Pan C D

Pg
de d'd
f c d
 dad'd
Pf fa cld fold

d d'd
Fai ald f
independent
If C AD are
d d'd
Pf Fc d
f
 dad'd
Pf foie dlc to c

d'd
Fac
de fo c

independent
D are
If C

1 Fo a f C d'd
Pf
 0 F O
Pg Pa CZ
Mc MD
Mz
5
522 52
2Pa to TD
 CZ Ma Tz
Define U
Pa ZEO
Pp
Pa CUE EI
Fu
Pf Fz O

E C
 In C h D
Z
How to find mean

7
variance of Series
Need to use Taylor
approximation
 g g X
Pa g
x 03
Pp
Ca da
fx
X 0 within I
where g
 P
9
III
 di di x
g x di
di 50
Pg Pa glx
di
1 Foi
For m stories x min 91g
g
 ADY CE G
x Ty ICI 033 5112
g 53
6892 55
 t
Consider random process
Pa t crosses
threshold 5
in t t at
 0 0
Pa g g

g X t L
t dt
92 S X

t Xlt at
g
t
threshold
x crosses
Port

upcrossing
rate
gives mean