Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Complete Guide To Retirement
Complete Guide To Retirement
Larry E. Swedroe
&
Kevin Grogan
Image 1 - Introduction
7
Image 2 - Chapter 2
33
Image 3 - Chapter 3
37
Image 4 - Chapter 3
39
Image 5 - Chapter 4
International Equity
International large 3.75 5 6.25
International large value 3.75 5 6.25
International small 3.75 5 6.25
International small value 3.75 5 6.25
Emerging markets 3.75 5 6.25
Total International 20 25 30
Total Equity 45 50 55
Alternative Investments
Reinsurance 3.75 5 6.25
Alternative Lending 3.75 5 6.25
Total Alternatives 7.5 10 12.5
Nominal Bonds 15 20 25
TIPS 15 20 25
Total Fixed Income 35 40 45
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Image 6 - Chapter 5
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Image 7 - Chapter 5
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Image 8 - Chapter 5
72
Image 9 - Chapter 6
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Image 10 - Chapter 7
Probability
Portfolio A
Expected Return 5.0%
86
Image 11 - Chapter 7
Probability
Portfolio B
Expected Return 5.0%
87
Image 12 - Chapter 7
Probability
Portfolio B Portfolio A
Expected Return 5.0%
88
Image 13 - Chapter 7
Distribution of Returns
1984 - 2019
30%
25%
Fraction of Occurrences (%)
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
< -6.00 -6.00 : -4.00 : -2.00 : 0.00 : 2.00 : 4.00 : 6.00 : 8.00 : 10.00 : 12.00 : 14.00 : 16.00 : 18.00 : > 20.00
-4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 20.00
Return Range (%)
Portfolio 1 % Portfolio 3 %
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Image 14 - Chapter 7
Portfolio 1
1975–2019
Annualized Return (%) Annualized Standard Deviation (%)
10.4 10.3
* Data source: © 2019 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduced with permission.
92
Image 15 - Chapter 7
Portfolio 2
1975–2019
Annualized Return (%) Annual Standard Deviation (%)
Portfolio 1 10.4 10.3
Portfolio 2 11.8 10.4
* Data source: © 2019 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduced with permission.
Image 16 - Chapter 7
Portfolio 3
1975–2019
Annualized Return (%) Annual Standard Deviation (%)
Portfolio 1 10.4 10.3
Portfolio 2 11.8 10.4
Portfolio 3 12.3 11.1
93
* Data source: © 2019 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduced with permission.
Image 17 - Chapter 7
Portfolio 4
1975–2019
94
Image 18 - Chapter 7
Portfolio 5
1975–2019
Annualized Return (%) Annual Standard Deviation (%)
Portfolio 1 10.4 10.3
Portfolio 2 11.8 10.4
Portfolio 3 12.3 11.1
Portfolio 4 11.9 11.0
Portfolio 5 10.4 8.0
* Data source: MSCI
** Data source: © 2019 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduced with permission.
95
Image 19 - Chapter 7
1982–2019
Portfolio A Portfolio B
Annualized Returns/Standard Deviation (%) 10.3/10.3 9.4/7.2
Years with Returns Above 15%/Below −15% 12/1 9/0
Years with Returns Above 20%/Below −20% 8/0 3/0
Years with Returns Above 25%/Below −25% 2/0 2/0
Worst Year Return/Best Year Return (%) −17.0/29.3 −3.1/28.6
Number of Years with Negative Return 6 2
* Data source: © 2019 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduced with permission.
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Image 20 - Chapter 7
Probability
Portfolio B Portfolio A
Expected Return 5.0%
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Image 21 - Chapter 7
Probability Density
Portfolio C
Expected Return
Portfolio A
Portfolio B
Negative Return Positive Return
99
Image 22 - Chapter 12
138
Image 23 - Chapter 12
141
Image 24 - Chapter 13
152
Image 24 - Chapter 13 (continued)
153
Image 25 - Chapter 13
Medigap Plans*
Medigap A B D G K L M N
Benefit
Part A
coinsurance
and hospital
costs up to
an additional Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
365 days once
Medicare
benefits ha e
exhausted
Part B
Yes Yes Yes Yes 50% 75% Yes Yes
coinsurance
Medigap Plans*
Medigap A B D G K L M N
Benefit
Blood (1st 3
Yes Yes Yes Yes 50% 75% Yes Yes
pints)
Part A
hospice care Yes Yes Yes Yes 50% 75% Yes Yes
coinsurance
Skilled
nursing care No No Yes Yes 50% 75% Yes Yes
coinsurance
Part A
No Yes Yes Yes 50% 75% 50% Yes
deductible
Part B
No No No No No No No No
deductible
Part B excess
No No No Yes No No No No
charge
Foreign travel
No No 80% 80% No No 80% 80%
exchange
Out-of-Pocket
N/A N/A N/A N/A $5,240 $2,620 N/A N/A
limit**
* Plans in Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are regulated diffe ently.
** Once the annual out-of-pocket limit and Part B deductible have been fully met, the plan pays 100% of
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Image 26 - Chapter 14
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Image 27 - Chapter 14
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Image 27 - Chapter 14 (continued)
Panel C: Panel B – Panel A Probability of Having $1 Left for 30-
Year Horizon
Image 28 - Chapter 14
Table 2: SPIA Results
Panel A: No Annuitization, 65-Year-Old Male, 50–50
Probability of Having $1 Left for 30-Year Horizon
168
Panel C: Panel B − Panel A
Probability of Having $1 Left for 30-Year
Horizon
169
Image 29 - Chapter 15
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Image 30 - Chapter 15
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Image 31 - Appendix A
appendix a
LifeMap
257
Image 32 - Appendix C
264
Image 33 - Appendix C
265
Image 34 - Appendix C
Image 35 - Appendix C
266
Image 36 - Appendix C
Scenario 3: Correct Location
267
Image 37 - Appendix D
271
Image 38 - Appendix F
Single-Style Funds
Market Beta
Domestic
• Fidelity Spartan Total Market Index (FSTVX)
• Schwab U.S. Broad Market (SCHB)
• Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTI/VTSAX)
• iShares Core S&P Total US Market (ITOT)
Emerging Markets
Small
Domestic
284
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
285
Profitability/Quality
Domestic
Term
Carry
Multi-Style Funds
Small and Value and Profitability/Quality
Domestic
286
International
International
Alternative Funds
Value + Momentum + Quality + Defensive (Stocks, Bonds,
Currencies and Commodities)
287
291
Image 40 - Appendix H
appendix h
Recommended Reading
For those interested in learning more about evidenced-based investing and the
academic research on investing, we recommend:
294
Image 40 - Appendix H (continued)
For those interested in learning about how to prepare the next generation (your
heirs) we recommend:
295