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2000 AE Coelli - Technical Efficiency of European Railways A Distance Function Approach
2000 AE Coelli - Technical Efficiency of European Railways A Distance Function Approach
2000 AE Coelli - Technical Efficiency of European Railways A Distance Function Approach
Applied Economics
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To cite this article: Tim Coelli & Sergio Perelman (2000) Technical efficiency of European railways: a distance function
approach, Applied Economics, 32:15, 1967-1976, DOI: 10.1080/00036840050155896
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Applied Economics, 2000, 32, 1967 ± 1976
This study has two principal objectives. The ® rst objective is to measure and com-
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pare the performance of European railways. The second objective is to illustrate the
usefulness of econometric distance functions in the analysis of production in multi-
output industries, where behavioural assumptions such as cost minimization or
pro® t maximization, are unlikely to be applicable. Using annual data on 17 railways
companies during 1988± 1993, multioutput distance functions are estimated using
corrected ordinary least squares (COLS). The resulting technical e ciency estimates
range from 0.980 for the Netherlands to 0.784 for Italy, with a mean of 0.863. The
distance function results are also compared with those obtained from single-output
production functions, where aggregate output measures are formed using either total
revenue or a Tornqvist index. The results obtained indicate substantial di erences in
parameter estimates and technical e ciency rankings, casting signi® cant doubt upon
the reliability of these single-output models, particularly when a total revenue meas-
ure is used to proxy aggregate output.
2
The privatization process of some British Railways activities started in April 1994. For a description of this process see Dodgson (1994).
3
Or alternatively minimizing the inputs required to produce given outputs.
4
See Caves et al. (1982).
5
For example, see Ferrier and Lovell (1990). Also note that a dual pro® t or revenue function could alternatively be considered.
T echnical e ciency of European railways 1969
output vectors, y 2 RM ‡ , which can be produced using the tution and scale properties. Furthermore, as noted by
input vector, x 2 RK
‡ . That is, Klein (1953, p. 227), the Cobb± Douglas transformation
function is not an acceptable model of a ® rm in a purely
P… x† ˆ fy 2 RM
‡ : x can produce yg … 1† competitive industry because it is not concave in the output
We assume that the technology satis® es the axioms listed in dimensions. 6
Fare et al. (1994). The translog distance function for the case of M outputs
The output distance function, introduced by Shephard and K inputs is speci® ed as7
(1970) is de® ned on the output set, P… x†, as: M M X
M
X X
D O… x; y† ˆ min f³ : … y=³† 2 P… x†g … 2† ln D Oi ˆ ¬0 ‡ ¬m ln ymi ‡ 12 ¬mn ln ymi ln yni
mˆ1 mˆ1 nˆ1
As noted in Lovell et al. (1994), D O… x;y† is nondecreasing, K K X
K
X X
positively linearly homogeneous and convex in y, and ‡ k ln xki ‡ 12 kl ln xki ln xli
decreasing in x. The distance function, D O… x;y†, will take kˆ1 kˆ1 lˆ1
a value which is less than or equal to one if the output K X
M
X
vector, y, is an element of the feasible production set, ‡ ¯km ln x ki ln ymi i ˆ 1; 2;. . . ;N … 5†
P… x†. That is, D O… x;y† µ 1 if y 2 P… x†. Furthermore, the kˆ1 mˆ1
distance function will take a value of unity if y is located on
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the outer boundary of the production possibility set. That where i denotes the ith ® rm in the sample. Note that to
is, D O… x; y† ˆ 1 if y 2 Isoq P… x† ˆ fy : y 2 P… x† ;!y 2
= P… x† ; obtain the frontier surface (i.e., the transformation func-
! > 1g, using similar notation to that used by Lovell et al. tion) one would set D Oi ˆ 1, which implies the left hand
(1994). side of Equation 5 is equal to zero.
Note that a distance function may be speci® ed with The restrictions required for homogeneity of degree + 1
either an input orientation or an output orientation. This in outputs are
study begins by focusing upon an output distance function, M
X
primarily because there is a wish to make comparisons ¬m ˆ 1 … 6a†
between technical e ciency measures made relative to a mˆ1
single-output production frontier and those obtained rela- and
tive to a multioutput distance function. M
X
Distance functions have been estimated using a variety ¬mn ˆ 0 m ˆ 1;2;. . . ; M
of methods in recent years. These include: data envelop- nˆ1
ment analysis (DEA) ; parametric deterministic linear pro- and … 6b†
gramming (PLP) ; corrected ordinary least squares (COLS) ; M
X
and stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). These methods are ¯km ˆ 0 k ˆ 1;2;. . . ;K
discussed and compared in Coelli and Perelman (1996, mˆ1
1999). This study uses the corrected ordinary least squares
(COLS) method. The COLS method has the advantages of and those required for symmetry are
being easy to estimate and also permits the conduct of ¬mn ˆ ¬nm m ; n ˆ 1;2;. . . ;M
traditional hypothesis tests. Furthermore, a recent study and … 7†
by Coelli and Perelman (1999) found that COLS, para-
metric linear programming and DEA gave quite consistent kl ˆ lk k ;l ˆ 1;2;. . . ;K
technical e ciency rankings when applied to a single data It is also noted in passing that the restrictions required for
set. separability between inputs and outputs are
A translog functional form is speci® ed for the distance
functions in this study. The functional form for the dis- ¯km ˆ 0 k ˆ 1; 2;. . . ;K;m ˆ 1;2;. . . ; M … 8†
tance function would ideally be: (i) ¯ exible; (ii) easy to These last restrictions will be used when separability is
calculate; and (iii) permit the imposition of homogeneity. tested for in the following section.
The translog form has been used in other distance function A convenient method of imposing the homogeneity con-
studies (e.g. Lovell et al., 1994; Grosskopf et al., 1997) since straint upon Equation 5 is to follow Lovell et al. (1994) and
it is able to satisfy these three requirements. The Cobb± observe that homogeneity implies that
Douglas form does satisfy points 2 and 3 but falls down
under point 1 because of its restrictive elasticity of substi- D O… x;!y† ˆ !D O… x;y† for any ! > 0 … 9†
6
This is not such a serious problem, however, when optimizing behavour is not an issue. For example, when the primary interest is in
obtaining technical measures.
7
Note that ln represents the natural logarithm.
1970 T . Coelli and S. Perelman
Hence, following Lovell et al. (1994) one of the outputs is Input distance functions
arbitraily chosen, such as the Mth output, and set
The above discussion considers various methods of ® tting a
! ˆ 1 =yM one obtains
curve in one or more output dimensions. It is important to
D O… x;y =yM † ˆ D O… x;y† =yM … 10† note that the transformation function can also be ® tted
from an input perspective. The input distance function
For the translog form this provides: may be de® ned on the input set, L … y†, as:
M¡1
X
ln … D Oi =yMi† ˆ ¬0 ‡ ¤
¬m ln ymi D I… x;y† ˆ max f» : … x =»† 2 L … y†g … 19†
mˆ1
M¡1 where the input set L … y† represents the set of all input
X M¡1
X
‡ 12 ¤
¬mn ln ymi ¤
ln yni vectors, x 2 RK ‡, which can produce the output vector,
mˆ1 nˆ1 y 2 RM‡ . That is,
K
X K X
X K
‡ k ln xki ‡ 12 kl ln xki ln xli L … y† ˆ fx 2 RK
‡ : x can produce yg … 20†
kˆ1 kˆ1 lˆ1
K M¡1 D I… x; y† is nondecreasing, positively linearly homogeneous
X X
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‡ ¤
¯km ln xki ln ymi and concave in x, and increasing in y. The distance func-
kˆ1 mˆ1 tion, D I… x;y†, will take a value which is greater than or
equal to one if the input vector, x, is an element of the
i ˆ 1;2;. . . ;N … 11†
feasible input set, L … y†. That is, D I… x;y† ¶ 1 if x 2 L … y†.
¤
where ymi ˆ ymi =yMi . Furthermore, the distance function will take a value of
To facilitate COLS estimation, Equation 11 is rewritten unity if x is located on the inner boundary of the input set.
as A translog input distance function is obtained by impos-
ing homogeneity of degree + 1 in inputs (instead of in out-
ln … D Oi =yMi † ˆ TL… xi ;yi =yMi ;¬; ¯† i ˆ 1; 2; . . . ;N … 12† puts) upon the transformation function in Equation 5.
or Thus
and hence M X
X M K¡1
X
¡ ln … yMi † ˆ TL… xi ;yi =yMi ;¬; ¯† ¡ ln … D Oi† i ˆ 1;2;. . . ;N
‡ 12 ¬mn ln ymi ln yni ‡ ¤
k ln xki
mˆ1 nˆ1 kˆ1
… 14†
K¡1
X K¡1
X
The purpose is to obtain values of the parameters of the ‡ 12 kl
¤
ln xki ln xli¤
translog function which ensure that the function ® ts the kˆ1 l¡1
observed data `as closely as possible’, while maintaining K¡1 M
XX
the requirement that 0 < D Oi µ 1, which implies that ‡ ¤
¯km ln xki ln ymi
¡1 < ln … D Oi† µ 0. kˆ1 mˆ1
Following Lovell et al. (1994) the corrected ordinary
least squares (COLS) method can be used8 to estimate an i ˆ 1; 2;. . . ;N … 21†
output distance function. The function is ® tted in two
¤ ˆ
steps. The ® rst step involves interpreting the unobservable is obtained where xki xki =xKi and D Ii denotes the input-
term `¡ ln … D Oi †’ in Equation 14 as a random error term orientated distance measure. Estimation of a translog input
and estimating the translog distance function using OLS. distance function by COLS closely follows the approach
In the second step the OLS estimate of the intercept par- used for output distance functions. The two main di er-
ameter, ¬0 , is adjusted (by adding the largest negative OLS ences are that homogeneity is imposed in the inputs instead
residual to it) so that the function no longer passes through of the outputs (as discussed above) and, after OLS esti-
the centre of the observed points but bounds them from mates are obtained, the OLS estimate of the intercept is
above. The distance measure for the ith ® rm is then calcu- adjusted by adding the largest positive residual (instead of
lated as the exponent of the (corrected) OLS residual. the largest negative residual).
8
This method is described in Greene (1980) for the case of production and cost functions.
T echnical e ciency of European railways 1971
I I I . A PPL I C A T I ON T O E U R OPE A N with aggregate output constructed using a multilateral
R A I L WA Y S Tornqvist index; (iii) an output distance function with
separability between inputs and outputs imposed; (iv) an
Data (unrestricted) output distance function; and (v) an input
distance function.
The multioutput/multiinput technology of European rail-
First it is observed that the R-squared measures13 and t-
ways is estimated using annual data on 17 companies
observed over the six-year period from 1988 to 1993. The ratios indicate these estimated models appear to be a rea-
data are derived from data published by the International sonable ® t to the observed data. All R-squared values are
Union of Railways (UIC, 1988± 1993). The model is de® ned in excess of 94% and the t-ratios on almost all ® rst-order
with two output variables (passengers and freight) and coe cients and the majority of second-order coe cients
three input variables (labour, rolling stock and lines). 9 exceed 1.96 in absolute value. 14 All ® rst-order terms are
The passenger service output and freight service output also observed to have correct signs, with the exception of
variables are measured using the sum of distances travelled the coe cient of rolling stock in the ® rst three (restricted)
by each passenger and the sum of distances travelled by models. 15 It is noted, however, that the t-ratios associated
each tonne of freight, respectively. with these incorrectly signed coe cients indicate that these
The labour input variable is measured by the annual coe cients are not signi® cantly di erent from zero in mod-
els 2 and 3, but is signi® cant in model 1 (the revenue
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Distance functions
¬0 70.360 (3.3) 70.306 (6.8) 0.210 (5.1) 0.006 (0.2) 70.061 (1.6)
¬1 ± ± 70.428 (16.2) 70.528 (25.5) 70.472 (18.1)
¬2 ± ± 70.572 70.472 70.390 (16.1)
¬11 ± ± 70.025 (0.4) 70.378 (6.3) 70.279 (4.5)
¬22 ± ± 70.025 70.378 70.311 (3.8)
¬12 ± ± 0.025 0.378 0.293 (4.0)
1 1.225 (11.3) 0.934 (21.1) 0.872 (19.7) 0.592 (14.6) 0.543 (13.5)
2 70.442 (4.0) 70.088 (1.9) 70.037 (0.8) 0.180 (4.9) 0.145 (3.5)
3 0.502 (6.0) 0.408 (12.1) 0.408 (13.6) 0.358 (14.3) 0.312
11 0.425 (0.5) 2.084 (6.2) 1.425 (3.9) 70.708 (2.2) 0.216 (0.6)
22 0.689 (1.1) 0.885 (3.4) 0.470 (1.8) 71.030 (3.8) 70.558 (1.7)
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Notes: a T -tests are presented in parentheses. b All output distance functions parameters have been multiplied by ¡1 in order to be
comparable with the other results. c Italic parameters are calculated by homogeneity conditions.
The production function results obtained using the mul- The output distance function results presented in column
tilateral Tornqvist index appear to be better than the rev- 4 of Table 1 appear well behaved and well estimated. The
enue model results. The parameter estimates have the second-order output cross-produc t term, ¬12 , has the cor-
expected signs (or are insigni® cant) and are much closer rect sign so as to encourage the transformation curve to
to the distance function estimates and the correlations have a concave shape (rather than the convex Cobb±
between the technical e ciency predictions are positive Douglas shape that would result if this term was zero). It
and mostly of the order of 0.6 or more. The improved is also observed that the ® rst-order input coe cients sum
performance is probably due to a number of factors. to a value greater than one indicating the presence of
First, the Tornqvist index relies upon revenue shares rather increasing returns to scale at the mean. This observation
than actual price levels and hence will be less susceptible to conforms with results obtained in the majority of empirical
intercountry price di erentials as long as any di erentials railways analyses.
or subsidies are fairly evenly distributed across the two Separability restricted output distance function results
output groups. A second possible reason for a better per- are also presented in column 3 of Table 1 for comparative
formance is that the (de¯ ated) revenue measure may be purposes. This model is included because it was noted that
interpreted as an implicit quantity index and hence that if the Tornqvist production function di ers from the output
the price index used in de¯ ation is a Laspeyres or Paasche distance function in two respects: (i) it is separable and (ii)
index then the implicit technology is a linear technology. output aggregation is achieved using revenue share infor-
The Tornqvist index, on the other hand, is a superlative mation rather than by estimated coe cients. The separabil-
index because it is exact for the translog form which is a ity restricted function is estimated in an attempt to shed
¯ exible functional form (i.e., a second order approximation some light on the relative importance of these two factors.
to an arbitrary functional form) and hence is likely to pro- It is observed that the separability restricted distance func-
vide a better measure of aggregate output. tion results appear to be more similar to the Tornqvist
T echnical e ciency of European railways 1973
a
Table 2. T echnical e ciency for alternative models (average scores for the period 1988± 1993 )
Distance functions
BR United Kingdom 0.899 [1] 0.798 [6] 0.841 [5] 0.916 [2] 0.879 [5]
CFF Switzerland 0.589 [8] 0.734 [14] 0.781 [12] 0.879 [9] 0.895 [2]
CFL Luxembourg 0.565 [9] 0.789 [8] 0.804 [8] 0.876 [10] 0.861 [10]
CH Greece 0.530 [11] 0.653 [17] 0.719 [15] 0.862 [12] 0.855 [11]
CIE Ireland 0.800 [2] 0.749 [2] 0.769 [13] 0.900 [4] 0.881 [4]
CP Portugal 0.271 [17] 0.776 [10] 0.786 [11] 0.831 [16] 0.802 [16]
DB Germany 0.629 [7] 0.800 [5] 0.824 [6] 0.880 [8] 0.868 [8]
DSB Denmark 0.670 [6] 0.751 [11] 0.796 [9] 0.821 [17] 0.826 [15]
FS Italy 0.414 [16] 0.790 [7] 0.791 [10] 0.839 [15] 0.784 [17]
NS Netherlands 0.672 [5] 0.942 [1] 0.943 [1] 0.976 [1] 0.980 [1]
NSB Norway 0.430 [15] 0.877 [3] 0.897 [2] 0.885 [7] 0.879 [5]
OBB Austria 0.794 [3] 0.723 [15] 0.718 [16] 0.904 [3] 0.864 [9]
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RENFE Spain 0.504 [14] 0.738 [13] 0.753 [14] 0.861 [13] 0.843 [13]
SJ Sweden 0.546 [10] 0.682 [16] 0.728 [17] 0.843 [14] 0.834 [14]
SNCB Belgium 0.512 [12] 0.807 [4] 0.843 [4] 0.865 [11] 0.850 [12]
SNCF France 0.505 [13] 0.777 [9] 0.814 [7] 0.890 [6] 0.893 [3]
VR Finland 0.789 [4] 0.926 [2] 0.882 [3] 0.900 [4] 0.877 [7]
Mean 0.595 0.783 0.805 0.878 0.863
Correlation table
production function than they are to the unrestricted out- down because of the implicit assumption of separability
put distance function. This is apparent in the estimated (between the input and output functions). The application
parameters, the mean technical e ciency levels and in the in this paper indicates quite clearly that this separability
correlations between the technical e ciencies. Thus, it assumption can have a signi® cant in¯ uence upon both par-
appears that, in this instance, the separability assumption ameter estimates and technical e ciency scores.
is the principle factor that is driving the di erences between The ® nal set of parameter estimates presented in Table 1
the Tornqvist model and the output distance function. This are for an input distance function (column 5). The input
conclusion is supported by the observation that the null distance function results are included partly for compara-
hypothesis of separability is rejected by a generalized tive purposes but also because one could argue that an
likelihood-ratio test at a 1% level of signi® cance. input orientation may be more appropriate in railways
This conclusion has important implications for the use of because the managers are likely to have more discretionary
the Tornqvist index in constructing an aggregate output control over inputs rather than outputs. 16 This argument
measure for use in a single-output production function for endogenous input quantities and exogenous output
when modelling multioutput production technologies. It quantities has been presented by a number of authors to
suggests that even if one is able to obtain accurate meas- justify the use of dual cost functions in investigating multi-
ures of revenue shares, and even if these shares provide a output railways industries.
good indication of the shape of the production possibility The input distance function results are reassuringly simi-
curve, the single-output production function may still fall lar to the output distance function results. The ® rst-order
16
Recall that the main reason the study began with the output orientation was because it was a natural progression from a single output
production function.
1974 T . Coelli and S. Perelman
Table 3. Productivity change in European railways from 1978± 1983 to 1988 ± 1993
726.7 76.6
SNCB Belgium (1952) 1.326 0.984 1.304 722.2 716. 1 718.5
SNCF France (1952) 1.255 0.813 1.021 718.9 728. 1 72.6
VR Finland (1995) 1.336 0.863 1.154 744.4 712.6 73.2
Mean 1.286 0.907 1.167 715.3 713. 0 73.3
Note: a The year that the country joined the European Union is indicated in parentheses.
parameters do not di er greatly, other than by the expected would have been easier for a railway to change the usage
degree due to the imposition of the homogeneity constraint of input factors than to alter their market share. 18
upon the inputs instead of the outputs. The sum of the ® rst- The technical e ciency predictions for the input distance
order output coe cients is less than one in absolute value, function are tabulated in column 5 of Table 2. A mean
indicating the presence of increasing returns to scale. The technical e ciency level of 0.863 and mean values for indi-
mean technical e ciency, reported in Table 2, is 0.863. This vidual companies that range from 0.784 for Italy to 0.980
is only marginally smaller than the output-orientate d mean for The Netherlands are observed. When these results are
(0.878). 17 Finally a value of 0.921 is reported in Table 2 for compared with past studies (e.g., Perelman and Pestieau,
the correlation between the technical e ciency predictions 1988), similar e ciency rankings are noted amongst the
from the two models. Thus, all indicators suggest that the ® rms, but it is also observed that there has been a substan-
choice of orientation is not terribly crucial in this particular tial increase in average technical e ciency, relative to these
industry, especially if one’s primary interest is in perform- past studies. However, given that past studies have used a
ance measurement. variety of data de® nitions and estimation techniques, it
cannot be con® dently concluded that a large amount of
catch-up has actually occurred. Hence, it was decided to
Preferred results repeat the analysis using data from an earlier period.
Finally, we must address the question of which of our vari-
ous sets of results do we wish to identify as our preferred
Productivity change
results for the purpose of discussing the relative perform-
ance of European railways. The (unrestricted) input dis- An input-oriented distance function was estimated for the
tance function is selected as the preferred estimates six-year period 1978± 1983, using exactly the same variable
following a process of elimination. The production func- de® nitions and companies as for the period 1988± 1993.
tion estimates are rejected because they involve output Then the methods described in Chapter 10 of Coelli et al.
aggregation. The separability-restricte d model is rejected (1998) were applied to calculate (average) e ciency change,
on the basis of the likelihood ratio test. Finally the input technical change and total factor productivity (TFP)
distance function is selected over the output distance func- change between these two periods. The results presented
tion because it is believed that, over recent decades, it in Table 3 con® rm the existence of signi® cant catching-up
17
One would expect input-orientated technical e ciencies to be smaller when the technology exhibits increasing returns to scale.
18
From 1980 to 1994 the market share of rail transportation decreased from 24.9% to 15.9% in the European Union.
T echnical e ciency of European railways 1975
and productivity growth in European railways. Average clusion has important implications. It suggests that even if
TFP growth was 16.7% over this period. Results ranged one is able to obtain accurate measures of revenue shares,
from a 17% decline in Greece (the only country to experi- and even if these shares provide a good indication of the
ence a TFP decline) to an impressive 39.2% rise in TFP in shape of the production possibility curve, the single-output
the UK. production function (involving an aggregate Tornqvist out-
Most of this TFP growth appears to be due to cuts in put measure) may still be suboptimal because of the impli-
input usage (as opposed to output growth or technological cit separability assumption.
advance) . The last three columns of Table 3 list the cuts Finally, the results indicate that, the technical e ciencies
instituted by almost all companies in sta , rolling stock of European railways di er substantially from country to
and lines during the 1980s. These reductions have been country. The technical e ciency levels range from 0.784 for
primarily driven by the tighter budgetary constraints Italy to 0.980 for the Netherlands, with a mean technical
imposed upon European public enterprises over the last e ciency level of 0.863 across the sample. Furthermore, it
two decades. is noted that a signi® cant improvement has occurred in the
As public enterprises, European railways have been performance of European railways during the 1980s. All 17
required to pursue objectives other than pro® t maximiza- countries (with the exception of Greece) experienced TFP
tion and cost minimization. Traditionally, these social growth. Average TFP growth was 16.7% over this period,
objectives were used to justify government subsidies. with the UK recording the strongest TFP growth of 39.2%.
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However, in the 1970s this policy began to be strongly This improved performance in European railways was pri-
questioned, both by the national authorities themselves marily driven by substantial cuts in labour usage and roll-
(because of budgetary constraints ) and also by the ing stock, which were most likely a consequence of stricter
European Union, because of concerns that the subsidies government budgetary restrictions, combined with the
may distort market competition with other transportatio n in¯ uence of European Commission regulations placing
modes. Hence, successive European Commission regula- constraints upon the level of government subsidies.
tions, which have regulated government ® nancial support
to national railways companies, have played a major role in
improving the performance of European railways. 19
A C K N OW L E D G E ME N T S
The ® rst version of this paper was written in 1996 while
Tim Coelli was on sabbatical at CREPP at the UniversiteÂ
4 . C ON C L U S I ON S de LieÁge. Financial support from the Belgian National
Science Foundation (FNRS) is acknowledged. The authors
A key conclusion of this paper is that the use of total also wish to thank Henry-Jean Gathon, Shawna
revenue as a measure of aggregate output in an empirical Grosskopf, Kris Kerstens, Knox Lovell and Pierre
analysis of European railways, even after careful de¯ ation, Pestieau for their valuable comments. Any errors that
appears fraught with danger. This is not a terribly surpris- remain are the author’ s own.
ing result given that few publicly owned rail organizations
set output prices with market conditions or cost recovery
notions in mind. The analysis does suggest that the multi- R EFER ENCES
lateral Tornqvist index may be a more suitable method of British Railways Board and University of Leeds (1979) A
aggregating output. However, having said this, it is appar- Comparative Study of European Rail Performance, BRB,
ent that there are still substantial di erences between the London.
Tornqvist results and the output distance function results. Caves, D. W. and Christensen, L. R. (1980) The relative e ciency
It was hypothesized that these di erences are most likely of public and private ® rms in a competitive environment: the
case of Canadian railroads, Journal of Political Economy, 80,
due to the combined e ects of (i) the separability restric- 958 ± 76.
tion, and (ii) the fact that output aggregation is achieved Caves, D. W., Christensen, L. R. and Swanson, J. A. (1981)
using revenue share information rather than by estimated Productivity growth, scale economies and capacity utilization
coe cients. A separability restricted output distance func- in US railroads, 1955± 74, T he American Economic Review,
tion is used to attempt to shed some light on the relative 71, 994 ± 1002.
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