Stevenson 2021

You might also like

Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 15

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN

HAPPINESS AND GDP


PER CAPITA GROWTH

KIRA STEVENSON

1
2
0
2

ELI SCHWARTZ
AWARD WINNER
BEST SUPERVISED
PAPER


.LUD6WHYHQVRQ
%6(FRQRPLFVµ8*
$KPHG5DKPDQ

5HODWLRQVKLS%HWZHHQ+DSSLQHVVDQG*'3SHU&DSLWD *URZWK

$EVWUDFW

*URVV'RPHVWLF3URGXFW *'3 LVRIWHQWKHVWDQGDUG XVHGWRPHDVXUHJURZWKLQD

FRXQWU\6RPHSDVWDVVXPSWLRQVDOVRVXJJHVWWKDWDV *'3SHUFDSLWDJURZVVRGRHVKDSSLQHVVLQ

DFRXQWU\+RZHYHUWKHUHDUHFHUWDLQRXWOLHUVWKDW VXJJHVWWKLVPD\QRWDOZD\VEHWKHFDVH,Q

RUGHUWRLQYHVWLJDWHWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQKDSSLQHVV DQG*'3,FRQGXFWHGDWZRVWDJH

UHJUHVVLRQDSSURDFKWRPHDVXUHWKHHIIHFWRIH[FHVV KDSSLQHVVRQJURZWK([FHVVKDSSLQHVVZDV

FDSWXUHGE\WKHUHVLGXDOKDSSLQHVVIURPWKHUHJUHVVLRQ RIRQO\KDSSLQHVVRQ*'37KHVHFRQG

VWDJHLQFOXGHGRWKHUYDULDEOHVWKDWDUHLQGLFDWLYH RIJURZWKVXFKDVWKHSHUFHQWDJHRISRSXODWLRQ

WKDWKDVDFFHVVWRWKHLQWHUQHWDQGSUHVHQFHRIDJULFXOWXUH HPSOR\PHQW0\UHVXOWVVXJJHVWWKDW

RQFHDFRXQWU\UHDFKHVDFHUWDLQOHYHORIKDSSLQHVV H[FHVVKDSSLQHVVEH\RQGWKLVWHQGVWR

GDPSHQJURZWK

,QWURGXFWLRQ

:KDWLVWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQKDSSLQHVVDQG*'3" 0DQ\UHVHDUFKHUVKDYHDWWHPSWHG

WRDQVZHUWKLVTXHVWLRQXVLQJGLIIHUHQWPRGHOVKRZHYHU KDYHDOOEHHQPHWZLWKFKDOOHQJHV,WLV

FRPSOLFDWHGWRJHWDFOHDUUHVXOWDVSDVWWUHQGV KDYHVKRZQWKDWLI\RXKDYHPRUHPRQH\\RXDUH

KDSSLHU\HWWKHUHLVDOVRUHVHDUFKGHEDWLQJWKDW 6KRXOGZHUHDOO\H[SHFWKDSSLQHVVLWVHOIWRKHOS

ZLWKLQFRPH",I\RXDUHKDSS\\RXFRXOGVWULYHWR EHKDSSLHUZLWKPRUHLQFRPHRU\RXFRXOGEH

FRQWHQWDQGVWD\WKHVDPH+DSSLQHVVDQGLQFRPHDOVR FUHDWHDQHQGRJHQHLW\SUREOHPEHFDXVH

WKH\LQWHUDFWZLWKRQHDQRWKHU


,QLQYHVWLJDWLQJWKLVUHODWLRQVKLS,KRSHGWRILQGRXWZKHWKHURUQRWH[FHVVKDSSLQHVVLQD

FRXQWU\KDVDGDPSHQLQJHIIHFWRQ*'3SHUFDSLWD PHDVXUHG WKURXJKSXUFKDVLQJSULFHSDULW\ 

DORQJZLWKKRZLWFRPSDUHVWRRWKHU³ZHOOEHLQJ´IDFWRUV VXFKDVILQDQFLDODQGOLIHVDWLVIDFWLRQ

6KRXOGDFRXQWU\ZLWKORZOHYHOVRI*'3SHUFDSLWD KDYHDKLJKHUWKDQH[SHFWHGKDSSLQHVVOHYHO

WKHLUFLWL]HQVFRXOGEHSHUFHLYHGDV³FRQWHQW´ZLWK WKHLUZHOOEHLQJ,QWKLVFDVHZKDWHIIHFW

ZRXOGWKLVKDYHRQWKHLUSRVVLELOLW\IRUJURZWKLI SHRSOHDUHVDWLVILHGZLWKWKHZD\WKHLUOLYHVDUH

QRZ",WLVDOVRLPSRUWDQWWRXQGHUVWDQGZKHWKHURU QRWWKHVHUHVXOWVZLOOSUHGLFWFRQYHUJHQFHRU

GLYHUJHQFHEHWZHHQKDSSLQHVVDQGLQFRPH

7KHUHDUHQXPHURXVVWXGLHVRQWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQ VWDQGDUGKDSSLQHVVOHYHOVDQG

*'3RIDFRXQWU\+RZHYHUP\DSSURDFKORRNVVSHFLILFDOO\ DWH[FHVVKDSSLQHVV¶HIIHFWRQ*'3

FRPELQHGZLWKVRFLDOFDSDELOLWLHV,XVHGDSDQHO GDWDVHWZKLFKPHUJHG:RUOG9DOXH6XUYH\

UHVSRQVHVDQG:RUOG'HYHORSPHQW,QGLFDWRUVGDWDIRU WKURXJK&RPELQLQJWKHVHWZR

GDWDVRXUFHVDOORZHGIRUDKROLVWLFYLHZRIQRWMXVW WKHILVFDOPHDVXUHVRIYDULRXVFRXQWULHVEXW

DOVRVRFLDOPHDVXUHV0\UHVXOWVFRQFOXGHGWKDWFRXQWULHV ZLWKH[FHVVKDSSLQHVVWHQGWRVHHOHVV

IXWXUHJURZWK7KHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQOLIHVDWLVIDFWLRQ RUILQDQFLDOVDWLVIDFWLRQDQG*'3SHU

FDSLWDJURZWKGRQRWKDYHDVFRQYLQFLQJUHVXOWV


/LWHUDWXUH5HYLHZ

3UHYLRXVVWXGLHVGRQHRQHFRQRPLFJURZWKDQGKDSSLQHVV KDYHFRQIOLFWLQJUHVXOWV

³6RFLDO&DSDELOLW\DQG(FRQRPLF*URZWK´ E\-RKQDWKDQ 7HPSOHDQG3DXO-RKQVRQXVHGWKH

LQGH[RIVRFLRHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWE\$GHOPDQDQG 0RUULVWRVWXG\WKHLQWHUDFWLRQRI

HFRQRPLFDQGQRQHFRQRPLFIRUFHVLQWKHFRXUVHRI DFRXQWU\¶VGHYHORSPHQW,QRUGHUWR

FKDUDFWHUL]HVRFLDOGHYHORSPHQW7HPSOHDQG-RKQVRQ IRFXVHGRQLQGLFDWRUVSURYLGLQJDQ

DVVHVVPHQWRIVRFLDODQGSROLWLFDOSDUWLFLSDWLRQ WKHH[WHQWRIPDVVFRPPXQLFDWLRQVWKURXJK

QHZVSDSHUFLUFXODWLRQDORQJZLWKWKHH[WHQWRIVRFLDO PRELOLW\WKURXJKHGXFDWLRQOHYHOV7KLV

GDWDZDVUHSUHVHQWDWLYHRIGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHV EHWZHHQDQG7KH\XVHGD

UHJUHVVLRQRIVRFLDOGHYHORSPHQWRQWKHORJRILQLWLDO LQFRPHWDNLQJWKHUHVLGXDOVWREHDQ

RUWKRJRQDOFRPSRQHQW$VDUHVXOWWKH\IRXQGDVWURQJ FRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQORQJUXQJURZWKDQG

VRFLDOGHYHORSPHQWUHODWLYHWRLQLWLDOLQFRPHSHU FDSLWDZLWKDFRHIILFLHQWRI$GGLWLRQDOO\WKH

LQLWLDOLQFRPHDQGVRFLDOGHYHORSPHQWRIDFRXQWU\ H[SODLQHGRIWKHJURZWKUDWHYDULDWLRQ

JLYLQJWKHEHOLHIWKDWXVLQJVRFLDOGHYHORSPHQWLQGLFDWRUV ZRXOGLPSURYHJURZWKIDFWRUV$Q

HVSHFLDOO\SHUWLQHQWIDFWRUZDVYDULDEOHVPHDVXULQJ WKHOHYHORIFRQQHFWHGQHVVZLWKLQDFRXQWU\

VXFKDVLQWHUQHWFRQQHFWLRQVDQGPRELOHVXEVFULSWLRQV 2YHUDOO7HPSOHDQG-RKQVRQVUHVXOWV

LQGLFDWHWKDWKLJKOHYHOVRIVRFLDOGHYHORSPHQWFRXOG SUHGLFWWKDWFRXQWULHVDUHFRQYHUJLQJWRD

KLJKHUVWHDG\VWDWHOHYHORILQFRPH

$QRWKHUVWXG\GRQHRQWKLVUHODWLRQVKLSLV³+DSSLQHVV DQG*URZWKWKH:RUOG2YHU7LPH

6HULHV(YLGHQFHRQWKH+DSSLQHVV,QFRPH3DUDGR[´ E\ 5LFKDUG(DVWHUOLQDQG/DXUD$QJHOHVFX

7KLVSDSHUUHYLVLWHG(DVWHUOLQ¶VRULJLQDOVWXG\ZKLFK IRXQGWKDWDWDFHUWDLQSRLQWLQWLPH

KDSSLQHVVYDULHVGLUHFWO\ZLWKLQFRPHEXWRYHUWLPH WKLVHIIHFWGRHVQRWVKRZ7KLVWLPHWKH\

LQFOXGHGQRWMXVWGHYHORSHGFRXQWULHVEXWDOVRWKRVH GHYHORSLQJDQGLQWUDQVLWLRQ7KHLU


KDSSLQHVVLQGH[ZDVPHDVXUHGWKURXJKUHVSRQVHVWRWKH:RUOG9DOXH6XUYH\RQOLIHVDWLVIDFWLRQ

:KHQDQDO\VLQJWKHLUGDWDWKURXJKFURVVVHFWLRQDO DQDO\VLVWKH\IRXQGWKDWLIULFKDQGSRRU

FRXQWULHVDUHFRPSDUHGDWWKHVDPHSRLQWLQWLPH OLIHVDWLVIDFWLRQLQFUHDVHVDWDGHFUHDVLQJUDWH

ZLWKWKHDEVROXWHDPRXQWRI*'3SHUFDSLWD:KLOH XVLQJWLPHVHULHVDQDO\VLVUHVXOWVVKRZHG

WKDWIRUDOOFRXQWULHVZKHWKHURUQRWWKH\DUHGHYHORSHG GHYHORSLQJRULQWUDQVLWLRQWKHUHLVQR

VLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHUDWHRILPSURYHPHQW LQOLIHVDWLVIDFWLRQDQGJURZWKUDWHRI

*'3SHUFDSLWD

7KH%HUNHOH\(FRQRPLF5HYLHZSXEOLVKHGDSDSHUWLWOHG ³%H\RQG*'3(FRQRPLFVDQG

+DSSLQHVV´ E\6HWK%HUWROXFFLVXPPDUL]LQJWKHUHVXOWV RIGDWDIURPWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV¶:RUOG

+DSSLQHVV5HSRUW%HUWROXFFLDUJXHVWKDWDQLPSRUWDQW IDFWRULQWKHKDSSLQHVVYV*'3GHEDWHLV

KRZDFRXQWU\¶VZHDOWKJHWVVSHQW+LVGDWDUHVXOWHG LQDFKDQJHLQ*'3SHUFDSLWD

FRUUHODWLQJZLWKDXQLWFKDQJHLQKDSSLQHVV+RZHYHU ZKHQRWKHUYDULDEOHVVXFKDVVRFLDO

VXSSRUWDQGIUHHGRPIURPFRUUXSWLRQDUHLQFOXGHGWKLV PRGHOH[SODLQVRIWKHYDULDQFHLQ

KDSSLQHVV7KHYDULDELOLW\LQKDSSLQHVVIRUFRXQWULHV LVODUJHO\GXHWRWKHVHRWKHUIDFWRUV

VXJJHVWLQJWKDWWKHUHDUHGHFUHDVLQJUHWXUQVWRKXPDQ FRQWHQWPHQWZKHQ*'3SHUFDSLWD

LQFUHDVHVEXWKRZLWLVVSHQWGRHVQRWFKDQJH:KLOH WKLVLVMXVWWKHRSLQLRQRIWKHDXWKRU,

EHOLHYHLWLVDUHDVRQDEOHH[SODQDWLRQ

7KHILQDOSDSHU,ZLOOFRYHULV³:KHQ(FRQRPLF*URZWK 'RHVQ¶W0DNH&RXQWULHV

+DSSLHU´ E\6HOLQ.HVHELUDQG6KLJHKLUR2LVKL7KH\ VRXJKWWRGHWHUPLQHZKHWKHURUQRW

LQFRPHLQHTXDOLW\FDQH[SODLQWKHGLVFUHSDQFLHVLQ DQVZHULQJZKHWKHURUQRWHFRQRPLFJURZWK

LQFUHDVHVKDSSLQHVV7KHILUVWPRWLYDWLRQIRULQHTXDOLW\ DVDZD\WRH[SODLQWKHGLIIHUHQWUHVXOWVLV

WKDWLQHTXDOLW\KDVEHHQFRQQHFWHGZLWKUHGXFWLRQV LQWUXVWDQGIHHOLQJVRIIDLUQHVVZKLFKDUH

SUHGLFWRUVRIKDSSLQHVV7KHVHFRQGLVWKDWLQFRPH LQHTXDOLW\LVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKOHVVVRFLDO


PRELOLW\DQGLQFUHDVHGFULPHZKLFKFDQLQFUHDVHVWUHVV7RWHVWWKLVWKHRU\WKH\ORRNHGDW

SDWWHUQVRILQHTXDOLW\KDSSLQHVVDQG*'3SHUFDSLWD IURPFRXQWULHVVSOLWLQWRGHYHORSHGDQG

XQGHUGHYHORSHG7KHLUUHVXOWVVKRZHGWKDWLQERWK FODVVLILFDWLRQVRIFRXQWULHVLQFRPHLQHTXDOLW\

ZDVFRUUHODWHGZLWKGHFUHDVHGKDSSLQHVVDIWHUFRQWUROOLQJ IRU*'3,QHTXDOLW\DOVRZDVIRXQGWR

PLWLJDWHWKHSRVLWLYHHIIHFWRIDFRXQWU\¶VGHYHORSPHQW RQKDSSLQHVV(VSHFLDOO\SHUWLQHQWZDV

WKHUHVXOWVVSHFLILFDOO\IURPWKHORZLQFRPHFRXQWULHV ZKHUHLQFRPHJURZWKZDVGHWULPHQWDOWR

KDSSLQHVVDQGLQHTXDOLW\FRQWULEXWLQJWRWKLVQHJDWLYH HIIHFWDQDVSHFWRIWKH(DVWHUOLQ3DUDGR[

0RGHODQG'DWD

0\GDWDFRQVLVWVRIHFRQRPLFDQGVRFLDOLQGLFDWRUV IRUFRXQWULHVIURPWKURXJK

7KHFRQVWUXFWLRQRIWKLVGDWDVHWLQFOXGHGPHUJLQJ :RUOG'HYHORSPHQW,QGLFDWRUV :',

YDULDEOHVZLWK:RUOG9DOXH6XUYH\UHVSRQVHV7KH:RUOG 'HYHORSPHQW,QGLFDWRUVLVFRPSLOHG

IURPWKH:RUOG%DQNZKLFKJDWKHUVVWDWLVWLFVIURP RIILFLDOO\UHFRJQL]HGLQWHUQDWLRQDOVRXUFHV,W

LQFOXGHVLQIRUPDWLRQRQWKHILQDQFLDOVWDWXVRID FRXQWU\DORQJZLWKVWDWLVWLFVRQFRQFUHWHVRFLDO

FDSDELOLW\LQGLFDWRUVVXFKDVWKHSHUFHQWDJHRIWKRVH ZKRREWDLQVHFRQGDU\HGXFDWLRQWKH

SHUFHQWDJHRIODERUIRUFHZRUNLQJLQDJULFXOWXUH DORQJZLWKWKHSHUFHQWDJHRIWKHSRSXODWLRQWKDW

KDVDFFHVVWRWKHLQWHUQHW,VVXHVZLWKLQWKLVVXEVHW LQFOXGHGDWDFRPSOHWHQHVVDVVRPHHOHPHQWV

ZHUHPLVVLQJIRUFHUWDLQ\HDUV7KH:RUOG9DOXH6XUYH\ FRQGXFWVDFRPSDUDWLYHVRFLDOVXUYH\

HYHU\\HDUV,WFRQVLVWVRIVXUYH\UHVSRQGHQWVDQVZHUV RQWKHLUFXUUHQWOHYHORIKDSSLQHVV

ILQDQFLDOVDWLVIDFWLRQDQGOLIHVDWLVIDFWLRQ6LQFH WKHVHUHVXOWVDUHVHOIUHSRUWHGWKH\FRXOG

SRWHQWLDOO\EHVXEMHFWWRLQGLYLGXDOVQRWDFFXUDWHO\ UHSRUWLQJRUOHDGLQJTXHVWLRQVFDXVLQJELDVLQ

UHVSRQVHV


,QFKRRVLQJYDULDEOHVRILQWHUHVW,PRGHOHG7HPSOHDQG-RKQVRQ¶VLQGLFDWRUVWKDWSURYHG

WREHWKHPRVWH[SODQDWRU\QDPHO\H[WHQWRIPDVVFRPPXQLFDWLRQVRFLDOPRELOLW\DQGODERU

IRUFH)RUWKHVHFDWHJRULHV,KDYHWKHYDULDEOHV LQWHUQHWVXEVFULSWLRQV LQWHUQHW6XEV DYHUDJH

SHUFHQWDJHRILQGLYLGXDOVZKRFRPSOHWHGSRVWVHFRQGDU\ HGXFDWLRQ DYJ(GX DQGWKHSHUFHQWDJH

RIWKRVHHPSOR\HGZKRZRUNLQDJULFXOWXUH DJUL(PSOR\  ,QDGGLWLRQWRWKHVHGHYHORSPHQW

YDULDEOHV,LQFOXGHGWKHSHUFHQWDJHRIJRYHUQPHQW H[SHQGLWXUHVWKDWLVDWWULEXWHGWRKHDOWKFDUH

/LIH([SHFWDQF\LVWKHDYHUDJH\HDUVRIOLIHDWELUWK /LIH6DWLVIDFWLRQDQG)LQDQFLDO6DWLVIDFWLRQ

DUHERWKRQDVFDOHRIWKURXJKZLWKEHLQJ FRPSOHWHO\VDWLVILHGDQGEHLQJQRWDWDOO

VDWLVILHG7KHRULJLQDOOHYHORIKDSSLQHVVYDULDEOH ZDVPHDVXUHGRQDVFDOHIURPWRZLWK

EHLQJFRPSOHWHO\KDSS\DQGEHLQJFRPSOHWHO\XQKDSS\ ,QRUGHUWRKDYHWKHVFDOHEHWKHVDPH

DVWKHRWKHUPHDVXUHVRIVDWLVIDFWLRQ,PDGHDOO RIWKHYDOXHVRIWKHKDSS\YDULDEOHEHQHJDWLYH

7KLVZD\ZKLOHUXQQLQJWKHUHJUHVVLRQWKHFRHIILFLHQWV RQILQDQFLDOVDWLVIDFWLRQOLIHVDWLVIDFWLRQ

DQGKDSSLQHVVZRXOGKDYHWKHVDPHVLJQLIWKH\KDG WKHVDPHHIIHFWUDWKHUWKDQKDSSLQHVVEH

RSSRVLWH


7DEOH

9DULDEOH 2EVHUYDWLRQV 0HDQ 6WG'HYLDWLRQ 0LQ 0D[

+DSSLQHVV     

/LIH     


6DWLVIDFWLRQ

)LQDQFLDO     


6DWLVIDFWLRQ

/LIH     


([SHFWDQF\

*RYHUQPHQW     


+HDOWK
([SHQGLWXUH

$JULFXOWXUH     


(PSOR\PHQW

,QWHUQHW     


6XEVFULEHUV

3RVW     


6HFRQGDU\
&RPSOHWLRQ
3HUFHQWDJH


,QDGGLWLRQWRSLFNLQJYDULDEOHVVLPLODUWR7HPSOHDQG-RKQVRQWRXQGHUVWDQGWKH

UHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQKDSSLQHVVDQGLQFRPH,GLGD WZRVWDJHDSSURDFKWRPHDVXUHH[FHVV

KDSSLQHVV+DSSLQHVVLVPHDVXUHGLQWKUHHGLIIHUHQW ZD\VWKHH[SUHVVHGOHYHORIKDSSLQHVVDQ

LQGLYLGXDOIHHOVWKHLUFXUUHQWOLIHVDWLVIDFWLRQ RUWKHLUFXUUHQWILQDQFLDOVDWLVIDFWLRQ)RUWKHILUVW

VWDJH,UDQWKUHHLQGLYLGXDOUHJUHVVLRQV7KH\DOO FRQVLVWHGRI*'3SHUFDSLWDDVWKHLQGHSHQGHQW

YDULDEOHDQGWKHPHDVXUHRIZHOOEHLQJ KDSSLQHVV OLIHVDWLVIDFWLRQDQGILQDQFLDOVDWLVIDFWLRQ DV

WKHGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHIRU\HDUVEHIRUH,WKHQ WRRNWKHUHVLGXDOIURPWKHILUVWVWDJHZKLFK

UHSUHVHQWVWKHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQWKHDFWXDOOHYHO RIKDSSLQHVVDQGWKHSUHGLFWHGOHYHOWRXVHDV

WKHPHDVXUHRIH[FHVVKDSSLQHVV)RUWKHVHFRQGVWDJH ,UHJUHVVHGWKHUDWHRIJURZWKRI*'3SHU

FDSLWDRQWKLVUHVLGXDODORQJZLWKRWKHUH[SODQDWRU\ VRFLDOFDSDELOLW\YDULDEOHVWRVHHKRZLW

DIIHFWVJURZWKGXULQJ\HDUVODWHUWKDQ7KLV UHJUHVVLRQDOVRLQFOXGHGWKHDEVROXWHYDOXHRI

*'3SHUFDSLWDIRUWKHSUHYLRXV\HDU

0RGHO(TXDWLRQV

)LUVW6WDJH5HJUHVVLRQ

ԩԼՋՋՄՉՀՎՎՄՏ ࡙ Ɲɉ ࡒ ƝՄՏԨԥԱ ࡒ Ơ 

7KLVUHJUHVVLRQRQO\LQFOXGHVWKH\HDUVDQGEHIRUH

6HFRQG6WDJH5HJUHVVLRQ

ԨԥԱՂՍՊՒՏՃՄՏ ࡙ Ɲɉ ࡒ ƝՄՏԹ ࡒ ƝՉՀՓԾՀՎՎՃԼՋՋՄՉՀՎՎ ࡒ Ơŝ Թ ࡙ ՊՏՃՀՍՎՊԾՄԼՇԾԼՋԼԽՄՇՄՏՄՀՎ

7KLVUHJUHVVLRQLVIRUWKH\HDUVSDVW ƝՉ LVWKHNH\FRHIILFLHQWRILQWHUHVW


5HVXOWV

5HVXOWVVKRZWKDWH[FHVVKDSSLQHVVOHDGVWRORZHU SXUFKDVLQJSULFHSDULW\JURZWK7KLV

UHODWLRQVKLSPD\ZHDNHQZKHQFHUWDLQVRFLDOFDSDELOLW\ YDULDEOHVDUHDGGHGEXWWKHUHLVVWLOOD

QHJDWLYHUHODWLRQVKLS7KHILUVWVWDJHUHJUHVVLRQ ZLWKKDSSLQHVVDVWKHGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHDQG

*'3JURZWKDVWKHLQGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHGHPRQVWUDWHG DSRVLWLYHVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQW

UHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHWZR6SHFLILFDOO\DQRQH XQLWLQFUHDVHLQ*'3SHUFDSLWDFRUUHODWHVWRD

LQFUHDVHLQKDSSLQHVV)RUWKHVHFRQGVWDJH WKHPRVWFRQYLQFLQJUHJUHVVLRQLV

QXPEHUZLWKWKHH[FHVVKDSSLQHVVDQGEDVH\HDU YDULDEOHVFRPELQHGZLWKOLIHH[SHFWDQF\

JRYHUQPHQWH[SHQGLWXUHRQKHDOWKFDUHDORQJZLWK WKHSURSRUWLRQRIDJULFXOWXUHZRUNHUV,QWKLV

FDVHDRQHXQLWLQFUHDVHLQH[FHVVKDSSLQHVVZLOO RQDYHUDJHGHFUHDVH*'3E\:KHQ

LQWHUQHWVXEVFULSWLRQVDQGDYHUDJHHGXFDWLRQLVDGGHG H[FHVVKDSSLQHVVLVQRORQJHUVWDWLVWLFDOO\

VLJQLILFDQW(GXFDWLRQLVSRVLWLYHO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWK JURZWKVRLWVLQFOXVLRQWHQGVWRGLOXWHWKH

HIIHFWRIKDSSLQHVV+RZHYHUWKHUHLVDOVRWKHUHYHUVH WRWKLVLQWKDWKLJKHUJURZWKFDQOHDGWR

PRUHHGXFDWLRQ/RRNLQJDWWKHFRPELQDWLRQRIHGXFDWLRQ DQGKDSSLQHVVRQFH\RXFRQWUROIRU

HGXFDWLRQH[FHVVKDSSLQHVVLVQRWDVGDPSHQLQJ7KH FRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQHGXFDWLRQDQG

KDSSLQHVVLVVPDOORQO\:LWKLQWHUQHWVXEVFULSWLRQV WKLVYDULDEOHFRXOGEHELDVHGWRZDUGV

GHYHORSHGFRXQWULHVZKRDOUHDG\KDYHDKLJKHUSXUFKDVLQJ SULFHSDULW\EHFDXVHWKHLUFLWL]HQV

DUHPRUHOLNHO\WRKDYHHDV\DFFHVVWRWKHLQWHUQHW

)RUWKHRWKHUYDULDEOHVRILQWHUHVWOLIHVDWLVIDFWLRQ DQGILQDQFLDOVDWLVIDFWLRQUHVXOWVDUH

QRWDVFRQYLQFLQJ7KHVHUHVXOWVUHIOHFWWKDWRI(DVWHUOLQ DQG$QJHOHVFX¶VSDSHUZKLFKXVHGWKH

VDPHOLIHVDWLVIDFWLRQGDWDDQGIRXQGWKDWWKHUHLV QRUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQKDSSLQHVVDQGJURZWK


7KLVUDLVHVWKHTXHVWLRQGHEDWLQJZKHWKHURUQRWRQH¶VILQDQFLDOVWDWXVDFFXUDWHO\SUHGLFWVWKHLU

RYHUDOOZHOOEHLQJ

7DEOH

*UDSK*'33HU&DSLWDYV+DSSLQHVVOHYHOV


7KLVJUDSKGHPRQVWUDWHVYDULRXVSRLQWVRILQWHUHVWV :KLOHWKHUHLVDSRVLWLYHOLQHDU

UHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQ*'3SHUFDSLWDDQGKDSSLQHVV VRPHSRLQWVDUHFOHDURXWOLHUV)RULQVWDQFH

WKH3KLOLSSLQHVKDYHD*'3SHUFDSLWDRI\HW WKH\DUHRQHRIWKHKDSSLHVWFRXQWULHVDWD

OHYHORI2QWKHRWKHUKDQG$OEDQLDKDVD*'3 SHUFDSLWDRI\HWDPXFKORZHU

KDSSLQHVVOHYHODW0HDQZKLOHWKHPDMRULW\RI ORZLQFRPHFRXQWULHVKDYHDORZOHYHORI

KDSSLQHVV7KLVVXJJHVWVWKDWORZLQFRPHFRXQWULHV KDYHDZLGHUDQJHRIKDSSLQHVVZKLFKWKLV

SDSHUWULHVWRH[SORLWDQGLQYHVWLJDWH

*UDSK)LQDQFLDO6DWLVIDFWLRQYV+DSSLQHVV/HYHOV


*UDSK/LIH6DWLVIDFWLRQYV+DSSLQHVV/HYHOV

&RQFOXVLRQ

&RXQWULHVWKDWKDYHH[FHVVKDSSLQHVVRQDYHUDJHH[SHULHQFH VORZHUORQJWHUP*'3SHU

FDSLWDJURZWK7KHVHUHVXOWVDUHLQWHUHVWLQJDVLW UDLVHVTXHVWLRQVDERXWZK\WKLVLV2QHSRVVLEOH

VROXWLRQFRXOGEHWKHOHYHORI³FRQWHQW´WKHLUFLWL]HQV IHHO6KRXOGWKH\EHKDSS\ZLWKKRZWKHLU

OLYHVFXUUHQWO\DUHWKHUHLVOHVVLQFHQWLYHWRWU\ DQGLPSURYHWKHIXWXUH:KLOHWKLVFRXOG

SRWHQWLDOO\QRWKDUPGHYHORSHGFRXQWULHVLQFRXQWULHV ZKHUHWKHUHLVZLGHVSUHDGSRYHUW\WKLV

H[FHVVKDSSLQHVVFRXOGNHHSWKHPUHODWLYHO\LPSRYHULVKHG :LWKSHUVLVWHQWSRYHUW\WKHUHLVVWLOO

DVXEVSDFHRILQGLYLGXDOVWKDWWXUQWRFULPHFKLOG ODERUDQGRWKHUVLPLODUPHDQVWRPDNHPRQH\

,ILQGLYLGXDOVDUHFRQWHQWZLWKWKLVVWDWHRIWKHLU FRXQWU\WKLVFRXOGEHDSRWHQWLDOFDXVHRI

FRQFHUQVKRXOGLWJURZWRDIXUWKHUH[WHQWGXHWR QRLQWHUIHUHQFH


7KHYDOLGLW\RIJURVVGRPHVWLFSURGXFWGHOLYHULQJKDSSLQHVVKDVEHHQTXHVWLRQHGLQERWK

VWDWLVWLFDOUHVHDUFKSDSHUVDQGSKLORVRSK\,Q WKHIRXUWK.LQJRI%KXWDQGHYHORSHGWKH

FRQFHSWRI*URVV1DWLRQDO+DSSLQHVVZKLFKZRXOGEH WKHSULPDU\PHDVXUHRISURJUHVVLYH

GHYHORSPHQWRYHU*URVV'RPHVWLF3URGXFWLQ%KXWDQ 7KLVVWHPPHGIURP%KXWDQ¶VDQFLHQWOHJDO

FRGHZKHUHLQLWZDVVWDWHGWKDW%KXWDQHVHODZV PXVWSURPRWHKDSSLQHVVIRUDOOLWVFLWL]HQV

%KXWDQKDVVLQFHPHDVXUHGLWVJURZWKLQHTXDOWHUPV RIKXPDQDQGHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQW7KH

FRQFHSWRIDJURVVQDWLRQDOKDSSLQHVVVFDOHFRXOG EHLQIOXHQWLDOLQSUHGLFWLQJDPRUHKROLVWLFYLHZ

RIJURZWKZLWKLQFRXQWULHV-XVWEH\RQGWKHLU*'3 LWLVLPSRUWDQWWRPHDVXUHWKHZHOOEHLQJRI

LWVFLWL]HQVDQGKRZWKDWFRXOGLPSDFWVXEVHTXHQW GHYHORSPHQW

)XWXUHUHVHDUFKRQWKLVVXEMHFWPDWWHUVKRXOGORRN LQWRWKHLPSDFWRI&29,'RQWKH

UHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQH[FHVVKDSSLQHVVDQG*'3$Q LQWHUHVWLQJWDNHZRXOGEHWRFRPSDUH

FRXQWULHVZLWKYDU\LQJOHYHOVRI&29,'GHDWKVDQG VHHZKHWKHUH[FHVVKDSSLQHVVKDG

GLIIHUHQWUHVXOWVRQVXEVHTXHQWJURZWKDIWHUZLGHVSUHDG YDFFLQDWLRQV

$WWKHHQGRIWKHGD\H[FHVVKDSSLQHVVWHQGVWR GDPSHQIXWXUH*'3JURZWK7KHOHYHOWR

ZKLFKWKLVVKRXOGEHFRQFHUQLQJGHSHQGVXSRQWKHFRXQWU\ WKDWLVH[SHULHQFLQJWKLVHIIHFW

6KRXOGLWEHDFRXQWU\WKDWKDVKLJKH[FHVVKDSSLQHVV \HWKDVKLJKUDWHVRISRYHUW\DQGFULPH

WKLVOHYHORIFRQWHQWVKRXOGEHHYDOXDWHG7KH\PD\ DOORZWKHLUSUHVHQWKDSSLQHVVWRRYHUVKDGRZ

WUXHLPSHGLPHQWVWRJURZWKVXFKDVFULPHHGXFDWLRQ DQGFRUUXSWLRQ+RZHYHULIDFRXQWU\WKDW

LVDOUHDG\GHYHORSHGKDVH[FHVVKDSSLQHVVFLWL]HQV WKDWDUH³FRQWHQW´DUHQRWDVFRQFHUQHGIRULW

ZLOOQRWOHDGWRDF\FOLFDOLPSRYHULVKPHQW

:RUNV&LWHG


7HPSOH-RQDWKDQDQG3DXO$-RKQVRQ³6RFLDO&DSDELOLW\DQG(FRQRPLF*URZWK´ 7KH
4XDUWHUO\-RXUQDORI(FRQRPLFVYROQR SS± -6725
ZZZMVWRURUJVWDEOH$FFHVVHG$SU

(DVWHUOLQ5LFKDUG$DQG$QJHOHVFX/DXUD+DSSLQHVV DQG*URZWKWKH:RUOG2YHU7LPH6HULHV
(YLGHQFHRQWKH+DSSLQHVV,QFRPH3DUDGR[,=$'LVFXVVLRQ 3DSHU1R$YDLODEOHDW
6651 KWWSVVVUQFRPDEVWUDFW 

%HUWROXFFL6HWK³%H\RQG*'3(FRQRPLFVDQG+DSSLQHVV´ %HUNHOH\(FRQRPLF5HYLHZ
2FWHFRQUHYLHZEHUNHOH\HGXEH\RQGJGSHFRQRPLFVDQGKDSSLQHVV

.HVHELU6HOLQDQG6KLJHKLUR2LVKL³:KHQ(FRQRPLF *URZWK'RHVQ W0DNH&RXQWULHV


+DSSLHU´ +DUYDUG%XVLQHVV5HYLHZ$SU
KEURUJZKHQHFRQRPLFJURZWKGRHVQWPDNHFRXQWULHVKDSSLHU

³+,6725<2)*1+´ *1+&HQWUH%KXWDQ
ZZZJQKFHQWUHEKXWDQRUJZKDWLVJQKKLVWRU\RIJQK

You might also like