Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

China, Taiwan and the South
China Sea
March 17, 2024

How is China's aggression in the South China Sea related to its strategy toward Taiwan,
if at all?
ANSWER: In 2021, the Commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command and the
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff both made publica remarks that Xi Jinping has
told the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.
Doubts were raised about Xi’s intentions to carry out such an invasion. However,
China’s reaction to U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August
2022, by carrying out massive military exercises around Taiwan, reinforced the view
in the intelligence community that China was building up the capability to invade
Taiwan.
The linkage between China’s aggression against the Philippines and China’s strategy
towards Taiwan was forged when Ferdinand Marcos Jr. became president of the
Philippines in June 2022 and began to reassert Philippine sovereignty over the West
Philippine Sea at the same time as he sought to revitalise the Mutual Defense Treaty
with the United States.
In April 2023, the Philippines agreed to give the United States temporary access to
four additional military bases under the 2016 Enhanced Defence Cooperation
Agreement, bringing the total up to nine. Two of the bases are in the northern
Philippines looking out on the Bashi Channel in Luzon Straight. This is a vital waterway
that the PLA Navy must transit in order to encircle Taiwan from the east.
The United States seeks to deter China from attacking Taiwan and therefore conducts
military exercises with the Armed Forces of the Philippines to demonstrate coastal
defence and amphibious prowess. U.S. and Filipino forces in the northern Philippines
would be able to monitor and strike Chinese forces in the event a conflict over Taiwan
broke out. In addition, the Philippines and the U.S. have a shared interest in evacuating
their citizens from Taiwan in the event of a conflict. There are an estimated 154,000
Overseas Filipino Workers presently residing on Taiwan.
China’s strategy is to use sufficient force by its Coast Guard and Maritime Militia
vessels (dangerous manoeuvres at sea, high-pressure water cannons, military grade
lasers and fire control radar) to impress upon the Philippines the asymmetry in power
between them. China also employs “three warfares” (psychological, information and
legal) to sow doubts in the minds of Philippine people and its leaders about the
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reliability of the United States as a treaty ally to protect the Philippines in a time of
armed conflict.
In other words, China seeks to blunt U.S. deterrence by arousing Filipino public
opinion to deny the United States access to Philippine military bases.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “China, Taiwan and the South China Sea,” Thayer
Consultancy Background Brief, March 17, 2024. All background briefs are posted on
Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type,
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

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