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Practice Sheet AIHL MS

1. EXN.2.AHL.TZ0.6

(a)

[2]

Markscheme

* This sample question was produced by experienced DP mathematics senior


examiners to aid teachers in preparing for external assessment in the new MAA
course. There may be minor differences in formatting compared to formal exam
papers.
Let 𝑋 represent the mass of a melon P(𝑋 > 3.0) = 0.212 (0.2118 … ) (M1)A1
[2 marks]

(b)

[2]

Markscheme

0.2118 … × 0.2118 … (M1) = 0.0449 (0.04488 … ) A1 [2 marks]

(c)

[2]

Markscheme

Let 𝑇 represent the total mass E(𝑇) = 5.2 A1 Var(𝑇) = 0.52 + 0.52 = 0.5
(M1)A1 𝑇 ∼ N(5.2, 0.5) P(𝑇 > 6.0) = 0.129 (0.1289 … ) A1 [4 marks]

(d)

[4]

Markscheme

0.52
Under H0 𝑋 ∼ N (2.6, 16
) A1 P(𝑋 > 𝑎) = 0.05 (M1) 𝑎 =
2.81 (2.805606 … ) (A1) Critical region is 𝑋 > 2.81 A1 [4 marks]
(e)

[3]

Markscheme

Let 𝑊 represent the new mass of the melons E(𝑊) = 1.1 × 2.6 = 2.86 A1
Standard deviation of 𝑊 = 1.1 × 0.5 (M1) = 0.55 A1 Note: award
M1A0 for Var(𝑊) = 1.12 × 0.52 = 0.3025 [3 marks]

2. EXM.2.AHL.TZ0.28

(a.i)

[5]

Markscheme
1×32+⋯+4×14
Mean = 100
M1A1
= 1.8 A1
4𝑝̂ = 1.8 ⇒ 𝑝̂ = 0.45 M1A1
[5 marks]

3. 22N.2.SL.TZ0.4

(a.i)

[1]

Markscheme

(𝑚 =) 54% A1

Note: Based on their 𝑛, follow through for parts (i) and (iii), but only if it does not
contradict the given information. Follow through for part (iv) but only if the total
is 100%.

[1 mark]

(a.ii)

[1]

Markscheme

(𝑛 =) 14% A1
Note: Based on their 𝑛, follow through for parts (i) and (iii), but only if it does not
contradict the given information. Follow through for part (iv) but only if the total
is 100%.

[1 mark]

(a.iii)

[1]

Markscheme

(𝑝 =) 22% A1

Note: Based on their 𝑛, follow through for parts (i) and (iii), but only if it does not
contradict the given information. Follow through for part (iv) but only if the total
is 100%.

[1 mark]

(a.iv)

[1]

Markscheme

(𝑞 =) 10% A1

Note: Based on their 𝑛, follow through for parts (i) and (iii), but only if it does not
contradict the given information. Follow through for part (iv) but only if the total is
100%.

[1 mark]

(b)

[1]

Markscheme

90 (%) A1

Note: Award A0 for a decimal answer.

[1 mark]
(c.i)

[1]

Markscheme

54 27
0.54 (100 , 50
, 54%) A1

[1 mark]

(c.ii)

[2]

Markscheme

54 27
64
(0.844, 32
, 84.4%, 0.84375) A1A1

Note: Award A1 for a correct denominator (0.64 or 64 seen), A1 for the correct
final answer.

[2 marks]

(d.i)

[2]

Markscheme

recognizing Binomial distribution with correct parameters (M1)


𝑋 ∼ B(10, 0.68)
(P(𝑋 = 5) =) 0.123 (0.122940 … , 12.3%) A1

[2 marks]

(d.ii)

[2]

Markscheme

1 − P(𝑋 ≤ 3) OR P(𝑋 ≥ 4) OR P(4 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 10) (M1)


0.984 (0.984497 … , 98.4%) A1

[2 marks]
(d.iii)

[3]

Markscheme

(0.68)9 × 0.32 (M1)


recognition of two possible cases (M1)
2 × ((0.68)9 × 0.32)
0.0199 (0.0198957 … , 1.99%) A1

[3 marks]

(e)

[1]

Markscheme

EITHER
the probability is not constant A1
OR
the events are not independent A1
OR
the events should be modelled by the hypergeometric distribution instead
A1

[1 mark]

4. 22N.2.AHL.TZ0.6

(a)

[5]

Markscheme

wood layer, 𝑊 ∼ N(7, 0.32 ); plastic 𝑃 ∼ N(3, 0.162 )


door: 𝑋 = 𝑊 + 𝑃
E(𝑋) = 10 (mm) (A1)
Var(𝑋) = Var(𝑊) + Var(𝑃) = 0.1156 (mm2 ) (M1)(A1)
recognizing the distribution is Normal, with their mean and variance
(M1)
𝑋 ∼ N(10, 0.342 )
P(𝑋 < 9.5) = 0.0707 (0.07070125 … ) A1

[5 marks]
(b)

[4]

Markscheme

E(𝑇) = 80 (A1)
Var(𝑇)(= 0.1156 × 8) = 0.9248 (M1)(A1)
𝑇 ∼ N(80, 0.9248)
P(𝑇 > 82) = 0.0188 (0.0187753 … ) A1

[4 marks]

(c)

[1]

Markscheme

6.93 mm (6.93428 … ) A1

[1 mark]

(d)

[2]

Markscheme

(𝑆𝑛−1 =) 0.404 (A1)


2 2
(𝑆𝑛−1 =) 0.163 mm (0.162928 … ) A1

[2 marks]

5. 22M.2.SL.TZ1.5

(a)

[3]

Markscheme

(let 𝑇 be the number of passengers who arrive)


(P(𝑇 > 72) =) P(𝑇 ≥ 73) OR 1 − P(𝑇 ≤ 72) (A1)
𝑇 ∼ B(74, 0.9) OR 𝑛 = 74 (M1)
= 0.00379 (0.00379124 … ) A1

Note: Using the distribution B(74, 0.1), to work with the 10% that do not arrive for
the flight, here and throughout this question, is a valid approach.
[3 marks]

(b)

[2]

Markscheme

72 × 0.9 (M1)
64.8 A1

[2 marks]

(c)

[2]

Markscheme

𝑛 × 0.9 = 72 (M1)
80 A1

[2 marks]

6. 21N.2.AHL.TZ0.3

(a.i)

[2]

Markscheme

Let 𝑋 be the random variable “distance from O”.


𝑋 ∼ N(10, 32 )
P(𝑋 < 13) = 0.841 (0.841344 … ) (M1)(A1)

[2 marks]

(a.ii)

[1]

Markscheme

(P(𝑋 > 15) =) 0.0478 (0.0477903) A1


[1 mark]

(b)

[2]

Markscheme

P(𝑋 > 15) × P(𝑋 > 15) (M1)


= 0.00228 (0.00228391 … ) A1

[2 marks]

(c)

[2]

Markscheme

1 − (0.8143)3 (M1)
0.460 (0.460050 … ) A1

[2 marks]

(d.i)

[4]

Markscheme

let 𝑌 be the random variable “number of points scored”


evidence of use of binomial distribution (M1)
𝑌 ∼ B(10, 0.539949 … ) (A1)
(E(𝑌) =) 10 × 0.539949 … (M1)
= 5.40 A1

[4 marks]

(d.ii)

[1]

Markscheme

(P(𝑌 ≥ 5) =) 0.717 (0.716650 … ) A1

[1 mark]
(d.iii)

[2]

Markscheme

P(5 ≤ 𝑌 < 8) (M1)


= 0.628 (0.627788 … ) A1

Note: Award M1 for a correct probability statement or indication of correct lower


and upper bounds, 5 and 7.

[2 marks]

(d.iv)

[2]

Markscheme

P(5≤𝑌<8) 0.627788…
P(𝑌≥5)
(= 0.716650…) (M1)
= 0.876 (0.876003 … ) A1

[2 marks]

7. 21N.2.AHL.TZ0.7

(a.i)

[5]

Markscheme

Under H0 let 𝑊 be the number of patients waiting more than 20 minutes


𝑊 ∼ B(150, 0.05) (A1)
P(𝑊 ≥ 11) = 0.132 (0.132215 …) (M1)A1
since 0.132 > 0.1 R1
(fail to reject H0 )
insufficient evidence to suggest they are not meeting their target A1

Note: Do not accept “they are meeting target” for the A1. Accept use of
B(150, 0.95) and P(𝑊 ≤ 139) and any consistent use of a random variable,
appropriate 𝑝-value and significance level.

[5 marks]
8. 21M.2.SL.TZ2.4

(a)

[2]

Markscheme

A1A1
Note: Award A1 for a normal curve with mean labelled 6.1 or 𝜇, A1 for indication
of SD (0.5): marks on horizontal axis at 5.6 and/or 6.6 OR 𝜇 − 0.5 and/or 𝜇 + 0.5
on the correct side and approximately correct position.

[2 marks]

(b)

[2]

Markscheme

𝑋 ∼ N(6.1, 0.52 ) P(5.5 < 𝑋 < 6.5) OR labelled sketch of region (M1) =
0.673 (0.673074 … ) A1
[2 marks]

(c)

[3]

Markscheme

(P(𝑋 < 5.3) =) 0.0547992 … (A1) 0.0547992 … × 80 (M1) =


4.38 (4.38393 … ) A1
[3 marks]

(d)

[3]
Markscheme

0.15 OR 0.85 (A1) P(𝑋 > 𝑥) = 0.15 OR P(𝑋 < 𝑥) = 0.85 OR labelled
sketch of region (M1) 6.62 (6.61821 … ) A1
[3 marks]

(e)

[4]

Markscheme

(P(𝑋 > 6.25) =) 0.382088 … (A1) recognition of binomial (M1)


e.g. B(10, 0.382088 … 0.0502
) (0.0501768 …) A2
[4 marks]

9. 20N.2.SL.TZ0.S_3

(a)

[2]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor
differences in marking or structure.
evidence of summing probabilities to 1 (M1)
eg 𝑞 + 4𝑝 + 𝑝 + 0.7 − 4𝑝 = 1, 1 − 4𝑝2 − 𝑝 − 0.7 + 4𝑝2 𝑞 = 0.3 − 𝑝
2 2
A1
N2 [2 marks]

(b.i)

[3]

Markscheme

correct substitution into E(𝑋) formula (A1) eg 0 × (0.3 − 𝑝) + 1 × 4𝑝2 +


2
2 × 𝑝 + 3 × (0.7 − 4𝑝 ) valid approach to find when E(𝑋) is a maximum (M1)
−𝑏 −2 1
eg max on sketch of E(𝑋), 8𝑝 + 2 + 3 × (−8𝑝) = 0, 2𝑎 = 2×(−8) 𝑝 = 8 (=
1
0.125) (exact) (accept 𝑥 = 8) A1 N3 [3 marks]
(b.ii)

[1]

Markscheme
89
2.225 40 (exact), 2.23 A1 N1 [1 mark]

10. 20N.2.SL.TZ0.T_6

(a)

[2]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor
differences in marking or structure.

(A1)(A1)

Note: Award (A1) for bell shaped curve with mean 𝑚 or 13.6 indicated. Award
(A1) for approximately correct shaded region.
[2 marks]
(b)

[2]

Markscheme

P(𝑇 > 17.8) = 0.3 (M1)

OR
(M1)
Note: Award (M1) for correct probability equation using 0.3 OR correctly shaded
diagram indicating 17.8. Strict or weak inequalities are accepted in parts (b), (c)
and (d).
13.6+17.8 17.8−13.6 17.8−13.6
2
(17.8 − 2
) OR (13.6 + 2
) (M1)
13.6+17.8 17.8−13.6
Note: Award (M0)(M1) for unsupported 2
OR (17.8 − 2
) OR (13.6 +
17.8−13.6
2
)
OR the midpoint of 13.6 and 17.8 is 15.7.
Award at most (M1)(M0) if the final answer is not seen. Award (M0)(M0) for using
known values 𝑚 = 15.7 and 𝜎 = 4 to validate P(𝑇 < 17.8) = 0.7 or P(𝑇 < 13.6) =
0.3.
15.7 (AG)
[2 marks]
(c.i)

[2]

Markscheme

P(13 ≤ 𝑇 ≤ 18) (M1)

OR
(M1)
Note: Award (M1) for correct probability equation OR correctly shaded diagram
indicating 13 and 18.
0.468 (46.8%, 0.467516 … ) (A1)(G2)
[2 marks]

(c.ii)

[2]

Markscheme

P(𝑇 ≥ 20) (M1)

OR
(M1)
Note: Award (M1) for correct probability equation OR correctly shaded diagram
indicating 20.
0.141 (14.1%, 0.141187 … ) (A1)(G2)
[2 marks]

(d)

[2]

Markscheme

P(𝑇 < 𝑡) = 0.6 (M1)

OR
(M1)
Note: Award (M1) for correct probability equation OR for a correctly shaded
region with 𝑥 indicated to the right-hand side of the mean.
16.7 (16.7133 … ) (A1)(G2)
[2 marks]

(e)

[3]

Markscheme

0.467516 … × 0.141187 … × 2 (M1)(M1)


OR
(0.467516 … × 0.141187 … ) + (0.141187 … × 0.467516 … ) (M1)(M1)
Note: Award (M1) for the multiplication of their parts (c)(i) and (c)(ii), (M1) for
multiplying their product by 2 or for adding their products twice. Follow through
from part (c).
0.132 (13.2%, 0.132014 … ) (A1)(ft)(G2)
Note: Award (G0) for an unsupported final answer of 0.066007 …
[3 marks]

(f)

[2]
Markscheme
69
× 200 (M1)
102
Note: Award (M1) for correct probability multiplied by 200.
135 (135.294 … ) (A1)(G2)
[2 marks]

(g)

[2]

Markscheme

67
(98 × 200 =) 136.734 … (A1)
Note: Award (M1) for 137 or 136.734 … seen.
Emlyn is incorrect, 135 < 137 (135.294 … < 136.734 … ) (R1)
Note: To award the final (R1), both the conclusion and the comparison must be
seen. Award at most (A0)(R1)(ft) for consistent incorrect methods in parts (f) and
(g).
OR
67 69
(98 =) 0.684 (0.683673 … ) (102 =) 0.676 (0.676470 … ) (A1)
Note: Award (A1) for both correct probabilities seen.
Emlyn is incorrect, 0.676 < 0.684 (R1)
Note: To award the final (R1), both the conclusion and the comparison must be
seen. Award at most (A0)(R1)(ft) for consistent incorrect methods in parts (f) and
(g).
[2 marks]

11. 20N.2.AHL.TZ0.H_2

[4]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor
differences in marking or structure.
let 𝛸 be the random variable “number of books Jenna reads per week.”
then 𝛸 ∼ Po (2.6) $\text{P}\left( {Χ \geq 4} \right) = 0\operatorname{.264~}\left(
{0.263998\ldots} \right)$ (M1)(A1) 0.263998 … × 52 (M1) = 13.7 A1
Note: Accept 14 weeks.
[4 marks]
12. 20N.2.AHL.TZ0.H_5

(a.i)

[2]

Markscheme

people’s holidays are independent of each other R1 the proportion is constant


(at 0.15) R1
[2 marks]

(a.ii)

[2]

Markscheme

𝛸 ∼ B(16, 0.15) P(𝛸 ≥ 3) = 0.439 (M1)A1


[2 marks]

(b)

[3]

Markscheme

probability of at least one = 1 − probability of none ⇒ 1 − 0.85𝑛 > 0.999


OR 0.85𝑛 < 0.001 (A1) attempt to solve inequality (M1) 𝑛 ≥ 42.503 … so
least possible 𝑛 = 43 A1
[3 marks]

13. 20N.2.AHL.TZ0.H_9

(a)

[2]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor
differences in marking or structure.
𝛸 ∼ N(102, 82 )
P(𝛸 < 100) = 0.401 (M1)A1
[2 marks]
(b)

[2]

Markscheme

P(𝛸 > 𝑤) = 0.444 (M1) ⇒ 𝑤 = 103 (g) A1


[2 marks]

(c)

[3]

Markscheme

P(𝛸>100∩𝛸>105) P(𝛸>100) 0.15865…


P(𝛸 > 100 𝛸 > 105) = (M1) = (A1) = =
P(𝛸>105) P(𝛸>105) 0.35383…
0.448 A1
[3 marks]

(d)

[3]

Markscheme

EITHER
P(90 < 𝛸 < 114) = 0.866 … (A1)
OR
P(−1.5 < 𝑍 < 1.5) = 0.866 … (A1)
THEN
0.866 … × 500 (M1) = 433 A1
[3 marks]

(e)

[4]

Markscheme

𝑝 = P(𝛸 < 95) = 0.19078 … (A1) recognising 𝑌 ∼ B(80, 𝑝) (M1) now


using 𝑌 ∼ B(80, 0.19078 … ) (M1) P(𝑌 ≥ 20) = 0.116 A1
[4 marks]
14. 19N.2.AHL.TZ0.H_2

(a)

[2]

Markscheme

𝑋 ∼ Po(1.3) P(𝑋 ≥ 2) = 0.373 (M1)A1 [2 marks]

(b)

[4]

Markscheme

𝑉 ∼ B(5, 0.373) (M1)A1 Note: Award (M1) for recognition of binomial or


equivalent, A1 for correct parameters. P(𝑉 = 4) = 0.0608 (M1)A1 [4 marks]

15. 18N.2.SL.TZ0.S_9

(c)

[6]

Markscheme

correct work for P(group X and 𝑡 > 0.65) or P(group Y and 𝑡 > 0.65) (may be
seen anywhere) (A1)
eg P(group X) × P(𝑡 > 0.65|X), P(X ∩ 𝑡 > 0.65) = 0.0107 × 0.38(= 0.004075),
P(Y ∩ 𝑡 > 0.65) = 0.396 × 0.62
recognizing conditional probability (seen anywhere) (M1)
P(𝐴∩𝐵)
eg P(X|𝑡 > 0.65), P(𝐴|𝐵) = P(𝐵)
valid approach to find P(𝑡 > 0.65) (M1)

eg
, P(X and 𝑡 > 0.65) + P(Y and 𝑡 > 0.65)
correct work for P(𝑡 > 0.65) (A1)
eg 0.0107 × 0.38 + 0.396 × 0.62, 0.249595 correct substitution into conditional
probability formula A1
0.0107×0.38 0.004075
eg 0.0107×0.38+0.396×0.62, 0.249595
0.016327
P(X|𝑡 > 0.65) = 0.0163270 A1 N3
[6 marks]

(d)

[3]

Markscheme

recognizing binomial probability (M1)


𝑛 𝑟 𝑛−𝑟 10
eg 𝑋 ∼ 𝐵(𝑛, 𝑝), ( ) 𝑝 𝑞 , (0.016327)2(0.983672)8, ( )
𝑟 2
valid approach (M1)
eg P(𝑋 ≥ 2) = 1 − P(𝑋 ≤ 1), 1 − P(𝑋 < 𝑎), summing terms from 2 to
10 (accept binomcdf(10, 0.0163, 2, 10))
0.010994
P(𝑋 ≥ 2) = 0.0110 A1 N2
[3 marks]

16. 18N.2.AHL.TZ0.H_10

(a.i)

[2]

Markscheme

P(𝑋 < 60)


= P(𝑋 ≤ 59) (M1)
= 0.102 A1 [2 marks]

(a.ii)

[2]

Markscheme

standard deviation = √70 (= 8.37) (M1)A1


[2 marks]
(b.i)

[3]

Markscheme

use of midpoints (accept consistent use of 45, 55 etc.) (M1)


44.5×2+54.5×15+64.5×40+74.5×53+94.5+104.5×3+114.5×6
2+15+40+53+0+1+3+6
(M1)
8530
= 120 (= 71.1) A1
Note: If 45, 55, etc. are used consistently instead of midpoints (implied by the
answer 71.58…) award M1M1A0. [3 marks]

(b.ii)

[2]

Markscheme

13.9 (M1)A1 [2 marks]

(c)

[1]

Markscheme

valid reason given to include the examples below R1 variance is 192 which is
not close to the mean (accept not equal to) standard deviation too high (using
parts (a)(ii) and (b)(ii))
relative frequency of 𝑋 ≤ 59 is 0.142 which is too high (using part (a)(i))
Poisson would give a frequency of roughly 14 for 80 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 89
Note: Reasons which do not use values found in previous parts must be backed
up with numerical evidence. [1 mark]

(d)

[3]

Markscheme

P(𝑌 > 10) = 0.99


1 − P(𝑌 ≤ 10) = 0.99 ⇒ P(𝑌 ≤ 10) = 0.01 (M1)
attempt to solve a correct equation (M1) λ = 20.1 A1 [3 marks]
(e)

[5]

Markscheme

in 1 day, no of emails is X ~ Po(λ) in 2 days, no of emails is Y ~ Po(2λ) (A1)


P(10 on first day | 20 in 2 days) (M1)
P(𝑋=10)×P(𝑋=10)
P(𝑌=20)
(M1)
2
𝜆10 𝑒−𝜆
( )
10!
= (2𝜆)20 𝑒−2𝜆
A1
20!
𝜆20 𝑒 −2𝜆 20!
= × (10!)2 A1
220 𝜆20 𝑒 −2𝜆
20!
=
220 (10!)2
which is independent of λ AG [5 marks]

17. 18M.2.SL.TZ2.S_10

(a.i)

[2]

Markscheme

evidence of using ∑𝑝𝑖 = 1 (M1)


eg k + 0.98 + 0.01 = 1 k = 0.01 A1 N2 [2 marks]

(a.ii)

[2]

Markscheme

recognizing that 93 and 119 are symmetrical about μ (M1) eg μ is midpoint of


93 and 119 correct working to find μ A1
119 + 93
2
μ = 106 AG N0 [2 marks]

(b)

[5]

Markscheme
finding standardized value for 93 or 119 (A1)
eg z = −2.32634, z = 2.32634
correct substitution using their z value (A1)
93−106 119−106
eg 𝜎
= −2.32634, 2.32634 = 𝜎
σ = 5.58815 (A1) 0.024508 P(X < 95) = 0.0245 A2 N3 [5 marks]

(c)

[3]

Markscheme

evidence of recognizing binomial (M1) eg 10, ananaCpqn−=××and


0.024B(5,,)pnp= valid approach (M1) eg P(1),P(0)P(1)XXX≤=+= 0.976285
0.976 A1 N2 [3 marks]

(d.i)

[3]

Markscheme

recognizing new binomial probability (M1)


eg B(50, 0.976) correct substitution (A1)
eg E(X) = 50 (0.976285) 48.81425 48.8 A1 N2 [3 marks]

(d.ii)

[2]

Markscheme

valid approach (M1) eg P(X ≥ 48), 1 − P(X ≤ 47) 0.884688 0.885 A1 N2


[2 marks]

18. 18M.2.AHL.TZ1.H_4

(a)

[2]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor
differences in marking or structure.
P(L ≥ 5) = 0.910 (M1)A1
[2 marks]

(b)

[3]

Markscheme

X is the number of wolves found to be at least 5 years old recognising binomial


distribution M1 X ~ B(8, 0.910…) P(X > 6) = 1 − P(X ≤ 6) (M1) = 0.843
A1 Note: Award M1A0 for finding P(X ≥ 6). [3 marks]

19. 18M.2.AHL.TZ2.H_3

(a)

[2]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor
differences in marking or structure.
normal curve centred on 50 A1
vertical lines at 𝑥 = 42 and 𝑥 = 54, with shading in between A1
[2 marks]

(b)

[2]

Markscheme

P(42 < X < 54) (= P(− 2 < Z < 1)) (M1) = 0.819 A1 [2 marks]
(c)

[2]

Markscheme

P(μ − kσ < X < μ + kσ) = 0.5 ⇒ P(X < μ + kσ) = 0.75 (M1) k = 0.674 A1
Note: Award M1A0 for k = −0.674. [2 marks]

20. 18M.2.AHL.TZ2.H_8

(a)

[2]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor
differences in marking or structure.
np = 3.5 (A1)
p ≤ 1 ⇒ least n = 4 A1 [2 marks]

(b)

[5]

Markscheme

(1 − p)n + np(1 − p)n−1 = 0.09478 M1A1 attempt to solve above equation with
np = 3.5 (M1)
7
n = 12, p = 24 (=0.292) A1A1
Note: Do not accept n as a decimal. [5 marks]

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