Crystal Hollis ITSE 1350.

21700 11/15/2023 Page 1 of 4

Optimizing Project Task Assignments Through Statistical

Analysis
Case in Point #7 Module 03.01
Introduction
As the saying goes, “There is only one way to eat an elephant: one bite at a time.” This
proverb emphasizes the approach of breaking down challenging tasks into smaller, more
manageable parts. However, finding the time and manpower required to complete such tasks is
a different story. The concept of person-days is a fundamental metric in project management,
offering a straightforward measure of human effort required to accomplish a task. In a specific
scenario at Sunrise Software, the Project Manager is grappling with understanding the
limitations of person-days in preparation for the upcoming project team meeting. Two
programmers on the project believe it doesn’t matter whether two people complete a task in 50
days, five people in 20 days, ten people in 10 days, or any combination of people and days that
adds up to 100 days’ worth of work. Conversely, the Systems Analyst disagrees, posing the
question of whether 100 people could complete a task estimated at 100 person-days in just one
day. This essay delves into the problem and explores the use of statistical analysis to precisely
determine and optimize the number of individuals assigned to each task.
Project Management and Statistics
The problem posed in the case study is to determine whether person-days as a concept
have limitations and how to find the optimum number of people to be assigned to a task. In the
field of Project Management, Project Managers do have a solution handy: a weighted formula
for estimating task duration (Tilley, 2017). It was developed as part of the Program Evaluation
Review Technique, or PERT. The PERT planning method facilitates time frame estimation for
project implementation, aiding planning, control, and optimal project realization within planned
durations (Majstorovic, Glavas, & Rosic, 2009). Here is the formula (with the discrete variables
representing consistent units of time such as hours or days):
Let B = Best-Case Estimate, P = Probable-Case Estimate, W = Worse-Case Estimate,
and E = Estimation (the answer).
(B + 4P + W) = E
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Random variables are assigned numerical values to different outcomes, enabling
expression of events in numeric terms and are categorized as either continuous or discrete
(Singh, 2021). In this case, the variables are discrete, which are countable distinct values. The
formula follows a similar framework as the 3-Points technique outlined by Reddi (2023), in which
the Triangular distribution formula uses E = (O +M + P) / 3, where M = Most Likely Estimation
(taking the average amount of work the task might take if performed 100 times), P = Pessimistic
Estimation (taking the amount of work it might take if negative factors occur), and O = Optimistic
Estimation (taking the amount of work it might take if positive factors occur). However, the
difference is that the formula Tilley presented, also known as the Beta Distribution, calculates
the weighted average in which more weight is given to the most likely estimate, following the
“Bell shape” curve of the Normal Distribution and therefore more accurate than the 3-Point
triangular estimation (Reddi, 2023).
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The Beta Distribution method employs stochastic analysis to estimate project durations,
effectively addressing uncertainties in activity durations (Majstorovic, Glavas, & Rosic, 2009).
An essential statistical concept within this methodology is the standard deviation, which
accounts for variability around the mean estimate. According to Reddi (2023), Standard
Deviation is calculated as (P – O) / 6. In this case study context, the standard deviation is
calculated as (W – B) / 6, representing the range of variability in task durations within the
project.
Once the standard deviation is calculated, the number demonstrates that in a normal
distribution, roughly 68% of the data falls within one standard deviation of the mean in both
directions, indicating a range of typical variability around the average estimate, 95% falls within
two standard deviations, and approximately 99.7% falls within three standard deviations (Singh,
2021). The variability around the mean estimate is distinct from the best-case and worst-case
estimates, offering a measure of dispersion rather than specific scenarios.
Ultimately, the Beta Distribution method is used to estimate project duration when there
is a high degree of uncertainty of the duration of individual activities (Majstorovic, Glavas, &
Rosic, 2009). By applying these formulas, the Project Manager can provide an accurate
estimate of the time required to complete a task to allow for better project planning and resource
allocation.
Additional Task Duration Influences
According to Tilley (2017), the Project Manager should consider various factors affecting
task duration, which significantly impact the precision of task completion estimations. Project
size, a primary consideration, demands meticulous attention to every phase and task within the
System Development Life Cycle. Tilley (2017) emphasizes the necessity of comprehensive task
identification, encompassing initial fact-finding to system implementation, and accounting for
contingencies such as scheduled vacations or unplanned absences that might impede team
productivity. Similarly, human resource considerations are critical, addressing challenges in
acquiring and retaining skilled IT professionals. Frederick Brooks (1972) argued that the
maximum number of people depends on the number of independent subtasks. Brooks’ Law
states that “adding manpower to a late software project makes it later“ (Brooks, 1972). There
comes a point where adding more people to a project increases complexity and communication
overhead, thereby reducing the project’s efficiency and speed. Although the Systems Analyst’s
argument suggesting 100 people could complete a task estimated at 100 person-days in one
day seems intuitive, Brooks’ Law suggests otherwise. Merely allocating more manpower to a
task doesn’t guarantee faster completion. In summary, identifying factors such as demand for a
proficient team, managing turnovers, job vacancies, and addressing external events impacting
schedules resonates with the essence of effective task allocation when adopting a statistical
analysis approach.
Steps to Balancing Worker Count
The Project Manager should present the following guidelines at the next project team
meeting:
1. Establish Baseline Parameters and Factors
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Conduct a preliminary investigation and define factors that may affect duration
estimates, such as project size, human resources, past similar projects, and
constraints (Tilley, 2017).
Using the findings from the preliminary investigation, determine best-case
estimates (B), probable case estimates (P), and worse-base estimates (W) for
task durations. For instance, for a task estimated at 100 person-days, B could be
80 days, P might be 100 days, and W could be 120 days.
2. Calculate Initial Estimate
Utilize the Beta Distribution formula considering the standard deviation:
(B + 4P + W) = E
6
This formula incorporates the weighted average and accounts for the variability
within the estimates. For example, in the given scenario:
(80 + 4*100 + 120) = 100 days
6
The standard deviation is calculated as
(W – B) ≈ 6.67 = 7 days
6
Taking into account the standard deviation, it’s expected that approximately 68%
of task durations will fall within about 7 days of the mean estimate of 100 days.
This suggests that the majority of task durations – roughly 68% – should range
from approximately 93 days (100 – 7 = 93) to 107 days (100 + 7 = 107) as the
lower and upper bounds, respectively.

3. Form a Hypothesis
Make educated guesses about the number of workers suitable for the task.
Continuing the same example: consider scenarios like five workers for 20 days,
ten workers for 10 days, or four workers for 25 days. Adjust and calculate the
expected duration for each scenario, incorporating the standard deviation to
refine estimates.

4. Experiment using Historical Data

Analyze the outcomes from prior projects to assess the factors and impact of the
worker count on task duration. Organize the data in a table for detailed
examination and then create a probability distribution graph. The visual
representation will offer a clearer understanding and aid in assessing the
distribution pattern. Probability distributions supports project management in
approximating estimates, especially in uncertain situations (Singh, 2021). This
analysis will provide insights into how the worker count affected the task duration
of past projects with similar dynamics. Gauge how human resource variations
affected task durations in past projects (Tilley, 2017).

5. Execute and Monitor Task Completion

Decide on the worker count based on the refined estimates. Document the actual
outcomes and include any unforeseen variations for future reference. Variations
could be the challenges to the task, such as technical and communication issues,
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resource allocation, worker competency vs. demand for training, flexibility of

worker hours, and prioritizing discretionary vs. non-discretionary projects. Adjust
to the variations to accommodate turnover, job vacancies, and events impacting
schedules.

6. Evaluate Results
Discuss and evaluate the actual outcome against the expected durations.
Evaluate the influence of standard deviation and unforeseen variations,
especially instances where human resource factors significantly affected task
challenges. Utilize these insights to enhance and fine-tune future estimations of
worker count for upcoming tasks, ensuring better accuracy in planning and
resource allocation. In essence, project success hinges on delivering the product,
service, or project results at the expected quality, meeting deadlines, and
adhering to the allocated budget (Majstorovic, Glavas, & Rosic, 2009). Therefore,
refining estimations based on past project successes becomes pivotal for
optimizing future worker counts and ensuring continued project efficiency.

Conclusion
In conclusion, statistical analysis offers a systematic way to optimize task assignments
efficiently. The outlined steps for balancing worker count by using the weighted Beta Distribution
model from the PERT planning method offers a structured framework. Statistical analysis in
project management aids informed decision-making, ensuring tasks meet quality benchmarks,
time frames, and budget constraints. The Project Manager and their team is equipped to
navigate uncertainties, optimize resources, and enhance project outcomes.

Works Cited
Brooks, F. (1972). The Mythical Man-Month: Essays on Software Engineering. Reading, MA,
USA: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Inc.
Majstorovic, V., Glavas, M. B., & Rosic, I. M. (2009). Statistical background for development
PERT project management technique software tool. Annals of DAAAM & Proceedings.
Reddi, L. T. (2023, April 14). 3-Points Estimating. Retrieved from projectmanagement.com:
https://www.projectmanagement.com/wikis/368763/3-points-estimating
Singh, H. (2021, August 8). Probability and Statistics in Project Management. Retrieved
November 2023, from Deep Fried Brain:
https://www.deepfriedbrainproject.com/2010/07/probability-and-statistics-in-projects.html
Tilley, S. (2017). Systems Analysis and Design (12th ed.). Boston, MA, USA: Cengage Learning.