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Antique's Morning Presentation - 200324 - Ebr
Antique's Morning Presentation - 200324 - Ebr
Antique's Morning Presentation - 200324 - Ebr
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
20 March 2024
ANTIQUE’S MORNING PRESENTATION
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
Market Snapshot
Global Indices Closing % Chg % YTD
COMPANY UPDATE
Dow Jones 39,111 0.8 3.8
J.K. Cement NASDAQ 16,167 0.4 7.7
Strong execution justifies premium valuation FTSE 7,738 0.2 0.1
Grasim Industries - Grasim raises INR 12.5 bn from IFC through Provisional flows (USD mn)
sustainability-linked NCDs.Grasim Industries, the flagship company of the Aditya FIIs 171
Birla Group, announced that it has raised INR 1,250 crore from International Local 897
Finance Corporation (IFC), the private-sector arm of the World Bank Group,
by issuing sustainability-linked non-convertible debentures (NCD). It said the Volumes USD bn % Chg
funds would be used to support decarbonisation through its new paint- Cash (NSE + BSE) 11.9 16.4
manufacturing business. F&O (net) 4,922.2 48.2
Unilever Rejig Plan - Consumer goods giant Unilever Plc has unveiled a FII F&O Stock Fut Index Fut
sweeping restructuring plan that includes separating its $8.6 billion ice cream
Net ($ mn) 147 (258)
business and cutting 7,500 jobs worldwide. The move, aimed at streamlining
Open Int (%) 0.2 4.2
operations and jumpstarting growth, marks a significant shift for the UK-based
company under the leadership of Chief Executive Officer Hein Schumacher. ADR/GDR Losers Last % Chg
Adani Green - Adani Green Energy said on Tuesday it is aware of a U.S. Dr Reddy 73.0 (3.2)
investigation into potential violations of anti-corruption laws by a "third party", Infosys 18.9 (1.7)
but denied any relationship with the entity. Wipro 6.0 (1.7)
HDFC 55.5 (1.0)
Inox Green Energy Services Ltd - Inox Green Energy Services Ltd (IGESL),
SBI 87.2 (0.9)
a wind power operations and maintenance (O&M) service provider, on Tuesday
announced that its subsidiary I-Fox Windtechnik India Private Limited (I-Fox) has
won an order from NLC India Ltd (NLCIL), a Navratna PSU of Govt of India. The
order is for the restoration of 33 wind turbine generators (each 1.5 MW) of
NLCIL's wind power plant located in Tenkasi District in the state of Tamil Nadu.
Fsn E-Commerce Ventures Ltd - Fashion and beauty retailer Nykaa hopes
to actively defend its turf amid competition from Indian conglomerates and
new players, as it stacks up strongly with a huge lead and advantage of
brand play, customer base and business insights.
Please refer to disclosures at the end of the Research Report
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 20 March 2024 | 2
Derivatives Update
Long Build Up
Company Last % Chg % Chg OI OI (in 000)
ABB 5,649.85 2.12 5.12 1,092
PIIND 3,704.20 1.04 4.91 1,777
APOLLOHOSP 6,121.15 0.35 4.48 2,317
PIDILITIND 2,896.30 1.28 4.17 2,056
HINDCOPPER 261.75 2.77 3.98 31,937
Bulk Deals
Security Name Client Name Buy/Sell Qty Price Value (mn)
GODFRYPHLP The Jupiter Global Fund-Jupiter India Select Buy 6,95,074 3,126.55 2,173
STARHEALTH Icici Prudential Mutual Fund Buy 35,74,074 540.00 1,930
EIHAHOTELS The Jupiter Global Fund-Jupiter India Select Buy 9,79,302 665.85 652
LTFOODS Abakkus Asset Manager Llp Buy 33,93,543 162.04 550
BBL Ratnabali Investment Pvt Ltd Buy 36,500 5,124.93 187
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 20 March 2024 | 3
Source: Bloomberg
Sensex FII Provisional Flows (INR bn) DII Provisional Flows (INR bn)
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Nov-22
Feb-23
May-23
Nov-23
Feb-24
Aug-22
Aug-23
10
0
1-Jan
7-Jan
13-Jan
19-Jan
25-Jan
31-Jan
6-Feb
12-Feb
18-Feb
24-Feb
1-Mar
7-Mar
13-Mar
19-Mar
20-Nov
26-Nov
2-Dec
8-Dec
14-Dec
20-Dec
26-Dec
Table 1: JKCE has been the most aggressive in terms of capacity expansion over FY19-24E
CAGR FY19-
Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY24E
UTCEM 94.9 111.5 111.5 116.0 131.4 138.6 7.9%
ACC 33.4 33.4 33.4 34.5 36.1 37.1 2.1%
ACEM 29.7 29.7 29.7 31.5 31.5 33.0 2.1%
SRCM 37.9 40.3 43.3 46.3 46.3 53.3 7.1%
DALBHARA 26.0 26.0 29.1 34.9 35.9 46.6 12.4%
TRCL 17.9 19.0 21.0 21.0 22.0 23.0 5.1%
JKCE 10.5 14.0 14.7 14.7 20.7 22.2 16.1%
BCORP 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 19.3 19.3 4.6%
ORCMNT 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 0.0%
NUVOCO 13.1 13.1 13.1 23.9 23.9 25.1 13.9%
HEIM 5.4 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 3.0%
JKLC 12.4 13.2 13.2 14.0 14.0 14.0 2.5%
Industry 489.0 506.1 520.3 546.6 581.1 619.5 4.8%
Source: Company, Antique
Table 2: JKCE's volume have grown at 13% CAGR over FY19-24E vs. 6% for its coverage universe
CAGR FY19-
Volumes (mt) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY24E
UTCEM 85.9 82.3 86.2 94.0 105.7 117.3 6.4%
ACC 28.8 29.8 26.2 29.4 30.9 36.3 4.7%
ACEM - s'lone 24.3 24.1 22.7 27.0 30.2 34.8 7.5%
SRCM 25.9 24.9 26.8 27.7 31.8 35.4 6.5%
DALBHARA 18.7 19.3 20.7 22.2 25.8 28.5 8.8%
JKCE 10.2 10.2 11.9 14.0 16.2 19.0 13.3%
TRCL 11.1 11.2 10.0 11.1 15.0 17.9 10.0%
JKLC 11.1 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.4 11.9 1.3%
ORCMNT 6.4 5.8 5.1 5.5 5.8 6.1 -1.0%
HEIM 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.8 4.4 4.9 0.1%
BCORP 13.8 13.6 13.4 14.2 15.7 17.6 4.9%
NUVOCO 12.6 12.2 16.0 17.8 18.8 18.6 8.2%
Total 253.7 248.2 253.9 278.7 305.2 336.2 5.8%
Source: Company, Antique
Exhibit 1: North and Central to constitute >80% of the capacity mix by FY26
Regionwise Capacity Split FY23E (%) Regionwise Capacity Split FY26E (%)
South South
16% 11%
North
42%
Central
19%
North
61% Central
44%
West
4% West
3%
Table 4: North and Central region likely to operate at >80% utilization over FY24-26E
Utilizations (%)
on effective capacities FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
North 75 77 83 78 82 87 85 84
Central 82 84 83 81 81 83 86 80
East 89 87 89 79 81 75 74 72
West 80 74 72 69 67 68 69 71
South 59 53 47 52 61 65 63 63
All India 73 71 72 69 72 74 74 72
Source: Company, Antique
Table 5: White cement and other operating income contribute ~40% of EBITDA
Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E
Grey Cement (excl other operating income) 3,343 6,830 10,435 9,274 7,030 12,993
White Cement/putty (incl Fujairah) 4,381 4,638 4,392 4,055 3,900 4,500
Other operating income 621 666 950 1,495 2,213 3,652
EBITDA 8,345 12,134 15,777 14,824 13,143 21,141
Exhibit 3: Capacity to grow at 16% CAGR over FY24-26E Exhibit 4: Volume to grow at 9% CAGR over FY24-26E
25 85
Regionwise Capacity Split FY23E (%)
South 80
16% 20
75
15 70
10 65
Central 60
19% 5
55
North
61% 0 50
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24E
FY25E
FY26E
West
4%
Sales Volume (mn ton) Utilization (%) (RHS)
Exhibit 5: Revenue to grow at 10% CAGR over FY24-26E Exhibit 6: EBITDA to grow at 14% CAGR over FY24-26E
160 25 30 80
140 20 60
25
120
15 40
20
100
10 20
80 15
5 0
60
10
0 (20)
40
(5) 5 (40)
20
0 (10) 0 (60)
FY24E
FY25E
FY26E
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24E
FY25E
FY26E
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
Revenues (INR bn) Growth (RHS) EBITDA (INR bn) EBITDA Growth (%) (RHS)
Exhibit 7: EBITDA/ton to improve to INR 1,209 by FY26E Exhibit 8: Net debt to decrease by ~INR 3 bn over FY24-26E
1,400 5 40 12
1,200 0 35
10
30
1,000 (5)
8
25
800 (10)
20 6
600 (15)
15
4
400 (20)
10
200 (25) 2
5
0 (30) 0 0
FY24E
FY25E
FY26E
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24E
FY25E
FY26E
EBITDA/ton (INR/ton) YoY change (%) (RHS) Net debt (INR bn) Net debt/EBITDA (x) (RHS)
Exhibit 9: Capex of INR 53 bn over FY24-26E Exhibit 10: RoE, RoCE to remain range bound in mid-teens
20 25 %
18
16 20
14
12 15
10
8 10
6
4 5
2
0 0
FY24E
FY25E
FY26E
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24E
FY25E
FY26E
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
OCF (INR bn) Capex (INR bn)FY23 RoCE (%) RoE (%)
Exhibit 11: EV/EBITDA 1-yr forward Exhibit 12: EV/ton 1-yr forward
30 (x) 250 (x)
25
200
20
17 150 147
15 135
14
12 100 104
10
8 61
5 50
0
0
Mar-19
Sep-19
Mar-20
Sep-20
Mar-21
Sep-21
Mar-22
Sep-22
Mar-23
Sep-23
Mar-24
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-23
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-24
EV/EBITDA Mean + 1 Std Dev EV/ton Mean
Mean - 1 Std Dev Mean Mean - 1 Std Dev Mean + 1 Std Dev
Financials (consolidated)
Profit and loss account (INR mn) Cash flow statement (INR mn)
Year-ended 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24e FY25e FY26e Year-ended 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24e FY25e FY26e
Net Revenue 79,908 97,202 1,15,786 1,27,569 1,39,664 PBT 10,273 6,313 12,440 15,408 17,327
Op. Expenses 65,084 84,059 94,644 1,02,884 1,12,305 Depreciation & amortization 3,425 4,582 5,524 6,132 6,754
EBITDA 14,824 13,143 21,141 24,685 27,359 Interest expense 2,697 3,122 4,503 4,339 4,460
Depreciation 3,425 4,582 5,524 6,132 6,754 (Inc)/Dec in working capital (4,794) 2,312 919 850 1,210
EBIT 11,399 8,561 15,617 18,553 20,605 Tax paid (3,479) (2,122) (3,830) (4,740) (5,295)
Other income 1,429 874 1,327 1,194 1,182 Less: Interest/Div. Income Recd. 1,571 874 1,327 1,194 1,182
Interest Exp. 2,697 3,122 4,503 4,339 4,460 Other operating Cash Flow (4,852) (3,978) (6,448) (5,238) (5,193)
Extra Ordinary Items -gain/(loss) 142 - - - - CF from operating activities 4,841 11,103 14,435 17,944 20,445
Reported PBT 10,273 6,313 12,440 15,408 17,327 Capital expenditure (14,716) (19,200) (13,000) (20,000) (20,000)
Tax 3,479 2,122 3,830 4,740 5,295 Inc/(Dec) in investments (734) 1,234 - - -
Reported PAT 6,794 4,191 8,610 10,667 12,032 Add: Interest/Div. Income Recd. 1,429 874 1,327 1,194 1,182
Minority Int./Profit (loss) From Asso. 79 72 72 72 72 CF from investing activities (14,021) (17,092) (11,673) (18,806) (18,818)
Net Profit 6,873 4,263 8,683 10,740 12,104 Inc/(Dec) in debt 4,224 12,402 (500) 3,000 -
Adjusted PAT 6,731 4,263 8,683 10,740 12,104 Dividend Paid (1,391) (1,159) (1,159) (1,352) (1,545)
Adjusted EPS (INR) 88.9 55.2 112.4 139.0 156.7 Others 1,003 (173) (241) (269) (304)
CF from financing activities 3,836 11,070 (1,900) 1,379 (1,849)
Balance sheet (INR mn) Net cash flow (5,345) 5,082 861 516 (222)
Year-ended 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24e FY25e FY26e Opening balance 16,096 10,751 15,833 16,694 17,211
Share Capital 773 773 773 773 773 Closing balance 10,751 15,833 16,694 17,211 16,989
Reserves & Surplus 42,476 45,495 53,018 62,406 72,965
Networth 43,249 46,267 53,791 63,179 73,738 Growth indicators (%)
Debt 38,149 50,551 50,051 53,051 53,051 Year-ended 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24e FY25e FY26e
Minority Interest (343) (444) (555) (694) (867) Revenue (%) 21.0 21.6 19.1 10.2 9.5
Net deferred Tax liabilities 7,383 8,094 9,082 10,306 11,672 EBITDA (%) -6.0 -11.3 60.9 16.8 10.8
Capital Employed 88,438 1,04,469 1,12,370 1,25,842 1,37,594 Adj PAT (%) -10.1 -36.7 103.7 23.7 12.7
Gross Fixed Assets 92,159 1,15,759 1,29,759 1,42,759 1,67,759 Adj EPS (%) -3.2 -38.0 103.7 23.7 12.7
Accumulated Depreciation 26,721 31,304 36,697 42,698 49,322
Capital work in progress 10,321 5,920 4,920 11,920 6,920 Valuation (x)
Net Fixed Assets 75,758 90,375 97,982 1,11,981 1,25,357 Year-ended 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24e FY25e FY26e
Investments 2,157 923 923 923 923 P/E (x) 45.0 72.5 35.6 28.8 25.5
Non Current Investments 110 215 215 215 215 P/BV (x) 7.1 6.7 5.7 4.9 4.2
Current Investments 2,047 708 708 708 708 EV/EBITDA (x) 22.6 26.1 16.2 13.9 12.6
Current Assets, Loans & Adv. 35,715 40,951 46,111 49,579 52,002 EV/Sales (x) 4.2 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.5
Inventory 11,687 9,221 9,682 10,166 10,675 Dividend Yield (%) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
Debtors 4,268 4,801 6,864 7,575 8,303
Cash & Bank balance 10,751 15,833 16,694 17,211 16,989
Financial ratios
Loans & advances and others 9,008 11,097 12,871 14,628 16,036
Year-ended 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24e FY25e FY26e
RoE (%) 16.7 9.5 17.4 18.4 17.7
Current Liabilities & Provisions 25,192 27,782 32,647 36,642 40,689
RoCE (%) 15.5 9.8 15.6 16.6 16.5
Liabilities 23,803 26,270 31,488 35,289 39,143
Asset/T.O (x) 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1
Provisions 1,389 1,511 1,159 1,352 1,545
Net Debt/Equity (x) 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5
Net Current Assets 10,523 13,170 13,464 12,938 11,313
EBIT/Interest (x) 4.8 3.0 3.8 4.6 4.9
Application of Funds 88,438 1,04,469 1,12,370 1,25,842 1,37,594
Mihir Vora
Within a short span, Suprajit Electronics Division (SED) has won orders worth
+91 22 6911 3448
INR 1.5 bn from marquee EV and ICE OEMs. Moreover, the company has
mihir.vora@antiquelimited.com entered the braking business where it has launched a mechanical disc brake
for the sub 125cc category. We believe there is significant potential for this
product with TAM for braking business in less than 125cc segment pegged
at ~INR 50 bn. On the traditional cable business, it will be a steady growth
mainly driven by entering new cable categories like door cables & sunroof
Market data cables and also complementing the cables with actuator sales. We expect a
Sensex : 72,012 significant improvement in the content/ vehicle for Suprajit driven by new
Sector : Automobiles products and recovery in the global business further aiding margins. We
are building in revenue/ EBITDA CAGR of 12%/ 20% over FY23-26E along
Market Cap (INR bn) : 54.7
with RoE/ RoCE of 21%/ 23% for FY26E. We value SEL at a PE multiple of 22x
Market Cap (USD bn) : 0.659 on FY26E estimates to arrive at a TP of INR 517.
O/S Shares (mn) : 138.4
Legacy cable business continues to be placed well
52-wk HI/LO (INR) : 454/323
Avg. Daily Vol ('000) : 223 Management has expressed complete focus on winning business in the legacy auto cables
segment, for which they are focusing on unpenetrated areas like door cables, sunroof cables,
Bloomberg : SEL IN
and actuators. Currently, the company is a very small player in the doors cable segment but
Source: Bloomberg
foresees decent order wins going ahead, this will lead to a decent volume growth as the
Valuation number of cables required in a door is more compared to other areas in a vehicle. The
FY24e FY25e FY26e company anticipates a notable increase in realization, propelled by the rising volumes of
EPS (INR) 11.9 18.4 23.5
actuators through leveraging the LDC technology.
P/E (x) 33.1 21.5 16.8 Demonstrating technical capabilities through SED
P/BV (x) 4.2 3.8 3.3 Management views SED as a key growth opportunity and anticipates substantial business
EV/EBITDA (x) 17.1 12.6 10.1 wins in this sector in the future. This optimism is fuelled by three main factors: firstly, the
Dividend Yield (%) 1.1 1.1 0.0 expected surge in electronic content per vehicle from the current 20% to an estimated 60%-
70%; secondly, the company's ability to harness its robust technical expertise; and thirdly, its
Source: Company, Antique
established and enduring client relationships both domestically and internationally. In a short
Returns (%) span, it has received orders worth INR 1.5 bn from traditional and new-age OEMs. SED has
1m 3m 6m 12m started supplying its instrument clusters to a leading E2W OEM and expects a significant
Absolute 2 6 (5) 8 ramp-up going ahead. We see a huge potential for SEL in the electronics business and
believe it can cross-sell these products to its existing customers owing to its strong customer
Relative 3 3 (12) (14)
relations.
Source: Bloomberg
Aiming to make it big in the braking segment
Shareholding pattern
SEL has created a mechanical disc brake specifically tailored for the <125cc 2W segment.
Promoters : 45% The company has been able to procure an order from a leading 2W OEM for the complete
Public : 55%
braking package. It has positioned the product as a cost-effective alternative; the mechanical
disc brake is estimated to be around 30% cheaper than hydraulic disc brakes, albeit 20%
Others : 0%
more expensive than traditional drum brakes. This development marks a strategic move by
Source: Bloomberg the company to catch up with the premiumization trend in the sub 125cc segment. The
company is quite confident on the product accuracy front as well compared to hydraulic
Price performance vs Nifty display. Plans include incorporating hydraulic disc brakes and ABS systems, gradually
140
positioning itself to compete with industry leaders such as Brembo, Bosch, and Endurance.
130
120
Investment Summary
110 SEL is expected to post revenue/ EBITDA CAGR of 12%/ 20% over FY23-26E, significantly
100 outperforming auto OEM growth, led by improving foreign operations, aftermarket, and
90 electronic division. The company has consistently outperformed industry growth over the last
Mar-23 Jul-23 Nov-23 Mar-24
11 years, led by organic and inorganic expansions. We value SEL at a PE multiple of 22x
Suprajit Engg NIFTY FY26E estimates to arrive at a TP of INR 517.
Source: Bloomberg, Indexed to 100
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 20 March 2024 | 12
Financials
Profit and loss account (INR mn) Cash flow statement (INR mn)
Year-ended March 31 FY22 FY23 FY24e FY25e FY26e Year-ended March 31 FY22 FY23 FY24e FY25e FY26e
Net Revenue 18,405 27,524 29,093 33,780 38,852 PBT 2,014 2,052 2,238 3,227 4,108
Op. Expenses 15,806 24,517 25,841 29,496 33,626 Depreciation & amortization 585 955 1,014 1,057 1,117
EBITDA 2,599 3,006 3,252 4,284 5,225 Interest expense (145) (356) (489) (348) (320)
Depreciation 585 955 1,014 1,057 1,117 (Inc)/Dec in working capital (471) (1,311) (802) (141) (1,151)
EBIT 2,014 2,052 2,238 3,227 4,108 Tax paid (621) (681) (655) (864) (1,106)
Other income 366 506 554 521 567 Less: Interest/Div. Income Recd. 366 506 554 521 567
Interest Exp. 145 356 489 348 320 Other operating Cash Flow 116.54
Extra Ordinary Items -gain/(loss) 116 - - - - CF from operating activities 1,845 1,165 1,860 3,453 3,215
Reported PBT 2,352 2,202 2,303 3,401 4,355 Capital expenditure (532) (3,329) (1,050) (750) (750)
Tax 621 681 655 864 1,106 Inc/(Dec) in investments 317 6 - - -
Reported PAT 1,731 1,521 1,648 2,537 3,249 CF from investing activities (215) (3,323) (1,050) (750) (750)
Net Profit 1,731 1,521 1,648 2,537 3,249 Inc/(Dec) in share capital (442) 438 (0) (47) (47)
Adjusted PAT 1,847 1,521 1,648 2,537 3,249 Inc/(Dec) in debt (162) 3,302 (500) (1,000) (400)
Adjusted EPS (INR) 13.4 11.0 11.9 18.4 23.5 Dividend Paid (346) (554) (969) (1,107) (1,107)
CF from financing activities (950) 3,186 (1,469) (2,154) (1,554)
Balance sheet (INR mn) Net cash flow 679 1,028 (659) 549 911
Year-ended March 31 FY22 FY23 FY24e FY25e FY26e Opening balance 3,788 4,467 5,495 4,836 5,385
Share Capital 138 138 138 138 138 Closing balance 4,467 5,495 4,836 5,385 6,296
Reserves & Surplus 10,701 12,106 12,785 14,168 16,263
Networth 10,840 12,245 12,924 14,307 16,401 Growth indicators (%)
Debt 3,115 6,417 5,917 4,917 4,517 Year-ended March 31 FY22 FY23 FY24e FY25e FY26e
Capital Employed 13,955 18,662 18,841 19,224 20,919 Revenue 12.2 49.5 5.7 16.1 15.0
Gross Fixed Assets 8,675 11,828 12,878 13,628 14,378 EBITDA 9.8 15.7 8.2 31.7 22.0
Accumulated Depreciation 2,799 3,753 4,767 5,824 6,942 Adj PAT 29.4 (17.7) 8.3 54.0 28.1
Capital work in progress 102 278 278 278 278 Adj EPS 29.4 (17.7) 8.3 54.0 28.1
Net Fixed Assets 5,978 8,353 8,389 8,082 7,714
Investments 31 25 25 25 25 Valuation (x)
Non Current Investments 31 25 25 25 25 Year-ended March 31 FY22 FY23 FY24e FY25e FY26e
Current Assets, Loans & Adv. 11,377 15,968 16,723 17,521 20,462 P/E (x) 29.5 35.8 33.1 21.5 16.8
Inventory 3,433 4,826 5,500 5,618 6,586 P/BV (x) 5.0 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.3
Debtors 2,972 4,608 5,252 5,365 6,289 EV/EBITDA (x) 20.5 18.4 17.1 12.6 10.1
Cash & Bank balance 4,467 5,495 4,836 5,385 6,296 EV/Sales (x) 2.9 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.4
Loans & advances and others 505 1,038 1,135 1,152 1,291 Dividend Yield (%) 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.0
Current Liabilities & Provisions 3,431 5,683 6,295 6,403 7,282
Liabilities 3,431 5,683 6,295 6,403 7,282
Financial ratios
Net Current Assets 7,946 10,285 10,428 11,118 13,180
Year-ended March 31 FY22 FY23 FY24e FY25e FY26e
RoE (%) 17.8 13.2 13.1 18.6 21.2
Application of Funds 13,955 18,662 18,841 19,224 20,919
RoCE (%) 17.5 15.7 14.9 19.7 23.3
Per share data Asset/T.O (x) 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.9
Year-ended March 31 FY22 FY23 FY24e FY25e FY26e Net Debt/Equity (x) (0.1) 0.1 0.1 (0.0) (0.1)
No. of shares (mn) 138.4 138.4 138.4 138.4 138.4 EBIT/Interest (x) 16.4 7.2 5.7 10.8 14.6
Diluted no. of shares (mn) 138.4 138.4 138.4 138.4 138.4
BVPS (INR) 78.3 88.5 93.4 103.4 118.5
Margins (%)
CEPS (INR) 16.7 17.9 19.2 26.0 31.5
Year-ended March 31 FY22 FY23 FY24e FY25e FY26e
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.1 10.9 11.2 12.7 13.4
DPS (INR) 3.3 3.5 4.5 4.5 0.0
EBIT Margin (%) 10.9 7.5 7.7 9.6 10.6
Source: Company, Antique
PAT Margin (%) 9.8 5.4 5.6 7.4 8.2
Source: Company Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 20 March 2024 | 13
Valuation Guide
Company Reco CMP TP Return M. Cap M. Cap Net profit (INR bn) EPS (INR) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Absolute (%)
(INR) (INR) (%) (INR bn) (USD bn) FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY25 FY25 FY25 1m 12m
Valuation Guide
Company Reco CMP TP Return M. Cap M. Cap Net profit (INR bn) EPS (INR) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Absolute (%)
(INR) (INR) (%) (INR bn) (USD bn) FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY25 FY25 FY25 1m 12m
contd...
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 20 March 2024 | 15
Valuation Guide
Company Reco CMP TP Return M. Cap M. Cap Net profit (INR bn) EPS (INR) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Absolute (%)
(INR) (INR) (%) (INR bn) (USD bn) FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY25 FY25 FY25 1m 12m
Valuation Guide
Company Reco CMP TP Return M. Cap M. Cap Net profit (INR bn) EPS (INR) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Absolute (%)
(INR) (INR) (%) (INR bn) (USD bn) FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY25 FY25 FY25 1m 12m
UTILITIES
CESC Buy 114 150 32 151.4 1.8 15.9 17.8 23.1 12.0 13.4 17.4 9.5 8.5 6.6 13.2 8.7 6.8 1.4 10.9 8.7 -12 67
COAL India Buy 419 508 21 2,582.5 31.1 353.5 345.1 360.7 57.4 56.0 58.5 7.3 7.5 7.2 7.2 7.1 6.5 2.7 40.0 19.8 -6 93
Indian Energy Exchange Sell 135 107 (20) 119.9 1.4 3.3 3.9 4.3 3.7 4.3 4.9 35.9 31.1 27.6 29.4 26.8 24.2 11.3 39.2 39.7 -8 -11
JSW Energy Buy 483 567 18 794.0 9.6 21.4 25.4 33.2 13.0 15.5 20.2 37.1 31.2 23.9 16.4 12.9 10.7 3.5 11.8 8.8 -2 96
NHPC Buy 82 93 13 828.2 10.0 42.7 49.2 55.5 4.2 4.8 5.4 19.8 17.2 15.2 23.2 17.8 16.4 2.0 12.0 5.6 -13 104
NTPC Buy 313 364 16 3,039.4 36.6 181.4 187.6 214.7 18.7 19.3 22.1 16.8 16.2 14.2 11.0 10.5 9.6 1.9 12.1 9.4 -9 78
Power Grid Buy 259 312 21 2,408.9 29.0 153.1 178.5 200.9 16.5 19.2 21.6 15.7 13.5 12.0 10.2 9.1 8.4 2.4 18.6 11.7 -10 52
PTC India Buy 179 224 25 53.1 0.6 3.3 4.2 4.8 11.3 14.3 16.3 15.9 12.5 11.0 10.1 6.8 5.9 1.2 9.6 12.6 -8 101
SJVN Ltd Buy 119 162 37 465.9 5.6 12.7 14.4 22.0 3.2 3.7 5.6 36.6 32.3 21.2 27.3 17.8 13.4 3.1 9.7 6.7 -4 284
Torrent Power Hold 1,264 1,149 (9) 607.5 7.3 20.0 28.2 32.1 41.6 58.7 66.7 30.4 21.5 18.9 14.4 11.7 10.7 4.3 21.4 18.0 10 138
Tata Power Buy 383 450 17 1,224.6 14.8 37.8 42.2 51.0 11.8 13.2 15.9 32.4 29.0 24.0 16.8 16.3 13.7 3.7 12.8 6.9 1 89
MIDCAPS - OTHER
CCL Products Buy 568 840 48 75.5 0.9 2.6 3.4 4.5 19.2 25.4 33.6 29.5 22.4 16.9 19.3 15.1 12.0 4.0 19.1 14.7 -12 2
EPL Ltd. Buy 184 300 63 58.6 0.7 2.6 3.5 4.7 8.1 10.9 14.9 22.7 16.8 12.3 8.9 7.1 5.6 2.6 16.0 19.6 -5 19
Ganesha Ecosphere Buy 925 1,540 67 23.4 0.3 0.4 1.4 1.6 16.0 50.6 61.4 57.7 18.3 15.1 17.8 10.3 9.4 1.9 11.6 12.4 -12 11
Gravita India BUY 796 1,410 77 55.0 0.7 2.2 3.0 3.9 31.6 43.6 56.6 25.2 18.3 14.1 18.2 13.1 10.5 5.3 33.1 31.2 -13 69
Indian Hotels Hold 549 500 (9) 781.6 9.4 12.4 15.7 17.7 8.7 11.0 12.5 63.0 49.8 44.1 36.6 30.0 26.7 7.6 16.3 16.6 0 74
Chalet Hotels Buy 744 900 21 152.8 1.8 2.4 3.5 4.2 11.8 17.3 20.3 63.2 43.1 36.7 27.4 22.5 20.1 6.6 16.6 13.3 -11 104
Mold-Tek Packaging Buy 794 1,010 27 26.4 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.1 19.9 25.5 33.6 39.8 31.1 23.6 20.8 17.0 13.5 3.9 13.3 11.8 -9 -15
Raymond Buy 1,710 2,670 56 113.9 1.4 16.8 8.0 10.4 252.3 120.9 156.3 6.8 14.1 10.9 10.4 8.9 7.0 2.1 16.3 19.0 -3 36
Solar Industries Hold 8,607 6,180 (28) 778.9 9.4 8.6 11.6 14.0 95.3 127.9 154.4 90.3 67.3 55.7 53.9 41.2 34.4 17.5 29.6 35.8 31 126
Varun Beverages Hold 1,399 1,300 (7) 1,817.5 21.9 25.4 33.1 41.5 19.5 25.5 31.9 71.6 54.9 43.8 40.9 32.6 27.0 15.3 31.5 30.4 -3 115
Yatra Online Buy 142 198 39 22.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.8 4.8 8.2 183.5 29.6 17.2 - - - 8.5 33.7 26.9 -17
Company Reco CMP TP Return M. Cap M. Cap Net profit (INR bn) BVPS (INR) P/BV (x)* NNPA Ratio (%) P/E (x) RoE (%) RoA (%) Absolute (%)
(INR) (INR) (%) (INR bn) (USD bn) FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY25 FY25 FY25 1m 12m
FINANCIALS
Axis Bank Buy 1,051 1,325 26 3,242.5 39.1 239.6 286.9 336.7 464.0 539.9 625.3 2.1 1.8 1.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 11.3 18.6 1.8 -3 25
Bank of Baroda Buy 249 275 10 1,288.2 15.5 176.7 188.0 204.5 197.6 226.6 258.2 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.1 6.9 17.1 1.1 -9 57
Canara Bank Buy 548 550 0 994.9 12.0 144.0 152.3 172.9 427.8 495.0 571.2 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.5 6.5 18.2 1.0 -4 97
City Union Bank Buy 128 180 41 94.5 1.1 10.2 10.7 11.9 113.1 125.9 140.4 1.1 1.0 0.9 2.2 2.0 1.8 8.8 12.1 1.4 -6 0
DCB Bank Buy 119 180 51 37.2 0.4 5.1 6.5 7.4 151.2 169.7 190.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.3 1.1 1.1 5.7 13.0 1.0 -12 18
Equitas SFB Hold 92 120 30 104.8 1.3 8.0 9.3 12.2 51.2 57.5 65.8 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 11.3 15.1 1.8 -12 39
Federal Bank Buy 148 190 29 359.0 4.3 37.1 40.2 46.5 117.4 131.0 146.7 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.8 8.9 13.3 1.2 -4 14
HDFC Bank^ Buy 1,449 2,000 38 11,009.9 132.7 647.2 746.9 883.3 561.8 637.8 707.9 2.3 2.0 1.8 0.4 0.5 0.6 14.6 18.6 1.9 0 -7
ICICI Bank Buy 1,084 1,275 18 7,610.5 91.7 402.3 410.1 476.0 326.1 372.9 427.2 2.9 2.5 2.1 0.5 0.6 0.6 18.5 16.5 2.0 3 30
IndusInd Bank Buy 1,434 1,925 34 1,116.1 13.4 89.7 106.7 125.4 792.0 902.0 1,029.4 1.8 1.6 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 10.5 16.2 1.9 -5 43
Karur Vysya Bank Buy 175 215 23 139.6 1.7 15.4 16.9 18.7 123.8 142.5 163.3 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 8.3 15.7 1.5 -4 79
Kotak Mahindra Bank Buy 1,750 2,175 24 3,478.1 41.9 127.7 134.3 153.5 463.4 528.4 602.8 2.7 2.2 1.8 0.4 0.5 0.6 25.9 13.6 2.2 -1 3
Punjab National Bank Hold 117 100 (14) 1,283.3 15.5 80.0 147.0 157.3 88.8 99.5 110.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 8.7 14.2 0.9 -10 148
State Bank of India Buy 724 750 4 6,459.6 77.8 524.7 603.7 679.4 346.6 400.7 461.6 1.7 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.8 10.7 17.1 0.9 -5 39
South Indian Bank Hold 28 31 10 58.9 0.7 10.5 9.6 11.4 34.6 38.7 43.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 6.1 12.5 0.8 -8 76
Ujjivan Small Bank Buy 45 68 50 89.0 1.1 12.3 12.2 13.0 26.8 33.0 39.7 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 7.3 20.2 2.5 -18 97
Union Bank of India Buy 149 155 4 1,138.6 13.7 139.3 150.0 163.2 117.7 132.2 148.1 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.1 7.4 16.2 1.0 6 135
*Adjusted for subsidiaries; ^ HDFCB Financials for FY24, FY25 and FY26 is for proforma merged entity
Company Reco CMP TP Return M. Cap M. Cap VNB (INR bn) EVPS (INR) P/EV (x) P/VNB (x) RoEV (%) Absolute (%)
(INR) (INR) (%) (INR bn) (USD bn) FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY25 1m 12m
Insurance
HDFC Life Insurance Buy 633 760 20 1,360.4 16.4 36.1 42.6 49.8 220.1 255.9 297.7 2.9 2.5 2.1 23.9 18.5 14.0 17.2 8 36
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Buy 550 610 11 791.6 9.5 22.3 25.0 27.8 292.5 331.3 374.6 1.9 1.7 1.5 18.8 14.5 10.8 14.0 5 36
LIC of India Hold 880 1,080 23 5,563.2 67.0 106.2 118.1 128.3 1,100.5 1,217.9 1,346.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 NA NA NA 10.9 -16 53
Max Life Insurance* Buy 962 1,180 23 331.8 4.0 18.9 22.0 25.5 574.4 682.7 809.0 2.6 2.2 1.9 17.4 13.3 9.7 19.5 0 56
SBI Life Insurance Buy 1,461 1,710 17 1,463.4 17.6 54.5 62.5 71.5 557.7 662.4 782.7 2.6 2.2 1.9 17.5 13.6 10.2 19.6 -3 36
*Valuations after factoring 20% holdco discount
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 20 March 2024 | 17
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