UNIVERSITI KEUSAHAWANAN KOPERASI MALAYSIA (UKKM)

NOOR AZLINA SHARIF MBACM23010012

QUESTION 1

Airline Performance Measures. On-Time Arrivals, Lost Baggage, And Customer

Complaints Are Three Measures That Are Typically Used To Measure The Quality Of
Service Being Offered By Airlines. Suppose That The Following Values Represent The
On- Time Arrival Percentage, Amount Of Lost Baggage, And Customer Complaints For
10 U.S. Airlines.

Customer
On-Time Arrivals Mishandled Complaints per
Airline (%) Baggage per 1,000 Passengers
1,000 Passengers

Virgin America 83.5 0.87 1.50

JetBlue 79.1 1.88 0.79
AirTran Airways 87.1 1.58 0.91
86.5 2.10 0.73
Delta Air Lines
Alaska Airlines 87.5 2.93 0.51
Frontier Airlines 77.9 2.22 1.05
Southwest Airlines 83.1 3.08 0.25
US Airways 85.9 2.14 1.74
American Airlines 76.9 2.92 1.80
United Airlines 77.4 3.87 4.24

a. Based on the data above, if you randomly choose a Delta Air Lines flight,
what is the probability that this individual flight will have an on-time arrival?
Based on the data provided, the on-time arrival percentage for Delta Air Lines is
86.5%. Therefore, if you randomly choose a Delta Air Lines flight, the probability that
this individual flight will have an on-time arrival is 86.5%.
b. If you randomly choose 1 of the 10 airlines for a follow-up study on airline
quality ratings, what is the probability that you will choose an airline with less
than two mishandled baggage reports per 1,000 passengers?
To find the probability of choosing an airline with less than two mishandled baggage
reports per 1,000 passengers, we need to identify the airlines that meet this criterion
and calculate the probability.
From the provided data, we can see the mishandled baggage per 1,000 passengers
for each airline. Airlines meeting the criterion are Virgin America, JetBlue, and
AirTran Airways.

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The probability (P) is given by the formula:

P (Mishandled Baggage < 2) =
Number of Airlines with Mishandled Baggage < 2 / Total Number Of Airlines
In this case, there are three airlines (Virgin America, JetBlue, and AirTran Airways)
with mishandled baggage less than two out of the total ten airlines.
P (Mishandled Baggage < 2) = 3 / 10
Therefore, the probability of randomly choosing an airline with less than two
mishandled baggage reports per 1,000 passengers is 3 / 10 or 0.3 (30%).

c. If you randomly choose 1 of the 10 airlines for a follow-up study on airline

quality ratings, what is the probability that you will choose an airline with more
than one customer complaint per 1,000 passengers?
To find the probability of choosing an airline with more than one customer complaint
per 1,000 passengers, we need to identify the airlines that have more than one
customer complaint and calculate the probability.
From the provided data, we can see the customer complaints per 1,000 passengers
for each airline. Airlines meeting the criterion are Virgin America, JetBlue, AirTran
Airways, Delta Air Lines, Alaska Airlines, and Southwest Airlines.
The probability (P) is given by the formula:
P(Customer Complaints > 1) =
Number of Airlines with Customer Complaints > 1 / Total Number Of Airlines
In this case, there are six airlines meeting the criterion out of the total ten airlines.
P (Customer Complaints > 1) = 6 / 10
Therefore, the probability of randomly choosing an airline with more than one
customer complaint per 1,000 passengers is 6 / 10 or 0.6 (60%).

d. What is the probability that a randomly selected AirTran Airways flight will
not arrive on time?

To find the probability that a randomly selected AirTran Airways flight will not arrive
on time, we need to look at the on-time arrival percentage for AirTran Airways.
According to the provided data:

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On-Time Arrival Percentage for AirTran Airways: 87.1%

The probability of not arriving on time P(Not On-Time)) is the complement of the
probability of arriving on time:

P (Not On – Time) = 1−P (On-Time)

P (Not On-Time) = 1 − 0.871
P (Not On-Time) = 0.129

Therefore, the probability that a randomly selected AirTran Airways flight will not
arrive on time is 0.129 or 12.9%.

QUESTION 2

Rolling a Pair of Dice. Consider the random experiment of rolling a pair of dice.
Suppose that we are interested in the sum of the face values showing on the dice.

a. How many outcomes are possible?

b. List the outcomes.
c. What is the probability of obtaining a value of 7?
d. What is the probability of obtaining a value of 9 or greater?

Answer (a)

When rolling a pair of six-sided dice, each die has numbers 1 through 6 on its faces.
The total number of outcomes is given by the product of the number of outcomes on
each die.
Since there are 6 outcomes for the first die and 6 outcomes for the second die, the
total number of outcomes is 6 × 6 = 36
6 × 6 = 36
Therefore, there are 36 possible outcomes when rolling a pair of dice.

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Answer (b)
To list all the possible outcomes when rolling a pair of dice, we can consider the
combinations of numbers that can appear on each die. Here's a table showing all the
outcomes:

Dice 1 Dice 2 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)

Each entry represents one possible outcome, where the first number is the result on
the first dice, and the second number is the result on the second dice. There are 36
outcomes in total.

Answer (c)
To find the probability of obtaining a sum of 7 when rolling a pair of dice, we need to
count the number of favorable outcomes (combinations that result in a sum of 7) and
divide it by the total number of possible outcomes.
Favorable outcomes for a sum of 7 are: (1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), and (6,1).
There are 6 favorable outcomes.
The total number of possible outcomes is 36 (as calculated in part a).
The probability (P) is given by the formula:
P (Sum of 7) = Number of Favorable Outcomes / The total number of possible
outcomes
P (Sum of 7) = 6 / 36
Simplify the fraction:
P (Sum of 7) = 1/6
Therefore, the probability of obtaining a sum of 7 when rolling a pair of dice is 1 / 6

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Answer (d)
To find the probability of obtaining a sum of 9 or greater when rolling a pair of dice,
we need to count the number of favorable outcomes (combinations that result in a
sum of 9 or greater) and divide it by the total number of possible outcomes.

Favourable outcomes for a sum of 9 or greater include:

(3,6), (4,5), (4,6), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), and (6,6).
There are 10 favourable outcomes.
The total number of possible outcomes is 36 (as calculated in part a).

The probability (P) is given by the formula:

P (Sum of 9 or greater) = Number of Favourable Outcomes /Total number of
possible outcomes

P (Sum of 9 or greater) = 10 / 36

Simplify the fraction:

P (Sum of 9 or greater) = 5 / 18
Therefore, the probability of obtaining a sum of 9 or greater when rolling a pair of
dice is 5 / 18

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QUESTION 3
Ivy League College Admissions. Suppose that for a recent admissions class, an Ivy
League college received 2,851 applications for early admission. Of this group, it
admitted 1,033 students early, rejected 854 outright, and deferred 964 to the regular
admission pool for further consideration. In the past, this school has admitted 18% of
the deferred e eaty admission applicants during the regular admission process.
Counting the students admitted early and the students admitted during the regular
admission process, the total class size was 2,375. Let E, R, and D represent the events
that a student who applies for early admission is admitted early, rejected outright, or
deferred to the regular admissions pool.
A. Use the data to estimate P(E), P(R), and P(D)
To estimate the probabilities P(E), P(R), and P(D), we can use the given information:
To define the events:
E : Student is admitted early
R : Student is rejected outright
D : Student is deferred to the regular admissions pool

Given data:
• Total early admission applications (n): 2,851
• Admitted early (E): 1,033
• Rejected outright (R): 854
• Deferred to regular admission (D): 964
• Admitted during regular admission from the deferred pool: 18% of 964

Calculate the probabilities:

Probability of being admitted early [P(E)]:
P(E) = Number of students admitted early / Total number of early admission
Applications

= 1033 / 2851
= 0.36 / 36%

Probability of being rejected outright [P(R)]

P (R ) = Number of students rejected outright / Total number of early
admission applications

= 854 / 2851
= 0.29 / 29.9 %

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Probability of being deferred to the regular admissions pool [P(D)]:

P(D) = Number of students deferred / Total number of early admission
Applications

P(D) = 964 / 2851

P(D) = 0.33 / 33%

B. Are events E and D mutually exclusive? Find P(E n D)

Given that the probability of being admitted during regular admission given deferral
P(E∣D)) is 18%, and assuming this is the only way a student can be admitted (either
early or during regular admission), we can conclude that P(E∩D)= 0.
Therefore, events E and D are mutually exclusive.
As for P(E∪D) (the probability of being either admitted early or deferred), it can be
calculated as the sum of P(E) and P(D) since they are mutually exclusive:
P(E∪D) = P(E) + P(D)

P(E∪D) = P(E) + P(D)

P(E)= 1,033 / 2,851 + P(D) = 964 / 2851

Now, substitute these values into the formula:

P(E∪D) = 1,033 / 2,851 + 964 / 2851
P(E∪D) = 1033 + 964 / 2851
P(E∪D) = 1997 / 2851
P(E∪D) = 0.7004 / 70.04%
Simplify this fraction or express it as a decimal or percentage.
So, P(E∪D) is approximately 0.7004, meaning the probability of being either
admitted early or deferred is around 70.04%.

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C. For the 2,375 students who were admitted, what is the probability that a
randomly selected student was accepted during early admission?
To find the probability that a randomly selected student from the 2,375 students who
were admitted was accepted during early admission P(E), we can use the following
formula:
P(E) = Number of students admitted early / Total number of admitted
Students

From the given information:

Number of students admitted early (E): 1,033
Total number of admitted students: 2,375

P (E) = 1,033 / 2375

P (E) = 0.4349
Therefore, the probability that a randomly selected student from the 2,375 students
who were admitted was accepted during early admission is approximately 43.49%.

D. Suppose a student applies for early admission. What is the probability

that the student will be admitted for early admission or be deferred and later
admitted during the regular admission process?
To find the probability that a student applying for early admission will either be
admitted early or be deferred and later admitted during the regular admission
process P(E∪D)), we can use the previously calculated probabilities
P(E∪D) = P(E) + P(D)
From the previous calculations:
P(E) = 0.4356
P(D) = 964 / 2851
Now, substitute these values into the formula:
P(E∪D) = 0.4356 + 964 / 2851
= 0.4356 + 0.3381
= 0.7737
Therefore, the probability that a student applying for early admission will either be
admitted early or be deferred and later admitted during the regular admission
process is approximately 77.37%.

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QUESTION 4

Two Events, A and B. Suppose that we have two events, A and B, with P(A) =
0.50, P(B) = 0.60, and P(A∩B) = 0.40.

a. Find P(AB).
The notation P(A∩B) represents the probability of the intersection of events A and B,
and it is also denoted as P(AB).
Given that P(A)=0.50, P(B)=0.60, and P(A∩B)=0.40, you can use the following
formula:
P(AB) = P(A∩B)
P(AB) = 0.40
Therefore, (AB)=0.40.

b. Find P(B|A).
The conditional probability P(B∣A) represents the probability of event B occurring
given that event A has already occurred. It is calculated using the formula:
P(B∣A) = P(A)P(A∩B)
Given that P(A∩B) = 0.40 and P(A) = 0.50, you can substitute these values into the
formula:
P(B∣A) = 0.500.40
P(B∣A) = 0.80
Therefore, P(B∣A)=0.80.

c. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?

Events A and B are independent if the occurrence of one event does not affect the
probability of the occurrence of the other. Mathematically, this is expressed as:
P(A∩B) = P(A)⋅P(B)
Given that P(A) = 0.50, P(B) = 0.60, and P(A∩B) = 0.40, let's check if the
independence condition holds:
P(A∩B) = ? P(A) ⋅ P(B)
0.40 = ? (0.50) ⋅ (0.60) 0.40 =? (0.50)⋅(0.60)

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0.40 = ? 0.300.40 = ? 0.30

The equation does not hold true, so A and B are not independent events. The
occurrence of one event affects the probability of the occurrence of the other. In this
case, the actual joint probability P(A∩B) is not equal to the product of the individual
probabilities P(A) and P(B).

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QUESTION 5

Intent to Pursue MBA. Students taking the Graduate Management Admissions

Test (GMAT) were asked about their undergraduate major and intent to pursue
their MBA as a full-time or part-time student. A summary of their responses is
as follows:

Undergraduate Major Full-time Part-time Total

Engineering 197 161 358

Business 352 150 502

Other 194 445 639

Total 743 756 1499

a. Developing a joint probability table:

We have the following data:
• Undergraduate Majors: Engineering, Business, Other
• Intended Enrollment Status: Full-time, Part-time
We need to construct a joint probability table based on the given data:

Undergraduate Major Full-time Part-time Total

Engineering 197 / 358 161 / 358 1

Business 352 / 502 150 / 502 1

Other 194 / 639 445 / 639 1

Each row represents the joint probabilities for each combination of undergraduate
major and intent to pursue an MBA as full-time or part-time.

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b. Commenting on which undergraduate major produces the most potential

MBA students:
To determine which undergraduate major produces the most potential MBA students,
we need to examine the marginal probabilities of intended enrollment status (full-time
or part-time) across the different undergraduate majors. The undergraduate major
with the highest total number of potential MBA students (across both full-time and
part-time) would be considered as producing the most potential MBA students.
Comparing the marginal probabilities:
Engineering:
Full-time : (approximately 0.5506)
Part-time : (approximately 0.4494)

Business:
Full-time : (approximately 0.7012)
Part-time : (approximately 0.2988)

Other:

Full-time : (approximately 0.3036)

Part-time : (approximately 0.6964)

From the table, it's evident that the Business undergraduate major has the highest
total number of potential MBA students, with a total of 502 individuals.
Observations:
For Full-time MBA, Business majors have the highest probability (0.7012), followed
by Other majors (0.3036), and then Engineering majors (0.5506).
For Part-time MBA, Other majors have the highest probability (0.6964), followed by
Business majors (0.2988), and then Engineering majors (0.4494).

c. Finding the probability that a student was an undergraduate engineering

major given they intend to attend classes full-time:
We need to calculate the conditional probability P(Engineering∣Full-time)
Using the joint probability table:
(Engineering∣Full-time)
________________________________________
Total number of students intending to attend full-time

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From the table:

Number of Engineering students intending to attend full-time = 197
Total number of students intending to attend full-time = 743
P(Engineering∣Full-time) = 197 / 143 = 0.2649

So, the probability that a student who intends to attend classes full-time in pursuit of
an MBA degree was an undergraduate engineering major is approximately 0.2649

d. If a student was an undergraduate business major, what is the probability

that the student intends to attend classes full time in pursuit of an MBA
degree?

We need to calculate the conditional probability P(Full-time∣Business).

Using the joint probability table:
P(Full-time∣Business) = Number of Bisnes students intending to attend full-time/
Total number of Business

From the table:

Number of Business students intending to attend full-time = 352

Total number of Business students = 502

P(Full-time∣Business) = 352 / 502 = 0.7012

So, the probability that a student who was an undergraduate business major intends
to attend classes full time in pursuit of an MBA degree is approximately 0.7012.

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e. Let F denote the event that the student intends to attend classes full time in
pursuit of an MBA degree, and let B denote the event that the student was an
undergraduate business major. Are events F and B independent? Justify your
answer.

Events F (intends to attend classes full time) and B (was an undergraduate business
major) are independent if the occurrence or non-occurrence of one event does not
affect the probability of the occurrence of the other.
To check for independence, we can compare the conditional probability P(F∣B) with
the marginal probability P(F). If P(F∣B) = P(F), then the events are independent.

P(F∣B) = Number of Business students intending to attend full-time / Total number of

Business students
P(F) = Total number of students intending to attend full-time / Total number of
students
From the joint probability table:
Number of Business students intending to attend full-time = 352
Total number of Business students = 502
Total number of students intending to attend full-time = 743
Total number of students = 1499

P(F∣B) = 352 / 502 = 0.7012

P(F) = 743 / 1499 = 0.4950

Since P(F∣B) not equal to P (F), the events F and B are dependent. The probability of
intending to attend classes full time depends on whether the student was an
undergraduate business major or not.

Prepared by,
NOOR AZLINA SHARIF
MBACM23010012

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