ASSESSMENT OF ONSET, CESSATION AND DROUGHT EVENTS

FOR RAINFED WHEAT (TRITICUM AESTIVUM SSP.) PRODUCTION:

THE CASE OF MISHA WOREDA, SNNPR, ETHIOPIA

MSC THESIS

MELKAMU ABATE

AUGUST, 2018
HARAMAYA UNIVERSITY, HARAMAYA
 Assessment of Onset, Cessation and Drought Events for Rainfed Wheat
(Triticum Aestivum Ssp.) Production: The Case of Misha Woreda, SNNPR,
Ethiopia

A Thesis Submitted to the Directorate of Postgraduate Program through

the School of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Haramaya
University

In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF

SCIENCE IN IRRIGATION ENGINEERING

Melkamu Abate

August 2018
Haramaya University, Haramaya
 HARAMAYA UNIVERSITY
POSTGRADUATE PROGRAMS DIRECTORATE
I hereby certify that I have read and evaluated this Thesis, entitled “Assessment of Onset,
Cessation and Drought Events for Rainfed Wheat (Triticum Aestivum Ssp.) Production: The
Case of Misha Woreda, SNNPR, Ethiopia”.Prepared under my guidance by Melkamu Abate.
I recommend that it be submitted as fulfilling M.Sc Thesis partial requirement.

Mr. Shimelis Berhanu _______________ -------------------------

Major Advisor Signature Date

Prof. Shoeb Quraishi (Dr. Eng) ------------------------------ ---------------------------

Co- Advisor Signature Date

As member of the Board of Examiners of the M.Sc. Thesis Open Defense Examination, I have
read and evaluated the Thesis prepared by Melkamu Abate and examined the candidate. I reco
mmended that the Thesis as accepted as fulfilling the Thesis requirement for the Degree of
Master of Science in Irrigation Engineering.
____________________ __________________ _______________

Chairperson Signature Date

____________________ __________________

Internal Examiner Signature Date

____________________ __________________ ______________

External Examiner Signature Date

Final approval and acceptance of the Thesis is contingent upon the submission of its finalcopy
to the Postgraduate Program Directorate (PGPD) through the candidates department or Institu
te graduate committee (DGC or IGC)
 DEDICATION

I dedicate this thesis manuscript to my Father who always wishes to see the fruit of his child

and my elder brother TADELE ABATE for his contribution throughout my life.
 STATEMENT OF THE AUTHOR

By my signature below, I declare and affirm that this Thesis is my own work. I have followed
all ethical and technical principles of scholarship in the preparation, data collection, data analy
sis and compilation of this Thesis. Any academic matter that is included in the Thesis has bee
n given recognition through citation.

This Thesis is submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for M.Sc. degree at Harama
ya University. The Thesis is at the University library to be made available to borrowers under
the rules of the library. I solemnly declare that this Thesis has not been submitted to any other
institution anywhere for the award of an academic degree, diploma, or certificate.

Brief quotations from this Thesis may be made without special permission provided that accur
ate and complete acknowledgment of sources is made. Requests for permission for extended
quotation from or reproduction of this Thesis in whole or in part may be granted by the Head
of the School or Department when in his or her judgment the proposed use of the material is
the interest of scholarship. In all other instances, however, permission must be obtained from
the author of the Thesis.

ii
 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH

The author was born in Southern Nation Nationalities and People Regional State (SNNPR),
Hadiya Zone, Misha Woreda on July 06, 1990. He pursued his elementary education at Betara
Elementary School and his junior and secondary educations at Wachemo Compressive Secon
dary School. After completing his secondary school education in 2008, he joined the Ambo
University in 2009 and graduated with B.Sc. degree in Agricultural and Bioprocess Engineeri
ng in June 2013. Right after graduation, the author was employed in Duna woreda Water, Min
era and Energy Department as an Irrigation Engineer and worked as Irrigation Development
and Scheme Administration Coordinator since May 1, 2014 up to August 30, 2016. In Septem
ber 2017, he joined the School of Graduate Studies of Haramaya University to pursue his
M.Sc. in Soil and Water Engineering (Irrigation Engineering).

iii
 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I would like to thank the Lord Almighty for giving me the ability, health, strength, and motiva
tion to start and come to this study.

I would like to thank Mr. Shimelis Berhanu, my major advisor for that his concerned, affectio
nate, fatherly and friendly relation as well as his continuous and constructive comments for
the fulfillment of this work was invaluable have a special room in my heart for Prof. Shoeb
Quraishi, he is my role model in the way that he teaches, he works his simple and submissive
nature. The assistance I had from Mr. Abiy Gebremichael, Ph.D. Candidate at Haramaya Univ
ersity, during the proposal development and Thesis work is also highly appreciated. May
GOD bless him and his family!

I have no word at all to express my real feeling to my family specially my elder brother
Tadele Abate and my young brother Addisu Abate for their love, care, moral and financial
support throughout the course and the Thesis work. Love, care and support of my father Abate
Ofoche and mother Ayelech Lapiso were unforgettable too.

It is impossible for me to forget to express my heartfelt gratitude to my friends and brothers;

Melaku Melesa., Adena, Alemu, Dame Yadeta., Mulatu Abayicho, Kassaw Muluye, I am
grateful to Girma Tadesa, Getachaw Erikolo. Mulugeta Erikolo, Mairagu Desta and Dambalo
Madiso. Who shaped my life in comfortable ways, I never forget them and their help was
uncountable. Thank you all!

The support rendered by Soil and Water Engineering Department, especially Dr. Asfaw
Kebede and Dr.Ing. Teshome Seyoum were worthy enough. I am also grateful to NMA office
in Addis Ababa for provision of meteorological data free of charge and other facilities.

iv
 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

ATA Agricultural Transformation Agency

DI Drought Index
DM Drought Magnitude
DMA Decadal Moving Average
DZARC Debre Zeit Agricultural Research Center
ENSO El Niño/ Southern Oscillation
ETO Reference Evapotranspiration
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GIS Geographical Information System
INSTAT Interactive Statistical Processing Package
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
ITCZ Inter Tropical Convergence Zone
LGP Length of Growing Period
MoFED Ministry of Finance and Economic Development
NGOs Non Governmental Organizations
NMA National Meteorological Agency
NMHSs National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
PDSI Palmer Drought Severity Index
RSCZ Red Sea Convergence Zone
SMD Standard Meteorological Decades
SPI Standardized Precipitation Index
UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Drought
UNDP United Nation Development Program
USEPA United States Environmental Protection Agency
USLC United State Library of Congress
WMO World Meteorological Organization

v
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

STATEMENT OF THE AUTHOR II

BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH III
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS IV
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS V
LIST OF TABLES IX
LIST OF FIGURES XI
LIST OF TABLES IN APPENDEXI XII
ABSTRACT XIII
1. INTODUCTION 1
2. LITERATURE REVIEW 5
2.1. Ethiopian Rainfall Seasons and Associated Systems 5
2.1.1. Seasonal classification 5
2.2. Agriculture and Drought in Ethiopia 6
2.2.1. Definition and concepts of drought 7
2.2.2. Types of drought 9
2.2.3. Impact of drought 11
2.3. Cause of Rainfall Variability in Ethiopia 12
2.4. Impact of Rainfall Variability on Agricultural in Ethiopia 12
2.5. Effects of Climate Change on Wheat Production 12
2.6. Drought Indices to Characterize Dry and Wet Spells 13
2.7. Estimation of Rainfall Probabilities by Markov Chain Model 18
2.8. Number of Rainy Days 19
2.9. Trend Analysis 19
2.10. Sequential Mann-Kendall Test 20
2.11. Length of Growing Period 21
2.11.1. Estimation of onset and cessation date 22

vi
 2.11.2. Impact of onset and cessation of seasonal rainfall on crop production 23
2.11.3. Length of dry spells 24
3. MATERIALS AND METHODS 25
3.1. Description of the Study Area 25
3.2. Data Sources 26
3.2.1. Data input 28
3.3. Software Used 28
3.4. Processing of Rainfall Data 29
3.4.1. Missing rain fall data estimation 29
3.4.2. Consistency and homogeneity test of rainfall data 29
3.5. Onset and Cessation of Rainfall 30
3.6. Estimation of Length of Growing Period (LGP) and its Variability 30
3.6.1. Stability of LGP 32
3.6.2. Estimation of evapotranspiration 32
3.7. Analysis of Dry and Wet Spell for drought Assessment 34
3.7.1. Distribution of dry and wet spells 34
3.8. Drought Analysis 35
3.8.1. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) 35
3.8.2. Drought magnitude and intensity 36
3.8.3. Drought frequency analysis 37
3.9. Trend Analysis of Rainfall 37
3.9.1. Mann-Kendall Test 37
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 38
4.1. Missing Rainfall Data Estimation 38
4.2. Homogeneity and Consistency of the Rainfall Data Series 38
4.2.1. Homogeneity of the rainfall data series 38
4.2.2. Consistency test of rainfall data 39
4.3. Onset and Cessation of Rainfall for Kiremt and Belg Season and
LGPs of the Crop 40
vii
 4.3.1. The main rainy season (Kiremt) 40
4.3.1.1. Onset and end of rainy season 40
4.3.1.3. Variability of length of growing period in the kiremt season 41
4.3.2. The Small Rainy Season (Belg) 44
4.3.2.1. Onset and end of the Belg season 44
4.3.2.3. Characteristics of long term seasonal rainfall (March - October) 44
4.4. Markov Chain Modeling 46
4.4.1. Initial and conditional probability of occurrence of consecutive wet and dry
decades 46
4.5. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) 47
4.5.1. Temporal variation of drought 47
4.5.2. Relative frequency of drought events 47
4.5.3. Drought magnitude and intensity 50
4.6. Mann-Kendall Test 52
4.7. Characterization of Length of Growing Period for Wheat Crop 54
4.8. Characterization of the Rainy season 58
4.8.1. Kiremt season 58
4.8.2. Length of growing period and their variability in kiremt season 58
4.9. Length of Growing Period and Crop Water Requirement of Wheat
Crop 60
4.10. Trends in Long Term Characteristics of Kiremt Rainfall 62
5. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION 63
5.1. CONCLUSION 63
5.2. Recommendation 64
6. REFERENCE 66
7. APPENDICES 79

viii
 LIST OF TABLES

Table page
1. Information about meteorological stations 27
2. Stability of onset of growing period determined by the SD of average onset dates of season
(Reddy, 1990) 32
3. The drought classification using SPI, presented by McKee et al. (1993, 1995) 35
4. Drought classification by SPI values (Hayes et al., 1999) 36
5. Standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT) (total) for the considered 38
6. Mean onset decades and their stability in kiremt season 41
7. Mean Recession decades and their stability in kiremt season 41
8. Time series of length of growing periods of Hosanna station in Kiremt season. 42
9. Time Series of length of growing periods of Fonko station in Kiremt season 43
10. Summary of the onset date for small rainy season (March - May) in the study area 44
11. Monthly rainfall of both station (March October) 45
12. Number of occurrences of drought events during Kiremt season for the different drought
severity levels for 1-3-6-month time-scales for the two stations. 48
13. Relative frequency of drought events during Kiremt season for the different drought
severity levels for 1-3 - 6 - month time-scales for the two stations. 49
14. Number of occurrences of drought events during Belg season for the different drought
severity levels for 1- 3 - 6 - month time-scales for both stations. 50
15. Relative frequency of drought events during Belg season for the different drought severity
levels for 1 - 3 -6 - month time-scales for both stations 50
16. Drought magnitude and intensity during Kiremt season on 3 month time scale at Hosanna
station. 51
17. Drought magnitude and intensity during Kiremt season on 3- month time scale at Fonko
station. 52
18. Mann-Kendall trend test / Two-tailed test for considered stations 53

ix
19. Probability distribution of dry and wet spells in Kiremt during the initial growth stage of
wheat at Hosanna station 56
20. Probability distribution of dry and wet spells in Kiremt season during the development
stage of wheat at Hosanna station 56
21. Probability distribution of dry and wet spells in Kiremt season during mid growth stage of
wheat at Hosanna station 56
22. Probability distribution of dry and wet spells in Kiremt season during late growth 56
23. Probability distribution of dry and wet spells in Kiremt during the initial growth stage of
wheat at Fonko station 57
24. Probability distribution of dry and wet spells in Kiremt season during the development
stage of wheat at Fonko station 57
25. Probability distribution of dry and wet spells in Kiremt season during mid-growth stage of
wheat at Fonko station 57
26. Probability distribution of dry and wet spells in Kiremt season during late growth stage of
wheat at Fonko station 57
27. Onset, Cessation and Length of growing period of Wheat crop, Fonko station 59
28. Onset, Cessation and Length of growing period of Wheat crop, Hossana station 60
29. Estimated crop water requirement of Wheat crop 61
30. Calculated Kc value for Wheat crop for growing stage 61

x
 LIST OF FIGURES

Figure page

1. Interrelationship between the different types of drought WMO (2006) 8

2. Sequence of drought occurrence and resulting impacts for commonly accepted 10
3. Location map of the study area (GIS 10.1) 26
4. Location of the meteorological stations in the study area 27
5. Standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT) (Total) graph of Fonko station rainfall 39
6. Standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT) (Total) graph of Hosanna station rainfall 39
7. Double mass curve for the considered stations 40
8. Distribution of monthly rainfall at Hossana station (1987-2016) 45
9. Distribution of monthly rainfall at Fonko station (1987-2016) 46
10. Plots of annual rainfall (mm) at Hosanna station from 1987-2016 53
11. Plots of annual rainfall (mm) at Fonko station from 1987-2016 54

xi
 LIST OF TABLES IN APPENDEXI

Appendix Table page

1. Standard meteorological decade 79

2. Monthly decadal Rainfall of Fonko 1987 - 2001(mm) 80
3. Monthly decadal Rainfall of Fonko 2002-2016 (mm) 81
4. Monthly RF of Fonko station from 1987-2016(mm) 82
5. Monthly maximum temperature of Fonko station( oc) 84
6. Monthly minimum temperature of Fonko station(oc) 85
7. Fonko station Estimated ETo (mm/month) - Hargreaves method 86
8. Monthly decadal Rainfall of Hosanna 1987-2001(mm) 87
9. Monthly decadal Rainfall of Hosanna 2002 - 2016 (mm) 89
10. Hosanna station monthly maximum temperature(oc) 90
11. Monthly RF of Hosanna station from 1987 - 2016(mm) 91
12. Hosanna station monthly minimum temperature(oc) 93
13. Hosanna station Estimated ETo (mm/month) - Hargreaves method. 94
14. Probability distribution of dry and wet spells in Kiremt during the growth stage of wheat
at Hosanna station. 95
15. Probability distribution of dry and wet spells in Kiremt during the growth stage of wheat
at Fonko station 96
16. Frequency of occurrence of drought events during Belg and kiremt season based on 1-
month time-scales at Hosanna station 96
17. Frequency of occurrence of drought events during Belg and kiremt season based on 3-,6-
month time-scales at Hosanna station 98
18. Frequency of occurrence of drought events during Belg and kiremt season based on 1-
month time-scales at Fonko station 99
19. Frequency of occurrence of drought events during Belg and kiremt season based on 3-,6-
month time-scales at Fonko station 100
20. Initial and conditional probability of both station 101

xii
Assessment of Onset, Cessation and Drought Events for Rainfed Wheat

(Triticum Aestivum Ssp.) Production: The Case of Misha Woreda, SNNPR,

Ethiopia

ABSTRACT

Agriculture in Ethiopia is heavily dependent on rainfall. However,the rainfall is highly varying

spatially and temporally affecting cropping calendar and productivity. Drought has a great
impact on agricultural, hydrological, economic,environmental and social systems.The existenc
e of long dry spells has been the leading challenge of agricultural productivity and hydrologic
al balance for decades in the country in general and southern region in particular. Therefore,
assessment of rainfall characteristics and drought event in the southern regionof Ethiopia has
got a special attention currently.This paper examined the onset and cessation dates of the rainy
season over Misha woreda using rain gauge data from NMA over the period of 1987-2016.
In addition, the inter annual variability of the onset and cessation dates for each climatic zone
was assessed using Instat softwareversion 3.37.The onset and cessation dates were identified
by using water balance techniques for two stations in Misha Woreda. To analyze the trend of
rainfall, the widely used modified Mann-Kendall test was run at 5% significance level on time
series data for each of the stations for the time period,1987to2016.The standardized precipit
ation index (SPI) was used to estimate drought events. According to the result, the average on
set and cessation of rainfall were April 23 and October 30 at Fonko while April 14 and Nove
mber 1 at Hosanna respectively. Different models like FAO (1978) and Reddy (1990) were
used to analyze the onset, end and length of growing periods for ideal crop. Mean while, the
growing periods were characterized for some selected crop,commonly grown in the study are
as.Furthermore Markov Chain Model was used to assess the distribution of dry and wet spells
inthe area.The result of crop water requirement of wheat showed that it doesn’t vary by plant
ing date in the study area and the total water requirement ranged between 483.6 mm and 512.
2 mm during the growing season.The assessment of different indices and using advanced tools
, betterunderstanding and better response can be generated to mitigate the impacts. The result
s of analysis obtained both from the Markov Chain model and Reddy indicated higher probab
ilities of dry spell occurrences during Belg. Results of analysis of drought in the area revealed
that during both Kiremt and Belg seasons relatively higher f requency occurrence of moderat
e drought event followed by severe drought event was found to occur at both stations and time
scales except for some deviations. Moreover, both stations were found to experience all drou
ght severity levels and respond differently to the 1, 3 and 6 month time scales in different man
ner. Since, dry events are found to be more probable than wet spell events for belg season so
that for a given crop allocation of supplemental irrigation, particularly at critical growing sta
ges is crucial and implementing water conservation measures such as mulching and other
moisture conservation practices to reduce soil evaporation and conserve moisture in the soil
is necessary as well.

Key words: Rainfall variability, Dry spells, Drought, SPI, Rainfed agriculture.

xiii
 1. INTODUCTION

Climate variability has always been identified as a challenge for African farmers. Specifically,
it is a challenge to access climate information relevant to agricultural activities that enable the
farmers to make prior decision about which crops to plant, where and when, would increase
the ability of agricultural sector to make informed decision (Wood et al., 2014). Climate chan
ge could result in a variety of impacts on agriculture, both adverse and beneficial. Some of the
se effects are biophysical, some are ecological, and some others are economic, including
changes in production patterns due to the changing temperatures and precipitation patterns.
Since climatic factors serve as direct inputs to agriculture, any change in climatic factors is
enchained to have a significant impact on crop yields and production (Asha et al., 2012) and
sustainable agriculture is about climate resilient cropping, as well as soil and water manageme
nt systems that reduce climate related risks for smallholder farmers and raise the natural resou
rce base (ATA, 2014). The effects of climate change on agriculture and other natural resource
s may vary across agro-ecological regions and within agriculture it is the rainfed agriculture
that will be most impacted by climate change (Singh, 2015).

In Ethiopia, rainfed agriculture is the primary source of food production. As a result, the vario
us impacts of climate change and variabilities, such as unpredictable rains, droughts, and floo
ds, often overweigh the livelihood smallholder farmers of the country (ATA, 2014).Timely pr
eparedness and adaptation to climate change are needed, not only to tap emerging opportuniti
es; but also to reduce the unfavorable impacts of climate change in all sectors of the economy
in general and agriculture, livestock, forest and water resources in particular (Hussain, 2013).

Studies in Ethiopia have shown that rainfall variability, unreliable occurrences insufficient
amount and delay in onset dates contribute to declining in crop yields with the reasonable
amount in almost all parts of the country. Recent studies reported that Agricultural sector is
still contributing more than 50% to GDP and about 60% to foreign exchange income and
provides livelihood to more than 85% of the population (Admassie et al., 2016). However,
yields from rainfed agriculture are often very low due to the continual failure of crop yield
associated with irregularity in onset, temporal and spatial distribution of rain in most parts of
the region during the growing season (Bruijnzeel, 2004).
 2

Precipitation and temperature are two of the most important variables in the field of climate
sciences and hydrology frequently used to trace extent and magnitude of climate change and
variability (Cayan et al., 2016). Granados et al. (2017) stressed that in countries where their
economy is heavily dependent on low productivity rainfed agriculture, rainfall trends and vari
ability is frequently mentioned factors in explaining various socioeconomic problems such as
food insecurity. As a result, studying the spatio temporal dynamics of these meteorological va
riables is very important so as to provide input for policy makers and practitioners that help to
make informed decisions.

Asfaw et al. (2018) pointed out that since agricultural calendars in most parts of Africa are
closely connected to the timing of local rainfall, improved forecasts of rainy season onset and
termination would greatly benefit particularly for smallholder farmers. The implication here is
therefore, quantification of climate change is necessary in order to detect the change that has
already occurred and this will be further helpful to make predictions and for better awareness.

According to Abbas et al. (2018) trend analysis of climatic variables has received a great deal
of consideration from scholars recently. Characterization of the intra and inter-annual spatio-
temporal trend of meteorological variables in the context of a changing climate is vital to asse
ss climate induced changes and suggest feasible adaptation strategies and agricultural practice
s. The long term climatic change related to changes in precipitation patterns, rainfall variabilit
y, and temperature is most likely to increase the frequency of droughts and floods in Ethiopia.
In terms of rainfall occurrence, there are three seasons in Ethiopia, namely bega (dry season)
which extends from October to January, belg (short rainy season) which extends from Februar
y to May and kiremt or meher (long rainy season) which occurs from June to September (Kel
bore, and Zarihun.G, 2012). Rainfall in the short rainy season (belg) is caused by moist easterl
y and south easterly winds from the Indian Ocean, while in the main rainy season (kiremt) is a
result of convergence in low pressure systems and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (Danie
l, 2011; Tabari et al., 2015). Rainfall is the basic component in the hydrological cycle which

plays an important role in sustaining lives and all creatures depend on water. The definition of
rainy season onset/cessation is useful (Boyard et al., 2013).
 3

Rainfall variability has historically been found as a major cause of food insecurity and famine
in the country (Bekele et al., 2017). Often rainfall is the only climatic index that has primarily
been mentioned for the purpose of rainfall yield relationship analysis (Lemi, 2005). For exam
ple, previous studies (Bekele et al., 2017) have shown that one of the major causes for low
productivity of the agricultural sector is climate related risks. Climate related risks such as
drought, water logging, and erratic rainfall are the main causes for crop failure (Bessie, 2010).

Due to this fact, effective management of these factors are necessary and used to estimate the
probability of such unfavorable situation and to minimize the consequences (Raorane, 2012).
Agricultural sector is a pillar for the economy of Ethiopia (MOFED, 2006, MOA, 2010). This
sector, mostly rainfed by its nature, is highly sensitive to climate variability (NMA, 2007).

According to World Bank (2006) report, close linkage between climate and Ethiopian econom
y is demonstrated by close pattern of rainfall variability and GDP growth. The trends in the
contribution of agriculture to the countries total GDP clearly explain the presence of strong
relationship between the performance of agriculture and climatic conditions. Most of the stud
y revealed that agricultural sectors of the country had been highly affected by climate related
hazards (Deressa, 2007). Annual as well as seasonal crop yield variations in Ethiopia can be
partly explained by rainfall patterns.

IPCC (2014) defined drought as being a prolonged absence of precipitations or a large deficit
of those, a deficit of precipitations which leads to water scarcity for an activity of time abnor
mally dry through the lack of precipitations and long enough to cause a serious hydrological i
mbalance. According to McGregor et al.(2011) drought is a natural phenomenon which appea
rs when precipitation present values below normal leading to hydrological imbalances which
affect in a negative way the production of the land systems. Because the average values of pre
cipitations present spatial variations, drought definition must be reported to the studied area
characteristics.

According to Tsakiris et al.(2013) drought as being a recurrent phenomenon which affects

natural ecosystems as well as other economic and social sectors. Pereira et al. (2007) defined
drought as being a temporary natural imbalance of available water resources due to apersistent
period with precipitations volumes below normal, with uncertain frequency, length and severi
 4

ty, phenomenon which can’t be or hardly be forecasted and which results in a diminishing of
available water resources and of ecosystems capacity of support.

In recent time, increasing climate variabilities such as rising temperature and erratic rainfall
is critical problem of crop production. The main hazard in this livelihood is the shortage of
water, which arises from inadequate rainfall, dry spells and early cessation of rains during crit
ical crop growth and seed setting periods have a negative impact on harvest and the resultant
water shortage has led to the substantial decline in agricultural productivity. A good understan
ding of seasonal variability patterns is of critical importance because of the highly unstable
onset of the rainy season and the high frequency of dry spells (Traore, 2013). Therefore studyi
ng the onset and cessation of rainfall is a key to the farmers and stakeholders to be affected by
the shortage of rain. Previous studies in many parts of Ethiopia emphasized on analysis of
trends in annual and seasonal rainfall totals (Mekasha et al., 2014) disregarding intra-seasonal
rainfall variability such as timing of season start date and season end date, number of rainy
and dry days, dry spells at different lengths and other vital aspects of rainfall variability for
agricultural planning.

This study is designed with a general objective to investigate the effect of annual and intra-
seasonal variation in rainfall on a wheat crop performance and quantify their relation in Misha
woreda, Hadiya zone of SNNPR.
Specific objectives
 To determine wheat growing periods in Misha woreda, Hadiya Zone of SNNPR.
 To characterize dry and wet spells and identify the rainfall potential to meet rainfed
wheat crop water demand in Misha woreda.
 To estimate meteorological drought in the study area
 5

2. LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1. Ethiopian Rainfall Seasons and Associated Systems

2.1.1. Seasonal classification

Agriculture is an important part of any agriculture dependent economy of the nation. However
, the agricultural sector is vulnerable to growing season moisture conditions because most cro
ps grown in most of the countries particularly in the developing countries is rainfed and the
weather conditions are extremely variable. This vulnerability is underlined by the recent sever
e and continual droughts that occurred, and resulted in the loss of life and billions of dollars to
the agricultural sector (Phillips, 2003). Annual rainfall characteristics of Ethiopia are classifie
d into three rainy seasons as documented by many authors (Gissila et al., 2004; Segele and
Lamb, 2005; Korecha and Barns, 2007). These distinct seasons are; the dry (October - January
), the small rainy (February - May), and the main rainy (June - September) seasons. The seaso
ns are locally defined as Bega (October - January), Belg (March - May), and Kiremt (June - Se
ptember). Evapotranspiration (ET) plays a critical role in ecological and hydrological process
es and influences local weather and climate (Sun et al., 2001; Huizhi and Jianwu, 2012) and
also has great importance in agriculture (Ishak et al., 2010). Accurate and timely estimates of
ETO are essential for agricultural and water resource planning as well as for understanding the
impacts of climate variability on terrestrial systems (Wodaje, 2017).

Rainfall variability receives higher attention among other climatic elements especially in relati
on to agriculture. The variability in rainfall can be explained either temporally or spatially or
both depending on the purpose needed (Song et al., 2014). Precipitation distributions over tro
pical East Africa exhibit noticeable regional variations, and the seasonal cycle is complicated
(Cook and Vizy, 2012). Rainfall and evapotranspiration are two major climatic factors affecti
ng agricultural production (Tilahun, 2006), and agricultural water resources face two major
problems. One is the lack of available water supply in rainfed agriculture, and the loss of avail
able water through evapotranspiration (Wriedt et al., 2009; Derbile, 2013; Mou et al., 2014).

Droughts are apparent after a long period without precipitation and the main natural causes of
agricultural, economic and environmental damage. Determining the onset, extent and end of
 6

the drought and objectively quantifying its characteristics in terms of intensity, magnitude, du
ration and spatial extent is difficult (Vicente et al., 2010). Evapotranspiration (ET) is an impor
tant hydrological process and its estimation is needed for many applications in different discip
lines such as agriculture, hydrology, and meteorology (Falk et al., 2014).

Rainfed agriculture, on which the Ethiopian economy rests, has been the dominant sources of
food production. Recent studies reported that this sector is still contributing more than 50% to
GDP and about 60% to foreign exchange earnings and provides livelihood 5 to more than
85% of the population (Deressa et al., 2011). According to the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC, 2014) there is significant warming occurring in the Sub Saharan Afric
an countries. Whilst this warming is not uniform throughout the region, there is an observed
increase in the number of warm spells and a decrease in extremely cold days. This has major
implications for the agricultural sector, and will be critical for developing adaptive strategies
to overcome this problem. Climate risk is a characteristic feature of Ethiopian agriculture, part
icularly in drought inclined areas.

2.2. Agriculture and Drought in Ethiopia

Agriculture is the mainstay of Ethiopian economy, which contributes for about 49% of Ethiop
ian GDP (Gross Domestic Product), generates more than 80% of the foreign exchange, and
employs about 80% of the population (CSA, 2014). Even though the high contribution to the
overall economy, agriculture in Ethiopia is challenged by many organizational, climatic and
edaphic factors of which climate related catastrophes such as drought, floods and irregularities
in seasonal rainfall amount and distributions are the major ones (Jaewon et al., 2015).

Climate variability plays an important role in year-to- year variability in crop production and
on the overall economy of the nation (Ngetich et al., 2014). Vulnerability of crop production
to climate variability and changes can be decreased with crop specific climate information and
use of such information in crop management decisions. As the Ethiopia largely depends on
rainfed agriculture, frequent drought events result in severe economic losses, affects GDP gro
wth, crop failure and severe impacts on livestock.
 7

According to Viste et al. (2013) many farms have shifted to more drought resistant crops in
northern Ethiopia, as a consequence of the decline in rainfall during the past few decades. The
drought is considered as a major natural hazard, affecting several sectors of the economy and
the environment worldwide. It affects almost all the determinants of the hydrological cycle
starting from precipitation and ending with stream flow in the surface water systems or the
recharge and storage in the groundwater aquifers. Therefore, the determinant to be chosen dep
ends upon which part of the hydrological cycle we are interested to focus our analysis (Tsakiri
s et al., 2013).

2.2.1. Definition and concepts of drought

Drought is a slowly developing phenomenon which affects large areas and populations, and
propagates through the full hydrological cycle, with possible long- term economic and enviro
nmental impacts (Vogt et al., 2011). It is a natural phenomenon that occurs in all climates,
and is one of the most relevant natural hazards that results in significant economic, social, and
environmental costs (Vogt and Somma, 2000). Though prolonged droughts can adoptive land
degradation in arid and semi arid areas, with possible irreversible damage to ecosystems (Win
slow et al., 2011), drought is a temporary condition as it is basically a temporary decrease in n
atural water availability. Due to its complexity, there is no single definition of drought,
and meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomic droughts are often importa
nt (Mishra and Singh, 2010).

However, a meteorological drought (i.e. a prolonged rainfall deficit) is the primary cause of a
drought, while the other types of drought secondary effects on specific ecological and econom
ic compartments (e.g. soil moisture, river flows, reservoirs, and economic sectors). In this stud
y, we therefore focus on meteorological drought, which can be seen as a prolonged deficit
in precipitation over a defined region and period of time as compared to average climatologic
al values: the longer and the more spatially extensive the lack of precipitation, the more likely
it is that different types of droughts will occur. Precipitation provides a direct measurement of
water supply conditions over different time scales, and several commonly used drought
indicators rely on precipitation measurements only or on simplified water balance models that
include evapotranspiration (Vicenteserrano, 2010). As this study deals with meteorological
 8

drought events, it is based on meteorological drought indicators such as the Standardized

Precipitation Index (SPI, McKee et al., 1993). In the absence or prolonged reduction of precip
itation, a meteorological drought can develop quickly and sometimes abruptly. The consequen
ces of repeated drought events include, for example, decreased agricultural production, inadeq
uate public water supplies, reduced energy production, permanent land degradation, and deser
tification (Wilhite et al., 2007).

Third, a hydrological drought is characterized by a shortage of water in surface or undergroun

d water resources (Tabari et al., 2013) it can be visible through dried up rivers and lakes.
Finally, a socioeconomic drought is apparent when the supply of good water does not meet
the demand (Wondie and Terefe, 2016). The inter relationship between different types of
droughts has been indicated in Figure 1 provided by WMO (2006).

Decreasing emphasis on the natural events (precipitation deficiencies)

Increasing emphasis on water/natural resource management increasing complexity of impacts
and conflicts

Agricultural
Meteorological Hydrological

Socio-economic and political

Time/ duration of the events

Figure 1. Interrelationship between the different types of drought WMO (2006)

 9

2.2.2. Types of drought

Drought was classified by many authors (Maliva and Missimer 2012) but several types of dro
ught were undiversified agreed: meteorological drought, hydrological drought and agricultural
drought. Beside these were also classified: socio economic drought, atmospheric drought, cli
matological drought, water management drought, agro meteorological drought, hydro geologi
cal drought, operational drought and ecological drought. If in the case of researchers we can
emphasize some direction in drought study, analyze and definition, the study of this phenome
non basing on common people opinions is a challenge.

Meteorological drought: Meteorological drought is the most advance express event in the
process of occurrence and progression of drought. Rainfall is the primary driver of meteorolo
gical drought (Nunez et al., 2014). Meteorological (sometimes referred to as climatological)
droughts are simply defined as a shortfall of precipitation, over a period of time. Meteorologic
al drought is usually measured by how far from normal the precipitation has been occurred
over some period of time. To determine the strength, duration and occurrence of droughts,
there is a large number of quantitative indicators i.e. indices of drought. According to the reco
mmendation of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), all national meteorological
and hydrological services should use the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (WMO
2012).

Agricultural drought: Agricultural droughts link the characteristics of both meteorological

and hydrological droughts. The term drought is used widely in agriculture too; it has tradition
ally been accepted that a given area is affected by agricultural drought when the soil moisture
availability to plants has dropped to such a level (threshold level) that it is insufficient for nor
mal crop growth and maturation and adversely affects the crop yield. In brief, the definition of
agricultural drought is however around the soil moisture deficiency in relation to meteorologi
cal droughts , limatic factors and their impacts on agricultural production (Potop et al.,2012).

Hydrological drought: Hydrological drought refers to deficiencies in surface and subsurface

water supplies. It is measured as stream flow, lake, reservoir and ground water levels. There is
a time lag between the lack of rain and less water in streams, rivers, lakes and reservoirs. Whe
 10

n precipitation is reduced or deficient over an extended period of time, this shortage will be
reflected in surface and subsurface water levels (Adeba et al., 2015).

Socio-economic drought: The socioeconomic drought which is associated with the failure of
water resources systems to meet the water demands and thus, associating droughts with suppl
y of and demand for an economic good (water). The first three categories are referred as envir
onmental droughts and the socio economic drought is considered as water resources systems d
roughts (Mishra and Singh, 2010). Schematically the relationship between the different types
of droughts is shown below (Figure2).

Natural Climate Variability

Meteo
Precipitation deficiency(amount, High temp.,highwinds, low rologi
intensity ,timing) relative humidity,greater cal
sunshine,less cloud cover Droug
ht

Reduce infilitration,runoff,deep
Increased evapotranspiration
percolation,and ground water
and transpiration
recharge

Tim
e/
dur Soil water deficiency
atio
n
Agricult
Plant water stress, ural
reduced biomass Drought
and yield

Reduced stream flow, Hydrologi

Inflow to reservoirs, cal
lakes, and ponds: reduce wet lands, Drought
wild life habitat

Economic Impacts
Social Impacts Environmental Impacts

Figure 2. Sequence of drought occurrence and resulting impacts for commonly accepted
drought types (Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska–Lincoln,
USA, 1995).
 11

All droughts originate from a precipitation deficiency. Other drought types and impacts casca
de from this deficiency.

2.2.3. Impact of drought

The impact of drought on water resources is also evident, particularly in the most populated
area (the Great Rift Valley and the central Ethiopian highlands), where access to water supplie
s is limited (ElKenawy et al., 2016). Even though some of the earlier studies (Zeleke et al.,
2013; Birhanu et al., 2014) have assessed drought variability in Ethiopia, spatial and temporal
variability of drought was not understood, especially at regional and sub-regional scales.

Climate variability and its associated impacts induce frequent crop failures, and a decline in
livestock production and productivity leading to aggravated rural poverty in the region. It also
indirectly affects the agricultural production by influencing the emergence and distribution of
crop pests, livestock diseases, aggravating the frequency and distribution of adverse weather
conditions, reducing water supplies and enhancing the severity of soil erosion (Tirado et al.,
2010). Scientific evidence suggest that higher temperatures and changing precipitation levels
as a result of the changing climate will further depress agricultural production in many arid
and semi-arid parts of Ethiopia over the coming decades (Mintiwab et al., 2010).

The rise in temperature is already affecting crop growth rate that is accelerated due to increase
d temperature, which reduces the window of opportunity for photosynthesis since the life cycl
e is short. In other words, the effect increased temperature depends on the net result of the
effect on photosynthetic rates of leaves and of the effect on the rate of crop development and s
enescence, while both heat and drought stress may also inhibit growth directly at the metaboli
c level (Matthew, 2010). Furthermore, harvest index may be reduced if reproductive processes
are impaired by stress that occurs at critical developmental stages (Matthew, 2010).

For wheat, the rising temperature leads to a rapid accumulation of Growing Degree Days (GD
D); hence, growth and development of the crop are faster, resulting in a reduction of phenoph
ase duration (Gupta, 2016). The number of wheat tillers decreases in response to high tempera
tures, especially high night time temperatures. In such conditions, shoot elongation is promote
d but there are more immature grains and decreased yields because of dark respiration. Moreo
 12

ver, unusually panicle initiation caused by warm winters can increase the risk of frost damage
(WMO, 2010;Masahumi et al., 2011).This is also a characteristic feature of the South and Cen
tral part of Ethiopia (Funk et al.,2012; Kassie et al., 2014).

2.3. Cause of Rainfall Variability in Ethiopia

The rainfall is highly variable both in amount and distribution across regions and seasons
(Viste et al., 2013). The seasonal and annual rainfall variations are the results of the macro-
scale pressure systems and moisture flows which are related to the changes in the pressure
systems. The most important weather systems that cause rain over Ethiopia include Subtropic
al Jet (STJ), Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Red Sea Convergence Zone (RSCZ),
Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) and Somalia Jet (Meresa, 2010). The spatial variation of the rainfa
ll is, thus, influenced by the changes in the intensity position, and direction of movement of
these rains producing systems over the country. Moreover, the spatial distribution of rainfall
in Ethiopia is significantly influenced by topography which also has many abrupt changes in
the Rift Valley.

2.4. Impact of Rainfall Variability on Agricultural in Ethiopia

According to Bekele et al.(2017) most of the time agricultural planning in Ethiopia is difficult
during the small rainy season due to the erratic nature of the rains. Studies in Ethiopia have
shown that rainfall variability usually results in a reduction of 20% production and 25% rise
in poverty rates in the country. Moreover, 10% of the decrease in seasonal rainfall from the
long term average generally translates into a 4.4% decrease in the county’s food production.
Rainfall in much of the country is erratic and variable and the associated drought has historica
lly been the major cause of food shortage and famine (Bekele, 2015). The recorded famine in
Ethiopia in 1973 and 1984 mainly had been due to severe drought and hence caused crop
damage and decline of food availability in the country (Nega, 2000).

2.5. Effects of Climate Change on Wheat Production

In agricultural terms, the climate change study is to assess the effect of increasing CO2, minim
um and maximum temperature as well as water availability such as rainfall during crop growi
 13

ng season (Matthew, 2010; Mesfin and Tekalign, 2011; Gerba, et al., 2013; Valizadeh et al.,
2013; IPCC, 2014).

The World Meteorological Organization Commission for climatology has recommended to ad

opt 30 years baseline to notice a significant change in climate studies that scientists and meteo
rological services use to monitor the weather and climate, and make comparisons to past and
future conditions (WMO, 2014). Temperature and CO2 influence plant growth and developme
nt through their effects on stomata opening and the rate of physiological processes. Higher
temperatures speed up the biochemical reactions and also increase transpiration losses. Stomat
a conductance declines with increasing CO2 concentration in a crop which fixes and reduce in
organic CO2 into organic compounds. This looks to benefit more in terms of dry matter produ
ction from a higher CO2 level, due to higher leaf expansion, an increase in the photosynthetic
rate per unit area, increase in water use efficiency and increase in photorespiration rates (Faro
oq et al., 2011). The doubling of CO2 concentration increases the photosynthetic rate of leave
s by 25-50%. This stimulates canopy leaf formation, thereby increasing light preventing. This
adds up to the increase in photosynthetic yielding an increase in plant productivity up to 30-
60% (Long et al., 2004).

Wheat environmental requirements are shifting due to climate change in different areas of
production (Ibrahim et al., 2012; Valizadeh et al., 2013). Wheat is tetraploid specie and traditi
onally grown on heavy black clay soils (Vertisols) of the central and northern highlands of
Ethiopia between 1800-2800 m.a.s.l (MoA, 2010, 2011).

In Ethiopia, wheat (Triticum turgidum. spp.) is cultivated on 2 million hectares under rain fed
agriculture by smallholder farmers. It is an economically important industrial crop for the man
ufacturing of pasta. Some of the food recipes are Ethiopian bread, boiled grain, roasted grain,
and loosely crushed kernels cooked with milk or water and mixed with spiced butter (DZARC
, 2014; Kassahum et al., 2014).

2.6. Drought Indices to Characterize Dry and Wet Spells

Monitoring and analysis of drought is based on the given threshold for forecasting precipitatio
n deficit over specified period of time different climate based drought and vegetation indices
 14

are available (ElKenawy et al., 2016). Some of them are Standardized Precipitation Index
(SPI), Palmer Drought Severely Index (PDSI), Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI),
Percent of Normal (PON), Cray Moisture Index (CMI), Reclamation Drought Index (RDI),
Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) etc. In all these indices, precipitation is the co
mmon climate variables for drought monitoring and assessment. Among the several proposed
indices for drought monitoring, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) has found the gene
ral application (McKee et al., 1993; Wilhite et al., 2000; Rossi and Cancelliere, 2002).

Zargar et al. (2011) compared SPI with other drought monitoring indices mentioned above the
SPI has advantages of statistical consistency and the ability to describe both short-term and
long-term drought impacts through the different time scales of precipitation anomalies. Also,
due to its basic probabilistic nature, the SPI is the ideal runner for carrying out drought risk
analysis (Blauhut et al., 2016). Rainfall is the key climate variable that determines the duratio
n, magnitude and intensity of droughts.

Standardized precipitation index (SPI)

A drought index is typically a single number, far more useful than raw data for decision
making. The National Drought Mitigation Center is using a new index, the Standardized Preci
pitation Index (SPI), to monitor moisture supply conditions. The preparation and planning to
manage with opposing impacts of a drought event depend on the information about its areal
extent, severity and duration. This information can be obtained through drought monitoring an
d forecasting that is usually done using drought indices which provide quantitative informatio
n to decision makers about drought characteristics (Dogan et al., 2012).

The standardized precipitation index is a tool developed by Paulo and Luis, (2007) for the pur
pose of defining and monitoring local droughts, at multiple time scales. It is simply computed
by dividing the difference between the normalized seasonal precipitation and its long-term
seasonal mean by the standard deviation (Svoboda and Brian (2016). Where the mean and sta
ndard deviation are determined from past records and the transformed standard deviate is the
SPI for the given precipitation total (Kim et al., 2006). Shorter or longer time scales may
reflect lags in the response of different water resources to precipitation anomalies.
 15

A drought occurs any time if the SPI is continuously negative and reaches intensity where the
SPI is -1.0 or less. The event ends when the SPI becomes positive. Each drought event,
therefore, has a duration defined by its beginning and end and a concentration for each month
that the event continues. It is an index based on the probability of recording a given amount
of precipitation which can be calculated for any location that has a long-term precipitation
record. The precipitation record fits with a probability density function which is a standard
distribution for frequency analysis of annual maximum rainfall events and has got also wide
application in the analysis of rainfall intensities (Adeboye and Alatise, 2007) and subsequentl
y transformed using an inverse normal.

This ensures that the mean SPI value for any given location and duration is zero which
indicates the median precipitation amount (half of the historical precipitation amounts are
below the median and half are above the median) and the variance is one. Positive values of
the SPI indicate greater than median precipitation, while negative values indicate less than
median precipitation. An SPI value of less than -1 indicates that a drought event is taking
place and drought intensity can be calculated by summing the SPI values for all months
within a drought event and divided by the duration (McKee et al., 1993, 1995).

Hayes et al. (1999) used the standardized precipitation index (SPI) to monitor the 1996
drought in the United States of America. They show how the SPI can be used operationally to
detect the start of a drought, its spatial extent and temporal progression and the SPI requires di
fferent interpretations according to its time scale. For example, the 1 month SPI reflects short
term conditions and its applications can be related closely to soil moisture; the 3-month SPI
provides a seasonal estimation of precipitation; the 6 and 9 month SPI indicate medium term t
rends in precipitation patterns, usually tied to stream flows, reservoir levels and even ground
water levels (NDMC, 2007).

In addition, the SPI is consistent with regard to the spatial distribution of rainfall that occurs
with great variability in South Africa due to geographical location, orography and the influenc
e of the oceans. Precipitation associated with droughts in one area or one season corresponds
to flood in other areas or another season, the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall make
it difficult to represent a coherent picture (Pietersen et al., 2013) but SPI addresses those
 16

problems because it is normalized in time and in space that means SPI is consistent with
regard to the spatial distribution of rainfall that occurs with great variability due to geographic
al location, orography and the influence of the oceans. For operational use, caution must be
used when using the SPI in summer months when a flood can create a high SPI index. Hayes
et al. (1999) have shown that for some regions a good rainfall for one month can create the
impression that the drought is over but until the SPIs are not above a certain value at all scales
(typically -1) a drought will still affect a region one way or another.

According to Pietersen et al. (2013), the 3-month SPI can be used to look at the beginning or
the end of the rainy season and can also be used to monitor soil moisture conditions at the
start of the growing season or precipitation during the different stages of plant development or
reproduction. The 3 month and 6 month SPI may be misleading in regions where it normally
dry during a 6 month period. For instance, the 6month SPI at the end of a given month resemb
les the 3-month SPI. During the dry season large negative or positive SPIs may be associated
with precipitation totals not very different from the mean.

Another interesting point is that the SPI responds quickly to wet and dry periods, which
means that each new month has a large influence on the period sum of precipitation. This also
means more droughts of shorter duration. The SPI’s unique characteristic and a wide spectru
m of time scales make it more flexible for either short-term or long-term drought monitoring
and it is used for monitoring operationally any location with a 30-year or above time series. In
addition, the specification of a time scale in the definition of drought means that drought
beginning; concentration, duration, scale and ending are all dependent on a time scale and can
be addressed by the SPI (McKee et al., 1993).

Therefore, SPI values from very short time scales (1 to 2 weeks) to long time scales (48 to 52
weeks) more accurately reflect the amount, intensity, timing and distribution of precipitation,
which are very important to crop growth. Furthermore, the flexible time scales of the SPI mak
es it easier to compute the index in order to match a crop’s phonological cycle while providin
g the moisture supply status along with a crop’s growth stages. A common time scale for agric
ultural droughts is the season (3 to 6 month time scales) when a deficiency in precipitation
results in damage to crop (Pandey, 2016).
 17

Belayneh and Adamowski. 2012. Assessed drought severity in the Awash River Basin at
different time scales (3-, 6- and -12-months) based on meteorological information using SPI.
A 3-month SPI reflects short- and medium-term moisture conditions and provides a seasonal
estimation of precipitation. The 6-month SPI indicates medium-term trends in the precipitatio
n and can be very effective showing the precipitation over distinct seasons. Information from
a 6-month SPI may also begin to be associated with inconsistent stream flow and reservoir
conditions and the SPI at 12-month time scale reflect long-term precipitation patterns.

Many recent researchers have shown that the SPI has many advantages over other indices
such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). It is relatively simple (it is based only on
precipitation), spatially consistent (because of normal distribution of SPI, the frequencies of
the extreme and severe drought classifications for any location and time scale are consistent),
it is not adversely affected by topography and temporally flexible (it can be calculated on any
time scale). Therefore, the SPI attain the capability to monitor conditions important for both
agricultural (short term water supplies, such as soil moisture) and hydrological applications (l
onger term water resources, such as ground water supplies, lake and reservoir levels), thus all
owing observation of water deficits at different scales (Wilhite, 2011).

According to Hong et al. (2015) for small time scales of 3-month, each new month has a large
impact on the period sum of precipitation, so it is relatively easy to have the SPI respond
quickly and move from dry to wet values or vice versa. As time scale becomes larger each
new month has less impact on the total (almost linear with time scale) and the index responds
more slowly which leads to fewer droughts of longer duration. The disadvantage of this
simple model is that precipitation is typically not normally distributed for accumulation
periods of 12 months (48 weeks) or less, but this can be overcome by applying a transformatio
n to the normal distribution. The resulting (the normalized) computation of SPI is linearly
proportional to precipitation deficit and allows specification of probability, percent of average
and accumulated precipitation deficit.

According to McKee et al. (1993) for small time scales of 3-month, each new month has a
large impact on the period sum of precipitation, so it is relatively easy to have the SPI respond
quickly and move from dry to wet values or vice versa. As time scale becomes larger each
 18

new month has less impact on the total (almost linear with time scale) and the index responds
more slowly which leads to fewer droughts of longer duration. The disadvantage of this simpl
e model is that precipitation is typically not normally distributed for accumulation periods of
12 months (48 weeks) or less, but this can be overcome by applying a transformation to the no
rmal distribution. The resulting (the normalized) computation of SPI is linearly proportional
to precipitation deficit and allows specification of probability, percent of average and accumul
ated precipitation deficit.

2.7. Estimation of Rainfall Probabilities by Markov Chain Model

This method of data analysis is called the direct method (Stern et al., 2006). This approach by
making use of statistical models summarizes a large volume of data as concisely as possible,
by modeling daily rainfall using Markov chains. Various people have used the Markov proces
ses for modeling rainfall and have got very useful results. The indirect method enables fitting
of Markov chain models of different orders into the probability of occurrence of rain and
mean rain per rain days. Computation of probability of the rains is useful in distribution of
rainfall in time. Studies did in different parts of the world show that the probability of getting
rains at a particular time is dependent on conditions of the previous dates. These kinds of prob
abilities are called conditional. In some places of the world, it is found that the probability of
getting rain on a particular date is dependent on whether some of the previous dates are wet or
dry (Korecha, and Sorteberg, 2013).

The 1st order Markov Chain analysis deals with the computation of chances of rain depending
on whether a previous date was dry or wet. Before dealing with the conditional ones, it is goo
d to show the overall chance of rain which is called initial condition (unconditional probabilit
y). Many decisions have taken based on the probability of receiving a certain amount of rainfa
ll during a given time that is a conditional probability. These initial and conditional probabilit
y’s world helps in determining the relative chance of occurrence of a given amount of rainfall
and the choice of any threshold amount of rainfall depends on the purpose for which the differ
ent probabilities may be computed (Yengoh et al., 2010).
 19

2.8. Number of Rainy Days

According to NMA(2001) based on definition of National Meteorological Service Agency of

Ethiopia, a day is considered as a rainy day if it accumulates 1mm or more rainfall. Thus num
bers of rainy days are determined by counting all days with rainfall ≥1.0 mm as rainy as out
lined.

2.9. Trend Analysis

A trend analysis, non parametric tests are widely used compared to their parametric counter p
arts. When comparing their strength, i.e., their ability to distinguish between the null hypothes
is and an alternative hypothesis, the Mann-Kendall (M-K) tests (Mann 1945; Kendall 1975)
for monotonic trends give better results in comparison to the parametric t - test (Chatterjee et
al., 2016). Non parametric methods have been found to be suitable for data commonly skewed
,and the sample size is large (Collett, 2015). Trend analysis is carried out using the non-
parametric Menn-Kendall’s trend test which is less sensitive to outliers and test for a trend in
a time series without specifying whether the trend is linear or non- linear and the Menn-Kenda
ll’stest statistic is given as(Karpouzos et al, 2010):

n−1 n
S= i=1 j=i+1 sign(xj − xi ) (1)

Where S is the Menn-Kendall’s test statistics; xi and xj are the sequential data values of the
time series in the years i and j (j > i) and N is the length of the time series. A positive S value
indicates an increasing trend and a negative value indicates a decreasing trend in the data
series. The sign function is given as;

+ 1,𝑖𝑓 (xj − xi ) > 0

sign xj − xi = 0, 𝑖𝑓 xj − xi = 0 ( 2)
-1 𝑖𝑓 (xj − xi ) < 0

The variance of S, for the situation when this may be ties (that is equal values) in the x values
is given by:
 20

1 𝑚
Var(S) = 18 N N − 1 2N + 5 − 𝑖=0
ti(ti − 1)(2ti + 5) (3)

where m is the number of tied (ti) groups in the data set and it is the number of data points in
th
the i tied group. When the absolute value of S is small, no trend is indicated the test statistics
can be computed as:

s
τ= n −1 (4)
n( )
2

This is the range of -1 to 1 and is analogous to the correlation coefficient in regression

analysis. The null hypothesis of no trend is rejected when S and 𝛕 are significantly different
from zero. If a significant trend is found the rate, the rate of change can be calculated using
the Sen.’s Slope estimator (Proietti, 2011).

𝐲𝐣 −𝐲𝐢
β1 = media (5)
𝐱𝐣 −𝐱𝐢

For all i<j and i=1…n-1 and j=2 ….n; in other words, computing the slope for all pairs of data
that are used to compute S. The median of those slopes is the sen’s slope estimator.

2.10. Sequential Mann-Kendall Test

Large potential and scientific studies have been carried out up to date to detect and locate
climate changes and trends in different parts of the world by examining and analyzing various
climate key factors such as; air temperature, rainfall records humidity concentration etc. Some
of these studies deal with measurements of temperature time series for specific meteorological
stations due to the importance of its long records, of fluctuating temperature data, location and
reliability (Fan and Thomas. 2013). Sequential values u (t) and u’ (t) from the progressive
analysis of the Mann-Kendall test is determined in order to see change of trend with time
(Partal and Kahya, 2006). U (t) is the good as the z values that are found from the first to last
data point. This test considers the relative values of all terms in the time series (x…xn). The
following steps are applied in sequence. The magnitude of xj annual mean time series,
(j=1…n) are compared with xk, (k…j-1).At each comparison the number of cases xj>xk is
counted and denoted by nj.
 21

The test statistics t is then by equation

n
t= i=1 ni (6)

The mean and variance of the test statistics are

N(N−1)
E ti = (7)
4

N N − 1 (2N + 5)
Var t i = (8)
72

The sequential values of the statistics u (t) are then calculated as

tj − E t
u ti = 9
Var(t i )

A statistic ti can be defined as: ti= Σni. For a large N, ti is normal distributed with mean E (ti)
and variance Var (ti) given by (Pavlic and Brencic. 2012).

2.11. Length of Growing Period

White et al. (2001) described the length of growing period as the time available when weather
and temperature permit plant growth based on estimates of available soil water. The main
concern of an agriculturist is the start, end and length of the rainy season, the distribution of
rainfall amounts throughout the year and the risk of dry spells. These parameters have been
observed to affect the growing season. The assessment and prediction of onset and cessation
dates of the rainy season are a key issue in countries which rely on rainfed agriculture for bett
er explanation of the growing period of a given area (Camberlin and Diop, 2003). Variations
in agricultural production have been related to deviation from normal seasonal climate (i.e.
variation in the length of growing period). A farmer who is involved in a rain fed agricultural
production has to be contended not only with the amount and distribution of rainfall received
annually, but also with the variability in onset, duration and termination of the rainy season
(Connor et al., 2011). The arrival of the first rank is a signal for tremendous farming activities
and the first heavy shower helps to loosen the soil from its hard dry season consistency.
 22

Bekele, (2015) computed the onset, termination and duration of the growing season for northe
rn Nigeria using the water balance method and found that in most of the stations the time serie
s of these parameters are homogenous and random, and can be taken to be normally distribute
d. They also found that there is no statistically significant trend in series of onset dates, but the
re is some evidence for a statistically significant decreasing trend in the termination and the d
uration of the growing season. Soil moisture storage must be considered in determining the L
GP, because the growing period for most crops tends to continue beyond the rainy season (i.e.
LGP greater than 0.5ETO) and crops often mature on soil moisture reserves.

A number of experimental evidence worked in East and West Africa (FAO, 1978) has establis
hed a general figure of 100 mm (75mm-125mm taken also wet and upper limit) for soil moist
ure reserve. The (LGP) is calculated using a simple water balance model that relates rainfall a
nd moisture stored in the soil to ETO of the crop. Yemenu and Chemeda, (2010) defended the
quantitative assessment of the growing period as a period in days during a year when rainfall
exceeds half the ETO plus the period required to evapo transpire water from the excess rainfall
(or less if not available).

2.11.1. Estimation of onset and cessation date

The beginning of the growing period is taken at the time (in days) when the moisture supply
from rainfall and soil moisture reserve has just exceeded half potential evapo-transpiration.
Therefore, the amount of moisture supply that is equal to (or greater than) 0.5ETO has been
considered as being sufficient to meet the water requirements of establishing field crops.
Because of the fact that, in the FAO (1978) simple water balance model, the time when
moisture supply is 0.5ETO is taken as the reference beginning of the growing period. Edoga,
(2007) defined the onset of the growing season as the first day period of 20 mm of rain, but
they did not consider the possibility of a dry spell following its determined date.

Reda et al. (2015) further studied that due to complex topography and large spatial rainfall
variability, a single (Kiremt) onset criterion could not be established for all of Ethiopia. There
fore, in the study they have developed two separate sets of onset criteria, one for the wetter
regions from July - August, and the other for dry regions. Determination of (Kiremt) onset for
 23

stations in the wetter regions could involve several steps. The basic onset date was the first
day of the year’s first wet spell of at least three days totaling 20mm or more, provided there
were no sequences of eight or more dry days (<1 mm) days in the subsequent 30days. To
prevent this criterion giving early onset dates for regions having bi-modal annual rainfall
cycle that includes short spring rains before main summer rain only onset dates within two
months of the climatologic onset date were considered in their study.

According to Segele and Lamb (2005) study, the withdrawal of some monsoon systems is
often more disconnected, and hence better defined and organized, than their onset explained
by (Odekunle, 2007). The study characterized (Kiremt) determination of its cessation more str
aight forward than its onset. The only parameter needed to determine cessation was dry spell l
ength. However, because of the complex topography and large spatial rainfall variability dry-s
pell length thresholds had to be used. For all of Ethiopia except the southwestern region (Kire
mt) cessation was defined basically as the first day of a dry spell (<1 mm/day) of at least 20 d
ays duration that occurred after onset.

2.11.2. Impact of onset and cessation of seasonal rainfall on crop production

Studies have shown that the number of rainy days serves as a marker that can be used to
verify the distribution of rainfall. During the length of the growing season of crops, farmers
expect a balance between the distributions of rain days and moderation in rainfall amounts per
rain days throughout the season. High daily rainfall may be responsible for potentially destruc
tive to agriculture in sensitive areas that are prone to flooding. The onset of rains marks the
beginning of three main activities; planting, weeding and Harvesting (Omotosho, 1990). Start
of the season was the first occasion when cumulative 3 days rainfall is greater than or equal to
50% of the cumulative 5 day reference evapotranspiration and with no dry spell of consecutiv
e more than 9 days within the following 21 days. The choice of 50% ETo as the threshold for
water availability is based on experimental evidence that crop water stress becomes severe wh
en the available water is below half the crop water demand (0.5ETo) (Dorenboos, 1979) and
hence the minimum required rainfall amount of a particular date of onset should be at least
half of the amount of evapotranspiration (ETo) of that particular date. Moreover, no occurrenc
e of consecutive more than 9 days dry spells in the next 21 days after the defined date of start
 24

of the season to create favorable condition for land preparation, seed germination and seedling
establishment (Stern et al.,2006).

The importance of farming in the lives of these households also affect other activities (Omoto
sho et al., 2000) Planting that depends and is influenced directly by the onset of the rainy
season is the first activity, which the other two activities are based. Significant shifts in the on
set of rains will therefore affect both agriculture and many other non agricultural activities of
small-scale farmers.

2.11.3. Length of dry spells

According to NMA (2001) a day is said to be dry if it accumulates rainfall<1 mm and dry
spell length is the maximum number of consecutive dry days with rainfall less than 1 mm per
day exceeding 5, 7, 10, and 15 (Tesfaye and Walker, 2004). The same definition was used by
Mesay (2006) to determine the dry days in rainy season. In rainfed farming, the recurrent dry
spell becomes critical, particularly for the seedling establishment during the first 30 days or so
after planting. Because of the changing nature of planting dates with the variable characteristi
c of rainfall distribution of each season, calculations of dry spells on a calendar day basis have
limited importance for specific application in crop production (Tesfaye and Walker, 2004).
Thereafter, various definitions of a dry spell were used by the different authors along with diff
erent threshold values (Ceballos, 2003; Usman and Reason, 2004). It should be pointed out
that, unlike a dry day, the minimum number of consecutive dry days required to define a dry
spell has to be identified in a meaningful manner depending on the practical problem.
 25

3. MATERIALS AND METHODS

3.1. Description of the Study Area

The study was conducted in Misha woreda, Hadiya Zone, Southern Nations Nationalities and
People Region (SNNPRS) of Ethiopia. The area is located 250 km far from Addis Ababa and
211 km far from Hawassa. The woreda is approximately located between 7°3'19" - 7°56'1"
north latitude and 37°23'14" - 38°52'13" east longitudes (HFEDB, 2009).

The rainfall distribution of the study area is characterized by unimodal distribution and an ann
ual rainfall recorded between 800 mm to 1811 mm with an average of 1305.5 mm. The main
rainy season occurs between June to August. The temperature data obtained from Hosanna me
o
teorology station gives 22.54 c and 10.54℃ annual mean maximum and mean minimum temp
eratures respectively.

Relief of the study area consisted of high and low lands with small plane lands and the valley
at the courses of major rivers. Regarding the agro-ecological zone, about 60% is daga, 30% is
woina dega and about 10% is Kola. The dega (also known as the cool zone) occupies the
central sections of the western and eastern parts of the northwestern plateau. The elevation of
this region is mostly above 2400 masl, and daily temperature ranges from near freezing to
o
16 c. The weina dega or the temperate zone ranges between 1500 masl and 2400 masl in elev
o
ation and consists of parts of the central plateau. It has a daily temperature between 16 c and
o
30 c (USLC, 2005).

The dominant soil type in the study area is largely derived by the weathering process. Some
limited topical studies carried out by FAO and MoA indicate the widely distributed soil types
in the study area are Nitsoil and Chronic Luvisoil, which are clay in nature. These soils are
well drained in high land and the soils are affected by erosion and continuous cultivation.
Most crops grown in the study area are subsistence level for domestic consumption by the
rainfed farming system. The major crops grown are cereals such as wheat, teff, maize and
sorghum.
 26

Figure 3. Location map of the study area (GIS 10.1)

3.2. Data Sources

For this study, meteorological data were collected from the National Meteorological Agency
(NMA) at Addis Ababa. The major data types were daily rainfall (mm), minimum and maxim
um temperature (ºC) and Sunshine hours (hrs.). Temperature data were used as input for the
calculation of reference evapotranspiration (ETO). For this study out of three stations, Hosann
a, Shone and Fonko only two stations (Hosanna, and Fonko) had full data where as one statio
n shone did not have the full information. Therefore meteorological data of Hossana and Fonk
o were used in this study. The information about these two stations is included in Table 1 and
the location of meteorological stations are indicated in Figure 4.
 27

Table 1. Information about meteorological stations

Station name Latitude (No) Longitude (Eo) Altitude (m) Regional state
Hosanna 7.56 37.85 2307 SNNPR
Fonko 7.64 37.96 2246 SNNPR

Figure 4. Location of the meteorological stations in the study area

3.2.1. Data summary

Decadal (ten days) rainfall amounts were computed from the daily data set of 30 years (1987-
2016) of Fonko, and Hosanna, meteorological stations and presented in Appendix Tables 2, 3,
8 and 9. The Standard or Meteorological Decades (SMDs) were constructed in such a way
that each month of a given year was divided in to three decades and subsequently the first two
 28

ten days were considered as the first and second decade for each month, respectively. The rest
of the days in each month again summed up to form the last or third decade (Messay, 2006).
Standard meteorological decades are included in Appendix Table 1. The monthly ETO was est
imated by the Hargreave’s equation (Allen et al., 1998) due to the existing limited climate var
iables (Equation 10).

0.5
ETo = 0.0023 Tmean + 17.8)(Tmax − Tmin Ra (10)

where, Tmean =daily mean air temperature (°C) Tmax= daily maximum air temperature (°C)
Tmin= daily minimum air temperature (°C) Ra= extra-terrestrial radiation (MJm-2day-1

3.2.1. Data input

The input data are the annual or monthly precipitation for the calculation of Standardized Prec
ipitation Index (SPI). Temperature data are required in order to calculate reference evaporatio
n (ETO), by the Hargreave’s equation. (Equation10).

3.3. Software Used

In this study, drought vulnerability in the study area was investigated to characterize drought
in the study area both temporally and spatially at multiple time-scales and to identify drought-
prone areas in the zone. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) program developed by McKee
et al., (1993) was used to generate SPI values of each station and time-scale. DrinC (drought
indices calculator) software was used for descriptive statistical analysis. The Markov chain
model was used to study the probability of occurrence of dry and wet spells on decadal basis
using decadal rainfall data and decadal crop water requirement (CWR) of the selected crop.
Besides, CROPWAT 8.0 model was used to retrieve the decadal reference evapotranspiration
(ETO) while INSTAT software version 3.37 models was used to analyzed onset and cessation
of rainfall data.
 29

3.4. Processing of Rainfall Data

3.4.1. Missing rain fall data estimation

The missed rainfall data were filled by the techniques of arithmetic mean or normal ratio meth
od based on the existing percentage difference. Here the arithmetic mean was conducted for th
ose missed station’s which had a percentage difference of less than 10 with its normal rainfall.
On the other hand the normal ratio method was applied for stations with missed rainfall values
which had a percentage difference greater than 10% with its normal rainfall (Santosh, 2005).
P 1 +P 2 +⋯p m
Arithmetic Mean Px = (11)
N

Nx P1 P P
Normal ratio method Px = + N2 + ⋯ N n (12)
3 N1 2 m

where, PX = missed rainfall, mm, P1, P2, Pm = precipitation from base stations (1, 2……., m),
N1, N2 … Nm= annual normal rainfalls of m base station, Nx= annual normal rainfall of missed
value station

3.4.2. Consistency and homogeneity test of rainfall data

The consistency of the data set of the given stations was cheeked by the double mass-curve
method with reference to their neighborhood stations. The double mass curve was plotted by
using the annual cumulative total rainfall of the selected station as ordinate and the average
annual cumulative total of neighboring stations of all selected base stations in chronological
orders of year as abscissa.

The homogeneity of annual rainfall of study area station was tested using XLSTAT 2017
Software SNHT test (Amiri and Von Rosen, 2011). The SNHT test (Standard Normal Homog
eneity Test) was developed by (Amiri and von Rosen, 2011) to detect a change in a series of
climatic data. The test is applied to a series of ratios that compare the observations of a measu
ring station with the average of several stations. Different methods and tests have been introdu
ced to test the homogeneity of hydro climatic variable (Buishand,1982).
 30

3.5. Onset and Cessation of Rainfall

Onset and cessation of rainfall data were analyzed using an INSTAT software version 3.37 pa
ckage developed by the Statistical Services Centre of the University of Reading (Stern et al.,
2006). Markov Chain model which were used to assess the dry and wet spells distribution on
decadal basis using daily rainfall. Reddy (1990) stated that a 3 mm daily rainfall depth is the
minimum threshold value for crops to satisfy their daily crop water requirement. Crop water
requirement for the initial stage (i.e. ET initial = ETO x Kc initial) were considered as daily
minimum rainfall depth which satisfies their crop water requirement at the initial stage and in
the same manner the crop water requirement for the late season (i.e. ET late season = ETO x
Kc late season) were considered as daily minimum rainfall depth which satisfies their crop wa
ter requirement at the end of growing stage. Then after, by using those minimum threshold val
ues for the respective growth stages as daily crop water requirement and by finding the corres
ponding decadal crop water requirement for each common crop it will be easily found whethe
r that particular decadal is dry or wet. Furthermore, DrinC (drought indices calculator) progra
m was used extensively in the analysis of the SPI calculation. The study is focusing on import
ant indices; SPI, for 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months’ time scales in 2 meteorological synoptic stations
in Hadiya zone. DrinC (drought indices calculator) is stand-alone PC software which operate
s on Windows platform was used. The main objective of the software is to facilitate the proce
dure of the calculation of drought indices, which may be a complicated task, especially in the
case of the assessment of the spatial distribution of indices.

3.6. Estimation of Length of Growing Period (LGP) and its Variability

Reddy (1983) has developed a model for determining the onset of rain in a growing period by
relating ETO and rainfall values for the respective standard decades (decades of ten days) as
well as the effective LGP. This model gives emphasis to the optimum crop water requirement
for the determining both the start and end of growing period than using the threshold limit (30
mm) developed by Reddy (1990). To determine the onset, end date and LGP the definition
from Stern et al. (2006) was used. By this definition, a day with an accumulated rainfall amou
nt of 20 mm in three consecutive days and not followed by greater than nine days of dry spell
length within 30 days from the planting day is defined as the onset date. The end of the growi
 31

ng season is determined by the amount of water which is stored in the soil and accessible to
the crop after the rain stops. For this study the end of the rainy season was defined as any day
when the soil water reaches zero with the assumption of a fixed average evapotranspiration of
5mm per day and 100mm/meter of soil water holding capacity (Stern et al., 2006; Hoefsloot,
2009). By using this definition the built-in Instat statistical software version 3.37 was used for
the analysis and on the LGP was determined by taking the difference between the end date
and the onset. The count of wet and dry days was made with the 3 mm rainfall threshold for
the agricultural water management purpose (Abiy et al., 2014).

The characterization of length of growing period for rain-fed wheat crop grown in the study
area in terms of the onset, cessation and length of growing period were evaluated by modifyin
g water balance equation (FAO, 1978). The onset and cessation of the rainy period which
satisfies the water requirement of crop at specified decade were computed using the crop
coefficient (kc) and reference evapo transpiration values in the respective stages and compute
d with the available rainfall in the specified decade. The moisture reserve within the soil that
extends growing period beyond the rainy season were computed based upon the available
water within the root zone. The coefficient of variance (CV) statistics was used to test the
level of mean variations of seasonal rainfall; CV is defined as the ratio of standard deviation
to mean in percent, where mean and standard deviation are estimated from rainfall data
Wodaje et al. (2016).

𝑆𝐷
CV = × 100 (13)
𝑥

where: CV = coefficient of variation; S.D = standard deviation; 𝑥 =mean of rainfall (mm).

Wodaje et al. (2016) used CV to classify degree of variability of rainfall as less when (CV<20
%), moderate (CV from 20-30%) and highly variable for values of (CV>30%). On the other
hand, the standard deviation is computed as the square root of the variance. Using the classific
ation of Reddy (1990), the stability of rainfall is examined as indicated in Table 2: SD can be
computed as:
∞ 2
𝑥−𝑥
𝑆𝐷 = (14)
𝑛=1 𝑛
 32

Where S.D = standard deviation, 𝑥 =mean of rainfall (mm), n= number of observation and
x is a value of rainfall in the data set

3.6.1. Stability of LGP

The variability of the LGP is also determined by the value of the coefficient of variation (CV)
of LGP. The interpretation of the stability of the onset date is as shown below in Table 2.
Table 2. Stability of onset of growing period determined by the SD of average onset dates of
season (Reddy, 1990)

Standard Deviation(SD) Stability

≤1 Very high
1-2 High
2-4 Moderate
>4 Low

Rainfall and reference evapotranspiration (ETO) are two major climatic factors affecting agric
ultural production (Muluneh et al., 2017), and agricultural water resources face two major pro
blems. Evapotranspiration (ETo) is an important hydrological process and its estimation is nee
ded for many applications in diverse disciplines such as agriculture, hydrology, and meteorolo
gy but usually the estimation of ETo needs measurements of many weather variables such as a
tmospheric pressure, wind speed, air temperature, net radiation and relative humidity, but thes
e weather variables are not easily obtainable from practical measurements in weather stations
as the most prevailing weather stations in Ethiopia are class III meteorological stations that ca
n collect only air temperature and rainfall and class IV stations that can collect only rainfall.

3.6.2. Estimation of evapotranspiration

In the present study, the crop coefficient approach was used for computation of crop water
requirements (Doorenbos and Pruitt, 1975).

ETc = Kc * ETO (15)

 33

ETc = crop evapotranspiration/Crop water requirement (mmday-1),

ETO = reference evapotranspiration (mm day-1), Kc = crop coefficient.

The recommended crop water requirement (450 mm-650 mm) and the total growing period is
120-150 days for wheat according to FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper No.33 (Doorenbos
and Kassam, 1979)

The model in equation(15) only used for the main rainy season in determining the effective
growing period, because the rainfall amount during Belg rarely exceeds the threshold values
of half of the reference evapo-transpiration. The procedures to be followed are: Compute the
ratio of R/ETo for each standard decade of the rainy season from 1 to N years, where R is the
decadal precipitation amount, ETo is decadal reference evapo-transpiration from 1 to N years
and N represents the number of years for which the decadal rainfall (R) is available. For each
decade of an individual year, compute a 3 Decade Moving Average (DMA) of R/ETo
centered on a particular decade. This procedure was considered to generate smooth estimates
of R/ETo on a continuous basis for consideration of past and future moisture (i.e. the dry and
wet condition in the previous decades may have its own corresponding effects on the
following one conditions (Engida, 2001). To determine the available effective rainy period-G
(i.e. effective LGP) as a continuous period in that particular year which should simultaneously
satisfies the following two conditions:

R
DMA of ≥ 0.75 (16)
ETo

R
≥ 0.5 (17)
ETo

where all decades in period-G must have a 3 decade moving average of R/ETo greater than
0.75 as well as the decade at the beginning of the period-G must also have a value of R/ETo
greater than 0.5. Then, that available effective rainy period-G is considered to be the LGP. For
estimating end of growing period in the study area, FAO (1978) simple water balance model
will be used. In this method mean monthly rainfall and 50 % ETO values were plotted for
twelve months of a year. Whenever the monthly rainfall did cross the 50 % value of ETO in a
given month (R>0.5ETo), that month were considered as the starting period of the LGP.
 34

Similarly, the time when the mean monthly rainfall starts falling below the monthly 50 per
cent ETO value (R<0.5ETo), that month will be considered as termination of the LGP.

3.7. Analysis of Dry and Wet Spell for drought Assessment

The distribution of dry/wet spells during the monsoon period is essential for successful rain-
fed farming. It is also important to know the chances of occurrence of dry spells during the
critical growth stages of the crops for deciding the sowing date, cropping pattern and planning
for supplemental irrigation and other agricultural operations. With this view in mind, dry/wet
spells was analyzed as follows

3.7.1. Distribution of dry and wet spells

Markov Chain model

The different formulations of Markov chain model which was used in the assessment of
the distribution of dry and wet spells are presented in the following series of equations( Reddy
(1990).
Initial probabilities

FD
PD = (18)
n

FW
PW = (19)
n

Conditional probabilities

FWW
PWW = (20)
FW

FDD
PDD = (21)
FD

PWD = 1 − PDD (22)

PDW = 1 − PWW (23)

where: FD- is the number of dry decades

 35

FW- is number of wet decades

FDD -is number of dry decade followed by another dry one
FWW -is number of wet decades followed by other wet decades
PD -is the probability of a decade being dry
PW -is the probability of a decade being wet
PWW- is the probability of wet decade preceded by another wet decade
PDD -is the probability of a dry decade preceded by another dry one
PWD -is the probability of a wet decade preceded by another dry decade
PDW- is the probability of a dry decade preceded by a wet one.

3.8. Drought Analysis

3.8.1. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

The drought vulnerability in the study area will be investigated using the Standardized
Precipitation Index (SPI), a meteorological drought index developed by McKee et al. (1993).

x−μ
Z= (24)
δ

where, Z is the standardized precipitation index; x is the annual/seasonal rainfall total of a

particular year; µ is mean annual/seasonal rainfall over a period of observation and 𝛿 is the
standard deviation of annual/ seasonal rainfall over the period of observation.
Table 3. The drought classification using SPI, presented by McKee et al. (1993, 1995)
SPI value Classification
2.0 or more Extremely wet
1.5 to 1.99 Very wet
1.0 to1.49 Moderately wet
-0.99 to 0.99 Near normal
-1 to -1.49 Severely dry
-2.0 and less Extremely dry
 36

Table 4. Drought classification by SPI values (Hayes et al., 1999)

SPI value Classification Probability occurrence (%)

2.00 and above Extremely wet 2.3
1.50 to 1.99 Very wet 4.4
1.00 to 1.49 Moderately wet 9.2
-0.99 to 0.99 Near normal 68.2
-1.00 to -1.49 Moderately dry 9.2
-1.50 to -1.99 Severely dry 4.4
-2.00 or less Extremely dry 2.3

3.8.2. Drought magnitude and intensity

Temporal drought characteristics such as drought magnitude (DM) and drought intensity (DI)
were determined using SPI analysis. The magnitude of a considered drought event correspond
s to the cumulative water deficit over the drought period and the average of this cumulative
water deficit over the drought period was the mean intensity as McKee et al. (1995).

k
DM = −( j−1 SPIji ) (25)

Where, DM is the drought magnitude, n is the number of months with drought event at j
timescale. Drought intensity (DI) M is defined as the ratio of drought magnitude over drought
duration as:

DM
DI = (26)
Dd

where, Dd is the drought duration.

The three month time-scale drought magnitude in each of the month in a growing period
(March to September) was calculated by summing the previous monthly SPI values for the
corresponding time-scale and that particular month in which the SPI value was less than or
equal to -1. For example, the drought magnitude in the month of May on 3-month time-scale
can be constructed by taking the sum of the SPI values which are less than or equal to -1 for
Belg duration of three months (March-May)and for kiremt duration of three months(July-
September).
 37

3.8.3. Drought frequency analysis

Drought frequency in the stations was estimated for each time scale based on the percentage
occurrence of each drought category (moderate, severe and extreme) for each station with res
pect to the total length of data record 30 years over each station for the given time scale. The
aim of drought frequency analysis was to identify stations most vulnerable to drought based
on a given time scale for each time station.

3.9. Trend Analysis of Rainfall

3.9.1. Mann-Kendall Test

A trend analysis of the rainfall data series of each station was made by a non-parametric
Mann-Kendall rank test method at 5% significance level. According to this test, the null hypo
thesis H0 assumes that there is no trend (the data is independent and randomly ordered) and

this is tested against the alternative hypothesis H1, which assumes that there is a trend (Abrha,
2015). Software used for performing the statistical Mann-Kendall test is Addinsoft’s XLSTA
T 2014. The null hypothesis is tested at 5% confidence level for both, temperature and precipi
tation data for the two stations. In addition, to compare the results obtained from the Mann-Ke
ndall test, linear trend lines are plotted for stations using Microsoft Excel 2010. Mann Kendall
test is a non- parametric method which is less sensitive to out liers and test for a trend in a tim
e series without specifying whether the trend is linear or non- linear (Portal and Kahya, 2006 )
. The S statistics is used for test and its variance is given in equation (1) and (2). The mean
E(s) and variance V(s) of the statistics were estimated by:

n n−1 2n+5
Var s = (27)
18

where n is the number of observations and xi (i=1…n) are the independent observations. The
trend of annual rainfall data series and the parameters, Kendall, S, tau test and p values had
been generated from XLSTAT.
 38

4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

4.1. Missing Rainfall Data Estimation

In this study, the missing values for a particular decades or months were filled from the corres
ponding arithmetic mean values of decades or months for each weather elements. Missing
data’s of Fonko and Hossana station was filled by arithmetic mean method as their normal
annual value < 10%. For instance, if there is no rainfall data for the 2nd decade of April 2003,
arithmetic mean of 2nd decade of April rainfall values of the rest of the years was used to infill
the missing value of the respective decade and year.

4.2. Homogeneity and Consistency of the Rainfall Data Series

4.2.1. Homogeneity of the rainfall data series

The basic statistics associated with this test are summarized in table (5) for two stations under
study. As is indicated in table 5 and figures 5 and 6, the annual rainfall data series was
homogenous. As the computed number of the tied groups in the data set (p-value) is lower
than the significance level alpha=0.05, one should reject the null hypothesis H0, and accept

the alternative hypothesis Ha. Annual precipitation at Hosanna station varies between 2189.81
mm (2006) to 3499.110 mm (2013) with a standard deviation of 394.402 mm and with a mean
of 2806.15 mm. Annual precipitation at Fonko station varies between 946.010 mm (2011) to
2592.140 mm (2016) with a standard deviation of 401.538 mm and with a mean of 1499.7mm
Table 5.Standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT) (total) for the considered

Statistics Hosanna Fonko

Minimum 2189.81 946.01
Maximum 3499.11 2592.14
Mean 2806.15 1499.7
St.d 394.4 401.5
P-value (Two-tailed) 0.045 <0.0001
Alpha 0.05 0.05
 39

Fonko station
3000

2500
Total rain fall

2000

1500

1000

500
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year
Total mu1 = 1382 mu2 = 2267

Figure 5. Standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT) (Total) graph of Fonko station rainfall

Hossana station
3600

3400

3200
Total rain fall

3000

2800

2600

2400

2200

2000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year
Total mu1 = 2967 mu2 = 2564

Figure 6. Standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT) (Total) graph of Hosanna station rainfall

4.2.2. Consistency test of rainfall data

The double mass curve which is the plot of the annual cumulative total rainfall data of the
base station with the average annual cumulative total rainfall data of neighborhood stations of
the considered stations is presented in figure 7. Accordingly, the graph of the double mass
curve plot was found to be almost linear for all stations with a coefficient of determination
(R2) ranging from 0.986 - 0.999. This implies that the rainfall data were consistent over the
considered period of time.
 40

Double Mass Curve

Cummulative annual total RF of base stations (mm) 20000
18000
Fonko R² = 0.999
16000
14000 Hossana R² = 0.986
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
0 5000 10000 15000 20000

Cummulative annual total RF of nieghbouring stations (mm)

Figure 7. Double mass curve for the considered stations

4.3. Onset and Cessation of Rainfall for Kiremt and Belg Season and LGPs
of the Crop

4.3.1. The main rainy season (Kiremt)

4.3.1.1. Onset and end of rainy season

The FAO (1978) simple soil water balance model based on the mean statistical analysis of 30
years data for both Hosanna and Fonko stations revealed that the main rainy season (Kiremt)
started during the first meteorological decade of June (decade16) (table 6). The mean onset of
the rainy season was observed with a standard deviation of 0.75 decades (8 days) and
coefficient of variation of 4.75% indicating very high stability of the onset of Kiremt at Hosan
na area, and for Fonko it was observed with a standard deviation of 0.75 decades (8 days) and
coefficient of variation of 4.75%, indicating very high stability of onset of Kiremt season in
the area (table 6).
 41

Table 6 Mean onset decades and their stability in kiremt season

Area Mean onset decade no SD(decade) Cv (%) Stability of the onset

Hosanna 16 0.75 4.75 Very high
Fonko 16 0.75 4.75 Very high

Recession of rainfall was observed on last meteorological decade of October (decade 30) at
both Hosanna and Fonko stations (table 7) include SD for both of the stations on tell about
stability of ends rainy season.
Table 7 Mean Recession decades and their stability in kiremt season

Area Mean cession decade no SD(decade) CV (%) Stability of the cessation

Hosanna 30 12.9 4.25 Low
Fonko 30 12.9 4.25 Low

4.3.1.3. Variability of length of growing period in the kiremt season

The time series of the length of growing periods in the Kiremt season in Hosanna, and Fonko
area are presented in table 8 and 9.
Hosanna: The minimum length of the growing period 142, 151 and 152 days had been observ
ed in the year 2008 ,2005, and 1987 (table 7). With the exception of the year 2008, 2005 and 1
987 the main growing season was found in the range of 161 to 205 days in all years with the
mean LGP of 177 days, standard deviation of 17 days and coefficient of variation of 9.6%
(table 8).
 42

Table 8. Time series of length of growing periods of Hosanna station in Kiremt season.

Onset Cessation Average 100mm Evapo- LGP

year (decade no) (decade no) daily ETO(mm) transpired(days) (days)
1987 16 28 4.55 22 152
1988 16 30 4.28 23 173
1989 16 30 4.32 23 173
1990 15 31 4.12 24 194
1991 16 31 4.27 23 183
1992 16 31 4.07 25 185
1993 16 30 4.18 24 174
1994 16 30 4.43 23 173
1995 16 31 4.28 23 183
1996 15 32 4.14 24 204
1997 16 29 4.39 23 163
1998 17 30 4.42 23 163
1999 16 30 4.03 25 175
2000 16 33 4.23 24 204
2001 15 32 4.08 25 205
2002 15 32 4.41 23 203
2003 16 32 4.56 22 192
2004 15 28 4.52 22 162
2005 16 28 4.83 21 151
2006 16 29 4.85 21 161
2007 16 31 4.75 21 181
2008 19 30 4.53 22 142
2009 15 31 4.49 22 192
2010 15 30 4.52 22 182
2011 15 29 4.65 21 171
2012 18 32 4.52 22 172
2013 16 30 3.97 25 175
2014 15 29 4.49 22 172
2015 16 29 4.55 22 162
2016 16 31 4.24 24 184
mean 16 30 4.39 23 177
SD=17 CV=9.6%

Fonko: The minimum length of the growing period of 141, 150 and 152 days had been observ
ed in the year 2008, 2005and 1987 (table 9).With the exception of year 2008, 2005 and 1987,
the main growing season had been found from 160 to 203 days in all years with the mean LG
P of 176 days, standard deviation of 16 days and coefficient of variation of 9 % (table 9).
 43

Table 9.Time Series of length of growing periods of Fonko station in Kiremt season

Onset Cessation Average 100mm Evapo- LGP

year (decade no) (decade no) Daily ETO(mm) transpired(days) (days)
1987 16 28 4.59 22 152
1988 16 30 4.47 22 172
1989 16 30 4.48 22 172
1990 15 31 4.36 23 193
1991 16 31 4.40 23 183
1992 16 31 4.29 23 183
1993 16 30 4.45 22 172
1994 16 30 4.63 22 172
1995 16 31 4.54 22 182
1996 15 32 4.41 23 203
1997 16 29 4.57 22 162
1998 17 30 4.68 21 161
1999 16 30 4.27 23 173
2000 16 33 4.46 22 202
2001 15 32 4.33 23 203
2002 15 32 4.67 21 201
2003 16 32 4.82 21 191
2004 15 28 4.84 21 161
2005 16 28 5.06 20 150
2006 16 29 4.94 20 160
2007 16 31 4.88 21 181
2008 19 30 4.68 21 141
2009 15 31 4.70 21 191
2010 15 30 4.64 22 182
2011 15 29 4.80 21 171
2012 18 32 4.79 21 171
2013 16 30 4.19 24 174
2014 15 29 4.04 25 175
2015 16 29 4.08 25 165
2016 16 31 3.80 26 186
mean 16 30 4.52 22 176
Mean=176 SD=16 CV=9%
 44

4.3.2. The Small Rainy Season (Belg)

4.3.2.1. Onset and end of the Belg season

According to Stewart (1991), the onset date is a key variable to which all other seasonal
rainfall attributes are related. It is the onset relations that determine how the season’s rainfall
is expected to behave. The occurrence of the Belg growing season as a whole is less frequent.
The mean onset of Belg season occurred during the last decade of April (decade 12) both at
Hosanna and Fonko station with standard deviations of 3 and 3 decades that is on average 30
days for each. According to Reddy (1990), the stability of the onset of growing period is
explained by the standard deviation of the average onset decades of the seasons. Hence, the
onset of Belg growing season is moderately reliable in both stations of the study (Table 10)
Table 10. Summary of the onset date for small rainy season (March - May) in the study area
Study Area decade Mean onset (decade) SD (decade) CV (%) Stability
Hosanna 9 3 24 moderate
Fonko 9 3 24 moderate

Recession of rainfall was not observed on the meteorological decade of May because
both Hosanna, Fonko stations are unimodal (Figure 8 and 9).

4.3.2.3. Characteristics of long term seasonal rainfall (March - October)

Means, standard deviations and coefficients of variation (CV) were obtained from the long ter
m seasonal rainfall for the stations studied, that is, Hossana and Fonko (Table 2). Seasonal me
ans of rainfall ranged from 329.99mm, 157mm, 47.6% (Hossana) to 178.5mm, 74mm, 41.9%
(Fonko). The lowest values (less than 400 mm) were observed over Hossana (329.99mm) and
Fonko (178.mm). Rainfall values at Hossana and Fonko are quite low in meeting the seasonal
water requirements for a crop like Wheat, which requires about (450-650mm). This amount m
ay be sufficient for crops like millet and sorghum, which are tolerant to drought, although far
mers in these areas choose planting Wheat.
 45

Table 11. Monthly rainfall of both station (March October)

Month Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct.

AV.RF/Hossana 145.69 237.26 294.66 466.63 507.39 500.09 376.43 111.83
AV.RF/Fonko 90.39 159.3 155.18 228.84 262.8 259.9 208.76 62.78

The monthly rainfall pattern of the station Hossana, July is the wettest month at high rainfall
station. Therefore, the distribution of monthly rainfall of this station shows unimodal pattern.
The rainfall attains its peak only once in a year i.e. in July and rest of the months receives less
rainfall than of July. Figure 8 represent the unimodal rainfall pattern at Hossana.

Monthly rainfall of Hossana station

500
450
400
350
300
250
AV.RF/Hossana
200
150
100
50
0
Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct.

Figure 8. Distribution of monthly rainfall at Hossana station (1987-2016)

The monthly rainfall pattern of the station Fonko, July is the wettest month at high rainfall
station. Therefore, the distribution of monthly rainfall of this station shows unimodal pattern.
The rainfall attains its peak only once in a year i.e. in July and rest of the months receives less
rainfall than of July. Figure 9 represent the unimodal rainfall pattern at Fonko.
 46

Monthly rainfall of Fonko station

250

200

150

100

50

0
Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct.

Figure 9. Distribution of monthly rainfall at Fonko station (1987-2016)

4.4. Markov Chain Modeling

4.4.1. Initial and conditional probability of occurrence of consecutive wet and dry
decades

In a crop growing season, many times decisions have to be taken based on the probability of
receiving certain amount of rainfall during a given decade. Therefore, Markov chain model w
as used to evaluate the dry and wet spell distributions on decadal basis using decadal rainfall.

Hossana: The results of initial and conditional probabilities of dry and wet decades during Be
lg and Kiremt season at Hossana area are presented in AppendexTables 20. These results reve
aled that the probability of having a wet (PW) of greater than 50% occurred during 16th to 27th
decades. While probability occurrence of a dry decade (PD) with more than 50% probability o
f occurrences observed to be between 7th to 15thdecade. Conditional probability of wet decade
preceded by a wet decade (PWW) at Hossana is observed to be greater than 50% (61-92%) for
all decades between 7th and 27th decades. similar the decades were observe to have more that
50% probability of occurrences of dry decades preceded by dry decades except (decade 20 an
d 23). Moreover, the probability of occurrence of dry decade preceded by wet decade or vice
versa (PWD or PDW) was found to be in the range of (3-57%) and (5-39%) respectively for the
same location.
 47

Fonko: The results of initial and conditional probabilities of dry and wet decades during Belg
and Kiremt season at Fonko area are presented in AppendixTables 21. These results revealed t
hat the probability of having a wet (PW) of greater than 50% occurred during 16th to 27thdecad
es. While probability occurrence of a dry decade (PD) with more than 50% probability of occu
rrences observed to be between 7th to 15thdecade. Conditional probability of wet decade introd
uced by a wet decade (PWW) at Fonko is observed to be greater than 50% (61-91%) for all dec
ades between 7th and 27th decades. Similathe decades were observe to have more that 50% pro
bability of occurrences of dry decades preceded by dry decades except (decade 20,21 and 23).
Moreover, the probability of occurrence of dry decade preceded by wet decade or vice versa
(PWD or PDW) was found to be in the range of (6-57%) and (9-39%) respectively for the same
location.

4.5. Standardized precipitation index (SPI)

4.5.1. Temporal variation of drought

In the following sections, results of meteorological drought analyses on 1, 3, and 6-month tim
e-scales in the two seasons for the study area. A 3-month SPI reflects short- and medium-term
moisture conditions and provides a seasonal estimation of precipitation. The 6-month SPI indi
cates medium-term trends in precipitation and can be very effective showing the precipitation
over distinct seasons. Information from a 6-month SPI may also begin to be associated with u
nnatural stream-flow and storage reservoir conditions.

4.5.2. Relative frequency of drought events

Kiremt (June-September)

Drought frequencies (percentage of drought occurrences) were obtained by the taking the rati
o of number of drought occurrences in each time scale to the total length of data record and
results of analyses of drought frequencies in the study area at the three time scales (1, 3, 6 mo
nth) are presented in Table 12. These results revealed that on the 1month time scale, a modera
te drought occurred most frequently at Hosanna station (57.89%) during the period of record
(1990, 1997,2004,2006,2012 and 2013) and Fonko (47.05%).
 48

However, on 3-month time-scale, the most frequent moderate drought (33.33%) was observed
at Hosanna, (2016) and Fonko (40%) during the period of record (1988 and 2011). Moreover,
with the exception of Hosanna on 1-month time scale and on the 6-month time scale, severe
droughts occurred more frequently than extreme droughts. Results analyzed for number of
occurrence of drought events based on 1-, 3- and 6-month time-scales for Kiremt season are
presented in Table 12. For instance, the highest number of severe drought event (2) on 6-
month time scale was found for Fonko, while the lowest (4) was found for Hosanna and the
highest number of extreme drought event (4) was also recorded for Hosanna but for Fonko it
was found to be (3). Moreover, number of occurrence of drought event analysis on 3-month
time-scale shown that moderate drought to be in the range of 8 to 11, the lowest number of
moderate drought event (8) was found for Fonko and the highest (11) was found for Hosanna.

Fonko was also found to have zero occurrence probability for extreme drought on both 3- and
6-month time scales. Furthermore, analysis of number of drought events based on the 6-month
time-scale revealed that the highest number of moderate drought event (3) was found for
Hosanna and Fonko has got the lowest number extreme drought event zero. In addition, Hosa
nna was found to have the highest number of extreme drought event (2). From these results
the concluding remarks can be stated in such a way that different stations respond to different
drought severity levels with respect to different time-scales differently. Moreover, no station
can be found free from at least one type of drought with a given severity level.

Table 12. Number of occurrences of drought events during Kiremt season for the different
drought severity levels for 1-3-6-month time-scales for the two stations.

Severity level No of drought events at 1-3-6-month time-scales

station
SPI-1 SPI-3 SPI-6
Moderate 11 2 3
Hosanna Severe 4 3 0
Extreme 4 1 2
Fonko Moderate 8 2 1
Severe 6 3 2
Extreme 3 0 0
 49

Table 13. Relative frequency of drought events during Kiremt season for the different drought
severity levels for 1-3 - 6 - month time-scales for the two stations.

station Severity level Drought frequencies at 1-3-6-month time-scales

SPI-1 SPI-3 SPI-6
Moderate 57.89 33.33 60
Hosanna Severe 21.05 50 0
Extreme 21.05 16.66 40
Fonko Moderate 47.05 40 33.33
Severe 35.29 60 66.67
Extreme 17.64 0 0

Belg (March-May): Results presented in Table 14 disclosed that Fonko has got the highest
occurrence of moderate drought event (9) on 1 month time scale and Hosanna was also found
for the highest occurrence of moderate drought event (2) on 3-month time-scale among the
stations. It was also found that no events of extreme drought happened to Fonko in both the 3-
month time-scale and 6-month time-scale. In general, the occurrence of drought event in Belg
season is not dominated by extreme events for most of the time-scales. Analysis for relative
frequency of drought occurrence during Belg season showed that for both stations (Table15)
were found to have a moderate drought in the range of (46.66-90%) on 1-month time-scale,
the highest drought frequency (90%) was found for Fonko and the lowest drought frequency
was found for Hosanna (46.66%) while a zero frequency of extreme drought event was
observed on this time-scale at Fonko. Meanwhile, drought frequency analysis for the 3-and 6-
month time-scales (Table15) revealed that the highest frequency (40%) happened to Fonko
for moderate drought event on 3-month time-scale while the lowest (0%) was found for
Hosanna stations. The highest frequency (60%) of severe drought event was found for
Hosanna and the lowest frequency (0%) for Fonko on 3-monthtime-scale. Moreover, there is
no extreme drought occurred was found for both stations on 3-month time-scale. Drought
frequency analyses for the 6-month time-scale disclosed that Hosanna station has got the
highest frequency (25%) of extreme drought while the lowest frequency (0%) was found for
Fonko. Fonko was found to have the highest frequency (33.33%) of severe drought event
followed by Hosanna (0%) on the 6-month time-scale. From those results it can be concluded
 50

that stations are found to be affected frequently by moderate, severe and extreme drought
categories in their respective orders for all time-scales with some differences. A moderate
drought category is found to be occurring most frequently in both of the stations for the three
time-scales.
Table 14. Number of occurrences of drought events during Belg season for the different droug
ht severity levels for 1- 3 - 6 - month time-scales for both stations.

Severity level No of drought events at 1-3-6-month time-scales

station
SPI-1 SPI-3 SPI-6
Moderate 7 2 3
Severe 7 3 0
Hosanna
Extreme 1 0 1
Fonko Moderate 9 0 4
Severe 1 0 2
Extreme 0 0 0

Table 15. Relative frequency of drought events during Belg season for the different drought
severity levels for 1 - 3 -6 - month time-scales for both stations

station Severity level Drought frequencies at 1-3-6-month time-scales

SPI-1 SPI-3 SPI-6
Moderate 46.66 40 75
Hosanna Severe 46.66 60 0
Extreme 6.66 0 25
Fonko Moderate 90 0 66.66
Severe 10 0 33.33
Extreme 0 0 0

4.5.3. Drought magnitude and intensity

For illustrative purpose, only drought magnitudes and intensities computed for two meteorolo
gical stations (Hosanna and Fonko) in Kiremt on the time scale of 3 months are presented in
Table 16 and Table 17. These results revealed that during the period of record, no drought eve
nts were recorded at Hosanna and Fonko stations for a total of 15 and 14 years, respectively.
 51

However, drought intensity (DI) is not only determined by drought magnitude (DM) but also
by duration drought (DD), for instance, the largest DM (5.06) was observed for Hosanna stati
on but its DI was not proportionally larger due to the fact that the drought was distributed
for a relatively long period of time. Therefore, larger amount of DI is most of the time expecte
d when a given magnitude of drought for shorter period of time, for example, in 1990and 201
2 droughts of magnitude 5.06 and 4.38 were occurred, respectively, at Hosanna station with d
uration of 3 and 2,respectively, thus their DIs (1.68 &2.19) are comparable with different DM.
Table 16. Drought magnitude and intensity during Kiremt season on 3 month time scale at Ho
sanna station.
Year No. of events DM DI
1987 0 * -
1988 1 1.66 1.66
1989 0 * -
1990 3 5.06 1.68
1991 0 * -
1992 1 1.7 1.7
1993 0 * -
1994 1 1.82 1.82
1995 0 * -
1996 0 * -
1997 1 1.04 1.04
1998 1 2.31 2.31
1999 0 * -
2000 0 * -
2001 0 * -
2002 0 * -
2003 0 * -
2004 0 * -
2005 0 * -
2006 1 1.96 1.96
2007 1 1.36 1.36
2008 1 1.15 1.15
2009 1 1.15 1.15
2010 1 1.15 1.15
2011 1 1.84 1.84
2012 2 4.38 2.19
2013 0 * -
2014 0 * -
2015 1 1.83 1.83
2016 1 1.33 1.33
 52

*Indicates year with no drought in the Kiremt season

Table 17. Drought magnitude and intensity during Kiremt season on 3- month time scale at
Fonko station.

Year No. of events DM DI

1987 1 1.23 1.23
1988 1 1.74 1.74
1989 0 * -
1990 2 3.03 1.51
1991 1 1.34 1.34
1992 1 1.06 1.06
1993 0 * -
1994 1 1.77 1.77
1995 1 1.05 1.05
1996 0 * -
1997 0 * -
1998 1 1.53 -
1999 0 * -
2000 0 * -
2001 0 * -
2002 1 1.07 1.07
2003 0 * -
2004 0 * -
2005 2 2.18 1.09
2006 1 2.44 2.44
2007 1 1.22 1.22
2008 1 1.51 1.51
2009 0 * -
2010 1 1.76 1.76
2011 2 2.56 1.28
2012 2 3.77 1.88
2013 0 * -
2014 0 * -
2015 0 * -
2016 0 * -

*Indicates year with no drought in the Kiremt season

4.6. Mann-Kendall Test

In this study, rainfall and temperature variability have been computed using CV. The basic sta
tistics associated with this test are summarized in (Table 18) for both (Hosanna and Fonko)
stations. According to the result, the computed p-values for Hosanna and Fonko, were found
 53

to be lower than the significance level (alpha=0.05), thus one can detect that there is a trend in
the rainfall data series of these stations. The coefficient of variation (CV) is the measure of
spread data points in data series around the mean which is found 14.13% at Hosanna and
26.77% at Fonko station. According to Hare (2003) CV is used to classify the degree of varia
bility of rainfall events as less (CV< 20), moderate (20 < CV < 30), and high (CV > 30). So
the rain fall variability of Fonko more moderate than Hosanna.
Table 18. Mann-Kendall trend test / Two-tailed test for considered stations

Statistics Hosanna Fonko

Kendall's tau -0.094 0.067
S -41.000 29.000
p-value (two-tailed) 0.479 0.621
Var(S) 0.000 0.000
Alpha 0.05 0.05
Sen's slope -6.832 6.57

3600
Hossana station

3400

3200
Annual rain fall

3000

2800

2600

2400

2200

2000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year

Figure 10. Plots of annual rainfall (mm) at Hosanna station from 1987-2016

As was indicated in table 18, the annual rainfall data series was homogenous. As the compute
d the number of the tied groups in the data set (p-value) is lower than the significance level
alpha=0.05,one should reject the null hypothesis H0, and accept the alternative hypothesis Ha.
 54

Figure 11. Plots of annual rainfall (mm) at Fonko station from 1987-2016
As was indicated in table 18, the annual rainfall data series was homogenous. As the compute
d p value is greater than the significance level alpha=0.05, one cannot reject the null hypothes
is H0. The results clearly indicate that changes are occurring in the precipitation patterns in
the study area indicating the signs of hot.

4.7. Characterization of Length of Growing Period for Wheat Crop

The results of initial and conditional probabilities of dry and wet decades during Kiremt seaso
n are presented in Tables 19. These results revealed that the probability of occurrence of a wet
decade in the initial growth stage of the Wheat crop (D19 –D20 (July 1-15). These results
revealed that the probability of having a wet (PW) of greater than 75% occurred during 19th to
20th decades. (Table19) while probability occurrence of a dry decade ranges from 25% to 26%
.The probability of occurrence of two wet decades in the sequence was also found to
be in the ranges between 80 to 89% while the probability of two dry decades occurring in the
sequence was found to be range between 45 to 53%. Moreover, the probability of occurrence
of dry decade preceded by a wet decade or vice versa (PWD or PDW) was found to be in the
range of 11-55%. From these results, it might be concluded that the rainfall during this season
is put into sufficient to meet the CWR of wheat in amount and/or distribution during its initial
growth stage because of the highest occurrence probability of wet spell. Therefore, there is no
moisture stress at the initial stage of the crop growing period.
 55

Similarly, the occurrence probability of wet and dry decades during the crop’s development
stage (D20-D23) (July 16-August15) was analyzed and results are presented in Table20. It
was found that the occurrence probability of having a wet (PW) of greater than 76% occurred
during 20th to 23rd decades while that of the dry decade was in the range of 24-29%. The
probability of occurrence of two consecutive dry decades was found to be in the range of 43%
to 53% while that of two consecutive wet decades was found to be in the between 83% - 85%.

However, the occurrence probability of a wet decade followed by a dry decade and vice versa
was found to be in the range of 15% to 57% which is relatively lower probability of
occurrence than the other event. From the results obtained, it might also be suggested that
those decades in these stages satisfy the crop water requirement of wheat crop without
additional water. From the results of analyses made for the mid-season growth stage of the
crop (Table21), it can be noted that occurrence probabilities of wet and dry decades fall in the
ranges above 17% and 87%, respectively, while the probabilities of two wet and two dry
decades occurring consecutively are in the ranges 43% and 95%, respectively. These results
also revealed that the occurrence probabilities of dry decades during this growing stage of the
crop were relatively high. Similar fashion can be observed for late growth stage as the other
stages (Table21).

The results of the analysis revealed that comparable occurrence probability distribution of dry
and wet spells was happened which is unfavorable to the assessment of occurrence probability
for the individual stages of growth separately except for some deviations within and in
occurrence probability of alternate dry-wet spells (PWD and PDW). It can still be observed
that the distribution of alternate dry and wet spells (PWD and PDW) have got the highest
occurrence probability within the range of 20% to 55% except for late growth stage which is
0%-40%. Among all the growing stages, the late growth stage was found to have the lowest
occurrence probability of both single wet spell and consecutive wet spell distribution 1% and
69%, respectively and the highest occurrence probability of dry spell and consecutive dry
spell were found to be above 87%. In general, from the above results it can be noted that all
occurrence probabilities of wet decades (initial and conditional) were higher than the
corresponding occurrence probabilities of dry decades during all stages of growth except late
growth stage.
 56

Table 19. Probability distribution of dry and wet spells in Kiremt during the initial growth sta
ge of wheat at Hosanna station
SMD PD PW PDD PDW PWD PWW
D19 0.25 0.75 0.53 0.11 0.47 0.89
D20 0.26 0.74 0.45 0.20 0.55 0.80

Table 20. Probability distribution of dry and wet spells in Kiremt season during the developm
ent stage of wheat at Hosanna station

SMD PD PW PDD PDW PWD PWW

D20 0.26 0.74 0.45 0.20 0.55 0.80
D21 0.24 0.76 0.53 0.16 0.48 0.84
D22 0.29 0.71 0.50 0.17 0.50 0.83
D23 0.26 0.74 0.43 0.15 0.57 0.85

Table 21. Probability distribution of dry and wet spells in Kiremt season during mid growth st
age of wheat at Hosanna station

SMD PD PW PDD PDW PWD PWW

D23 0.26 0.74 0.43 0.15 0.57 0.85
D24 0.23 0.85 0.55 0.11 0.45 0.89
D25 0.17 0.83 0.52 0.05 0.48 0.95
D26 0.23 0.77 0.60 0.12 0.40 0.88
D27 0.44 0.56 0.80 0.17 0.20 0.83
D28 0.59 0.41 0.94 0.16 0.06 0.84
D29 0.77 0.23 0.93 0.23 0.07 0.77

Table 22. Probability distribution of dry and wet spells in Kiremt season during late growth

SMD PD PW PDD PDW PWD PWW

D30 0.87 0.13 0.98 0.31 0.02 0.69
D31 0.94 0.06 1.00 0.61 0.00 0.39
D32 0.96 0.04 1.01 0.55 -0.01 0.45
D33 0.99 0.01 1.03 0.33 -0.03 0.67
 57

Table 23. Probability distribution of dry and wet spells in Kiremt during the initial growth
stage of wheat at Fonko station

SMD PD PW PDD PDW PWD PWW

D19 0.25 0.75 0.53 0.14 0.47 0.86
D20 0.256 0.743 0.43 0.21 0.57 0.79

Table 24.Probability distribution of dry and wet spells in Kiremt season during the
development stage of wheat at Fonko station

SMD PD PW PDD PDW PWD PWW

D20 0.256 0.743 0.43 0.21 0.57 0.79
D21 0.242 0.757 0.48 0.17 0.53 0.83
D22 0.293 0.706 0.50 0.21 0.50 0.79
D23 0.263 0.736 0.43 0.19 0.57 0.81

Table 25. Probability distribution of dry and wet spells in Kiremt season during mid-growth
stage of wheat at Fonko station
SMD PD PW PDD PDW PWD PWW
D23 0.26 0.707 0.43 0.19 0.57 0.81
D24 0.23 0.737 0.55 0.15 0.45 0.85
D25 0.17 0.847 0.52 0.09 0.48 0.91
D26 0.23 0.833 0.54 0.13 0.46 0.88
D27 0.44 0.773 0.73 0.17 0.27 0.83
D28 0.59 0.563 0.89 0.16 0.11 0.84
D29 0.77 0.410 0.89 0.23 0.11 0.77

Table 26. Probability distribution of dry and wet spells in Kiremt season during late growth st
age of wheat at Fonko station
SMD PD PW PDD PDW PWD PWW
D30 0.87 0.13 0.94 0.31 0.06 0.69
D31 0.85 0.06 0.96 0.61 0.04 0.39
D32 0.88 0.04 0.98 0.55 0.02 0.45
D33 0.90 0.01 0.99 0.33 0.01 0.67
 58

4.8. Characterization of the Rainy season

4.8.1. Kiremt season

Hossana: The analysis of the results for Hossana showed that decade 25 is the wettest while
the driest is decade 9 (Appendix Table 20). The period between decade 16 and 27 had the hig
hest probability of wet decade after wet implying the chance of having good soil moisture for
planning agricultural operations during those period. In other words, decision making with
respect to planting of crops is fairly less risky for farmers. On the other hand, the decades outs
ide decade 27 should carefully be monitored as the plant may suffer from low soil moisture.

Fonko: At Fonko, the period between decade 16 and 27 had the highest chance of wet and
wet after wet during the main growing season (Appendix Table 20). Planning for sowing
crops on decade 16 can be a good determination but during the decades of October plants
could suffer from low soil moisture as the plant may require more water as it develops. Theref
ore, some soil and water conservation techniques should be exercised during the wettest perio
ds (decade16 - 27) to conserve soil moisture so that it can serve in the later days of the growin
g season. In general, in the main rainy season, agricultural operations enjoy favorable soil moi
sture conditions during the decades between 16 to 27 for the study areas. In the decades where
the chance of having wet after wet could create an opportunity to economize water so that it
could be used in the latter days of the crop development stages when the demand of water is
relatively high.

4.8.2. Length of growing period and their variability in kiremt season

Fonko: The minimum length of growing period of 141,142,146,147 and 149 days had been
observed in the year 2005, 1988,2006,2012,1992 and 1990 (Table 27). The main growing seas
on was found in the range of 150 to152 days and with the mean LGP of 150 days, standard
deviation of 2.9 days and coefficient of variation of 2% (Table 27).
 59

Table. 27. Onset, Cessation and Length of growing period of Wheat crop, Fonko station
year Onset Cessation LGP
1987 183 335 152
1988 193 335 142
1989 183 335 152
1990 186 335 149
1991 183 335 152
1992 188 335 147
1993 183 335 152
1994 183 335 152
1995 183 335 152
1996 185 335 150
1997 183 335 152
1998 185 335 150
1999 186 335 149
2000 183 335 152
2001 184 335 151
2002 185 335 150
2003 183 335 152
2004 183 335 152
2005 194 335 141
2006 189 335 146
2007 188 335 147
2008 185 335 150
2009 186 335 149
2010 184 335 151
2011 184 335 151
2012 189 335 146
2013 183 335 152
2014 183 335 152
2015 183 335 152
2016 184 335 151
mean 185 335 150
Std 2.956 0 2.956

Hossana: The minimum length of growing period of 144,148 and 149 days had been observe
d in the year 1988, 2008 and 2012 (Table 28). The main growing season was found in the ran
ge of 152 to161 days and with the mean LGP of 152 days, standard deviation of 2.6 days and
coefficient of variation of 2% (Table 28).
 60

Table 28. Onset, Cessation and Length of growing period of Wheat crop, Hossana station
year Onset Cessation LGP
1987 183 335 152
1988 191 335 144
1989 183 335 152
1990 183 335 152
1991 183 335 152
1992 183 338 155
1993 183 335 152
1994 183 335 152
1995 183 335 152
1996 183 335 152
1997 183 335 152
1998 183 335 152
1999 183 335 152
2000 183 344 161
2001 183 335 152
2002 183 335 152
2003 183 335 152
2004 183 335 152
2005 184 335 151
2006 185 341 156
2007 183 335 152
2008 187 335 148
2009 183 335 152
2010 183 335 152
2011 183 335 152
2012 186 335 149
2013 183 335 152
2014 183 335 152
2015 183 335 152
2016 183 335 152
mean 184 336 152
Std 1.69 1.99 2.59

4.9. Length of Growing Period and Crop Water Requirement of Wheat

Crop
 61

Length of growing period (LGP) is the time from sowing to harvest or the time from planting
to harvest. It can also be defined as the difference between the start of the season and end of
the season. Many definitions of cessation of growing season use a simple water balance equati
on. The date, in each year, that the water balances first falls to zero; this is a possible definitio
n of the cessation of the growing season.
Table 29. Estimated crop water requirement of Wheat crop

crop Total growing period Initial Crop dev. Mid-season Late season
(days) stage Stage stage stage
wheat 150 15 30 65 40
Planting date 1July
Initial stage, 15 days 1July-15July
Crop development stage, 30 days 16July-14August
Mid-season stage, 65 days 15August-19October
Late season stage, 40days 20October-29November
Last day of the harvest 29November

Estimation the Kc factor for each of the 4 growth stages of wheat crop (Tasumi, 2005)
Kc, initial stage = 0.35 kc, crop development stage=0.75 Kc, mid-season stage =1.15 kc, late
season stage = 0.45
Table. 30. Calculated Kc value for Wheat crop for growing stage
Month June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
ETo (mm/days) Hosanna 3.27 2.93 3.38 4.05 4.96 4.8 4.73
ETo (mm/days) at Fonko 3.96 3.42 3.96 4.37 4.80 4.58 4.60
Growth stages Initial Crop dev. Mid-season Late
stage stage season
Kc per.gr.stage 0.35 0.75 1.15 0.45
Kc calculated per.gr.stage 0.53 0.92 1.15
Kc calculated per.month 0.53 0.92 1.15 0.88 0.45

ETc calculated per.month 48.05 96.1 139.5 135.1 64.8

Hosana station mm/month
ETc calculated per.month 56.11 112.84 150.6 130.8 61.8
Fonko station mm/month

It can be seen from the table above that the months and growth stages do not correspond. As a
consequence the ETO and the Kc values do not correspond. Yet the ETcrop has to be determine
 62

d on a monthly basis. The crop water need for the whole growing season of wheat at Hosanna
station is 483.6 mm. The crop water need for the whole growing season of wheat at Fonko
station is 512.17 mm. A certain crop grown in a sunny and hot climate needs more water per
day than the same crop grown in a cloudy and cooler climate. There are, however, apart from
sunshine and temperature, other climatic factors which influence the crop water need. These
factors are humidity and wind speed. When it is dry, the crop water needs are higher than
when it is humid. In windy climates, the crops will use more water than in cool climates. The
highest crop water needs are thus found in areas which are hot, dry, windy and sunny. The
lowest values are found when it is cool, humid and cloudy with little or no wind. From the
above, it is clear that, the wheat crop grown in a Hosanna need less water per day than the
wheat crop grown in the Fonko area.

4.10. Trends in Long Term Characteristics of Kiremt Rainfall

Onset date: The median for the onset of kiremt rainfall is similar in both stations and it begins
on the first week of July (Table 8, 9). The median date of the start of the kiremt season was
characterized by low standard deviation (< 10 days) at Fonko, and Hosanna and hence, the sta
rt of rainy season in both stations are relatively stable.

Cessation date: Kiremt rainfall in the studied stations ceased starting from the end week of
November (at Fonko) to first week of December (at Hosanna) (Table 8, 9). The median date
of the end of the kiremt season was characterized by low standard deviation (< 10 days) at Fo
nko, and Hosanna and hence, the end of rainy season in both stations are relatively stable. He
nce, decisions related to terminal drought management practices and crop harvesting activities
requires great care. Moreover, a decreasing trend has been observed in the cessation of kiremt
rainfall in both stations.

Length of growing period (LGP): Average length of growing period in the study area varies
from 150 to 152 days depending on the location of the station (Table 8 and 9). The coefficient
of variation at Hosanna (1.7%) and Fonko (2%) also showed year to year variability of
LGP. The short LGP at Fonko there fore, resulted due to early cessation of rainfall in the area.
 63

5. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

5.1. CONCLUSION

The major objective of the study was to investigate the effect of annual and intra seasonal vari
ation in rainfall on a wheat crop performance in the study area using standard rainfall statistic
al descriptors or models. The onset, end and length of growing periods were analyzed using
the FAO water balance (FAO, 1978). Onset can be defined as the first wet-spell of the year at
least three days total 20 mm or more, provided there were no sequences of nine or more dry
less than 1 mm days in the subsequent 30 days) of the study area. Cessation is the first day of
a dry spell less than 1mm/day of at least 20 day’s duration that occurred after onset. The onset
of the growing season is the last week of the March but the amount is small for planting. Fro
m the Instat model used in the comparison, the effective start of rains is in the month of April
and the most advanced is in July. The effective termination date is in the month of October as
determined by the Instat models. Plants with long duration of growing season and crops that req
uire high moisture up to their vegetative and reproductive stages of development.

Evapotranspiration is considerably increase with the changing climate and thus crop water de
mand is increasing well water productivity should be increased in rainfed crop production.
Results derived by SPI method are similar to real drought situation except that in extremely
severe drought condition. This method is better for agricultural applications since it is simple
and effective.

The analysis used in the study area found accommodative for generating and estimation of the
onset date of the main rainy season and wet/dry spell probabilities and thus such kind of infor
mation is found to be important for construction of decision support system to improve the agr
icultural development of similar areas. For instance, planting in the main season should only
be considered to the farmers around the third decade of June and in first decade of July. Some
water harvesting is recommended as the probability of having repeated wetting days is higher
than the rest of the season, this will also help to conserve moisture for the later days at the end
of the growing season where planted crops would require more water. Even though, some
short comings are to be expected with regard to the completeness, accessibility and quality of
 64

the hydro meteorological data in the study area and in the country in general, it could be possi
ble to conclude that the models and indices used in this study are very useful for characterizati
on of rainfall potential and drought events in the area for the purpose of making knowledgeabl
e-decisions.

In both of the stations unimodal rainfall regime, dry spell frequency is higher during the perio
d close to onset and towards the end of the season. The mean start of the growing season is
the last week of the month of March for both stations where the growing season ends last
week of October in most of the years the planting time for long cycle crops like maize and
sorghum around Hossana and Fonko station should be performed after the end of March and
April respectively. However, since very high rainfall is expected in these areas during July/Au
gust and also the kiremt Wheat production, which highly aggravates soil loss, is common in th
e areas, proper design of soil and water conservation structures should be performed with caut
ion.

5.2. Recommendation

 As it was mentioned in the previous sections, daily rainfall analysis is very useful for agricult
ural planning. However, the analysis of daily rainfall was constrained by the availability of da
ily rainfall data. Therefore, future works should focus on the use of daily rainfall data for char
acterizing the two meteorological parameters (RF and CW).
 SPI drought index depicts that droughts in the study area varies spatially and temporally from
moderate to extreme, for both stations. Study shows higher percentage of occurrence of moder
ate drought in the area, where as extreme drought frequency increases on long time scale. Sho
rt term analysis shows the loss of soil moisture and agricultural droughts and it requires short
term measures like good irrigation system and crop rotation for the critical areas.
 To minimizing the risks of crop failure and ensure food security that can happen due to
climate variability is possible by integrating those indigenous and scientific knowledge, such
as sowing the crops on the right time and by exercising different climate change adaptation
mechanisms. Climate variability analysis is very useful for agricultural planning and producti
on of farmers and decision makers. The planting time for short cycle crop like Wheat around
Misha, Hosanna and Fonko area should be performed after the end of June and the begging of
 65

July respectively. However, since very high rainfall is expected in these areas during August/
September, which highly aggravates soil loss, is common in the areas, proper design of soil an
d water conservation structures should be performed with carefulness.
 Climate related hazard is a key factor which frequently cited as the main cause for crop failure
over the study area. Therefore the use of dependable, local-specific and timely climate inform
ation occasionally produced on daily, weekly, decadal, monthly, seasonally and beyond can
be used by the farmer’s community.
 NMA and agricultural sectors should helps all important climate related and agronomic infor
mation for the farmers so that it can enable the farmers to plan earlier for cropping season
undertake improved land management, soil conservation, flood control method and improve
farmers knowledge about proper use of weather information that apparently to minimize risks
of climate related hazard or seasonal rainfall variability.
 66

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7. APPENDICES

Appendix table 1 Standard meteorological decade

Decade no Decade no Date Decade no Decade no Date

1 January 1-10 19 July 1-10
2 11-20 20 11-20
3 21-31 21 21-31
4 February 1-10 22 August 1-10
5 11-20 23 11-20
6 21-29 24 21-31
7 March 1-10 25 September 1-10
8 11-20 26 11-20
9 21-31 27 21-30
10 April 1-10 28 October 1-10
11 11-20 29 11-20
12 21-30 30 21-31
13 May 1-10 31 November 1-10
14 11-20 32 11-20
15 21-31 33 21-30
16 June 1-10 34 December 1-10
17 11-20 35 11-20
18 21-30 36 21-31
 80

Appendix Table 2. Monthly decadal Rainfall of Fonko 1987 - 2001(mm)

Decade 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
1 0 0 0 0 0.06 0 0.09 0.34 2.35 0.12 0 4.33 13.73 7.23 0.62
2 0 0 0 0.91 1.49 22.11 0.74 0 11.03 15.24 0 0 6.18 12.61 48.37
3 0.42 17.7 0.14 0.61 0.06 0.93 0.06 0.23 38.58 13.76 0 0.01 0.24 10.1 0.01
4 0.04 0 5.23 9.68 2.28 15.04 15.08 2.63 9.41 63.71 0 12.46 0.4 0 15.82
5 0 0.22 2.57 21.8 2.52 0.17 22.34 10.76 0.25 7.46 0.49 3.67 0.1 0 28.76
6 0.33 0 35.72 41.92 1.88 0 45.4 2.32 13.15 3.55 0 0.28 3.27 0 0.07
7 0 0.66 25.5 42.02 34.4 0.1 46.77 17.93 2.93 0.67 12.4 9.12 4.66 0.09 34.68
8 10.96 3.59 1.57 77.44 0 53.01 1.68 85.19 35.2 2.53 7.65 6.4 36.85 4.02 1.58
9 0.18 11.77 0.08 5.58 0.11 51.35 25.52 109 2.26 0.27 39.64 2.95 15.9 120.7 16.25
10 3.02 13.12 74.12 37.12 47.16 51.48 112.7 17.76 39.31 7.26 0.45 28.61 36.48 121.2 13.47
11 0.96 36.9 145.6 2.57 78.77 21.34 16.57 0.03 0.42 81.73 50.75 55.64 19.1 26.32 65.3
12 0 93.26 109.3 0.15 60.52 135.2 197.9 14.9 4.89 58.01 59.45 60.87 7.94 145 80.83
13 39 186 17.79 44.87 0.47 1.55 0.01 29.45 13.62 19.39 29.92 8.54 33.96 0.2 140.5
14 104.5 41.85 71.17 37.73 3.62 21.48 18.85 1.58 5.82 43.79 111 65.41 137.3 52.71 88.18
15 106.1 38.66 3.29 138.3 4.75 28.94 73.61 3.74 20.05 103.7 4.49 73.52 26.82 50.65 18
16 84.53 57.18 47.09 111.5 46 90.38 88.35 42.91 41.73 73.19 103.9 0.62 118.8 40.51 45.8
17 76.27 71.19 147.5 62.46 25.88 58.99 80.08 71.58 61.51 127.9 81.22 60.52 143.5 110.7 69.55
18 140.8 54.38 85.7 61.13 53.76 41.82 85.81 67.53 76.1 56.12 51.67 58.16 41.27 83.87 96.75
19 52.29 17.16 80.96 54.93 109.6 52.87 129.9 74.93 74.01 67.71 68.82 68.48 58.52 54.94 75.68
20 44.23 53.48 93.02 43.61 113.9 132.1 141.8 78.43 89.5 96.61 113.3 58.96 119.1 129.4 67.58
21 42.65 122.4 118.4 53.95 147.4 135.9 35.75 139.5 152.2 64.04 140.4 50.23 170.8 126.7 142.8
22 82.35 68.59 109.8 29.57 41.69 73.27 70.47 83.56 106.9 89.35 70.78 17.58 71.76 77.81 73.62
23 92.46 28.7 92.69 42.68 46.1 47.72 88.19 74.49 126.8 55.29 47.97 39.32 85.23 187.7 34.37
24 72.81 45.9 111.3 31.15 66.64 77.14 103.4 123.1 79.15 91.65 63.86 91.95 74.77 53.91 82
25 103.9 68.11 71.88 82.65 107.8 137.2 109.7 100.8 104.6 71.06 81.96 143 82.35 65.14 90.88
26 49.25 99.34 124.4 57.41 94.64 88.82 114.5 72.2 96.5 119.3 96.24 81.06 114.6 72.77 86.57
 81

27 6.29 38.84 49.85 67.63 125.1 85.99 61.07 66.57 25.08 133 33.93 48.78 138.6 28.55 93.89
28 0 78.59 21.26 45.78 72.31 16.95 47.16 20.99 64.63 125.4 0.01 0.57 79.72 94.57 110.5
29 0.14 0 1.64 81.15 78.64 53.5 0.82 0 29.5 10.16 13.97 37.76 0.14 148.4 97.15
30 0 0.11 0.95 22.41 0.24 7.82 0 0.67 0.36 176.6 0.11 3.89 0.31 2.27 74.57
31 0 0.01 0.21 0 0 0.07 0.7 0 6.21 0 6.4 3.77 0.37 32.84 0.13
32 0 13.99 0.1 0.01 0 0.04 0.31 0 0.02 0 0.1 3.88 6.47 5.56 0
33 0 19.64 0 1.11 0 1.26 0 0.28 3.32 0 1.93 0.33 20.34 0.02 0
34 0.05 0 1.34 0.28 1.11 0.13 0.17 0.71 0 0 0.03 0 1.89 0.05 0
35 0.02 0 0 0 0.15 0.5 0.23 1.15 0.1 0 0 4.08 0.29 0.04 0.07
36 0 0 0 0 0.05 2.2 2.11 1.8 3.56 0.01 0 0.86 3.09 0.09 0

Appendix Table 3. Monthly decadal Rainfall

of Fonko 2002-2016 (mm)
Decad 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1 2.92 0 0.2 15.13 4.95 0 0 0.45 0.06 0 0 4.81 0 0 8.08
2 18.94 0 2.61 13.53 0.68 37.59 20.28 0.34 0.08 0.6 19.23 2.81 2.12 6.13 1.26
3 0 0 0.09 0 0.24 7.41 0.81 0 9.64 0 23.47 0.1 3.37 0 2.98
4 0 0 15.46 0 0 0 0 0 16.85 3.46 0.42 47.67 0.06 0 2.53
5 4.01 0 2.07 1.45 0.27 0.22 0 2.28 0.84 0 2.23 131.5 4.31 0.18 0.11
6 0.48 1.06 0 0 3.75 0.04 9.3 1.99 0.03 0.01 0.01 95.57 0 0 0.45
7 35.38 0 73.18 102.7 0 10.29 20.18 3.08 0 0 0 84.02 67.44 2.14 0.73
8 14.94 0 37.78 12.35 5.9 33.47 2.79 3.69 22.89 0 0.05 35.61 70.19 0.09 24.29
9 23.87 1.42 33.18 0.56 6.27 72.16 0.1 53.31 8.05 11.82 98.07 123.3 0 74.24 164.4
10 0.81 36.56 2.51 14.84 0 155.8 0 71.77 8.96 7.74 78.19 38.67 5.81 286.2 23.2
11 8.9 72.75 0.65 36.52 96.35 2.99 47.63 20.38 97.46 8.28 5.26 154.5 5.55 40.55 119.9
12 62.88 93.14 85.43 1.13 86.22 22.05 173.1 63.16 0.45 12.04 0.27 109.4 28.51 23.78 134.8
13 16.62 206.3 54.99 18.81 13.34 8.81 171.9 26.86 16.2 49.81 0.03 147.3 36.15 100.7 157.2
14 19.19 38.67 40.57 32.82 7.45 4.44 76.43 3.53 26.99 9.57 56.26 119.1 102.2 9.07 23.41
 82

15 120.9 18.59 68.39 12.65 0 63.04 35.97 38.52 118.2 24.46 8.79 105.5 151.2 3.51 46.3
16 57.53 67.92 67.39 28.77 30.01 83.66 20.12 57.47 35.77 80.99 10.27 64.32 86.07 48.96 75.16
17 77.82 40.87 68.29 136.3 71.11 46.68 38.63 56.41 129.7 49.33 7.3 58.24 75.28 84.95 234.6
18 64.93 68.19 92.95 73.79 69.39 91.67 45.7 84.56 127.3 23.07 53 54.14 82.08 122 68.44
19 59.34 54.32 116.7 14.82 49.33 53.05 48.89 117.8 80.94 74.31 33.25 92.92 99.85 168.9 147.6
20 91.23 48.6 103.7 99.57 45.24 91.85 31.63 46.59 15.96 51.62 107.6 47.57 157.6 100.1 191.2
21 129.4 60.22 64.88 16.78 77.09 74.49 105.7 60.89 63.65 60.6 58.86 120.1 183.7 215.8 203.9
22 127 71.44 60.11 65.62 50.52 90.9 40.52 105.8 34.7 43.28 74.06 47.7 158.7 136.8 112.2
23 37.18 73.58 85.92 64.49 70.99 56.18 67.61 61.53 70.53 53.9 86.72 72.46 194 139.2 96.67
24 111.2 119.4 120.9 70.97 97.46 72.99 68.48 97.98 39.65 25.29 30.38 128.9 128.5 183.8 94.2
25 28.83 130.9 81.01 34.09 62.02 46.49 80.08 65.25 108 110.3 71.61 132.9 198.4 148.1 134.3
26 136.3 93.85 55.69 56.33 67.97 77.88 111.4 94.68 92.9 74.32 18.85 110.5 132.5 138 164.6
27 87.08 83.74 10.26 12.61 40.61 43.72 32.42 23.93 109.4 26.99 64.72 68.38 83.23 71.06 30.04
28 112.8 83.21 7.18 0.02 4.37 17.65 43.91 75.02 35.49 0.46 75.17 12.63 2.86 2.86 181.9
29 164.6 41.54 6.08 7.56 1.08 0.6 2.33 3.08 1.75 0.99 51.09 17.45 0.14 0.07 46.32
30 15.31 16.07 1.07 4.44 0 0.43 0.01 33.03 0 49.3 16.99 0.9 0 11.04 5.98
31 0.17 3.93 0 0.02 13.26 2.21 0 0.03 2.62 93.31 5.37 0 20.07 0.51 11.86
32 0.01 0.73 13.38 0 0 2.16 1.81 0 0 0 0 0.03 1.03 1.91 74.3
33 0 0 0 3.09 0.01 0.59 0 1 0 0 0.1 1.06 9.87 0.63 0.16
34 0.64 0.12 1.94 3.31 16.73 0 0 0.46 0 0.05 0.09 5.08 3.85 0.04 0
35 1.61 0.96 0.3 10.16 0.02 1.3 0 0 0 0 42.51 13.7 0 0.27 0
36 2.18 0 2.2 9.81 0 2.5 0 0.12 0 0.07 27.11 5.48 0 0 13.01
Appendix Table 4. Monthly RF of Fonko station from 1987-2016(mm)

Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total
1987 0.42 0.04 11.46 3.98 247.82 290.02 145.33 248.03 164.93 1.47 0 0.08 1113.58
1988 17.7 0.22 16.01 143.29 266.51 182.77 193.04 143.21 206.28 78.7 33.64 0 1281.37
1989 0.14 43.53 27.16 328.97 92.25 280.2 292.37 313.78 246.15 23.85 0.31 1.34 1650.06
1990 2.47 114.38 107.16 51.12 289.22 184.17 117.59 164.38 163.56 114.6 1.39 0.05 1310.1
 83

1991 3.85 38.81 40.24 146.8 53.87 176.78 308.43 204.43 310.56 84 0.55 0.76 1369.07
1992 37.94 0.44 145.08 168.87 133.53 159.1 333.54 267.34 195.76 61.67 1.41 2.81 1507.48
1993 12.58 117.8 128.81 225.51 176.71 289.18 241.49 310.65 230.6 1.28 0.62 2.79 1738.02
1994 2.72 19.66 223.47 44.03 38.64 215.94 304.57 294.12 169.06 0.67 4.91 2.98 1320.79
1995 59.69 16.95 76.77 6.23 69.13 208.32 331.53 321.91 189.88 52.23 3.69 3.78 1340.11
1996 84.46 19.92 10.03 159.17 214.44 251.01 250.14 216.91 379.06 193.33 0 0.01 1778.48
1997 0 11.07 49.57 128.67 225.25 195.21 332.89 186.43 141.17 19.57 2.99 4.27 1297.08
1998 8.37 15.62 38.02 126.59 139.07 185.7 126.77 272.34 133.92 45.64 4.21 18.58 1114.85
1999 6.9 7.66 89.37 42.93 288.74 244 363.85 237.03 347.1 1.51 28.7 9.67 1667.48
2000 23.64 0.07 245.8 171.66 154.2 233.56 313.88 321.25 165.85 246.14 38.42 0.7 1915.16
2001 63.35 64.26 26.24 286.19 151.95 237.07 293.67 198.21 287.5 185.02 0.12 1.47 1795.07
2002 20.46 38.57 40.92 88.38 195.38 200.46 346.97 179.05 326.46 192.49 0.65 3.78 1633.58
2003 0 1.06 37.97 350.03 126.95 172.46 200.64 315.14 268.24 83.47 0.92 1.22 1558.11
2004 10.14 45.63 111.16 133.71 172.52 282.59 230.05 291.3 71.73 10.33 15.31 17.5 1391.97
2005 13.67 102.32 18.6 67.36 71.11 227.19 179.94 172.49 68.96 12.02 3.09 18.42 955.16
2006 0.91 4.02 12.17 195.94 24.92 201.7 164.69 238.69 113.49 4.57 26.56 0.02 987.69
2007 47.4 0.26 93.4 203.36 59.25 238.88 194.3 244.52 135.41 52.15 4.87 1.39 1275.18
2008 21.1 29.49 2.91 384.46 136.36 137.42 167.13 218.32 186.94 11.9 1.81 0 1297.83
2009 0.79 6.39 129.73 110.43 89.23 263.23 218.45 221.49 190.85 42.91 1.48 0.18 1275.17
2010 26.57 0.88 38.29 114.16 181.67 334.73 114.6 208.88 250.7 4.38 0 0 1274.86
2011 4.07 0.01 17.07 63.7 106.34 136.71 165.91 181.27 127.2 143.62 0.04 0.07 946.01
2012 43.11 2.24 173.82 8.04 74.8 93.9 240.59 177.98 146.26 96.71 0.19 72.72 1130.35
2013 42.52 320.83 196.66 384.9 308.02 210.84 205 336.41 202.27 18.36 1.1 24.28 2251.18
2014 5.57 71.73 76 64.24 337.99 257.15 492.45 529.4 225.18 19.19 15.76 0.01 2094.68
2015 6.14 2.33 315.98 167.85 87.34 355.5 469.95 463.52 238.39 11.9 2.59 6.92 2128.41
2016 8.2 1.3 211.8 408.32 142.29 419.46 542.84 318.44 379.43 69.71 74.46 15.88 2592.14
 84

Appendix Table 5. Monthly maximum temperature of Fonko station( oc)

Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
1987 26.1 27.09 27.66 28.34 25.24 21.42 20.37 22.09 22.55 25.23 26.05 25.35
1988 26.91 28.91 28.42 26.8 24.01 23.76 18.71 19.45 21.91 23.54 25.58 25.74
1989 27.73 27.73 28 26.52 27.04 20.14 19.33 21.13 21.57 24.39 25.71 25.56
1990 26.91 25.64 25.82 27.42 22.76 22.24 20.88 20.42 23.37 24.69 26.6 26.35
1991 26.73 27.59 29.09 26.3 26.85 22.55 17.93 20.54 21.06 23.15 25.27 25.9
1992 24.87 27.56 25.1 24.61 26.15 21.64 18.23 21.15 22.23 24.2 25.76 24.78
1993 25.52 24.83 27.78 26.68 26.91 23.32 20.03 20.86 22.55 25.95 25.92 25.89
1994 26.93 28.52 27.45 27.29 27.87 23.37 20.3 21.39 24.45 25.58 26.25 26.12
1995 25.94 28.03 28.23 29.2 27.47 24.05 19.77 19.01 22.76 25.24 25.58 26.39
1996 24.99 26.51 28.68 27.32 24.92 21.69 19.05 21.02 22.69 23.98 26.11 26.57
1997 28.08 30.33 28.58 27.96 26.14 20.66 17.3 19.92 24.04 25.93 25.79 27.37
1998 27.16 27.33 28.07 28.27 27.86 25.09 19.16 21.51 24.18 26.01 27.64 26.38
1999 27.8 29.46 28.17 28.2 23 20.41 17.09 20.14 21.24 23.81 24.85 25.95
2000 25.72 29.17 26.33 25.81 26.14 22.48 20.54 22.8 24.88 23.59 24.28 26.41
2001 27.61 27.34 29.05 27.96 27.27 21.34 18.18 20.33 21.57 22.41 25.58 26.86
2002 27.22 28.38 29.53 28.09 26.73 24.03 19.64 22.1 23.24 24.76 25.57 26.82
2003 28.09 28.99 29.86 27.08 28.12 23.7 21.68 21.52 24.57 26.67 27.23 27.71
2004 27.86 29.11 27.76 30.46 28.38 24.6 20.82 22.92 25.95 26.97 27.46 27.3
2005 27.96 29.11 29.7 30.13 30.14 26.26 23.86 25.05 25.83 27.44 28.41 27.2
2006 28.69 29.7 30.16 29.03 30.27 24.12 21.78 22.33 25.2 27.55 27.4 27.34
2007 27.09 29.76 29.22 28.28 29.23 24.25 22.6 23.91 25.04 26.62 26.9 28.07
2008 27.27 29.95 29.93 26.28 25.82 23.47 21.28 23.36 24.15 26.67 25.98 26.9
2009 28.09 29.5 28.24 28.62 28.57 24.45 20.56 22.56 24.34 24.92 26.34 26.57
2010 27.48 29.68 29.32 28.28 28.3 20.41 21.49 21.97 22.91 25.73 26.32 26.43
2011 28.01 28.98 29.83 26.81 27.11 24.99 20.75 23.13 24.79 25.48 26.53 27.01
2012 26.52 29.18 27.92 28.93 28.81 26.14 21.94 24.64 25.46 24.17 27.19 25.44
 85

2013 26.87 25.31 26.68 25.77 24.12 22.01 19.01 20.31 22.09 25.65 25.68 24.75
2014 25.25 25.9 24.7 25.78 21.54 20.74 17.4 18.04 20.03 22.26 22.91 23.9
2015 24.8 26.62 25.45 23.72 23.48 19.66 17.45 18.5 20.16 22.03 23.75 23.9
2016 25.41 27.18 25.51 22.11 21.53 17.76 16.13 17.81 19.28 21.09 21.52 22.29
Appendix Table 6. Monthly minimum temperature of Fonko station(oc)

year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
1987 6.91 6.62 8.74 9.34 10.24 10.44 10.6 10.53 8.93 6.94 7.98 6.73
1988 7.58 9.52 9.87 11.15 10.5 11.59 10.82 9.95 9.06 7.52 7.27 6.78
1989 6.62 10.66 9.8 11.58 10.04 11.17 10.34 10.25 9.41 7.29 7.76 8.65
1990 9.01 12.3 11.2 10.75 11.68 12.26 11.17 11.39 9.81 8.79 9.2 7.96
1991 9.94 11.21 10.5 11.48 9.71 10.97 11.92 10.78 9.87 8.21 6.2 7.77
1992 9.21 8.99 11.3 10.93 9.24 10.85 11.11 10.54 9.27 8.46 8.89 10.23
1993 9.66 11.93 11.82 11.25 11.58 11.54 11 11.03 8.9 8.22 8.17 7.53
1994 9.32 11.55 11.59 10.46 9.67 11.98 11.58 11.11 9.43 7.31 8.53 7.91
1995 11.4 11.62 11.23 10.97 9.91 11.57 11.41 10.94 9.39 8.38 7.61 8.76
1996 11 9.56 10.2 11.99 11.14 11.17 11.07 10.28 10.11 9.24 7.89 7.6
1997 8.22 11.21 11.43 11.3 10.2 11.56 11.34 10.18 8.4 7.73 7.92 7.7
1998 8.32 10.82 11.03 11.81 9.85 11.63 11.5 10.58 9.06 8.82 9.21 9.85
1999 10.6 10.2 12.21 10.75 11.94 11.95 11.79 10.58 10.9 8.06 8.12 10.51
2000 10.2 9.04 12.37 10.58 10.71 11.58 11.7 10.92 8.97 10.06 10.12 9.07
2001 11.7 12.8 12.74 12.73 12.33 12.55 11.68 11.92 10.62 9.68 6.87 7.76
2002 8.76 10.25 11.07 10.14 10.38 10.71 11.63 10.22 9.88 9.29 7.31 7.38
2003 7.46 8.65 9.4 11.87 10.31 10.82 10.42 10.87 9.68 9.36 8.45 10.62
2004 9.44 11.16 12.47 12.4 10.95 11.88 11.51 10.91 9.09 9.06 9.33 10.22
2005 8.96 11.57 12.57 12.34 10.89 11.2 11.14 10.35 9.46 9.01 9.41 11.75
2006 9.7 11.04 11.31 12.84 9.11 11.61 11.78 10.59 10.32 8.7 9.56 7.74
2007 12 9.6 12.31 12.24 9.75 11.44 11.6 10.33 10.41 9.16 9.06 8.85
2008 10.3 11.21 11.18 13.4 11.16 12.3 11.36 11.81 10.79 8.3 7.57 6.92
 86

2009 9.33 12.27 12.25 11.61 10.32 11.9 11.69 11.73 9.92 9.52 9.86 9.08
2010 11.1 11.05 11.1 11.53 12.14 12.46 11.63 10.72 10.85 8.24 7.74 6.65
2011 9.4 8.61 9.38 10.38 10.05 11.15 11.6 10.15 9.73 10.52 7.75 7.93
2012 10.5 10.74 12.06 10.99 10.78 10.85 11.79 10.9 9.6 8.95 8.77 11.71
2013 11.3 13.46 11.97 13.25 13.05 12.26 11.58 11.61 10.23 8.73 8.81 8.82
2014 7.77 8.14 9.44 9.47 10.78 10.77 10.28 10.09 9.13 7.31 8.01 6.24
2015 6.58 7.61 8.97 9.38 9.13 11 11.4 9.95 8.75 7.46 7.08 7.1
2016 8.46 8.3 10.37 10.72 10.3 11.26 10.62 10.09 9.41 7.55 7.07 7.9

Appendix Table7. Fonko station Estimated ETo (mm/month) - Hargreaves method

Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Annual
1987 144.6 145.2 169.3 169.5 147.9 114.0 110.3 125.3 129.3 150.0 139.2 136.9 1255.4
1988 148.3 150.9 172.0 154.4 138.5 126.2 96.9 108.3 124.6 138.1 137.7 139.1 1220.2
1989 154.6 141.5 169.3 151.1 161.0 102.2 103.7 119.4 121.3 144.0 137.6 134.6 1224.2
1990 145.6 124.4 150.1 159.8 125.3 112.9 111.7 109.5 132.3 142.6 140.0 140.5 1171.5
1991 142.5 139.4 175.3 149.9 160.5 120.0 85.0 113.0 116.2 134.0 137.7 138.3 1201.8
1992 132.7 144.0 144.6 139.6 156.9 114.1 91.8 118.4 126.2 140.2 135.7 126.3 1168.2
1993 135.6 120.3 162.4 153.2 155.9 123.3 106.1 114.3 129.4 152.1 138.1 138.6 1200.6
1994 145.1 144.3 160.7 159.6 167.7 122.1 105.6 118.0 140.6 151.5 139.3 139.3 1263.8
1995 133.8 141.1 167.3 171.6 164.3 128.3 102.3 100.6 129.4 147.1 137.1 139.3 1238.9
1996 128.8 136.6 173.1 155.6 142.9 113.2 98.4 118.5 126.7 136.8 139.7 142.5 1193.9
1997 154.2 156.2 169.3 162.1 154.3 104.3 83.1 110.8 140.5 153.0 137.8 146.9 1234.8
1998 148.4 138.7 166.7 162.9 167.2 135.3 97.2 120.9 139.8 151.2 146.3 136.9 1277.2
1999 147.7 152.9 164.1 165.2 126.1 100.8 78.7 110.8 113.8 138.6 131.9 132.7 1160.1
2000 135.6 153.3 150.1 149.1 152.9 117.3 106.9 129.1 144.7 131.9 123.9 138.8 1238.9
2001 143.7 133.7 169.0 158.0 156.2 105.1 88.4 106.3 117.2 125.0 138.4 143.9 1177.5
2002 148.0 146.3 177.0 165.9 158.0 130.9 100.3 126.5 131.2 141.8 137.6 144.3 1284.1
2003 155.5 152.9 183.1 154.2 167.9 128.3 120.4 119.9 140.8 154.3 145.3 143.3 1323.0
 87

2004 150.5 148.8 160.3 176.9 168.1 131.1 109.8 130.0 151.5 156.9 144.9 141.7 1327.1
2005 152.1 147.9 174.2 174.7 180.7 144.6 133.4 147.1 149.8 160.1 150.5 137.4 1404.5
2006 155.1 152.7 180.9 165.4 185.3 128.7 115.9 126.9 143.3 161.5 144.1 146.7 1354.1
2007 139.5 155.8 171.5 161.7 176.9 130.1 122.7 139.1 141.9 154.4 142.1 149.0 1339.2
2008 145.0 153.9 179.6 143.3 149.3 121.6 113.9 130.0 134.7 156.6 139.5 145.5 1271.2
2009 152.2 148.7 164.5 165.9 171.0 130.0 107.1 124.3 138.6 142.3 137.1 139.7 1302.2
2010 144.4 152.5 175.4 163.7 164.3 98.5 114.3 123.8 125.8 150.6 141.2 143.2 1262.8
2011 151.5 152.9 182.9 156.5 161.5 136.1 108.9 134.1 142.1 143.4 142.4 144.4 1326.7
2012 139.8 150.2 162.7 169.7 171.6 144.8 117.0 142.5 147.0 138.8 144.4 126.4 1345.3
2013 140.0 118.5 154.0 140.1 130.1 111.3 95.6 107.6 122.2 149.0 135.4 129.4 1119.3
2014 138.0 135.9 147.3 151.8 119.7 108.1 89.5 97.1 111.7 130.4 120.7 129.5 1099.0
2015 137.6 141.0 153.7 138.0 138.9 99.4 84.0 101.2 113.8 128.6 127.5 128.0 1107.5
2016 137.6 143.0 150.4 122.5 121.4 84.0 77.6 95.3 105.5 122.4 114.7 117.0 1037.3
Average 144.3 144.1 166.0 157.1 154.7 118.9 102.6 119.0 131.1 144.2 137.6 138.0 1237.7

Appendix Table 8. Monthly decadal Rainfall of Hosanna 1987-2001(mm)

decade 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
1 0 0 0 1.64 10.8 49.6 1.28 2 30.73 43.73 1.17 0.4 24.6 37.22 110
2 0 0 0 6.2 0.41 19.68 2.38 3.96 39.21 23.98 0 0.53 5.97 29.54 9.98
3 3.33 54.16 3.74 2.15 16.39 62.33 41.59 14.48 62.36 126.6 0.54 22.11 4.56 0 27.07
4 0.89 0.03 16.01 43.34 15.77 8.81 54.56 24.77 23.36 35.36 2.98 61.7 4.09 0.22 74.71
5 0 1.22 15.48 108.2 8.27 0.2 132.9 16.24 31.49 17.69 3.08 7.55 11.39 0.21 8.75
6 0 1.15 81.07 64.88 46.48 10.08 99.05 20.09 13.42 3.62 24.05 11.82 14.91 1.08 98.66
7 0.71 5.74 56.69 104.9 0.5 124.2 3.95 153.6 61.64 8.87 29.36 11.44 80.26 12.34 11.25
8 20.05 8.78 15.56 31.67 7.89 98.19 27.7 81.55 11.04 2.81 71.34 35.92 61.31 122.4 43.29
9 8.23 43.37 1.55 66.44 39.65 93.52 210.9 111.1 90.87 21.7 5.04 81.17 80.75 217.7 31.03
10 14.44 36.86 124.8 40.62 120.2 57.21 34.7 1.33 4.41 125.2 82.57 72.52 44.95 38.55 95.81
11 8.43 100.5 182.5 2.76 151 178.4 158.1 60.61 51.81 119 111.1 156.6 74 179.6 94.83
 88

12 0 140.1 180.9 87.56 34.16 22.44 10.49 69.91 18.46 64.01 65.45 26.48 22.25 0.49 148.9
13 62.46 191.1 76.45 59.57 37.56 65.31 49.18 9.75 55.06 68.15 177.2 83.84 208.6 86.35 143
14 150.6 87.23 124.6 199.3 19.48 74.15 131.3 11.11 43.52 135.7 22.64 127.8 154 106.3 26.9
15 182.8 102 44.9 224.4 132.1 172 172.3 100.4 98.87 157.4 217.6 45.74 216.1 109 98.46
16 155.7 130.6 148.6 96.87 79.38 118.8 121.4 174.4 151.9 168.6 237.2 142.4 179.3 99.19 153.2
17 170 194.3 204.1 125.7 104.6 89.44 221 139.7 168.4 119.8 145.4 133.4 144.7 173.2 178.8
18 203.1 133 116.5 144.6 275.7 129 203.1 162.5 197.7 151.4 132.6 173.8 146.2 224.6 139.3
19 150.2 67.03 166.4 88.47 169.8 230.3 270.2 133.9 140.6 174.4 174.1 112.3 186.7 117.8 156.9
20 130.7 156.1 199.9 121.7 241.9 257.6 83.17 193.7 200.2 149.9 254.9 91.41 242.9 221.4 224.6
21 160.9 258 178.8 52.97 102.9 136.9 155.6 270.1 217.4 188.9 133.6 80.97 223.5 246.1 195.3
22 177.9 133.2 213.6 132.2 136.3 129.2 231.4 151.3 144.4 112.1 109 123.4 135.2 117.2 106.6
23 213.9 88.03 186.2 102.5 101.5 108.5 189.1 214.8 185.3 166.6 114.1 125.3 153.4 298.9 164.8
24 162.1 129.2 219.3 152.4 187.6 267.7 175.5 237.3 172.6 178.7 176.6 285.8 150.1 149.9 168.2
25 208.8 126.5 142.9 143.3 161.5 152 181.2 143 200.8 203.6 143 137 199.4 130.1 133.3
26 75.92 188.6 194.6 106.7 243.7 123.1 138.9 162.6 98.99 261.1 88.33 153.7 207.6 158.3 139.7
27 48.03 76.7 95.82 119.6 137.2 56.76 101.9 67.85 132 177.2 1.46 28.12 144.8 80.25 180.7
28 6.82 132.9 41.88 85.31 99.3 52.26 3.9 0.22 103.2 42.08 30.31 66.24 8.68 82.8 145.8
29 3.73 0.66 6.4 62.09 22.98 31.2 0 5.49 8.16 256.2 3.22 13.44 14.89 223.6 144.5
30 2.14 2.21 4.57 15.39 0 8.42 24.46 0.33 44.5 6.33 13.31 13.64 11.24 32.43 1.78
31 2.84 0.86 17.51 1.89 0.28 1.09 5.24 0 11.95 0.04 2.31 17.25 7.35 70.32 11.68
32 1.06 24.15 2.31 9.45 0.03 7.49 0.05 1.69 8.59 0.47 4.54 4.29 53.04 68.79 0
33 2.34 25.01 1.02 12.41 1.58 26.37 1.21 23.08 8.85 0 0.26 1.52 14.9 1.97 0
34 0.91 0 6.93 1.91 5.09 6.17 3.38 0.11 2.3 0 0 14.41 4.54 0.24 0.86
35 2.55 0.39 0.51 0.01 0.74 24.82 0 7.03 15.67 0.09 0 3.32 8.63 4.23 0
36 1.3 0 0.66 0.07 0.09 2.66 6.71 4.21 4.43 0.74 18.8 46.32 15.31 20.9 2.91
 89

Appendix Table 9. Monthly decadal Rainfall of Hosanna 2002 - 2016 (mm)

decade 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1 56.39 0 5.81 39.48 1.83 52.63 41.68 4.11 1.17 2.63 0.81 11.79 0.23 3.7 3.68
2 0.04 0 1.16 0 8.36 29.88 12.39 0 9.98 0 131.6 4.24 5.47 0 0.82
3 0 0 23.65 0 0.01 20.17 0.43 0.48 53.08 13.17 4.99 47.51 0.21 0 7.12
4 8.59 0 16.33 15.99 2.11 0.15 0.01 3.74 15.85 0.01 13.26 137.6 4.34 0.03 0.23
5 9.77 1.04 0.21 3.59 22.77 1.1 15.85 17.41 4.07 0.49 2.53 122.8 0 0.07 1.5
6 71.84 0 49.82 145.1 0.15 0.72 32.95 6.73 0 0 1.79 63.6 50.23 1.65 1.85
7 28.42 0 132.2 34.75 23.69 47.37 53.23 14.36 29.02 0.01 4.52 38.31 49.4 0 4.31
8 35.37 0 77.05 9.72 21.55 10.28 2.97 50.55 53.42 5.48 38.28 101.9 0 10.7 69.11
9 23.23 50.6 26.49 36.87 0.68 126.4 0 175.9 31.18 42.16 199.9 125.8 8.67 161.3 7.38
10 51.12 64.21 0.01 68.73 141.4 206.6 65.62 16.22 10.7 38.58 51.94 173.7 2.71 16.58 83.07
11 109.6 165.5 85.93 8.72 155.7 65.51 215.8 111.6 12 6.58 2.12 152.6 20.2 26.94 126.6
12 72.84 257.4 72.6 50.7 34.3 53.99 202 47.03 33.84 169.5 8.45 182.7 18.51 56.51 93.36
13 55.38 100.2 117.1 68.45 19.84 25.48 129.3 20.05 100.4 39.09 106.7 194.2 105 48.9 35.82
14 178.4 61.39 102 47.24 1.8 23.33 84.88 90.6 134.8 43.22 66.22 148.6 121.6 7.24 47.62
15 182.5 113.6 168.9 75.02 93.07 102.4 65.85 135.4 147.6 167.6 51.26 84.85 129.7 64.96 69.9
16 157.4 171.9 196.3 215.8 166.4 172 127.8 143.9 229.6 119 56.33 128.1 142.5 68.49 198.9
17 200.4 145.1 198 186.1 168.1 157.8 110.7 191.7 216.8 59.64 105.7 111 145.7 141.6 105.7
18 118.6 156.4 259.9 74.09 130.1 153.1 171.1 206.7 162.3 149.5 86.35 184.1 221.3 230.8 153.6
19 194.5 181 214.9 214.2 96.13 103.2 94.42 95.55 67.58 192.2 179.3 104.9 208.3 216.9 250
20 239.8 182.8 172.8 55.04 170 174.1 110 162.3 144 130 113.5 180.1 253.2 189 216.9
21 292.6 192.1 151.2 159.7 131 178.1 176.3 201.8 126.4 171 171.4 146.2 152.2 218 136.4
22 104.9 185.9 148.7 118.5 155.3 181.3 148.8 83.97 154.8 140.5 162.8 158.6 280.6 211.6 150.7
23 174 223.1 205.1 160 146.3 123.5 155.8 192 83.06 85.47 65.75 246.6 239 232.5 126.5
24 133.5 256.6 192.5 128.5 147.6 144.1 193.4 114.6 188.7 195.7 162.1 196 262.8 228.4 233.7
25 193 195.5 126.8 79.33 130.5 105.9 256.7 160.6 172.5 165.2 63.92 199.1 158.8 139.5 201.1
 90

26 181.9 164.9 61.81 66.5 101 143.6 95.42 101.4 165 94.71 106.7 95.24 85.61 97.56 46.32
27 169.1 185.5 67.81 0.79 31.42 79.9 75.82 115.3 65.52 22.92 111.7 61.74 7.63 16.81 128.2
28 180.2 115 46.7 30.7 10.85 92.76 13.79 25.57 13.09 10.26 82.77 28.75 0.53 0.43 51.1
29 95.28 105.6 28.31 9.82 0.22 3.62 10.96 53.74 0.44 100.7 43.04 12.16 0 9.35 8.22
30 16.84 40.05 0.05 2.27 3.68 3.05 9.89 5.88 4.89 146.7 6.93 0.3 30.03 7.17 14.21
31 0.07 18.09 36.23 0 16.87 0.37 21.26 0.13 0.17 0 0.02 1.37 1.15 0.28 60.54
32 0 0.85 2.69 17.77 1.01 18.39 1.13 5.96 0.26 0 0.93 8.04 9.59 0.07 1.62
33 2.85 0 5.77 0.27 55.34 2.92 0 5.89 0 3.01 2.5 4.77 8.95 0.78 0
34 0.72 22.36 1.22 35.48 0.03 2.22 0.06 0.35 0 0.07 56.05 26.74 0 0.18 0
35 6.29 0.68 5.94 33.42 0.69 5.75 0 3.67 0 0 51.11 5.59 0 0.03 7.87
36 0 1.62 40.44 19.15 0 8.06 0.17 0.06 0 0.21 50.15 9.86 0 8.26 2.79

Appendix Table 10. Hosanna station monthly maximum temperature(oc)

year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec
1987 28.12 29.51 29.59 29.96 24.48 19.08 17.81 19.22 21.49 26.4 27.7 26.95
1988 28.76 29.65 29.42 25.98 22.1 19.68 16.6 17.47 20.53 23.85 27.26 26.7
1989 29.16 28.32 29.37 24.84 25.83 18.33 17.41 19.01 20.16 24.83 27.03 26.1
1990 26.9 24.91 25.36 27.67 21.09 19.14 19.07 18.54 22.42 25.63 26.54 27
1991 27.61 27.73 31.13 25.64 26.44 20.06 16.56 18.34 19.82 23.6 26.53 27.04
1992 24.44 28.51 24.11 24.34 25.49 18.9 16.73 18.84 21.38 24.62 26.93 24.28
1993 25.68 23.16 27.71 26.69 24.83 19.99 17.57 18.75 21.25 26.17 27.12 26.6
1994 27.82 27.9 27.24 27.78 27.26 20.17 18.03 18.91 23.37 27.15 27.72 25.97
1995 25.47 26.55 28.34 29.7 26.44 19.91 17.62 16.93 21.37 25.44 26.71 27.15
1996 23.57 27.03 30.64 26.31 22.31 18.59 16.93 18.64 20.2 23.84 27.89 27.84
1997 30.1 29.66 28.41 27.3 24.39 17.84 16.04 18.12 22.93 26.95 26.74 28.23
1998 27.82 26.99 29.03 27.8 26.63 20.89 17.43 19.04 23.29 26.37 27.77 25.81
1999 27.94 30.79 26.67 28.33 20.33 17.96 15.75 17.88 19.65 24.97 25.36 26.7
2000 26.14 31.24 25.57 25.88 24.85 19.65 18.42 20.62 23.7 23.28 24.43 26.3
 91

2001 26.44 26.48 29.33 27.14 25.39 18.62 16.54 18.44 19.7 22.71 26.61 28.65
2002 28.58 29.24 29.71 28.24 23.96 20.54 17.49 19.48 21.09 23.64 26.44 28.55
2003 29.74 31.3 32.63 25.82 25.75 20.08 19.17 19.06 22.32 25.99 27.56 26.86
2004 27.92 29.51 27.25 29.27 25.27 20.35 18.12 20.54 25.14 28.06 27.87 28.2
2005 29.07 29.02 30.04 29.34 27.99 22.42 21.32 22.56 25.71 28.68 30.43 26.49
2006 29.45 31.37 32.05 28.12 30.96 21.03 19.84 20.07 24.4 29.61 28.88 28.27
2007 26.83 32.42 29.28 28.37 29.12 21.31 20.07 21.43 24.25 28.05 28.83 28.97
2008 28.01 31.12 30.64 25.83 24.76 20.69 19.3 20.57 22.93 28.18 27.2 28.55
2009 29.27 28.83 27.22 29.08 26.68 21.04 18.69 20.53 23.5 25.25 27.76 27.91
2010 28.06 30.92 29.94 28.37 26.31 18.36 19.76 20.32 21.83 26.55 28.13 28.36
2011 29.8 31 31.2 25.91 26.02 21.85 18.41 20.74 24.11 25.18 27.29 28.93
2012 26.34 31.09 28.34 29.41 26.61 22.73 19.61 21.89 23.99 24.34 28.11 23.26
2013 26.24 24.13 26.23 23.85 22.1 19.55 17.57 18.74 21.62 27.16 26.52 26.45
2014 27.8 30.16 29.56 30.82 23.55 20.05 17.8 18.25 22.13 26.44 26.75 28.02
2015 29.76 31.15 29.78 27.45 26.08 20.17 17.62 18.54 22.12 26.37 28.36 28.11
2016 28.59 31.59 28.23 25.85 23.79 18.55 17.02 18.26 21.23 25.33 25.47 25.82

Appendix Table 11. Monthly RF of Hosanna station from

1987 - 2016(mm)

Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total
1987 3.32 0.89 28.99 22.87 395.83 528.78 441.88 553.83 332.77 12.7 6.24 4.77 2332.87
1988 54.15 2.4 57.9 277.45 380.35 457.82 481.13 350.34 391.81 135.81 50.01 0.39 2639.56
1989 3.75 112.57 73.81 488.2 245.98 469.19 545 618.98 433.39 52.83 20.83 8.09 3072.63
1990 9.99 216.42 203.07 130.96 483.31 367.09 263.16 387.15 369.66 162.81 23.74 1.98 2619.34
1991 27.6 70.5 48.04 305.33 189.13 459.73 514.64 425.35 542.35 122.28 1.88 5.92 2712.74
1992 131.62 19.09 315.87 258.03 311.52 337.24 624.69 505.44 331.87 91.85 34.94 33.66 2995.82
1993 45.25 286.5 242.59 203.32 352.79 545.46 509 595.93 421.99 28.36 6.51 10.1 3247.81
1994 20.45 61.08 346.31 131.84 121.28 476.53 597.73 603.5 373.49 6.05 24.78 11.36 2774.39
 92

1995 132.29 68.27 163.54 74.68 197.43 517.96 558.21 502.23 431.75 155.87 29.38 22.41 2854.04
1996 194.31 56.68 33.38 308.19 361.18 439.75 513.15 457.33 641.88 304.65 0.5 0.83 3311.83
1997 1.71 30.13 105.74 259.15 417.43 515.24 562.61 399.73 232.83 46.83 7.11 18.82 2597.33
1998 23.04 81.08 128.53 255.61 257.35 449.51 284.66 534.53 318.82 93.31 23.07 64.05 2513.57
1999 35.14 30.39 222.33 141.19 578.78 470.23 653.08 438.79 551.8 34.81 75.29 28.46 3260.29
2000 66.76 1.5 352.44 218.67 301.7 496.95 585.22 565.93 368.7 338.79 141.07 25.38 3463.11
2001 147.1 182.11 85.57 339.46 268.37 471.26 576.79 439.68 453.67 292.01 11.67 3.79 3271.47
2002 56.43 90.22 87.02 233.52 416.35 476.35 726.88 412.45 543.94 292.36 2.92 7.01 3345.44
2003 0 1.04 50.6 487.03 275.13 473.44 555.8 665.58 545.85 260.71 18.92 24.66 3358.77
2004 30.63 66.36 235.71 158.53 388.05 654.15 538.95 546.25 256.36 75.09 44.68 47.61 3042.37
2005 39.47 164.68 81.32 128.14 190.71 475.93 428.89 406.94 146.6 42.79 18.03 88.05 2211.55
2006 10.18 25.05 45.94 331.38 114.72 464.65 397.12 449.23 262.86 14.75 73.22 0.72 2189.81
2007 102.67 1.98 184.09 326.08 151.19 482.88 455.43 448.99 329.35 99.43 21.69 16.03 2619.82
2008 54.5 48.82 56.2 483.31 280.06 409.57 380.69 497.96 428 34.62 22.39 0.22 2696.34
2009 4.58 27.89 240.83 174.82 246.04 542.23 459.56 390.63 377.25 85.16 12 4.09 2565.08
2010 64.25 19.91 113.62 149.53 382.78 608.7 337.97 426.54 403.05 18.43 0.43 0 2525.2
2011 15.8 0.5 47.63 214.65 249.89 328.16 493.18 421.6 282.85 257.7 3.01 0.29 2315.27
2012 137.4 17.59 242.74 62.51 224.17 248.38 464.29 390.58 282.33 132.75 3.44 157.32 2363.52
2013 63.54 323.89 265.94 508.93 427.65 423.19 431.08 601.26 356.01 41.22 14.19 42.19 3499.11
2014 5.93 54.57 58.1 41.41 356.32 509.54 613.67 782.42 252.01 30.55 19.7 0.01 2724.23
2015 3.71 1.76 172.01 100.06 121.09 440.83 623.91 672.53 253.89 16.95 1.14 8.46 2416.35
2016 11.63 3.6 80.8 303.06 153.31 458.17 603.26 510.97 375.71 73.53 62.16 8.66 2644.85
 93

Appendix Table 12. Hosanna station

monthly minimum temperature(oc)

year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
1987 7.89 7.41 10.12 10.48 11.24 10.62 10.88 11.03 9.71 7.74 9.46 7.64
1988 8.45 11.02 11.07 12.08 10.99 11.39 10.75 10.13 10 8.38 8.13 7.93
1989 7.57 11.63 10.86 12.1 11.17 11.27 10.37 10.56 10.03 7.95 8.9 9.57
1990 10.03 12.8 11.83 11.75 12.12 12.2 11.31 11.58 10.73 9 10 8.97
1991 10.83 12.12 11.51 12.07 10.93 10.99 11.96 11.52 11.07 8.62 7.05 8.51
1992 9.89 9.98 11.72 11.31 10.4 10.82 11.45 11.26 10.05 8.89 9.7 10.88
1993 10.61 12.31 12.78 11.71 12.16 11.77 11.12 11.26 10.1 8.57 9.12 8.46
1994 10.46 12.48 12.38 11.23 10.53 12.16 11.66 11.36 10.33 8.11 9.55 8.66
1995 11.92 12.41 12.08 12.19 11.2 11.64 11.39 11.02 10.26 8.83 8.56 9.68
1996 11.5 10.47 11.51 12.44 11.41 11.34 11.11 10.9 11.13 9.64 8.92 8.57
1997 9.29 12.48 12.33 12.19 10.94 11.63 11.59 10.43 9.33 8.07 8.84 8.45
1998 9.45 11.59 12.06 12.58 10.97 11.67 11.47 11.08 10.35 9.75 10.15 10.71
1999 11.63 11.43 12.87 11.59 12.39 11.88 11.88 11.05 11.67 8.75 8.86 11.63
2000 10.91 10.35 13.23 11.16 11.39 11.77 11.82 11.52 10.06 10.67 10.73 9.7
2001 12.36 13.41 13.48 13.27 12.98 12.61 11.5 12.17 11.21 10.24 7.39 8.76
2002 9.44 11.24 11.89 11.44 10.73 10.79 11.6 11.11 10.94 9.79 7.98 8.36
2003 8.64 9.67 10.69 12.39 10.65 11.33 11.34 11.55 10.99 10.12 9.14 11.68
2004 10.57 12.07 13 13.06 11.52 12.01 11.99 11.32 10.47 9.93 10.47 11
2005 10 12.42 13.58 12.74 11.56 11.54 11.54 11.14 10.75 9.71 10.47 12.31
2006 10.71 12.36 12.66 13.56 10.91 11.88 11.83 11.18 11.34 9.74 10.5 8.4
2007 12.84 10.87 13.05 13.42 10.95 11.49 11.82 11.14 11.55 9.67 9.86 9.88
2008 11.16 12.24 12.39 13.89 11.74 12.21 11.47 12.53 11.77 8.94 8.34 7.76
2009 10.59 13.17 13.06 12.48 10.66 12.28 12.02 12.1 10.57 9.76 10.62 9.86
2010 11.9 12.21 12.24 12.24 12.86 12.5 12.19 11.63 11.6 8.64 8.4 7.37
 94

2011 10.48 9.75 10.68 11.2 11.05 11.47 11.96 11.14 10.49 10.77 8.6 8.86
2012 11.16 11.88 13.05 12.03 11.42 10.94 11.9 11.59 10.83 9.22 9.87 11.98
2013 11.75 13.52 12.47 13.85 13.1 12.31 11.6 11.7 10.81 9.13 9.69 10.09
2014 10.12 10.7 11.88 11.78 11.89 11.2 10.44 10.77 10.81 9.36 9.94 8.89
2015 9.48 10.42 11.73 11.44 10.78 11.53 11.7 10.61 10.55 9.45 9.61 9.7
2016 11.05 11.11 12.04 12.43 11.74 11.68 10.52 10.68 10.85 9.52 9.24 9.83
Appendix Table 13. Hosanna station Estimated ETo (mm/month) - Hargreaves method.
Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Annual
1987 155.1 158.0 179.7 178.0 139.4 96.8 89.6 101.8 119.8 156.0 146.3 144.8 1218.2
1988 158.0 152.5 176.3 145.7 123.0 97.8 80.6 92.5 112.1 138.2 146.1 142.8 1138.5
1989 161.9 143.0 176.4 137.3 149.3 88.3 89.1 102.3 109.4 145.5 143.3 136.0 1157.0
1990 143.5 118.2 144.8 158.8 110.7 89.9 97.3 93.7 122.8 148.3 138.1 142.6 1079.6
1991 146.1 138.1 187.4 143.2 154.4 102.3 72.8 92.3 102.7 136.0 143.7 143.7 1139.4
1992 128.5 147.8 136.0 136.4 149.2 94.6 77.6 97.7 117.9 142.0 141.1 121.6 1085.6
1993 134.4 108.5 159.0 151.9 138.8 98.4 86.5 97.0 116.8 152.8 143.5 141.2 1091.2
1994 148.3 138.2 156.8 161.0 161.2 98.0 87.3 97.8 130.7 160.1 146.2 137.1 1179.3
1995 129.4 129.9 165.8 172.0 153.6 98.4 85.4 83.5 117.1 147.5 142.1 142.1 1135.0
1996 118.2 137.8 183.9 146.9 122.9 89.9 81.3 97.9 105.3 134.8 148.4 148.4 1084.2
1997 164.8 149.3 165.5 154.8 139.7 82.6 70.6 96.1 130.7 158.9 141.7 150.9 1154.2
1998 150.4 134.9 170.8 157.2 155.6 105.5 83.4 100.2 130.1 151.4 145.3 131.5 1188.1
1999 146.2 158.6 150.9 163.9 103.4 82.2 65.9 91.1 98.7 144.6 133.5 134.7 1061.1
2000 136.6 163.5 141.3 147.8 141.6 95.9 89.6 110.4 133.8 127.9 123.3 136.9 1160.4
2001 134.5 126.4 168.8 150.2 140.0 83.5 75.7 89.6 101.2 125.4 143.6 152.8 1069.8
2002 155.1 149.6 176.2 163.7 137.3 106.5 83.1 103.4 112.5 133.1 141.6 152.9 1187.5
2003 163.7 165.0 199.9 143.5 150.3 101.0 98.0 98.0 121.2 148.0 146.0 135.6 1240.5
2004 148.6 149.3 154.8 166.4 144.2 100.0 86.2 110.7 142.5 162.3 145.2 145.6 1202.7
2005 157.0 145.4 173.8 167.9 163.6 116.9 113.4 126.5 145.6 166.9 160.9 131.5 1310.2
2006 158.0 160.3 191.2 156.4 186.3 105.6 100.8 107.7 134.7 173.0 151.3 151.2 1301.0
 95

2007 135.6 169.7 169.8 158.7 173.2 109.2 102.7 118.1 132.9 162.8 152.3 152.7 1270.0
2008 147.8 159.0 181.6 138.1 139.7 101.7 98.4 105.2 122.7 165.2 145.4 153.9 1194.1
2009 157.1 142.3 154.4 166.8 156.8 104.0 90.7 107.0 130.9 143.9 144.2 146.3 1209.8
2010 146.3 157.8 177.0 162.4 147.3 82.0 98.4 107.6 115.3 155.2 150.8 153.4 1194.0
2011 160.6 163.1 189.8 147.9 151.0 113.2 88.7 112.9 135.3 140.7 145.5 154.3 1262.6
2012 137.2 159.6 162.8 170.4 154.1 121.2 98.7 119.8 133.4 139.3 147.9 111.7 1257.1
2013 134.9 110.5 149.0 123.0 114.1 92.5 83.8 94.7 116.8 158.1 138.7 136.9 1019.3
2014 148.9 156.3 175.2 181.0 130.3 101.4 91.7 95.5 120.5 152.8 139.5 148.8 1200.6
2015 162.3 162.8 177.2 158.1 152.2 100.8 83.7 98.5 121.3 152.2 149.9 147.8 1216.9
2016 151.8 164.2 165.1 143.6 132.6 87.9 85.3 96.0 113.9 145.1 133.3 133.7 1140.3
Average 147.4 147.3 168.7 155.1 143.9 98.3 87.9 101.5 121.6 148.9 144.0 142.1 1171.6
Appendix Table 14. Probability distribution of dry and wet spells in Kiremt during the growth stage of wheat at Hosanna station.
SMD FD FW FDD FDW FWD FWW
19 75 225 40 36 33 201
20 77 223 35 47 49 179
21 80 250 42 44 44 211
22 88 212 44 44 45 177
23 79 221 34 45 43 188
24 76 254 42 34 38 227
25 50 250 26 25 22 237
26 68 232 41 33 31 205
27 131 169 105 36 29 140
28 177 123 167 20 20 103
29 230 70 215 25 16 54
30 288 42 282 17 13 29
31 282 18 281 11 11 7
32 289 11 293 6 6 5
33 297 3 305 2 1 2
 96

Appendix Table 15. Probability distribution of dry and wet spells in Kiremt during the growth
stage of wheat at Fonko station

SMD FD FW FDD FDW FWD FWW

19 75 225 40 35 32 193
20 77 223 33 44 46 177
21 80 250 38 42 42 208
22 88 212 44 44 45 167
23 79 221 34 45 43 178
24 76 254 42 34 38 216
25 50 250 26 24 22 228
26 68 232 37 31 29 203
27 131 169 95 36 29 140
28 177 123 157 20 20 103
29 230 70 205 25 16 54
30 288 42 271 17 13 29
31 282 18 271 11 11 7
32 289 11 283 6 6 5
33 297 3 295 2 1 2
Appendix Table 16. Frequency of occurrence of drought events during Belg and kiremt season based on 1-month time-
scales at Hosanna station

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1987 -0.34 -0.62 -1.73 -2.81 0.90 0.78 -0.53 0.60 -0.29 -1.28 -0.17 0.34
1988 0.33 -0.62 -0.93 0.49 0.79 -0.04 -0.16 -1.66 0.24 0.56 1.02 0.34
1989 -0.34 0.81 -0.67 1.43 -0.27 0.09 0.40 1.19 0.59 -0.31 0.12 0.34
1990 -0.34 1.55 0.76 -0.58 1.44 -1.25 -2.62 -1.19 0.05 0.75 0.25 0.34
1991 -0.13 0.36 -1.13 0.64 -0.87 -0.02 0.14 -0.74 1.39 0.44 -0.17 0.34
1992 1.43 -0.47 1.47 0.38 0.29 -1.70 1.04 0.12 -0.30 0.15 0.64 0.77
 97

1993 0.19 1.92 1.04 0.03 0.60 0.97 0.09 0.99 0.49 -0.76 -0.17 0.34
1994 -0.27 0.26 1.63 -0.57 -1.82 0.18 0.83 1.05 0.08 -1.28 0.30 0.34
1995 1.43 0.34 0.44 -1.34 -0.77 0.66 0.51 0.09 0.57 0.71 0.46 0.52
1996 2.08 0.21 -1.55 0.65 0.66 -0.27 0.13 -0.38 2.03 1.52 -0.17 0.34
1997 -0.34 -0.18 -0.17 0.38 1.04 0.63 0.55 -1.04 -1.39 -0.40 -0.17 0.42
1998 -0.22 0.48 0.10 0.36 -0.17 -0.15 -2.31 0.41 -0.43 0.17 0.23 1.29
1999 0.01 -0.18 0.90 -0.47 1.96 0.11 1.25 -0.58 1.45 -0.61 1.50 0.66
2000 0.51 -0.62 1.66 0.13 0.21 0.42 0.73 0.71 0.04 1.66 2.64 0.59
2001 1.60 1.34 -0.47 0.81 -0.07 0.12 0.66 -0.57 0.74 1.46 -0.17 0.34
2002 0.36 0.58 -0.44 0.23 1.03 0.18 1.78 -0.89 1.40 1.46 -0.17 0.34
2003 -0.34 -0.62 -1.07 1.42 -0.01 0.14 0.49 1.59 1.41 1.31 0.02 0.57
2004 -0.07 0.32 0.99 -0.32 0.85 2.07 0.35 0.53 -1.10 -0.05 0.89 1.03
2005 0.09 1.22 -0.54 -0.61 -0.85 0.17 -0.65 -0.95 -2.71 -0.46 -0.04 1.66
2006 -0.34 -0.29 -1.18 0.77 -1.94 0.04 -0.98 -0.47 -1.03 -1.28 1.46 0.34
2007 1.05 -0.62 0.61 0.74 -1.36 0.26 -0.40 -0.47 -0.33 0.23 0.16 0.34
2008 0.33 0.11 -0.96 1.41 0.03 -0.66 -1.15 0.05 0.54 -0.61 0.20 0.34
2009 -0.34 -0.23 1.02 -0.18 -0.27 0.93 -0.36 -1.15 0.12 0.07 -0.17 0.34
2010 0.48 -0.44 -0.07 -0.40 0.81 1.63 -1.64 -0.72 0.34 -1.13 -0.17 0.34
2011 -0.34 -0.62 -1.14 0.11 -0.24 -1.84 -0.05 -0.78 -0.80 1.30 -0.17 0.34
2012 1.49 -0.54 1.04 -1.52 -0.49 -3.23 -0.31 -1.15 -0.81 0.53 -0.17 2.58
2013 0.47 2.09 1.18 1.51 1.10 -0.48 -0.63 1.03 -0.07 -0.49 -0.17 0.93
2014 -0.34 0.19 -0.92 -1.97 0.63 0.57 0.95 2.51 -1.16 -0.70 0.06 0.34
2015 -0.34 -0.62 0.51 -0.94 -1.83 -0.26 1.03 1.65 -1.13 -1.24 -0.17 0.34
2016 -0.34 -0.62 -0.55 0.63 -1.33 -0.04 0.87 0.18 0.10 -0.07 1.26 0.34
 98

Appendix Table 17. Frequency of occurrence of drought events during Belg and kiremt season based on 3-,6-month
time-scales at Hosanna station

3-month time scale 6-month time scale

Year 1 2 3 4 Year 1 2
1987 -1.83 -2.20 -0.13 -0.21 1987 -2.92 -0.25
1988 0.54 -0.93 0.64 -0.73 1988 -0.38 -0.09
1989 -0.50 -0.24 1.04 1.01 1989 -0.61 1.29
1990 0.59 1.07 -0.02 -1.85 1990 0.98 -1.23
1991 0.24 -0.76 -0.16 0.51 1991 -0.55 0.21
1992 0.21 1.19 -0.42 0.41 1992 0.91 0.00
1993 -1.08 1.56 0.58 0.70 1993 0.99 0.79
1994 -1.21 1.04 -1.47 0.91 1994 0.47 -0.20
1995 0.60 0.69 -1.09 0.55 1995 0.68 -0.27
1996 1.33 0.33 0.61 1.07 1996 0.93 1.06
1997 -0.62 -0.61 0.99 -0.88 1997 -0.99 0.06
1998 0.34 -0.02 -0.12 -1.18 1998 0.00 -0.88
1999 0.00 0.38 0.99 1.20 1999 0.13 1.38
2000 1.90 1.08 0.16 0.67 2000 1.81 0.52
2001 1.27 0.91 0.47 0.45 2001 1.26 0.56
2002 1.27 -0.08 0.69 1.36 2002 0.66 1.31
2003 1.16 -1.57 1.19 1.70 2003 0.04 1.84
2004 0.22 0.59 1.03 -0.15 2004 0.40 0.54
2005 0.12 0.30 -1.06 -2.07 2005 0.11 -2.07
2006 -0.30 -1.50 -0.40 -1.34 2006 -1.41 -1.17
2007 0.06 0.44 -0.13 -0.68 2007 0.20 -0.57
2008 -0.78 -0.64 0.91 -0.31 2008 -1.08 0.35
2009 -0.14 0.40 -0.12 -0.71 2009 0.08 -0.58
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2010 -1.58 -0.27 0.76 -1.02 2010 -0.87 -0.19

2011 1.11 -1.63 -1.08 -0.86 2011 -0.03 -1.27
2012 1.11 0.90 -2.87 -1.19 2012 1.14 -2.48
2013 -0.37 1.80 1.71 0.08 2013 1.31 1.14
2014 -0.93 -0.92 -0.37 1.22 2014 -1.39 0.60
2015 -1.77 -0.10 -1.93 0.80 2015 -0.72 -0.50
2016 0.11 -1.07 -0.37 0.54 2016 -0.84 0.11

Appendix Table 18. Frequency of occurrence of drought events during Belg and kiremt season based on 1-
month time-scales at Fonko station

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1987 0.25 0.08 -0.97 -1.28 1.05 0.93 -1.23 -0.04 -0.40 -0.43 0.97 0.97
1988 0.29 0.08 -0.97 0.06 1.18 -0.62 -0.59 -1.74 0.13 0.51 1.27 0.97
1989 0.25 0.63 -0.58 1.36 -0.60 0.81 0.42 0.75 0.57 -0.23 0.97 0.97
1990 0.25 1.33 0.51 -0.99 1.34 -0.60 -1.70 -1.33 -0.41 0.91 0.97 0.97
1991 0.25 0.57 -0.32 0.09 -1.34 -0.73 0.56 -0.66 1.17 0.58 0.97 0.97
1992 0.95 0.08 0.85 0.29 -0.01 -1.06 0.76 0.21 0.01 0.33 0.97 0.97
1993 0.25 1.36 0.71 0.72 0.46 0.92 -0.05 0.72 0.40 -0.43 0.97 0.97
1994 0.25 0.23 1.38 -1.07 -1.77 -0.08 0.52 0.53 -0.34 -0.43 0.97 0.97
1995 1.50 0.12 0.15 -1.28 -1.03 -0.20 0.75 0.84 -0.07 0.21 0.97 0.97
1996 2.07 0.24 -0.97 0.21 0.79 0.43 0.03 -0.47 1.72 1.55 0.97 0.97
1997 0.25 0.08 -0.18 -0.08 0.88 -0.41 0.76 -0.94 -0.75 -0.33 0.97 0.97
1998 0.25 0.08 -0.36 -0.10 0.06 -0.57 -1.53 0.27 -0.87 0.13 0.97 1.17
1999 0.25 0.08 0.31 -1.08 1.34 0.33 0.99 -0.19 1.47 -0.43 1.14 0.97
2000 0.50 0.08 1.51 0.31 0.23 0.18 0.60 0.83 -0.38 1.89 1.42 0.97
2001 1.58 0.85 -0.61 1.11 0.20 0.23 0.43 -0.75 0.96 1.50 0.97 0.97
2002 0.39 0.57 -0.31 -0.54 0.63 -0.32 0.87 -1.07 1.30 1.55 0.97 0.97
2003 0.25 0.08 -0.36 1.47 -0.09 -0.80 -0.50 0.77 0.78 0.57 0.97 0.97
2004 0.25 0.65 0.55 -0.03 0.42 0.84 -0.17 0.50 -2.26 -0.43 0.97 1.09
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2005 0.25 1.22 -0.85 -0.81 -1.00 0.09 -0.75 -1.18 -2.33 -0.43 0.97 1.16
2006 0.25 0.08 -0.97 0.51 -2.44 -0.30 -0.95 -0.16 -1.24 -0.43 1.08 0.97
2007 1.21 0.08 0.36 0.56 -1.22 0.26 -0.57 -0.09 -0.85 0.21 0.97 0.97
2008 0.41 0.43 -0.97 1.64 0.03 -1.51 -0.92 -0.45 -0.10 -0.43 0.97 0.97
2009 0.25 0.08 0.72 -0.28 -0.65 0.59 -0.30 -0.40 -0.05 0.09 0.97 0.97
2010 0.60 0.08 -0.35 -0.24 0.50 1.45 -1.76 -0.59 0.61 -0.43 0.97 0.97
2011 0.25 0.08 -0.93 -0.85 -0.37 -1.53 -0.93 -1.03 -0.99 1.18 0.97 0.97
2012 1.10 0.08 1.06 -1.28 -0.94 -2.68 -0.06 -1.09 -0.67 0.73 0.97 2.48
2013 1.08 2.57 1.22 1.64 1.46 -0.16 -0.45 1.00 0.08 -0.37 0.97 1.42
2014 0.25 0.92 0.14 -0.84 1.64 0.51 1.85 2.72 0.35 -0.34 0.97 0.97
2015 0.25 0.08 1.87 0.28 -0.68 1.68 1.71 2.19 0.49 -0.43 0.97 0.97
2016 0.25 0.08 1.31 1.76 0.10 2.32 2.15 0.80 1.72 0.41 2.55 0.97
Appendix Table 19. Frequency of occurrence of drought events during Belg and kiremt season based on 3-
,6-month time-scales at Fonko station

3-month time scale 6- month time scale

Year 1 2 3 4 Year 1 2
1987 -0.84 -1.50 0.25 -0.82 1987 -1.83 -0.40
1988 0.61 -1.41 0.37 -0.91 1988 -0.56 -0.38
1989 -0.44 -0.47 0.91 0.66 1989 -1.00 0.89
1990 0.86 0.83 0.03 -1.56 1990 0.93 -0.96
1991 0.52 -0.36 -0.94 0.53 1991 -0.24 -0.14
1992 0.25 0.63 -0.39 0.41 1992 0.42 0.03
1993 -0.84 0.99 0.86 0.35 1993 0.57 0.67
1994 -0.84 1.05 -1.50 0.28 1994 0.64 -0.56
1995 0.12 0.19 -1.54 0.62 1995 -0.06 -0.31
1996 1.49 -0.05 0.54 0.63 1996 0.78 0.66
1997 -0.61 -0.54 0.14 -0.25 1997 -1.14 -0.13
1998 0.06 -0.74 -0.45 -0.97 1998 -0.90 -0.93
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1999 -0.30 -0.02 0.33 1.05 1999 -0.48 0.83

2000 1.91 1.18 0.19 0.43 2000 1.89 0.34
2001 1.43 0.19 0.79 0.33 2001 0.86 0.62
2002 1.48 -0.31 -0.24 0.66 2002 0.66 0.27
2003 0.51 -0.74 0.66 0.35 2003 -0.46 0.56
2004 -0.74 0.41 0.35 -0.61 2004 -0.09 -0.21
2005 -0.67 0.14 -1.05 -1.73 2005 -0.39 -1.75
2006 -0.36 -1.50 -0.56 -1.07 2006 -1.64 -1.05
2007 0.12 0.26 -0.11 -0.72 2007 0.00 -0.57
2008 -0.84 -0.83 0.70 -0.73 2008 -1.48 -0.06
2009 -0.02 0.38 -0.38 -0.41 2009 0.06 -0.52
2010 -0.84 -0.56 0.57 -0.72 2010 -1.21 -0.14
2011 1.12 -1.46 -1.55 -1.35 2011 0.01 -1.78
2012 1.08 0.85 -2.85 -0.78 2012 1.08 -1.87
2013 -0.38 2.23 1.76 0.17 2013 2.00 1.14
2014 -0.63 0.27 0.72 2.13 2014 -0.23 1.78
2015 -0.84 1.50 0.47 1.88 2015 1.15 1.48
2016 0.86 0.96 2.00 2.11 2016 1.04 2.45
Appendix Table20. Initial and conditional probability
of both station

Hossana station Fonko station

SMD PD PW PDD PDW PWD PWW PD PW PDD PDW PWD PWW
D7 84 16 97 39 3 61 84 16 93 39 7 61
D8 84 16 97 31 3 69 84 16 94 33 6 67
D9 86 14 96 32 4 68 86 14 92 32 8 68
D10 67 33 92 29 8 71 67 33 87 29 13 71
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D11 61 39 94 24 6 76 61 39 88 24 12 76
D12 53 47 86 18 14 82 53 47 80 19 20 81
D13 61 39 90 22 10 78 61 39 87 25 13 75
D14 60 40 82 17 18 83 60 40 82 26 18 74
D15 59 41 75 13 25 87 59 41 88 18 12 82
D16 37 63 76 16 24 84 37 63 75 21 25 79
D17 23 77 55 10 45 90 23 77 55 14 45 86
D18 22 78 53 8 47 92 22 78 53 12 47 88
D19 25 75 53 11 47 89 25 75 53 14 47 86
D20 26 74 45 20 55 80 26 74 43 21 57 79
D21 24 76 53 16 48 84 24 76 48 17 53 83
D22 29 71 50 17 50 83 29 71 50 21 50 79
D23 26 74 43 15 57 85 26 74 43 19 57 81
D24 23 85 55 11 45 89 23 74 55 15 45 85
D25 17 83 52 5 48 95 17 85 52 9 48 91
D26 23 77 60 12 40 88 23 83 54 13 46 88
D27 44 56 80 17 20 83 44 77 73 17 27 83