TO: Neighbors for Samuels

FROM: Donna Victoria, Victoria Research

RE: Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District Democratic Primary
DATE: March 12, 2024

IF DON SAMUELS GETS HIS TOPLINE MESSAGE OUT EARLY – THAT HE IS A PROGRESSIVE ALTERNATIVE TO OMAR – HE
STARTS THIS RACE TIED, 41% SAMUELS TO 41% OMAR

 After testing a few positive themes from Don Samuels, without any criticism of the incumbent needed, Don Samuels
is tied with Ilhan Omar, 41% to 41%.
 Don Samuels is a proven community leader who was just 2,466 votes shy of beating her in 2022 (only 2%).
 The electorate here has continued to change and grow every year since 2018, giving fresh opportunities to talk to
new voters – but Don remains competitive no matter what the electorate; and
 MN5 Democrats resoundingly want a proven progressive who will get behind President Biden right now – and Ilhan
Omar voted against his signature Infrastructure & Jobs Act. Then she encouraged an uncommitted vote in
Minnesota’s Presidential primary and did not even bother to vote in it herself.

ILHAN OMAR REMAINS A WEAK INCUMBENT WHO IS FAILING HER CONSTITUENTS

It seems like déjà vu all over again to say that voters face a real choice between two progressive Democrats to be made here
in MN-05 and that there is huge doubt about the incumbent Ilhan Omar in the very base of her own party. It is unsurprising
that 98% of likely primary voters are familiar with Omar – but if every Democrat knows you and only 47% say they would
vote to re-elect you – that is one heck of a gap.

 Nationally known figure Ilhan Omar is testing at only a 47% vote to re-elect from all Likely Democratic Primary voters
and scarcely does better in the initial trial heat, at 49% Omar, 30% Samuels, 21% Undecided. This is virtually
unchanged from where Samuels started in June of 2022 (48% to 29%), but he has gotten started much earlier on
campaigning.

 President Joe Biden, Senator Klobuchar, Senator Smith, AG Ellison, and Governor Walz are very popular among the
MN5 Primary electorate – all of them receive job ratings of 70%+ Excellent or Good, much higher than the
congresswoman’s and indicative of a much broader Democratic outlook being popular in this district.

DON SAMUELS IS READY TO WORK TOGETHER WITH BIDEN TO PROTECT REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS, CLIMATE PROGRESS
AND TO CONTINUE A LIFETIME OF WORK ON PUBLIC SAFETY IN MINNEAPOLIS

 Don Samuels has his own immigrant success story and decades of work in Minneapolis on community safety. He
understands that voters want a better police department, but they do not want to live in a city without police. Don
Samuels is the ideal candidate to move this conversation forward, whereas Ilhan Omar continues to offer Abolish the
Police or Nothing.

 In 2022, this campaign ran out of time to broadcast Don Samuels’ message before the Primary. We are running
against an internationally recognized figure in Ilhan Omar, and we need to rebuild the same momentum we built in
only 6 weeks in 2022 to win it this time.

This memorandum reports on the findings of a poll of likely Democratic Primary election voters for August 2024, conducted in
the 5th Congressional District of Minnesota from February 20th through February 27th, 2024. Five hundred and nineteen 17-
minute interviews were conducted by trained live interviewers and online. The margin of error for a sample of this size is 4.4%
at the 95% confidence level. An additional 190 usable partial interviews were also analyzed.