WHAT IS TECHNOLOGY?

Technology is not a neutral word. Different people will give it different meaning depending on
their viewpoint and context.

1. Technology concerns itself with understanding how knowledge is creatively applied to

organised tasks involving people and machines that meet sustainable goals.”

2. Technology is the set of knowledge, skills, experience and techniques through which
humans change, transform and use our environment in order to create tools, machines,
products and services that meet our needs and desires. Etymologically the word comes
from the Greek tekne (technical, art, skill) and logos (knowledge)

There are three important aspects to this definition:

1. Technology is about taking action to meet a human need rather than merely understanding
the workings of the natural world, which is the goal of science. The invention of the microscope
was driven by a need to explore the world of the small, beyond our unaided vision. This
technological solution to a long standing problem has in turn enabled us to understand more the
workings of the world which in turn has led to the development of more technologies.
2. It uses much more than scientific knowledge and includes values as much as facts, practical
craft knowledge as much as theoretical knowledge. The iPod is an example of where the physics
of making a small device carry so much music is married with creative design to make an iconic
must have accessory.
3. It involves organised ways of doing things. It covers the intended and unintended
interactions between products (machines, devices, artifacts) and the people and systems who
make them, use them or are affected by them through various processes.
Every choice we make relies on, and feeds, a highly interdependent and far reaching way of life
where some have much and some have little.

Technology is a hands-on, can-do profession where people have to be skilled in many of the
following: engineering, communicating, designing, developing, innovating, managing,
manufacturing, modelling, and systems thinking.

But technology also gives us various products which can be used for good or ill or where the
benefits are disputed and similarly the processes involved in producing and using technology
means that we should all take an interest in whether it provides us and everyone else with a
sustainable future.

A. TECHNOLOGY FOR DEVELOPMENT

Human progress is usually a pretty gradual process. But at certain points in history, our
development has spiked, resulting in populations living more comfortable, healthier, longer lives.
By and large, these big leaps in progress are caused by a new technology or innovation, like how
the wheel got things rolling.

Industrial Revolution.

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For thousands of years, life stayed the same. Everyone lived on or near the land that provided their
food and water. Their clothes and tools were made within their community, and the average life
expectancy was thirty-five. Basic machinery was usually fueled by limited power sources, like
water wheels, windmills, horsepower, or people power. But in the late 1700s, an industrial
revolution began in Great Britain. The invention of the spinning jenny and water frame ignited the
mechanization of the textile industry. The steam engine quickly followed, making it possible to
work, farm, and live without proximity to waterways. Textiles, clothing, and furniture could be
cheaply mass-produced, freeing up labor and resources, which could be used to develop new
transportation methods like steam boats and railroads. As these new goods and technologies spread
around the world, populations increased and average income saw unprecedented growth, marking
the first time in history where a standard-of-living improvement was widespread.

Green Revolution
Another exemplary push forward in another time, place, and industry, was the green revolution.
With rising populations came new challenges. In the mid-1900s, India was experiencing a massive
food crisis. The country had recently gained independence and was facing political chaos and
famine. Indian officials went on a desperate search for new crops and agricultural technology.
They imported and lab-tested lab-made grain varieties, and combined with newly implemented
cultivation technologies, like fertilizer and irrigation, one newcomer took hold. It started producing
ten times the yield of traditional rice. They dubbed it miracle rice. These innovations would go on
to make India a world leader in rice production and save hundreds of millions of lives from
starvation.

The world we live in today is built upon the rapid progress from periods of manufacturing and
agricultural advancements like these. They’ve given the world electricity, blueberries in
wintertime, planes, along with some unintended consequences: pollution, chemical contamination,
and overcrowding.

Digital Revolution
Today, we know innovation has the power to drive development, and in a modern world, there’s
more potential than ever for emerging technology to make its mark. Many experts believe we are
currently in the midst of a digital revolution.

In sub-Saharan Africa specifically, innovations in technology have the potential to improve lives
in a region lacking the traditional information and communication infrastructure found elsewhere.
When mobile phones arrived in sub-Saharan Africa in the early 2000s, for example, hundreds of
millions of people were able to connect for the first time. But it’s not just about texting and
checking Facebook. Mobile banking has reduced the need for centralized banking and given
people access to bank accounts for the first time. In Mali, telemedicine is helping to make up for
a lack of trained health-care professionals in rural areas. In Rwanda, people in need can request
blood; it is then delivered by drone. And throughout the region, business owners and farmers are
using their phones to buy solar energy or trade crops.

Better Health, wealth and Education

Already, digital innovations are making many Africans wealthier, healthier, and better educated.
At the same time, population increases will create new strains and pressures that technology will

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have difficulty addressing. The costs and rewards are likely to be felt unevenly, and negative
effects that no one planned for could arise alongside. And today, as we see the rise of emerging
technology, like robotics and artificial intelligence, it is critical to remember that such
repercussions have been true throughout history and will continue to be so of all future
technological revolutions to come.

The emerging uses of technology can generate four forms of intelligence (4Is) that have the
potential to improve development decisions and accelerate progress towards the Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs). These are:

1. Data intelligence, use cases reliant on datafication and analytics. It involves the use of
technologies such as open data, data collaboratives, and the internet of things;

2. Artificial intelligence, use cases reliant on advances in computing power. It involves the
use of technologies such as machine learning and expert model systems;

3. Collective intelligence, use cases reliant on group interaction and improvements in

communications. It involves the use of technologies such as co-creation and crowdsourcing
systems, smarter crowdsourcing tools, digital citizen assemblies, and open innovation
platforms; and

4. Embodied intelligence, use cases reliant on the use of artificial intelligence in the physical
world. It includes technologies such as robotics, unmanned aerial vehicles, and 3-D
printers.

These forms of intelligence can help improve the decision-making capacity of development
practitioners by enabling them to better understand or communicate relevant insights. When
implemented effectively and appropriately, new forms of intelligence can be used to fill
information gaps; clarify the causes of successes or failure, or improve accountability, partici-
pation and transparency. They can also help individuals and communities increase their skills;
provide new and more efficient services; and build interpersonal networks to empower the
marginalized.

This following outlines considerations and contextual factors that can play a role in the
success or failure of such efforts.

1. It is critical to consider the risks associated with emerging uses of technology. The
intelligence paradigm poses several risks. These include: advancing technological
determinism, exacerbating inequality, undermining transparency, and enabling political
manipulation. There are some ethical issues that are closely connected to emerging
technology, such as trust, knowledge, privacy, and individual autonomy. Furthermore these
issues take on a heightened concern when the technologies in question are financed in a
for-profit context.
2. To achieve community benefits through these new forms of intelligence, development
practitioners must weigh potential benefits against risks in ways that involve all

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 interested parties. Should benefits outweigh the risks, these parties must then work
together toward developing local capacities, promoting beneficiary ownership, and
enabling responsible, de-risked implementation.
3. The decision-making framework introduced in this paper can be used to assess
whether to invest in emerging technologies and if such technologies can effectively
support development objectives. This framework calls for carefully defining the
development objectives, taking into account the prevailing environment before focusing
on the solution, assessing the maturity of the technology, the challenges, cost implications
and risks of the technology’s use as well as the presence of various enablers or disablers
that could determine its impact and appropriateness.

B. TECHNOLOGY NEEDS ASSESSMENT STRATEGIES

Your business is growing and changing. Every day brings new challenges and new opportunities,
and although growth is exciting, it comes with challenges. Technology is a vital tool to making
sure that you are reaching, communicating with and serving your customer base. It is also a critical
piece to ensuring everything runs smoothly internally. Having a plan of action as to how to manage
and grow your technology is just as important as any other part of your business plan.

A Technology Needs Assessment is a systematic review of your company’s technology

requirements, taking into account what is needed today, and the expected needs based on your plan
of growth. Whether you are a large company or a small shop, the need is the same.

Why is a Technology Needs Assessment Important?

1. It gives you a snapshot of your current technology landscape.
2. It highlights gaps in your current structure, including aging and inefficient technology.
3. It identifies areas where your technology is actually impeding productivity.
4. It reveals inefficiencies and unnecessary duplication of hardware.
5. It allows you to structure a coherent plan for the purchase of new equipment.
6. It allows for technology budgets to be streamlined and accurate.
7. It prepares you for the retirement and obsolescence of current technology.

Before you make your next new technology purchase, you should seriously consider performing a
Technology Needs Assessment.

5 Steps to a Successful Technology Needs Assessment

1. Your first step is to go to the source – your employees who utilize the technology every
day. Survey management and staff regarding any frustrations they have with the existing
technology as it pertains to productivity, customer service and morale.

Technology deficiencies may include slow, outdated hardware, or software which is not
intuitive and requires too much time to process an order. Document everything you learn
thoroughly.

2. Your next step is to review all of the existing technology at your company. You will want
to fully document each piece of hardware, making sure to note its age and condition.

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 Don’t forget to record software release version, patches, and which business processes the
hardware is used to support. This step will allow you to identify the deficiencies in your
technology. Some of these will have been obvious visually; however more importantly you
can begin to map the deficient technology with the concerns of your employees and
customers.

3. Next, review your current situation with key employees. You will want to determine which
technology needs to be retired, which needs to be replaced, and which business processes
would benefit from completely new hardware and software.

Remember, you are not only considering what will work for today, but what you will need
for the next phase of your development. Make sure you include personnel familiar with the
business plan and growth projections. For instance, your software may be exactly what
your company needs, you simply need to properly train your team on its functionality.
Perhaps the high-powered laptop on the receptionist’s desk may be better utilized in the
design department.

Review the assets which you do have, and see if they can be reallocated or enhanced to
improve efficiency and productivity.

4. When it is determined where your technology platform is deficient and what you need to
purchase, do your research.

Upgrading hardware and software to increase business productivity is generally a smart

move, but there may be an argument as to why your company does not need the latest and
greatest, or the most expensive. Online forums and independent review sites can be of great
help in this step as you tap the knowledge of those who have already purchased and used
the products you are considering.

If it all seems overwhelming, you may wish to bring in expert technical consulting help to
make sure that you are doing the best for your company.

5. Set a schedule to routinely conduct a Technology Needs Assessment in order to ensure that
your company is on track with its stated goals.

Overall, reviewing your technology allows you to streamline your business, increase
productivity, boost employee morale and improve your customer’s experience.

C. TECHNOLOGICAL NEEDS FORECASTING

Definition
Technology needs forecasting is the prediction with a stated level of confidences, of the
anticipated occurrence of a technological advancement within a given time frame with a specified
level of support based on data and / or knowledge of experts in the field.

Methodologies

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There are a large number of methodologies known and many more new methods can be made.
Some of forecasting methods are
1. Intuitive Methods
2. Trend Extrapolation
3. Normative Forecasting
4. Growth Curves
5. Cross-Impact Analysis Method

1. INTUITIVE METHODS
Intuitive Methods are based on intuitive power of individuals include methods of obtaining
forecasts from experts in their respective areas of specialization and then combining various
individual’s forecasts or forecast from group of forecasters to get better forecast.
Research & Development activities for most discoveries and innovations are deliberately
engineered and manipulated by sustained inputs of funds, manpower and strength to achieve a new
technology or upgrading in the existing technology to improve their performance and efficiency
to meet the requirement of market forces and to survive in the fast moving competitive market. It
is also possible to get an idea of likely future events by probing the minds and thought of the people
involved in these R & D activities.
It is reasonable to think and hope that a reasonably rough picture of the near future is already
formed in these experts in their respective fields.
Methodologies of Intuitive Methods are
a. Individual Forecasting,
b. Opinion Polls,
c. Panel,
d. Brainstorming,
e. Delphi Technique,

a. Individual Forecasting
It is forecasting done by individuals. In this method an expert in a specific field predicts the
probable new technological events and / or advancement in an existing technology that are
expected to occur in the near future in the area of his expertise. Because of individuals having
limited knowledge and can have individual biases this method is of limited applicability because
many of the current technological innovations are products of multidisciplinary interactions of
experts in different fields and a specialist in one field alone may not be able to forecast correctly
in some instances. In this method the probability of their being wrong is greater.

b. Opinion Polls
In this method more than two individual forecasters’ opinions are taken for a particular
technological events that is likely to happen in near future and forecasting is done combining
opinion of several individual forecasters. In opinion polls methodologies, the errors and bias of
individual predictions are likely to be minimized. It is conducted using a large number of sample
and care should be taken to involve respondents from various fields. The disadvantage in this
method is that any minority forecast, even if it is of significance, will be drowned by the opinion
of majority experts.

c. Panel

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Here experts from various fields sit together and discusses issues for longer time. A group of
experts from multidisciplinary fields interact across a table and derive a number of forecasts of
significance. Some countries Navy and Air Force have used this methodology for defense
forecasting. The advantage of being multidisciplinary leads to better forecasting even on complex
technological events. Some of disadvantages are sometimes extreme and seems to be impractical
views get eliminated due to the desire to arrive at a compromise, the forecast of the most vociferous
speaker and / or the person with the highest bureaucratic status get importance although their
forecast may not be very correct, in corporate environment and government sectors where
subordinates will not express views contrary to those of senior personnel and this method may not
give useful results.

d. Brainstorming
In this method, individuals under well-trained leader hold meetings in an environment that allows
uninhibited and imaginative speculations. It is conducted very informal and free from any
obstruction, only one objective clearly worded is chosen at each brain storming session, no
criticism or cross questioning is allowed during the brain storming session, absurd ideas appearing
at first sights are also considered, sessions are of small informational sessions and the higher and
second order ideas are not considered. It is considered better than panel approach.

e. Delphi Technique
This technique is a modification of the panel approach. Here a method of obtaining expert opinion
from large groups or people in a systematic way is done by asking well-designed questionnaire
from a group of experts not interacting directly. Anonymity of individual forecasters is maintained
and subordinates do not have to differ with senior executives face to face. The final result is a
statistical group response based on interactions combined with controlled feedback. Questionnaire
is to be emailed to a large number of participants from various professions to get a better forecast.
The questions should be carefully framed and should not contain any parallel events or compound
events. The questionnaire should be simple and easy and ambiguous and complicated questions
should be avoided as far as possible. Depending upon the object of forecasts, various rounds of
questionnaires are made and sent to participants based on reply received from previous rounds.

2. TREND EXTRAPOLATION
It is a method using extrapolation of graph of a known, available and in use technological events
for which data are available. The future value of a technical capability, or production from a
technological activity, is an extension of its past performance, at least into near-term futures that
is obtained by extrapolating using various techniques according to available data related to that
events. The forecasts are generally obtained using statistical time extrapolation technique using
data of a technology available and then extrapolating the trend in near future and then forecasting
is done. The basis of trend extrapolation methodologies is that ‘the past trend is the historical result
of a large number of interacting forces which will generally continue to act in the same way unless
there are obvious reasons to expect a change in the trend due to introduction of new efficient and
reliable inventions or process / methods.’

The forecasts give the approximate future conditions and not the exact numbers.
Methodologies of Trend Extrapolations are:
a. Linear Extrapolation

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b. Extrapolation Using Exponential Trend
c. Double Exponential Extrapolation
d. Regression and Curve Fitting Techniques
e. Substitution Technique

a. Linear Extrapolation
In this method, data of a technology or production is collected over the year and then the parameter
to be forecast is linearly plotted against time, and the resulting plot is extrapolated into reasonable
future time spans to get near accurate forecast. For example, the temperature sustaining capability
of plastics has increased linearly with time and this trend can be extrapolated to project the high
temperature capability of plastics in the near future.

b. Extrapolation using Exponential Trend

It is observed that many technological functional capabilities and technological parameters have
shown exponential growth over fairly long time periods. So in this method, the logarithm of a
particular technological capability, or production trend from a specific technology is plotted
against time; these semilog plots, which are frequently linear, are then extrapolated into the future
to make forecasts.

c. Double Exponential Extrapolation

There are technologies for which R&D efforts are concentrated in the early phase of their
development using pushing method by injecting a large number of manpower and money. In these
cases the technological development is multifold as more inputs are provided. In such cases
normally the double exponential extrapolation method is used for forecasting in which the
logarithm of a specific technological parameter is plotted with time and these plots, if they follow
a linear trend, can be extrapolated for forecasting future values of these parameters in near future.
For example, the output emerges from lasers in the area of laser technology show this type of
exponential growth.

d. Regression and Curve Fitting Techniques

This method is used where large volumes of past data of technological events are available. For
reliable results, in this technique, a large volume of past data is required. Straight line or first
degree polynomial is used to fit the data on past performance where growth is characterized by a
linear trend. Second degree polynomial or a parabola is used, where the trend is characterized by
one bend. Higher degree polynomials are used if the trend is of a complex nature.

e. Substitution Technique
The parameters of a technology or a process can often be forecast by extrapolating the rate of
substitution of that technology or process by some other recent innovative, efficient, reliable and
cost effective technology. Many technological advances can be considered as competitive
substitutions of one method of satisfying a need, by another newer method of satisfying the same
need in a more reliable, efficient and / or cost effective technology or processes. If the time periods
for the initial few percent of substitution are known, extrapolation of the substitution curve can be
used to predict the extent of substitution in the future.

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Some of examples are substitution of:
 Natural fibers by synthetic fibres;
 Open heart steel-making process by electric arc process;
 zinc oxide and lead oxide in paint pigments by titanium dioxide;
 Oil based paints by water-based paints;
 Natural rubber by synthetic rubber;
 Natural rubber by synthetic rubber;
 Soaps by detergents;
 Inorganic insecticides by organic insecticides;
 and natural tyre fibres by artificial fibres.

3. NORMATIVE FORECASTING
In this technique first future goal is decided and then one recedes from future goals to the present
and intermediate-term technological needs. There must be many existing technologies or
intermediate-term technologies available in near future which needs to be selected for achieving
the future goal. It is primarily need-based forecasting.

4. GROWTH CURVES
It is observed that similarities between biological growth and the growth of many technologies or
technological parameters have been noticed over the period. The growth of technologies using
biological growth curves has been used for forecasting.

5. CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS METHOD

Present and future events or acts interact with each other and influence the probability, timings,
and impact of one another. It is based on bringing out interactions between forecasts to have better
forecasting.

It is learnt that two events or acts can interact in three ways:

1. Mode interaction – one event or act may enhance or diminish the likelihood of another event or
act; advance or delay; necessitate or obviate; or enable or prevent it.
2. Force Interaction – the influence of one event or act on another can be strong or weak.
3. Interaction time lag – the interaction between one event or act and another may start as soon as
the first event or act occurs or the influence may be felt only after say ten years.

D. TECHNOLOGICAL NEEDS ROAD MAPPING

Technology planning is important for many reasons. Globally, companies are facing many
problems. Products are becoming more complicated and customized. Product time to market is
shrinking. Product life is shortening. A short-term focus is reducing investment funding. There is
increased competition. Cut-backs are occurring because of increased competition. These problems
require companies to be more focused and better understand both their industry and markets. Better
technology planning can help deal with this increasingly competitive environment. Nations and
industries are beginning to use technology needs road mapping as a technology planning tool to
better position themselves and their products.
Technology needs road mapping is an important tool for collaborative technology planning and
coordination for corporations as well as for entire industries. It is a specific technique for

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technology planning, which fits within a more general set of planning activities. As a result of
technology road mapping, a company or an industry can make better investment decisions because
it has better information to:
1. Identify critical product needs that will drive technology selection and development decisions.
2. Determine the technology alternatives that can satisfy critical product needs.
3. Select the appropriate technology alternatives.
4. Generate and implement a plan to develop and deploy appropriate technology alternatives.
Technology needs road mapping is driven by a need, not a solution. For example, if the need exists
for an energy efficient vehicle that gets better miles per gallon, then lightweight composite
materials is a possible solution. There may be other more appropriate solutions. Therefore, you
must start with the need, not a pre-defined solution. It is a fundamentally different approach to
start with a solution and look for needs. Technology needs road mapping provides a way to
identify, evaluate, and select technology alternatives that can be used to satisfy the need. However,
this roadmap is only a high-level strategy for developing these technologies. A more detailed plan
is then needed to specify the actual projects and activities. This is simply traditional project
management, not something unique to technology needs road mapping. Unfortunately, all of these
activities are sometimes combined under the label of technology needs road mapping, which
causes much confusion about what the unique characteristics and real benefits of technology needs
road mapping are.

Uses and Benefits of Technology Needs Road mapping

At both the individual corporate and industry levels, technology needs road mapping has several
potential uses and resulting benefits. Three major uses are:
• First, technology needs road mapping can help develop a consensus about a set of needs and the
technologies required to satisfy those needs.
• Second, it provides a mechanism to help experts forecast technology developments in targeted
areas.
• Third, it can provide a framework to help plan and coordinate technology developments both
within a company or an entire industry.

The main benefit of technology needs road mapping is that it provides information to help make
better technology investment decisions. It does this by:
• First, identifying critical technologies or technology gaps that must be filled to meet product
performance targets.
• Second, identifying ways to leverage R&D investments through coordinating research activities
either within a single company or among alliance members. An additional benefit is that as a
marketing tool, a technology roadmap can show that a company really understands customer needs
and has access to or is developing (either internally or through alliances) the technologies to meet
their needs. Industry roadmaps may identify technology requirements that a company can support.
Some companies do technology needs road mapping internally as one aspect of their technology
planning (corporate technology road mapping). However, at the industry level, technology needs
road mapping involves multiple companies, either as a consortium or an entire industry (industry
technology needs road mapping). By focusing on common needs, companies can more effectively
address critical research and collaboratively develop the common technologies.

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For example, the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association) Semiconductor Technology Roadmap
addressed the requirements for semiconductor manufacturing and the NEMI (National Electronics
Manufacturing Initiative) Technology Roadmap addressed the common needs for information
products to connect to information networks such as NII (National Information Infrastructure).
This level of technology roadmap allows industry to collaboratively develop the key underlying
technologies, rather than redundantly funding the same research and underfunding or missing other
important technologies. This can result in significant benefits because a certain technology may
be too expensive for a single company to support or take too long to develop, given the resources
that can be justified. However, combining the resources across companies may make developing
the technology possible and consequently the industry more competitive.

What is Technology Needs Road mapping?

Technology needs road mapping is a needs-driven technology planning process to help identify,
select, and develop technology alternatives to satisfy a set of product needs. It brings together a
team of experts to develop a framework for organizing and presenting the critical technology-
planning information to make the appropriate technology investment decisions and to leverage
those investments.

Given a set of needs, the technology needs road mapping process provides a way to develop,
organize, and present information about the critical system requirements and performance targets
that must be satisfied by certain time frames. It also identifies technologies that need to be
developed to meet those targets. Finally, it provides the information needed to make trade-offs
among different technology alternatives.

Road mapping can be done at either of two levels — industry or corporate. These levels require
different commitments in terms of time, cost, level of effort, and complexity. However, for both
levels the resulting roadmaps have the same structure — needs, critical system requirements and
targets, technology areas, technology drivers and targets, technology alternatives, recommended
alternatives or paths, and a roadmap report — although with different levels of detail. Technology
needs road mapping within a national laboratory is essentially corporate-level needs road mapping,
although a national laboratory may participate in an industry needs road mapping process.

What is a Technology Needs Roadmap?

Technology needs roadmap is the document that is generated by the technology needs road
mapping process. It identifies (for a set of product needs) the critical system requirements, the
product and process performance targets, and the technology alternatives and milestones for
meeting those targets. In effect, a technology needs roadmap identifies alternate technology
“roads” for meeting certain performance objectives. A single path may be selected and a plan
developed. If there is high uncertainty or risk, then multiple paths may be selected and pursued
concurrently. The roadmap identifies precise objectives and helps focus resources on the critical
technologies that are needed to meet those objectives. This focusing is important because it allows
increasingly limited R&D investments to be used more effectively

Types of Technology Needs Roadmaps

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There are different types of technology roadmaps. The product technology roadmap is driven by
product/process needs. Since the product technology roadmap is the focus of this report, it is
usually referred to simply as a technology roadmap.
Another type of technology roadmap, which is used by some corporations, is an emerging
technology roadmap. An emerging technology roadmap differs from a product technology
roadmap in two ways:
• First, the emerging technology roadmap lacks the broader product context provided by the
product technology roadmap.
• Second, the emerging technology roadmap focuses on (1) forecasting the development and
commercialization of a new or emerging technology, (2) the competitive position of a company
with respect to that technology, and (3) how the emerging technology and the company’s
competitive position will develop. The emerging technology roadmap focuses on a single
technology, describes the way it is expected to develop, and may include project plans to support
that development. The result of an emerging technology roadmap may be a decision to allocate
additional resources to develop the technology and improve your competitive position. The
implication is that as the technology develops, uses will be found for it. While this emerging
technology roadmap is valuable and has its uses (especially within the context of a product
technology roadmap), it is not the type of technology roadmap this report addresses.

Technology Needs Road mapping Process

There are three phases in the technology needs road mapping process. The first phase involves
preliminary activity without which the road mapping probably should not be done. The second
phase is the development of the technology roadmap. The third phase is the follow-up and use of
the technology needs roadmap.

Phase I. Preliminary activity

1. Satisfy essential conditions.
2. Provide leadership/sponsorship.
3. Define the scope and boundaries for the technology roadmap.

Phase II. Development of the Technology Roadmap

1. Identify the “product” that will be the focus of the roadmap.
2. Identify the critical system requirements and their targets.
3. Specify the major technology areas.
4. Specify the technology drivers and their targets.
5. Identify technology alternatives and their time lines.
6. Recommend the technology alternatives that should be pursued.
7. Create the technology roadmap report.

Phase III. Follow-up activity

1. Critique and validate the roadmap. 2. Develop an implementation plan. 3. Review and update.

Phase I: Preliminary Activity

In this phase, the key decision makers must realize/perceive that they have a problem that a
technology roadmap can help them solve. They must decide what will be roadmapped and how
the technology roadmap will help them make their investment decisions. The acceptance and buy-

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in of these decision makers is critical to get the resources needed to create the roadmap and the
willingness to use it. This process is iterative because as the scope of the roadmap evolves, their
buy-in must be maintained. A complication is that different people expect different results and all
of them must be at least partly satisfied. The steps in this phase provide some assurance that this
essential buy-in will be obtained. However, this buy-in must be maintained throughout the later
two phases.

1. Satisfy essential conditions.

For a technology needs road mapping effort to succeed, a number of conditions must be satisfied.
This step involves checking to ensure that those conditions are already met or that someone is
taking the necessary actions to meet them. These required conditions are similar, but not identical,
for corporate- and industry-level technology road mapping:
• There must be a perceived need for a technology roadmap and collaborative development,
although a much broader group must perceive this need for an industry roadmap.
• The technology road mapping effort needs input and participation from several different groups,
which bring different perspectives and planning horizons to the process.
• The corporate technology road mapping process needs participation from various parts of the
organization (e.g., marketing, manufacturing, R&D, planning, etc.) as well as from key customers
and suppliers.
• The industry technology road mapping process needs participation from members of the industry,
its customers and suppliers, as well as government and universities. The focus should be on areas
of common need and adversarial conditions must be avoided.
• The technology road mapping process should be needs-driven rather than solution driven. There
must be a clear specification of the boundaries of the effort — what is and is not within the scope
of the technology roadmap and how will the roadmap be used.

2. Provide leadership/sponsorship.
Because of the time and effort involved in road mapping, there must be committed
leadership/sponsorship. Furthermore, this leadership/sponsorship must come from the group that
is going to do the actual implementation and benefit from it. For a corporate level technology
roadmap, this means that the line organization must drive the road mapping process and use the
roadmap to make resource allocation decisions. For an industry level technology roadmap, this
means that industry must lead the effort, although its customers and suppliers, along with
government and universities, should also be participants in developing, validating, and
implementing the technology roadmap.

3. Define the scope and boundaries for the technology roadmap.

This step ensures that the context for the roadmap has been specified. It develops or ensures that a
vision exists (for either the industry or corporation) and that a roadmap can support that vision. It
identifies why the technology roadmap is needed and how it will be used. Finally, it clearly
specifies the scope and boundaries of the roadmap. A roadmap starts with a set of needs. The
intended use of the roadmap determines the planning horizon and the level of detail. The time
horizon for roadmaps varies, but for industry roadmaps it is typically at least 10 to 15 years,
although there are intermediate points every three to five years. Corporate roadmaps may have a
shorter time horizon.

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This step is important for road mapping at both the corporate and industry level. However, it is
more difficult, complex, and time-consuming at the industry level for two reasons:
• First, there are many levels of needs, which must be decomposed, and different levels of product,
subsystems, and/or components that can be roadmapped. The level selected must have a
commonality for the various participants.
• Second, since many U.S. companies do not know how to effectively collaborate, this step (and
the previous two) involves a major learning effort, so this phase of industry road mapping can
easily take at least six months. The involvement of an industry umbrella organization, such as a
consortium or a trade association, can improve the speed and efficiency of the process and can
often provide some of the support resources.

Phase II. Development of the Technology Roadmap

This phase involves seven steps. These steps to create the actual technology roadmap are similar
for both corporate and industry technology roadmaps, but the resource and time requirements are
much greater for an industry roadmap. In both cases, working groups or teams are essential to
develop the content of the roadmap.

1. Identify the “product” that will be the focus of the roadmap.

The critical step in road mapping is to get the participants to identify and agree on common product
needs (e.g., for an energy-efficient vehicle) that must be satisfied. This agreement is important to
get their buy-in and acceptance of the road mapping process. Depending on the complexity of the
product, there may be many components and levels on which the roadmap may focus. Selecting
the appropriate focus is critical.

2. Identify the critical system requirements and their targets.

The critical system requirements provide the overall framework for the roadmap and are the high-
level dimensions to which the technologies relate. Once the participants have decided what needs
to be roadmapped (which is not a trivial process), they must identify the critical system
requirements. Examples of critical system requirements for an energy-efficient vehicle include
mpg, reliability, safety, and cost. Examples of targets include 60 miles per gallon (mpg) by 2000
and 80 mpg by 2005.

3. Specify the major technology areas.

These are the major technology areas that can help achieve the critical system requirements for the
product. Examples of technology areas to meet the performance target of 80 mpg by 2005 for an
energy efficient car include materials, engine controls, sensors, and modeling and simulation.

4. Specify the technology drivers and their targets.

At this point, the critical system requirements are transformed into technology oriented drivers for
the specific technology areas. These technology drivers are the critical variables that will
determine which technology alternatives are selected. For the materials technology area, examples
of technology drivers could include vehicle weight and acceptable engine temperature, while for
the engine controls technology area a technology driver could be the cycle time for the computer
controlling the engine.

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Technology drivers are dependent on the technology areas being considered, but they relate to how
the technology addresses the critical system requirements. At this point, technology driver targets
are also set based on the critical system requirement targets. The technology driver targets specify
how well a viable technology alternative must be able to perform by a certain date. For example,
to get 80 mpg by 2005 (a system requirement), engine control technology may need to be able to
deal with x number of variables and adjust engine parameters every y milliseconds, which requires
a processor cycle time of z (e.g., technology driver targets).

5. Identify technology alternatives and their time lines.

Once the technology drivers and their targets are specified, the technology alternatives that can
satisfy those targets must be identified. A difficult target may require breakthroughs in several
technologies or a technology may impact multiple targets. For each of the identified technology
alternatives, the roadmap must also estimate a time line for how it will mature with respect to the
technology driver targets. When multiple technologies are being pursued in parallel, decision
points need to be identified for when a technology will be considered the winner or when it will
be dropped from further consideration.

6. Recommend the technology alternatives that should be pursued.

This step selects the subset of technology alternatives to be pursued. These technology alternatives
vary in terms of cost, schedule, and/or performance. One path may get you there faster, another
path may be cheaper, while still another path may result in a 20 percent performance improvement
over the target. Considering the trade-offs, a faster path may not matter if the technology is not on
the critical path for the end product/service. However, if it is on the critical path, then a faster path
can result in faster time to market — an important competitive advantage.

In some cases, there may be analytical and modeling tools to help determine which technology
alternative to pursue and when to shift to a different technology (i.e., jump to a new technology
curve with a disruptive technology). In other cases, the tradeoffs and decisions are determined by
the best judgment of the experts. In either case, the road-mapping process has consolidated the
best information and develop a consensus from many experts. Furthermore, the road mapping
process (at either the corporate or the industry level) has begun a collaborative effort that, when
carried into the implementation, will result in more effective and efficient use of limited
technology investment resources.

7. Create the technology roadmap report.

By this point you have developed your roadmap(s). It becomes one of the documents within the
roadmap report. This report should also include:
• The identification and description of each technology area and its current status.
• Critical factors (show-stoppers) which if not met will cause the roadmap to fail.
• Areas not addressed in the roadmap.
• Technical recommendations.
• Implementation recommendations.
The report may also include additional information.

Phase III. Follow-up activity

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With early buy-in and support in Phase I, the follow-up activities will be much easier. Without this
buy-in, the technology roadmap may not address the issues that the key decision makers need to
resolve. As a consequence, the roadmap may not be used. Since relatively few people were
involved in developing and drafting the technology roadmap, it must now be critiqued, validated,
and accepted by a much larger group that will be involved in any implementation. An
implementation plan needs to be developed using the information generated by the technology
road mapping process to make and implement the appropriate investment decisions. Finally, since
both the needs and the technologies are evolving, the roadmap needs to be periodically reviewed
and updated.

1. Critique and validate the roadmap.

In Phase II, a relatively small group or groups of experts and technologists developed a draft
technology roadmap or roadmaps if multiple technology areas are involved. This work must be
exposed to a much larger group for validation and buy-in for two reasons:
• First, the draft needs to be reviewed, critiqued, and validated. If the recommended technology
alternatives are developed, will the targets be met? Are the technology alternatives reasonable?
Are any important technologies missed? Is the roadmap clear and understandable to people who
were not involved in the drafting process?
• Second, there must be buy-in from the broader corporate or industry group that will be involved
in implementing the plan. With an industry roadmap, a large, highly structured workshop is often
used to provide this feedback. Implicit in this step is the possible revision of the roadmap.

2. Develop an implementation plan.

At this point, there is enough information to make better technology selection and investment
decisions. Based on the recommended technology alternatives, a plan is then developed. At the
corporate level, the implementation plan may be one or more project plans, which would be
developed based on the selected technology alternatives. At the industry level, the same type of
project plan may be developed by the participants, but there is also a need for explicit coordination,
which is often done through an industry association. In other cases, there may not be an industry
plan — only corporate project plans by the participants.

3. Review and update.

Technology roadmaps and plans should be routinely reviewed and updated. A formal iterative
process occurs during this review and update. With the initial roadmap, uncertainty increases with
the time frame. Over time, as certain technologies are explored and better understood, some of this
uncertainty is reduced, although other areas of uncertainty may develop. Also if scenarios were
used up front to address uncertainty about the needs, there may be refinement, or even elimination,
of some of the scenarios, which could affect the roadmap or its implementation plan. The review
and update cycle allows both the roadmap and the implementation plan to be adjusted for these
changes. The review cycle may be based on a company’s normal planning cycle or based more
appropriately on the rate at which the technology is changing.

Technology Roadmap Example

This section provides an example of a needs-driven technology roadmap and Phase II of the
process to develop it. The SIA roadmap, which has become one of the most frequently referenced
examples of an industry technology roadmap, is used. The purpose of this example is to show the

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process flow from product need to actual roadmap, not to completely describe the SIA process and
roadmap.

First, the product focus of the roadmap was semiconductors, which could be used in various types
of products (such as memories, consumer products, portable computers, and high-performance
computers), each of which had different requirements. However, semiconductor manufacturing
technology was the common area on which the industry could cooperate. They competed on
semiconductor designs and the products that used them, not the underlying manufacturing
technology.

Second, the critical system requirements included smaller size (i.e., feature size), lower cost, and
power dissipation for portable equipment. As an example of targets, they projected feature size
between 1992 and 2007 as declining in three year increments from .5 to .1 microns.

Third, the roadmap identified 11 technical areas (e.g., chip design and test, lithography, and
manufacturing systems). Using the critical system requirements as an overall framework, teams
were set up for each technical area and technology roadmaps were developed for each area.

Fourth, each team developed a set of technology drivers specific to their area, which were derived
from and related to one or more of the critical system requirements. For example, technology
drivers in the lithography area that related to feature size included overlay, resolution, and device
size. The lithography area was further decomposed into exposure technology; mask writing,
inspection, repair, processing, and metrology; and resist, track, and metrology.

Fifth, for each technology area (e.g., lithography) and/or subarea (e.g., exposure technology), the
roadmap identified technology alternatives such as x-ray, e-beam, and ion projection. Technology
driver performance was projected for each technology alternative for various time points.

Sixth, based on these projections and their impact on the critical system requirement targets,
certain alternatives were recommended.

Seventh, the completed technology roadmap report was created in preparation for the follow-up
activity. A major workshop was held to critique and validate the roadmap.

The roadmap is being used by Sematech to evaluate and prioritize potential projects. Does the
project fit within the roadmap and if so, where? It has also been used by Sandia National
Laboratories to determine where its expertise can best be used and to develop projects that address
specific parts of the roadmap. Other Sematech participants can also use the roadmap to focus their
research and development activities. The roadmap has already undergone two review and revision
cycles. The current version [7] is now noticeably different from the initial version.

TECHNOLOGY PORTFOLIOS
Technology portfolio is one of the methods used in the analysis of development opportunities of
the company. Development of this method and its raise in popularity was due to continuous
development of products, stronger competition and rapidly changing technology. Quick change
in technology contribute to the fact that not every product has the time and ability to generate

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excess financial surplus. Often this causes crowding out products that have the
largest market share. In this situation, it is considered appropriate to use portfolio analysis methods.

Technology portfolio is determined on the basis of the position in life cycle of the technology, the
degree of attractiveness of future technology and the size of the production potential of the
company. It is measured on the basis of the comparative studies of the company and its
competition. The criteria for this evaluation are: the possibility of developing
the technology, process of dissemination of technology, level of standardization, possibility to
use technology in a variety of production fields, or the versatility of the technology, time
and cost needed for its development and implementation.

Stages of Design of Technology Portfolio

 the grouping of products according to technology used,
 determine the level of attractiveness of technology,
 to develop a forecast of anticipated technological changes in the industry and related sectors,
 determine the level of production with current technology
 estimation of the level of risk arising from the loss of technological advantage over competing
companies
 evaluation of the applicability of specific policies in the enterprise in the field of research and
development

The technology is attractive in situations where its application causes a reduction in costs as well
as enhance the quality of products. The attractiveness of the technology and its skillful use is the
basis for portfolio creation and according to these guidelines, the company can make a variety of
decisions, for example: invest in technologies implemented with medium or large mastery, select
and reject badly applied technologies. The concept of Technology portfolio encourage managers
to take action adjusted to the requirements of the market, as well as to cope with the competition.

Examples of Technology portfolio

 Strategic Technology Portfolio: A strategic technology portfolio is a comprehensive
assessment of the current and future potential of each technology within an organization’s
portfolio. It allows management to evaluate the relative strength and weaknesses of each
technology and make decisions on which technologies should be leveraged, developed, or
discarded.
 Technology Investment Portfolio: A technology investment portfolio is a systematic
approach to making decisions on which technologies to invest in. It takes into account a variety
of factors such as market trends, competitive advantage, and return on investment. This method
helps managers to assess the risks and rewards of investing in a given technology and make
decisions about the best way to allocate resources.
 Technology Roadmap: A technology roadmap is a tool that helps define the future direction
of a technology. It provides a comprehensive view of the technology landscape and how it is
likely to evolve over time. This tool is used to make decisions on which technologies should
be developed and which should be discarded.
 Technology Innovation Portfolio: A technology innovation portfolio is a comprehensive
assessment of an organization’s technology innovations. It helps to identify opportunities for

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 innovation, assess the risks and rewards associated with each innovation, and make decisions
on which technologies should be pursued.

Advantages of Technology Portfolio

Technology portfolio has a number of advantages. These include:
 Increased ability to forecast and plan for future technology developments. By constructing a
portfolio of technologies, it is possible to anticipate upcoming trends and optimize the
development of new technologies. This helps to ensure that the company remains competitive
in the market and is well-positioned to capitalize on new opportunities.
 Improved efficiency and effectiveness. By analyzing the Technology portfolio, companies can
identify the most cost-effective and efficient technologies to develop, leading to improved
performance and cost savings.
 Expand the competitive advantage. By utilizing a portfolio of technologies, a company can
develop a competitive edge by identifying areas of technology where they have an advantage
over their competitors. This can help a company to gain a foothold in new markets and to
differentiate itself from its rivals.
 Increased agility. By having a portfolio of technologies, companies can be more responsive to
changes in the market and adjust their strategies to capitalize on new opportunities. This allows
companies to remain agile and competitive in a fast-changing market.

Limitations of Technology Portfolio

One of the biggest limitations of Technology portfolio is that it does not take into account the
external environment. *It does not consider the impact of external factors such as customer
preferences, economic environment, competition, etc. on the development of new products. *It
also does not consider the cost of developing new products and the resources needed to bring a
new product to the market. *It ignores the customer's needs and preferences, which can have a
significant impact on the success of any product. *It also does not account for the changing
technology and does not consider the implications of changing technology on products and its
success. *In addition, it does not consider the long-term implications of launching a new product
and its potential to generate revenue in the future.

Other approaches related to Technology portfolio.

Technology portfolio is not the only method used for analysis of development opportunities of the
company. There are some other approaches that can be helpful in this process such as:
 Strategic Analysis – it is a method used for the analysis of the competition, environment,
resources and capabilities of a company. It helps to determine the development opportunities
and threats of the company.
 Market Analysis – it is used to analyze the current and potential market of the company. It
helps to identify the target groups, their needs, preferences and behavior.
 Financial Analysis – it is used to analyze the financial performance of the company. It helps
to identify the financial resources and the ability to finance the future projects.
 Product Analysis – it is used to analyze the existing products of the company. It helps to
identify the opportunities for product improvement and development.
 Technology Analysis – it is used to analyze the existing technologies used in the company. It
helps to identify the opportunities for technological improvement and development.

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In summary, there are several different approaches related to technology portfolio which can be
used for the analysis of development opportunities of the company. These methods are used to
identify the target groups, competition, financial resources, existing products and existing
technologies.

References
1. Farrell, J. L., & Reinhart, W. J. (1997). Portfolio management: theory and application.
McGraw-Hill.
2. Luehrman, T. A. (1998). Strategy as a portfolio of real options. Harvard business review,
76, 89-101.
3. Jon Agar (2019): What is technology, Annals of Science, DOI:
10.1080/00033790.2019.1672788

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