Christopher Andrews - Pratt & Miller Engineering

You might also like

Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 19

The Economics of

Automated Ride Hailing

March 2024 - Autonomous Vehicles


2024 - Torrance CA
1
Agenda

01 About Pony.ai

02 Technology Overview

03 Major Cost Drivers

04 Business cases

Pony.ai - Confidential
Overview

► Founded in 2016 in Fremont, CA in Silicon Valley; first public robotaxi service in California (2019)

► Currently operating robotaxis in 6 metropolitan areas in the US and China ⇒ one of the market leaders in the field of
robotaxis and robotrucks

► China ADAS business unit founded 2021; US ADAS business unit founded 2023

► Strong financial position; current valuation of $8.5 billion

Pony.ai by the Numbers Worldwide Operation of Robotaxis

Beijing
16M+ 500+ Silicon Valley
2,000+ Shanghai
miles mi2 San Francisco
Guangzhou
Irvine (LA)
Shenzhen
Tucson, AZ

500+ >1,200 500+


3
Agenda

01 About Pony.ai

02 Technology Overview

03 Major Cost Drivers

04 Business cases

Pony.ai - Confidential
Pony.ai’s Hyundai Kona EV - 6th Generation Autonomous Vehicle
Illustration of main cost drivers beyond the vehicle

7X GMSL
Cameras Automotive
>$350 Grade GNSS/INS
System >$500

4X Automotive
Grade LiDAR
>$7000 3X Off the
shelf Corner
Radar >$600
4X Short Range
wide FOV LiDAR
>$2000
Automotive
Grade
Domain
Controller +
1X Off the Shelf
MRM
4D Radar
>$500 Controller
>$40K

A 2024 Kia Kona starts @ $32K ( but Kia need to add redundancies for scaled unmanned operations)
5
Platform Challenges - You can’t just buy a car off
the lot and add sensors and computers

At a minimum; redundant (fail operational) steering, brakes and power


ID and Vehicle Integration

Copyright © by Pony.ai, Inc. All rights reserved


● Slim profile with reliable structure ● Self-developed onboard compute with
● Robust integration of LiDARs, cameras, liquid cooling system (Excellent NVH
radars, GPS and other hardware performance)
components ● Space-efficient design allows for
● Professional ME & styling team design luggage storage in the trunk

CONFIDENTIAL 7
Interior & HMI Design - OEM assistance is essential
Front Display assembled on IP Pony UI Design Front Display

E-stop Button Pony DBI (Dashboard Indicator) Backseat Display

Copyright © by Pony.ai, Inc. All rights reserved


Integrated on Console shows important alerts to the operator

CONFIDENTIAL 8
Other Key Components - SCS

Sensor Cleaning System is to: Rain Sandstorm


Rain
avoid rain / fog / snow / dust / mud etc. complex weather condition impact on
sensor detection performance.

Pony Solution:

● Camera/ Lidar contamination detection module: detect camera


imaging quality or Lidar point cloud in real time to trigger SCS. Snow Fog

● Sprayer/ Hydraulic system: if dirty on the sensor surface.


● Jet blast/ Pneumatic system: if water droplets attached to the sensor.
● Status monitor: Statement of SCS published through CAN.

Copyright © by Pony.ai, Inc. All rights reserved


LiDAR cleaning - point cloud LiDAR cleaning - outside view Camera cleaning of dust/ mud - FOV Camera cleaning of dust/ mud - outside view

CONFIDENTIAL 9
Agenda

01 About Pony.ai

02 Technology Overview

03 Major Cost Drivers

04 Business cases

Pony.ai - Confidential
Overall Scale Up Plan - Cost Down Strategy

Collaboration with key partners


(especially an OEM) for highly
customized design and volume
price

Design optimization for large


scale manufacturing

Highly matured supply chain with


industry development

11
Use cases and markets - Robotaxi in the USA
(derived from Stanford Lead program)

Lifetime Yearly Daily


Mileage 500,000 100,000 274
Vehicle 55,000
L4 ready Vehicle including AV integration + bring up $70,000 $14,000 $38
L4 additions + HMI tech 15,000
Sensors 20,000
AV stack BOM $30,000 $6,000 $16
ECU 10,000
Energy Assuming BEV $50,000 $10,000 $27
Maintenance, Charging, and Cleaning 15 minutes of work + material $15,056 $3,011 $8
1:25 meaning 1 remote operator for 25
Remote operation $87,600 $17,520 $48
vehicles
Insurance, registration etc. Registration $598 + Insurance $1995/ year $12,965 $2,593 $7

Cloud cost/ Data/ Storage/ Compute see calculation on the right $92,011 $18,402 $50

Payment processing 2% of revenue $20,413 $4,083 $11

Marketing budget 5% of revenue $51,032 $10,206 $28

Estimate of $15 per day in real estate/ parking


Parking and storage $27,375 $5,475 $15
cost 12
Engineering/ ODD expansion and map maintenance, 1:25 meaning 1 engineer per 25 vehicles in an
$93,440 $18,688 $51
incident response ODD

Governance and administration 1:50 meaning 1 admin staff per 50 vehicles. $35,040 $7,008 $19

Total cost for L4 $584,932 $116,986 $321

Revenue mileage 75% 375,000 75,000 205


TURevenue
Braunschweig IfR - Oberseminar 2023 Average $1,020,635 $204,127 $559
Autonomy generations - Autonomy 1.0

● Beginning with hardware heavy stacks after DARPA Urban Challenge


● Most companies still have too high hardware cost, vehicles including hardware way
above $100,000 unit price
● Companies tend to own the full stack including HW, SW, infrastructure, tools
● Focus of engineering on R&D with expensive hardware, $5+ bn capital needed, some
have or will spent $10+ bn
● More sensors ⇒ More computing power ⇒ More offline storage and computing ⇒
Higher cost (Cloud costs are 2nd highest cost factor for AV companies)
● Examples: Waymo, Cruise, Zoox, Aurora, Argo.ai, Nuro, Baidu…

13
TU Braunschweig IfR - Oberseminar 2023
Autonomy generations - Autonomy 2.0

● More advanced algorithms and stronger software focus, cheaper hardware from the
beginning
● More components provided by suppliers, better components available from the start
● Examples: Pony.ai, Weride, Plus.ai, Kodiak, early Tesla, …
● 5-10x less capital needed compared to Autonomy 1.0
● Hardware requirements and cost mostly from redundancy:
● 360 degree sensor coverage in 2 sensor groups
● 2 redundant paths from sensors to actuators to avoid single points of failure
● otherwise, hardware cost reduction integrated into company progress

14
TU Braunschweig IfR - Oberseminar 2023
Autonomy generations - Autonomy 3.0

End to End Learning approaches, imitation learning, human like AI


Focus on valuable IP for companies, typically scene/ agent prediction and behavior of
vehicles
Examples: Ghost, Comma.ai, Wayve, current Tesla, …
Capital requirements not yet determined since data collection and computing cost for
offline learning seems immense
We’ll see if this can be cheaper or is just technologically more elegant

Different approach: MobilEye as example for coming from ADAS to AV, L2 for
data collection, transfer to L3 fairly soon, then transition to L4

15
TU Braunschweig IfR - Oberseminar 2023
Agenda

01 About Pony.ai

02 Technology Overview

03 Major Cost Drivers

04 Business cases

Pony.ai - Confidential
Clear GTM Strategy with Predominantly Vertically -Integrated Model

UNIQUELY POSITIONED TO BENEFIT FROM MANAGED FLEET AND THIRD-PARTY


PONY IS AT THE HEART OF THE AUTONOMY VALUE CHAIN PROVIDERS
► Pony intends to self-operate a key fleet in Tier-1 cities

▪ Significant and concentrated population, already active in these


cities

Retain
▪ Highly efficient path to market and extremely attractive economics
Customer Full
Facing
▪ Customer closeness allows for rapid refinement and optimization of
Control
Service business model
Customers Managed
Fleet ▪ Vehicles to be funded off balance sheet - keeps Pony asset light

► Pony will leverage third-parties in Tier-2/3 cities (and potentially in Tier-1)


▪ Numerous cities - benefit of partner logistics/feet-on-ground and
government/community engagement

Collaborate on ▪ Expectation of attractive revenue sharing model and licensing fees


Technology Stack Service
Fee to Pony while partner manages balance sheet
and Vehicle
Engineering ▪ Will optimize speed to deployment and keep Pony both asset and
personnel light - ultimate SaaS model

▪ Third-party discussions underway- partnerships being actively


negotiated
OEMs Third-Party
Pony maintains tremendous flexibility to optimize roll-out for the
best value creation

17
Who wants these things anyhow - ODD selection is key to profitability

Not only is population density important ; you also need the right socioeconomic conditions,
infrastructure investments and willing customers
Autonomous Mobility. Everywhere.

@Pony.ai @PonyAI_Tech @Ponyai_Tech

Thank you!

You might also like