yrs,
s, % total 10.29 10.88 10.24 9.51 7.61 7.22 6.90
yrs,
s, % total 8.57 9.74 9.75 9.36 8.94 7.20 6.86
yrs,
s, % total 8.20 8.59 9.01 9.08 8.81 8.46 6.98
yrs,
s, % total 7.62 7.15 8.10 8.50 8.54 8.33 8.18
yrs,
s, % total 5.95 6.82 6.76 7.64 7.97 8.07 7.97
yrs,
s, % total 4.11 6.31 6.45 6.37 7.15 7.51 7.67
yrs,
s, % total 3.04 4.90 5.97 6.07 5.94 6.71 7.10
yrs,
s, % total 2.91 3.34 4.62 5.59 5.62 5.54 6.29
yrs,
s, % total 2.96 2.43 3.11 4.27 5.12 5.19 5.12
yrs,
s, % total 2.40 2.26 2.21 2.83 3.86 4.66 4.75
yrs,
s, % total 2.04 2.19 1.99 1.95 2.48 3.41 4.17
yrs,
s, % total 1.50 1.63 1.82 1.66 1.63 2.10 2.92
yrs,
s, % total 1.10 1.20 1.25 1.41 1.28 1.27 1.67
yrs,
s, % total 0.61 0.70 0.80 0.84 0.95 0.88 0.88
yrs,
s, % total 0.29 0.35 0.37 0.44 0.46 0.53 0.49
yrs,
s, % total 0.07 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.19 0.22
yrs,
s, % total 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.05
Population, 100+ yr
yrs,
s, % total 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01
Food & Drink Glossary

Food & Drink
Food Consumption: All four food consumption indicators (food consumption in local currency, food consumption in US dollar
terms, per capita food consumption and food consumption as a percentage of GDP) relate to off-trade food and non-alcoholic
drinks consumption, unless stated in the relevant table/section.
Off-trade: Relates to an item consumed away from the premises on which it was purchased. For example, a bottle of water bought
in a supermarket would count as off-trade, while a bottle of water purchased as part of a meal in a restaurant would count as on-
trade.
Canned Food: Relates to the sale of food products preserved by canning. This is inclusive of canned meat and fish, canned ready
meals, canned desserts and canned fruits and vegetables. Volume sales are measured in tonnes as opposed to on a unit basis to
allow for cross-market comparisons.
Confectionery: Refers to retail sales of chocolate, sugar confectionery and gum products. Chocolate sales include chocolate bars
and boxed chocolates; gum sales incorporate both bubble gum and chewing gum; and sugar confectionery sales include hard-
boiled sweets, mints, jellies and medicated sweets.
Trade: In the majority of BMI's Food & Drink reports, we use the UN Standard International Trade Classification, using categories
Food and Live Animals, Beverages and Tobacco, Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats and Waxes and Oil-seeds and Oleaginous Fruits.
Where an alternative classification is used due to data availability, this is clearly stated.
Drinks Sales: Soft drinks sales (including carbonates, fruit juices, energy drinks, bottled water, functional beverages and ready-to-
drink tea and coffee), alcoholic drinks sales (including beer, wine and spirits) and tea and coffee sales (excluding ready-to-drink tea
and coffee products that are incorporated under our soft drinks banner) are all off-trade only, unless stated.
Mass Grocery Retail
Mass Grocery Retail: We classify mass grocery retail (MGR) as organised retail, performed by companies with a network of modern
grocery retail stores and modern distribution networks. MGR differs from independent or traditional retail, which relates to informal,
independent-owned grocery stores or traditional market retailing. MGR incorporates hypermarket, supermarket, convenience and
discount retailing, and in unique cases cooperative retailing. Where supermarkets are independently owned and not classified as
MGR, we will state so clearly within the relevant report.
Hypermarket: We classify hypermarkets as retail outlets selling both groceries and a large range of general merchandise goods
(non-food items) and typically more than 2,500sq m in size. Traditionally only found on the outskirts of towns, hypermarkets are
increasingly appearing in urban locations.
Supermarket: Supermarkets are the original and still most globally prevalent form of self-service grocery retail outlet. We classify
supermarkets as more than 300sq m, up to the size of a hypermarket. The typical supermarket carries both fresh and processed
food and will stock a range of non-food items, most commonly household and beauty goods. The average supermarket will
increasingly offer some added-value services, such as dry cleaning or in-store ATMs.
Discount Stores: Although most commonly between 500sq m and 1,500sq m in size, similar to supermarkets, discount stores will
typically have a smaller floor space than their supermarket counterparts. Other distinguishing features include the prevalence of
low-priced and private label goods, an absence of added-value services, often called a no-frills environment, and a high product
turnover rate.
Convenience Stores: Our classification of convenience stores includes small outlets typically less than 300sq m in size, with long
opening hours and located in high footfall areas. These stores mainly sell fast-moving food and drink products (such as
confectionery, beverages and snack foods) and non-food items, typically stocking only two or three brand choices per item and
often carrying higher prices than other forms of grocery store.
Cooperatives: We classify cooperatives as retail stores that are independently owned but club together to form buying groups
under a cooperative arrangement, trading under the same banner, although each is privately owned. The arrangement is similar to a
franchise system, although all profits are returned to members. The term is becoming more archaic, with fewer cooperatives
remaining that conform to this model. Most cooperative groups now have a more centralised management structure, operate more
like normal supermarkets, and are thus classified as such in our reports.
Food & Drink Methodology

Connected Thinking
BMI employs a unique methodology known as 'Connected Thinking'. This means that our analysis captures the inter-relatedness of
the global economy, and takes into account all of the relevant political, macroeconomic, financial market and industry factors that
underpin a forecast and view. We then integrate them so as to explain how they interact and affect each other. Our Connected
Thinking approach provides our customers with unique and valuable insight on all relevant macroeconomic, political and industry
risk factors that will impact their operations and revenue-generating potential in the industry/industries within which they operate.
We use a transparent forecasting model as a base for our industry forecasts, but rely heavily on our analysts' expert judgement to
ensure our forecasts capture all of the insights we derive using our unique Connected Thinking approach. We believe analyst
expertise and judgement are the best ways to provide the most accurate, up-to-date and comprehensive insight to our customers.
Food & Drink Methodology
BMI's Food & Drink Forecasting And Sourcing
For the Food & Drink industry we have historical data and five-year forecasts for 101 market-level core industry variables.
We use household spending figures that show spending on food and drink, for consumption at home via retail purchases. We divide
food and drink into two categories: (i) spending on food & non-alcoholic drinks, and (ii) alcoholic drinks.
For the alcoholic drinks sub-categories, we use volume (in litres) consumption by household and per capita in each market; this is
measured via both on and off trade.
Our forecasts are a combination of regression modelling, time series analysis and analyst expert judgement.
Our Food & Drink analysts interact with other analytical teams in BMI, including Country Risk, Agribusiness and Consumer & Retail.
This is to ensure they have a comprehensive understanding of external factors that may impact the food and drink industry outlook
either on a market, regional or global level.
There is a constant rolling cycle of data monitoring, with databases being updated on a quarterly basis. Analysts will use their expert
judgement outside of these cycles to implement forecasts changes when necessary.
Our global currency (US dollar and euro) values are calculated using prevailing and forecast exchange rates to allow for consistency
and comparability across different markets. Markets that are experiencing instability or high rates of inflation with low levels of
international trade can be so exposed to this that official or market exchange rates do not reflect the real exchange rate on the
ground. Similarly, this can also be the case in markets with high rates of self-sufficiency in a certain commodity, where little or no
trade is taking place and thus no demand and supply of its currency affects its conversion price. This can overinflate global currency
conversions for a certain period of time.
Food & Non-Alcoholic Drinks
Spending on food & non-alcoholic drinks is expressed in nominal terms.
We define spending on food & non-alcoholic drinks as the amount households spend on food for domestic consumption only. This
reflects items bought through retail sales channels, based on the UN classification of individual consumption by purpose (COICOP).
Historical figures for spending on food & non-alcoholic drinks are based on household survey data, following the UN COICOP
classifications.
Where spending data is not readily allocated into the COICOP format, we apply a rigorous and logical approach in allocating data to
align with these categories, and if needed, apply aggregation methods or other techniques to achieve category level data.
Our food & non-alcoholic drinks forecasts are based on regression model and other time series analysis models, using a market’s
own historical time series and key macroeconomic explanatory variables from our Country Risk and Consumer & Retail services. In
addition, we also apply analyst expert judgement to refine and finalise the food & non-alcoholic drinks spending forecast based on
exogenous and endogenous variables or events, not captured by our regression model.
Alcoholic Drinks
Spending on alcoholic drinks is expressed in nominal terms and volume terms.
We define spending on alcoholic drinks as the amount households spend on alcohol for domestic consumption only. This reflects
items bought through all sales channels, based on the UN classification of individual consumption by purpose (COICOP).
Historical figures for spending on alcoholic drinks are based on household survey data, following the UN COICOP classification.
Alcoholic drink consumption is defined as the total recorded volume of alcohol drinks consumed in a market. Data is presented in
volumes consumed as opposed to pure alcoholic volume. It refers to consumption by people aged 15 and older and all sales
channels of consumption, including out-of-home consumption, such as bars, restaurants etc.
We divide the alcoholic drinks category into beer, wine and spirits, as well as further breakdowns, where data is available, into sub-
categories of these segments.
Our alcoholic drinks forecasts are based on a regression model, using a market's own historical time series. In addition, we also apply
analyst expert judgement to refine and finalise the alcoholic drinks spending forecast based on exogenous and endogenous
variables or events, not captured by our regression model.
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Q2 2024

Industry Trends And Developments .....................................................................................................................................20

Vietnam Demographic Outlook ..............................................................................................................................................57

Food & Drink Glossary ................................................................................................................................................................61

Food & Drink Methodology .......................................................................................................................................................62

© 2024 Fitch Solutions Group Limited. All rights reserved.

Copyright © 2024 Fitch Solutions Group Limited.

Strong Growth Forecast Over The Medium Term

e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National statistics, BMI

Latest Updates And Industry Developments

Food Prices Inflation Will Remain Elevated Over 2024

Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam, BMI

Inflation Will Persist Over The Short Term

Food Spending Outlook For 2024

Food Sales Remain Stable Over Medium Term

e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National statistics, BMI

bone strength and supporting a dairy-rich diet for children’s development.

Food Sales (Vietnam 2024-2028)

Alcoholic Drinks Outlook For 2024

Alcohol Consumption Growth Remains Stable

e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: WHO, BMI

Non-Alcoholic Drinks Outlook For 2024

Steady Growth Forecast Through To 2028

e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National statistics, BMI

Industry Trends And Developments

Dietary Shift Spending Overview

Market Is Gradually Maturing With Strong Growth In Food Spending

e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National statistics, BMI

Three Food Categories Dominate Spending Patterns

f = BMI forecast. Source: National sources, BMI

Consumers Are Making More Health-Conscious Decisions

Healthier Food Categories Have Attracted Significant Growth

f = BMI forecast. Source: National statistics, BMI

e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National statistics, BMI

Dairy Consumption Has Increased Significantly Over The Years

e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: OECD-FAO, BMI

Market Drivers And Trends

Market Drivers And Trends

Mass Grocery Retail

Market Drivers And Trends

Source: Trade press, company data, BMI

Source: Trade press, company data, BMI

Source: Trade press, company data, BMI

Financial year ending December 31

Total Revenues (Asia Region)

Hanoi Beer Alcohol And Beverage Joint Stock Corporation

Financial year ending on December 31

Masan Consumer Corporation

Financial year ending December 31

Saigon Alcohol Beer And Beverages Corporation

Financial year ending December 31

San Miguel Pure Foods Vietnam

Financial year ending December 31

Financial year ending December 31

Total Revenue (Asia-Pacific & Africa)

Vietnam Demographic Outlook

f = BMI forecast. Source: World Bank, UN, BMI

Source: World Bank, UN, BMI

Population Headline Indicator

Food & Drink Glossary

Mass Grocery Retail

Food & Drink Methodology

Food & Drink Methodology