Calculating Probabilities For The Sample Mean

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Grade 11 • Unit 8: Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean
LESSON 8.1
Calculating Probabilities for the Sample Mean
Table of Contents
Learning Competency 1
Learning Objectives 1
Essential Questions 2
Prerequisite Skills and Topics 2
Lesson Proper 3
A. Introduction to the Lesson 3
B. Discussion 5
C. Practice & Feedback 13
Performance Assessment 26
Worksheet Answer Key 27
Synthesis 30
Bibliography 30
Unit 8 | Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean
Lesson 1: Calculating Probabilities for the

Sample Mean
Learning Competency
At the end of the lesson, the learners should be able to define the sampling
distribution of the sample mean using the Central Limit Theorem. (M11/12SP-
IIIe-3).
Learning Objectives
At the end of this lesson, the learners should be able to do the following:
• Correctly calculate the probabilities for the sample mean using the
Central Limit Theorem.
• Appropriately use the normal distribution table in locating probabilities
for the sample mean.
• Correctly solve problems involving probabilities for the sample mean.
1
Essential Questions
At the end of this lesson, the student should be able to answer the following questions:
● How can you use the concept of the Central Limit Theorem in calculating the
probabilities for the sample mean?
● What is the difference between the lower-tail and upper-tail probabilities?
Prerequisite Skills and Topics

Skills:
● Illustrating the Central Limit Theorem
● Applying the Central Limit Theorem for the sampling distribution
● Determining probabilities of z-scores using the normal distribution table
Topics:
● Statistics and Probability Unit 7: Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean |
Lesson 3: The Central Limit Theorem
● Statistics and Probability Unit 7: Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean |
Lesson 4: Sampling Distribution Using the Central Limit Theorem
2
Lesson Proper
A. Introduction to the Lesson

Suggested Warm-up Activities
Choose from any of the following warm-up activities. These warm-up activities should
either stimulate recall of the previous lesson or introduce the lesson and not already
used in the study guide.
Activity 1: Number Detective

This activity will challenge the students to compare the probability of the occurrence
of a certain average between the sample and the population data.
Duration: 10 minutes
Materials Needed: pen, paper
Methodology:
1. Ask all the students to think of a number from 1 to 100 and write it on the
board.
2. Ask them to find the average of all the numbers written on the board using
a calculator.
3. Tell them to choose four numbers written on the board and write it on a
paper.
4. Instruct them to compute the average of their chosen numbers.
5. Call random students to share their answers in front of the class.
6. Ask them to compare the average they got with their other classmates, and
then with the computed average of the whole class.
3
Expected Results:
The students should be able to compute the average of four numbers they chose and
compare it with the averages obtained by their classmates.
Guide Questions:
1. Did you obtain the same average with your classmates?
2. How can you predict a particular value will occur when samples are taken?
3. Is it possible to predict how likely a certain average will occur by just
considering the general average? Why or why not?
4. Is it possible for the mean of the sample means to be the same as the
population mean?
5. What will happen to the average if we increase the sample size?
Activity 2: Let’s Stir the Numbers

This activity will let the students compare the probability of the sample mean and
population mean.
Duration: 10 minutes
Materials Needed: pen and paper
Methodology:
1. Ask the students to think of a number from 1 to 50 and write it on a paper
and on the board.
2. Tell them to compute the average of all the numbers written on the board
using a calculator.
3. Ask them to form a group with five members where the average of their
chosen numbers should be equal/ approximately equal to the computed
4
average of the class.

4. Ask each group to show their numbers and its average in front of the class
and compare it with the other groups.
5. Tell them to answer the guide questions below.
Expected Results:
The students should be able to find a group where the average of their numbers
should be equal or approximately equal to the average of the whole class.
Guide Questions:
1. How did you find yourself a group? Did you encounter problems in doing the
activity?
2. Is it possible to predict how likely a certain average will occur by just
considering the general average? Why or why not?
3. How can you predict a particular value will occur when samples are taken?
4. What will happen to the average if we increase the sample size?
Teacher’s Notes
To help better gauge students’ readiness for this lesson, you may assign the short test
given in the Test Your Prerequisite Skills section of the corresponding study guide.
B. Discussion
1. Define and Discover
5
Teacher’s Notes
You may use the Learn about It! slides in the presentation file to discuss the following
key concepts and examples. Make sure to address student questions before jumping
from one concept to another.
• Sample Mean – the average value, denoted by 𝑥̅ , found in a sample of any

given population
Example:
Consider the set of all possible samples of size 2 from the population {2 ,4, 8}.
The samples are {2, 4}, {2, 8}, and {4, 8} whose sample means are 3, 5, and 6,
respectively.
• Sampling Distribution of Sample Mean – the probability distribution of the

sample means from all possible samples from a population
Example:
The table shows the sampling distribution of the sample means taken from
the population {2 ,4, 8} of size 2.
Sample Mean Probability

1
3
3
1
5
3
1
6
3
6
2. Develop and Demonstrate
Example 1
A sample of size 25 is randomly selected from a population with 𝜇 = 40 and standard
deviation of 6. What is the probability that the sample has a mean greater than 37?
Solution:
1. Analyze the problem.
The problem asked for the probability that the sample has a mean greater
than 37. Hence, we should look for 𝑃(𝑥̅ > 37).
2. Calculate the standard error.
𝜎
𝜎𝑚 =
√𝑛
6
𝜎𝑚 =
√25
𝜎𝑚 = 1.2
3. Write down the point of interest 𝑥̅ and locate the corresponding area on the
normal curve.
7
𝑥̅ −𝜇
4. Standardize the value of 𝑥̅ to 𝑧-score using the formula 𝑧 = 𝜎𝑚
.
𝑥̅ − 𝜇
𝑧= 𝜎
√𝑛
37 − 40
𝑧=
6
√25
𝑧 = −2.5
5. Use the normal distribution table to locate the probability of 𝑧 = −2.5.
If 𝑧 = −2.5, then 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 37) = 0.0062.

Recall that 𝑃(𝑥̅ > 37) is equal to 1 − 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 37). Hence,
8
𝑃(𝑥̅ > 37) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 37)

𝑃(𝑥̅ > 37) = 1 − 0.0062
𝑃(𝑥̅ > 37) = 0.9938
Thus, the probability that the sample has a mean greater than 37 is 𝟎. 𝟗𝟗𝟑𝟖.
Example 2
A sample with size 15 is randomly taken from a normal population with 𝜇 = 20 and
𝜎 = 9 What is the probability that the sample taken has a mean less than 15?
Solution:
The problem asked for the probability that the sample taken has a mean of less
than 15. Hence, we should look for 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 15).
𝜎
𝜎𝑚 =
√𝑛
9
𝜎𝑚 =
√15
𝜎𝑚 ≈ 2.32
normal curve.
9
𝑥̅ −𝜇
.
𝑥̅ − 𝜇
𝑧= 𝜎
√𝑛
15 − 20
𝑧=
9
√15
𝑧 ≈ −2.15
If 𝑧 = −2.15, then 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 15) = 0.0158.
Thus, the probability that the sample mean has a mean less than 10 is 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏𝟓𝟖
10
Example 3
A sample of size 11 is randomly selected from a population with 𝜇 = 23 and a standard
deviation of 4.3. What is the probability that the sample has a mean of less than 18 or
greater than 20?
Solution:
The problem asked for the probability that the sample taken has a mean less than
18 or greater than 20 denoted by 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 18) ∪ 𝑃(𝑥̅ > 20). Thus, we need to add the
lower-tail probability of 18 and the upper-tail probability of 20.
𝜎
𝜎𝑚 =
√𝑛
4.3
𝜎𝑚 =
√11
𝜎𝑚 ≈ 1.30
normal curve.
11
𝑥̅ −𝜇
4. Standardize the value of 𝑥̅ to 𝑧-score using the formula 𝑧 = .
𝜎𝑚
If 𝑥̅ = 18, then
𝑥−𝜇
𝑧= 𝜎
√𝑛
18 − 23
𝑧=
4.3
√11
𝑧 ≈ −3.86
If 𝑥̅ = 20, then
𝑥−𝜇
𝑧= 𝜎
√𝑛
20 − 23
𝑧=
4.3
√11
𝑧 ≈ −2.31
5. Use the normal distribution table to locate the probability of 𝑧 = −3.86 and 𝑧 =
−2.31.
If 𝑧 = −3.86, then 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 18) = 0.00006. Note that this does not appear in the 𝑧-
table since it is too small. If 𝑧 = −2.31, then 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 20) = 0.0104.
12
𝑃(𝑥̅ > 20) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 20)

𝑃(𝑥̅ > 20) = 1 − 0.0104
𝑃(𝑥̅ > 20) = 0.9896
6. Add the probabilities.
𝑃(𝑥̅ < 18) ∪ 𝑃(𝑥̅ > 20) = 0.00006 + 0.9896

𝑃(𝑥̅ < 18) ∪ 𝑃(𝑥̅ > 20) = 0.98966
Thus, the probability that the sample mean is less than 18 or greater than 20 is
𝟎. 𝟗𝟖𝟗𝟔𝟔.
C. Practice & Feedback

For Individual Practice
1. Ask the students to answer the following problem items individually using pen
and paper.
2. Give students enough time to answer the problem items.
3. Call a random student to show his or her work on the board afterward.
4. Let the student share how he or she comes up with his or her solution.
5. Inform the student the accuracy of his answer and solution, and in the case
13
when there is some sort of misconception, lead the student to the right
direction to find the correct answer.
Problem 1
A sample of size 10 is randomly selected from a population with 𝜇 = 25 and standard
deviation of 3. What is the probability that the sample has a mean of greater than 22?
Solution:
The problem asked for the probability that the sample has a mean greater than
22. Hence, we should look for 𝑃(𝑥̅ > 22).
2. Find 𝜇 and calculate the standard error.
𝜎
𝜎𝑚 =
√𝑛
3
𝜎𝑚 =
√10
𝜎𝑚 ≈ 0.95
normal curve.
14
𝑥̅ −𝜇
4. Standardize the value of 𝑥̅ to 𝑧-score using the formula 𝑧 = .
𝜎𝑚
𝑥−𝜇
𝑧= 𝜎
√𝑛
22 − 25
𝑧=
3
√10
𝑧 ≈ −3.16
If 𝑧 = −3.16, then 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 22) = 0.0008.
15
𝑃(𝑥̅ > 22) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 22)

𝑃(𝑥̅ > 22) = 1 − 0.0008
𝑃(𝑥̅ > 22) = 0.9992
Thus, the probability that a sample has a sample mean greater than 22 is 𝟎. 𝟗𝟗𝟗𝟐.
Problem 2
A sample with size 18 is randomly taken from a normal population with 𝜇 = 18 and
𝜎 = 8. What is the probability that the sample taken has a mean of less than 13?
Solution:
The problem asked for the probability that the sample has a mean of less than 13.
Hence, we should look for 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 13).
𝜎
𝜎𝑚 =
√𝑛
8
𝜎𝑚 =
√18
𝜎𝑚 ≈ 1.89
normal curve.
16
𝑥̅ −𝜇
.
𝑥−𝜇
𝑧= 𝜎
√𝑛
13 − 18
𝑧=
8
√18
𝑧 ≈ −2.65
If 𝑧 = −2.65, then 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 13) = 0.0040.
Thus, the probability that a sample has a sample mean of less than 13 is 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟒𝟎.
17
Problem 3
A sample of size 15 is randomly selected from a population with 𝜇 = 25 and a standard
deviation of 5.4. What is the probability that the sample has a mean less than 20.5 or
greater than 27.5?
Solution:
The problem asked for the probability that the sample has a mean less than 20.5
or greater than 27.5. Hence, we should look for 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 20.5) and 𝑃(𝑥̅ > 27.5) and
get its sum.
𝜎
𝜎𝑚 =
√𝑛
5.4
𝜎𝑚 =
√15
𝜎𝑚 ≈ 1.39
normal curve.
18
𝑥̅ −𝜇
.
If 𝑥̅ = 20.5, then
𝑥−𝜇
𝑧= 𝜎
√𝑛
20.5 − 25
𝑧=
5.4
√15
𝑧 ≈ −3.23
If, 𝑥̅ = 27.5, then
𝑥−𝜇
𝑧= 𝜎
√𝑛
27.5 − 25
𝑧=
5.4
√15
𝑧 ≈ 1.79
3. Use the normal distribution table to locate the probability of 𝑧 = −3.23 and 𝑧 =
1.79.
19
If 𝑧 = −3.23, then 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 20.5) = 0.0006.
If 𝑧 = −1.79, then 𝑃(𝑥̅ > 27.5) = 0.9633.
4. Add the probabilities.
𝑃(𝑥̅ < 20.5) ∪ 𝑃(𝑥̅ > 27.5) = 0.0006 + 0.9633

= 0.9639
Thus, the probability that a sample has a sample mean less than 20.5 or greater
than 27.5 is 𝟎. 𝟗𝟔𝟑𝟗.
For Group Practice

1. Ask the students to form a minimum of two groups to a maximum of five groups.
2. Each group will answer problem items 4 and 5. These questions are meant to test
students’ higher-order thinking skills by working collaboratively with their peers.
20
3. Give students enough time to analyze the problem and work on their solution.
4. Ask each group to assign a representative to show their solution on the board and
discuss as a group how they come up with their solution.
5. Inform the student the accuracy of his answer and solution, and in the case when
there is some sort of misconception, give the student opportunity to work with
his/her peers to re-analyze the problem, and then lead them to the right direction
to find the correct answer.
Problem 4
Gilbert reported that the Senior High School working students between the ages of
16 and 18 work an average of 25 hours per week. Assume that the variable is normally
distributed, and the standard deviation is 3 hours. If 20 working students are
randomly selected, find the probability that the mean of the number of hours they
work will be greater than 26.3 hours.
Solution:
The problem asked for the probability that the sample has a mean greater than
26.3. Hence, we need to find the 𝑃(𝑥̅ > 26.3).
𝜎
𝜎𝑚 =
√𝑛
3
𝜎𝑚 =
√20
𝜎𝑚 ≈ 0.67
21
normal curve.
𝑥̅ −𝜇
.
𝑥−𝜇
𝑧= 𝜎
√𝑛
26.3 − 25
𝑧=
3
√20
𝑧 ≈ 1.94
5. Use the normal distribution table to locate the probability of 𝑧 = 1.94.
22
If 𝑧 = 1.94, then 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 26.3) = 0.9738

Recall that 𝑃(𝑥̅ > 26.3) is equal to 1 − 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 26.3). Hence,
𝑃(𝑥̅ > 26.3) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 26.3)

𝑃(𝑥̅ > 26.3) = 1 − 0.9738
𝑃(𝑥̅ > 26.3) = 0.0262
Thus, the probability that the mean of the number of hours students work will be
greater than 26.3 hours is 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐𝟔𝟐.
Problem 5
In a zoo, the average number of kilos of meat that a lion consumes per month is 218.4
kilos. Assume that the standard deviation is 25 kilos and the distribution is
approximately normal.
a. Find the probability that a lion selected at random consumes less than 224 kilos
per month.
b. If a sample of 40 lions is selected, find the probability that the mean of the sample
will be less than 224 kilos per month.
Solution:
a. Find the probability that a lion selected at random consumes less than 224 kilos
per month.
The problem asked to determine the probability of a sample less than 224.
Thus, we need to find the 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 224).
𝑥̅ −𝜇
2. Since the question asks about a single lion, the formula 𝑧 = will be used.
𝜎
23
𝑥−𝜇
𝑧= 𝜎
√𝑛
224 − 218.4
𝑧=
25
𝑧 ≈ 0.22
3. Use the normal distribution table to locate the probability of 𝑧 = 0.22
If 𝑧 = 0.22, then 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 224) = 0.5871.

Thus, the probability that a lion consumes less than 224 kilos is 𝟎. 𝟓𝟖𝟕𝟏.
b. If a sample of 40 lions is selected, find the probability that the mean of the sample
will be less than 224 kilos per month.
The problem asked for the probability that the sample has a mean less than
224. Hence, we need to find the 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 224) with a sample of 40 lions.
𝜎
𝜎𝑚 =
√𝑛
24
25
𝜎𝑚 =
√40
𝜎𝑚 ≈ 3.95
normal curve.
𝑥̅ −𝜇
.
𝑥−𝜇
𝑧= 𝜎
√𝑛
224 − 218.4
𝑧=
25
√40
𝑧 ≈ 1.42
5. Use the normal distribution table to locate the probability of 𝑧 = 1.42.
25
If 𝑧 = 1.42, then 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 224) = 0.9222.
Thus, the probability that a sample of 40 lions consumes a mean of less than
224 kilos is 𝟎. 𝟗𝟐𝟐𝟐.
Performance Assessment
This performance assessment serves as a formative assessment, divided into three sets
based on the student's level of learning. Click on the link provided on the lesson page to
access each worksheet.
● Worksheet I (for beginners)

● Worksheet II (for average learners)
● Worksheet III (for advanced learners)
Teacher’s Notes
For a standard performance assessment regardless of the student’s level of learning,
you may give the problem items provided in the Check Your Understanding section of
the study guide.
26
Worksheet Answer Key

Worksheet I
A.
𝝁 𝝈 𝒏 ̅
𝒙 𝒛- Lower-tail Upper-tail
value Probability Probability
1. 46 4.5 30 48 2.43 0.0075
2. 63 11 9 58 −1.36 0.0869
3. 25 5.3 10 20 −2.98 0.0014
4. 78 16 45 70 −3.35 0.0004
5. 17 3 11 19 2.21 0.0136
B.
1. 0.8888
2. 0.7088
3. 0.7660
4. 0.2009
C. 0.1357
27
Worksheet II
A.
𝝁 𝝈 𝒏 ̅
𝒙 𝝈𝒎 𝒛- Lower-tail Upper-tail
value Probability Probability
1. 50 8 26 55 1.57 3.19 0.0007
2. 65 15 9 58 5 −1.4 0.0808
3. 22 8 10 18 2.53 −1.58 0.0571
B.
1. 0.9986
2. 0.9766
3. 0.0524
C.
1. 0.4176
2. 0.2327
Worksheet III
A.
1. 0.1131
2. 0.7357
3. 0.7564
4. 0.1388
B.
1.
a. 0.2061
28
b. 0.1251
2.
a. 0.0051
b. 0.3632
3.
a. 0.0038
b. 0.0918
29
Synthesis
Wrap-up To summarize the lesson, ask students the following questions:

1. How do we compute the probabilities for the sample
mean?
2. How do we solve word problems involving the probabilities
for the sample mean?
Application and To integrate values and build connection to the real world, ask
Values Integration students the following questions:
1. As a student, how will you apply the concept of the sample
mean in your daily lives?
2. What is the importance of computing the sample mean in
getting the overall mean?
Bridge to the Next To spark interest for the next lesson, ask students the following
Topic questions:
1. What is a binomial random variable?
2. How can you relate the central limit theorem to a binomial
random variable?
Bibliography
Glen, Stephanie. “Probability and Statistics Topic Index.” Statistics How To. Retrieved July 17
2019 from https://bit.ly/310Ttc9
30
Glen, Stephanie. “Sampling Distribution: Definition, Types, Examples.” Statistics How To.
Retrieved 17 July 2019 from https://bit.ly/32WSZ8T
31

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Grade 11 • Unit 8: Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean

Unit 8 | Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean

Lesson 1: Calculating Probabilities for the

Prerequisite Skills and Topics

A. Introduction to the Lesson

Activity 1: Number Detective

Materials Needed: pen, paper

Activity 2: Let’s Stir the Numbers

Materials Needed: pen and paper

average of the class.

1. Define and Discover

• Sample Mean – the average value, denoted by 𝑥̅ , found in a sample of any

• Sampling Distribution of Sample Mean – the probability distribution of the

Sample Mean Probability

2. Develop and Demonstrate

2. Calculate the standard error.

5. Use the normal distribution table to locate the probability of 𝑧 = −2.5.

If 𝑧 = −2.5, then 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 37) = 0.0062.

𝑃(𝑥̅ > 37) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 37)

2. Calculate the standard error.

5. Use the normal distribution table to locate the probability of 𝑧 = −2.15.

If 𝑧 = −2.15, then 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 15) = 0.0158.

2. Calculate the standard error.

𝑃(𝑥̅ > 20) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 20)

6. Add the probabilities.

𝑃(𝑥̅ < 18) ∪ 𝑃(𝑥̅ > 20) = 0.00006 + 0.9896

C. Practice & Feedback

2. Find 𝜇 and calculate the standard error.

5. Use the normal distribution table to locate the probability of 𝑧 = −3.16.

If 𝑧 = −3.16, then 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 22) = 0.0008.

𝑃(𝑥̅ > 22) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 22)

2. Calculate the standard error.

5. Use the normal distribution table to locate the probability of 𝑧 = −2.65.

If 𝑧 = −2.65, then 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 13) = 0.0040.

2. Calculate the standard error.

If, 𝑥̅ = 27.5, then

If 𝑧 = −3.23, then 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 20.5) = 0.0006.

If 𝑧 = −1.79, then 𝑃(𝑥̅ > 27.5) = 0.9633.

4. Add the probabilities.

𝑃(𝑥̅ < 20.5) ∪ 𝑃(𝑥̅ > 27.5) = 0.0006 + 0.9633

For Group Practice

2. Calculate the standard error.

5. Use the normal distribution table to locate the probability of 𝑧 = 1.94.

If 𝑧 = 1.94, then 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 26.3) = 0.9738

𝑃(𝑥̅ > 26.3) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 26.3)

3. Use the normal distribution table to locate the probability of 𝑧 = 0.22

If 𝑧 = 0.22, then 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 224) = 0.5871.

1. Analyze the problem.

2. Calculate the standard error.

If 𝑧 = 1.42, then 𝑃(𝑥̅ < 224) = 0.9222.

● Worksheet I (for beginners)

Worksheet Answer Key

3. 22 8 10 18 2.53 −1.58 0.0571

Wrap-up To summarize the lesson, ask students the following questions:

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