HYDROLOGY & FLOOD RISK ESTIMATION (UBGMTQ-15-2) AY2023/24

Task B: Portfolio

Portfolio Element 2: Flow Analysis

Data sets
For this portfolio, you are going to be analysing river flow data from the UK National River Flow
Archive (NRFA) available at: https://nrfa.ceh.ac.uk/,

This part of the overall brief introduces you to data that you would use to assess river flows in UK
rivers, and how to assess various flow statistics and large and extreme river flows.

Tasks

7. Go to the National River Flow Archive and download the gauged daily mean flow (m3/s)
data for the River Frome at Frenchay (location number 53006). Analysis this data for the
two periods below which correspond to 30 water-years of data:
I. 1 October 1961 to 30 September 1991 (Period 1).
II. 1 October 1992 to 30 September 2022 (Period 2).

For each period:

a. Estimate the flow statistics given in Table 1 below. For the whole period, analysis the
data from 1 October 1961 to 30 September 2022.

Table 1 : Flow statistics

Flow indicator (m3/s) Whole period Period 1 Period 2
Minimum flow
Date of minimum flow
Q99
Q95
Q70
Mean flow
Q50
Q10
Q5
Q1
Maximum flow
Date of maximum flow

b. For the two periods considered (period 1 and period 2), identify over what time
period the daily mean flow is greater than the Q50 flow around the time of the
maximum flow. That is the date from when the daily mean flow first falls below the
Q50 flow “before” the maximum rate, until the date the daily mean flow next falls
below the Q50 flow “after” the maximum rate. Use the value of Q50 as given on the
National River Flow Archive page for this location.

8. For this task, you will analysis the data for three time periods. These are:
 II. Winter series, just the months of December, January and February over the period
1 October 1961 to 30 September 2022;
III. Summer series, just the months of June, July and August over the period 1
October 1961 to 30 September 2022.

The following tasks will be carried out for all three time periods.
a. Rank the daily flow data from the largest to the smallest, and work out the
empirical return period of each of these values using the Gringorten plotting
position formula.
b. For the largest 62 points, plot a graph of the log of the return period on the “x”
axis against the daily flow rate on the “y” axis. Plot all three time periods on the
same graph.
c. Assuming a linear fit between the log of the empirical return periods and the daily
flow rates, estimate the 100 and 200 year return period flow rates for all three
time periods.
d. Comment on the results of the extreme value analysis for all three time periods.

9. Write a brief paragraph (<300 words) on the following

a. Outline what the analysis carried out in this study suggests to you about how large
flow rates may have changed since data is available at this location.
b. This analysis does not account for flood “events” and assumes that all flow rates
are independent. In hydrology, would this be a valid assumption? If not why not,
and what effect would an analysis have on extreme predictions if you considered
flood events?

[NOTE: Please refer to the coursework introduction and the brief for Portfolio Element 1 – all the
submission, formatting and other requirements apply to this work too]

Marking scheme
Accuracy of analysis and presentation of flow statistics and 8 marks
large flow periods (Item 13)
Accuracy of analysis and presentation of extreme value 12 marks
analysis (Item 14)
Paragraph commenting on various aspects (Item 15) 5 marks
TOTAL 25 marks (25% of Task B)