SIP Activity 2: Coin Toss Analysis

Coin Tosses (Part 1)

In this activity each student (groupmate) will first toss a coin 10 times (or access the StatCrunch applet* to
simulate 10 tosses) and repeat the process to produce 4 sets of 10 tosses each.
*StatCrunch applet is found via QUICK LINKS > MyLab StatCrunch > StatCrunch website > Interactive applets >
Simulations > “Probability of a head with a fair coin.” You may select 5 flips at a time in the applet.

Record your results in the table below. The exact sequence of heads and tails should be written in the Outcomes
columns.

FIRST POST: Each groupmate must post the results of their four sets in the Discussion board.

After all groupmates have posted their results, compile the data for “No. of Heads” of the group in the table
below. For example, if there are 5 groupmates, there should be 20 sets; add rows as needed if you have more.

Make a histogram of the ‘Frequency of sets resulting in _____ number of heads,’ i.e., the frequency with which a
certain number of heads occurred: 0 time, 1 time, 2 times, 3 times, … etc., among all the group’s sets. Your
histogram can be created with StatCrunch or Excel and inserted into this document. Or use the blank graph
provided on the next page to draw your histogram.
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 Frequency of sets resulting in a certain no. of heads

No. of Heads

SECOND POST (and subsequent posts): Share your histogram of the group’s results, and your answers to all
remaining questions and tables of SIP Activity 2, in the Discussion board.

Empirical Probabilities of Coin Tosses

Consider the group’s relative frequencies of obtaining a certain number of heads as empirical probabilities. So,
based on all the group’s sets, calculate the following empirical probabilities.

1. What is the empirical probability of obtaining 0 heads in 10 tosses?

0

2. What is the empirical probability of obtaining 1 head in 10 tosses?

0

3. What is the empirical probability of obtaining 9 heads in 10 tosses?

0

4. What is the empirical probability of obtaining 10 heads in 10 tosses?

0

5. Based on your group’s empirical probabilities, were any of the events, 0, 1, 9, or 10 heads, considered
unusual events? Why or why not?
Yes, this was an unusual result for me since I did a total of twelve trials with 10 tosses on each of them
and I didn’t roll 0, 1,9, or 10 heads at all.

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Theoretical Probabilities of Coin Tosses (Part 2)
Think of tossing a coin 10 times as a binomial probability experiment, where the probability of heads is p=0.5.
Compute the remaining theoretical probabilities of obtaining a certain number of heads in 10 tosses in the table
below.*

Enter your earlier empirical results in the last two columns. (Ex: the empirical probability of obtaining exactly 3
heads is the proportion of all your group’s sets that resulted in obtaining exactly 3 heads.)

Probability Frequency Empirical

No. of No. of of an Theoretical Probability of Event, of sets with Probability
heads combinations individual “No. of heads.” this No. of of this No.
outcome heads of heads

( ) ( ) =0.001
0 10
10 ! 1 1 1
0 =1 1× × 1− 0 0
0 !(10−0)! 2 2 2

() ( )
1 9
10 ! 1 1 1
1 =10 10 × × 1− =0.01 0 0
1! (10−1)! 2 2 2

( )( )
2 8
10 ! 1 1 1
2 =45 45 1− =0.044 1 0.083
2! (10−2) ! 2 2 2

( )( )
3 7
10 ! 1 1 1
3 =120 120 1− =0.117 3 0.25
3! (10−3) ! 2 2 2

4 3 0.25

5 252 1 0.083

6 210 0.205 3 0.25

7 120 0.117 1 0.083

8 45 0.044 0 0

9 10 0.010 0 0

10
1 0.001 0 0

*Hint: You may use StatCrunch > Stat > Calculators > Binomial to quickly calculate the Theoretical Probabilities.

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Theoretical vs. Empirical
The theoretical probabilities of obtaining a certain number of heads in 10 tosses of a coin were calculated using
the binomial probability function.

1. Would it be unusual, theoretically, to observe 0, 1, 9, or 10 heads in 10 tosses of a coin? Why or why not?
(Hint: What are the probabilities of these events?)
No, it would not be unusual to get 0,1,9, or 10 heads in 10 tosses of a coin since all those observations are
theoretically possible.

2. Discuss the differences, if any, between the theoretical probabilities in part 2 and your empirical
probabilities in part 1. Do differences indicate that the coins were not fair coins? What may be done to
narrow the gap between theoretical and empirical probabilities?
The only difference that I caught was that of course when I was getting 0 probability on some of my
numbers of heads in 10 tosses was that it was actually theoretically possible. No differences don’t make it
unfair because there’s theoretical and then you have the actual outcome of it.

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