Chapter Two

Objectives of the thesis

2.1 An overview of social security in the long-term era

Many countries are experiencing rapid aging of their populations as a result of declining fertility
and increasing life expectancy. The United Nations projects that by 2050, the old-age
dependency ratio (the percentage of those aged 65 or over in the working-age population) will
double. Demand and supply throughout the economy are changing both qualitatively and
quantitatively as a result of these demographic shifts. The study of how population aging affects
the macroeconomy is expanding in response to population aging. However, the impact of
population aging on the efficiency of macroeconomic strategies has not received much attention
(World Bank group, 2019).

Providing an acceptable level of income for the entire elderly population without unduly
burdening younger generations or national economies will be one of the greatest difficulties
facing countries with aging populations in the future. This dilemma directly affects social
security programs and their ability to achieve their goals (mei Xue,et al, 2022).

Population aging, affecting an increasing number of countries, has led to growing concerns about
the future of social security, both in terms of its usefulness and in terms of the ability of these
societies to extend coverage to include a large portion of the population who are living a free life.
Quietly left out Social Security benefits. The financial sustainability of pension and health care
plans in countries with aging populations is a major topic of discussion when it comes to pension
reform and reducing health care costs. The continuity of social protection programs in these
cities over the next few decades will directly impact our ability to assess their future. Not only
the economic dynamics, but also the social dynamics of an aging population must be taken into
account (Lunenfeld & Stratton, 2013).

Demographic shifts over time and their actual long-term effects are two of the many obstacles
that social security systems must overcome. The overall economy and public budgets in
industrialized countries are under serious threat due to growing pension expenditures. Many
developing countries are now dealing with serious problems. Recently, many developing

1
countries have faced a significant increase in their elderly population and, as a result, their old-
age pension system is unable to adapt to all these changes and to the growing social needs of
their societies. As such, it is a reality that the increase in the elderly population is a real issue that
any country has to deal with, both socially and financially (Mester, 2018).

2.2 Pension systems adopted by some of the richest economies around the world

The ramifications of the policies implemented by the governments of some of the world's biggest
economies-the United States, China, Japan, Germany, and Brazil-will be the main topic of this
study's discussion in this chapter.

In order to see if the current social security systems used by the governments of the
aforementioned countries have the capacity to build and develop appropriate reforms to maintain
the stability of the global pension system, we also want to extend our work by using the
prediction function to model a number of databases. Population aging is a result of decreased
fertility and rising life expectancy (Bitinas, 2019).

Society is greatly affected by the trend of globalization. Seniors are particularly affected by these
developments because they are unable to keep up with the latest technological developments that
provide current professionals with a competitive advantage. These events have the effect of
increasing the number of low-wage and non-professional employees, which in turn leads to a
decrease in the amount of payments received for the Social Security budget. In order to create a
more secure and sustainable social security budget in light of all these issues, governments must
enact new reforms (POLOGEORGIS, 2023).

As a result, governments have implemented pension reforms over the past several years with the
aim of encouraging older people to postpone retirement and work longer. Countries are under
pressure from the competitive forces of globalization. Overall, globalization exposes social
security systems to the risk of reducing coverage, but it also makes it urgently necessary to
ensure social security coverage for employees in insecure positions. Therefore, especially in
industrialized countries, the public retirement system must adapt to the demographic shifts
observed over the past several decades. Life expectancy, which is steadily increasing in most
countries, is a critical issue that all governments must take into account. According to the data,
there has been a noticeable increase in a serious issue that any government must take into

2
consideration, which is life expectancy, the trend of which is constantly rising in most countries.
At the global level, statistics indicate a significant increase in life expectancy by about 20 years.
At the same time, fertility rates fell below the required fertility rate of 2.1 births per woman
(ISSA Publications, 2010).

The public retirement system is negatively affected by low birth rates and high life expectancy
rates. And we might say that the difficulties faced by many countries around the world - a
declining working population and an increasing number of retirees - May also have a negative
impact on the negative impact. Governments are unable to maintain the sustainability of the
pension budget in the face of all these financial difficulties, which necessitates the need to
change real institutions (Davis, 2013).

It also analyzes the effects of all these problems in light of the global financial and economic
crisis that began in mid-2007 and caused severe damage to national economies. We believe it is
important to discuss the broad implications of the crisis and how it will impact retirement
accounts. The future crisis and the characteristics of policy responses have emphasized the
crucial role played by social security institutions in achieving national social policy objectives.
Social security institutions play an important role in every country, and often have a specific
place within governments. It is the ideal medium for distributing not only rewards but also
services and information because of its close proximity to the general public. Their databases can
provide information to policy makers to help develop policies. Their databases can help policy
makers formulate policies, informing them of what is possible. Social security institutions are the
implementers of the policy, determining whether the policy actually implemented is as intended
or different (Langley, 2014).

Therefore, there is a strong case for governments to rely more on social security organizations
when formulating policies, especially in times of crisis. The study (ISSA, 2011) provided the
following facts about the demographic structure of the world population:

2010 There are 740 million people aged 60 order and forecasts show us that this will
rise to 2 billion by 2050.
2010 64 per cent of those aged 60 or older live in the less- developed regions and this
percentage will rise to 79 by 2050.
2009 55 per cent of those aged 60 or order were woman.

3
 2010 There are 100 million people aged 80 or order around the world and this will
rise to 400 million by 2050.
2009 Life expectancy at age 60 for Japan Woman was an additional 22 years.
2009 The fertility rate in Germany was 1,3.
The share of older adults out of the total population in Jordan from 1950 to 2050a

Population 1950 1975 2000 2015c 2025 2050

Thousand Thousand Thousand Thousand Thousand Thousand
(%) b (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

Total 472.5 1 936.7 4 913.1 6613.6 8 666.1 11 709.1

+60 35.1 (7.4) 84.1 (4.3) 223. (4.5) 406.2 (6.1) 609.2 (7.0) 1821.3 (15.6)
+65 22.9 (4.8) 55.0 (2.8) 137.0 (2.8) 278.8 (4.2) 374.0 (4.3) 1315.2 (11.2)
+80 2.0 (0.4) 6.7 (0.3) 17.8 (0.4) 41.2 (0.6) 63.7 (0.7) 254.5 (2.2)
Males/Total 245.2 990.7 2553.9 3368.1 4444.1 5931.0
+60 18.8 (7.7) 41.0 (4.1) 113.4 (4.4) 204.7 (6.1) 300.7 (6.8) 878.8 (14.8)
+65 12.2 (5) 27.0 (2.7) 68.3 (2.7) 140.0 (4.2) 178.0 (4.0) 625.7 (10.5)
+80 1.1 (0.4) 3.0 (0.3) 8.5 (0.3) 20.2 (0.6) 28.6 (0.6) 109.7 (1.8)
Females/Total 227.3 946.0 2359.3 3245.5 4222.1 5778.2
+60 16.3 (7.1) 43.2 (4.6) 110.0 (4.7) 201.5 (6.2) 308.6 (7.3) 942.6 (16.3)
+65 10.7 (4.7) 28.3 (3.0) 69.0 (2.9) 138.1 (4.3) 196.0 (4.6) 689.7 (11.9)
+80 0.9 (0.4) 3.7 (0.4) 9.3 (0.4) 21.0 (0.65) 35.2 (0.8) 144.8 (2.5)
Source:

a (World Population Ageing:1950-2050, 2002), (Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World
Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables, 2015) b % of the total
population c (DOS, 2015)

Almost everywhere in the world, the elderly population is growing more rapidly than the general
population. Jordan is no exception, as this rapid growth is particularly evident among the elderly
(80+), whose number has increased by 6.6% annually compared to the country's overall
population growth rate of 3.1% recently. Years. In addition, it is expected that by 2050, the total
population will double to 11.7 million, constituting 15.8% of the population. The number of
seniors (60+) is expected to grow more than eight-fold, to 1.85 million. It is worth noting that
Jordan is expected to witness faster growth rates for its older population compared to the rest of
the world (United Nations, 2015).

4
The actual financial and economic crisis had a detrimental impact on governments that relied on
rising productivity rates or improved economic performance to restore the long-term viability of
their pension budgets. Because the economic recovery in the coming years is unlikely to offset
all the financial losses and difficulties caused by demographic shifts, the fallout from the mid-
2007 crisis has become vastly more serious (Yermo & Severinson, 2010).

It is well known that the state of the labor market has a significant impact on pensions, and that
many pension systems would be in a better financial position if more people of working age were
employed and made contributions. All of these problems are related to unemployment rates,
population health issues, lack of qualifications, lack of mobility, etc. Over the past few years,
public retirement systems have undergone a number of fundamental adjustments. The equity of
public pension budgets is a concern. In order to offset increased expenses, contribution rates may
be increased. Benefits can also be reduced to some extent by amending eligibility criteria or
regulations governing indexation of pensions. Based on an analysis of the current demographic
landscape and its potential to change, pension systems are likely to remain at the center of the
discussion. Many recent pension reforms were adopted to provide fiscal balance, but they
achieved this by reducing benefits. However, there is a need to find an acceptable balance
between the generosity of benefits and what the system can actually deliver (Amaglobeli, et al.,
2019).

2.3 Estimate the level of contributions that will be collected in the future

In order to estimate the default level of contributions, the study (Chen , el al, 2022) analyzed
historical data from 1980 to 2009 in order to predict the likely amount of donations collected in
the future, and then proposed a forecasting methodology. Given the variety of factors that
influence statistics, we believe it would be incorrect to use the historical level of Social Security
contributions. We have to start by dealing with effective tax rates and tax structures, which are
internal to the government and therefore not statistically sterile.

In addition to possible changes in the economic behavior of entities supporting government

activities (be they persons, companies, etc.), there may also be issues related to reporting or
documenting errors or omissions. There is no real way to reproduce any of these differences;
therefore, we consider it fair to ignore them and proceed under the optimistic assumption that all
participants in the economy will carry out any official tasks completely and quickly. Despite the

5
optimism, it is also important to remember that committed countries tend to be either very
developed (such as Germany, Japan, and the United States) or subject to strict government
control (such as Brazil and China). These elements allow us to reliably predict that there will not
be any significant economic changes in the near future, which greatly enhances the accuracy of
our analysis (Chen ,et al, 2022).

Because of these factors, a simpler but more effective approach to determining the notional
amount of contributions should be established in the following paragraphs. By drawing on
econometric assumptions and current examination of the state of social security programs
globally (Plamondon, et al., 2006).

It is important to note up front that all the countries examined in the following pages use systems
based on fixed, required tax rates that are set by law but can be increased (via voluntary
payments). As a result, every estimate and analysis must be based on an accurate and reasonable
assessment of the tax base at specific rates, paying particular attention to each country. We feel
that the product between the total economically active population and the average monthly wage
in each country is an effective approximation because wages and monthly income are often taken
as the tax base. Although many important items, such as income from capital investments or
income from self-employment, are not included, there are often more benefits to using such
precise statistics than disadvantages. The model is based on the assumption that these statistics
are accurately calculated by national statistical institutions and that they will not be subject to
major shocks in the medium term. But since the economically active population is closely linked
to very fundamental economic factors such as effective population growth and fiscal balance,
which are expected in the coming years (affecting the entire forecast period), it is reasonable to
assume that it will not deviate significantly from the official forecast (Cingano, 2014).

It is believed that it is appropriate to choose the tax rate that will be the most stable at the end of
the considered period since our focus is on accurately forecasting the notional level of
contributions to be received in the future. The actual maturity of the governments examined in
this study, which ensures a high level of legislative stability, serves as the basis for such an
estimate. We might assume that these systems are reliable because many social security systems
underwent major revisions in the aftermath of the recent global financial crisis. Another benefit
of this strategy is that it is more economically sound. All-important analytical models work on

6
the basic assumption that economic variables always tend to move in the direction of their
effective equilibrium point (Petropoulos, et al., 2022).

We have used an analysis of the effective contribution tax rate, which is linked to government-
reported earnings in the countries under consideration, to determine the required tax rate. As a
result, the following is the model we apply to calculate the theoretical rate of contributions
recoverable in one year:

SSTax Rate t =CC et /¿

SSTaxRatet – the tax rate for social security contributions in year t CCet – contributions
collected in year t, relative to GDP Em. Pop. – total employed population in year t Avg.Wage –
average wage in year t, relative to GDP.

There are several reasons for the discrepancies between the reported amount of Social Security
contributions and our findings, including collection rates, system complexity (possible
deductions for certain income or employee groups, for example), and data entry errors. Since
these factors cannot be removed using traditional methods, we chose to find an economically
effective tax rate based on econometric analysis and logical correlation with adjustments to
probationary social security systems. In our research, the period from 2010 to 2025, which serves
as a forecast period for the volume of contributions raised, is modeled as a two-step procedure.
First, we choose to forecast variables with a generally linear and constant economic path, such as
average earnings and pension payments. In order to avoid white noise shocks, a least squares
model was used to estimate salaries based on historical data. This model was then adjusted using
a 5-period moving average. In order to accurately evaluate this very important statistic that
contains many internal development variables (births, deaths, etc.), the results were then linked
to the number of expected employees, as calculated for the period 2010-2025 by the Inter
National Labor Organization (ILO - Laborista). The prediction of contributions received for the
Social Security budget in 2010 and 2025 was calculated by multiplying this by the SSTAxRate
we found in the previous calculation:

CC t =¿

7
CC t – contributions collected for the social security budgets, year t, relative to GDP Em. Pop. –
total employed population, in year t Avg.Wage. – average wage, in year t, relative to GDP
SSTaxRate – the tax rate for social security contributions, in year t, determined analyticall

However, some of the model's flaws are plain to see and have the potential to degrade its
precision and predictability. In the first place, because we used the average pay as a proxy for the
tax base and the number of employees as a proxy for all contributions, we exclude some groups
of people, such as those who work seasonal jobs or in liberal professions. They do, however,
balance themselves out in terms of revenue, bringing the total outcome closer to the effective
mean, and we think that their quantity and overall relevance in this specific example is minor.

Second, our model operates under the working assumption that there will not be any significant
economic changes over the analysis period. The dynamic IS-LM model described by Prof. Muisa
Altar (2002) shows that the average level of pension and salary payments is closely related to the
overall economic trend revealed by GDP. As a country's output increases (in direct proportion to
growth in aggregate demand), firms tend to direct more income towards expanding the scale and
scale of their operations, which likewise leads to higher wages. The government also receives
more money through taxes and may spend more on pensions, which is generally a need in
developed countries (Denis, 2022).

Although it is controversial whether GDP can change over time, especially in the case of
emerging countries such as Brazil and China, we believe that there will not be any major changes
in the next few decades. The British Empire lasted for centuries (until the revolutions of this
century), the United States established its hegemony in the 20th century, and even Japan was
able to maintain a high growth rate for over 30 years (from the 1950s to the 1980s) despite
experiencing a severe economic crash in the 1980s. From a historical perspective, it usually takes
centuries for most countries to stabilize after a period of growth. These factors allow us to
predict that GDP will remain relatively stable over time and, as a result, that average income and
average pension payments will also remain stable. Given these elements, we can assume that
GDP, and thus the average wage level and the average pension paid, are more or less constant
over at least a 15-year period, as is the case with the present analysis (Chen , et al, 2022).

2.4 Decline in fertility and improvements in life expectancy

8
One of the natural consequences of changing mortality and fertility rates in Jordan is population
increase. Changing demographics are also affected by international migration. In fact, declining
fertility is the primary driver of population aging. When combined with rising longevity, these
two factors drive significant changes in the age distribution of the population, with the
proportion of children declining and the proportion of the elderly continuing to rise (United
Nations, 2017).

According to the statistics in Figure 1, the total fertility rate (TFR) in Jordan has declined
significantly over the past century, declining by 50% from 7.38 births per woman in the period
from 1975 to 1985 to 3.60 births per woman in the period from 2010 to 2015. (National Council
For Family Affairs(NCFA), 2009)

Figure (1)
Fertility Rate and life expectancy trends in Jordan from 2010-2015

Source:

(World Population Aging: 1950-2050, 2002), (Statistics D.O., 1977), (Statistics D.o., JFFHS
1983, 1983), (Statistics D.o., JPFHS 1997, 1998), (Statistics D.o., JPFHS 1990, 1992), (Statistics
D.o., JPFHS 2002, 2003), (Statistics D.o., JPFHS 2007, 2008), (Nations, World Population
Prospects: 2017 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables, 2017).

Demographic impact of ageing, 1950-2050

9
The shifting age composition:

Changing age structure of the population has a wide range of impacts on society as a whole, with
labor supply, savings and human capital particularly affected. The demographic opportunity is
achieved during the demographic transition, when Jordan witnesses a decline in birth rates
corresponding to an increase in life expectancy, according to statistics from the Supreme
Population Council in 2009, which will lead to a decrease in the proportion of the working-age
population to be at its highest levels and the proportion that Dependent on others at its lowest
levels. Exploiting this opportunity will lead to an increase in the workforce, higher GDP (a
measure of economic growth), lower rates of dependence on Jordanians working, and a reduced
burden on the country's resources. In 2030, when fertility reaches its lowest level of 2.1, Jordan
is expected to begin a demographic opportunity that will last for 20 years. After that, our
demographic transition is expected to continue into the next phase, during which the young and
working-age groups will reach retirement age and the dependency ratio will rise again
(Ageing:1950-2050, 2002).

Jordanian population pyramids are shown in Figure 2, according to information from the
Department of Statistics.
1950

10
Age-related population indicators:

The number of people aged 60 or over per 100 children under 15 is used to calculate the aging
index. From 16.3 per 100 people in 1950 to 17.8 per 100 in 2015, the ratio of adults 60 and over
to children under 15 has increased only slightly over the past 50 years, but by 2050, it is expected
to quadruple, to 69.1. In comparison, there will be 101 adults aged 60 or older for every 100
children aged 0-14 globally in 2050, much higher than that projected for Jordan (Population and
Housing Census, 2015).

In contrast, the median age of a population is the age at which it is divided into two groups of
equal size, with half the population being younger than that age and the other half being older.
The average age of Jordan's population has risen slightly over the past 50 years, from about 17
years in 1950 to nearly 19 years in 2000. The rise will be about 13 years over the next 50 years.
According to projections, more than half of Jordan's population will be older than 32 years in
2050. This is younger than the global average life expectancy of more than 36 years. In addition,
it is younger than the average age in less developed countries (Department of Statistics, 2012).

The number of people aged 20 to 64 per person aged 65 or over is the expected support ratio. It
is another way of illustrating the numerical correlation between individuals who are more likely
to be economically productive and those who are more likely to be dependent. Over the next 50
years, there will be a global decline of more than 50% in the ratio of workers to retirees.
According to projections, there will be 4.1 employees for every person aged 65 or over by 2050,
ranging from 2.2 in more developed regions to 10.2 in less developed countries. Jordan is no
different from the rest of the world in that by 2050, the potential support ratio is expected to
decline significantly to 5.7, with political and budgetary implications (Kamel, A. M, 2016).

One indicator of the extent of pressure families are under to care for their older members is the
ratio of parent-child support. The elders are linked to their alleged descendants, who are believed
to have been born while the elders were in their twenties and thirties. In other words, the number

11
of people over the age of 85 is calculated for every 100 people between the ages of 50 and 64.
The parental support ratio should only be used as a rough indicator of the adjustments that should
be made to the family support system, however, since individuals in the numerator and
individuals in the denominator are not always related to family ties (Population and Housing
Census, 2015).

By 2050, parent-child support is expected to rise globally, most in rich countries and to a lesser
extent in less developed countries. In 2000, the global ratio was 4 per 100, and by 2050, it is
expected to quadruple (Gharaibeh, I, 2003).

In Jordan, this percentage has increased slightly during this century and will remain lower than

expected in less developed regions of the world. Tables 4 to 7 summarize the above-mentioned

aging indicators in Jordan (Alsaleh, 2002).

2.5 Characteristic features of the ageing population, 1950-2050

Population of elderly People aging:

12
The demographics of the elderly population are changing as their numbers and relative

proportions rise. Regardless of their geographic location or developmental stage, older

populations in all countries are experiencing higher growth in the 80+ age group than in any

younger age group. Table 3 and Figures 2 and 3 show that the population growth rate in Jordan

has declined over the past century, and is expected to decline further to 1% per year between

2045 and 2050. of 60, primarily those in the over-80 age group are growing more rapidly than

this decline. According to projections, the number of elderly people will increase significantly,

rising from 18 thousand in 2000 to 255 thousand in 2050, or 8% and 14% of the total elderly

population, respectively (Figure 3). It is worth noting that the percentage of very elderly people

in Jordan is still low, at 0.6% of the total population, compared to the industrialized world, where

3% of the population is over eighty years old (UNDP, 2013).

Figure (3)
Ageing Index

There is not enough information about the number of centenarians in Jordan. However, the

United Nations Ministry of Economy and Social Affairs reported that there were 0.1 thousand of

them in 2000, with 0.8 thousand representing the expected amount in 2050. It goes without

saying that the most developed parts of the globe, which have a very high percentage of

centenarians, they are home to the vast majority of centenarians (more than 75%). Only a small

portion resides in less developed countries (Population and Housing Census, 2015).

13
Feminization of aging:

Women make up a large majority of the elderly as they live longer than men. In Jordan, the sex

ratio has decreased over the past century from 122 for the elderly (80+) and 115 for those over

60 to 103 and 91, respectively. According to the latest census conducted by the Department of

Statistics, men now outnumber women in the age group 60 years and above by 2 to 100 (sex

ratio = 102.16); However, the sex ratio drops to 95.8 in the age group of 80 years and above.

According to expected changes over the next few decades, the sex ratio of the 60+ age group will

be 97 in 2025 and 93 in 2050, respectively. The adjustments are more pronounced for the

elderly, as the expected percentage will be 81 and 76 in 2025 and 2050, respectively (Awad ,

2016).

In terms of global gender disparities, sex ratios at older ages are much lower in more developed

countries than in less developed parts, as a result of huge differences in life expectancy between

the sexes, which translate into very low sex ratios among older people. Population in more

developed areas. For example, it is expected that by 2050, there will be 61 males for every 100

women in the world aged 80 and 85 years or older, respectively (Zureiqat, 2015).

2.6 Spatial dimension: the rural-urban differences:

Historically, migration and rural-to-urban movement helped Jordanian cities expand rapidly.

Urban expansion in Jordan has also been affected by the current international crises in Syria and

Iraq. The proportion of the population living in urban areas increased by 13% between 1979 and

1994, reaching 83% in 2004 and 90.3% in 2016, according to the latest statistics of the

14
Department of General Statistics. The urbanization rate among Jordanian elderly rose from 44%

in 1961 to 55% in 1979 and then to 80% in 2004 (National Zakat Fund, 2012).

Positive side of ageing:

It is a universal truth that respect for those who have reached old age is dictated by the cultures,

traditions and religious norms of every society where family caregiving is highly valued. The

situation is no different in Jordan because there is an implicit system of obligations and duties,

and family assistance across generations often goes in both directions. Older people often help

their younger relatives financially and domestically, even with childcare. On the other hand,

daughters or daughters-in-law are often explicitly and implicitly assigned responsibilities for

daily caregiving and hands-on training (NCFA, 2013).

Elder parents are seen as a source of knowledge and leadership and are responsible for

maintaining traditions and rituals. In light of the growing number of working mothers, with 22%

to 33% of women aged 25 to 45 being economically involved, their involvement in raising

grandchildren is particularly crucial (Performance , 2015).

There is a scarcity of research on family dynamics and structure in Jordan; However,

unpublished master's theses discussing and analyzing the living arrangements of older people

provide more information. In (Gharaibeh, 2003) conducted a study of 312 senior citizens living

in the community in Amman. His findings revealed that the majority of participants had a

positive attitude and were satisfied with their work as family counselors. In addition, the majority

of research participants reported receiving pension coverage and providing financial assistance to

their families. They defined their relationship with their extended family as one of cooperation,

15
understanding, and support for each other. It has also been shown that those who live with their

families experience self-pleasure more frequently.

In 2002, (Alsaleh, 2002) conducted 850 interviews with senior citizens in Zarqa and Amman.

Seventy-six percent of participants were happy with the help and support they received from

their families, and the same number showed respect for the elderly at home as they spent most of

their time with their relatives. it stated that cleaning and assistance with transportation during

doctor visits are the two necessities that elderly people often receive from their relatives.

Although more recent, structured data on older people's satisfaction levels are needed to better

understand their social responsibilities, these findings highlight the benefits of aging as observed

in Jordanian society (Higher Health Council, 2015).

Implications of population ageing:

Population aging is an inevitable global demographic trend that has major implications for

economies, social structures and aspirations in both personal and professional spheres. The

following discussion of these areas focuses specifically on how they apply to Jordanians ( Darzi

& Islam, 2022).

Income security and poverty:

Worldwide, more than half of older people lack stable income, and this number could reach 1.2

billion by 2050 (WHO, 2014).

Studies in Jordan revealed that the elderly is more susceptible to illness or disability. They are

likely to become increasingly destitute as they grow older. According to the Household Energy

and Expenditure Data (HEIS), having a large number of children, not having a high level of

16
education, being unemployed, and not being a Jordanian citizen, all increase the likelihood of

living in poverty (Zureiqat, 2015).

The National Agenda 2006-2015, which implemented Jordan's basic strategic development

directions through the National Employment Strategy (2011-2020) and the Poverty Reduction

Strategy 2013-2020, was Jordan's second "poverty solution" government "State Strategy" after

first adopting it in 2002. Overall, this reduced the absolute poverty rate of the population from

21.3% in 1997 to 14.2% in 2002 and then to 13% in 2006. It should be emphasized that a new

calculation technique was used to determine the 2010 poverty rate at 14.4%. It is also not

appropriate to compare it with previous numbers ( Darzi & Islam, 2022).

Unpublished figures from the World Bank Atlas of Social Protection Indicators of Resilience

and Equity (ASPIRE) indicate that 4.6% of Jordan's elderly population were living in poverty in

2006, while more recent Department of Statistics data indicate that this number rose to 6.6% in

2010. The situation is exacerbated by unemployment since 2.9% Only Jordanians' labor force

was made up of those over 60 years of age in 2015; Older men constitute 3.6% of the male

workforce compared to 1.1% of older women (National Council for Family Affairs, Analytical

Report on Evaluation of the Jordanian National Strategy for the Elderly 2009-2015) (Halaseh,

2021).

The fact that Jordan has low average wages, high prices for a variety of goods and services, and

low GDP as a result of the recent global economic crisis, has increased the need for and pressure

on Jordan's social security systems to help them. Those who suffer from want and poverty.

Following the massive influx of Syrian migrants over the past three years, these difficulties have

become considerably worse (MAHASNEH, 2000).

17
Social protection systems in the Arab world are underdeveloped and mostly apply only to those

who work in the government, the armed forces, or the formally organized private sector. In

Jordan, drivers are primarily governmental and include (Tkiyet Um Ali ((Food for Life), the

National Aid Fund (NAF), and the National Zakat Fund (NZF), as well as the Social Security

Corporation (SSC) systems, civil and military pensions, and union pensions. Professionalism, the

Ministry of Social Development, and some other institutions and campaigns. Private and non-

governmental engines such as MetLife Alico and Al-Nisr Al-Arabi Insurance Company are not

developed (Higher Health Council, 2015).

The Ministry of Social Development oversees a variety of social assistance programs and

services for the disadvantaged, the disabled, the unemployed, the elderly, and other vulnerable

populations. For senior citizens who must be institutionalized but cannot afford it, nursing home

beds are “purchased.” It also uses an emergency cash transfer program similar to the activities of

the National Aid Fund (NAF). This program may waste effort as it is not connected to the NAF

help database (Hayajneh, 2015).

The Social Security Corporation has emerged as one of the main forces supporting Jordanians

who receive social assistance in large numbers, especially the elderly, the sick, and the

unemployed. To help those receiving benefits who are below the poverty level, especially those

who are working (Higher Health Council, 2015).

One of the oldest funds in the region is the National Zakat Fund of Jordan. It is affiliated with the

Ministry of Endowments and consists of 210 volunteer zakat committees across the country and

the National Zakat Fund, headquartered in Amman. Cash support, cash assistance to orphans,

miscellaneous payments in kind, programmers. A poor person or family is not eligible for the

minimum zakat support, which ranges from 30 to 50 Jordanian dinars (40 to 70 US dollars) per

18
month, if they receive periodic financial assistance from the National Aid Fund (UNESCWA,

2017).

In order to make the Social Security Corporation the primary and exclusive organization

providing retirement benefits, successive administrations have made several amendments to

social security legislation. The problem many retirees face is that they must (with help from their

employer) pay for Social Security for 15 years, which entails making 180 payments, before they

can receive a pension at age 60 for men and 55 for women. If they are unable to pay the full

amount of these payments, they may “buy them out” in advance. Table 4 shows that 25% of

seniors lack access to retirement benefits. Additionally, 66% of pensioners receive retirement

benefits below the federal poverty level. To protect older people in need, especially those who

are unemployed and unable to “buy out” pensions, these strict regulations must be reviewed.

Since only 2.4% of older adults and 0.3% of older women were working in 2013, laws should

continue to put older people in jobs they can do.

Figure (4)
Pension protection for senior Jordanians

Source:
(SSC: Social Security Corporation. (National Council for Family Affairs, Analytical Report
to Evaluate the Jordanian National Strategy for the Elderly (2009-2013)).

19
In order to achieve a more equitable distribution of beneficiaries and prevent duplication,

cooperation is also needed between social security organizations such as the Ministry of Social

Development, the National Aid Fund, as well as other charities. However, long-term projections

suggest that Provinces in the South will run cash deficits by 2053, which is worrying. It is

necessary to implement strategies to reduce or even reduce the effects of this imbalance because

it puts the social security of Jordanian elderly at risk (MAHASNEH, 2000).

In summary, even though Jordan spends more on public social protection than the majority of Ar

ab nations do on pensions and other benefits for the elderly, the social protection system still nee

ds significant reforms to ensure that it covers all recipients as a right, including women and older

people living in rural areas.

Services for health and rising disability:

Jordan has one of the best health systems in the Middle East, as a result of a number of

successful development plans and initiatives that focus on health as a critical component of

sustainable development. In Common sense dictates that proposed health plans will be effective

if they can be shown to place a high priority on increasing access to health care, improving the

standard of treatment, and managing costs. Demand for health services has increased as a result

of steady population growth, the influx of refugees, changing demographics due to an increasing

proportion of older citizens, and an increase in non-communicable diseases as a result. These are

just a few of the biggest challenges facing the healthcare system in Jordan. In light of the

difficult economic climate, it is also important to consider increasing health care expenditures

(Ajlouni, 2015).

Despite these difficulties, the general government spends US$359 per person on health, or 13.7%

of total government spending, representing a total of US$359 per person. In addition, 70% of all

20
health expenses are paid by the general government. Among the countries of the Middle East and

North Africa, this government's share of health spending is one of the largest (Schröder-Butterfill

& Marianti, R, 2006).

The Ministry of Health, Royal Medical Services, University Hospitals (King Abdullah

University Hospital and University of Jordan Hospital), and the Center for Diabetes,

Endocrinology and Genetics are some of the organizations that provide health services. Besides

hundreds of private clinics, the private sector also includes private hospitals, diagnostic centers

and treatment facilities. Through UNRWA clinics, UNHCR, the King Hussein Cancer Center,

and clinics run by humanitarian organizations, the international and non-profit sectors provide

services. The Royal Medical Services is the second largest supplier of medical services after the

Ministry of Health (MOH). The Ministry of Health's Civil Insurance Program (CIP) is a required

service that covers all government employees (and their dependents), as well as individuals

receiving National Aid Fund benefits. In contrast, private healthcare and self-insured companies

or private insurance companies offer private health insurance (Nations, 2017).

at exchange for a minor minimal fee from each recipient (six dinars per month/8.4$), the CIP has

been expanded to cover uninsured individuals aged sixty and over at public hospitals and

institutions. With a rate of coverage increasing from 67.3% in 2010 to 73.3% in 2015, these

initiatives have assisted in extending insurance coverage to more seniors from all socioeconomic

levels, including those who are financially secure (Higher Health Council, 2015).

For example, the SSC Law was changed in 2014 to include health insurance for all SSC

beneficiaries. Despite these modifications, tests conducted by SSC showed that enrolling in

health insurance for SSC services would result in a 17% reduction in the beneficiary's income. It

is important to keep in mind that healthcare services are not equally accessible to all people, with

21
people in the North of the Kingdom generally having more options than people in the South.

People living in urban rather than rural areas are also subject to the same hypothesis. (ILO,

2014).

There are not many studies that specifically analyze the health of older people in Jordan, and

those that rely on national and international health surveys, which look at the population as a

whole and not older people as the primary research topic to fill this research gap. According to

the results of a study conducted (Gharaibeh, 2003) , older age was strongly associated with poor

health, which was associated with more frequent use of health services. In addition, the survey

revealed that 86% of the sample had experienced at least one medical problem in the year prior

to the study. In addition, older adults felt that they did not receive appropriate attention for a

number of their health problems. The results also showed that women often face greater social

and health problems than men.

Furthermore, a survey conducted by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Jordanian

Ministry of Health in 2000 revealed that only 10.5% of the sample believed their health was

good, compared to 26% who said it was poor. More than a quarter of the sample had an illness or

injury that limited their ability to perform activities of daily living. It is interesting to note that

75% of the sample reported feeling lonely, anxious, depressed, and having difficulty sleeping, in

addition to being constantly exhausted. Another important finding is that 19% of people said

they currently cannot access health care due to a health problem, with the high cost of care cited

as the main deterrent. It is also important to note that 19% of people feel they cannot get

treatment for a current health problem, and the main barriers to care were cost (70.1%), lack of

insurance (14.3%), perception of substandard medical care (7.8%), and lack of Treatment

(7.8%).

22
Given the relatively high rates of chronic diseases and disabilities, it is crucial to prevent and

properly manage complications from these diseases to avoid the development of disabilities,

which affect 7.4% of older adults on average. Given the lack of public and private insurance

coverage, as well as the high cost of these services even if available, additional funding is

necessary to develop and improve primary health care services as well as specialized home care

services (Chen , Luo, He, Zhao, & Pan, 2022).

Fortunately, the Ministry of Health has established protocols for treating some chronic diseases

and has written a guide for elderly families on how to deal with them. In addition, the Ministry of

Health provides training to healthcare professionals on proper health habits and how to deal with

the elderly. These initiatives seem hopeful, but they fail tragically because they neglect social

care and participation in physical activities, which, along with preventive services, form the basis

of successful interventions aimed at improving the health of older people. Most importantly, the

process of providing more specialized, coordinated, and complete health care to older adults is

hampered by the lack of well-established geriatric training programs accredited and licensed by

the Jordanian Medical Council. Since geriatricians are the primary doctors who identify the

medical, social, physical and psychological needs of the elderly and coordinate their care plans,

it is very important to note that the lack of formal training programs in the field of geriatrics that

have been approved and licensed by the Jordanian Medical Council hinders the process of

providing the best specialized and coordinated health care. And the comprehensiveness that

senior citizens deserve (Petropoulos, et al., 2022).

The Supreme Council of Health, in cooperation with the World Health Organization and with

contributions from all Jordanian health sectors, developed the national strategy for the health

sector in the period 2015-2019, which summarizes the situation of the sector. The strategy

23
reached the conclusion that there are many issues facing the elderly in Jordan that should be

taken into consideration through strategic plans to maintain a respectable quality of life for the

elderly by examining the socio-economic and health status of the Jordanian population. Financial

difficulties, the spread of disabilities and chronic diseases, the lack of specialized home care

service providers, the lack of a legal framework to protect them, the high cost of these services if

they are not available, in addition to their lack of coverage in public and private health insurance

programs are some of these challenges. The shortage of geriatricians in medicine and nursing is

also an important problem because most of the few geriatricians in the country received their

training abroad and are not certified by the Jordanian Medical Council or the Jordanian Medical

Association. There are less than 10 of them in the entire country, and they provide hospice care

on an individual basis (Zureiqat, 2015).

2.7 Arrangements for housing and family assistance:

Due to the underdeveloped social protection services in the region, families in the region are

mostly responsible for caring for elderly individuals. Children are expected to care for their

elderly parents as part of Jordanian culture and religion, and it is unacceptable to allow them to

live alone. The expansion of housing for the elderly and the institutionalization of care for the

elderly at the national level, as well as in the Arab world, is hampered by these traditional values

(Awad , 2016).

Despite social expectations, only 16.7% (324.4 thousand) of Jordan's total 1,941.9 thousand

households are headed by adults over the age of 60, according to the latest Ministry of Foreign

Affairs census. Among them, 26.5% were females and 73.5% were males (Petropoulos, et al.,

2022).

24
Only 6.7% of the 420 community seniors (Alsaleh, 2002) studied in 2000 who lived in Amman

were single. Additionally, elderly people who need long-term care depended solely on their

family for support and opposed the concept of entering a nursing facility. The handful who

recognized the need for this degree of care had major physical impairments or were abandoned

by their kids. However, Haifa Ahmad Al Saleh demonstrated in her unpublished master's thesis

from 2002 that half of the research sample of senior citizens from Amman and the Governorate

of Zarqa chose to be institutionalized in order to relieve their children's financial and physical

burdens.

90% of residents were single (never married, widowed, or separated) at the time of their

admission to a nursing home, according to fascinating 2009 research of 137 institutionalized

elderly people representing all nursing facilities in Jordan. The majority of seniors - 2/3 - did not

have adult children residing in the country. This study shows the changing social and economic

conditions of Jordanian families, as the number of children per family decreased, and some

elderly people began to manage their affairs on their own, as they used to live close to their

parents but now they work under certain conditions. (National Council For Family

Affairs(NCFA), 2009).

As a result of these obstacles, there are only ten accredited homes for the elderly in Jordan,

which do not adequately serve all governorates, especially southern Jordan. This presents a

challenge for older people, especially those who are infirm and require a high degree of care. In

addition, the majority of these lodges are run either privately or by volunteers. Fortunately, the

government covers accommodation costs for elderly people in need, patients, or those who

cannot care for themselves through the Ministry of Social Development. Despite this government

assistance, the occupancy rate of these nursing facilities rarely exceeds 50% of their maximum

25
capacity since the financial assistance provided by the government is lower than the true cost of

living (Ajlouni, 2015).

2.8 Older people's vulnerability, especially that of older women:

Social policy should prioritize identifying vulnerable older people and understanding the factors

that contribute to and influence their vulnerability. The combination of being threatened and not

having the resources or defenses to deal with that threat leads to vulnerability. Low levels of

education and employment, inadequate pension coverage, especially for workers in the informal

sector, restricted participation in the economy, limited access to the credit market, and

inadequate financial security are all common risks that are particularly harmful to older people.

The people. Due to high rates of illiteracy, increased economic dependence, and increased

exposure to non-communicable diseases, women, who constitute the majority of older persons,

are particularly vulnerable (Hayajneh, 2015).

The latest census conducted by the Department of Statistics revealed that 53.5% of older women

and only 9.4% of older males were single. Locally conducted studies highlight the various threats

faced by older women living alone in Jordan, including unmet financial, social and emotional

demands. Furthermore, illiterate women constitute 48.5% of all illiterate older men in Jordan,

compared to 17.9% of illiterate older males. To make matters more difficult, older women over

60 had a higher prevalence of at least one functional disability than older males (117.2K = 52.2%

vs. 107.3K = 47.8%, respectively) (Zureiqat, 2015).

Additional pertinent implications:

It is necessary to take action because senior Jordanians do not participate in the economic and

political spheres. As we mentioned previously, the retirement age in Jordan is 60 for men and 55

26
for women. Accordingly, retirees are “young” older individuals who are usually able to work

because they are still in good physical, emotional and mental health. Surprisingly, 14.7% of

unemployed seniors are looking for work, while only 12.8% of seniors are still working. In

addition, once a senior receives a payment from their pension, it is against the law for them to

work again. Despite the fact that they are still able to be active and contributing members of

society, these regulations force a large portion of older retirees to spend their days bored at

home. Only 11.02% of individuals who participated in the last parliamentary elections in 2013

were over 60, according to data from the Independent Electoral Commission. Although there

were 52% more senior members of the Cabinet in 2013 (compared to 25%), there was a 78%

reduction in the number of senior members in the upper house of Parliament. The lack of

appropriate recreational services for seniors is a major problem that must be addressed. In his

master's thesis, (Gharaibeh, 2003) explained that boredom is one of the biggest problems that

older people face. The most important reasons people chose to institutionalize were

entertainment and social contacts, as well as cultural and community concerns. It is worth noting

that the Jordanian Ministry of Social Development has established age-friendly rules and

relatively reasonable costs for opening day centers for the elderly. Despite this support, the

Kingdom has only three non-governmental facilities providing care for 140 elderly people. In

addition to the lack of an inspection and monitoring role for the Ministry of Social Development,

which instead sets laws and standards to approve the establishment of new homes for the elderly,

the relatively high membership costs make it extremely unlikely for someone of middle age to

join them (Rawajfah, K. K, 2009)

2.9 Business Data Analysis (BA)

27
Any organization must improve its business procedures. Process improvement's first

fundamental stage is analysis. The process data must first be collected and organized before

being analyzed. This is significant because, in contemporary firms, the execution of process steps

leaves temporary or permanent traces in numerous systems and organizations. Using extract,

transform, and load (ETL) tools, process data may be gathered into a data warehouse, where it

can then be sliced and diced along many dimensions using an OLAP tool. The technique of data

warehousing provides intriguing difficulties in this situation (IBM Cloud Education , 2021):

 Developing custom, process-specific solutions for data storage and reporting is not a

viable outsourcing model.

 Data extraction process: The normal procedure performed in an IT system is quite

comprehensive and consists of a number of stages, including manual activities (such as

scanning invoices), database transactions, and application calls.

 Data Evolution: Because a business process automation/analysis application is co-

developed, changes in data sources and even reporting needs occur frequently during the

development process.

A strategy must be in place to limit the effects of changes, and it must be possible to change and

retest ETL (Extract, Transform, Load) procedures, warehouse model, and reports in the context

of business processes. A conceptual model of process data storage was presented by Casati et al.

In order to overcome these problems. Specifically, they demonstrated a flexible warehouse

model that can meet the complex reporting requirements of practically any process while also

taking performance constraints into account. The model addresses important recurring issues,

including the trade-off between the necessity of describing heterogeneity (each process is

28
unique) and the necessity of creating a consistent representation of all processes (to facilitate

reuse and analysis across processes) (Dhaouadi & Bousselmi, 2022).

Users must have a mechanism to represent abstractions in order to facilitate the storage of

business process data. This will help understand high-level processes and also describe how

progress in these processes aligns with key IT events. In addition, an ETL method is required to

populate the warehouse with abstract process execution data based on abstract process

specifications and events occurring on different systems. Abstract process modeling should

include the following to meet these requirements (Theodorou, et al, 2015):

1. a description of the process flow.

2. describe how the extracted business data for each process is populated and maintained.

3. link the beginning and end of each step to changes to the abstract business data.

4. linking steps to human or automated actions.

It is important to first extract data from the various event log databases into the destination tables

of the staging area before populating the process data warehouse. Data services are crucial for

capturing process-related data in the operations domain. The following sections define data

services and explain how they provide an environment for simulating events and data to aid in

testing and prototyping. Once the process is started, each step connects to a data service and is

assigned to a web service to generate data for execution (Business Intelligence , 2013).

Data Services:

Data services are critical components of enterprise SOA designs [102, 103, 207, 402]. When an

organization wants to securely share data with its business partners over the Internet, such as

structured data such as relational tables, semi-structured data such as XML documents, and

29
unstructured data such as business data from online business sources, it can use data services to

provide mechanisms to identify which data It can be accessed, what the data semantics are, and

how data from different organizations can be integrated. Data services, in particular, are

“software components that address these issues by providing rich metadata, expressive

languages, and APIs for service consumers to send queries and receive data from service

providers” (Tulenan & Lumban, 2010).

A web service, or a means for two electronic devices to communicate over the web, can be

customized as a data service to encapsulate a variety of data-centric operations. In order to use or

combine entities returned by different data services, these operations must provide a semantically

richer representation of their underlying data. One of several commercial frameworks that can be

used to achieve this goal is Microsoft's WCF Data Services Framework, which enables the

creation and consumption of OData services for the web, and Oracle's ODSI2, which offers a

wide range of data services designed to optimize data access from different data sources for a

wide range of customers (Saleh, 2012).

In this situation, SOA applications often need to call a service to get the data they need, act

locally on that data, and then alert the service of any modifications they want to make. The

context of data services therefore requires standards activity. By defining client-side

programming models, such as those for operating on data obtained from a data service and

serialized XML objects, and their modifications in transferring them to a data service,

Collaboration Open Service Data Objects (SDO), for example, satisfies these demands.

Specifically, data use is limited by a number of restrictions imposed by data owners, and data

users must be able to locate and select relevant data services as well as utilize the data “as a

service” (Kröger, Heinrichs, & Decker, 2022).

30
The idea behind data as a service, or DaaS, is that a user can get the data they need when they

need it, regardless of the geographic or organizational distance between supplier and consumer.

Data services are specifically designed to integrate a set of data sources and enable their service.

In order to leverage and combine data from two or more sources to build new services, these

services can be used in mashups or web applications that are produced starting from contents and

services that can be accessed over the Internet. Data services in particular will be crucial to

developing, building and managing SOA applications. For example, Oracle's ODSI facilitates the

development and deployment of networks of connected data services that resemble data spaces

(Saikia, 2021).

Data services can be used to simplify the process of setting up data integration systems and

upgrading them on a “pay-as-you-go” basis as needed. In this case, semantic integration is

necessary before any services can be provided via data integration methodologies. It is critical

because there is no single schema that all process data adheres to and because process data is

spread across many systems and data sources. To address this challenge, Dataspaces has

provided solutions to some of the issues with data integration systems, as well as ways to

increase data awareness and alleviate concerns about maintaining long-term data availability in

warehouses (Saikia, 2021).

31
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