Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Vedanta: CMP: INR320 TP: INR330 (+3%)
Vedanta: CMP: INR320 TP: INR330 (+3%)
Vedanta
Estimate change
TP change
CMP: INR320 TP: INR330 (+3%) Neutral
Rating change Revenue in line but miss on EBITDA; costs likely to decline
Bloomberg VEDL IN Consolidated net sales stood at INR341b in 3QFY23 (flat YoY and down 7%
Equity Shares (m) 3717 QoQ), in line with our estimate. The reduction in revenue QoQ was due to a
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 1188.9 / 14.6 decline in commodity prices and lower strategic hedging gains, partially offset
52-Week Range (INR) 441 / 206
by favorable forex movement.
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 7/26/-5
12M Avg Val (INR M) 4267 Consolidated EBITDA stood at INR71b (down 35% YoY and 8% QoQ), below
Free float (%) 30.3 our estimate of INR94b due to lower EBITDA from Aluminum, Steel, Zinc and
Power businesses. EBITDA fell QoQ due to a) lower commodity prices, b)
Financials & Valuations (INR b) higher input costs and lower strategic hedging gains.
Y/E March 2023E 2024E 2025E APAT stood at INR16b (down 63% YoY and 1% QoQ), 52% below our estimate
Sales 1,438 1,520 1,683
of INR32b due to weak operating performance and higher depletion from the
Attr. EBITDA 270.9 318.8 348.4
EBITDA margin 18.8 21.0 20.7 Oil & Gas vertical.
APAT 109.8 143.3 164.6 LME prices continued to decline QoQ/YoY. Copper/Aluminum/Zinc prices
Adj. EPS (INR) 29.5 38.5 44.2 declined 17%/16%/11% on a YoY basis.
EPS Gr(%) -43.9 30.5 14.9 On a QoQ basis, sales volumes of zinc/iron ore were up 11%/8% respectively.
BV/Sh. (INR) 126.4 132.1 146.0
Ratios
On the other hand, lead/silver/aluminum/steel fell 19%/17%/4%/6%
Net D:E 1.1 1.0 0.9 respectively.
RoE (%) 19.5 29.8 31.8 Net debt increased by INR58b to INR381b from INR321b at end-2QFY23. In
RoCE (%) 20.8 25.7 27.9 the last three quarters, net debt increased by INR179b.
Payout (%) 329.5 115.6 106.1
Coal linkage for the aluminum business improved to 66% (55% in 2Q FY23),
Valuations
P/E (x) 10.8 8.3 7.2 and it should improve further as the Jamkhani coal mine increases its
P/BV 2.5 2.4 2.2 production, thereby lowering CoP in coming quarters.
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.6 5.6 5.0
Div. Yield (%) 25.3 11.6 12.2
Highlights from management commentary
FCF Yield (%) 2.0 16.9 17.7
On track to be self-sufficient in coal: Vedanta recently commenced its
operations at the Jamkhani coal mine and with more mines scheduled to
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On Dec-22 Sep-22 Dec-21 open, VEDL is on track to achieve 100% self-sufficiency in thermal coal. This
Promoter 69.7 69.7 69.7 would be a structural move towards reducing CoP.
DII 11.1 10.4 10.8 Vedanta expects the deal with Hindustan Zinc to fructify as it is value accretive
FII 8.1 8.3 8.9 to both the entities. The funds received by the company would be deployed
Others 11.1 11.6 10.6
based on its capital allocation policy. It could be used to pay dividend, capex
FII Includes depository receipts
and other purposes.
Aluminum business: The company continues to focus on volume growth and
increasing the share of value-added capacity, which should improve margins.
Aluminum demand is improving and the company expects the prices to
improve. The share of Aluminum EBITDA in the company’s total EBITDA would
continue to rise.
Iron ore volumes are expected to improve with the removal of restrictions on
exports. Ore production from Liberia has started and the company exported
its first batch of shipment in Jan’23.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Vedanta
28 January 2023 2
Vedanta
Zinc International:
Operations are now steady at 250ktpa.
Gamsberg Phase II expansion is progressing well, which will take the current
capacity of 4mt to 8mt. The expansion is expected to complete by end-FY24.
CoP (ex. TcRc) was down by 12% due to a) higher operational efficiencies, b)
lower mill stoppages and c) highest ever MIC production.
Iron ore:
The sale was sluggish from Karnataka due to the ban on exports of iron ore from
India; however, post the removal of the ban in Dec’22, VEDL has resumed
exports of iron ore from Karnataka.
Pig iron margins were sluggish due to lower commercial prices.
Ore production from Liberia has started and the company exported its first
batch of shipments in Jan ’23.
Divestment of HZL:
The management has not offered any comments on the matter, except that the
company and government started roadshows.
Dividend:
The company declared a dividend of INR12.5/share in 3QFY23, taking the total
dividend declared to INR81/share for FY23.
28 January 2023 3
Vedanta
28 January 2023 4
Vedanta
Story in charts
Exhibit 1: Aluminum production (kt); highest ever 9M Exhibit 2: Break-up of Aluminum cost and EBITDA; higher
production of 1,715kt power cost impacted EBITDA ($/t) in 3QFY23
Jharsuguda 245 Kt Korba I 325 Kt Korba II Alumina ($/t) Power ($/t)
Other hot metal ($/t) Conversion & others ($/t)
584
578
572
4,000
569
566
565
548
531
497
489
483
477
476
474
472
470
468
468
79 80 77 76 77 3,000
78 78 79
78 79 77 74 75 76 79 72 75 79 66 66 67 67 64 65 65 65
64 66 66 63 63 65 66 65 66 68 2,000
443
432
428
424
423
423
404
387
350
344
342
338
335
333
331
331
329
325
1,000
0
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
Sources: Company, MOFSL Sources: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 3: Zinc LME vs Premium (USD/t); premium has Exhibit 4: Zinc India volumes (kt); while zinc volumes were
dropped significantly QoQ up QoQ, silver and lead volumes were down
Zinc LME ($/t, LHS) Premium ($/t, RHS) Zinc (kt, LHS) Lead (kt, LHS) Silver (t)
4,000 700
200 250
3,000 550
150 200
2,000 400 150
100
100
1,000 250 50 50
- 100 - -
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
Exhibit 5: Net debt at Vedanta Consol and ex-HZL (INR b) Exhibit 6: Dividend per share
EPS Dividend Dividend Yield (%)
Consol Ved (INR b) Consol Ved (Ex HZL) (INR b)
28.7
600
52.6
450
15.1
20.4
33.0
13.9
18.1
24.3
13.2
19.5
18.9
300
21.2
9.5
9.7
3.9
-
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23E
FY24E
FY25E
28 January 2023 5
Vedanta
90
40
(10)
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
Sources: MOFSL, Company
Exhibit 8: ROE and RoCE likely to be guided by LME prices and improve in FY24E onward
after touching a low in FY23E
RoE (%) RoCE (%)
30.7 27.9
25.7
21.0 20.8
27.7 29.8 31.8
14.5 15.4
12.4 12.1
19.5
16.2
12.2 10.7
9.7 8.4
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23E
FY24E
FY25E
Sources: Company, MOFSL
28 January 2023 6
Vedanta
28 January 2023 7
Vedanta
28 January 2023 8
Vedanta
28 January 2023 9
Vedanta
Exhibit 17: P/B ratio is near to its historical average… Exhibit 18: …so is EV/EITDA ratio
P/B (x) Avg (x) Max (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Avg (x)
3.0 Min (x) +1SD -1SD Max (x) Min (x)
2.4 12.0
9.3
2.0 1.8 9.0 7.1
1.4 6.0 5.3
1.0 0.9 3.4
3.0
2.2
0.4
0.0 0.0
Jul-15
Jul-20
Jul-15
Jul-20
Apr-14
Apr-19
Apr-14
Apr-19
Jan-13
Jan-18
Jan-23
Jan-13
Jan-18
Jan-23
Oct-16
Oct-21
Oct-16
Oct-21
28 January 2023 10
Vedanta
28 January 2023 11
Vedanta
28 January 2023 12
Vedanta
28 January 2023 13
Vedanta
The associates of MOFSL has not received any compensation or other benefits from third party in connection with the research report
Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not
consider demat accounts which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income from
clients which are not considered in above disclosures.
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the
research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.
Terms & Conditions:
This report has been prepared by MOFSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and
may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of
MOFSL. The report is based on the facts, figures and information that are considered true, correct, reliable and accurate. The intent of this report is not recommendatory in nature.
The information is obtained from publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty,
representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The
report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not constitute an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial
instruments for the clients. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOFSL will not treat recipients as
customers by virtue of their receiving this report.
Disclaimer:
The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed,
in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose
and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report
constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities
discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives,
financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. Each recipient of this document
should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including
the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be
suitable for all investors. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options, another derivative products as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial
risk and are not suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions
contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as
endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and
alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOFSL, its associates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect
or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment
banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a separate, distinct and
independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is already
available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOFSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the
views expressed therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other
person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of
or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject
MOFSL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category
of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Neither the Firm, not its directors,
employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may
arise from or in connection with the use of the information. The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees from, any
and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold
MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any
errors and delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022-3980 4263; www.motilaloswal.com.
Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 71881000. Details of Compliance
Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email Id: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-71881085.
Registration details of group entities.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL): INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-
2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI: ARN.: 146822. IRDA Corporate Agent – CA0579. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed
Deposit, Insurance, Bond, NCDs and IPO products. Customer having any query/feedback/ clarification may write to query@motilaloswal.com. In case of grievances for any of the
services rendered by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) write to grievances@motilaloswal.com, for DP to dpgrievances@motilaloswal.com.
28 January 2023 14