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TOM Sesi 3 - Forecasting Worksheet
TOM Sesi 3 - Forecasting Worksheet
TOM Sesi 3 - Forecasting Worksheet
MONTH
SALES
January 10
February 12
March 13
April 16
May 19
June 23
July 26
August 30
September 28
October 18
November 16
December 14
Ft = Ft – 1 + a(At – 1 – Ft –
F(t-1) 142
A(t-1) 153
Alpha 0.2
F(t) 144.2
Forecast with
Alpha = 0.2 Beta = 0.4
SMOOTHED FORECAST
MONTH ACTUAL DEMAND SMOOTHED TREND, Tt
AVERAGE, Ft
1 12 11.000 2.000
2 17
3 20
4 19
5 24
6 21
7 31
8 28
9 36
10 —
d over that periode (T1) was 2 units
Ft = a(At - 1) + (1 - a)(Ft - 1 + Tt - 1)
FORECAST INCLUDING
TREND, FITt
Tt = b(Ft - Ft - 1) + (1 - b)Tt - 1
+ Tt - 1 )
Year (x) Demand (y)
1 74
2 79
^
3
4
80
90 y = a + bx
5 105
6 142
7 122
8 141.002
9 151.538
Chart Title
160
140
40
20
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Chart Title
142
3 4 5 6 7 8
DEMAND
MONTH YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 AVERAGE YEARLY
DEMAND
Jan 80 85 105 90
Feb 70 85 85 80
Mar 80 93 82 85
Apr 90 95 115 100
May 113 125 131 123
June 110 115 120 115
July 100 102 113 105
Aug 88 102 110 100
Sept 85 90 95 90
Oct 77 78 85 80
Nov 75 82 83 80
Dec 82 78 80 80
5.00 5.00 5
-7.50 -9.50 7.5
-15.75 -13.75 15.75
1.82 9.13 1.82499999999999
16.64 19.56 16.6425
29.98 24.78 29.97825
1.98 -12.61 1.98042499999997
3.78 -4.30 3.78238249999998
10.3073196875
5 25.00 25.00
9.5 56.25 90.25
13.75 248.06 189.06
9.125 3.33 83.27
19.5625 276.97 382.69
24.78125 898.70 614.11
12.609375 3.92 159.00
4.3046875 14.31 18.53
12.3291015625 190.82 195.24
2.78%
5.65%
8.65%
5.21%
10.30%
12.09%
7.01%
2.37%
6.76%