I.E.

438 – SYSTEM DYNAMICS Spring 2014

Dr.Onur ÇOKGÖR

Homework 3 SOLUTION Out: April 11, 2014

Completely Model and Simulate a Situation by
VENSIM PLE© Due: April 18, 2014, (One Week)

Learning Objectives: In this homework you will get accustomed to the modeling and simulation steps of a situation by using the
©
VENSIM PLE software; VENSIM© PLE software MUST BE used for this homework.
Assignment
Prepare a CLD (Causal Loop Diagram) to model the situation below. After that, create a Vensim model consisting of Stocks, flows
and auxiliary variables that can model the situation. Use the dependencies and parameters given in the description of the case.
(It’s advisable to start by gathering all the variables from the description and find out the dependencies between those variable
before starting to build a model). Try to place all the units right in Vensim (the field ‘Units’). Simulate the model and answer the
questions.

All prepared CLD, Stock-Flow Model, Equations (Document All output) and causes strips will be included to the Homework.

Situation: Gossip spreading at school.

The school has 2000 students, who meet each other at random. In the start one person has heard a very juicy gossip. The person
that has heard the gossip meets persons that haven’t heard the gossip on daily basis. The number of these encounters is directly
proportional to the product of the persons that have heard the gossip and those that haven’t heard the gossip divided by the
total number of students. Every time this kind of encounter occurs the one that has heard the gossip tells it on with probability
of 0.2 (20%).

Set the time step small enough (four times a day), so that doesn’t cause problems.
1. How many days it takes before half of the students have heard the gossip?
2. At which point over 1900 students have heard the gossip?
3. How would it affect the times mentioned above if the probability of spreading the gossip on was 10%?

SOLUTION:

First collect the variables in the model.

Students who have heard the gossip

Students who haven’t heard the gossip
Gossip spreading
Encounters
Gossip spreading probability

Prepare a simple CLD (Causal Loop Diagram):

Gossip spreading
probability

+
Gossip
spreading
+

Encounters
+
- + +
Students who haven't Students who have
heard the gossip heard the gossip
Next form a model consisting stocks and flow:

Students who haven't Students who have heard

heard the gossip the gossip
gossip spreading

GOSSIP SPREADING
PROBABILITY
ENCounters

Set the following parameters:

FINAL TIME=120
TIME STEP=0.25
Units for Time=Day

Write the model equations (notice the units):

Students who haven’t heard the gossip= INTEG (-Gossip spreading,399)
Units: Student*Day

Gossip spreading probability=0.1

Units: **undefined**

Gossip spreading=Encounters*Gossip spreading probability

Units: Student

Students who have heard the gossip= INTEG (+Gossip spreading, 1)

Units: Student*Day

Encounters=
(Students who haven’t heard the gossip*Students who have heard the gossip)/
(Students who haven’t heard the gossip+ Students who have heard the gossip)
Units: Student*Day

Document all output:

(01) ENCounters=
(Students who have heard the gossip*Students who haven't heard the gossip
)/(Students who have heard the gossip+Students who haven't heard the gossip
)
Units: Day*Students

(02) FINAL TIME = 120

Units: Day
The final time for the simulation.

(03) gossip spreading=

ENCounters*GOSSIP SPREADING PROBABILITY
Units: Students

(04) GOSSIP SPREADING PROBABILITY=

0.2
Units: **undefined**

(05) INITIAL TIME = 0

Units: Day
 The initial time for the simulation.

(06) SAVEPER =
TIME STEP
Units: Day [0,?]
The frequency with which output is stored.

(07) Students who have heard the gossip= INTEG (

gossip spreading,
1)
Units: Day*Students

(08) Students who haven't heard the gossip= INTEG (

-gossip spreading,
1999)
Units: Students*Day

(09) TIME STEP = 0.25

Units: Day [0,?]
The time step for the simulation.

Simulate the model. The causes strip output:

Current 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Students who have heard the gossip

2,000 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1
1,500
1
1,000
1
500 1
1 1
0 1 1 1 1
gossip spreading
100 1
1
75
1
1
50
1 1
25
1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0
0 30 60 90 120
Time (Day)
Answers to the questions:
1. How many days it takes before half of the students have heard the gossip?

Half of the students (1000 students) have heard the gossip after ≈39 days

2. At which point over 1900 students have heard the gossip?

Over 1900 students have heard the gossip after ≈53 days.

3. Set the value of Gossip spreading probability to 10%.

Gossip spreading probability=0.1
Units: **undefined**
Current 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
run2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Students who have heard the gossip

2,000 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12 12 1
2
1 2
1,500 2
2
1
1,000 2
2
500 1
2
1 2
1 2 2 2 2
0 12 12 12 2
gossip spreading
100 1

75 1

1
50 2 2
2
2
1 2
25 12
2
1 2 2
2 1 2
0 12 1 2 12 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12 1
0 30 60 90 120
Time (Day)
How many days it takes before half of the students have heard the gossip?

Half of the students have heard the gossip after ≈77 days in case of 10% probability.

At which point over 1900 students have heard the gossip?

Over 1900 students have heard the gossip after ≈106 days in case of 10% probability.