EPW, Vol.59, Issue No.06, 10 Feb, 2024

LETTERS
Issn 0012-9976
Ever since the first issue in 1966,
EPW has been India’s premier journal for New Criminal Laws: of both a time-based understanding of
comment on current affairs
and research in the social sciences.
Postcolonial or Nationalist? critiquing colonialism as well as an
It succeeded Economic Weekly (1949–1965), opposition to the mere outer structures
which was launched and shepherded
by Sachin Chaudhuri,
who was also the founder-editor of EPW.
As editor for 35 years (1969–2004)
Krishna Raj
O n 21 December 2023, a new set of
criminal laws were passed by Par-
liament under the context of decolonising
of colonialism.
One of the essential attributes of colo-
nialism was that the state is a repository
gave EPW the reputation it now enjoys. colonial criminal laws. The colonial trinity of power, through which it creates sub-
Editor of the Indian Penal Code, 1860, the jects by using different mechanisms or
S Mahendra Dev Code of Criminal Procedure, 1973, and technologies of power, like the apparatus
Deputy Editor the Indian Evidence Act, 1872 have now of police or legislation. Such apparatus
Pyaralal Raghavan
been replaced with the Bharatiya Nyaya and technologies of power have the
SENIOR Assistant editors Sanhita (BNS), 2023, the Bharatiya Nagarik effect of disciplining the citizens, either
INDU K
Nachiket kulkarni Suraksha Sanhita, 2023, and the Bharatiya through coercion or through self-regu-
Assistant editor
Sakshya Adhiniyam, 2023. The govern- lating mechanisms, which lead to the
Sahba Fatima ment has stated that the main motive creation of subjects instead of citizens.
editorIAL Assistant behind such an overhaul is to break The claim of the government to have
Ankit Kawade away from the colonial past and usher avoided the outer structure of colonialism
Editorial Coordinator in a new era of nation-centric laws. by providing for a more justice-centric
Shilpa Sawant
Relying on a contrast between the and citizen-centric law only seems anti-
copy editor rationales given by the colonial powers colonial. However, the essence of a colo-
jyoti shetty
and the sharp break provided by the nial tendency to discipline and thereby
production
suneethi nair current government, the union minister create a hegemonic norm is present in the
of home affairs created a distinction new criminal legislations as well, just in a
Chief Administrative and Finance Officer
J DENNIS RAJAKUMAR between government and nation while different manner, because the anti-colonial
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Economic & Political Weekly
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EPW Research Foundation, established in 1993, conducts
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(Publishers of Economic & Political Weekly) a new phase of self-governance. This On the contrary, the idea of a nation,
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colonialism. What seems to be the case UGC-Care List.
Editor: S Mahendra Dev (Editor responsible for
selection of news under the PRB Act) with the new criminal laws is a mixture
4 february 10, 2024 vol lix no 6 EPW Economic & Political Weekly
LETTERS
between being nation-oriented and being As per the report, while many among the teacher would play the role of a
anti-colonial. Why, then, do we see cer- the males want to join the military and facilitator rather than an instructor.
tain nationalist policies having colonial police, several of those interviewed also The idea behind this is that it would
undertones? Postcolonialism refers to a aspire to enter into the field of informa- make the students more active and
methodology of espying history, not tion technology or engineering, and willing to participate in classroom
from the above but from below. It is the more than half the females interviewed activities. Moreover, teachers are ex-
stories and experiences of the marginal- wish to still pursue jobs in teaching, pected to pre-assess the knowledge of
ised that are looked at, as against the medicine, and police. the students entering their classes and
elitist narratives of knowledge. These But the big question that arises is, provide bridge courses to those who
elitists could be anyone, ranging from without the necessary skill sets, will need extra help, thereby bringing them
the colonisers to the bourgeoisie or the they be able to accomplish their dreams at par with others. And rather than
state in post-independence nations. and aspirations and contribute to the giving biannual feedback to students
The elite, majoritarian idea of a nation economy at large? Although a small after the semester examination, stu-
is at the core of the new criminal laws, proportion of those interviewed want dents will be given continuous assess-
especially BNS. The idea of a nation to join the civil services, with the grow- ment on a weekly and fortnightly
and, consequently, the ideology of what ing competition and dearth of seats in basis, thereby assuring that no child
should be a nation is being construed this sector, it appears to be a challeng- gets left behind.
by constructing the “other” in contrast ing bridge to cross. However, all is not These efforts would not only enable
to the self (the elite and the majoritarian doom and gloom with regard to youth India to partake in international tests
privileged society). So, when legislation and its aspirations. This is because, like the Programme for International
punishes someone on the basis of with the introduction of the National Student Assessment but would also
“deshdroh,” it is referring to the “self” Education Policy (NEP) 2020, the school- produce a sturdy young population
idea of nation as opposed to the other’s ing and education system of the coun- who would not only make informed
idea of nation. Creating a class of crimi- try is undergoing an overhaul, wherein decisions but would also contribute to
nals based on an idea of the nation, more emphasis is being given to voca- the national and global economy in a
which is further grounded in internal tional learning and providing hands- significant way.
inclusions and exclusions, is by no on training in schools rather than just Pournamy
This PDF was uploade To Telegram channel_https://t.me/Magazines_8890050582(send Me Message telegram ya WhatsApp This number 8890050582)
stretch of the imagination “postcolonial” rote learning. Bengaluru
in its truest meaning. Furthermore, besides learning multi-
There are certain discursive rules ple languages, students are also expected
within the discourse of nation or na- to diversify their skill sets by learning Corrigendum
tionhood that decide inclusion and to code and artificial intelligence, and
In the article, “Rebranding Bengaluru:
exclusion. In times when the concept of engage in proactive research at the Embracing Eco-socialism to Unveil the
rights is closely connected to the defini- school level itself, rather than waiting City’s Soul” by Debswapan Chatterjee,
tion of nation, the question of whether to reach university. Moreover, rather Prakhar Borgaonkar, and Roopa Patavardhan
these new, allegedly “postcolonial” laws than solely looking to the West, India is (EPW, 6 January 2024), “CHRIST, Bengaluru”
are merely anticolonial or they are based now actively looking to learn from the in the authors’ bio-note should have read
as “CHRIST (Deemed to be University),
on the current discourse of nationalism, East; this is especially so with regard
Bengaluru.”
still looms large. to the Singapore model of education.
The error has been corrected on the EPW
Akshra Mehla The reason why the Singaporean in- website.
Pune structional system has gained global
attention is because, at an early stage,
ASER and Youth Aspirations the teaching in classrooms is done in
accordance with the goals and ambi- Erratum
A s the dividend of the population

which comprises young adults is
tions of the students. In the article, “How X Is Undermining
While earlier in India, teaching focused Journalistic Practice in India” by Kabir
Upmanyu and Sneha Gore Mehendale
increasing, the Annual Status of Education on finishing the curricula and the trans- (EPW, 3 February 2024), the authors’
Report (ASER) (Rural) 2023 released by mission and provision of factual knowl- bio-note should have read as “Kabir
Pratham is pivotal in understanding edge leading to a system of rote learn- Upmanyu (kabir.upmanyu@scmc.edu.in)
how the aspirations of youth are not ing, now with the new NEP, there will be teaches at the Symbiosis Centre for Media
necessarily matching their skill sets. a lot more drills inculcated in the peda- and Communication and Sneha Gore
Mehendale (sneha.mehendale@simc.edu)
This is especially the case with regard gogy. In this model, classrooms are teaches at the Symbiosis Institute of Media
to reading, writing, arithmetic, and dig- not to be dominated by monologue and and Communication, Symbiosis International
ital skills. The report surveyed 34,745 impartation of knowledge from the (Deemed University), Pune.”
rural youth across 26 states, ranging in teachers’ end but must have proactive The error has been corrected on the EPW website.
the age bracket of 14–18 years. discussions with the students, wherein The error is regretted—Ed.
Economic & Political Weekly EPW february
june 17, 2023
10, 2024
vol lViii
vol no
lix 24
no 6 5
LETTERS
6 february
june 17,10,
2023
2024vol
vol
lViii
lixno
no24
6 EPW Economic & Political Weekly
COMMENT
Coaching Culture Conundrum

The new coaching guidelines make the grey shadow education market legal.
S Srinivasa Rao writes:
T
he Guidelines for Regulation of Coaching Center issued for an enriching childhood and youthhood. A happy and con-
by the Ministry of Education, Government of India (GoI), tented child is indeed a hallmark of a happy society and nation.
in January 2024, is first in many ways. This is the first If much of the childhoods are caught up in preparing for
time the GoI recognises and legalises the “coaching culture,” entrance examinations, which at times start as early as Class 6,
which the National Education Policy (NEP) 2020 acknowledges in the form of what is called “techno-schools,” they push children
as having harmful impacts in its Para 4.36. The NEP 2020 from the comforts of home and put them through long days of
squarely puts the blame on the “nature of secondary school exams, memorising and taking examinations at coaching institutes
including board exams and entrance exams” for such harmful which disguise as schools, as in the case of states like Rajasthan,
coaching cultures. It therefore recommends reforms in the current Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, etc. Usually, these schools are
pattern of the examination system to “eliminate the need for referred to as “dummy” schools, a term used to denote schools
undertaking coaching.” Given this stress in the NEP 2020, one on paper. Once a child is registered in such a dummy school,
expected more proactive reforms in the arena of secondary most of their time is spent in coaching for entrance examina-
school examinations as well as entrance requirements for get- tions that are scheduled five to seven years down the line. What
ting into higher education institutions, but what we see surpris- is strange is that the guidelines do acknowledge the presence of
ingly is a set of steps to legalise the very coaching culture that it such dummy schools in Para 10.1.ii but are silent as to what to do
derides as the cause of the malaise by granting recognition to to regulate, abolish and eliminate such illegal practices.
coaching centres, by suggesting minimum standards to run a Another contradiction which catches the eye of any critical
coaching institute. reader is what the guidelines stress as the root of the problem
These guidelines suggest that the coaching culture is irreversible get reinforced through regulatory stipulations. For example, in
and that it will continue unabated, but with a few regulatory the first few paras, the document recognises the fact that the
measures. They, thereby, let the “coaching” or “shadow” educa- number of unregulated coaching institutions has grown in the
tion institutions continue to flourish, now with formal recogni- absence of any clearly laid-down policy, and this has led to undue
tion from the government. What existed as an unregulated and pressure on children resulting in an increase in incidents of self-
unrecognised multimillion educational market is now formal- harm or suicide, propelling a large number of students to lose
ised as a legal entity. Previously, coaching institutes were regis- their precious lives. In just one coaching hub of dummy or shadow
tered with the commercial taxes department, but now they will schooling like Kota, the number of students who arrive in the
possibly be given recognition by the department of education, city, for realising their dream of getting into an elite institution
and this is the only departure the guidelines hint at. of engineering or medicine, by shunning formal school educa-
The document released by the Ministry of Education is a tion in schools, is estimated to be of the order of 2,50,000 every
strange set of contradictions too. While it rightly points out year. If we take this culture which spreads to other small cities
what is wrong with the coaching culture, it gets entrapped by and towns, the number of students undergoing these coaching
the same culture, which propagates coaching as a “common classes runs into several millions.
sense” among parents and children for success in entrance One needs to understand why these coaching institutes
examinations to engineering, medical and other professional flourish at the cost of belittling the formal structures of school-
examinations (such as Joint Entrance Examination [JEE], ing is the fact that the entrance examinations are highly com-
National Eligibility Entrance Test [NEET], Common Admission petitive. For instance, in 2023, more than 1.1 million students
Test [CAT], etc), as well as entrance into the general higher edu- competed in JEE examination for 41,339 seats in government-
cation institutions (through Common University Entrance Test run Indian Institutes of Technology and National Institutes
[CUET]). This common sense leads parents to forego precious of Technology and more than 2.24 million competed in NEET
childhoods and experiences of senior secondary school educa- for 56,283 seats available in government medical colleges.
tion. They place their children in controlled environments of Hyderabad, Vijayawada, Visakhapatnam, Chennai, and Delhi
coaching institutes, isolating the child from their peers, family have witnessed the emergence of coaching giants, which
and other social environments, which are necessary ingredients control the entrance exam outcomes and market. Even more
8 FEBRuary 10, 2024 vol lix no 6 EPW Economic & Political Weekly
COMMENT
interesting is the fact that investments pour into these coach- activities or peer socialisation, which medical science says are
ing institutions from venture capitalists not just from India but central to making a healthy individual.
from abroad too. Many more issues mentioned in the guidelines require serious
At the core of the problem of suicides of students, undergoing debate and discussion among the stakeholders—parents, children,
coaching in cities like Kota, Vijayawada and Hyderabad, is the teachers, coaching institutions, state policymakers and educa-
lack of social life because the day starts very early for them and ends tionists. Without such an engaging discussion, one may get the
very late into the night, leaving no breathing space. The guide- impression that these guidelines are a mere lip service rather
lines do not seem to address this issue. For example, Paras 7.i.b than any robust and sincere effort to address the grey area of
and 10.1.ii say that the classes in coaching institutes shall not be shadow education and its harmful impacts on the students and
conducted during school hours and at the same time allow the education system in India.
these institutes to run classes up to 5 hours after school hours.
This confines the student in the classroom set up for 13 hours more S Srinivasa Rao (srinivasarao@mahindrauniversity.edu.in) is with the
or less continuously, leaving out no time for self-study, sporting Indira Mahindra School of Education, Mahindra University, Hyderabad.
Economic & Political Weekly EPW FEBRuary 10, 2024 vol lix no 6 9
FEBRUARY 10, 2024
Direct Tax Collections Touch a 15-year High

While the collections have increased, the sharp corporate tax cuts significantly dent the resource
mobilisation potential.
A
recent report of the Central Board of Direct Taxes This makes it amply clear that the cut in corporate tax rates has
shows that the ratio of net direct taxes to gross domestic seriously dented the direct tax base without having any significant
product (GDP) at current market prices has touched positive impact on corporate investments, which remains subdued.
6.11% in 2022–23, a 15-year high. However, this is still margin- What is more striking is that the substantial increase in
ally lower than the peak net direct tax to GDP ratio of 6.3% income tax collection in recent years has been goaded both by
reached in 2007–08. In fact, the net direct tax to GDP ratio has the increase in personal income tax rates and the significant ex-
steadily decelerated by around 1.5 percentage points during the tension of its tax base. Personal income tax rates for the highest
decade after the global financial crisis to reach a low of 4.78% slab of income earners have steadily gone up from 33.99% in
during the pandemic. So, it is rather surprising that the net 2015 to 35.54% in 2017, then to 35.88% in 2017 and further to
direct taxes to GDP ratio have suddenly bounced back closer to 42.74% in 2020.
the previous peaks in the last two years. Moreover, the increase in personal income tax rates has been
One reason why the net direct tax to GDP ratio has bounced accompanied by a significant exemption for the relatively less
back is that the buoyancy of the direct taxes has suddenly shot affluent and a substantial increase for the more well-heeled.
up during the post-covid-19 recovery. It suddenly surged to The less affluent were exempted by raising the minimum income
2.52 in 2021–22, which is even higher than at the peak of the level with zero income tax liability from `2.2 lakh in 2013–14 to
global boom, as collections grew by almost half. And the buoy- `7 lakh now. However, this exclusion of the lower-income
ancy has continued, albeit in a more limited way. Consequently, groups from the income tax net was accompanied by substantial
the share of direct taxes in the total tax collections, which efforts to increase the more affluent groups.
dipped from a peak of around 60% in 2009–10 to below half at Thus, we find that between the 10 years from 2013–14 and
the time of the pandemic, has now re-emerged as the dominant 2022–23, the number of income tax returns filed more than dou-
direct tax segment with a 55% share. bled from 3.6 crore to 7.5 crore and the number of income tax
However, it is not that all segments of the direct taxes have payers (either filing returns or those who paid tax deduction at
moved in tandem. Numbers indicate that the pickup in direct taxes source) rose from 5 crore to 9 crore, that is, by around three-
has been mainly fuelled by the steady resilience of the personal in- fourths. This three-pronged strategy of raising income tax rates,
come taxes since 2016–17. The growth of personal income taxes while extending the tax base of higher-income groups and
has surged up and averaged 16.4% per annum in the last six years, simultaneously excluding the less affluent, seems to have paid
which is more than one-third faster than the 11.9% growth clocked rich dividends and pushed up income tax collections even while
by corporate income tax, the other major segment of direct taxes. the corporate tax collections floundered after the rate cuts.
The slower growth of corporate tax collections has shrunk its Another important reason for the direct tax gains has been
share in the total direct tax collections from a high of around the improved efficiency in collections. Trends show that the
two-thirds to just half over the last 12 years. This is despite the share of taxpayers who paid tax deductions at source has gone
sharp cuts in corporate tax rates from 30% and 25% (for new up from just around a quarter in 2004–05 to more than 40%,
manufacturing firms) to 22% and 15%, respectively, in Septem- now thus substantially reducing the leakages from the tax
ber 2019. Certainly, the Laffer curve, which proposes that a re- system. Similarly, on the positive side, these large gains on the
duction in tax rates can increase nominal tax revenues, seems to direct tax front have been achieved by reducing the cost of tax
have not worked. In fact, the growth of corporate taxes slowed collections from a high 1.36% of the total direct tax revenues at
down to 9.4% in the last four years after the rate cuts and the the turn of the century to just 0.51% now.
share of corporate taxes in the total direct taxes shrunk by almost However, a major lacuna is that the direct tax collections re-
10 percentage points from 58.3% to 49.6% during the period. main heavily concentrated in a few states. The top seven states,
COMMENT
including Maharashtra, Delhi, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, All this makes it amply clear that only a significant extension
Andhra Pradesh, and West Bengal, accounted for four-fifths of of the corporate tax base, including through its wider geograph-
the direct tax collection in 2022–23. Trends also show that ical dispersion and additional resource mobilisation through
Karnataka, Gujarat, and Maharashtra together accounted for higher corporate tax rates, can help sustain the current momen-
more than half the direct tax increases in the last five years. tum on the direct tax front.
8 FEBRuary 10, 2024 vol lix no 6 EPW Economic & Political Weekly
COMMENT
From 25 Years Ago policies were tantamount to a gulag of a spe- and intellectuals and public figures such as
cial kind that literally involved job liquidation Mme Mitterrand and many other prominent po-
to the tune of millions. The name of the game litical, scientific and cultural figures from the
is restructuring. Americas and elsewhere. The architects of this
The Davos Forum, militant propagandist of gathering were explicit as to its purpose: to en-
Vol XXXIV, No 6 FEBRUARY 6, 1999 transnational capital, was engineered to ensure sure maximum participation in the free ex-
Havana versus Davos: the perpetuation and consolidation of the univ- change of ideas. A goal that was consummated.
The Unbridgeable Chasm ers concentrationaire of Big Capital, with the It was the antithesis of the pense unique for
pensee unique its dominant totalitarian trait. widely divergent opinions were expressed.
Frederic F Clairmont Understandably, its deliberations received world Many corporate media enterprises were invited
Two major world economic conferences strad- coverage in the corporate media in contrast to but not all came. The World Bank spokesman
dling the ambiguous theme of globalisation Havana. Was this not to be expected inasmuch aired his views, nor was he boiled in oil for so
occurred about the same time. The first, in as Big Capital and its mediatic protuberances doing. Nothing could have surpassed the spirit
Havana, by the Association of Economists of are cesspools that hardly require publicity? Sig- of generosity of the conference than the courte-
Latin America and the Caribbean; the second, nificantly, George Soros, Milton Friedman and ous public exchange in the plenary between
Thisby
PDFthewas
world’s biggest
uploade To capitalists and their po- John Kenneth Galbraith and others were
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litical hangers-on in the elite Swiss Alpine re- ed to Davos but chose to stay away. world, as an Indian delegate observed, could
sort of Davos. That however was where the The first thing that struck the participants in ever have financed and undertaken this project
similarity ended. The first ruthlessly analysed the Havana conference was the beauty of the sur- on such a vast scale, and that in a nation that
the ravages of the economic, cultural, political roundings. The hotel and its huge complex, one still labels itself third world? […]
and social policies of neo-liberalism, pressed of the most stunning in the Americas, included Here was a head of state raising questions,
so relentlessly by the satellite trinity of trans- the convention centre where the plenary was assimilating the new knowledge, venturing his
national capital and the US caste oligarchy: held – a source of enormous pride, financed, observations forcefully but never dogmatical-
the World Bank, IMF and WTO. Its logo is un- built, owned and managed by Cubans. The num- ly. His analysis was derived from the stagger-
inhibited market freedom of capital, liquida- bers attending the meeting were between 550 ing diversity of Cuba’s revolutionary experi-
tion of the nation-state, and the wholesale and 600. Simultaneous interpretation in five lan- ence over the last 40 years, nourished by his
obliteration of the democratic institutions that guages (including Chinese) was provided. Many own extensive reading, discussions and medi-
partnered it over the last two centuries. These of them were economists, engineers and workers tations on international economic relations.
COMMENT
From 50 Years Ago leaders inside the Tamil Nadu Congress Com- His disenchantment with Gandhi is attri-
mittee (between 1919 and 1936) lends credence buted to the Cheranmahadevi incident. An
to this theory. In the late twenties, at the Karai- ashram in Cheranmahadevi named after
kudi session of the TNCC, C. Rajagopalachari, a Gandhi practised discrimination against
Vaishnavite Brahmin, backed his principal fac- non-Brahmins, especially the Harijan children.
Vol IX, No 6 FEBRUARY 6, 1974 tional rival Satyamurti, a Shaivite Brahmin, to Naicker protested to Gandhi who pleaded his
Ramaswami Naicker and the defeat Muthuranga Mudaliar, a non-Brahmin helplessness in the matter but would not dis-
Dravidian Movement opponent. Voting cut across factional interests own the ashram. Naicker defeated a Brahmin
and conformed to caste configurations. rival for TNCC presidentship later but before
Mohan Ram Naicker’s own case underscores the conflict. he could assume office, a Brahmin leader
The Brahmin/non-Brahmin conflict in Madras Naicker was a religious mendicant and re- successfully moved a no-confidence motion
Presidency extended to the Congress party too. turned to his home town, Erode, in 1919, a con- against him.
This was the corollary to a contradictory situa- vinced anti-Brahmin determined to fight the In 1925, after the Conjeevaram session of
tion. Anti-Brahmin sentiment was strident in exploitation of the masses. His anti-Brahmin- the TNCC, Naicker left the Congress to found
the Tamil-speaking districts and this continues ism should have led Naicker into the Justice the Self-Respect Movement, which was one of
to this day. There was a series of bitter struggles Party but he joined the Congress instead. He social protest against Brahminism. It pro-
for non-Brahmin control of the Congress organi- earned two prison terms for his participation in fessed a vague brand of atheistic rationalism
sation in the Tamil region. The Justice Party the non-co-operation movement in 1920. He be- and therefore could not rally all sections of the
leaders thought the Congress was the Brahmin came the secretary of the TNCC and incurred educated non-Brahmins who were politically
instrument of the future when the British pulled the wrath of its Brahmin leaders by joining the with the Justice Party. But the response to the
out, to exploit the non-Brahmins as before. The Vaikom satyagraha for Harijan temple entry in movement was overwhelming from the lower
conflict between Brahmin and non-Brahmin neighbouring Travancore state. castes, especially the Harijans.
COMMENTARY
recession. Fundamentally, the underlying

The 2020 Recession weakness of the global economy that was
built over the years made it vulnerable to
Was COVID-19 the Cause? any shock to trigger a downturn. Thus,
the recession was waiting to happen by
2020 and the expected upcoming crisis is
Eri Ikeda path-dependent.
In fact, the global economy has been
The global economy experienced The global economy experienced one of the exposed to repeated and continuous
worst recessions in history in 2020.1 weaknesses, including the euro debt crisis
one of the worst recessions in 2020,
T
here appears to be a general con- during 2012−15 and the global slow-
and there is a growing concern
sensus that while the economy was down in 2015−16 and 2018, before the
that another recession is in good shape, a random external COVID-19 crisis started. These weaknesses
impending. While it is widely shock (which could include demand, are also associated with the long business
understood that the 2020 recession supply, financial and health shocks, to cycle downturn that drives suppression
name a few) caused a global downturn. of any expansion of economic activity and
was caused by a random external
For instance, James Brian Bullard, former aggravation of contractionary activity.
shock, this article argues that the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of This has been manifested by the contin-
recession was due, irrespective of St Louis, said this about the recession, uous expansionary monetary and fiscal
the COVID-19 pandemic. It was “the economy is facing a huge shock to countercyclical policies that were started
the system over the near term, but it will by the major advanced economies, and
structural and endogenous to the
then bounce back strong after worst of followed by China and other developing
system. The underlying weakness the outbreak passes,” and the Reserve countries as the crisis and recession
of the global economy was built Bank of India’s former Governor Raghuram deepened with COVID-19 and its aftermath.
over the years, making it Rajan said that “the key is to ensure a To forward this perspective, the article
temporary shock does not turn into includes a review of the relevant litera-
vulnerable to any shock to trigger
a more permanent shock” (Cox 2020; ture regarding the cause of the recession.
a downturn.
This It had
PDF was uploade also reached
To Telegram channel_https://t.me/Magazines_8890050582(send Me Message telegram ya WhatsApp This number 8890050582)
India Today 2020). Such a consensus Subsequently, it examines the movements
the tipping point from the cyclical means that the recession in 2020 was a of key macroeconomic variables and eco-
point of view, with the passing of sudden event, and not foreseen. nomic indicators to highlight the weak-
As the economies opened up after the ness building in the global economy since
11 years since the previous
COVID-19 pandemic and resumed halted the 2007–09 crisis, and the signals for
2007−09 global recession. activities in 2021, the global economy was recession. Particular attention has been
expected to experience a strong rebound paid to large economies such as the Unit-
of 6% growth (IMF 2022).2 However, then ed States (US) and China that emanate
came the concern about the approaching the cyclical impulse into the global econ-
recession again in 2023−24, mainly due omy. Further, the article presents the ex-
to a monetary tightening in the advanced istence of recurrent ruptures in the eco-
economies, slowdown in China, and the nomic system and discusses how an en-
geopolitical and energy crises. This poses dogenous force develops a condition for
the question: Will another shock hit the economic expansion and contraction, that
global economy, even though the weak- is, recession, and these are inevitable in a
ness in the global economy and its cause certain observed duration. The article
is apparent? If so, what shock and when concludes by summarising the key find-
will it cause the recession? Yet, as the ings and discussing the implications.
nature of the shock is random and exoge-
nous, answering these questions be- Cause of Recession
comes an almost impossible task. The majority of economists3 view the
This article, therefore, attempts to pre- cause of the economic and financial reces-
sent an alternative perspective to under- sion and crisis as a shock. A shock induces
stand the recession in 2020 and the up- a temporal deviation, that is, fluctuation
coming one, as these are more structural in an economic system that is in the
and endogenous to the capitalist system, equilibrium condition (Knoop 2010).
Eri Ikeda (ikedaeri@iitd.ac.in) teaches at the that is, the operation of the business cycles. The nature of shock is claimed to be
Department of Management Studies, Indian It argues that the COVID-19 shock per se random, unanticipated, and unforeseen,
Institute of Technology Delhi.
cannot be the sole cause of the global thus exogenous to the economic system
Economic & Political Weekly EPW FEBRUARY 10, 2024 vol lIX no 6 15
COMMENTARY
(Lucas 1975). The type of shocks identi- continued growth, a strong job market, and to see if the economy emanated signals
fied and subsequent propagation and infl ation near 2 percent. (Powell 2019) that the recession was approaching
transmission mechanism vary across For recovery, the economy disturbed with/without the COVID-19 shock.
studies, though these are typically seen by a shock is viewed as restoring the
as a shock in technology, supply, mone- equilibrium immediately or with short GDP: For the analysis of the economy,
tary variables (money supply or interest lags due to rational or adaptive expecta- considerable attention is always paid to
rates), and demand (Ball et al 1988; tions (Friedman 1957; Lucas 1975). For the GDP and its growth rate as the representa-
Friedman and Schwartz 1975; Kydland COVID-19-related downturn, the leading tion of aggregate economic activities.
and Prescott 1982).4 economic and monetary institutions, such Table 1 presents the growth rates of the
In the case of COVID-19, the majority as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) US, China, and the world. First, for the
of economists agree that a shock had and the US Federal Reserve, expected that US, China, and the world, the average
certainly hit the global economy as the the economic recovery from COVID-19 growth in the 2010s before COVID-19 was
pandemic was said to be unexpected. would not be immediate but would con- lower than that of the 2000s and the
There, however, appears to be no concrete tinue till the end of 2021 (Bull 2020; IMF average growth since the 1960s. The
consensus as to exactly what type of 2020; Lauren and Politi 2020). This is decline in China was the most signifi-
shock, and in what channel, had caused typically called a U-shape recovery, rec- cant, which recorded a 5% decline. For
the global downturn. Yet, by observing ognising the period of recovery taking a both China and the world, the growth
the symptoms,5 the perceived shocks longer duration. was almost half in the 2010s. This decline
were classified into mainly supply and in China had a stronger bearing on the
demand shocks. The former is seen in Economic Conditions global economy before COVID-19 because
impacting the production and labour pre-COVID-19 China’s global share of the GDP had in-
supply, while the latter is the disruption This section examines the economic con- creased from 5% on average to 14% on
in demand, especially for some sectors ditions before the COVID-19 outbreak to average since 2010.
like tourism and oil (Arezki and Nguyen investigate whether fragility has been Second, the growth trend of the US
2020; Gopinath 2020; OECD 2020; Smith building up in the global economy. It and the world has been downward since
2020). Others, such as Federal Reserve’s implies the existence of path dependen- the 1960s. Relative to the 1960s, the
former Chairman Ben S Bernanke, said cy (Robinson 1974). It selects two real average growth in the 2010s was -3%
that COVID-19 is closer to a natural disas- variables of gross domestic product (GDP) and -3.9% for the US and the world,
ter than directly associated with the eco- and industrial production, as it has been respectively. On the other hand, China’s
nomic factor (Belvedere 2020). widely known that the stock market, growth peak was in the 2000s as the
Until the shock occurs, the economy is especially the equity market, for major economy grew in lower-income to upper-
seen as expanding in a stable manner, economies, has been extending its gain in middle-income countries over the years.
and there is no provision to distinguish a steady manner, along with the expanded Yet, their growth stalled in the next
expansion from the weakness of the quantitative easing by the major central decades. These trends suggest that the
economy. In this regard, the underlying banks in advanced economies (MacKenzie global economy as a whole has been
economic weakness is typically over- 2017). There has been a clear decoupling facing long-term downward pressure on
looked, along with the direct cause of a between the real and financial sectors, growth, regardless of the relative strength
random shock; thus, predicting the re- and the correlation between the quarterly of the developing countries. This also
cession has become almost impossible GDP growth and MSCI (Morgan Stanley means that any recovery could be shorter
(see, for example, for the record of pre- Capital International) index growth for and weaker if fundamental causes are
diction, Loungani 2019).6 For instance, the Group of Seven (G7) in the period of not addressed. Thus, the recovery from
this is evident in the speech by Federal the first fiscal quarter (Q1) of 2010 and COVID-19 depends not only on the re-
Reserve’s current Chair Jerome H Powell the fourth fiscal quarter (Q4) of 2019 is sumption of the economic activities
delivered on 25 November 2019, three merely 0.05.7 Along with this, two indi- that have been halted but also heavily
months before the recession: cators of leading economic indicators on the expansionary government inter-
We have heard two messages loud and clear. and yield inversions are also examined vention on both monetary and fiscal
First, as this expansion continues into its Table 1: Period Average Growth of GDP for sides. While the fundamental issues of
11th year—the longest in US history—eco- the US, China and the World, 1960s−2010s the economy have not been resolved
nomic conditions are generally good. Second, Decade US China World
and as the monetary policy has been
the benefits of the long expansion are only 1960s 4.66 3.37 5.34
now reaching many communities, and there tightening in the US and the rest of the
1970s 3.19 7.37 4.03
is plenty of room to build on the impressive world, the recession would be more
1980s 3.12 9.74 3.08
gains achieved so far … For example, more likely to occur.
than a decade of steady advances has pushed 1990s 3.23 9.99 2.84
the jobless rate near a 50-year low, where 2000s 1.92 10.35 2.99
it has remained for well over a year … For- 2010s 1.59 5.17 1.38 Industrial production: The drivers of
tunately, the outlook for further progress is Average 2.99 8.07 3.47 the global economy are manufacturing
good: Forecasters are generally predicting Source: World Bank, author’s calculation. activities (Kaldor 1967; Ikeda 2019). As
16 FEBRUARY 10, 2024 vol lIX no 6 EPW Economic & Political Weekly
COMMENTARY
China has become the world’s biggest Figure 1: Accumulated Profit Growth Rate of China, August 2012–March 2020
manufacturing hub since 2009, surpass- 40
ing the share of the US as manufacturer, 8
China’s productive activities have a strong

bearing on the global economy. The 20
Percentage growth
period average of industrial production
for the major manufacturing economies,
that is, China, the US, Japan, and Germany 0
between 2000–09 and 2010–20 in Table 2
shows a marginal growth of the industrial
production for the US, Japan, and Germa- -20
ny in the 2010s relative to the previous
decade. China, on the other hand, record-
ed approximately 8.6% growth in produc- -40
2/2012
6/2012
10/2012
3/2013
7/2013
11/2013
4/2014
8/2014
12/2014
5/2015
9/2015
2/2016
6/2016
10/2016
3/2017
7/2017
11/207
4/2018
8/2018
12/2018
5/2019
9/2019
2/2020
6/2020
10/2020
tion during the 2010s but a significant
decline of about 7% in comparison to the
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, China (data for some months is missing from the source).
previous decade. In addition, between
2015 and 2019, China’s industrial produc- Figure 2: Leading Indicator for Selected Economies, January 2010−January 2020
tion stagnated, with a fluctuation in the 102
narrow band (4.4%–8.5%), before the
collapse associated with the stalling of 101
production activities due to COVID-19.
The fact that the Chinese industrial pro- 100
duction collapsed to -13.5% in the wake
of the COVID-19 outbreak, and the subse- 99
quent disruption of the global supply
chain was observed, confirms the lead- 98
ing role of China in global economic ac-
tivities and its weakness.
97
What also needs to be highlighted is
2010–01
2010–06
2010–11
2011–04
2011–09
2012–02
2012–07
2012–12
2013–05
2013–10
2014–03
2014–08
2015–01
2015–06
2015–11
2016–04
2016–09
2017–02
2017–07
2017–12
2018–05
2018–10
2019–03
2019–08
2020–01
that the decline in industrial production
has been associated with weakness in the
Contraction China G7
profit growth of Chinese enterprises after
Source: OECD.
the recovery from the 2007–09 crisis as
Figure 1 shows. The profit growth in recover during the COVID-19 recession, yet, February 2018 onwards. These weak-
China had dipped under zero three times since July 2022, it dropped once again. nesses are associated with the euro debt
before the COVID-19 outbreak: in 2012, crisis between 2012 and 2015 and the
between 2014 and 2015, and Q1 of 2019 Leading indicators: The leading eco- mini-recession in 2015–16. This is fre-
onwards. These are the periods when the nomic indicator captures the up-to-date quent when compared to the period be-
global economy experienced weaknesses, economic condition and indicates the tween 2002 and 2009 (the previous cy-
that is, the euro crisis and the global mini- future direction in the short term. It is cle), which had no incident of the lead-
recession. As China’s economic growth typically a composite of selected macro- ing index dipping below 100.
is driven by industrial activities, the economic variables.9 One of the widely Second, before 2020, the indicator of
decline in industrial profit indicates the used indicators by the OECD, presented China and G7 showed that China had
fundamental weakness in China, and in Figure 2, suggests that the weakness of already fallen into the contractionary
ultimately the global economy, which also the global economy was already sig- phase, that is, below 100, in January 2018,
reflects the decline in the global demand nalled long before the COVID-19 outbreak. followed by G7 in November 2018. Its
for Chinese goods. Profits had started to First, since the recovery of the 2007–09 continuous decline further towards 2020,
Table 2: Period Average of Industrial crisis, the leading indicator of China and which is a lower level than the previous
Production—Q1 2001−Q1 2020 G710 had gone into the territories of low in 2016, is evident from Figure 2. In
Germany United States China Japan below 100 that indicate the periods of the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak, in
2000–09 0.23 -0.07 14.55 -0.04 contraction in economy.11 Benchmarking February 2020, the Chinese indicator
2010–20 0.39 0.43 8.65 0.04 China, these are the periods between recorded a sharp fall of 13% from the
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, China* (NBS);
Author’s calculation. July−September 2010, September 2011− previous month. In fact, many econo-
*: http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn September 2012, September 2014– mists started to discuss the possibility of
=A01. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD). March 2015, July 2015–June 2016, and a recession only in late February or
COMMENTARY
March 2020, yet the recorded collapse of Figure 3: Yield Spread (10 Year minus 3 Months’ Interest Rates) in the US
the indicator in February was merely 4
the aggravation of the existing weak-
ness that was bound to happen. 3
Third, the strengths or weaknesses that
Percentage
China experiences appear to impact the 2
Percentage
rest of the world. The leading indicator
shows the early movement of China for a 1
couple of months to a year as relative
to other major economies, including the 0
US, Europe, and Japan. As the leading
indicator points, the Chinese economy has -1
already been suffering in 2015−16 and
2000-01
2002-01
2004-01
2006-01
2008-01
2010-01
2012-01
2014-01
2016-01
2018-01
2020-01
2000–01
2004–01
2006–01
2008–01
2020–01
2002–01
2010–01
2016–01
2014–01
2018–01
2012–01
2017 onwards, with the decline in indus-
trial profit, industrial production, and
increasing debt. As of March 2023, the Recession
Recession Difference
Difference
Source: US Federal Reserve System; NBER.
level of the leading indicator for both
China and G7 is around 99. It appears that US federal funds rate continued to rise economy before the COVID-19 recession
the bottom has been reached and recovery from the beginning of 2016 (0.34%) to occurred. In such a weak condition, any
has started; yet, the level suggests the July 2019 (2.4%), according to the Federal shock could trigger the downturn as it
general weakness of the global economy. Reserve Economic Data (FRED). As the was simply waiting to happen. If the
COVID-19 recession started, the rate fell economy is strong, such a shock might
Yield inversion: Yield inversion between back to 0.05% in April 2020 and moved cause some dips in the economy, but it
the short- and the long-term rate is one of in a narrow range until February 2022, will respond with resilience. In this re-
the widely used, and considered accu- but it started to rise sharply after that in gard, an additional but fundamental factor
rate, indicators for predicting a recession. order to tame the rapidly increasing reces- is the endogenous factor of the capital-
In general, when the former becomes sion, mainly due to geopolitical reasons. ist system. The historical record of the
higher than the latter, it is seen as a signal Currently, the inflation is at a 40-year recession by the US and the global econo-
of an upcoming recession as it suggests high in the US and interest rates are at a my, that is, global cycles, shows that the
that the increase in short-term borrowing 15-year high, which is regarded as one of expansions and contractions in the
is due to a shortage of funds in business the factors that further triggered the cri- economies are recurrent phenomena
(Benzoni et al 2018). It is widely accepted sis in 2023 because the borrowing cost is (Table 1).12 This recurrence is associated
that the spread of the yield between soaring at a fast speed after the long with the endogenous force in the capi-
10-year and 3-month US Treasury Bills is hangover of the prolonging low interest talist system that causes the recession at
showing a stronger predictive power rates in the advanced economies. recurrent but not regular intervals.
(Bauer and Mertens 2018). As Figure 3 The timing of the recession varies
shows, between 2000 and 2020, the US Endogenous Cyclical Force across each cycle, yet, most of the cycles
National Bureau of Economic Research The natural state of the economy is per- occur every 7 to 11 years. This is the du-
(NBER) recorded two recessions (that is, ceived as unstable. We have shown the ration of the Juglar Cycle (Schumpeter
March 2001–November 2001 and Decem- fundamental weakness in the global 1939). The average cycle duration for the
ber 2007–June 2009), and each time
inversion occurred 8–16 months before.
For this time, after the 2007–09 crisis,
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COMMENTARY
US is 7.5 years, and for the global economy, If a recession was to occur in 2023–24, of growth. The 2010s particularly re-
13
it is nine years. Currently, the US has it would have been a so-called double- corded the lowest period of growth for
declared that the economy is in expansion dip recession, although the majority of the US and the world and the second
as the recession ended in February 2020. the economists predict a V- or U-shaped lowest for China since the 1960s, suggest-
The previous cycle started with the expan- recovery from the COVID-19 recession. ing that the global economic recovery had
sion in 2009 when the 2007−09 crisis Since the recovery has been fragile and been weak or almost non-existent. Second,
was over, and the year 2020 marked the fundamental weakness in the economy industrial production in the industrial
11th year since then, and 13th year since is continuing, there is a higher chance of economies, particularly in China, had
the beginning of the previous recession getting into another recession in a short been weakening sharply. In comparison
of 2007. This means that the expansion period, as an extension from the previous to the period of the 2000s, the growth of
was not only approaching the typical cy- cycles because it could be seen that the industrial production in the 2010s had
clical duration but also an excess of the downswing has not been fully completed. fallen by 7%. In 2015, the level of indus-
average duration of the cycles since 1975 This is particularly associated with the trial production marked the lowest point
(3.5 excess years for the US and two excess operation of long business cycles, which of the previous 2007−09 crisis. Third,
years for the global cycle). Thus, the prob- conditions the movements of the shorter the leading indicator showed that the
ability of the next recession was increas- cycles. The downward trend growth in most recent peak of the economic expan-
ing as it could be regarded that the global the long cycles puts further pressure on sion ended in 2017 in China, followed by
economy was at the last stage of the per- the shorter cycle, that is, any contraction- other major economies one year later. The
ceived expansion. In this regard, COVID-19 ary movements are aggravated and any degree of decline was also deeper than
was indeed a shock that no one could have recovery/expansionary movements are the level of the previous low in 2016.
foreseen, yet, the fact that the recession suppressed. The long cycles (Kondratieff The indicator had been continuously
happened again during the observed du- wave) are said to be typically of the signalling the fundamental weaknesses
ration of historical cycles suggests that it duration of 50–60 years and currently, of the global economy until the COVID-19
was the manifestation of the endogenous the long cycle is in the phase of a down- outbreak. Lastly, one of the most accurate
force operating in the capitalist system. swing as the recent peak was during the indicators of the short- and long-term
What is interesting is that when the 1980s. It is also evident from the trend yield inverted in June 2019. Typically, a
global economy and China experienced growth of the US presented in Table 2. recession follows with this inversion af-
strong weakness in 2015 and 2016, the The period growth before the 1980s is ter several months. These weaknesses
leading indicator and industrial profit of higher than that after the 1980s, and the built into the system have coincided with
China signalled the recession, as dis- growth rates have been continuously de- the recurrent cyclical recession timing. It
cussed earlier. It was the sixth and sev- clining since the 1980s/1990s. has been discussed that the cycle length
enth year since the recovery from the of this round had been longer than the
recession; thus, the global economy In Conclusion average duration and was also reaching
went into recession in a limited manner. This article argued that the recession the timing of a typical cyclical down-
As seen in Table 3, no duration is the that occurred in the wake of COVID-19 is turn. Interestingly, this view is in con-
same but the cycle duration is getting not a random event. After the recovery trast with the US Federal Reserve seeing
longer. The duration could be expected from the 2007–09 crisis, the global it as a positive sign.
to be longer if no fundamental changes economy has been in a fragile state and The main findings of the article have
in the global economy occurred. These susceptible to any trigger to fall into a three main implications. The first impli-
are the state-of-the-art analyses. recession. The recession was waiting to cation is that the economy operates in
happen any time, and COVID-19 became a cycles. Second, the acceleration of the
Table 3: Cycles in the US and the World—Dates
(Trough to Trough) and Duration (in Years), trigger of the significant downturn, given structural shift in the global economy,
1975–2020 its size of shock, but it was not a funda- confirming the role of China as the leading
US NBER Global Cycles mental cause. As in other past recessions, global economic player, as it is clear from
Dates Duration Dates Duration for the majority, the COVID-19-induced the discussion of the leading indicator
March 1975–July 1980 5.3 1975–82 7 recession was a surprise, as the weakness and industrial production. The decline of
July 1980–November 2.3 1982–93 11
in the economy building up since the industrial production in China corre-
1982
November 1982– 8.3 1993–2001 8
2007–09 crisis was overlooked. Again, sponds with the weakness of the global
March 1991 most could not foresee the recession economy. Although the decoupling from
March 1991– 10.7 2001–09 8 that had been approaching since 2018, China and the shift towards Vietnam and
November 2001 or even earlier. other emerging economies such as India
November 2001–July 7.6 2009–20 11 The study of the key variables and lead- associated with the restructuring of the
2009
ing indicators has shown that the coming supply chain has started, the presence
July 2009–February 10.7
2020 recession had been signalled. First, the and influence of China is expected to stay
Average 7.5 Average 9 GDP in the US, China, and the rest of the for short to medium term due to the deep-
Source: NBER; Ikeda (2019). world had been experiencing a weakening ened global integration.
COMMENTARY
Third, global leaders have responded product—expenditure approach, VPVOBAR- Policies,” IMF Blog, 9 March, https://blogs.imf.
SA) and index data from MSCI: https://www. org/2020/03/09/limiting-the-economic-fall-
to the COVID-19 crisis with unprecedented msci.com/end-of-day-data-search. out-of-the-coronavirus-with-large-targeted-
levels of expansionary countercyclical 8 When China took over the US in 2018, the policies/.
share of Chinese manufacturing was approxi-
monetary and fiscal policies. The stimu- mately 17.5%. In 2021, its share had grown to
Ikeda, Eri (2019): Global Business Cycles and Devel-
oping Countries, London: Routledge.
lus package globally announced reached roughly 35%, and the trend continues, while
India Today (2020): “Temporary Shock Shouldn’t
other economies’ share declines.
$15 trillion, owing to the large-scale in- Become Permanent: Raghuram Rajan on Coro-
9 A majority of the institutions that provide the
crease in debt. According to Tiftik et al indicator do not disclose the details of compos- navirus Impact on Economy,” 23 March, https://
ite and weightage given for each variable. www.indiatoday.in/business/story/exclusive-
(2020), the global debt is 40% higher than temporary-shock-shouldn-t-become-perma-
10 The US and G7 move almost identically.
that of 2008, reaching 322% of GDP. This 11 Since G7 and China, as a total, account for 80% of nent-raghuram-rajan-on-coronavirus-impact-
on-economy-1658859-2020-03-23
is led by the government debt, which has the global GDP, these group of countries could
be regarded as a proxy for the global economy. IMF (2020): “The Great Lockdown: Worst Econom-
doubled since 2008. In particular, the US 12 In the US, 34 cycles have been recorded by the ic Downturn since the Great Depression,” Inter-
government debt reached the highest, US National Bureau of Economic Research national Monetary Fund Press Release No
(NBER) between 1854 and 2020, and the global 20/98, 23 March, https://www.imf.org/en/
and China’s debt accumulation is at the business cycles in this duration are discussed News/Articles/2020/03/23/pr2098-imf-man-
highest since 2009, making the debt-to- by Ikeda (2019). aging-director-statement-following-a-g20-minis-
GDP ratio reach 310% (Tiftik et al 2020). 13 The key difference is due to the frequency of terial-call-on-the-coronavirus-emergency.
the data, data used, and the identification — (2022): “Countering the Cost-of-Living Crisis,”
A large debt generally adds constraints method. The NBER typically dates the cycle World Economic Outlook Report, October,
to economic growth and for developing based on the committee decision including the https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/
reviews of cyclical identification with various Issues/2022/10/11/world-economic-outlook-
countries, the excess external borrowing methodologies. See Ikeda (2019) for the alter- october-2022.
has already caused many sovereign de- native cycle identification methodology.
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This PDF was uploade To Telegram channel_https://t.me/Magazines_8890050582(send
Output-Inflation Trade-off,” BrookingsMePaper
Message
on telegram ya Business
WhatsApp Cycle,” Journal 8890050582)
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in advanced economies due to high in- 25 March, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/ cycles.html.
flation caused by geopolitical crises and bernanke-says-this-is-much-closer-to-a-natu- OECD (2020): “Coronavirus (COVID-19): Joint Ac-
ral-disaster-than-the-great-depression.html. tions to Win the War,” http://www.oecd.org/
the further weakening of China appear Benzoni, Luca, Olena Chyruk and David Kelley newsroom/oecd-secretary-general-coronavi-
to be aggravating factors for another re- (2018): “Why Does the Yield-curve Slope rus-war-demands-joint-action.htm.
Predict Recessions?” Federal Reserve Bank of — (2024): Composite Leading Indicator, https://
cession soon. data.oecd.org/leadind/composite-leading-in-
Chicago, Chicago Fed Letter, No 404.
Bull, Alister (2020): “Powell Says Recovery Could dicator-cli.htm.
Notes Drag Through 2021, Fed Has More Ammo,” Powell, Jerome H (2019): “Building on the Gains
1 The global growth recorded was -3% and over Bloomberg, 17 May, https://www.bloomberg. from the Long Expansion,” Board of Governors
90 developing countries rushed to the Inter- com/news/articles/2020-05-17/powell-cautions- of the Federal Reserve System, https://www.
national Monetary Fund (IMF) for seeking a res- u-s-recovery-could-stretch-through-end-of-2021. federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/pow-
cue, while these countries were more resilient Cox, J (2020): “Fed’s James Bullard Says After a ell20191125a.htm.
during the previous crisis (Georgieva 2020). Short-term ‘Unparalleled’ Shock, Economy Robinson, Joan (1974): History versus Equilibrium,
2 The expected growth in 2022 and 2023 are well Will Boom Again,” CNBC, 25 March, https:// London: Thames Polytechnic.
below this level (IMF 2022). www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/feds-james-bull- Schumpeter, Joseph A (1939): Business Cycles: A
3 The mainstream or orthodox economists not ard-says-after-a-short-term-unparalleled- Theoretical, Historical and Statistical Analysis
only dominate academic research on business shock-economy-will-boom-again.html. of the Capitalist Process, Vol I, New York:
cycles, but also most policy thinking stemming Friedman, Milton (1957): A Theory of the Consumption McGraw-Hill Book.
from cyclical analyses.
Function, Princeton: Princeton University Press. Smith, Noah (2020): “Paul Krugman Is Pretty Up-
4 These typically depend on the subgroups; Real beat about the Economy,” Bloomberg, 27 May,
Business Cycles (RBC), Monetarist, Equilibrium Friedman, Milton and Anna J Schwartz (1975):
“Money and Business Cycle,” State of Monetary https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti-
Business Cycles (EBC) or New Classicals, Austrian
Business Cycles (ABC), and New Keynesians (or Economics, https://www.nber.org/system/files/ cles/2020-05-27/paul-krugman-is-pretty-up-
New Synthesis) theories/approaches. chapters/c5179/c5179.pdf. beat-about-coronavirus-economic-recovery.
5 Therefore, the identified shock is not necessarily Georgieva, Kristalina (2020): “Confronting the Cri- Tiftik, Emre, Khadija Mahmood and Jadranka
in line with the existing theoretical frameworks. sis: Priorities for the Global Economy,” Interna- Poljak (2020): “Global Debt Monitor: Sustaina-
6 Also, methodologically, the identification of tional Monetary Fund, Speech, 9 April, https:// bility Matters,” Institute of International Finance,
recession dates is only made after several www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/04/07/ 13 January.
months of global recession. sp040920-SMs2020-Curtain-Raiser. World Bank (na): World Development Indicators,
7 The author’s calculation. The composite G7 Gopinath, Gita (2020): “Limiting the Economic https://databank.worldbank.org/source/
growth data is from OECD (gross domestic Fallout of the Coronavirus with Large Targeted world-development-indicators.
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COMMENTARY
some add-ons to bring out welfare aspects.

National Accounts The first approach envisages a total revo-
lution in the database, while the second
Feasibility of Macro–Micro Linkage allows a degree of flexibility to generate
the required tabulations by using the ex-
isting database and presenting them as
K G K Subba Rao satellite accounts, supplementing the main
sets of accounts.
D
The next revision in the System uring the last decade, there have In either case, data availability, con-
of National Accounts envisages been in-depth discussions in the ceptual problems, and limitations of the
international fora on the revision household surveys need to be examined.
several changes in the framework
of the System of National Accounts (SNA), The topics covered for discussion cover a
of accounts. It will be useful 2008, which was the fourth in the series wide array,3 some of which are oriented
to generate some important since its inception. The joint conference of from the perspective of household welfare,
distributions from the household the International Association for Research while others are new topics not covered
on Income and Wealth (IARIW) and the in the SNA 2008. Important among them
sample surveys without linking
Organisation for Economic Co-operation are (i) well-being and sustainability;
the two data sets. This is and Development (OECD) held in 2015 on (ii) distributional information on income,
illustrated with results from the Future of National Accounts under consumption, saving, and wealth across
the All India Debt and the caption “Whither the SNA,” was the various household groups, which impinge
major initiative in this direction, in on the standard of living; and (iii) bringing
Investment Survey.
which several interesting papers were in unmarketed services into the ambit of
presented on various issues to be con- national accounts.
sidered for revision.1 The contents of
these papers were reviewed by Van de Multidimensional Concept
Ven et al (2017).2 These were subsequent- The concept of welfare is multidimen-
ly followed up by special seminars or- sional covering a variety of yardsticks,
ganised by IARIW. some of which are measurable and others
More importantly, at the institutional immeasurable. Needless to mention, it is
levels, several advisory expert groups difficult to compile a composite index,
were set up under the aegis of the Inter measuring “How is life?” Even so, the
Secretariat Working Group on National OECD is compiling a “better life index,”
Accounts (ISWGNA) for various topics covering some measurable parameters
and documents prepared for discussion, and others reflecting on quality of life.4
with experts from the United Nations Apart from this, the next SNA revision
(UN), International Monetary Fund (IMF), envisages several changes in the frame-
World Bank, OECD, EUROSTAT, and other work of accounts, with emphasis on the
experts from various countries. welfare aspects of the households and
The main contention of these discus- distributional information on household
sions is that the SNA revolving around a income, consumption, saving, and wealth
single indicator of gross domestic product in line with the national accounts. A pre-
(GDP) is not a measure of welfare, the ac- requisite for these distributions is that
counts need to be reoriented to social the two data sets of the households at
and environmental issues, income dis- the micro and macro levels are to be
tribution, unpaid work, and so on, and brought to a common platform, with
the SNA should be redesignated as Sys- uniformity in the sector definition, con-
tem of National Economic Accounts cepts and definitions, and methodology
This is a revised version of a paper presented (SNEA), which should, inter alia, cover in the two sources.
at the 41st annual conference of the Indian Distributional National Accounts (DINA) When the two data sets are widely vary-
Association for Research in National Income from the households’ perspective. ing in scope and coverage, using the mi-
and Wealth in March 2023.
Two different views were voiced in crodata and deriving distributions ac-
K G K Subba Rao (kgksubbarao@gmail.com) this context: one to bring out radical cording to different classificatory char-
was a former advisor to the Reserve Bank of change in the existing system, and the acters in alignment with aggregates un-
India, Mumbai.
other to retain the existing system, with der reference, is not practicable. Even so,
COMMENTARY
it will be useful to generate some impor- post-tax national income to examine how households by decile groups/quantiles,
tant distributions from the household far post-tax redistributions of the gov- ranking the households according to
sample surveys, which could be of use ernment (taxes, transfers, and public ex- various characteristics. The other classi-
for policy formulation and analytical penditure on services such as education, ficatory characteristics suggested are
studies, and appended in the satellite ac- defence, health, etc) affect inequality. (i) main sources of income, (ii) geo-
counts, without linking the two data There is a widening gap between na- graphical regions, and (iii) labour mar-
sets. These are illustrated with reference tional accounts (which focus on macro- ket status.7 In analysing the distribu-
to the results available from the All India economic aggregates and growth) and tions at the household level, it is recom-
Debt and Investment Survey (AIDIS) con- inequality measures (derived using sur- mended to focus on equalised results,
ducted in the 77th round of the National vey data). To bridge this gap, the DINA using equivalence scales that take into
Sample Survey Office (NSSO). These as- considers disparities among households account the size and composition of the
pects are detailed in this article. and addresses questions such as what households to arrive at comparable re-
The article first details the salient as- fraction of economic growth accrues to sults across households. In the distribu-
pects of the proposals available from the the different strata of the households. tions under reference, some indicators
international documents. Next, it exam- Thus, the national accounts and DINA are also suggested to vividly explain the
ines the feasibility of these compilations can be deemed as complementary data inequalities among the households. These
with the database in the Indian context. sets. Against this backdrop, DINA is ac- are the median values, the coefficient of
When the data sets between macro ag- corded priority in the next revision of the variation, the debt–asset ratio, debt–
gregates and estimates from micro data SNA, and a separate chapter on the meth- income ratio in each decile/quantile group.
are not compatible, it is suggested that odological aspects is proposed to be added, The superimposition of the micro data
important distributions, which could be which could serve as guidance notes for sets on the macro aggregates further re-
of use in policy formulation and analytical implementation. The updated document quires uniformity in concepts and defi-
studies, derivable from the household of the UN provides compilation details in nitions in the two sources. Assuming
surveys, can be presented as additional alignment with the aggregates of the that the surveys cover a major percent-
tables under satellite accounts, as a sup- household sector. OECD (2021) also gives age of households in the sector or a rough
plement to the main accounts. These as- a similar methodology for the purpose. approximation of the census figures,
pects are discussed next, culling out the The main steps involved in the proce- conceptual differences need to be sorted
household survey results available from dure are (i) defining the household sec- out. Illustratively, as indicated in the
the 77th round of the NSSO. tor covering exclusively private house- documents, non-life insurance benefits
holds, (ii) generation of distributions ac- are to be treated as capital transfers,
Methodological Issues cording to different classificatory char- while purchases of lottery tickets and in-
Economic inequality and measures to re- acters, and (iii) linkage between macro surance premiums are to be considered
duce it have been a matter of concern to aggregates and the micro data sets, with as consumption expenditure. Also, con-
many countries. The need for a suitable adjustments for concepts and definitions sumer durables shown under consump-
database on distributional aspects of key in the two sources. tion expenditure have to be removed for
indicators of households was felt imper- The main entries in the household distribution purposes and shown as a
ative for the purpose. Stiglitz et al (2009) sector accounts are primary income/dis- separate memoranda item. Another ad-
highlighted the importance of develop- posable income, consumption expenditure, justment relates to financial intermedi-
ing new evidence on inequality in line and wealth. The SNA 2008 envisaged a fine ary services indirectly measured (FISIM),
with the system of national accounts. A ideal sectoral classification of the economy which is adjusted in macro accounts.
pioneering empirical study on the DINA in which only two categories, namely pri- These are illustrative, but not exhaustive.
was attempted by Piketty et al (2018), vate non-profit institutions serving house- In addition to the above, importance
combining income tax data, survey data holds (PNPISH) and quasi-corporations is accorded to transactions among house-
and national accounts of the US, provid- (engaged in financial and non-financial holds that get netted out in the sector ac-
ing a time series of these distributions activities) are supposed to be contained in counts. Illustratively, data on remittanc-
since 1913. The three sources of data the household sector, and exclusion of es among households and capital trans-
were adjusted for differences in defini- these entities will provide accounts of the fers such as gifts, etc, are to be collected.
tions, coverage, and so on, before arriv- real households.5 As the revised definition This is additional data collection on in-
ing at the distributions. The study ex- is to cover only private households, institu- tra-sector flows among households.
amines the extent to which economic tional households are also proposed to be Against the backdrop of the proposals
growth is percolated to the different excluded.6 Thus, the accounts of the other outlined, a few points merit consideration.
quartiles in the income spectrum, and entities embedded in the current and capi- First, the proposed linkage is feasible only
how much of this rise in income inequal- tal accounts need to be disentangled for when the aggregates derived from the
ity owes to changes in labour and capital deriving those of the private households. macro and micro data sets are dimension-
in national income. Furthermore, a dis- After this is accomplished, the proposals ally comparable. Second, the definition
tinction is made between pre-tax and envisage the classification of the private of the sector should be the same, and
COMMENTARY
conceptual differences need to be sorted large-scale sample surveys are conducted mixture of not only private households
out. The details of current and capital on different aspects of households, but but also PNPISH, unincorporated enter-
accounts in the sector accounts should the estimates derived therefrom are sub- prises and other entities not elsewhere
be available from the survey sources. In ject to sampling and non-sampling er- classified.9
countries like the US and UK, the esti- rors. Though the relative standard er- In respect of unincorporated enter-
mates of saving, consumption, and net rors are within tolerable limits at the ag- prises, quasi-corporations, as defined in
worth are derived from the income and gregate levels, they may be high at dis- SNA 2008, were transferred to the finan-
expenditure surveys and also the Flow aggregated levels. This aspect assumes cial and non-financial corporations, but
of Funds (FOF) accounts. importance when distributions accord- this has not captured all the sources and
A reference to these sources of data is ing to various classificatory characters uses of funds of these entities, even so, a
made in the Report of the High Level are attempted from these survey data. segment of unincorporated enterprises
Committee on Saving and Investment remains as a remnant.10 So, segregation
(HLCSI) (MOSPI 2009) in which personal Distributional Aspects of the private households (named as
saving estimates from these surveys re- The linkage between the macro aggre- pure households in HLCSI) is not feasible.
flected in national accounts (compiled gates of the households with the micro- Next, let us examine the conceptual
by the Bureau of Economic Analysis) are data and the derivation of the distribu- problems in the two data sets. In the
compared with those in the FOF accounts tions under reference primarily assumes household sector accounts, both physical
(compiled by the Federal Reserve Board the identification of private households as investment, financial sources and uses
[2019]).8 Wide differences are noticed a distinct category, close concordance of funds are derived as a residual. In-
between the two estimates, even after between the two data sets and uniformity vestment in physical assets of the sector
some adjustments are done as men- in concepts and definitions. The first is derived as a residual using the com-
tioned earlier. These discrepancies are pertinent question is the identification modity flow approach, after eliminating
inevitable, even when countries conduct of the private households, disentangling the investments of other sectors from
large-scale income and expenditure sur- all other entities from the household sector the aggregates, which are also subject to
veys and relevant variables are plugged in the existing National Accounts Statis- errors and omissions. Thus, the deemed
into national accounts. In some countries, tics (NAS). This sector is a heterogeneous investment against the household sector
Call for Papers

EPW Special Issue on India’s Industrial Transformation
Guest Editor: Nagesh Kumar, Director,
Institute for Studies in Industrial Development (ISID), New Delhi
The Economic and Political Weekly invites articles from researchers and policy analysts for the special industry issue to be published around the
middle of 2024. The special issue will include submissions to this call as well as solicited articles.
The submission guidelines:
1. Scope of submission—Original, unpublished essays related to industrial development. Authors are welcome to send both technical and
policy papers.
2. Length—Between 4,000 and 6,000 words (inclusive of an abstract and references in EPW style).
3. Eligibility—Any person engaged in academics, policy-making or research.
4. Focus—Preference will be given to papers dealing with contemporary issues relating to industrial development in India including industrial
investments and their financing, technology and innovation, productivity improvements and competitiveness, digital transformation and
industry 4.0, green industrialization, foreign direct investment, global value chains, MSMEs, Start-ups and entrepreneurship, public sector’s
role in industrial development, balanced regional development, corporate governance and strategic interventions and industrial policy for
driving structural transformation in a more inclusive and sustainable manner.
5. Procedure for submission:
a. Please mention your full name, institutional affiliation, contact details, acknowledgements and other relevant details on the cover page.
b. All entries must be accompanied by an undertaking that the article has not been submitted to any other journal for publication in any
other form.
c. Send your entries by 30 April 2024 to industryissue@epw.in (with a cc to nkumar@isid.org.in) in Microsoft Word format with the
email subject being “Industry Special Issue”. All tables and figures must be in Excel format.”
EPW will notify successful applicants before publication of the issue. The decision of the editorial board of EPW will be final.
COMMENTARY
contains errors carried over from other are (i) self-employed and (ii) others. The The other important distribution is the
sectors as well, which are immeasura- tabulations are provided by a single clas- distribution of outstanding debt by size
ble. The financial sources and uses of sifi catory character in statements and as classes of loans and decile classes of assets
funds of the sector are also derived by detailed tables for two-way classifica- for rural and urban households. From the
eliminating the claims/obligations of tions in the NSSO report. data details, a cumulative number of house-
different sectors from the aggregates of We may examine these tabulations holds and the cumulative loan amounts
different credit instruments in the ac- from the results of the latest NSSO 77th for each decile class can be worked out
counts of other sectors. Even so, the esti- round (Report No 588) which can be and Lorenz curves drawn. Though these
mates on the financial side are more used for policy purposes and analytical distributions are skewed, with a small
credible, when compared with the physi- studies and appended as supplements percentage of households in top decile
cal counterpart. under satellite accounts. Considering some groups accounting for a major share of
In the case of the final consumption summarised tabulations, the details of the outstanding debt, it will be more
expenditure of the households shown in the distribution of assets and debt by evenly distributed in other decile groups.
the NAS, the estimates are derived by the decile class of household assets (classi- Thus, in the entire Lorenz curve, three
commodity flow approach, adjusting for fied by ranking households by total assets) distinct cut-off points can be identified,
stocks and intermediate consumption of are available; the average value of total where the curve changes its curvature
industries, etc (see, CSO 2012). The scope assets and debt are also available. Using and the distribution could be more even.
and coverage of the household consump- these data, the curves of concentration The average outstanding debt at the cut-off
tion expenditure are different in the NSSO or Lorenz curves can be drawn to measure points in the lower segments will give a
surveys, deriving estimates of consump- the inequalities in asset distribution and rough idea of the credit requirements of
tion expenditure of each of the items, the corresponding Gini coefficient worked the lower strata of the households. This
including durable household goods. out. Also, the debt-to-asset ratios in each information assumes considerable im-
Tinkering with the two data sets in the of the decile classes can be worked out. portance in the context of extending the
NAS and those in the NSSO surveys with The debt-to-asset ratio can be expected financial inclusion schemes to the weak-
wide differences in scope and coverage to be very high in lower decile groups of er sections of society and bringing the
is not appropriate.11 The proposals in the households, tapering down when mov- excluded category into the ambit of in-
SNA revision also highlight distributions ing to the higher decile classes. While this stitutional finance at affordable costs.
according to different classificatory charac- is the picture available from the generated
ters. If the data emanating from sample tabulations, these can be supplemented Concluding Observations
surveys according to deciles/quartiles by other measures, by examining the The demand for disaggregated data of
are used for the purpose, an important disaggregated data at the household households and distributions thereof
caveat is the adequacy of the sample size level in each decile class.12 As indicated has been accorded priority from the wel-
in each of the decile groups. earlier, the median value, the coefficient fare perspective, and this is the main
As in the case of the US and possibly in of variation and the maximum and min- focus in the revision of the SNA. Data
some other countries, we do not have imum values can be provided for the capture and processing need to be geared
countrywide income and expenditure characteristics under consideration. The up to attempt such a granular analysis,
surveys to estimate personal savings other one-way tabulations, which can with a linkage between micro statistics
from this source and insert in the NAS. be of use, are distributions of cash debt and national accounts. Statistical sys-
Even the repetitive pilot surveys of the for institutional/non-institutional debt tems in many countries are not tailored to
NSSO on the income and expenditure of by ranges of interest rates, which would attempt such exercises. Even so, work on
the households did not yield satisfactory shed light on the interest burden on DINA is done in countries like the US,
results. In this milieu, the only alterna- the households. Australia, and the UK, where the data
tive analysis would be to make optimum Considering the two-way tabulations, sets under reference are more amenable
use of the distributions derivable from the the details of cash debt classified by the for the exercise. The World Inequality
household surveys, which we discuss next. interest range and decile classes for in- Database (WID) compiles these accounts
stitutional and non-institutional debt for several countries that do not have ad-
Include Debt and Investment give further insight into the debt burden equate databases.14 The Federal Reserve
The AIDIS periodically covered in various with respect to loans taken by rural and Board of the US is compiling Distribu-
rounds of the NSSO provides interesting urban households. Another interesting tional Financial Accounts (DFA) based
tabulations on the debt and investment table is the distribution of outstanding on their two data sources, namely Quar-
aspects of the households in rural and cash debt by each credit agency and for terly Aggregate Measures of Wealth and
urban areas, which are also available for different interest ranges. This distribu- Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), the
the occupational categories covered there- tion is useful in examining the interest latter gives triennial wealth distribution
in. The occupational types for rural house- rate structure in informal credit markets (Federal Reserve Board 2019).
holds are (i) cultivators and (ii) non-culti- and also the disparity in interest rates In the Indian context, even the segre-
vators, while the classifications for urban even among institutional sources.13 gation of the (heterogeneous) household
COMMENTARY
sector into a distinct entity of private wards2025.asp). This contains a list of task 15 In the distribution of outstanding debt by
teams, and one such is concerned with the credit agencies, “friends and relatives” are
households is inconceivable, apart from document “Guidance note for distribution of shown as one source under non-institutional
other problems detailed earlier. Further, household income, consumption and wealth.” sources; this could be deemed as intra-house-
(https://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalac- hold transactions.
self-employed and proprietary units are count/RAdocs/WS2_Dist_HH_Inc_Cons_
predominant in the sector, which do not Wealth_Paper.pdf). These proposals are in the References
discussion stage. The finalised version will ap-
maintain any accounts, and so factor pear as a separate chapter in the next SNA. CSO (2012): “National Accounts Statistics—Sources
payments to labour and capital cannot 4 The measurable aspects are health, education, and Methods,” Central Statistical Organisation,
employment, housing, income, and wealth. Im- Government of India.
be isolated. The pilot surveys on house- Federal Reserve Board (2019): “Introducing Distri-
measurable aspects are job satisfaction, social
hold income and expenditure hitherto connections, environmental conditions, security, butional Financial Accounts of the US,” Finance
and so on. For the OECD index, reference may and Economics Discussion Series, Department
conducted by the NSSO point out the of Research and Statistics and Monetary
be made to the OECD website (http://www.
fragile and fragmentary data collected. oecd-library.org/social-migration-health/ Affairs, March.
In particular, underreporting of incomes, data/better-life-index2015data-00823-en). Harrison, A (2017): “Whither the SNA,” Review of
5 This implies that the SNA 2008 sectoral classi- Income and Wealth, Series 63, Supplement 2,
unreliable data on inventories, consump- fication identifies all entities in the economy in pp S208–S22.
tion expenditure, etc, result in illusory the respective sectors, and the household sec- MOSPI (2009): “Report of the High Level Commit-
tor bereft of HPISH could be deemed as private tee on Estimation of Saving and Investment,”
saving of the households. households, which may not be so. Ministry of Statistics and Programme Imple-
Given the poor database of the house- 6 These cover households such as boarding mentation, Government of India.
schools, nursing homes, temples, and hospitals. — (2021): “NSS Report No 588, All India Debt and
hold sector, the idealistic DINA in the 7 There are some other classificatory characters Investment Survey (January–December 2019),”
proposed SNA revision is not realisable. listed in the documents, but not mentioned here. Ministry of Statistics and Programme Imple-
Even so, the results of the household sur- 8 See Table 6.1: “Comparison of Personal Saving mentation, Government of India.
in the NPA accounts with Personal saving in OECD (2021): “Distribution of Household Income,
veys can be harnessed to derive distribu- FFAs” (Federal Reserve Board 2019: 88). Consumption and Wealth in Line with National
tions, which could be advantageously 9 This arises due to the non-availability or par- Accounts–Methodology and Results,” Working
tial availability of accounts of a sub-sector or Paper No 108, Organisation for Economic
used for policy purposes and analytical entities therein. Co-operation and Development.
studies. Illustrative examples of the use 10 Households not covered under quasi-corpora- Piketty et al (2018): “Distributional National Acc-
tions remain in the household sector as a rem- ounts: Methods and Estimates for the United
of these results are described above with nant, with various business activities. States,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol 133,
reference to the 77th round of the AIDIS 11 Even so, estimates of private final consumption pp 553–609.
expenditure in the NAS are compared with the Stiglitz, J E et al (2009): “Report by the Commission
results. Similar distributions can be extrac- NSSO survey data on household consumption on the Measurement of Economic Performance
ted from other household surveys of the expenditure surveys. and Social Progress,” (Online), Commission on
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the Measurement This numberPerformance
Economic 8890050582)
NSSO; these can be the add-ons to the 12 This exercise involves the use of unit-wise data
and the corresponding multipliers, to generate and Social Progress (CMEPSP), https://ec.eu-
main accounts and can be presented under the distribution of a cumulative number of ropa.eu/eurostat/docu-
satellite accounts as supplements, with- households and the cumulative characteristic ments/8131721/8131772/Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi-
under consideration. The sample size in each Commission-report.pdf.
out matching the macro aggregates of the cell also needs to be considered for the purpose. Van De Ven, P et al (2017): “Introduction to the Spe-
households sector of the NAS. As already 13 See detailed Tables A28R, A28U, A31R, A31U cial Issue of the Review of Income and Wealth,
(MOSPI 2021). Whither the SNA,” Review of Income and
mentioned, some of these distributions 14 See the WID working papers at http://WID.World. Wealth, Series 63, Supplement 2, pp S201–S207.
could be of use in formulating schemes
of financial assistance to the weaker sec-
tions of society, in the context of the INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH (IEG)
growing importance accorded to finan- UNIVERSITY OF DELHI ENCLAVE, DELHI – 110007
cial inclusion of this targeted group.
One aspect which is highlighted in the Ref: SRT/Academic/2024 February 6, 2024
proposals, related to the intra-household
transactions, gets masked in the ac- Calling online applications for one position of the
counts. These relate to both current and Junior Sir Ratan Tata Post Doc Fellow in Economics
capital transfers. Presently, the AIDIS
The Institute invites online applications for one position of the Junior Sir Ratan
does not collect details on these transac-
Tata Post Doc Fellow in Economics from young social scientists at the level
tions.15 A separate block may perhaps be
introduced to capture these data in the of Assistant Professor from Indian Scholars preferably below 35 years of age
next survey. with a Ph.D. Degree in Economics to undertake research on a well-formulated
research project of their work for a period of one year, renewable up to a total
notes
period of three years, subject to an annual evaluation of satisfactory progress.
1 The Special Issue of the Review of Income and
Wealth in the IARIW—OECD conference on
the future of National Accounts, Whither the For details please see the IEG Website: www.iegindia.org or write to the
SNA, contains many of these papers (Review of Director’s Office, Email: diroffice@iegindia.org / Academic Programmes Officer,
Income and Wealth, Series 63, Supplement 2,
December 2017). E-mail: sushil@iegindia.org Telephone: 27667365 Extension No. 229. The last
2 Also see Harrison (2017).
3 These are detailed in the UN Statistics Division
date of receipt of online applications is March 7, 2024.
website link, “Towards the 2025 SNA” (https:// DIRECTOR
unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/to-
COMMENTARY
(1951: 527–28) enumerated it to be at

The Indian Diaspora 34,68,610. According to Kingsley Davis
(1951: 98), at the time of partition of the
Discrepancies in Population Estimates subcontinent, the number of persons liv-
ing abroad who were born in India or
descended from Indians slightly exceeded
Prakash C Jain, Rajendra Prasad four million. It appears that no system-
atic attempts were made to estimate the
T
The two major population he appointment of a High Level overseas Indian population during the
estimates of the Indian diaspora Committee on the Indian Diaspora 1950s and 1960s, which probably reflect
by the Ministry of External Affairs the lack of interest on the part of the
in the 21st century are critically
in August 2000 heralded a new era in academics as well as the GoI (Mahajani
examined. Both estimates were showing the Government of India’s (GoI) 1976). The then Prime Minister Jawaharlal
made by the Ministry of External concern towards its diaspora. Various Nehru had frequently exhorted the over-
Affairs, Government of India, and path-breaking recommendations apart, seas Indians to identify themselves with
the committee in its report also made the country of their adoption. For exam-
appear to be definitive documents
country-wise population estimates of ple, in 1955, he declared that Indians in
on the subject. The article also the Indian diaspora which was also the Africa could expect no help from India if
provides a brief historiography first major exercise of its kind on the part they exploited Africans. Not surprisingly,
of the population estimates of of the government (High Level Commit- an Indian diplomat had labelled the
tee 2001). The second major and the latest GoI’s policy towards overseas Indians as
overseas Indians/Indian diaspora
such estimates were made by the GoI in “confused and erratic” (Bhatia 1973).
since India’s independence. 2018 (Ministry of External Affairs 2018). Since then, however, there has been a
These two documents and their ante- complete reversal in India’s policy to-
cedents are the focus of this article, wards the diaspora, a new nomenclature
which critically looks into each of them for overseas Indians in the 21st century.
and underlines the Indian government’s Coming to the 1970s, while Hugh
somewhat muddled thinking on the sub- Tinker (1977: 11) estimated the overseas
ject, especially in regard to South Asian Indian population at around five million
countries. As per the second document, for 1970, Yash Tandon (1973: 4) estimated
in December 2018, the Indian diaspora it at 6.5 million for 1972. Speaking in the
population was estimated at around 32.3 Lok Sabha in August 1972, the then dep-
million—an increase of about 20 million uty minister for external affairs, Surendra
since 1981 when the first author of this Pal Singh had stated that only about
article estimated the overseas Indian 3.4 million persons of Indian origin (PIO)
population at about 12.1 million (Jain had settled abroad (Tinker 1977: 11).
1982: 300). In fact, the 21st century wit- Obviously, the GoI’s figure, roughly cor-
nessed unprecedented growth in the pop- responding to the estimate for 1947, was
ulation of the Indian diaspora—from a great underestimation.
about 17 million in 2001 to over 32 mil- Until the mid-1970s, the population
lion in 2018; and that too, notwithstand- estimates of overseas Indians were
ing the fact that since India’s independ- largely made by individual scholars.
ence, the GoI has often underestimated Subsequently, in India, some non-gov-
its diaspora size. Before we go further, it ernmental organisations (NGOs) and the
would be useful to have a brief account Ministry of External Affairs began to get
of the historiography of population esti- involved in this and allied activities.
mates of the Indian diaspora. Thus, at New Delhi’s India International
Centre, from 1976 to 1985, I J Bahadur
Historiography of Singh headed “The Other India” project
Population Estimates to examine the status of people of Indian
Various population estimates of overseas descent abroad and their relations with
Prakash C Jain (pcjain.jnu@gmail.com)
formerly taught sociology/international Indian communities have been made India. He provides an estimate of about
studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, from time to time by different scholars 12.9 million overseas Indians for 1981
New Delhi. Rajendra Prasad (rajendra.jnu@ since India’s independence. Thus, for 1947, (Singh 1982: 205–08). By the late 1970s,
gmail.com) teaches political science at Sambhu Nanjundan (1950) made an estimate the ever-increasing emigration of Indians
Nath College, Birbhum, West Bengal.
of 33,83,137 persons, whereas Kondapi to Gulf countries prompted the GoI
COMMENTARY
through its Ministries of Labour and who are spread in 210 countries (Ministry interference by mainland China could
External Affairs to take stock of the of External Affairs 2018). Unlike the 2001 be the reason for the numerical decline
Indians in foreign lands (Jain 2007; Jain estimates, there is no mention of the cat- of the diaspora there.
and Oommen 2016). egory of stateless persons in the 2018 esti- The High Level Committee on the
During the early 1980s, a more sys- mates. Also, between the two estimates, Indian Diaspora reported 1,10,900 Indians
tematic attempt was made at the over- the latter appears to be more realistically in Yemen in 2001, consisting of 1,00,000
seas Indian population at around 12.1 made, though it still suffers from a few PIOs and 900 NRIs. However, in 2018
million in 1981 (Jain 1982: Table 300)— discrepancies that we will discuss next. estimates, only 10,500 Indians were re-
a figure which is somewhat comparable ported in Yemen—10,000 PIOs and 500
to that of Singh’s estimate mentioned A Critical Look at the Estimates NRIs—suggesting a sharp reduction in
above. Jain’s exercise, however, suffers The two estimates of overseas Indian the number of PIOs (Table 1). The doubt-
from a major omission of Ceylon Tamils populations for 1981 (Jain 1982; Singh ful reliability of well-rounded PIO fig-
whose population around that time, ac- 1982), which were done independently, ures of 1,00,000 and 10,000 in the two
cording to the 1981 Sri Lankan census display close resemblance in regard to estimates apart, the Yemeni case can be
enumerations, was reported to be about their total numbers. However, both esti- explained by the fact that Yemen has
1.9 million. It would not be out of place mates also suffer from the following been undergoing a political crisis/civil
here to mention that until then the Cey- discrepancies: (i) in both estimates for war for the past 10 years or so.
lon Tamils who have been settled there Sri Lanka, the figures represent only the
for millennia had not launched the Indian Tamils, and not the Ceylon Tamils; Major Discrepancies
Tamil Eelam movement, and that the and (ii) Singh’s estimate of NRI population With reference to the data on the Indian
status of only Indian Tamils was a major in Saudi Arabia at 8,00,000 for 1981, if diaspora for 2001 and 2018, the most
problem in Indo-Sri Lankan relations. In not a typographic error with one extra glaring discrepancies regarding the pop-
any case, the inclusion of Ceylon Tamils zero, is an extremely exaggerated figure ulation estimates can be seen in the
would have raised the total overseas by about 6,50,000. cases of Nepal, Sri Lanka, Myanmar,
Indian population in 1981 to about While the population increase over Bangladesh, and Pakistan. These are
14 million. the years in varying numbers in most briefly discussed here.
On 18 August 2000, the Ministry of overseas Indian communities is a normal
External Affairs appointed a High Level and expected phenomenon, a significant Nepal: In a statement in the Lok Sabha
Committee on the Indian Diaspora un- decrease in their number in some coun- in 1979, the then minister of external af-
der the chairpersonship of L M Singhvi, tries requires an explanation. In the latter fairs had reported the number of Indians in
an eminent jurist, author, member of group of countries, Guyana, Yemen, Nepal as 3.2 million, of whom 2.4 mil-
Parliament and former High Commis- Tanzania, Fiji, and Hong Kong figure lion had acquired Nepalese citizenship
sioner of India to the United Kingdom prominently where the number of over- (Jain 1982: 300). Estimates by Singh
that submitted its report in December seas Indians during 2001–18 has declined (1982: 207) put these figures at 3.8 mil-
2001 after having an extensive consulta- by about 96,000, 90,400, 30,000, 21,000, lion and 2.4 million, respectively. Surpris-
tion with experts, organisations and, and 11,700, respectively (Table 1). Against ingly, the report of the High Level Com-
members of the Indian diaspora commu- their respective historical migration mittee on the Indian Diaspora (2001) does
nities in about two dozen countries. The dynamics, it can well be said that in the not list Nepal as an Indian diaspora host
committee estimated the total population cases of Guyana, Tanzania, and Fiji, the country. But in 2018, the estimates of the
of the Indian diaspora at 16.8 million, in- decline in numbers can be explained by Indian diaspora in Nepal by the Ministry
cluding 4,68,920 persons as stateless the ongoing process of twice migration of External Affairs (2018) surfaced again
(High Level Committee 2001: XLVII-L). and voluntary relocation into the indus- with only 6,00,000 NRIs (Table 1). What
Underlining the importance of the diaspo- trially advanced countries. In Hong happened to the entire PIO population in
ra to the country, the committee also made Kong, however, the increasing political Nepal which is presently estimated at
several recommendations, including the
Table 1: Population of Overseas Indian/Indian Diaspora Communities in Select Countries, 2001 and 2018
institution of Pravasi Bharatiya Divas S No Country 2001 2018
celebrations, Pravasi Bharatiya Samman PIOs Indian Citizens Stateless Total NRIs PIOs Total Overseas
Indians
Awards, etc, which were introduced in
1 Bangladesh – – – Not listed 10,385 6 10,391
2003 onwards (Prasad and Jain 2021). 2 Fiji 3,36,579 250 3,36,829 1,400 3,13,798 3,15,198
Most recent estimates of the Indian 3 Guyana 3,95,250 100 3,95,350 600 2,98,782 2,99,382
diaspora population were released in 4 Hong Kong 28,500 22,000 50,500 31,569 7,160 38,729
5 Myanmar 25,00,000 2,000 4,00,000 29,02,000 9,207 20,00,000 20,09,207
December 2018 by the Ministry of External 6 Nepal – – – Not listed 6,00,000 0 6,00,000
Affairs. These estimates put the Indian 7 Pakistan – – – Not listed 0 0 0
diaspora population at about 32.3 million 8 Sri Lanka – – – Not listed 14,000 16,00,000 16,14,000
9 Tanzania 85,000 5,000 – 90,000 10,000 50,000 60,000
consisting of about 18.7 million PIOs and 10 Yemen 1,00,000 900 – 1,00,900 500 10,000 10,500
13.6 million non-resident Indians (NRIs) Sources: High Level Committee on the Indian Diaspora (2001) for 2001 data and Ministry of External Affairs (2018) for 2018 data.
COMMENTARY
about five million? It appears that the diaspora countries. In the 2018 docu- diaspora from about 50 countries in 1981
Indian government does not want to ment, however, all four countries have to about 210 in 2018, but also its size
disclose the exact number of PIOs living been mentioned with varying numbers from about 13 million to 33 million during
in Nepal. of people from the Indian diaspora. We the same period. If due correctives in the
already discussed about the estimates cases of South Asian countries are made,
Sri Lanka: In the case of Sri Lanka, the of the Indian diaspora in Nepal and the population of the Indian diaspora
major discrepancies in 2001 and 2018 Sri Lanka. While Bangladesh is reported would easily shoot up to over 40 million.
estimates appear to relate to the policy to have 10,385 NRIs and only six PIOs, Like other aspects of the Indian dias-
perspectives of the GoI. Thus, while the Pakistan is reported to have none (Table 1). pora, its population estimates are an
High Level Committee on the Indian Till now religious minorities, espe- equally important area of research
Diaspora (2001) did not at all consider cially the Hindus living in Pakistan and which cannot be left to the government
Sri Lanka as an Indian diaspora country, Bangladesh, have been left out from agencies alone as, at times, they get
the 2018 data on Indians in Sri Lanka being considered as the Indian diasporic subjected to political pressures, or
with 16,14,000 persons (16,00,000 PIOs communities, despite the fact that the choose non-academic criteria in inclu-
and 14,000 NRIs) were gross underesti- majority of them connect themselves sion/omission and underestimation of
mation (Table 1). This is quite clear giv- with India for a number of reasons. The a particular diaspora population. This
en the fact that as per the 2011 Census Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 gives prompts us to argue for the increased
enumerations of Sri Lanka, there were a signal that India considers non-Muslim involvement of academics and NGOs in
22,70,927 Sri Lankan or Eelam Tamils religious minorities living in Pakistan, the task. Beyond the Indian diaspora as
and 8,42,323 Indian Tamils in the coun- Bangladesh, and Afghanistan as the a whole, the task can also be extended
try. Their present population is estimated populations of Indian origin. Thus, the to about two dozen ethnic/regional–
at around 2.5 million and one million, current practice of denial and/or under- linguistic and religious Indian diaspo-
respectively. Besides these two groups, estimation of these minorities appears ras. Needless to say, these exercises re-
the Indian diaspora in Sri Lanka should to be contrary to the spirit of the act that quire to be done from historical as well
also include about one million Tamil intends to give them (only to those who as contemporary perspectives.
Moors (Muslims) who speak Tamil arrived in India on or before 31 Decem-
REFERENCES
and trace their ancestry to, and cultural ber 2014) the status of “legal migrants,”
Bhatia, Prem
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ya WhatsApp ThisOrdeal in Africa,
number Delhi;
8890050582)
affinity with, Tamil Nadu in India. and eventually the Indian citizenship. London: Vikas Publishing House Pvt Ltd.
That the Muslims have been left out Davis, Kingsley (1951): The Population of India and
Myanmar: In 2001, the Indian diaspora from this provision is indeed a contro- HighPakistan, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Level Committee (2001): Report of the High
population was estimated at 29,02,000 versial issue and begs a redefinition of Level Committee on the Indian Diaspora, New
consisting of 25,00,000 PIOs, 2,000 NRIs, the term Indian diaspora in this context. Delhi: Indian Council of World Affairs.
Jain, Prakash C (1982): “Indians Abroad: A Current
and 4,00,000 stateless persons (Table 1). To sum up, it can well be argued that Population Estimate,” Economic & Political
By 2018, the Indian diaspora population the GoI’s population estimates of the Weekly, Vol 17, No 8, pp 299–304.
— (ed) (2007): Indian Diaspora in West Asia, New
declined to 20,09,207 (20,00,000 PIOs Indian diasporas in South Asia appear Delhi: Manohar Publishers.
and 9,207 NRIs), registering a decline of to be arbitrary and ahistorical. Perhaps, Jain, Prakash C and Ginu Zacharia Oommen (eds)
(2016): South Asian Migration to Gulf Coun-
about 90,000 people (Table 1). It is also India is not yet ready to connect with tries: History, Policies, Development, New Delhi:
not known as to what happened to the them due to some political, economic, Routledge India.
category of stateless persons. Given the and strategic compulsions. Maybe, this Kondapi, C (1951): Indians Overseas, 1838–1949,
Madras: Oxford University Press.
uncertain political situation in Myanmar is the reason why the PIO card is not Mahajani, Usha (1976): “India and the People of
during the said period and the pressure being given to eligible Indian diaspora Indian Origin Abroad,” India’s Foreign Relations
during the Nehru Era: Some Studies, M S Rajan
to assimilate through interfaith mar- community members living in South (ed), Bombay: Asia Publisher House.
riage and conversion to the state reli- Asian countries in addition to those in Ministry of External Affairs (2018): “Population
of Overseas Indians,” Government of India,
gion, that is, Buddhism, it should not be China and Iran. viewed on 27 October 2021, https://mea.gov.
difficult to understand the causes of the in/images/attach/NRIs-and-PIOs_1.pdf.
In Conclusion Nanjundan, S (1950): Indians in Malayan Economy,
decline in the number of people from the New Delhi: Office of the Economic Advisor,
Indian diaspora there. Given the global spread and diversity of Government of India.
the Indian diaspora, the estimation of Prasad, Rajendra and Prakash C Jain (2021):
“Pravasi Bharatiya Samman Awards: A Prelim-
Bangladesh and Pakistan: Until re- its size with accuracy has always been a inary Analysis,” Global Research Forum on
cently, India was reluctant to talk difficult exercise indeed. Nevertheless, Diaspora and Transnationalism (GRFDT),
(mimeographed), pp 1–16.
about the Indian diaspora in both these numerous attempts have been made to Singh, I J Bahadur (1982): Indians in Southeast
countries. In the report of High Level achieve this task from time to time since Asia, New Delhi: Sterling Publishers Private Ltd.
Tandon, Yash (1973): Problems of a Displaced
Committee on the Indian Diaspora (2001), India’s independence. Four major sys- Minority: The New Position of East Africa’s
as already mentioned, along with Nepal tematic estimates discussed in this article Asians, London: Minority Rights Group.
Tinker, Hugh (1977): The Banyan Tree: Overseas
and Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan clearly underscore not only the progres- Emigrants from India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh,
also did not figure in the list of Indian sive geographical spread of the Indian New York: Oxford University Press.
COMMENTARY
well as through the social normativity of

Law Commission of India and adolescent marriage (Sen and Ghosh
2021).2 Lansdown (2005: 132–35) con-
the Debate on Age of Consent vincingly argues that the recognition of
the emerging capacity of adolescents to
make their own decisions, including sex-
Shraddha Chaudhary ual decisions, is also implicit in the Unit-
ed Nations Convention on the Rights of
I
Given the likelihood that the n its 283rd report released in Sep- the Child, 1989. The question came to be
Law Commission of India’s tember 2023, the Law Commission of referred to the LCI through multiple de-
India (LCI) commented on the highly cisions of high courts, which also noted
recommendations will exert a
complex issue of the age of consent for the incongruity between the biological
persuasive force on future sexual interactions. The Protection of and social reality of Indian adolescents
policy decisions on this subject, Children from Sexual Offences Act and the legal fiction created by the POCSO,
the 283rd report of the LCI on (POCSO), 2012 and the Indian Penal Code, because of which de facto consensual
1860 both peg the age of consent at 18 relationships are criminalised.
the age of consent under the
years. This means that all persons under The situation is aggravated by the
Protection of Children from the age of 18 years are uniformly defined mandatory reporting provision of the
Sexual Offences Act, 2012 as “children” and the consent of any POCSO, which makes it mandatory, on
deserves engagement. While “child,” so defined, is deemed irrelevant pain of criminal punishment, to report
in law. This means that offences under any sexual interaction involving a mi-
the LCI was aware of the
the POCSO have, so far, been “statutory nor, notwithstanding its negative im-
contestations and complications rape” offences, that is, offences in which pacts on the minor (CCL-NLSIU 2018) or
surrounding the issue of the the “wrong” underpinning criminalisa- the duty of medical professionals to
age of consent for sexual tion is not the absence of consent, but maintain the confidentiality of their pa-
the presumed incapacity to consent. The tients (Jagadeesh et al 2017). In the con-
relations, its recommendations
LCI report recommends that in limited text of abortion services, the Supreme
failPDF
This to was
satisfactorily address
uploade To Telegram channel_https://t.me/Magazines_8890050582(send Me Message telegram ya WhatsApp This number 8890050582)
cases, where the age difference between Court of India noted in September 2022
those problems. the de jure victim and the accused is not that the chilling effect of such a provi-
more than three years, the genuine con- sion prevents adolescents from seeking,
sent of the de jure victim ought to give and medical practitioners from provid-
special courts1 the discretion to award a ing, safe and essential abortion servic-
sentence lower than the prescribed states.3 It has been argued that these deci-
utory mandatory minimum. Whether sions, in conjunction with the high rate
consent is genuine or not is also to be de- of acquittal by special courts in de facto
termined by the special court, based on consensual cases, reflect the judicial
a set of guidelines recommended by the intuition that the POCSO’s approach is
LCI, aimed towards ensuring that the unreasonable (Chaudhary 2021). This
consent was not manipulated, coerced, seems validated by the recent suggestion
or induced through undue influence (LCI of the Chief Justice of India that Parlia-
2023: 116–24). ment ought to reconsider the age of con-
sent in light of these “romantic” cases
Background and Relevance (Chandra 2022).
The issue of the age of consent has con- The interest of the LCI in this issue
tinually been a matter of public debate was a vindication of its public impor-
and concern because of the bright-line tance, and the recommendations of a
approach taken by the POCSO, which body like LCI are likely to have a signifi-
does not account for the fact that older cant persuasive effect on any future pol-
children, or adolescents, can and do en- icy decisions on the subject. Therefore,
Shraddha Chaudhary (sc2086@cam.ac.uk) gage in de facto consensual relation- its report, which aims at providing a so-
teaches at the Jindal Global Law School,
ships, not all of which are abusive or ex- lution to the problem of de facto consen-
O P Jindal Global University, Sonipat and
is a PhD researcher at the Faculty of Law, ploitative. Socially, the emergence of ad- sual cases under POCSO, is topical and
University of Cambridge. Her PhD research olescent sexuality is recognised in India merits comment. The objective of this
is focused on the predicament of de facto through increasing controls over the comment is to critically evaluate the re-
consensual cases under the Protection of dress and movements of girls after pu- port of the LCI with the larger aim of en-
Children from Sexual Offences Act, 2012.
berty (Dube 1988; Chowdhry 2009), as suring that the persuasive value of the
COMMENTARY
LCI’s recommendations is tempered by Similarly, when it comes to early mar-their behalf) against the child. This rais-
its shortcomings. It is argued that the LCI riage, adolescents are channelled intoes more questions than it answers. What
report captures the complexity of the issue marriage not because they have sex butkind of deceit would be relevant here?
before it reasonably well, but its solution Would the special court also need to
because sex is socially sought to be (and
fails to address the problems identified consider the impact of the deceit on the
largely is) contained within marriage in
by it. This, in turn, is because the solu- validity of the child’s consent? If so,
India. Thus, referring to the ubiquity of
tion lacks theoretical coherence and fails what would be the standards involved in
marriage in India, Mary E John (2021: 147)
to consider its practical implications. this, and where would the burden of
argues that marriage is nearly “compul-
proof lie? As discussions in the philo-
sory.” Of course, this does not mean that
Complexity of the Issue sophical literature on criminal law re-
all marriages in India are forced, but it
The LCI report correctly identifies the veal, the impact of deception is not as
does imply that marriage is the only so-
key concern (also the most frequently straightforward as the impact of vio-
cially legitimate space for the expression
raised) with reducing the age of consent, of sexuality in the country. lence on the genuineness of consent
which is that the token of consent given (Pundik 2015; Gibson 2020). Therefore,
The NFHS-4 data suggesting that sex is
by the minor may be used by the accused generally contained within marriage to include a requirement to consider “de-
as a defence in a criminal charge of rape lend weight to this argument.5 Thus, the
ceit” when assessing the genuineness of
or sexual assault. This is because the solution must be aimed at altering thea minor’s consent, without properly con-
consent of the minor would now become sidering these related issues, only com-
social mindset that does not tolerate sex
relevant in law. The claim that a sexual plicates the matter further.
outside marriage, rather than criminally
relationship was “romantic” or de facto punishing those who engage in genuine- The bigger problem, however, is in the
consensual may then be used to mask second part of the LCI’s recommenda-
ly consensual sexual relationships. This,
cases in which the minor is actually being surely, is what child rights activiststion. The report recommends that where
trafficked by their lover or spouse. The mean when they say that the age of con-
the de jure victim is 16 years or older, the
report also captured the practical reality sent for sex and marriage should not be
age difference between the parties is not
that sexual relationships frequently chan- conflated (Dasgupta 2023). more than three years, and the consent
nel minors into life trajectories, such as of the de jure victim is assessed to be
early marriage and pregnancy, which Problem–Solution Mismatch “genuine” as per the guidelines suggest-
might cause or worsen intergenerational There are two main parts to the solution ed, the special court may award a sen-
poverty and underdevelopment. suggested by the LCI report. First, there tence lesser than the mandated mini-
However, as I argue in this article, the ought to be guidelines in place to allow mum sentence in the statute. The first
solution suggested by the LCI does not special courts to assess whether the con- problem with this recommendation is
appropriately address this concern. Fur- sent of the de jure victim was genuine, that it is theoretically incoherent. For
thermore, criminalising de facto con- in that, it was more than just a token in- one, it is not clear what a “lesser” sen-
sensual sexual interactions, especially duced by coercion, pressure, manipula- tence means in this context, given the
where the minor does have the capacity tion or influence. The guidelines sug- wide range it encompasses. In the con-
to consent, is not the appropriate way to gested by the LCI to this end are aimed text of penetrative sexual assault, for in-
prevent early marriage or pregnancy. in the right direction but are not always stance, it could mean anything between
The real cause of early pregnancy is and entirely clear. For instance, one of no imprisonment to imprisonment for
poor information about and use of con- the guidelines requires the special court nine years and 11 months. For another, if
traceptives. The latest National Family to consider whether there has been a the impact of the genuine consent of the
Health Survey-5 (NFHS) data indicate “change in the social or cultural back- de jure victim is to reduce the sentence
that only 58.5% of people (of all ages) in ground of the child indicating an ele- awarded to the accused, this indicates
urban areas and 55.5% in rural areas use ment of manipulation or indoctrination” that the presence or absence of consent
any modern methods of contraception. (LCI 2023: 117, 120). What does this is a mitigating/aggravating factor, rath-
As regards adolescents, a questionnaire- mean? What kind of change should the er than the wrong-making factor in
based study of 375 schoolgoing students special court be looking for? When and these offences. Clearly, this is unsound.
from Wardha district revealed that a how would a change in the social or cul- Offences such as rape and sexual as-
majority of adolescents were unaware of tural background of a child indicate ma- sault (termed penetrative sexual assault
scientific methods of contraception (Jain nipulation or indoctrination? If these and sexual assault under the POCSO) are
et al 2016).4 terms were meant to have a specific defined by either a lack of consent, de-
This problem is better remedied by in- meaning, this meaning is not forthcom- fective consent (say, through violence or
creasing awareness of reliable methods ing in the report. threats), or either assumed or actual in-
of contraception and providing compre- Similarly, another guideline requires capacity to consent (Hurd 1996; Wool-
hensive sex education aimed at destig- the special court to consider whether ard 2019). The POCSO creates statutory
matising and normalising the use of con- there was an element of “deceit” perpe- sexual offences, meaning that it defines
traceptives in schools and universities. trated by the accused (or anyone on offences based not on actual but assumed
COMMENTARY
incapacity to consent, that is why con- criminal law to reflect the widely felt dis- overview of the laws in different coun-
sent is deemed irrelevant within such a tinctions between different kinds of tries, it is not clear on what basis those
law. Once consent is made relevant and wrongs, which in turn is important be- countries are chosen, or how the com-
assessed (as with the recommendation cause the labelling of a criminal offence parison informs the recommendations
of the LCI), it is no longer possible to say determines the moral and social re- of the LCI (if at all it does). To take just
that incapacity to consent is assumed be- sponse to it. If the de jure victim’s con- one example, the discussion of the law
cause when incapacity is assumed, the sent does not impact the guilt or inno- in Japan is limited to the information
question of the genuineness of consent cence of the accused but only their sen- that the age of consent used to be 13 and
cannot arise. It is, always and by defini- tence, the accused would still be guilty has recently been raised to 16. If this
tion, invalid. Therefore, if such incapac- of “penetrative sexual assault” or “sexual piece of information was in some way a
ity is no longer assumed and the fact of assault” against a child, even if they are part of the deliberations of the LCI, the
whether or not consent was validly giv- not sentenced to imprisonment for it. link is unclear in the report. Second,
en is relevant, then its (genuine) pres- This concern is captured by some of the though the LCI mentioned the problems
ence or absence must determine wheth- responses to this recommendation by created by mandatory reporting, includ-
er or not the wrong (which is defined by the LCI (Dasgupta 2023). The moral ing the recent observations of the Supreme
the presence or absence of consent) has weight and social opprobrium of a crimi- Court on the chilling effect created by
been committed, and not merely serve nal offence, which is supposed to reflect it in the context of abortions for minors,
as a mitigating or aggravating factor. In the wrong that is punished by it, would it does not seek to address this problem.
other words, once consent is made rele- therefore fall upon a person who does At the very least, the report could have
vant and its genuineness is determined not deserve it. In other words, POCSO of- recommended an expanded therapeutic
by the special court, it is possible to say fences would no longer be fairly labelled. exception to the provision to allow mi-
either that there was genuine consent Therefore, the recommendation of the nors to seek medical and psychiatric ser-
and therefore no offence was committed LCI is problematic as it fails to appropri- vices, as well as contraceptive advice,
or that there was no genuine consent ately communicate the aim of the crimi- without being drawn into the criminal
and therefore an offence was commit- nal prohibition and it creates scope for justice system.
ted. The assessment of consent, there- the accused to be exposed to undeserved
fore, should underwrite the finding of censure because it does not meet crimi- In Conclusion
guilt or innocence and not the quantum nal law’s fair labelling requirement. The aim of this article was to bring out
of sentence. There are two further problems with the shortcomings of the recommenda-
This theoretical incoherence also has the report of the LCI that deserve mentions of the LCI, so that reference to these
two serious practical effects. First, it cre- tion. First, while the report provides an can be balanced against its limitations.
ates ambiguity in the aim of the law be-
cause it does not appropriately specify EPWRF India Time Series
what the conduct sought to be prohibit- (www.epwrfits.in)
ed and punished is. Usually, offences State Government Receipts and Expenditure
such as rape or sexual assault seek to (CAG Monthly Data)
punish non-consensual sexual interac-
The EPW Research Foundation has added a new sub-module on State Government Receipts
tions, whereas statutory sexual offences and Expenditure (CAG Monthly Data) to the Finances of State Governments module of the
seek to punish the very act of having a EPWRF India Time Series (EPWRFITS) online database.
sexual interaction with a minor, not- This sub-module provides the following monthly key indicators:
● Receipts
withstanding the consent. Thus, the for-  Revenue Receipts: Tax Revenue and Non-Tax Revenue
mer punishes failure to obtain consent  Capital Receipts: Recovery of Loan, Borrowing & Liabilities, and Other Receipts
or to respect lack of consent, whereas ● Expenditures
the latter punishes, on a strict liability  By Heads of Account: Revenue and Capital Account
 By Sector: General, Social and Economic Sector
basis,6 sexual interaction with a minor.  By Plan and Non-Plan (Upto 2016–17)
If the LCI’s recommendations were ac- ● Loans and Advances Disbursed
cepted, offences under the POCSO would ● Surplus/Deficit
 Revenue
no longer be strict liability offences but  Fiscal
would nevertheless punish consensual  Primary
sexual intercourse (although to a lesser This series is available monthly and progressive from April 2008 onwards. It also presents
degree than at present). quarterly and annual series based on monthly data.
The data-sets compiled are sourced from the publications of Comptroller and Auditor General
The second, and related, practical ef- of India (CAG).
fect has to do with what is called “fair EPWRFITS covers a wide range of macroeconomic, financial and social sector indicators
labelling” in the literature on the theory of of the Indian economy.
criminalisation. Andrew Ashworth (2009: For subscription details, visit www.epwrfits.in or write to us at its@epwrf.in
EPWRF India Time Series is an e-ShodhSindhu consortium approved online database.
78) defines this as the requirement for
COMMENTARY
To that end, I argued that though, for the 2 This social normativity is visible from the fact Chowdhry, Prem (2009): Contentious Marriages,
that over time, what was (in colonial India) an Eloping Couples: Gender, Caste and Patriarchy
most part, the LCI correctly identified issue of “child” marriage, that is, the marriage in Northern India, New Delhi: Oxford Universi-
the key problems and contestations of pre-pubertal children, is not predominantly ty Press.
an issue of adolescent marriage.
within the debate around lowering the 3 X v The Principal Secretary, Health and Family Dasgupta, Sravasti (2023): “As Law Commission
Recommends Against Lowering Age of Con-
age of consent, its solutions were not ap- Welfare Department, Govt of NCT of Delhi and sent, Questions on Stigma of Criminalisation
Ors, 2022 SCC OnLine SC 1321 (paragraph 83). Remain,” Wire, https://thewire.in/law/expert-
propriately tailored to the problems. The
4 The study found that only 50.3% of the stu- view-law-commission-lowering-age-of-consent.
suggestion to link the genuine consent dents knew about condoms, 23.5% knew about Dube, Leela (1988): “On the Construction of Gen-
of the de jure victim to the sentence of oral contraceptives, and 10.1% knew of emer- der: Hindu Girls in Patrilineal India,” Economic
gency contraceptives. & Political Weekly, Vol 23, No 18, pp 11–19.
the accused, rather than the guilt or in- 5 Ninety-seven percent women and 89% men Gibson, Matthew (2020): “Deceptive Sexual Rela-
nocence (and therefore, the underlying who were never married had also never had tions: A Theory of Criminal Liability,” Oxford
sexual intercourse. This percentage decreased Journal of Legal Studies, Vol 40, No 1, pp 82–109.
wrongfulness of the conduct) of the ac- with age, as 98% of never-married women Hurd, Heidi (1996): “The Moral Magic of Consent,”
cused, is theoretically incoherent. It also and 96% of never-married men aged 15 to 17 Legal Theory, Vol 2, No 2, pp 121–46.
had never had sexual intercourse, while 95% Jagadeesh, N, Padma Deosthali-Bhate and Sangee-
fails to communicate, with sufficient of never-married women and 81% of never- ta Rege (2017): “Ethical Concerns Related to
clarity, the aim of criminal prohibition married men aged 23–24 had never had sexu- Mandatory Reporting of Sexual Violence,”
al intercourse. Indian Journal of Medical Ethics, Vol 2, No 2,
and is incapable of correctly apportion- 6 Strict liability offences carve an exception
pp 116–20.
ing and assigning moral and social to the rule that a person cannot be punished Jain, Manish, Shuchi Jain, Shubhangi Patil and
for an offence that was not intentional by re- Akash Bang (2016): “A Study on Knowledge At-
blame because it does not meet the re- moving the mens rea (or culpable mental titude and Practice of Contraception in School
quirement of fair labelling. If the con- state) requirement. Going Children in Wardha District in Central
sent of the de jure victim becomes a rele- India,” International Journal of Reproduction,
Contraception, Obstetrics and Gynaecology,
vant fact, and its genuineness is assessed References Vol 3, No 4, pp 903–08.
Ashworth, Andrew (2009): Principles of Criminal
by the special court, this must be done Law, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
John, Mary E (2021): Child Marriage in an Interna-
tional Frame: A Feminist Review from India,
with the purpose of determining the CCL-NLSIU (2018): “An Analysis of Mandatory Re- London: Routledge.
guilt or innocence of the accused. To porting under the POCSO Act and Its Implica-
Lansdown, Gerison (2005): “The Evolving Capaci-
tions on the Rights of Children,” Centre for
that end, the LCI’s suggested parameters ties of Children,” UNICEF, https://www.unicef-
Child and the Law, National Law School of
irc.org/publications/pdf/evolving-eng.pdf.
to assess the genuineness of the de jure India University, Bengaluru, https://feministl-
awarchives.pldindia.org/wp-content/uploads/ LCI (2023): “Age of Consent under the Protection of
victim’s consent are certainly a useful Mandatory-Reporting-Paper-CCL-NLSIU-1.pdf?. Children from Sexual Offences Act, 2012,” htt-
ps://cdnbbsr.s3waas.gov.in/s3ca0daec69b5ad-
starting point. But the ambiguity and Chandra, Jagriti (2022): “Parliament Must Exam- c880fb464895726dbdf/uploads/2023/09/
ine Age of Consent Issue, Says Chief
This PDF was uploade To Telegram channel_https://t.me/Magazines_8890050582(send MeJustice of telegram
Message ya WhatsApp This number 8890050582)
lack of precision in the terms employed India,” Hindu, https://www.thehindu.com/ 20230929466194485.pdf.
news/national/parliament-must-examine-age- Pundik, Amit (2015): “Coercion and Deception in
must be remedied if they are truly to Sexual Relations,” Canadian Journal of Law
of-consent-issue-says-chief-justice-of-india/ar-
serve their purpose. ticle66248216.ece. and Jurisprudence, Vol 28, No 1, pp 97–127.
Chaudhary, Shraddha (2021): “Decriminalising Sen, Samita and Anindita Ghosh (eds) (2021): Love,
Sexual Contact with Minors under POCSO? Labour and Law: Early and Child Marriage in
Notes Notes for a Conversation,” Project 39A Blog, India, New Delhi: Sage Publications.
1 Special courts are courts specifically estab- https://p39ablog.com/2021/11/decriminalis- Woolard, Fiona (2019): “Promiscuity, Paedophilia,
lished or designated for the trial of child abuse ing-sexual-contact-with-minors-under-pocso- Rape, and the Significance of the Sexual,” Pub-
offences under the POCSO Act. notes-for-a-conversation/. lic Affairs Quarterly, Vol 33, No 2, pp 137–58.
Dr Arun Kumar Banerji Fellowship Programme 2024

Applications are invited from students for the Arun Kumar Banerji Fellowship Programme. The fellowship has been named after the
late Dr Arun Kumar Banerji, a well-known economic historian and former Executive Director of the Reserve Bank of India.
The programme has been funded by a generous endowment provided by Usha Banerji.
Under this programme, two students pursuing postgraduate (PG) or doctoral degree in economics or public policy are awarded
summer internship for a period up to three months each, starting from May 2024.
The internship will be at Economic & Political Weekly (EPW), Mumbai. The selected candidate will work under the supervision of a
senior staff member at EPW.
The awardees will be entitled to a stipend of Rs 20,000 each per month. While candidates have to make own arrangements for their
stay in Mumbai, travel expenses will be reimbursed to and fro (by train, 3rd AC).
Interested candidates should send their applications to the Director, EPW Research Foundation, C-212 Akurli Industrial Estate,
Akurli Road, Kandivli (East), Mumbai–400 101 or email to director@epwrf.in, along with a reference letter from the head of the
institution/department where they are studying. Applications should reach by March 15, 2024.
Struggles for Housing societies (Chatterjee 2004) within the
same temporal and spatial context. Partha
in a Democracy Chatterjee has distinguished between the

political society, which has an inherent
political relationship with the state
because of status as subjects and targets
of policy, and the civil society, which is
Anup Tripathi
given equal rights and freedom as they
S
wetha Rao Dhananka’s Housing book reviewS are not dependent on the state and are
and Politics in Urban India: Oppor- not ascribed policy targets (Chatterjee
tunities and Contention provides a Housing and Politics in Urban India: 2004). While deploying Chatterjee’s ar-
nuanced and insightful examination of Opportunities and Contention by Swetha Rao gument, the author prefers to use the term
the complex interplay between housing, Dhananka, Cambridge University Press, 2020; “elite society” for civil society. Political
pp xvi + 232, `446.
politics, and institutions in the urban society organisations are formed by slum-
landscape of Bengaluru. In doing so, this dwellers themselves mobilising on an
book offers valuable insights into the with interviews with slum-dweller issue that directly concerns them, while
housing processes in India. The study communities and government officials elite society organisations mobilise on
asks several pertinent questions within from multiple agencies. The insights behalf of the slum dwellers.
the context of the metropolitan city of described in the book stem from about The book examines the scheme called
Bengaluru: since political and elite society 50 qualitative interviews. “Basic Services to the Urban Poor” (BSUP),
organisations are differently resourced, The author adeptly weaves together which was a component of the Jawaharlal
what existing conditions do they have theoretical frameworks with empirical Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission
to mobilise on the issue of adequate evidence, drawing on a rich tapestry of (JNNURM) 2007–12. According to the
housing? To what extent are political case studies and real-world examples. author, there are two other factors in-
opportunities different for such diversely This approach not only enhances the flicting variation in exploiting political
resourced organisations? Do differential academic rigour of the work but also opportunities and consequently devel-
political opportunities within the formal makes it accessible to a broad readership oping an action repertoire. The first one
polity and informal circuits of corrup- interested in the social and political is the quantity of resources (material,
tion translate into differences in accessi- dimensions of urban housing in India. social skill, and relational) SMOs possess,
bility? Whether the action repertoires The study seeks to capture the lived re- as they determine the type of discourses
of these organisations are sensitive to alities of the urban poor by situating their and stories (at the discursive level) that
political opportunities? To what extent experience of housing within informal relate to the opportunities perceived. The
do the circuits of corruption skew condi- transactions and patronage networks, second is the degree of visible co-optation
tions for mobilising (pp 13–14)? and formal institutional opportunities by state or political forces and their prac-
and closures of the Indian democratic tices, which reproduce entrenched pat-
Methodology set-up. The author has used social move- terns of interaction and, hence, hinder
While answering these questions, the ment theory as a conceptual toolbox to transformative agency.
book seeks to capture the lived experi- examine the favourable or unfavourable This is spelt out by matching the data
ences of the urban poor and civil society contexts for the emergence of a social to claims made by Helmke and Levitsky
organisations claiming adequate housing. movement on the issue of adequate hous- (2006) who have given a framework to
Based on fieldwork conducted between ing for the urban poor in Bengaluru. She understand the formal and informal
2009 and 2010 in Bengaluru, the meth- has delved into the community processes, realms of interaction based on the dif-
odology employs a qualitative research the multilayered and complex worlds of ferential functioning of formal institu-
design. The subsequent visits to the city policy prescription and implementation, tions. They outline four reasons for the
and engagement with the evolution of and the informal practices of negotia- emergence of informality. These include:
the housing discourse in the country tion and political loyalties that affect the the incompleteness of the formal system;
form the core of this book (p 24). Field housing provisions of the urban poor. prescribed formal institutional change
interactions also include informal insti- turning out to be too costly, thus informal
tutions, expert interviews, observations, Framing the Research institutions are created as the “second
and a press review (p 23). The meso-level While serving as a case study of Bengaluru, best option;” formal institutions are weak,
organisational narratives of purposefully the book introduces variation at an or- meaning that rules and procedures are
sampled social movement organisations ganisational level between differently not enforced; and the creation of informal
(SMOs) were gathered through semi-struc- resourced SMOs. This is operationalised institutions to pursue publicly or morally
tured interviews. They were triangulated through the concept of civil and political unacceptable goals. These enumerated
BOOK REVIEW
reasons equally represent the functions behalf of the urban poor while analysing the author submits that an agenda for
of informal institutions, which generally their actions. In her case studies, both research and practice on urban public
coexist with formal ones but create either the elite society organisations seemed to pedagogy is required that equips the
more effective or divergent outcomes. navigate the imperatives of community citizenry to co-envision and co-create
and networks by learning policy on inclusive cities.
Housing Movements and Policies behalf of the urban poor. They veered
There are six chapters in the book. around loopholes in democratic practice In Conclusion
Chapter 1, titled “Claiming Adequate and manoeuvred between the policy Though dated, this work provides valu-
Housing in Urban India: An Introduc- prescriptions and actual practices on able insights into the workings of the
tion,” lays down the context. Chapter 2, the ground (p 123). erstwhile policies of JNNURM and BSUP.
titled “Indian Democracy: Normative Chapter 5, titled “Mobilizations by Verma (2002) argues that almost all
Prescriptions and Everyday Practices,” the Urban Poor,” discusses cases of two the stakeholders have a stake in per-
analytically describes the complex political society organisations. Both petuating slums. The book makes an
conditions to mobilise, while outlining organisations employ contentious tactics, audacious claim that the value of the
the relevant dimensions of the state including protests, road blockades, and political currency of public housing and
and the institutional interactions with invoking the Scheduled Castes and the its implementation is played out in a
informal exchange circuits (p 70). Scheduled Tribes (Prevention of Atroci- way that demobilises and tests the uni-
Based on the definition given by Kriesi ties) Act. These are based on a mediat- ty of the urban poor. Apart from sin-
et al (1995), the author has operation- ing discursive repertoire about slum gling out the urban poor, this argument
alised six dimensions of formal political residents being in pursuit of their citi- undermines their agency as if they are
opportunities. These are the strength zenship entitlements. In contrast to the held hostage by the policy and its im-
of the state gauged through decentrali- elite society organisations, both the po- plementers and forever trapped in the
sation and the separation of powers; litical society organisations sourced networks of political society and civil
political representation and the parlia- their discursive repertoire from the society organisations.
mentary arena; direct-democratic are- particularistic identity of caste (p 150). Additionally, the author has used
nas that represent alternative access Their performative and speculative several concepts to explain the realities
points of the state; political alliances networks were fuelled by informal po- of accessing formal housing. Despite
shedding light on the configuration litical opportunities to engage in infor- the author’s disclaimer and her intent to
of powers; the administrative arena; mal exchange circuits of corruption stay clear of using a singular definition
and the capacity for repression (p 35). and clientelism (p 152). However, that of slums, she gets close to essentialising
Dhananka relates them to the preva- could also trigger informal repression the slums in her analysis. As Herbert
lent informal practices and explores of the urban poor by the political actors Gans remarks, “the term ‘slum’ is an
whether the formal opportunities in- from time to time. evaluative, not an analytic, concept”
teracting with the informal ones facili- In Chapter 6, titled “Claiming Housing (Mayne 2017). Through this book, she
tate or inhibit mobilisations. Despite Indian Politics and Governance,” has aimed to offer a more context-sensi-
In Chapter 3, titled “Governmentality of the author answers three lines of enquiry. tive conceptual toolbox by bringing to-
Housing and the Politics of Access,” the To what extent are the political oppor- gether the social movement scholarship
author has tried to uncover the condi- tunities differential; how do informal with urban studies in the context of the
tions of mobilisation to access public exchange circuits skew conditions for global South.
housing by the urban poor and the elite mobilising; and how the actions of dif-
society organisations on behalf of the ferently resourced civil society organi- Anup Tripathi (anupdu@gmail.com) teaches at
urban poor. The features of the BSUP sations are different? The book discusses FLAME University, Pune.
policy framework are analysed based four emergent themes: (i) formal exclu-
on their openness or closedness to par- sions and informal inclusions: creating References
ticipation, engagement, and contention distrust and inequality; (ii) corruption Chatterjee, P (2004): The Politics of the Governed:
by civil society organisations. Based on mechanisms through formal illegality Reflections on Popular Politics in Most of the
World, New York: Columbia University Press.
the findings, the author calls for “ver- and repressive informality; (iii) the mak-
Helmke, Gretchen and Steven Levitsky (2006):
nacular modes of governance” (p 70) ing of the city and its citizens through Informal Institutions and Democracy: Lessons
that use situational knowledge instead skewed land allocation and housing from Latin America, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins
University Press.
of the World Bank framework of “good opportunities; and (iv) possible task Kriesi, H, R Koopmans, J Wilhelm Duyvendak and
governance” that is technocratic and division between elite and political society M G Giugni (1995): New Social Movements in
Western Europe: A Comparative Analysis,
depoliticising. organisations. For each of these emer- London: University of Minnesota Press.
Chapter 4 is titled “Mobilisation on gent themes, she formulates and dis- Mayne, A (2017): Slums: The History of a Global
Behalf of the Urban Poor.” The author cusses a thesis and attempts to give Injustice, London: Reaktion Books Ltd.
Verma, G D (2002): Slumming India: A Chronicle of
has presented case studies of two elite recommendations for conceptual devel- Slums and Their Saviours, Delhi: Penguin
society organisations that mobilised on opments and sociopolitical inputs. Finally, Books India.
Economic & Political Weekly EPW february 10, 2024 vol lix no 6 29
BOOK REVIEW
guarantee schemes with a universal

How Has MGNREGA Fared? basic income and examine the specific
and quite considerable role that the
MGNREGA played during the COVID-19
Gerry Rodgers pandemic.
The assessment of the impact of
I
ndia’s rural employment guarantee MGNREGA is based on a compilation of
Inclusive Development through Guaranteed
scheme, generally referred to by its Employment: India’s MGNREGA Experiences data from many sources. One impor-
unpronounceable acronym MGNREGA by Ashok Pankaj, Singapore: Springer, 2023; pp 313, $99. tant contribution of this book is to
(Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Em- bring together in one place the results
ployment Guarantee Act), is one of the Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) from a variety of research studies,
largest-ever efforts to systematically as- was passed in 2005 to launch the some using offi cial data, but many in-
sure access to employment through public scheme. Since then, it has been a cen- volving large or small surveys of work-
action. With five crore participating house- tral and critical part of social policy ers and households. These data sources
holds and accounting at its peak for over and of efforts to reduce poverty in make it possible both to get an overall
0.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) and rural areas, surviving both political picture of the programme and its
almost 4% of government expenditure, changes and economic fluctuations. contribution to employment creation
it dwarfs most other policies of this type and to assess its impact through indica-
around the world. Of course, this is not Core Arguments tors that are not generally available in
a new idea. The use of public works pro- Pankaj’s book is a systematic review of large-scale surveys. Some of the mate-
grammes as a means to reduce poverty the fortunes of MGNREGA (the “MG” was rial is anecdotic in nature—the experi-
and unemployment, or to distribute in- added in 2009). He first considers how ence of a household that was able to
comes in times of famine or natural dis- an employment guarantee scheme can expand a fishpond within the MGNREGA
aster, has a long history, in India and help to overcome poverty and exclu- programme, the woman worker who
elsewhere. This policy instrument was sion, considering both direct and indi- could use her MGNREGA income to
widely used both in ancient empires and rect effects. He then discusses the de- construct a toilet in her home, the
during the colonial period. sign of MGNREGA, the underlying no- sarpanch in Uttar Pradesh who found
After independence, it was an impor- tion of entitlement and the ways in that his village was saturated with ba-
tant part of Indira Gandhi’s 20-point which a demand-based employment sic infrastructural facilities—but these
programme to eliminate poverty in the guarantee interacts with local labour anecdotes are useful to illustrate the
early 1970s. Later in that decade, the markets. Several chapters examine the wider mechanisms. There is a great
Maharashtra Employment Guarantee effectiveness of the programme and its deal of information drawn from par-
Scheme changed the underlying premise impact. To begin with, there is the cov- ticular research studies about the net
from one of emergency relief to one of erage of the programme, whether it addition to employment and income,
the right to employment, with the obli- reached the target population, notably the distribution of benefits across dif-
gation of the state to satisfy that right. the poor, lower caste groups and wom- ferent households and different com-
But that too was not new. The notion of en, and the effectiveness of the institu- munities, the pattern of implementation
the right to work has a venerable history. tions for its implementation. That is fol- across different states of the country,
It is a key element of Gandhian philoso- lowed by a review of the observed im- and the effectiveness of MGNREGA in
phy, it is addressed in the Indian Consti- pact on employment and poverty, as limiting migration.
tution, and it is included in the United well as its effects on wages, consump- On the whole, the book offers a very
Nations International Covenant on Eco- tion levels, and education. positive view of MGNREGA, arguing that
nomic, Social and Cultural Rights. Further, he considers the assets creat- it has to a large extent achieved its orig-
This background to the creation of ed through MGNREGA, their nature, their inal objectives of employment creation
MGNREGA is reviewed in Ashok Pankaj’s quality and their character, separating and income generation, has reduced
new book, Inclusive Development through community and individual assets, and vulnerability, had spillover effects on
Guaranteed Employment: India’s MGNREGA discussing how the benefits from these labour conditions more generally, led
Experiences. Although the Maharashtra assets were distributed. Then there is a to empowerment of workers and greater
Employment Guarantee Scheme was review of the implications of MGNREGA grassroots democracy, increased the
reasonably successful, there was no sign for social empowerment, particularly of rate of rural asset creation and more
that it would be extended to the country women and of rural labour more gener- generally made itself an essential part
as a whole until this idea became part ally. Two final chapters sum up the posi- of social policy in India. These positive
of the electoral platform of the Con- tive effects of the programme and some contributions are summarised in the
gress party in the 2004 elections. After of its failings, and identify issues that concluding chapter, alongside some
the victory of the United Progressive need to be addressed better in the future. negatives—employment targets, delays
Alliance (UPA), the National Rural Two annexes compare employment in wages, regional inequality and some
BOOK REVIEW
design flaws. But the overall view is are also suggestions that the MGNREGA associated with other redistributional
clearly positive. has also been used by the central gov- social security instruments, pensions,
ernment as an instrument of pressure on educational grants and subsidies, hous-
Certain Limitations states governed by opposition parties, ing programmes, health programmes,
What more could one hope for from the for instance, delaying allocations; or and promotional programmes for de-
book? It is not very strong on the politi- that it has been used as a vehicle to sup- prived population groups. All of that ex-
cal economy of the programme. How did port other state policies, such as finan- ists in India. But is there an overall strat-
those in favour of such a programme in cial digitalisation or the extension of the egy, rather than an accumulation of his-
the early 2000s manage to convert it Aadhaar card system, even when these torical programmes? In reality, poverty
into a commitment of the new govern- interfered with the operation of the has many dimensions, and an effective
ment? Then, towards the end of the MGNREGA programme. anti-poverty strategy needs different
book, there is a brief discussion of the Another important question about a and complementary instruments for dif-
survival of the programme during the programme, such as MGNREGA is how ferent parts of the problem, and to reach
change of government from the UPA to well it integrates with other government different groups in the population. Part
the Bharatiya Janata Party in 2014, social and redistributional policies. That of the overall assessment of MGNREGA is
when the new government came close to is not the focus of the book, but it is an surely how well it meshes with other
closing down the programme, which important aspect of any overall evalua- measures, and how resources should be
was regarded as a showpiece of the pre- tion of MGNREGA. The nearest the book distributed across different instruments.
vious regime. That it did not do so might comes to an overall assessment is in the But these are quibbles. Overall, this is
merit more attention. Was the number of annex comparing employment guarantee a very useful book because it provides in
beneficiaries so large that they consti- schemes with a universal basic income, one place an abundance of information
tuted an essential voting lobby? Or per- which also briefly considers the impor- on MGNREGA and its impact. It is a pity
haps the benefits of the programme tant role of the public distribution sys- that it is rather expensive. Springer
were just too great for it to be easily shut tem (PDS) in poverty reduction. But in could usefully follow the policy of other
down without an effective alternative. fact, this is a wider issue. The central major publishers by bringing out an edi-
The book also makes some reference to role of the employment guarantee scheme tion that is priced for the Indian market.
attacks on the programme from a varie- in rural areas is not a common policy
ty of sources, financial and ideological, choice around the world; food subsidies Gerry Rodgers (gerry.rodgers@cantab.
but does not develop these further. In and food distribution programmes (like net) is visiting faculty, Institute for Human
the literature and news reports, there the PDS) are much more common, often Development, New Delhi.
BOOK REVIEW
Beyond Invasions deletion and erasure, the “rationalisation

of syllabi” should have considered the
The Trails of the Mughal Presence newer explorations which would help
students think beyond the categories of
in the North East battles and political histories and intro-
duce them to the categories of resilience,
interaction, assimilation, adjustment, and
how empires and kingdoms thrive by
Raj Kumar Thakur finding avenues of networks of trade
and economic interdependence.
I
n April 2023, the National Council of
The Mughals and the North East: Encounter and
Educational Research and Training Assimilation in Medieval India edited by Sajal Nag, A Complex Picture
(NCERT) in India removed some of New Delhi: Manohar Publishers and Distributors, 2023; If we go by contemporary popular
pp 538, `2,695.
the chapters on Mughal history from his- memory, the victory of Lachit Borphukan,
tory textbooks by citing “rationalisation” the Ahom commander over the Mughals
and “revision” as one of the motives. It is presence in the North East. Had the in the battle of Saraighat has metamor-
an irony then, that located far away members of the “rationalisation” com- phosed to such an extent that all other
from Delhi, in January 2023, Sajal Nag mittee of the NCERT read a few chapters intricacies of the presence of Mughals
published a volume on the encounter be- of this book, it might have opened their and their encounters with the people
tween the Mughals and the people living eyes to the various rich and unknown living in the territories located in the
in the eastern frontiers of the Mughals. facets of the Mughal presence in the North East of the Indian subcontinent
The book explores many unknown and North East. The diversity of the materials gets overshadowed. Fuelled by the
fascinating dimensions of the Mughal explored clearly suggests that instead of communal reading of the past, historical
BOOK REVIEW
memory often gets tainted with the po- subcontinent were impacted by the from the point of view of two Dutchmen
litical rhetoric of the present. These presence of the Mughals and were on how Jumla’s campaign unfolded in
constructed memories of victory and organically linked to it. Building on Assam. It is unique for the detailed
defeat and Hinduism versus Islam, diverse literary and oral sources rang- information it provides on the “places,
have for long led to the circulation of ing from Persian and Dutch to local products and people of Assam” (p 74).
the idea that the territories located in dialects, the volume has a collection of Kaushik Roy’s article on naval war-
the North East were an island and the 23 articles that shed light not only on fare sheds light on military technology
people living in there maintained the political encounters but also on the and strategies of war. It shows how Ram
“splendid isolation” by defeating the economic dependence, changes in military Singh, the Mughal commander who led
forces of both the Sultanate dynasty technology, agrarian changes, admin- the expedition against the Ahoms from
and the Mughals. istrative adjustments, and societal and 1667 onwards, lacked naval force. He
However, historical enquiry over the cultural outcomes. preferred the “Rajput culture of warfare,”
years has revealed a more complex pic- Irfan Habib rightly mentions that a that is, cavalry encounters in the lands,
ture. The organic linkages between the closer and more accurate scrutiny of the whereas his predecessor Jumla deployed
kingdoms, tribespeople, and rajahs with Persian and precolonial European liter- both cavalry and naval power (p 186).
both the Sultans of the Sultanate period ate world would help in expanding the By assessing the strategies of warfare,
and the Mughal state are too visible to historical knowledge about the North East Roy shows that while fighting wars in
be ignored. How do we explain the (p 44). The volume rightly initiates this the North East, “cavalry and heavy artil-
discovery of hordes of Mughal–Persian discussion. It shows that even before the lery were mostly irrelevant,” because
coins in the Jaintia territory? Did the advent of Ahoms, the Turkish rulers made the combat in the North East was differ-
Mughal presence end with the battle of attempts to enter the East. While Bengal ent from the combat in the North and
Saraighat? Why were words like darbar, was an integral part of the Mughal empire, the North West of the subcontinent (p 187).
diwan, talukdar, mukhtar, senapati, regions around Cooch Behar and Assam
chaudhuries, parganas, elakas, sarkar, were in and out of the empire. Tripura, Religious and Cultural Linkages
mahals, used by the Chakmas and tribes Cachar, Manipur, Khasi, and Jaintia The cultural linkages of the North East
of Khasi and Jaintia Hills and by Ahoms Hills and Chittagong Hill tracts were with the Sultanate and Mughals are
in administration? Why did the Chakma time and again invaded and were at times further corroborated by how the Sikh
kings take the name Khan as a surname? tributaries of the Mughal state (p 16). gurus and Sufi saints were able to find
Why are there so many Sufi shrines and This thick volume is an attempt to go space in the territories located in the
mosques in the different states of the beyond the populist terrains of political East. The presence of Sikhs in Assam,
North East? Why was Rupai Gariya, a history and, in times to come, will initi- the travels of the Sikh gurus and how
Muslim officer, attached to the royal ate a critical dialogue on selective his- Sikhs who settled down diversified
Ahom arsenal? Why was Bagh Hazarika, torical memory and amnesia. It meticu- their vocations and shifted their ven-
a Muslim captain, fighting under the lously builds the thesis that Muslims tures from warfare to trade is well-at-
leadership of Borphukan? Why did the are “not outsiders” to the territories in tested by Nag. For researchers to come,
Ahom queen Pramatheswari mint coins the North East (p 18). While the Ahoms this will be a domain to explore for un-
in 1729 with a Persian legend? Why was were able to resist the political advances derstanding the dissemination of syn-
an Ahom princess Ramani Gabharu of the Mughals, they failed to resist the cretic ideas in the region. Further re-
married to the Mughal prince Muham- cultural, social, and administrative influ- search on this theme is sure to break
mad Azam who was the third son of ence of the Mughals. the idea that Assam was “insular” and
Aurangzeb? It is only when one moves The chapter on economic aspects of “isolated.” The migration of the army,
away from the binary of Mughals versus forests shows that produce like muga saints, and fakirs, their settlement and
Borphukan that one can grasp the inter- (silk), timber, limestone, aloeswood, wax, dissemination of ideas and how those
linkages, the “shared sovereignty,” “mu- and ivory and animals like elephants ideas impacted the cultivators and di-
tual dependence” and “organic interac- were valued trade items that linked the verse tribes located in the North East is
tions” between the kingdoms located in region with the Mughal empire. The a question worth exploring.
the eastern frontier of the Mughal em- presence of the Dutch and the Portu- In one of the articles, we get details
pire with the Mughals (p 37). guese and their active involvement in of 28 Sufi saints in the medieval period
trade and warfare by working as mer- in Assam. The influence of these Sufi
Beyond Populist Political History cenaries both for the emperor and the saints and their silsilahs in different
The edited volume by Nag titled The Rajahs further erases the idea of isola- parts of Assam, the ways through
Mughals and the North East: Encounter tion of the North East. In this context, which they were able to reach out to
and Assimilation in Medieval India is a Ishrat Alam’s article, which is based on people and build solidarities with
refreshing take on how the kingdoms excerpts from a Dutch account of Mir them, the reasons that the Ahom and
and tribal chiefdoms located in the Jumla’s invasion of Assam, is worth Koch monarchs were able to maintain
north-eastern part of the Indian engaging. It is a first-person narrative an amicable relationship with their
BOOK REVIEW
Sufis and donate lands to them which (p 227), unconsciously goes against the versus “outsider,” which is rhetorically
helped them settle down and practise intended objective of the volume. Such deployed time and again in the different
and preach their beliefs cannot be un- uncritical statements show how contem- states located in the North East, reveal
derstood when one is myopic towards porary sentiments of nationalism and that the contemporary political dis-
historical changes. patriotism can leave a mark on the his- course is selective and exclusionary in
With the Mughals, not only the Dutch torical inquiry of a period that was its objectives.
and the Sikhs, but even the Portuguese devoid of these sentiments. A blend of The book shows that medieval history
were able to find a foothold in the archival, literary, and oral traditions is not just about invasions and war. To
North East. Rangamati, Mariamnagar, would have helped in making some of write a history of war is only one of the
and Bondashil are the places which the chapters denser and more durable, ways and a rather limiting approach
have stories to tell about how a commu- as Roy does. towards historiography. History gets
nity so distinct, which settled down enriched when we explore and go
in the North East, engaged in trade by In Conclusion beyond war to find how societies strive
exploring the river routes, acted as mer- Nonetheless, the edited volume is a bold for peace, heal, adjust, assimilate, and
cenaries, and indulged in warfare and and welcome effort in the domain of rebuild after war. The volume brings
were gradually able to merge and knowledge production. It is a noble out that in some ways our past was
assimilate. Their settlement, as Deepali beginning to understand the “organic more resilient, adjustable, and assimi-
Bhattacharjee shows, gave rise to indig- interaction” between two structures and lating than the contemporary present.
enous Catholicism (p 436). diverse cultures (p 37). The trends of Against the popular common sense and
Mazhar Asif’s article, which is ency- diverse trajectories of migration in the WhatsApp versions of history, away
clopedic in nature, shows the impor- North East during the medieval period from the romanticisation of historical
tance of eight Persian chronicles that help us think beyond wars and fixed bor- figures at the cost of history, this book
could be utilised in writing about the ders. The migration of different groups will serve as a reference point for
history of the North East during the me- and communities in the medieval period future dialogues between the past and
dieval period. These Persian Tazkeras and how the communities were able to the present.
(chronicles) have vivid details on differ- weave, adjust, assimilate, assert, and
ent tribes and communities living in the add colours in the history of the North Raj Kumar Thakur (rajkumar.thakur4@gmail.
geographical terrain of the North East. A East is visibly portrayed in this volume. com) teaches at the Department of History,
critical engagement with the sources The contemporary trends of “indigenous” Assam University, Silchar.
will help researchers in understanding
how and why people and their ways are
mentioned in these texts. It will also
INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES
8-B, Jhalana Institutional Area, Jaipur – 302 004
help in deconstructing the idea of an
“isolated” North East. Advertisement No. A/1/2024
Vacancies for Faculty Positions
Contemporary Sentiments and
Historical Inquiry Institute of Development Studies (IDS), Jaipur, jointly funded by Indian
Despite the richness of articles and the Council of Social Science Research, New Delhi and Government of Rajasthan
sources explored, one of the limita- is an autonomous premier Social Science Research Institute engaged in
tions of the book is that some scholars Multidisciplinary Research. The Institute invites applications for faculty
have not pursued their area with positions at the level of Professor (1) and Assistant Professors (3).
rigour, which is evident from the lack
S.No. Post No. of Posts Category
of a critical approach when they read
01 Professor 01 (One) General
the sources. The volume is indeed a
departure from narratives of battles 02 Assistant Professor 03 (Three) 1 General, 1 OBC, 1 SC
and conquest. There are, however,
UGC Guidelines, 2010 would be applicable as minimum. Details of essential
some chapters that are no exception to
and desirable qualifications and Application Form can be downloaded from
traditional political history.
Institute’s website (www.idsj.org/vacancies). The last date of receipt of
Although Nag attempts to recover
applications is March 08, 2024. Candidates should have multidisciplinary
from the communalisation of history
perspective of social sciences with experience of conducting independent
and give the North East a medieval past,
research and publications in reputed journals. Names of those potential
casual statements in the book by some
candidates, who have not applied for senior faculty position, will also be
scholars like “the massive immigration
considered in absentia by the Selection Committee. The Institute reserves
of the Muslims in Manipur,” (p 395),
the rights to fill up any of the positions or otherwise.
the Ahom princess acting as a “patriot” Director
and serving her “beloved motherland,”
PERSPECTIVES
Narrative of the Golden character and accomplishments in order

to make Indians view history through a
Hindu Period distorted colonial lens. He has accused

the Indian National Congress, which
ruled India for most of the last 75 years,
Misinterpretation of Angus Maddison of echoing some historical European
myths, and of embracing Marxist and
socialist thinkers, who according to him,
Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar hold Hinduism in low regard. He says,
A society should not get obsessed with its
T
Individuals associated with he Sangh Parivar believes that past just for pride. Nevertheless, it becomes
since ancient times, India has inevitable for colonised societies to review
Sangh Parivar often cite Angus
been a great Hindu civilisation, the colonialist version of its history that
Maddison to support their demeans its faith, philosophy, forefathers,
producing the greatest literature, science,
narrative that India’s economic traditions, and economy, and pervades the
and mathematics. It also believes that society’s academic, intellectual and public
past was that of a golden bird. India was the biggest economy in the discourse. The Indian people ought to know
However, this is mere world, and hence it was called a sone whether they have a history of worshipping
ki chidiya (golden bird). Prime Minister poverty as the colonialists had made their
cherry-picking, and when looked elites believe or do they have a tradition of
Narendra Modi has promised to make
at in its entirety, Maddison’s India a golden bird again (Thacker 2018). building prosperity. Modern Western history
has universalized the perception that pros-
findings about India’s past are not In the 11th century, North India was perity building was the preserve of the West.
that flattering. They show that invaded by conquerors, earlier from The rest of the world, particularly Asia, in-
Afghanistan, and later from Uzbekistan, cluding China and India, was ever steeped
the golden Hindu period is
who were Muslim. Subsequently, the in poverty—almost claiming that colonial-
a mere fantasy. British Empire replaced the Mughals as ists had actually improved their lot! (Guru-
murthy
This PDF was uploade To Telegram channel_https://t.me/Magazines_8890050582(send Me Message telegram ya 2013)
WhatsApp This number 8890050582)
the conquerors of India. The Bharatiya
Janata Party and Sangh Parivar in general Back in the 1970s, Indian economist
believe that these foreign conquerors de- Raj Krishna invented the phrase “Hindu
stroyed a great Hindu civilisation and rate of growth” to describe the fact that
converted the world’s biggest economy for 30 years after becoming independent,
into a pygmy. This helps justify its anti- India seemed unable to break out of its
Muslim rhetoric. They say that in the past relatively low 3.5% rate of gross domes-
centuries, Hindus were weak and divid- tic product (GDP) growth. This phrase
ed, and hence they were conquered. Hin- has always angered the Sangh Parivar,
dus must now band together under the which sees this as a slur on Hinduism, in
BJP to regain their earlier glory, it is as- the same tradition as that of colonial
serted. Economic historian Angus Mad- thinkers seeking to demean Indian tra-
dison is often cited to support its narra- ditions. But, says Gurumurthy (2013),
tive that India was the largest economy This colonial theory was proved fake in
in the world in 1 AD. However, this is 1983—exactly five years after Raj Krishna
mere cherry-picking. India’s economic trashed Hinduism for India’s low growth. In
condition, when seen in the entirety of that year Paul Bairoch, a Belgian economist,
Maddison’s work, was far less flattering. came out with his study of the world econo-
my and his findings astounded the West. He
said that in 1750 India’s share of world GDP
India’s Economic Past
was 24.5 percent, China’s 33 percent, but the
One of the most articulate amongst the combined share of Britain and the US was —
Sangh Parivar thinkers is perhaps S Guru- believe it — just two percent. Yes, only two
murthy, editor of the Tamil magazine percent! India’s share, Bairoch found, fell to
Thuglak and co-convener of the Swadeshi 20 percent in 1800; to 18 percent in 1830;
Jagran Manch, the economic wing of and finally crashed to 1.7 percent in 1900.
Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. He Gurumurthy says that to investigate
(swamiaiyar@yahoo.com) is editor emeritus, has been especially scathing about the matter further, the Organisation for
Economic Times, and research fellow at the Western historians, claiming that they Economic Co-operation and Develop-
Cato Institute, United States.
have misrepresented India, demeaning its ment asked Angus Maddison, a famous
PERSPECTIVES
economic historian, to estimate GDP post-1950 era is the independence peri- somewhat better, the British period was
and growth over the last two millennia. od. There is of course some overlap be- better still, and the independence period
About Maddison’s study, Gurumurthy tween these periods. remained incomparably the best. Popu-
(2013) says, lation growth was, however, faster in
His (Maddison’s) study confirmed Bairoch’s Trends in population growth: Maddi- the rest of the world.
study of 150 years and more, as Maddison son shows that India was the world India’s share in world population
studied the entire 2000 years of economic champion in the Hindu period in popu- plummeted over the two millennia. It
history. Maddison showed that India was
lation. The population of India in 1 AD had by far the biggest share during the
the leading economic power of the world
was 75 million, the highest in any re-
from the 1st year of the first millennium till Hindu period, though it declined from
1700 — with 32 percent share of world’s GDPgion, well above China’s 59.6 million or 33.2% in 1 AD to 28.1% by 1000 AD
Western Europe’s 25 million (Table 1).
in the first 1000 years and 28 percent to 24 (Table 2). In the Muslim period, India’s
percent in the second millennium till 1700. However, as is clear from Table 1, India’s share changed only marginally to 27.4
Often, similar views are also expres- population remained roughly unchang- million by 1700. It then fell sharply in
sed from within the Congress party, the ed at 75 million in the thousand years of the British period to 14.2% by 1950. After
main opposition party in India. It is as the Hindu period. So, it can be said that independence, India’s population share
vociferous as the BJP in condemning just staying alive was an achievement in rose modestly again to 16.7% by 2003,
British rule for its role in the decline of this period. The population grew very reflecting faster population growth in-
India’s economic status, even though it little in other regions too. India’s popula- duced by falling death rates.
condemns the BJP’s attempt to rewrite tion rose sharply in the Muslim period, It should be noted here that Britain’s
history books to downplay the Muslim from 75 million in 1000 AD to 165 million population was a tiny 0.8 million in 1 AD
period. Shashi Tharoor, a member of in 1700 AD. The population rose even and 8.6 million in 1700. Remarkably,
parliament from the Congress party, has faster in other regions, notably China. In India with 165 million people in 1700 was
written a best-selling history book, An Era the British period, India’s population conquered by a nation of just 8.6 million
of Darkness: The British Empire in India, rose even more sharply, rising from 165 people (Table 1).
which also cites Maddison profusely million in 1700 to 359 million in 1950.
to prove that British rule impoverished And it rose fastest of all after independ- Trends in GDP: Because of the low level
India. Why, asks Tharoor (2016), did ence, from 359 million in 1950 to 1,049.7 of technology and mechanisation before
India’s share of world GDP drop to 4.2 % million in 2003. Hence, from the view- the industrial revolution, labour was an
by 1950? Because, he says, “India was point of staying alive, the Hindu period extremely important factor in production.
governed for the benefit of Britain. Brit- was the worst, the Muslim period was Thus, having a large population share
ain’s rise for 200 years was financed by
Table 1: Population of Countries from 1 AD to 2003 AD (in million)
its depredations in India.” 1 1000 1500 1700 1820 1870 1913 1950 2003
India 75 75 110 165 209 253 303.7 359 1,049.7
Maddison’s Findings China 59.6 59 103 138 381 358 437 546.8 1,288.4
Maddison came up with the most com- Italy 8 5 10.5 13.3 20.7 27.9 37.2 47.1 57.9
prehensive estimates of world economic Britain 0.8 2 3.9 8.6 21.2 31.4 45.6 50.1 60.1
indicators since 1 AD in his book, Con- Western Europe 25 25.5 57.3 81.5 133.0 187.5 260.9 304.9 394.6
tours of the World Economy, 1−2030 AD. US 0.68 1.3 2.0 1.0 9.9 40.2 97.6 152.3 290.3
Source: Adapted by the author from Table A.1 of Statistical Appendix A (Maddison 2007).
He said these estimates were approxi-
mations and recommended further work Table 2: Share of World Population from 1 AD to 2003 AD (in %)
to refine the data. Nevertheless, aca- 1 1000 1500 1700 1820 1870 1913 1950 2003
demics view it as the best available esti- India 33.2 28.1 25.1 27.4 20.1 19.9 17.0 14.2 16.7
mate. Hence the Sangh Parivar is on China 26.4 22.1 23.5 22.9 36.6 28.1 24.4 21.7 20.5
firm ground in citing Maddison to prove Italy 3.5 1.9 2.4 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.1 1.9 0.9
Britain 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 1.0
that India was once the world’s biggest
Western Europe 11.1 9.6 13.1 13.5 12.8 14.7 14.6 12.1 6.3
economy. But having done so, it can
US 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 1.0 3.2 5.4 6.0 4.6
hardly dismiss other, less flattering, find- Source: Adapted from Table A.3 of Statistical Appendix A (Maddison 2007).
ings of Maddison.
Maddison produced estimates for 10 Table 3: Share of World GDP from 1 AD to 2003 AD (in %)
1 1000 1500 1700 1820 1870 1913 1950 2003
specific years: 1, 1000, 1500, 1600, 1700,
India 32.0 28.1 24.4 24.4 16.0 12.1 7.5 4.2 5.5
1820, 1870, 1913, 1950, and 2003. To fit
China 25.4 22.1 24.9 22.3 32.9 17.1 8.8 4.6 15.1
historical eras into Maddison’s dates, the Italy 6.1 1.9 4.7 3.9 3.2 3.8 3.5 3.1 2.2
period 1−1000 AD can broadly be called Britain 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.9 5.2 9.0 8.2 6.5 3.1
the Hindu period, 1000−1700 AD can be Western Europe 13.7 9.1 17.8 21.9 23.0 33.1 33.0 26.2 19.2
called the Muslim period, 1700−1950 AD US 0.3 0.4 o.3 0.1 1.8 8.9 18.9 27.3 20.6
can be called the British period, and the Source: Adapted from Table A.6 of Statistical Appendix A (Maddison 2007).
PERSPECTIVES
translated into a large GDP share too. In This was still above the rates during the growth accelerated from 1.19% annually
the Hindu period, India had by far the Hindu and Muslim periods. in the last phase of its Indian rule
largest share of the world population After independence, GDP growth (1913−50) to 2.93% in 1950−73 and
(33.2%), and so had the largest share of accelerated dramatically to 3.54% in 2.15% in 1973−2003 (Table 4). So, the
the world GDP too (32%) (Table 3, p 35). 1950−73 and further to 5.20% in end of the empire was good for both the
However, this did not reflect higher 1973−2003 (Table 4). After almost two colony and the coloniser.
prosperity. India’s GDP share was slightly millennia of hardly any growth, Indian
lower than its population share, show- GDP finally took off, growing faster than Trends in per capita income: The world
ing that India was below the world aver- in rich Western countries. per capita GDP was dismal through most
age in productivity. China remained sec- Britain grew faster than India in both of human history, with average living
ond to India till 1700 but thereafter went the Hindu and Muslim periods, and even standards barely above the minimum
ahead. The Roman Empire gave Italy by more so in the British period. It is worth needed for survival. Great civilisations
far the greatest GDP in Europe, with a dividing the British period into an early came up but the benefits were hogged by
global share of 6.1% in 1 AD. The United phase when the East India Company a thin upper crust. The richest part of
States (US) and Britain had shares of just ruled wholly or in part; and a second the world in 1 AD was Italy, where the
0.3% each in 1 AD (Table 3). None could phase (after 1858) when India was ruled Roman Empire enjoyed a per capita in-
have predicted at the time that Britain directly by London. The East India Com- come of $809, almost double the level
would conquer and overtake India in pany phase was marked by loot and elsewhere. Italy crashed to just $450
GDP by 1913 with a global share of 8.2%. plunder (Dalrymple 2019). India’s per by 1000 AD with the fall of the Roman
None could also have predicted that the capita income fell in this phase (Table 5). Empire (Table 5).
US share would zoom to 18.9% by 1913. In the second phase of direct rule from India and China had a per capita in-
India’s GDP share declined gradually London, notions of the white man’s bur- come of just $450 in 1 AD, and this did
in the Muslim era from 28.1% to 24.4%. den replaced the unbridled East India not rise at all by 1000 AD. Thus, the Hin-
This was still higher than the collective Company’s search for money. But even du period was one of poverty and eco-
share of Western Europe (21.9%). But in in this period, says Maddison (2007), nomic stagnation. China fared no better.
the subsequent British period, India’s huge tax revenues were transferred to The US, populated by native Americans,
GDP share collapsed dramatically to just Britain which, if invested in India, could was slightly poorer at $400, and Britain
4.2% by 1950. This is the relative impov- have greatly aided Indian progress. The was just as badly off.
erishment that Indian politicians focus British were reluctant to raise taxes in In the “Muslim period,” India’s per
on. Especially the Hindu nationalists the 20th century for fear of putting wind capita income rose by one-quarter to
stress that India’s GDP share was the into the sails of the independence agita- $550. This was still a pathetically low
highest in a thousand years of Hindu tion. By the end of the British Raj, land level. The mass of peasants was no bet-
rule, it declined over the next 700 years taxes paid by peasants had fallen to ter off but the aristocracy amassed great
of Muslim rule and then crashed during 1% of GDP, from 15% in Mughal times wealth and built magnificent monu-
two and a half centuries of British rule. (Maddison 2007). ments such as the Taj Mahal.
Such a historical narrative changes The empire had ceased to be highly In the early part of British rule till 1820,
dramatically if one shifts from the evolu- exploitative, and its very lack of profita- under the East India Company, India’s
tion of GDP share to the evolution of GDP bility helped induce Britain to gradually per capita income declined to $533 and
growth. In the Hindu period of 1−1000 give up its entire empire. British GDP stayed at that low level till 1870. In the
AD, India’s GDP growth rate was zero,
Table 4: Annual GDP Growth Rates from 1−1000 AD to 1973−2003 AD (in %)
hence, no sign of it being a golden bird 1−1000 1000−1500 1500−1820 1820−70 1870−1913 1913−50 1950−73 1973−2003
was present. Little or no GDP growth was India 0.0 0.12 0.19 0.38 0.97 0.23 3.54 5.20
the sad story in other regions too. In Italy, China 0.0 0.17 0.41 -0.37 0.56 -0.02 4.92 7.34
the decline and fall of the Roman Empire Italy -0.11 0.33 0.21 1.24 1.94 1.49 5.64 2.17
dragged down Western Europe into neg- Britain 0.09 0.25 0.80 2.05 1.90 1.19 2.93 2.15
ative growth (Table 4). Western Europe -0.03 0,28 0.40 1.68 2.11 1.19 4.79 2.19
India’s GDP growth rate rose marginally US 0.06 0.09 0.86 4.20 3.94 2.84 3.93 2.94
Source: Adapted from Table A.5 of Statistical Appendix A (Maddison 2007).
to 0.12% per year in the early Muslim pe-
riod (1000−1500 AD) and 0.19% per year Table 5: Per Capita GDP Trends from 1 AD to 2003 AD (in 1990 US dollars)
1 1000 1500 1700 1820 1870 1913 1950 1973 2003
in the later Muslim period (1500−1820
India 450 450 550 550 533 533 673 619 853 2,160
AD). Under British rule, GDP growth dou-
China 450 450 600 600 600 530 552 448 838 4,803
bled from this very low base to 0.38% per
Italy 809 450 1,100 1,100 1,117 1,499 2,564 3,502 10,634 19,151
year from 1820 to 1870, and to 0.97% per Britain 400 400 714 1,250 1,706 3,190 4,921 6,939 12,025 21,310
year from 1870 to 1913. In the last phase Western Europe 576 427 771 997 1,202 1,960 3,457 4,578 11,417 19,912
of British rule (1913−50 AD), India’s GDP US 400 400 400 527 1,257 2,445 5,301 9,561 16,689 29,037
growth decelerated to 0.23% annually. Source: Adapted from Table A.7 of Statistical Appendix A (Maddison 2007).
PERSPECTIVES
second British phase, India’s per capita Table 6: Annual Growth Rates of Per Capita GDP (in %)
income rose to $673 by 1913, a signifi- 1−1000 1000−1500 1500−1820 1820−70 1870−1913 1913−50 1950−73 1973−2003
cant increase. But it then declined again India 0.00 0.04 -0.01 0.0 0.54 -0.22 1.40 3.14
to $619 by 1950. Overall, India’s per cap- China 0.00 0.06 0.00 -0.25 0.10 -0.56 2.76 5.99
ita income barely rose at all during the Italy -0.06 0.18 0.00 0.59 1.26 0.85 4.95 1.98
British Raj. So much for the notion that Britain 0.00 0.12 0.27 1.26 1.01 0.93 2.42 1.93
Britain bore the white man’s burden in Western Europe -0.03 0.12 0.14 0.98 1.33 0.76 4.05 1.87
order to uplift the savages of the subcon- US 0.00 0.00 0.36 1.34 1.82 1.61 2.45 1.86
Source: Adapted from Table A.8 of Statistical Appendix A (Maddison 2007).
tinent. British per capita income soared
in the colonial period from $1,250 in took off only after independence. It soared have unearthed more than a thousand
1700 to $6,939 in 1950. However, it would to 1.40% annually in 1950−73 and 3.14% Harappan cities. These had town plan-
be wrong to swing to the other extreme, annually in 1973−2003 (Table 6). ning, water supply, drainage systems,
as some Hindu nationalists do, and claim Thus, overall, India’s economic plight handicrafts, and metallurgy. In the
that Britain became rich only through for two millennia was one of stagnation Hindu period, India had great universi-
colonial loot. Britain’s per capita income and stark poverty. Historians may speak ties of global repute, notably Takshashi-
more than tripled to $21,310 in 2003 after of the glories of this or that emperor. la and Nalanda.
shedding its colonies. Hindu historians in India may present Ian Pearce from the University of St
Per capita income in independent India one set of heroes and villains, Muslim Andrews has criticised the Eurocentric
shot up from $619 in 1950 to $2,160 by historians in Pakistan may present a history of mathematics peddled by West-
2003 (Table 5). Throwing off the colonial very different set of heroes and villains, ern historians, neglecting the contribution
yoke undoubtedly helped. But so did and British colonial historians yet another of non-European countries such as India.
buoyant global growth conditions that set. But, regardless of who ruled, the Contrary to Eurocentric belief, scholars
facilitated record GDP growth rates across masses remained desperately poor, close from India, over a period of some 4,500
the world. However, India remains a rel- to subsistence level, and at risk of starva- years, contributed to some of the greatest
atively poor country. In the Hindu peri- tion during every drought. mathematical achievements in the his-
od, it was dirt poor but almost as well off tory of the subject. From the earliest nu-
as any other region save the Roman Em- Beyond Population and GDP merate civilisation of the Indus Valley,
pire. In 2003 India was far richer than GDP alone cannot measure the greatness through the scholars of the 5th to 12th
ever in absolute terms, but its per capita and prosperity of nations. Ancient Greece, centuries who were conversant in arith-
income was one-tenth that of Britain Persia, Egypt, and Mesopotamia had metic, algebra, trigonometry, geometry
and almost one-fifteenth that of the US. great civilisations stretching to 3000 BC. combinatorics and latterly differential
Maddison’s estimates of the growth of Despite the low population and per capi- calculus, Indian scholars led the world in
per capita income make a dismal reading ta GDP, ancient Egyptians built pyramids the field of mathematics. The peak came
for India. In the Hindu period (1−1000 and Abu Simbel. Greek literature, phi- between the 14th and 16th centuries in
AD), the growth of per capita income losophy, and art flourished. So was with the far South, where scholars were the
was zero (Table 6). It was just as bad in India too. The ancient Harappan civili- first to derive infinite series expansions
most other parts of the world. This again sation, earlier called the Indus Valley of trigonometric functions (Pearce nd).
shows that to call this a golden period is civilisation, was older and greater in It is not the attempt here to compare
a fantasy. GDP growth was 0.04% annu- population and area than the ancient civilisational achievements in the Hin-
ally during the “early Muslim period” Egyptian and Mesopotamian civilisa- du, Muslim, and British periods. What is
(1000−1500 AD), representing very lim- tions. This was a pre-Hindu period. The pointed out is that India has much to
ited improvement. The next period esti- script of the Harappan civilisation has boast about its past. But, what is also
mated by Maddison (1500−1820 AD), defied translation, which is why so little equally true is that its economic perfor-
was a mix of late Muslim rule and early is known about it. But archaeologists mance was terrible in the Hindu period,
British rule. Per capita income declined
by 0.01% per year in this period. In the
next period too (1820−70 AD), per capita EPW Index
income stagnated. Matters improved in An author-title index for EPW has been prepared for the years from 1968 to 2012. The PDFs of the
the mid-colonial period (1870−1913) after Index have been uploaded, year-wise, on the EPW website. Visitors can download the Index for
London started ruling India directly, and all the years from the site. (The Index for a few years is yet to be prepared and will be uploaded
per capita income rose at its fastest rate when ready.)
hitherto (0.54% per year). This was still
modest. It then declined in the last phase EPW would like to acknowledge the help of the staff of the library of the Indira Gandhi Institute
of British rule (1913−50) by 0.22% per of Development Research, Mumbai, in preparing the index under a project supported by the
year between 1913 and 1950, the worst RD Tata Trust.
performance in history. Per capita income
PERSPECTIVES
which simply cannot be called golden. Sangh Parivar stalwarts highlight unchanged at 75 million for a thousand
Maddison’s story is a complex one with Maddison’s finding selectively to show that years. Just staying alive was a feat. Sur-
many facets that the Sangh Parivar India’s share of world GDP was 32% in 1 AD, vival became much easier later, with
would rather ignore to present a mis- fell to 24.4% by 1700 AD during Muslim the population expanding to 165 million
construed narrative. rule, and then crashed to 4.2% by 1950 at during the Muslim period, 359 million
the end of the British period. It is said, this in the British period, and 1,049 million
In Conclusion proves that foreign rulers impoverished after independence. In this respect too,
Maddison’s work provides no evidence a once-rich India. But this selective use India’s best period is after independ-
of the thesis that India was a golden bird of statistics hides more than it reveals. ence. We need to acknowledge that con-
of prosperity in the Hindu period, that it India’s high GDP share at the start of ditions today are much better than in
went downhill during the Muslim peri- the Hindu period flowed not from higher the so-called sone ki chidiya period.
od, and was gravely impoverished dur- prosperity but a higher population share.
ing the British period. Instead, Maddi- In 1 AD, India had 33.2% of the world’s References
son’s findings show that GDP per capita population. This translated into 32% of Dalrymple, W (2019): The Anarchy: The East India
in the Hindu period was half that of Italy world GDP. So, India’s per capita income Company, Corporate Violence and the Pillage of
an Empire, New Delhi: Bloomsbury Publishing.
and slightly below the world average. It was slightly below the world average, Gurumurthy, S (2013): “Indian History Is Relevant,
remained unchanged at a shockingly low and surely less than golden. India’s pop- Even for Economists,” Bharata Bharati, htt-
$450 per capita through a thousand ulation share more than halved from ps://bharatabharati.in/2013/04/20/indian-
history-is-relevant-even-for-economists-s-gu-
years of the Hindu period, a performance 33.2% in 1 AD to 14% by 1950, an impor- rumurthy/.
that is so poor that calling it “golden” tant but little advertised reason for the Maddison, A (2007): Contours of the World Eco-
nomy, 1-2030 AD: Essays in Macro-Economic
sounds like mockery. Per capita GDP rose fall in its global GDP share. A much big- History, Oxford University Press.
only modestly to $550 in the Muslim peri- ger reason, however, was the rapid rise Pearce, I G (nd): “Indian Mathematics—Redress-
od. It was still pathetic at $619 at the end in incomes in the West with the indus- ing the Balance,” University of St Andrews,
https://mathshistory.st-andrews.ac.uk/Pro-
of the British period. Great empires rose trial revolution. India did not get poorer jects/Pearce/chapter-20/.
and fell, but living standards stagnated during British rule. But it improved very Thacker, H (2018): “CSR: India—A ‘Sone ki Chidi-
for all, save a thin upper crust for almost little while incomes soared in the West. ya’,” CSR Journal, https://thecsrjournal.in/csr-
india-a-sone-ki-chidiya/.
2,000 years in India. Per capita GDP shot In the Hindu period, life was brutally Tharoor, S (2016): An Era of Darkness: The British Em-
up only after independence in 1950. short. A high death rate kept the population pire in India, New Delhi: Aleph Book Company.
SPECIAL ARTICLE
Governance Matters
The Persistence of Rural-governed Urban Settlements in India
Komal Hiranandani, Arnab K Basu, Nancy H Chau
I
A dual-track system of local governance provides the n a rapidly urbanising India, there is a critical need for local
state governments in India the authority to designate a governance institutions, public resource allocation, and
regulatory reforms to keep pace with the development needs.
rural-governed or an urban-governed status for each
The article explores the consequences of a distinctive and
settlement. Spatially, though, the term “urban” has no understudied, dual-track governance system of designating
universal cut-off. Thus, an urban settlement as defined village or town settlements as either rural- or urban-governed.
by the Indian census may well be designated as The paper traces the constitutional origins of these two modes
of governance, and their organisational and fiscal relationship
rural-governed. But how common are such mismatches
with the states. It then investigates the policy implications
and what are their potential implications in terms of when primarily urban settlements are classified as rural, with
development outcomes? This paper outlines the origins emphasis on the nuanced role of the otherwise canonical
of rural and urban governance forms and provides an measures of urbanisation, and the difference that the rural or
urban governance forms make to the provision of local public
evaluation of how the designation compares in terms
goods with high spillover effects. Finally, the study analyses
of urbanisation indicators and differential allocation the statewide statistics on the conversion of rural-governed
of local public goods. settlements into urban, from 2001 to 2011, with a few remarks
on the factors that may impede or facilitate this conversion.
Constitutional Origins of the Governance Forms

The Constitution in 1950 set up a two-tier system of governance
comprising the union and state governments. The local govern-
ance of the settlements was left for the states to manage. The
states had to address the basic issues of governance structure
consistent with the democratic principles but whether, when
and how these issues were addressed differed across states
(Ghosh 1999).1 Hence, the 73rd and 74th Constitutional Amend-
ments were passed in 1992, to mandate the existence and form of
local governments, requiring all settlements to have either a
rural local body (RLB) or an urban local body (ULB). Proponents
argued that this was necessary to ensure the existence of
viable units of local self-governments for citizens to have equal
access to democratic mechanisms and for the administration of
government programmes, whereby the union government could
connect with the settlements through a uniform pathway and
accountability structure (Chavan et al 2004). However, the
This paper is based on Komal Hiranandani’s Master of Science Constitution did not specify rules by which settlements should
dissertation “Mismatched Governance: Exploring the Relationship be designated as a rural or an urban local body, leaving the
between Rural and Urban Governance Forms and Urban Development
in India” submitted to Cornell University in 2018. The authors thank
decision upon the individual states.2
an anonymous referee for comments and suggestions—specially for A large policy ecosystem comprised governance structures,
alerting us to the parallel literature on agrarian urbanism. programmes, and associated stakeholders came into being fol-
Komal Hiranandani (komal.s.hiranandani@gmail.com) is with Dolce lowing this dual-track local body categorisation. For the RLBs,
Vee, Mumbai. Arnab K Basu (ab362@cornell.edu) and Nancy H Chau the Constitution prescribes a three-tier system of panchayats,
(hyc3@cornell.edu) teach at the Charles H Dyson School of Applied that is, rural local governments, at the settlement, intermediate,
Economics and Management, Cornell University, Ithaca, and district levels. The ULBs do not have such a uniform and
NY, US.
compulsory funnel structure. All states have corresponding
Economic & Political Weekly EPW february 10, 2024 vol lIX no 6 39
SPECIAL ARTICLE
laws further demarcating differences between rural and urban provisions for ward committees at the sub-settlement level
local bodies. For example, in Odisha, the chair of the RLB—the and metropolitan planning committees for the large urban
sarpanch—is appointed through direct election (Orissa Gram settlements and their surrounding RLBs.4 The amendments
Panchayats Act, 1964), whereas for the ULBs, the mayor is ap- also provide for district planning committees, which, if created
pointed through indirect election (Odisha Municipal Corpora- by states, must have ULB representation and aggregated district
tion Act, 2003). Importantly, many government programmes RLB representation. However, representation from all the RLBs
and allocations are available either only to RLBs or ULBs. For in the district planning committees is not mandated. Thus, the
instance, the 2016–17 Union Budget provided `38,500 crore for RLB-governed settlements are the first level of local governance,
the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee over which there are higher levels of governance. The ULBs are
Scheme, which only RLBs are eligible for, and provided `7,205 more independent units. Hence, the way settlement interests
crore for the Smart Cities and Atal Mission for Rejuvenation are represented and dealt with differ prima facie, with ULBs
and Urban Transformation schemes, which only ULBs are eligi- forming more stand-alone and direct governance units.
ble for (Union Budget of India 2016–17). Moreover, while the 73rd and 74th Constitutional Amendments
The categorisation of settlements is further complicated by contain the 11th and 12th Schedules listing the powers, authority,
the fact that there are no globally accepted definitions of the and responsibilities of the local bodies, the enforcement of these
term urban. The Census of India 2001 identifies three main mandates is delegated to the state governments. For example,
types of urban areas. The first type is statutory towns. These RLBs have the mandate to provide drinking water, whereas ULBs
are settlements that are governed as ULBs. The second type is are tasked to provide water supply for domestic, industrial and
the census towns, which are governed as RLBs but are considered commercial purposes. Items listed only for urban and not for rural
by the census as urban. The guidelines prescribed by the Indian local bodies include town planning, slum improvement, public
census to identify census towns are: population size of at least amenities including street lighting, parking lots, and bus stops,
5,000; population density of at least 400 people per square solid waste management, building regulations, and fire services.
kilometre (sq km); and a minimum 75% of the main working The Constitution also enables the states to provide for people who
population engaged in non-agricultural pursuits. However, have special knowledge or experience in municipal administra-
the guidelines are discretionary, and a substantial number of tion to be represented in the ULBs, albeit without voting rights.
settlements satisfy the criteria without being categorised as Two other important distinctions related to the fiscal rela-
census towns and vice versa (Pradhan 2017). The third type of tionships between the states and the local governance bodies,
urban areas are the outgrowths. These are areas contiguous to as imbued in the constitutional amendments and evidenced by
statutory towns or census towns that possess urban features in realised fiscal capacities, bear mention. The language used in
terms of infrastructure and amenities, and form an integrated “Statements of Objects and Reasons” (Chavan et al 2004) of
urban unit along with the respective adjoining areas. All out- the 73rd and 74th Constitutional Amendments conveys the dif-
growths are governed by RLBs. The census categorisation of an fering degree to which financial empowerment or self-suffi-
urban area is widely accepted as being too strict by global ciency was envisaged for RLBs and ULBs. The reasons listed for
standards, and hence is commonly regarded as an undercount considering the constitutional changes to ULBs is to build the
of the true spread of urbanisation across settlements in India relationship between the state government and ULBs on firmer
(Denis et al 2017). footing, with respect to the functions and taxation powers and
While this study uses the census data from 2001 and 2011, arrangements for revenue sharing. However, this priority is
there is a vast literature that uses ethnographic and archival not accorded to the RLBs. Hence, RLBs can be expected to only
records to understand the process of urbanisation in India. receive grants from higher governance levels. Thus, RLBs
Some of the recent works identify this process of urbanisation might be viewed as more beholden to the amounts and pur-
as “agrarian urbanism.” Gururani and Dasgupta (2018) show poses of allocations from state governments. This bears out in
that urban and rural boundaries are entangled in several ways practice as well—ULBs collected total tax revenues estimated to
through the movement of migrants, dispossessed peasants and be 8.5 times than that of RLBs in 2007–08 (Mathur 2011), even
poor tenants. Balakarishnan and Gururani (2021) further argue though the RLBs preside over roughly three times the number
that the spatial categories of rural, urban, suburban, city, town, of people than ULBs do. Thus, ULBs are more widely seen as
or country that are frequently used for analytical purposes are not independent and more active in terms of regulation and man-
always clear and are subject to evolution over time. This fluidity agement of their own resources.
between the spatial categories may have also affected the conver-
sion of rural settlements into ULBs, between 2001 and 2011. Local Public Good Provision
Based on the 2011 Census data, the paper compares the devel-
Organisational and Capacity Differences opment outcomes of the local bodies. The number of indicators
Separate constitutional amendments govern the hierarchy of chosen reflect the actual urbanisation levels at the settlement
development planning and decision-making for the local bodies. level, regardless of designations, and local governance perfor-
Above the settlement level, there are aggregations of RLB rep- mance in terms of public goods provisions. A word of caution,
resentation at the intermediate and district levels popularly however, as the direction of causality between local governance
known as the panchayats.3 The ULBs, on the other hand, have forms and development indicators may well be bidirectional.
40 february 10, 2024 vol lIX no 6 EPW Economic & Political Weekly
SPECIAL ARTICLE
As a first step, it is necessary to identify a universe of settle- growth, but the direct benefits of a household having access
ments that can be referred to as urban in nature. The census to banking facilities are, in the short term, limited to that
categorises all settlements that it deems urban into two types: particular household. There are other studies too that have
the ULB-governed statutory towns and the RLB-governed census discussed differing dynamics of indicators that depend on
towns. As of the 2011 Census, India has 4,041 statutory towns5 their degree of spillover, such as Bloch and Zenginobuz (2007)
and 3,892 census towns.6 The definition of urban used by the and Besley et al (2004, 2012).
union government is too strict and is likely an underestimation Thus, we focus exclusively on the high spillover indicators
of the true urbanisation levels. Other definitions are likely to over other low spillover indicators to highlight the direct
identify a larger number of RLB-governed urban settlements and impact of governance effectiveness. Low spillover develop-
increase the difference in the levels found between both settlement indicators, such as literacy or access to toilets, may be
ment types, since the census definition undercounts smaller more susceptible to population movements driven by reverse
urban settlements as urban (Hiranandani 2018). Hence, if differ- causality. Growth attracts poor migrants who access public
ences are found even when employing this conservative definition services, or because local bodies do not have the capacity to
of what constitutes an urban settlement, one may infer that provide such services for large populations, especially for the
actual differences are likely to be more pronounced. Note also residents in urban slums (Chandramouli 2013).10
that our definition of urban precludes the possibility of mis- The focus on high spillover quasi-public goods does, however,
categorising a rural area being governed as a ULB, since any have limitations. First, these indicators do not reflect quality.
urban local body governed settlement is considered “urban” For example, road length does not capture the width or quality
by definition. of roads. Second, the data on governance status and develop-
Given that the only pan-India settlement level dataset is ment are from the same census year. Hence, if some indicators
available in the census, the selection of variables is driven by react more slowly to changes in governance forms, these
census data availability. Moreover, the study focuses on two changes may not reflect if the conversions occurred close to the
types of indicators: the actual extent of urbanisation at the date of census enumeration. Since data on the dates of declara-
settlement level; and the governance effectiveness through tion of rural or urban local body status were not accessible, the
the provision of local public goods. inferences of this study assumes either no such conversion effects,
To represent the characteristics of urbanisation, the six indi- or that differences exist despite the potentially limited time for
cators considered are: population, density, proportion of work- the changes to manifest. Finally, this study does not separately
force engaged in agriculture or cultivation,7 distance in kilometres consider the changes in the settlement boundary. Accounting
to the nearest city with a population of at least 5,00,000 and for these changes is a subjective exercise, given that they may
1,00,000, and the distance in kilometres to the nearest railway have different effects across areas, and the development dy-
station. The distance to large cities and a railway station indi- namics of the peripheral RLBs incorporated into existing ULBs
cates the degree to which the settlement is part of or accessi- may be different.
ble to a larger urban system and hence influenced by urban
effects (Krishna and Bajpai 2011; Sahoo and Dash 2009). The Results
distance to a city with a population of 5,00,000 or more and The t-test on the equality of means to compare averages of
1,00,000 or more is included because the association of ur- variables between rural- and urban-governed urban settle-
banisation with development may differ depending on the ments is shown in Table 1 (p 42).
extent of urbanisation. Another crucial point needs to be not- Table 1 highlights the average differences in the key indicators
ed here: there appears to be no strong reason to consider only between urban- and rural-governed urban settlements. The
the male workforce to depict urbanisation levels other than ULB-governed urban settlements are more populous and ex-
concerns that the female workforce may be underestimated hibit higher population density than the RLB-governed urban set-
in some areas (Bhagat 2002). tlements. Interestingly, ULBs have a higher proportion of work-
The second category represents local public goods provision, force in agriculture but this dimension does not appear to be
again with six indicators: length of roads per sq km, whether efficiently captured by the states’ decisions of which areas to
the settlement has a fire service, open or closed drainage facilities, govern as urban. Further, ULB-governed urban settlements are
higher education institution,8 water storage capacity in kilolitres further away from large cities and railway stations. Hence, it
per capita, and number of hospital beds per capita.9 Strictly may be the case that state governments convert urban settle-
speaking, these are quasi-public goods, representing amenities ments from RLB to ULB status when there are no large ULBs
that are not purely non-excludable, but in general have high already in the area or when the settlement is not as closely
spillover effects for they can be availed of by a significant connected to other ULBs through railway networks.
proportion of the local population. They should be distin- Second, the analysis reveals that ULB-governed urban
guished from other low spillover indicators such as the pro- settlements outperform their RLB-governed counterparts on
portion of households with water or banking access, which are all measures of high spillover quasi-public good provisions, on
more directly limited to the individual or household. For average, except for the hospital beds where the difference is not
instance, a society in which everyone is in the formal banking significant. They have longer road lengths and greater water
system may form an attractive market that fosters future storage capacity, and a higher proportion of them have fire
SPECIAL ARTICLE
services, drainage, and a higher education institution. These settings, and local power structures (Mukhopadhyay et al
differences are significant at the 1% level, except in the water 2015). Interestingly, Sood (2013) notes that peri-urban growth
storage capacity, which is significant at the 5% level. Interest- hubs that push megacity boundaries outwards have been
ingly, the difference between the lower significance level marked by fragmentation of public service delivery of water,
(water storage capacity) and the difference that is insignificant power and security. Instead, private informal and formal
(hospital beds) are the only ones measured in per capita terms, actors have been the chief drivers of funding of basic services
and hence may be compromised by the census exclusion of the especially in Gurgaon, Navi Mumbai, and Cyberabad.
slum population in RLBs, leading to an overestimation of the Indeed, it is reasonable to assume that the cost-benefit analysis
RLB indicator. Finally, the singular amenity that is not signifi- of local governance form will depend on whether the settlement
cantly different based on governance forms, namely hospital is converting into a stand-alone ULB or is being incorporated into
beds per capita, is influenced by non-government provisions as an existing one. While an existing ULB has the advantage of
compared to more government-dependent indicators like roads, functioning systems, and an integrated urban unit to be managed
water storage, fire services, and drainage. by common leadership, the peripheral areas may experience
Table 1: Differences between Rural Local Body and Urban Local Body integration, identity, and development differently through
Governed Urban Settlements, 2011 incorporation. For instance, a ULB official supported the
RLB Mean ULB Mean Difference t-test
(1) (2) (RLB–ULB) (4)
incorporation of surrounding RLBs into the Pune ULB because
(3) this would enable infrastructure development and curb illegal
Population 13,946.20 79,891.70 -65,945.49*** (10.55) constructions in fringe areas (Jadhav 2012). The residents of
Density (population per sq km) 3,638.60 4,694.83 -1,056.23*** (7.63) the surrounding RLBs also supported the merger because they
Agricultural labour or cultivation 0.13 0.21 -0.09*** (24.25) lacked sufficient water supply, efficient garbage disposal, and
workers
adequate education and medical facilities (Kulkarni 2016).
Distance to nearest 5,00,000+ city 100.07 121.90 -21.83*** (8.62)
However, it was also reported in other instances where many
Distance to nearest 1,00,000+ city 39.83 56.70 -16.86*** (13.47)
residents of RLB-governed Raia opposed the incorporation into
Distance to nearest railway 14.96 21.49 -6.53*** (6.42)
station the RLB-governed Margao because they believed that locals
Road length (length of roads in 4.40 6.61 -2.22*** (10.22) would suffer following such a move (Herald 2013).
km/area in sq km) Despite the pros and cons of conversion, the fact remains that
Fire service (1= firefighting 0.08 0.53 -0.45*** (49.46) for a rapidly urbanising India, the corresponding conversion in
services
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governance has not kept pace. Tandel et al (2019) find that the
Drainage (1= open and/or closed 0.92 0.99 -0.07*** (15.53)
drainage available, 0 otherwise) share of the urban population governed by RLBs increased,
Higher education institution 0.28 0.69 -0.41*** (40.27) from 8% to 16%, between 2001 and 2011, even when applying
(1= higher education institution the relatively strict Indian census definition of the urban.12 For
present, 0 otherwise)
a better mapping of the landscape of local body conversions,
Water storage capacity (total 0.37 2.52 -2.16** (2.06)
water storage capacity in
this study identified new ULB-governed settlements of 2011 that
kilolitres/population) do not include conversions of RLBs into existing ULBs. While the
Hospitals beds (number of 0.001 0.002 -0.001 (0.90) growth of ULB-governed areas also occurs due to the expansion
hospital beds/population) of existing ULB boundaries, given the large growth of inde-
Observations 3,892 4,041 7,933 pendent viable urban settlements recognised by the census itself
*** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1.
Source: Census of India, 2011. through a large number of census towns, our analysis considers
RLBs that were converted to independent ULBs. This is warranted
Settlement Status Conversions since the large urban growth in India cannot be accommodated
In 2016, the union government recommended11 to the state by expansion of existing ULB boundaries alone, and the develop-
governments that they convert the RLBs in urban settlements ment of peripheral areas that are incorporated into existing
into ULBs “for planned and coordinated infrastructure devel- ULBs may have different dynamics altogether.
opment, enhancement of revenues and efficient delivery of
services to citizens leading to overall growth of economic ac- Some Observations
tivities” (Government of India 2016a). However, a substantial The number of new ULBs observed was strikingly low. Between
proportion of settlements that changed their status between 2001 and 2011, the census showed an increase of 241 ULB-
2001 and 2011 were close to the large cities. This perhaps indi- governed settlements, whereas the increase for RLB-governed
cates that the benefits of this status may be visible to areas in urban settlements was 2,531.13 Curiously, the number of new
close proximity, thereby driving more conversions (Hiranandani ULBs in 2011 was relatively small given the rapid pace of ur-
2018). Beyond this, there are no prima facie link between con- banisation (Gururani et al 2021). To ensure that the subse-
versions and state development levels, geographic factors, or quent calculations consider only the new ULBs, the 2011 data
political party affiliations. A recent field study has shown that that matched with the 2001 data are considered. This exercise
the aspirations for the ULB status are not uniform, and that yields 58 settlements that converted from census town to ULB,
perceptions about the trade-offs associated with changing the and 170 settlements converted from RLB to ULB, for a total of
status might be influenced by regional configurations, social 228 new ULBs, across 21 states.14
SPECIAL ARTICLE
The status conversion is unrelated to either the levels of within this range of distance from the state government’s
economic development or political party in power in these administrative headquarters in Mumbai. Mumbai ULB’s area
states. Neither do we find any systematic similarities among itself extends beyond 80 km in length. According to 2011
states without any new ULBs identified. However, most large Census data, around 41% of new ULBs lie within 50 km from
states have at least one new ULB. Moreover, only two of the seven towns with at least 1,00,000 people, and around 58% of them
union territories have a new ULB, potentially because they are lie within 80 km.
smaller geographical units where urban growth is either A more direct investigation of the political economy of
limited, not acknowledged, or accommodated by merging. The conversions can be undertaken by considering the 2001 RLB-
14 states and union territories without new ULBs are Andaman governed urban settlements that switched to ULB status by
and Nicobar Islands, Chandigarh, Daman and Diu, Delhi, Goa, 2011. To identify RLB-governed urban settlements, the study
Himachal Pradesh, Kerala, Lakshadweep, Manipur, Meghalaya, first matched settlements that the census identifies as urban in
Odisha, Sikkim, Tamil Nadu, and Uttarakhand. It could well be nature but are RLB-governed, which switched to ULB status. The
that some of the 13 unmatched new ULBs (from the 241 identified study found 58 such settlements. The study then applied an
by the 2011 Census and the 228 that we are able to match) adapted census definition of urban to identify other settle-
maybe long to some of these 14 states. In the remaining 21 states ments that are urban in nature but that are RLB-governed,
and union territories, the new ULBs identified were between even though the census did not identify these as urban in
1 and 72 (Table 2). New ULBs do not appear to correspond with nature. The adapted census definition used is RLBs with a
the increase in urbanisation levels, and the correlation between population density of at least 5,000 people and minimum 400
the number of new urban local bodies identified and increase in people per sq km, and where at least 75% of workers were not
urbanisation is in fact negative, at -0.1. in agriculture or cultivation. There were 37 such settlements
Pradhan (2017) shows that over 60% of the settlements, the that converted to ULB governance by 2011. This provides a
census newly identified as urban between 2001 and 2011, lie total of 95 such settlements across 18 states, which are listed
beyond the buffer zone of towns with at least 1,00,000 people. (Table 2) except the states of Jammu and Kashmir, Mizoram,
The buffer zone considered is between 10 km and 25 km, and Jharkhand. It was also found that 133 settlements that
depending on the size of the town. Since our analysis does not converted did not fulfill the adapted census guidelines used
consider areas converting to ULB status by merging into the to identify urban areas.
existing ULBs, we consider a larger buffer zone within which Proximity to large cities can play a role in the conversion of
stand-alone urban settlements may exist. To provide an illustrative the status of settlements. Around 42% of new ULBs that were
sense of proximity of new ULBs to the large urban centres, we urban in nature but RLB-governed in 2001, were within 50 km
consider distances of 50 km and 80 km, since several independent from the towns with at least 1,00,000 people and around
urban settlements that arose around Mumbai such as Mira– 60% of them lay within 80 km of such towns. Though settle-
Bhayander, Kalyan–Dombivali, Bhiwandi, and Vasai–Virar, lie ments with at least 1,00,000 people constituted only about
Table 2: States with New Urban Local Bodies 6% of all urban settlements in 2011, a substantial share, be-
State Number of New Urban Percent Urbanisation Increase tween 41% and 58% of them, were within the reasonable
Local Bodies Identified proximity to such settlements. If one also considers the RLB
Andhra Pradesh 15 35.6 areas that converted to ULB status through mergers with
Arunachal Pradesh 26 39.3 existing ULBs, the converted area close to the large urban
Assam 5 27.9 centres would increase substantially. While these results are
Bihar 6 35.4 sensitive to the buffer zone chosen, it appears that those set-
Chhattisgarh 72 41.8 tlements that convert to the ULB status have substantial con-
Dadra and Nagar Haveli 1 218.2 centration around existing large urban settlements. In this
Gujarat 30 36.0
context, Gururani et al (2021) note that according to the 2011
Haryana 2 44.6
Census, the fastest rate of growth occurred at the peripheries
Jammu and Kashmir 6 36.4
of large cities and smaller settlements—notably in the census
Jharkhand 1 32.4
towns and highlights the urban transitions occurring in set-
Karnataka 4 31.5
tlements below 1,00,000 inhabitants, where 40% of India’s
Madhya Pradesh 22 25.7
urban population resides.
Maharashtra 7 23.6
Settlements near the Vasai–Virar ULBs illustrate the dynamics
Mizoram 1 29.7
Nagaland 11 66.6
of how the RLB-governed urban settlements are more likely to
Puducherry 1 31.5
switch to ULB status, when close to the larger cities. Nair (2015)
Punjab 7 25.9 reports that the state government in Maharashtra moved to
Rajasthan 1 29.0 incorporate 53 RLBs into the Vasai–Virar ULB, and this led
Tripura 3 76.2 to protests by villagers reportedly afraid of losing land and
Uttar Pradesh 3 28.8 autonomy. About half of the settlements opposed the incorpo-
West Bengal 4 29.7 ration in court, and finally some of the settlements were
Source: Compiled from Census of India and CityPopulation.de. incorporated, while others were not. Opposition to ULB status
SPECIAL ARTICLE
later lost momentum because the areas that switched to ULB captured by Balakrishnan (2019) who tracks how sugar coopera-
status saw better roads, garbage collection, water supply, and tives in Maharashtra are now being reorganised into real estate
transport services. companies, sometimes with former sugar cane growers as
company shareholders. The study conjectures that the same
In Conclusion caste-based politics that led to the rise of agrarian capitalism is
Higher urbanisation levels increased the likelihood of the RLB- now used to gain entry into a rapidly urbanising India.
governed urban settlements in 2001 converting to ULB status Given the relevance of urban areas for development, it is
by 2011, while higher levels of development indicators did not important to understand how a significant share of urban
seem to systematically impact the conversion likelihood. This settlements came to be governed by the rural local governments
suggests that conversions are likely for more urban areas. instead of urban ones. Significant differences are found between
Beyond this, the same justifications are often used both to average development levels in rural- and urban-governed
support conversion and to oppose it, and actors within and urban settlements with respect to high spillover of quasi-public
outside settlements can drive the propensity to convert in a good provisions. This suggests that the mismatched local
multitude of ways, which makes the assignment of status a governance forms is an important issue to be considered for its
complex exercise (Hiranandani 2018). This complexity is best development consequences.
Notes this process may count relatively small parts of 13 This is according to the number of settlements
1 For instance, in West Bengal, the universal RLB-governed areas as ULB-governed. However, found in this study, verified by government
adult franchise in local elections was intro- since such areas are adjoining the concerned sources. However, even the government sources
duced only in 1962, and relatively regular elec- statutory towns or census towns and form an differ slightly with respect to the number of
tions to local bodies began after 1981, before integrated urban unit, it is reasonable to assume urban settlements. This results in studies dif-
which local bodies such as Kamarhati and spillover effects that should not undermine the fering in figures by a few settlements, usually
Khardah did not have elections for about 14 comparison with stand-alone RLB-governed not more than three. For instance, the Minis-
years. Similarly, in Rajasthan, from around the urban settlements. Counting outgrowths inde- try of Home Affairs, Government of India in
mid-1970s, the democratic process was stalled pendently may also violate non-interference 2011 identified the number of 2001 statutory
across most of the state with even major mu- assumptions because the status of their adjoin- towns as 3,799, but the 2001 Census India
nicipalities, including Jaipur, not having elec- ing settlements would likely have spillover ef- claims this number to be 3,800. See eCENSUS
tions for close to 20 years. fects on outcomes observed in the outgrowths India (2001).
2 The 74th Amendment required all states to pass since they form an integrated urban unit. 14 Settlements were matched through the Census
conformity legislation by 1994. While such legis- 7 These are widely adopted characteristics to of India’s Town Directory and MDDS Code
This lation
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8890050582)
the settlements for ULB governance in some census to aid in the identification of urban set- Citypopulation.de India database is referenced.
states, the actual categorisation has ultimately tlements. While the census only considers male
been at the discretion of the state governments. main working population engaged in non-agri-
3 States with less than 2 million people may skip cultural pursuits, this study considers the References
intermediate-level RLB aggregations. share of total workforce in agriculture or culti-
vation for a holistic sense of the economic pro- Balakrishnan, Sai (2019): “Recombinant Urbanization:
4 ULBs with over 3,00,000 people are required Agrarian–Urban Landed Property and Uneven
file of the settlement.
to make such ward committees, and metropoli- Development in India,” International Journal of
tan planning committees are to be made in ar- 8 Lower education institutions are not considered
Urban and Regional Research, Vol 43, No 4,
eas with a population of over 1 million and because these do seem to have pervaded most
pp 617–32, Doi:10.1111/1468-2427.12790.
those that have been specified as metropolitan urban settlements. In our data set, only 17 urban
settlements do not have a lower education in- Balakrishnan, Sai and Shubhra Gururani (2021):
areas by respective state governors. “New Terrains of Agrarian–Urban Studies:
stitution. Higher education institutions are above
5 The 4,041 statutory towns include roughly 60 Limits and Possibilities,” Urbanisation, Vol 6,
the senior secondary school level. Fifteen insti-
settlement units called cantonment boards, No 1, pp 7–15, Doi: 10.1177/2455747121102084.
tution types are aggregated, such as arts and
which are local bodies administered by the Besley, Timothy, Rohini Pande, Lupin Rahman and
sciences colleges, law colleges, and polytechnic
Ministry of Defence. While cantonment boards Vijayendra Rao (2004): “The Politics of Public
institutes. The number of education institutions
are technically not directly under the 74th Con- Good Provision: Evidence from Indian Local
is not considered because without information
stitutional Amendment, the Indian census con- Governments,” Journal of the European Economic
on the student population of each institution, a
siders these settlements urban and includes them Association, Vol 2, Nos 2/3, pp 416–26.
comparison of the number of institutions may
in their count of statutory towns. Moreover, Besley, Timothy, Rohini Pande and Vijayendra Rao
be misleading.
cantonment boards have been deemed to be ULBs
9 In the 2011 Census we have missing data for any (2012): “Just Rewards? Local Politics and Public
for purposes such as implementing various un-
variable in less than 0.8% of the settlements, apart Resource Allocation in South India,” World
ion government social welfare schemes and taxa-
from distance to the nearest railway station, for Bank Economic Review, Vol 26, No 2, pp 191–216.
tion under the Municipal Taxation Act, 1881 (the
which data is missing for 3.5% of the settlements. Bhagat, R B (2002): “Challenges of Rural-Urban
Cantonments Act, 2006). Thus, we consider can-
tonment boards as statutory towns, especially 10 According to 2011 Census data, the 46 cities Classi fication for Decentralised Governance,”
since we are interested in high-spillover differ- with over 1 million population, representing Economic & Political Weekly, Vol 37, No 25,
ences in public amenities associated with the mis- roughly the top 1% of the most populous ULB- pp 2413–16.
match of urban settlements being governed by governed urban settlements, have roughly 38% Bloch, Francis and Unal Zenginobuz (2007): “The
rural governance forms, and cantonment of India’s slum population, illustrating that Effect of Spillovers on the Provision of Local
boards are not rural governance forms. large urban centres house a disproportionately Public Goods,” Review of Economic Design,
6 In several data sources, outgrowths are count- large share of slums. Such an influence is Vol 11, No 3, pp 199–216.
ed along with their adjoining statutory towns bound to impact average individual well-being Brinkhoff, Thomas: City Population, http://www.
or census towns, and disaggregated figures are measures negatively. citypopulation.de.
not provided for outgrowths. There are 981 11 This directive was in the form of a recommen- Census of India (Provisional) (2001): “Slum Popu-
outgrowths in the 2011 Census (Provisional dation or encouragement, as the union govern- lation-Explanatory Note,” Technical Report,
Population Tools 2011) and they contain less than ment does not have legal authority to ask states Registrar General and Census Commissioner,
1.1% of the total urban population. To allow inte- to take this action. Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India.
gration of the dataset, indicators for out- 12 This calculation considered all of India except Chandramouli, C (2013): “Housing Stock, Amenities
growths are added to their respective statutory for Jammu and Kashmir because the 1991 Census and Census Assets in Slums-Census 2011,” Tech-
towns or census towns in all data sources. Hence, was not carried out there. nical Report, Office of the Registrar General
SPECIAL ARTICLE
and Census Commissioner, Ministry of Home Gururani, Shubhra, Loraine Kennedy and Ashima Mukhopadhyay, Partha, Marie-Helene Zerah and
Affairs, Government of India, New Delhi. Sood (2021): “Engaging the Urban from the Peri- Augustin Maria (2015): “India-Understanding
Chavan, Ranjit, Jatin Modi and Sneha Palnitkar phery,” South Asia Multidisciplinary Academic India’s Urban Frontier: What Is Behind the
(2004): “Research Study on Assessment of the Journal, Vol 26, https//doi.org/10.4000/sa- Emergence of Census Towns in India?” Working
Impact of the 74th Constitutional Amendment maj.7131. Paper AUS 7449, World Bank, Washington, DC.
Act (CAA), 1992 on the Working of Urban Local Gururani, Shubhra and Rajarshi Dasgupta (2018): Nair, Sandhya (2015): “In Vasai’s Villages, Lengthy
Bodies,” Regional Centre for Urban and Environ- “Frontier Urbanism: Urbanisation Beyond Cit- Battle against Urban Tag Loses Steam,” Times
mental Studies (RCUES) of All India Institute ies in South Asia,” Economic & Political Weekly, of India, 5 July.
of Local Self Government(AIILSG), Mumbai. Vol 53, No 12, pp 41–45. Pradhan, K C (2017): “Unacknowledged Urbanisation:
Denis, Eric and Marie-Helene Zerah (eds) (2017): Herald (2013): “Raia to Elicit People’s Opinion on The New Census Towns in India,” Subaltern
Subaltern Urbanisation in India: An Introduction Bifurcation,” November. Urbanisation in India: An Introduction to the
to the Dynamics of Ordinary Towns (Exploring Hiranandani, Komal (2018): “Mismatched Govern- Dynamics of Ordinary Towns, Eric Denis and
Urban Change in South Asia), Springer, India. ance: Exploring the Relationship between Rural Marie-Helene Zerah (eds), Springer, India:
eCENSUS India (2001): “Technical Report,” Office of and Urban Governance Forms and Urban Devel- Exploring Urban Change in South Asia.
the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, opment in India,” MS thesis, Cornell University, Sahoo, Pravakar and Ranjan Kumar Dash (2009):
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Manuscript Report, Institute of Social Sciences, Krishna, Anirudh and Devendra Bajpai (2011): erning India’s Megacities,” Economic & Political
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General and Census Commissioner, Ministry of Kulkarni, Prasad (2016): “Demand for Merger of on the Suitability of the Current Urban Defini-
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Call for Papers

Review of Women’s Studies | Economic & Political Weekly
Transforming Law, State, and Society: Feminist Reflections
Guest Editors: Ritu Dewan, Prabha Kotiswaran,
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The Economic & Political Weekly (EPW) invites articles for the Review of Women’s Studies (RWS) issue to be published on 27 April 2024, which can
offer theoretical, empirical, and/or comparative insights on the theme of “Transforming Law, State, and Society: Feminist Reflections.” The issue
will include submissions to this call as well as solicited articles.
Submission Guidelines:
1. Scope of submission—Original, unpublished papers related to the main theme. Authors are requested to send completed papers and
not just abstracts.
2. Length—Between 4,000 and 6,000 words inclusive of an abstract and references in the EPW style, available at https://www.epw.in/
style-sheet.html.
3. Eligibility—PhD scholars, academics, policymakers, and researchers (independent or affiliated) working on a paper that concerns the
RWS theme.
4. Theme—Law is a site of struggle and change. However, since it is embedded in an intersectional patriarchy, it remains a difficult and treacherous
terrain to traverse. Indian feminists have charted a rich history of advocacy and law-making in various spheres of society, ranging from movements,
advocacy, dialogue, and judicial remedies. How women, individually and collectively, engaged with it and used the available spaces to effect
change is a history that is worth revisiting. This year’s RWS attempts to bring into focus debates, differences of perspectives, and the work that
went into effecting change that has positively impacted the lives of women and other genders. The submissions can be on the following sub-
themes, but not necessarily restricted to these:
i. Advocacy, dialogue, and dissent that went into the making of transformative laws for women and other genders.
ii. Transformative jurisprudence, including movements and interventions focused on equality, non-discrimination, inclusiveness, and
protection of the marginalised.
iii. Shifts in feminist discourses.
iv. The effects of feminist interventions on various social actors, individuals, communities, institutions, processes, and movements.
5. Procedure for submission:
a. Please mention your full name, institutional affiliation, contact details, acknowledgements, and other relevant details on the cover page.
b. All entries must be accompanied by an undertaking that the article has not been submitted to any other journal for publication in any
other form.
c. Send your papers by 27 February 2024 to rws@epw.in as a Microsoft Word document with the email subject being “RWS 2024:
Submission”. Tables and figures, if any, must be editable and attached separately as a Microsoft Excel file.
EPW will notify all successful applicants by 15 March 2024. The decision of the EPW editorial team in this regard will be final.
SPECIAL ARTICLE
Business of Business Is Not Just Business

Lobbying Universe in India
pankaj k p shreyaskar
T
The phenomenal growth of lobbying in India indulged here is adequate circumstantial evidence to infer that
by various corporations, including the most prominent “lobbying” is a taboo word in the Indian public sphere
(Shukla 2015). The overwhelming perception of lobbying
ones, has raised questions about its ethical, social, and
in India is that it interferes with the legal and ethical parameters
political dimensions. These corporations argue that their of a decision-making process. Late Arun Jaitley, the then leader
lobbying activities—as it is done in their Western of the opposition in the Rajya Sabha,1 while participating in a
counterparts—increase transparency in the Indian short-duration discussion on lobbying, stated,
Lobbying is the art of persuading a Government to come to a particular
policy formulations. The paper traces the beginning and
decision. Persuasion is possible on the strength of arguments; persua-
the evolution of lobbying in India and the role of the sion is also possible through collateral considerations.2
institutions in formalising them. It also encapsulates the Gaining political influence in India was once a simple affair—
recent public discourse on lobbying within and outside a suitcase full of cash, in non-sequential notes, exchanged
hands. However, as elsewhere in the developing world, in
the Indian Parliament.
India too, the old business of corruption is meeting a new
rival: the Washington-style business of persuasion, in which
companies garner influence through golf games, plant news
stories, and PowerPoint presentations. As global corporations
woo a billion customers, there are tax breaks and contracts to
be wrested from the Indian officialdom. For this purpose, ex-
perts believe, companies take recourse to the acumen of pro-
fessional lobbyists, who invoke their essential skills to influence,
however, to ensure compliance with several statutes and regu-
lations, like that of the United States (US) Foreign Corrupt
Practices Act (FCPA). Among various provisions of the FCPA,
chief executives may also be imprisoned if they let workers pay
bribes to foreign officials (Giridharadas 2006). In the world of
Oriental wisdom, the idea of lobbying is not espoused warmly.
The paper aims to bring to the fore the sparsely rooted
character, sources, players, and universe of lobbying in India.
In recent years, India witnessed several incidents leading the
researchers to analyse these incidents either as limitations of
the policy instruments or their absence from lobbying
perspectives. This paper intends to capture various shades of
lobbying in the Indian context. The following paragraph con-
textualises the recent Indian phenomenon reinvigorating the
lobbying debate, including in Parliament.
The paper is part of the study conducted by the author during his Nature of Lobbying
research curriculum at the Department of Management Studies and
Industrial Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (Indian School
Is the lobbyist a traitor? Public relations (PR) consultant
of Mines), Dhanbad, India.
Harold Burson does not agree that lobbying is a dirty word
The views expressed here are of the author’s own.
(Seitel 2017). Nick Allard in his 2008 Brooklyn works (Allard
Pankaj K P Shreyaskar (shreyaskarps@gmail.com) is with the Ministry of 2008) argued that lobbying is an honourable profession. The
Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India, reasons why lobbyists have been reviled throughout history
New Delhi.
are legion, including the simple, undeniable fact that in some
SPECIAL ARTICLE
notorious cases, lobbyists got their bad reputations the old- and particularistic and more collective, open and genuinely
fashioned way: they earned it. However, more remarkable than pluralistic” (Kochanek 1995).
the persistent image in the public consciousness of corrupt The structural framework of the lobbying ecosystem is identi-
influence peddlers is that today, while trust in professional fied at two levels. The actors and the instruments that these
lobbyists is particularly low, the number of lobbyists and the actors employ in exercising interest group lobbying activities
level of lobbying activity continue to rise (Allard 2008). Public may be classified as first-order structure (actor) and second-
policy advocacy lobbying answers the question: What should order structure (instruments of lobbying) respectively.
be the law? And that for the right kind of lawyer—a lawyer fasci-
nated by the intersection of law, politics, and client interests— First-order structure: (i) Political players or corporate
this is an extremely attractive line of work, especially because the funding: Corporate lobbying in India, which is largely practised
answer to the question involves achieving a consensus about through political players, had been acrimonious from the very
what is in the public interest. In view of the high stakes involved beginning. Not only had the corporate interest groups lobbied
in public policy advocacy lobbying as well as the impact that it in favour of their causes but also indulged in rival bashing.
can make on various stakeholders, the profession of lobbying Politics today in India is operated with all the necessary ingredi-
is the principled profession (Allard 2008). ents of a service industry. People join politics to serve people.
Like any other service industry, politicians, too, need resources
Recent Indian context: Amid the raging debate about lobby- to run their services for people and, last but not least, to announce
ing in India, two lobbying-related episodes and their nationwide their intent to be parens patriae to their support base. In India,
media coverage have brought the professionally managed the last bit is more important than other democracies of the
lobbying industry in India to the forefront since 2012.3 With world. India, a nation of landlords—large and small; feudalism,
the enactment of the pro-transparency legislation and a long- rechristened semi-feudalism—is an accepted norm even in the
felt emphasis on transparent decision-making processes, there age of information technology (IT). What prevails in social life
is an emerging consensus that lobbyists are now employing in India is that the rich are respected for their ostentatious
“case law-style advocacy” (Malik and Chandramouli 2007) to lifestyle. For the sake of analysing how lobbying has taken
impact policy changes in India. In particular, the Right to shape in India, it is sufficient to say that resources going into
Information (RTI) Act, 2005 requires public authorities4 to satisfy political funding are plain investments. Resources will flow
the elements as prescribed to make extensive public disclosures. into politics till the time the return from such investment is
This includes an obligation to proactively publish procedures higher than the cost. There are two types of returns such
followed by them in decision-making processes, and arrange- investors look forward to. First and foremost is the benefit
ments implemented by them for holding public consultation in accruing on account of decisions taken by the politicians, to them
relation to their policies.5 The possibility of their decisions being for their businesses; the second and less critical is guarantee-
publicly scrutinised has resulted in the bureaucracy insisting ing such investments through the systematised structural frame-
upon legal and technical factual data to support requests for work of the politicians. Such a guarantee of the investment is
administrative decisions (Zaveri 2014). enshrined in the structural and instrumental confluence of the
The distinction between corruption and lobbying was dimin- political construction in India. It appears that any number of
ished to a large extent when the controversy over spectrum sermons can hardly change the scenario.
allocation erupted in India. It was contemplated, however, Earlier, the acceptance of the nexus between corporate–
much later that the professional lobbyists apparently would political players, mostly based on monetary considerations
have played a significant role in the episode so as to benefit was not quite obvious, but now it is not outrightly deniable. In
their patrons. Seemingly, the lobbyist exhorted several instru- one of the recent communications, an Indian industrialist
ments of influence, including various manifestations of quid conceded that he donated to more than one political party in
pro quo in the decision-making processes. The incident raised equal proportions to ensure whoever comes to power favours
a larger issue of ethics and transparency in lobbying. him. Such interplay of money and power, with the sanction of
people at large, becomes detrimental to the clean politics in
Actors of Influence Patronisation in India India (Sachar 2009).
The character and the manifestation of interest group interac- Sachar in his article quoted M C Chagla, the then Chief
tion with the stakeholders in India underwent the whole hog Justice of the Bombay High Court’s warning,
change because of the structural changes in its economic It is our duty to draw the attention of Parliament to the great danger
development model during the late 1980s. The model pushed inherent in permitting companies to make contribution to the funds of
for rapid economic growth, the surge in literacy rate, expanding political parties. It is a danger which may grow apace and which may
citification, and an increasing base of the middle class in India. ultimately overwhelm and even throttle democracy in this country.
The Indian development model transformed from the plan model
to the decentralisation of power and policies. Such a struc- (ii) Law firms: Law firms in India have harnessed the new age
tural framework of the governance model in India thereby opportunities that emerged in the country and engaged in
necessitated the interest group politics to reposition itself; the hefty advocacy at the rule-making level. For example, when
“interest politics have become less individual, patron–client the country’s new takeover regulations were being drafted
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and finalised by the securities regulator in 2011, several law of Small Industries of India (FASII), which represents small-scale
firms made extensively written representations in response to industries; the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO),
the securities regulator’s invitation for feedback on issues such which represents various export promotion bodies; and the
as thresholds that could trigger the obligation of an acquirer to Standing Conference of Public Enterprises (SCOPE), which rep-
make an open offer, minimum size of a mandatory open offer, resents the interests of public sector industry (Kochanek 1995).
etc. Similarly, selected law firms interviewed for ascertaining Globally and historically, the trade associations have played
their role in responding to the steps initiated by the government a crucial role in furthering the cause of trade and industry.
reported giving feedback on the government’s proposed policy. Collectively, such associations have placed the need of business
They also liberalised the multi-brand retail sector in India and before the decision takers and facilitated policies in favour of
engaged in consultation on issues such as the extent of liber- trade and commerce. Those men of trade had been influencing
alisation, conditions to be imposed on the foreign investor, etc. the government’s decision-making processes even when charis-
Often, select law firms have been given personal hearings on matic kings and queens were ruling. Rajan Bharti Mittal, FICCI
proposed and extant policies due to their established practice President of 2010, however, did not like his chamber to be
and experience in certain sectors such as securities and called a lobbying outfit. He told the media that the FICCI was
foreign exchange laws (Zaveri 2014). not a lobby group, and worked only as an “influencer” to engage
Like legislation in most countries, but perhaps more so in the government on policy issues. “We have never been a lobby
India, laws tend to be drafted broadly leaving the details to be group, we are influencers. I do not go and talk about (tinkering
worked out through rules and regulations to be framed by with duties) but wherever the industry gets impacted on policy
bureaucrats and ratified by the legislature. For instance, pri- matters, I think it is the job of chambers to go and engage the
marily, the relevant legislation governing the Indian securities government” (PTI 2010), FICCI’s President told the media imme-
markets deals with establishing the securities regulator and diately after taking over. The fact that lobbying is a dirty word
outlining its powers. The authority to substantively regulate in India might be the reason why Mittal attempted to draw the
the securities markets, including dealings in the markets, thin line playing on nomenclature. On whether the govern-
registration of intermediaries, and all other substantive policy ment should introduce legalised lobbying to get rid of the malice
matters, is delegated to the securities regulator. The securities of informal corporate lobbying, he said, “The government’s job
regulator wields this power by formulating regulations and is- is to be facilitator; that’s why they should do, and if they do
suing orders and rulings. Access to the securities regulator, that there is no room for any lobbyist” (Agency 2010).
therefore, would be crucial for influencing the policy frame-
work governing the Indian securities markets. Due to the (iv) Think tanks: Think tanks have been considered the edu-
widespread impact that a delegated legislation has on business cated voice on behalf of citizens in the practices of govern-
and industry in India, access of law firms to regulators and ment. They are key agencies holding discussions on contempo-
their influence on delegated legislation has had as much of a rary issues of national and international policymaking. Think
policy impact as influencing the primary legislation itself tanks are powerful agents in the policymaking process and
(Zaveri 2014). are sometimes considered institutions of lobbying.
The Indian law firm sector clearly has experienced great India has the widest range of think tanks in South Asia. This
growth since the country liberalised in 1991. The British-based is a legacy partly of the plurality of discourse that characterised
RSG Consultancy brought out its report in 2019 and ranked6 the nationalist movement and partly of the complex range of
the top 50 law firms in India on the basis of satisfaction by problems the postcolonial state faced. According to one esti-
Indian and foreign clients, as well as the views of Indian law- mate,7 approximately 860 think tanks are engaged in social
yers. As per the report, the top 10 law firms have been com- science research, although this is not necessarily of high quality.
pared on the basis of their performance during 2017 and 2019. The think tank trajectory in India goes back to the pre-inde-
pendence era, when a number of such institutions were set up
(iii) Business houses: The fundamental division between to develop an indigenous pool of knowledge to address the needs
foreign and indigenous capital; major cleavages within the of the nation. The Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics
Indian business community based on caste, region, and family; (GIPE), Pune, established in 1930 by the Servants of India Society,
along with the post-independence emphasis on public sector is the oldest research and training institute of economics in the
development have led to the emergence of a multiplicity of country. It is dedicated to researching the socio-economic dimen-
apex organisations representing business and industry in sions of the Indian society and carries forward the legacy of
India. The three most prominent associations representing the Gopal Krishna Gokhale. He founded the Servants of India
private sector in India are the Federation of Indian Chambers Society in 1905 with a view to promote education and developing
of Commerce and Industry (FICCI), the Associated Chambers capabilities among Indians for the governance of the nation after
of Commerce and Industry in India (ASSOCHAM), and the Con- it had attained its political independence. The institute is reg-
federation of Indian Industry (CII). Other apex organisations istered under the Societies Registration Act, 1860 and the
include the All India Manufacturers’ Organisation (AIMO), a Bombay Public Trusts Act, 1950. Over the decades, the institute
largely regional body which mostly represents medium- and has established strong credentials in empirical and analytical
small-scale industries in Mumbai; the Federation of Associations research. In recognition of its contribution to higher learning
SPECIAL ARTICLE
and research in economics, the institute was awarded the status actions in public interest, even though the citizen themself
of institution deemed-to-be-university, in 1993.8 The Indian suffered little or no harm. Ordinary citizens may file petitions
Statistical Institute (ISI),9 one of the most prominent think or claims in a state high court where that state government is
tanks, was established in 1931 in Kolkata by P C Mahalanobis. accused of violating a statutorily or constitutionally protected
Kallas (2009) opines that modern think tanks are acting not right. Similarly, where the central government is charged with
only as thinking actors but also as soft lobbyists. The conver- infringing upon the fundamental rights of an individual, that
gence of delivery is merging with the objectives and roles that person may file a claim in the Supreme Court. The accessibility
we articulate for two different kinds of organisations—think to the apex court by the citizens in India encourages various
tanks and lobbying groups. This shift and addition in role groups, namely social policy activists, civil rights groups, and
demand their registration as lobbying agents to keep the interest non-governmental organisations (NGOs), to bring for their con-
groups’ agenda appropriately in place. sideration issues of larger public interest in the form of PILs.
The subject matters of these petitions may range from civil rights,
Second-order structure: The structural framework of lobby- civil liberties, environmental issues as also women’s rights. The
ing in India has a two-layered entity, namely the actors and pils, as one of the pivotal instruments of soft lobbying, are the
the strategies that they employ. The strategies employed by the outcome of cause lawyering in India (Krishnan 2003).
actors are not chosen randomly but are governed by the inputs
available to them. The state, available resources, and desired Media: What happens when businesses control the dissemina-
outcomes are the three pivotal components of the proposed tion of information (Thakurta 2014)? As articulated in the
strategies of lobbyists, including business associations in India. following paragraph:
The lobbyists tend to employ either inside or outside lobbying The consequence of Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) strengthening its as-
depending on the availability of resources, clout, and policy sociation with Network18 is a clear loss of heterogeneity in the dissemi-
nation of information and opinions. Media plurality in a multicultural
benefits. The actors of Indian lobbying practice either inside
country like India will diminish. In particular, the space for providing
lobbying or outside lobbying, depending on the group type factual information as well as expressing views that are not in favour of
they are addressing and the availability of resources for meet- (or even against the interests of) India’s biggest corporate conglomerate
ing the objective function. There is no clear agreement in the will shrink, not just in the traditional mainstream media (print, televi-
literature as to which of the two strategies is superior to the other. sion, and radio) but in the new media (internet and mobile telephony).
Further, there are no standard rules to suggest as to which of the The free press is expected to uphold society’s civil and political
two strategies would guarantee a favourable outcome. freedom; however, the distribution of information in India is
neither free nor fair. The increasingly oligopolistic nature
Instruments of Lobbying in India emerging in Indian media was studied by Anuradha Bhat-
tacharjee and Anushi Agrawal. The scholarship provides a de-
Public interest litigations: Pressure groups do not stop with tailed analysis of the 12 major media houses in India. They
the politicians. They use public interest litigations (PILs)10 as stress the importance of the media on matters of democratic
well. In February 2008, the country’s apex court observed that choices, caution against corporate interests restricting con-
“Pressure groups using pil to get their way” (TNN 2008). The sumer access to unbiased information, and also argue for
court said that the genetically modified (GM) crops’ field trials greater transparency in the oligopolistic nature of the market
had become an emotional issue in India and that pressure groups (Bhattacharjee and Agrawal 2018).
were the filing in courts. The question before the court was Industrial houses have been investing in media companies
whether or not to permit fresh trials of new gm crops. Incisive and indirectly gaining control over them (Subramanian 2013).
questioning from a Bench headed by the former Chief Justice This reinforces the view that investors are investing in the media
of India, K G Balakrishnan, made petitioner Aruna Rodrigues’ for their access and proximity to power and authority, and
counsel Prashant Bhushan bang the table and walk away in thereby also indulging in lobbying, rent-seeking behaviour—as
desperation. The Bench said it was not an expert body to de- brought out during the telecom and coal allocation scams—
termine the issue. “We are being cynical but it is true that and even attempting to shape political and market information
courts are being used by pressure groups through PILs … There by influencing editorial content. Ninan, in his speech, observed:
was a hue and cry over the permission for commercial cultiva- For the Indian media, it is unquestionably the best of times and it is
tion of Bt Cotton ... what is the reality today: India’s cotton also, unfortunately, the worst of times. We have never seen such a
exports have grown manifold. The noise was probably made flowering of TV channels and such a spreading footprint of newspaper
titles, but the market is more consolidated than ever around the top
by the `4,500 crore pesticides lobby,” the Bench said.11
few players. The quality of what we offer to our public has never been
In India, since the government’s regulatory competencies better but that same public can see that the ethical foundations of our
give it enormous power, misuse of power and authority cannot be actions have plummeted to new depths. (Ninan 2011)
overruled. At times, government policy or inaction may threaten
the environment. In such cases, the application of the tradi- Lobby’s Changed Perspective
tional standing doctrine could preclude citizens from seeking The report in Hindu suggested that business associations and
protection. Thus, the Supreme Court of India has expanded similarly placed sectoral lobbies should invest their time and
the scope of standing enable citizens to challenge government energy in the advancements of issues connected to productive
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socio-economic environmental causes. Two of the major busi- drum up popular support through the media. Then there are
ness associations in India, namely the CII and the FICCI, may consultants, mostly retired bureaucrats. Their modus operandi
definitely put to use their dominance in influencing the deci- has been to use the “old boys” network, have better access
sion-makers for a favourable decision relating to lower tax than employees-lobbyists, and know the law of the land better
rates, safeguarding business interests, and pro business regu- than most. Big corporations also use their professional employees
lations. They should invariably take up issues dealing with the who interact with key bureaucrats, media persons, industry
larger public good (Hindu Report 2002). associations, and politicians. Then there are politicians, members
In India, influencing is a high dividend-yielding business of Parliament (MPs), and senior leaders who use their contacts
today. All one needs is access to the right people and manage to help the interest groups they support. Then there are agents,
the environment through one’s ability to generate helpful reports “a dime a dozen, these are largely fixers and do not have the
in the media. Trade associations which had played an impor- domain knowledge of credibility of other lobbyists. They keep
tant role earlier, too, ended up as a useful accessor. In an age of track of bids, file status, work through lower-level bureaucracy,
market economy, decision takers opted for direct contacts in- and grease palms” (Malik and Chandramouli 2007). Finally,
stead of going through industry bodies. Like Arun Jaitley, the the PR firms are increasingly being used to do more than just
then leader of opposition in Rajya Sabha asked, “What is the PR; such firms offer “back office” support.
willingness of Indian democracy and collectively the Indian The recent public outcry over a professional agency lobbying
political process for applying this kind of structured lobbyists for allocation of the national telecom portfolio to a candidate
to influence the government?”12 The shape of lobbying is the re- favoured by one of its clients has made corporations wary of
sult not merely of the base of the regulation but also of the level of using non-credible “agents” or opaque methods of interacting
transparency with which it is attempted. According to Chan- with governmental agencies (Malik and Chandramouli 2007).
dramouli, lobbying has become a much more sophisticated This culture is particularly evident among foreign enterprises
game that no company can afford to take lightly (Malik and that have invested in the country’s booming economy in the
Chandramouli 2007). The article by Malik and Chandramouli post-liberalisation period. Often bound by anti-bribery statutes
identified the lobbying universe in India. It mentioned that with extraterritorial operations, foreign enterprises largely rely
owners-promoters—from Ratan Tata to Mukesh Ambani to N R on professionals to communicate with governmental agencies.
Narayana Murthy to Azim Premji to Sunil Mittal—everyone has Resultantly, traditional techniques of making financial contribu-
lobbied and will do so for their business empires. The modus options to political parties, using informal political connections,
erandi has been to meet key policymakers personally and grassroots mobilisation, and media coverage to influence policy

SPECIAL ARTICLE
in India are now supplemented with participation in formal preferences over the last five years. Several law firms have
and informal stakeholder consultations held by policymakers, recruited former members of the administration and specific
formal representation before legislative, executive, and regulatory sector regulators. In particular, with the introduction of a new
bodies, and strategically using the judicially activist nature of anti-trust regulator, several Indian law firms are reported to
Indian courts to influence policy. The results of a survey13 that have started their competition law practice by recruiting senior
examined the popularity of various lobbying techniques used staff of the former competition regulatory authority (Zaveri 2014).
in India indicate that providing technical information to the
government was the third most popular lobbying tool after Greater Good Lobbying
financial contribution and public demonstration used by business Lobbying is a tool used to influence the political decision-mak-
interest groups (Yadav 2011). These circumstances, coupled ing process so that the outcome favours the cause the lobbyist
with unprecedented levels of stakeholder inclusion in law and espouses. In economics, public choice theory explains how
policymaking processes, have led stakeholders to develop both political decision-making results in outcomes that conflict with
in-house expertise and resort to financial and legal advisors the preferences of the general public. Special interest lobbyists
for technical expertise and skills to support their endeavours who attempt to influence decisions are actually behaving
in influencing policy and also administrative decisions.14 rationally with a clearly estimated profit motive. They gain
The skills that are fundamental to a lawyer are proving government favours in millions and billions for relatively
transferable to policy roles, such as drafting and knowledge of small investments. They face the risk of losing out to their
the existing legislation and regulations. Many companies are competitors if they do not seek these favours.
looking at candidates with a prerequisite of skills, such as Lobbying has been traditionally articulated as an enterprise
advocacy, the ability to monitor legislative, judicial, and policy of political exchange between private and public interests or a
reforms, suggest amendments, and offer support to take method of exuding power and influence, employed by the pri-
adequate measures to mitigate any risks or negative impact on vate interests, over formal public institutions and authority. In
the organisation. Lawyers are also inherently practised in com- both these models, lobbying is seen as an “outsider’s play” that
municating complex concepts quickly, concisely, and effectively, is solely interested in promoting its self-interest, even at any op-
and can be held to high ethical standards. In a perusal of the portunity cost. The design of regulatory norms, and the conse-
currently available Governmental Advisory for Public Policy quent legal language, simply reproduce this alienated persona
vacancies listed in India, more than half have stated a prefer- of lobbying interests. This has further reinforced the bad repu-
ence for candidates with legal qualifications or experience. A tation and skewed scepticism of lobbying as a policy process.
large number of these positions are also at a senior manage- The constructive function of lobbyists is analogical to the
ment level, indicating that they are not mere support roles but mass media articulation of policy issues through news frames.
are in charge of taking an active governance role. The important distinction being that, in such an enabling system
This trend is relatively recent, in the last three to five years, of the government, lobbyists will always be significantly more
and there is still much work to be done as India does not yet proximate to the political dispensation rather than the mass
have a legal framework that supports lobbying. The National media because of the inherent nature of their roles. But we
Law School of India University (NLSIU), Bengaluru became the must remember that the advanced political economies main-
first law school to start offering a postgraduate course in pub- tain the vibrancy of public discourse by ensuring that there is
lic policy. More than 35% of that first batch of graduates in always a substantive interface between lobbyists and mass
2016 received job offers in the field immediately. Employers media. It is so because mass media is the most appropriate
included large multinational companies and state govern- source to engage with and inform the public at large. Govern-
ments. Just as we saw the changes many years ago that ments employ various mechanisms and strategies to acquire
brought lawyers with specialisations in company secretary information relevant to policy domains, ranging from statutory
(CS), compliance, or management degrees become part of the commissions to expert task forces, etc. Informational lobby-
mainstream, lawyers specialising in policy and ethics will cre- ing, however, is an equally significant source of policy assis-
ate a new generation of legal professionals (Ray 2018). tance to formal governmental institutions. Such informational
The trend of showcasing “policy and government affairs” lobbying might create winners and losers among specialised
expertise is not restricted to self-marketing efforts among law interest groups, but it is potentially beneficial to the overall
firms. Their expertise in the advocacy space has started gain- interest of the political economy in the domains of public good,
ing recognition outside the law firm circle as well. For in- like environmental concerns, public infrastructure, health, educa-
stance, a magazine that surveyed the Indian legal services tion, etc (Lagerlöf 2004). Such constructive and necessary roles of
market introduced a “policy and regulation” award category interest groups as a source of relevant and complex information,
for law firms in 2011. The journal has recognised law firms for or even the democratic requisite of a pluralist approach to public
their capacity to act as “an adviser to policymakers and those decision-making are often ignored as reasons to justify regula-
looking to influence policy,” for their “knowledge of sentiment tion. Instead, for example, the primary rationale of lobby regu-
in the corridors of power,” for “having the ear of the regulator,” lation initiatives in Latin America is the need to tackle corrup-
and similar capabilities. The trend of capacity-building in this tion and promote transparency in order to restore trust in the
practice area also manifests itself in law firms’ recruiting government and reliance on the political system (Santos nd).
SPECIAL ARTICLE
Anu Aga of Thermax said in a cii conference in 2002 that magazine, “Lobbying is fast becoming a professionally man-
“the business of business is not just business.” Business can aged and therefore, an ethical and transparent activity.”
prosper only when the social and political environment is In a democratic system where elections have to be contested,
stable, peaceful, and conducive to the normal functioning of politicians and political parties will need funds. To raise the same,
the economy. In that sense, discussing and trying to shape the they will come to the temptations offered by the lobbyists. What
largest social and economic environment is as much the re- civil societies should attempt to create is a set of rules so that the
sponsibility of a business association as is serving the sectional interest of the majority and that of the state can never be compro-
interest of its members. mised. The US lawmakers have been attempting to do this for
more than 100 years now with some amount of success. This led
In Conclusion to others like the European Union to emulate the same. After the
How has lobbying changed in the course of more than six recent debate on the influence of lobbyists in the Rajya Sabha,
decades of independent India? In its early days, a link with similar legislation might not be far in India. Detractors will argue:
industrialists was viewed as an unpardonable sin. But now “Will it deter the smart lobbyists?” In all probability, it will not, as
some tend to argue that with the entry of professional lobbyists, has been seen in the US. But this cannot be the reason for not en-
the shape of lobbying has changed. “Lobbying has graduated acting the legislation in India. Once enacted, lobbying will not
from ‘suitcase-style’ lobbying to ‘case law-style’ lobbying,” figure as a dirty word not to be mentioned in civil society but as a
as pointed out Dilip Cherian, a partner at a pr firm, Perfect process unavoidable in any legislative procedure. This certainly
Relations to Business Today. Others who supported Cherian, will serve the interest of the majority better than pretending that
like the then lobbyist for Ranbaxy Laboratories, told the dirty waterlogging does not exist.
notes from both public and private law matters. Public Kallas, S (2009): Speech in European Commission
1 The “Council of States” is also known as Rajya law concerns the various rules and regulations Unit Responsible for Administrative Affairs,
Sabha in India. that govern the exercise of power by public Audit and Anti-Fraud.
bodies. Private law concerns those cases in Kochanek, S A (1995): “The Transformation of
2 Parliamentary debate held on 29 April 2010 in
which a public body is not involved, and can Interest Politics in India,” Pacific Affairs, Vol 68,
the Rajya Sabha.
be found in areas such as employment law or No 4, pp 529–50.
3 Audio tapes recording of telephonic conversation family law. PIL is most commonly used to chal-
between a corporate communications agency Krishnan, J K (2003): “Social Policy Advocacy and
lenge the decisions of public authorities by ju- the Role of the Courts in India,” American
and a prominent journalist indicating the former dicial review. Judicial review is a form of court
This as
PDF pushing for the To
was uploade allocation
Telegramof channel_https://t.me/Magazines_8890050582(send
the telecom Me Message Asianya
telegram Review, Vol 21,This
WhatsApp pp 91–124.
number 8890050582)
proceeding in which a judge reviews the law- Lagerlöf, J N M (2004): “Are We Better Off if Our
portfolio of the central cabinet to a candidate
fulness of a decision or action, or a failure to Politicians Have More Information?” Scandinavian
favoured by them. And Walmart’s statutory
act by a public body. Judicial review is con- Journal of Economics, Vol 106, No 1, pp 123–42.
disclosure in the United States of having lobbied
cerned with whether the law has been cor-
the Indian government for enhanced market Malik, A and B Chandramouli (2007): “The New
rectly applied and the right procedures have
access in India have highlighted the increasing Face of Lobbying,” Business Today, 15 July
been followed.
presence of the professional lobbying industry Ninan, T (2011): Indian Media’s Dickensian Age,
in India. This was quoted by Bhargavi Zaveri 11 The Times of India, in its edition dated 14 Febru-
A Nand and Jeet Khemka Distinguished Lec-
(2014). ary 2008 having the title “Pressure Groups
ture, New York, United States, 10 November.
Using PILs to Get Their Way,” quoted the Bench.
4 Public authority means any authority or body PTI (2010): “FICCI Is an Influencer, Not a Lobby
or institution of self-government established or 12 Participating in a debate at Rajya Sabha on
29 April 2010. Group,” Hindu, 8 March.
constituted—(a) by or under the Constitution; Ray, Y (2018): “Increased Opportunities for Policy
(b) by any other law made by Parliament; (c) by 13 The survey conducted during 2005–06 re-
vealed that among the 176 business interest Lawyers in India,” Aquis Search.
any other law made by State Legislature; and
groups surveyed, about 37% used fi nancial Sachar, R (2009): “Clean Politics Demands no
(d) by notification issued or order made by the
contribution, 25% used public demonstration, Corporate Funding to Political Parties,” Main-
appropriate government, and includes any—
22% used technical information, and 16% used stream Weekly, Vol XLVII, No 19, 25 April.
(i) body-owned, controlled, or substantially
financed; (ii) substantially financed NGOs. media coverage as lobbying techniques. Santos, L A D (nd): “Lobby Regulation, Transpar-
14 Dilip Cherian, a self-professed lobbyist based in ency and Democratic Governance in Brazil,”
5 Section 4 of Chapter II of the RTI Act 2005 pro-
New Delhi, stated, “Lobbying is done by people unpublished.
vides for public authorities’ obligation towards
their desired modes of various instruments of from a variety of areas. You have chambers of Seitel, F P (2017): The Practice of Public Relations, 13/e,
dissemination. commerce as lobbyists, and there are lawyers, Essex, England: Pearson Education Limited.
6 RSG ranks Indian Law Firms on the basis of the chartered accountants, retired bureaucrats, and Shukla, A (2015): “That Which Shall Not be Named:
number of lawyers engaged with them as also communications people working as lobbyists …” Questioning the Taboo of Lobbying in the
on the basis of various other aspects, including Indian Polity,” GSTF Journal of Law and Social
the client satisfaction. Top 50 Indian Law Firms Sciences, Vol 4, No 2, pp 12–20.
as rated by RSG is available in their website. REFERENCES Subramanian, N S (2013): “‘RIL Controls Net-
7 As estimated by the National Social Science Agency (2010): “FICCI Not a Lobbyist,” Indian work18 Group Indirectly,’ Says CCI,” Business
Documentation Centre (NASSDOC), a division Express, 8 March. Standard, 24 January.
of the Indian Council of Social Science Re- Allard, N W (2008): “Lobbying Is an Honorable Thakurta, P G (2014): “‘What Future for the Media
search (ICSSR). Profession: The Right to Petition and the Com- in India?’ Reliance Takeover of Network18,”
8 The history of GIPE is available on their website. petition to be Right,” Stanford Law and Policy Economic & Political Weekly, Vol 49, No 25.
9 In 1959, this was given the status of an institute Review, Vol 19, No 1, p 23. TNN (2008): “Pressure Groups Using PILs to Get
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Giridih, Hyderabad, Mumbai, Pune, and pp 48–57. Oxford University Press.
Vadodara. Giridharadas, A (2006): “India’s New Lobbyists Use Zaveri, B (2014): “Notes from the Field: How India’s
10 PIL is the use of the law to advance human American Methods,” New York Times, 18 May. Corporate Law Firms Are Influencing Her
rights and equality, or raise issues of broad Hindu Report (2002): “Beyond Lobbying,” Hindu, Legal, Policy and Regulatory Frameworks,”
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SPECIAL ARTICLE
Volatility in Edible Oil Economy

Issues for Self-sufficiency
Sangeeta Shroff, Deepak Shah, Ramgopal Kundurthi
E
The per capita consumption of edible oils in India has dible oils constitute an important component of food
increased multifold during the last six decades, expenditure in Indian households. Over the years, rising
population, economic growth, standards of living, and
buoyed by the increase in population, incomes, and
preference for processed foods have systematically increased
preference for processed foods. The impact of the the Indian demand for edible oils. The per capita annual
Technology Mission on Oilseeds launched in 1986 to consumption of edible oils has accordingly witnessed sharp
increase production was short-lived as competitive increases from a level of about 3.36 kilograms (kg) in the
1970s to 17.1 kg in the 2010s. There has been an almost seven-
imports increasingly served domestic requirements
fold increase in oilseeds production since independence,
post-liberalisation. In the absence of a stable domestic from 5.16 million tonnes in 1950–51 to 35.95 million tonnes
policy, the oilseeds/edible oils sector was excessively in 2020–21 (GoI 2022a). However, despite the increase in the
dependent on international factors. The disruption of production of oilseeds, the production of edible oils is nowhere
near meeting the continuous growth in per capita consumption.
global supply chains due to the pandemic followed
Attempts to increase the production of oilseeds through
by the Russia–Ukraine war exposed the sector’s technology have been short-lived and this area has also
vulnerabilities, highlighting the need for self-sufficiency ceased to be a source of growth. Hence, the shortfall in con-
in edible oils. The analysis of price volatility in the sector sumption of edible oils is met through imports, which consti-
tute more than half of the total availability. However, exces-
reveals the challenges and policies required for achieving
sive dependence on imports has brought along certain prob-
such self-reliance. lems, such as constant changes in tariff policy to satisfy the
requirements of various stakeholders having different inter-
ests, lack of stable domestic policy, and global supply chain
shocks. Such factors have caused considerable volatility in
oilseed and edible oil markets. The matter becomes signifi-
cant as the demand for edible oils is quite inelastic and any
increase in price will contribute to inflation.
This paper attempts to study the domestic and global volatility
in the oilseed and edible oil sectors and inquires about its reasons.
Considering the rising demand for edible oils, and the renewed
need for self-sufficiency in the face of supply shortages caused
by the COVID-19 pandemic followed by the Russia–Ukraine
war, the challenges and the policies required for achieving
such self-reliance are also examined.
The data used in the paper has been obtained from second-
ary sources, namely the Government of India, Agricultural
Statistics, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Office of the
Economic Adviser (OEA), Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) “Database
on Indian Economy,” Food and Agriculture Organization
(FAO), and International Monetary Fund (IMF). Expert inter-
views were also conducted with the president of the Soybean
Sangeeta Shroff (sangeetashroff@hotmail.com) is at the Vaikunth Processors Association of India and two oil processing com-
Mehta National Institute of Cooperative Management, Pune. Deepak panies to understand their views on revitalising the oilseed
Shah (deepak.shah@gipe.ac.in) and Ramgopal Kundurthi (ramgopal. economy. In addition, about 20 farmers in Latur and Nanded
kundurthi@gmail.com) are at the Gokhale Institute of Politics and districts were also interviewed to understand the problems
Economics, Pune.
concerning the soybean crop.
SPECIAL ARTICLE
Figure 1: Trends in Area and Production of Nine Oilseeds Figure 2: WPI Y-o-Y % Changes—Domestic Oilseeds and Edible Oils
400 60
50
350
Production (lakh tonnes) 40
300 Edible oils group
30 Oilseeds group
Area and production
(%)
250 20
Area (lakh hectare)
200 10
0
150
-10
100 -20
4/1995
2/1996
8/1998
6/1999
4/2000
2/2001
8/2003
6/2004
4/2005
2/2006
8/2008
6/2009
4/2010
2/2011
8/2013
6/2014
4/2015
2/2016
8/2018
6/2019
4/2020
2/2021
12/1996
10/1997
12/2001
10/2002
12/2006
10/2007
12/2011
10/2012
12/2016
10/2017
12/2021
50
0 Month and year

1950–51
1952–53
1954–55
1956–57
1958–59
1960–61
1962–63
1964–65
1966–67
1968–69
1970–71
1972–73
1974–75
1976–77
1978–79
1980–81
1982–83
1984–85
1986–87
1988–89
1990–91
1992–93
1994–95
1996–97
1998–99
2000–01
2002–03
2004–05
2006–07
2008–09
2010–11
2012–13
2014–15
2016–17
2018–19
2020–21
Source: Authors’ calculations; data from OEA.
Source: GoI (2022a).

face of strong growth in demand, this meant resorting to
imports to cover the shortfall. Table 2 provides the domestic
Trends in Oilseeds Production production of edible oils and the level of imports.
As compared to strong growth in per capita consumption of Given the shortfall in production, India is largely dependent on
edible oils, the domestic production of oilseeds has registered imports to satisfy the demand for edible oils. The imports were
a very slow growth. For long periods, both the area under cul- also driven by competitive global prices. The drop in domestic
tivation as well as production have gone up slowly and, in production since 2014–15 appears to have been driven by the
some periods, have fallen sharply. (See Figure 1 for long-term decline in the area allocated for the production of oilseeds.
trends in the production and area under cultivation of nine This, in turn, was caused by low global prices, which resulted
important oilseeds.) in a downward pressure on domestic prices, leading to higher
We find that the area under cultivation of oilseeds has bare- imports in these years. Even after recovering from such setbacks,
ly increased since 1994. The production of oilseeds registered the quantum and proportion of imports has remained high.
a significant fall of 28% from 2001–02 to 2002–03 mainly due Table 2: Domestic Production of Edible Oils and Imports (million tonnes)
to a fall in yield by 32.2% while the production declined by Year Domestic Production Imports Total Availability Imports as % of
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Availability
16% from 2013–14 to 2014–15 due to a fall in area by 9%. Post
2005–06 8.32 4.29 12.61 34.02
the 2015–16 season, the production of oilseeds has shown a
2006–07 7.37 4.72 12.09 39.04
recovery but the overall picture is not satisfactory. 2007–08 8.65 5.61 14.26 39.34
The oilseed economy of the country comprises nine oilseeds, 2008–09 8.45 8.18 16.63 49.19
namely groundnut, castor seed, sesamum, rapeseed and mus- 2009–10 7.95 8.82 16.77 52.59
tard, linseed, soybean, sunflower, niger seed, and safflower. 2010–11 9.78 7.24 17.02 42.54
The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in area, production 2011–12 8.96 9.94 18.90 52.60
and yield of oilseeds indicated in Table 1 shows that only during 2012–13 9.22 10.60 19.82 53.48
1980–81 to 1989–90, was there a substantial increase in the 2013–14 10.08 10.98 21.06 52.14
production of oilseeds with both area and yield showing rela- 2014–15 8.98 12.73 21.71 58.64
2015–16 8.63 14.85 23.48 63.24
tively higher growth rates. Perhaps, the Technology Mission
2016–17 10.09 15.32 25.41 60.29
on Oilseeds launched in 1986 played a role in improving pro- 2017–18 10.38 14.59 24.97 58.43
duction through an increase in both area and yield. Such mo- 2018–19 10.35 15.57 25.92 60.07
mentum seems to have been lost after the trade reforms and 2019–20 10.66 13.41 24.07 55.71
availability of cheaper imports, as the growth in area, yield, 2020–21 11.31 13.53 24.84 54.47
and production since have all been nominal. Source: GoI (2011, 2022d).
Low growth in the domestic production of oilseeds directly

translates to low growth in the production of edible oils. In the Price Volatility Concerns
Table 1: Long-term CAGRs in Oilseeds An analysis of year-on-year (y-o-y) percentage changes in the
Year Area Production Productivity monthly wholesale price index (WPI) for oilseeds and edible
1950–51 to 1959–60 2.96 2.70 -0.26 oils for the period 1995–2022 (backspliced over the base year
1960–61 to 1969–70 0.81 1.14 0.32 2012) shows very high volatility in prices. The long-term price
1970–71 to 1979–80 0.20 -1.07 -1.27 movements in the oilseed and edible oil sectors are indicated in
1980–81 to 1989–90 2.92 6.79 3.77
Figure 2 and for three major oilseeds—groundnut, rapeseed-
1990–91 to 1999–2000 0.05 1.20 1.14
mustard, and soybean—the price movements are provided in
2000–01 to 2009–10 1.47 3.38 1.88
2010–11 to 2019–20 -0.03 0.25 0.29
Figure 3 (p 55).
1950–51 to 2019–20 1.35 2.74 1.36 The price changes in both domestic oilseeds and edible oils
1980–81 to 2019–20 1.12 3.30 2.16 exhibit a very high volatility. Price volatility in oilseeds, ranging
Source: Authors’ calculations; data source GoI (2022a). from –20% up to +50% on a y-o-y basis prima facie appears to
SPECIAL ARTICLE
Figure 3: WPI Y-o-Y % Changes in Major Oilseeds in India Figure 4a: Annual Average % Changes—WPI vs Global/FAO-Oilseeds
90
49
Global / FAO-oilseeds
39
70 WPI-oilseeds
29
50 19
(%)
(%)
9
(%)
30
-1
10
-11
-10
-21
-30 -31
4/1995
4/1996
4/1997
4/1998
4/1999
4/2000
4/2001
4/2002
4/2003
4/2004
4/2005
4/2006
4/2007
4/2008
4/2009
4/2010
4/2011
4/2012
4/2013
4/2014
4/2015
4/2016
4/2017
4/2018
4/2019
4/2020
4/2021
3/1996
3/1997
3/1998
3/1999
3/2000
3/2001
3/2002
3/2003
3/2004
3/2005
3/2006
3/2007
3/2008
3/2009
3/2010
3/2011
3/2012
3/2013
3/2014
3/2015
3/2016
3/2017
3/2018
3/2019
3/2020
3/2021
3/2022
Groundnut Rape and mustard
Rape&Mustard Soybean
Source: Authors’ calculations; data from OEA. Figure 4b: Annual Average % Changes—WPI vs Global/FAO-Edible Oils
be a strong reason for the vagaries in the Indian oilseed 55
market. Within the overall complex of the domestic oilseed 45 WPI-edible oils
Global / FAO-veg oils
sector, the picture is worse when it comes to the price dynam- 35
25
ics of individual commodities, particularly soybean. While
15
groundnut and rapeseed-mustard seem to have volatility com- 5
(%)
parable to the overall complex, soybean has exhibited huge -5
price changes ranging from –30% up to a staggering +119%. -15
In order to smoothen the seasonal variations, the WPI data -25
(backspliced over the base year 2012) was averaged over the -35
-45
months and the annual averages were compared to the annual
3/1996
3/1997
3/1998
3/1999
3/2000
3/2001
3/2002
3/2003
3/2004
3/2005
3/2006
3/2007
3/2008
3/2009
3/2010
3/2011
3/2012
3/2013
3/2014
3/2015
3/2016
3/2017
3/2018
3/2019
3/2020
3/2021
3/2022
averages of the comparable global data (from FAO, the base
year 2014–15) and presented in Figures 4a and 4b. The sum-
WPI-Edible Oils Global / FAO- Veg Oils
mary statistics of the annual data is presented in Table 3.
Source: Authors’ calculations; data from OEA, FAO.
Table 3: Summary Statistics of Domestic vs Global Price Averages, 1996–2022
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Figure 5: Global telegram
Production Indicesya WhatsApp This number
of Oilseeds—Annual 8890050582)
% Changes
WPI-oilseeds Global-oilseeds WPI-edible Oils Global-vegetable Oils
30
Mean 6.74 4.50 5.41 5.67
25
Median 5.84 1.96 5.04 2.48
20
Std deviation 9.80 17.71 10.80 23.99
15
Range 42.98 65.45 46.80 98.84
10
Minimum -9.98 -21.37 -15.20 -33.06
5
Maximum 33.01 44.08 31.61 65.77
Source: Calculations from backspliced WPI indices over the base year 2012; data from OEA 0
and FAO. -5
Figures 4a and 4b clearly establish that domestic volatility is -10

not merely a seasonal feature, but also cyclical over a broad -15
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
two- to three-year frame. In terms of actual volatility, the annual
data showed a range between -10% to +33% for oilseeds and Groundnut Rapeseed Soybean
Source: Authors’ calculations; data from OEA.
-15% to +31% for edible oils as against an intra-annual range
of -14% to +54% for oilseeds and -20% to +52% for edible oils strong in the global scenario. An important reason for the global
(Figure 2). While the annual volatility is expectedly lower, the volatility since 2003 appears to be the high volume of liquidity
overall volatility is still very high with a standard deviation of coming from hedge fund activity seeking alternate investments.
9.8 for oilseeds and 10.8 for edible oils. The clear cyclical pattern Active trading markets in metals, energy, and agriculture
exhibited reflects a cobweb phenomenon in Indian agriculture. helped channel these investments. It was estimated that spec-
The same is also observed in the production data as shown in ulative investments in commodity indices went up from $15
Figure 1 and Table 2 above. billion in 2003 to $200 billion in 2008 (Henn 2011). Similarly,
Another interesting feature that emerges when compared “… assets allocated to commodity index replication trading
with the global price variations depicted above (Table 3) is strategies have grown from $13 billion in 2003 to $317 billion
that the global mean of price changes in oilseeds is lower than in July 2008” and “… prices of these 25 commodities skyrock-
the domestic mean albeit comparable to that of edible oils. The eted by an average of more than 200% from July 2003 to July
standard deviations (and the ranges) in the global indices are 2008” (Masters and White 2008: 1, 14). Though a large part of
however very high for both oilseeds and edible oils. A look at the this was directed to metals and energy products, certain agri-
annual percentage changes in the production indices of select cultural products also attracted large investments (Masters
oilseeds (Figure 5) suggests that the cyclical pattern is also and White 2008).
SPECIAL ARTICLE
Figure 6: Global Prices of Edible Oils ($ per tonne) Figure 8: Annual % Changes in Price Index of Sunflower Oil—Global and
Domestic (WPI)
1,850
160
1,650 140
Sunflower oil
1,450 120
100
1,250 % changes global
80
(%)
1,050 60
Soy oil WPI % changes
850 40
20
650
0
450 -20
Palm oil
250 -40
3/1996
3/1997
3/1998
3/1999
3/2000
3/2001
3/2002
3/2003
3/2004
3/2005
3/2006
3/2007
3/2008
3/2009
3/2010
3/2011
3/2012
3/2013
3/2014
3/2015
3/2016
3/2017
3/2018
3/2019
3/2020
3/2021
3/2022
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Source: IMF. Source: Authors’ calculations; data from OEA, IMF.
Figure 7: Annual % Changes in Soybean Oil Price Index—Global and Figure 9: Annual % Changes in Palm Oil Price Index—Global and
Domestic (WPI) Domestic (WPI)
85
80
% changes global price % changes global
65
WPI % changes 60
45 40
WPI % changes
(%)
25
(%)
20
5 0
-15 -20
-35 -40
3/1996
3/1997
3/1998
3/1999
3/2000
3/2001
3/2002
3/2003
3/2004
3/2005
3/2006
3/2007
3/2008
3/2009
3/2010
3/2011
3/2012
3/2013
3/2014
3/2015
3/2016
3/2017
3/2018
3/2019
3/2020
3/2021
3/2022
3/1996
3/1997
3/1998
3/1999
3/2000
3/2001
3/2002
3/2003
3/2004
3/2005
3/2006
3/2007
3/2008
3/2009
3/2010
3/2011
3/2012
3/2013
3/2014
3/2015
3/2016
3/2017
3/2018
3/2019
3/2020
3/2021
3/2022
Source: Authors’ calculations; data from OEA, IMF.
Source: Authors’ calculations; data from OEA, IMF.
Imports and Global Factors prices in Figure 6. At the aggregate level, the global edible oil
Since the domestic production of oilseeds and consequently prices exhibited much higher volatility than the Indian scenario
edible oils is way short of the consumption trends, imports (Table 3). A summary check of the major edible oils that India
have become inevitable to fill the gap (Table 2). The major im- imports exhibits a similar phenomenon (Figures 7, 8, and 9,
ports have been in three commodities: palm oil, soybean oil, and Table 5).
and sunflower oil, as shown in Table 4. Table 5: Summary Statistics of Domestic and Global Price Changes for Major
Edible Oils, 1996–2022
Table 4: India’s Import of Major Edible Oils, 2013–14 to 2018–19 (million tonnes)
Soybean Oil Sunflower Oil Palm Oil
Year Soybean Oil Sunflower Oil Palm Oil Others Total
WPI % Global % WPI % Global % WPI % Global %
Crude Refined Change Change Change Change Change Change
2016–17 3.316 2.169 2.871 6.335 0.386 15.077 Mean 5.78 5.36 4.95 8.22 3.28 6.67
2017–18 3.047 2.525 2.136 6.46 0.346 14.514 Median 1.86 -1.42 3.77 -1.88 1.53 4.93
2018–19 3.094 2.351 2.731 6.534 0.203 14.913 Std deviation 14.95 24.97 11.18 38.04 10.83 27.49
Range 64.35 115.67 46.89 190.20 53.33 109.69
2019–20 3.384 2.519 0.421 6.666 0.185 13.175
Minimum -23.14 -30.60 -19.35 -38.49 -18.22 -37.27
2020–21 2.866 1.894 0.686 7.491 0.195 13.132
Maximum 41.21 85.07 27.54 151.71 35.11 72.42
Source: SEA (2022).
Source: Calculations from backspliced WPI indices over the base year 2012; data from OEA
and IMF.
Palm oil has accounted for about 60% of the imports. In the
past few decades, palm oil has grown in consumption consider- As can be expected from the levels of imports, international
ably because of the substitution effects it has with other oils and prices have been normally lower than domestic prices
the easy availability of cheap imports from neighbouring (Figures 10 and 11, p 57). During the third quarter of 2021, the
Indonesia and Malaysia, which together account for 84% of the domestic price of soybean was 125% more than the inter-
global palm oil production. This would mean that apart from national price, leading to a corrective reduction in tariffs by
the vagaries of production, which cause domestic oilseed price the government and a sharp increase in imports.
fluctuation, global price volatility also affects the domestic
prices of both edible oils through imports and oilseeds as well. Impact of Interventions
The per acre productive capacity of palm fruit is much higher As demonstrated above, the domestic edible oil sector is
than that of soybean and, thus, palm oil is cheaper than soy oil subject to considerable fluctuations in terms of production
by about 20%–30%. This can be observed from the average global and, therefore, prices. Interventions in the form of fixation of
SPECIAL ARTICLE
Figure 10: Domestic and International Prices of Soybean Oil, 2017–21 Figure 12: Percentage Change of MSP (Y-o-Y) and Production (lakh tonnes)
9,000 of Soybean
35 160
8,000
30 140
7,000 Soybean MSP
6,000 120
25
Soy production (RHS)
5,000 100
`/ Qtl
Domestic International 20
4,000 80
3,000 15
60
2,000 10
40
1,000
5 20
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 0 0
1990–91
1991–92
1992–93
1993–94
1994–95
1995–96
1996–97
1997–98
2003–04
1998–99
1999–00
2000–01
2001–02
2002–03
2004–05
2005–06
2006–07
2007–08
2008–09
2009–10
2010–11
2011–12
2012–13
2013–14
2014–15
2015–16
2016–17
2017–18
2018–19
2019–20
2020–21
2021–22
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: GoI (2021e).
Source: Authors’ calculations; data from RBI, GoI (2022a).
Figure 11: Domestic and International Prices of Sunflower Oil, 2017–21
18,000 in Table 6. Thus, MSP has so far remained a nominal backstop
16,000 for oilseed farmers. Until the relative attractiveness of MSP im-
14,000 proves, using it as a policy tool is unlikely to change the status
12,000 Domestic International
of oilseeds as underperforming secondary rain-fed crops.
10,000 Table 6: Margin of MSP over Cost for Select Crops (` per quintal)
`/ Qtl
8,000 Years Paddy Wheat Sugar Groundnut Soybean Sunflower
6,000 2017–18 38.76 112.36 67.76 40.87 43.80 17.78

4,000 2018–19 50.09 112.47 77.42 50.00 50.00 50.00
2,000 2019–20 50.25 109.47 76.28 49.97 50.02 49.99
2020–21 50.04 103.40 79.25 50.07 49.98 50.09
0
2021–22 50.04 97.74 87.10 50.04 50.02 50.00
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Cost = (A2+ FL), that is, variable cost + imputed value of family labour.
Source: GoI (2022a).
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: GoI (2021e).
Further, domestic prices are seen to be driven more by global
prices and highly competitive export markets due to trade
minimum support prices (MSPs) as well as continuous revisions liberalisation, resulting in farmers shying away from risky
in tariffs have often been used to smoothen pricing fluctua- crops in favour of more remunerative crops (Narayan 2017).
tions and encourage domestic production. The MSPs for oil- The other major and more important intervention has been
seeds have undergone a substantial change keeping in view through the medium of import duties as more than half of the
the domestic prices of edible oils and the need to promote their domestic needs are met by imports. Since liberalisation, the
production. Soybean is a major oilseed crop, occupying about import of edible oils has been under an open general licence.
45% of the total oilseed cultivation area in the country. The In order to reconcile the interests of farmers, processors, and
changes in the MSP for soybean since 1990 as against its do- consumers, all of which are very different, a tariff structure for
mestic production are mapped in Figure 12. edible oils has been actively used by the government. Generally,
It appears that attempts were made to compensate soybean in times of low domestic prices, import tariffs have been raised
farmers in 2008–09 through a sharp increase in the MSP by to protect the interests of farmers and processors, and in high
32% as the WPI of oilseeds increased by 27.2% between inflation periods, tariffs have been lowered to protect the con-
December 2006 and June 2008. The sharp increases in the sumers. The tariff structure has been frequently revised, re-
international prices of soy oil by 45% in 2007 and 42% in 2008 flecting in the import duty that has varied from a low of 0% to
may have also contributed to the sharp rise in MSP. The purpose a high of 90%. Between 2000 and 2008, the tariffs have un-
of an increase in MSP is largely to serve as a signal to farmers dergone 15 revisions (Reddy 2009). Since then, it has been
to increase the area under soybean so as to mellow down pric- amended 17 more times with respect to palm oil. In addition to
es. However, as observed earlier, the area under oilseeds expe- import duty, the government also levies a social welfare cess
rienced negligible growth rates. A somewhat similar situation and an agricultural cess for the import of edible oils. The low
arose in 2011–12. Despite the increases in MSP, the procure- yields in Indian oilseed crops make the country highly non-
ment has been nominal. The execution is perhaps rendered competitive in the production of oilseeds and despite the
inefficient because the coverage is spread over a wide area, the imposition of tariffs, the imports of edible oils are cheaper and
market has been dominated by cheap imports of palm oil, and resorted to meet the burgeoning demand.
the market prices for other oils were perhaps higher than the Liberalisation led to a progressive decline in tariffs for most ed-
MSP. The MSP-based relative income terms of trade within ible oils from a high of 65% in 1994 to a low of 15% in 1998.
crops have not been favourable to oilseeds and appear skewed The availability of cheap imports has in fact led to a sharp drop
towards foodgrains, particularly wheat and sugar as indicated in the area under cultivation and, therefore, in the production
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SPECIAL ARTICLE
Figure 13a: Base Import Tariff Structure—Palm Oil Figure 13b: Base Import Tariff Structure—Soybean Oil
90 50
80 45
Refined palm 40 Refined soy oil
70
35
60
30
50
(%)
(%)
25
40
20
30
15
Crude palm Crude soy oil
20 10
10 5
0 0
2/2006
2/2007
2/2008
2/2009
2/2010
2/2011
2/2012
2/2013
2/2014
2/2015
2/2016
2/2017
2/2018
2/2019
2/2020
2/2021
2/2006
2/2007
2/2008
2/2009
2/2010
2/2011
2/2012
2/2013
2/2014
2/2015
2/2016
2/2017
2/2018
2/2019
2/2020
2/2021
2/2022
Source: GoI (2021c, 2021d, 2022c, 2022d); Chakraborty (2021). Source: GoI (2021c, 2021d, 2022c, 2022d); Chakraborty (2021).
of oilseeds (Figure 1). Considering the need to protect the do- the domestic edible oil economy. At best, there is some harmo-
mestic sector, post-1998, the tariffs on edible oils show an in- nisation of prices vis-à-vis international prices. The farmer is
creasing trend. This continued for the period between 1999 not incentivised by either the market mechanism or techno-
and 2005 to reach a high of 80% for crude palm oil and 90% logical and productivity improvements to allocate more area
for refined palm oil in February 2005 (Ghosh 2009). This was under oilseed crops or improve productivity. The consumer is
possibly because the country began to become too dependent exposed to periods of very high inflation, given the inelastic
on imports, resulting in a steep decline in the cultivated area demand and exposure to global price volatility through im-
under oilseeds. Hence, the imposition of high tariffs could help ports, in addition to the domestic volatility of production
to protect domestic producers, who, in turn, would be incen- caused by the inherent riskiness of the crop. The only answer
tivised to allocate more area to oilseeds. lies in achieving self-sufficiency for important consumption
High levels of inflation were observed in both domestic and items, such as edible oils.
global prices in 2003 and 2004 (Figure 4) and this presumably
influenced the government to reduce tariffs. From the high levels Challenges for Self-sufficiency
of 2005, the tariffs were reduced to a low of 7.5% in 2013–14. The pandemic brought to the fore the vulnerabilities of the
Strong economic growth during this period led to a high pro- Indian oilseeds and edible oils sectors largely due to the huge
tein and edible oil demand and in order to cope with the short- dependence on imports to meet domestic requirements. The
fall and prevent further price rise, imports were encouraged. Russia–Ukraine war further exasperated the supply shocks in
The imports of edible oils surged from 5.61 million tonnes in several commodities with edible oils being a front-runner. Soy
2007–08 to 10.60 million tonnes in 2012–13, an 89% increase. oil, for instance, witnessed a monthly average inflation (WPI,
Reducing tariffs resulted in the inevitable increase in imports, base 2012) of 40% between November 2020 and November
which impacted the domestic oil economy as protection was 2021, while the increase for vegetable oils was 35% for the cor-
withdrawn. This again led to a decline in the area under culti- responding period. The shortage of soy oil supply in exporting
vation and consequently, in the production of oilseeds. The in- countries, such as Argentina, due to adverse weather conditions
flation, however, remained subdued as global factors kept the and supply chain shocks in sunflower oil, due to the Russia–
international and import prices subdued. Ukraine war, all contributed to the sharp rise in global prices
At this point, the need was again felt to incentivise the and India inevitably imported the inflation as well. Palm oil,
domestic oil economy and thus tariffs were raised after 2014 to the largest of India’s edible oil imports, was negatively affected
44% by 2018 (GoI 2022a). The period 2019–20 to 2020–21 by adverse weather conditions in Indonesia and Malaysia and
witnessed a sharp increase in the price of edible oil triggered pandemic-induced labour shortages in Malaysia for harvesting
by the uncertainties and supply bottlenecks caused by the the crop. It is also not prudent for India to become vulnerable
COVID-19 pandemic. The government again resorted to a to the policies of other countries. For example, Indonesia and
reduction in import duties on edible oils from 40% for crude Malaysia introduced policies to promote the use of vegetable
palm oil in 2019 to 27.5% in November 2020. In response to oils to produce biofuel, thus reducing exportable surplus
the strong inflationary pressures caused by further supply (Singh 2022).
disruptions, the import tariffs were again reduced by 2022 It may be interesting to note that the country simultaneously
to an effective rate of 5.5% for crude oils. The base duty experienced excess production and buffer stocks for crops such
structure for the two important oils since 2006 is depicted in as rice, wheat, and sugar, which benefited Indian traders, who
Figures 13a and 13b. chose to export the excess supplies to domestic markets in light
The continuous revisions of tariffs are an attempt to strike a of the favourable international prices given supply shocks in
balance between the interests of producers and consumers. international markets. The scenario with respect to edible oils
Periodically, one pressure group or the other demands conces- is the opposite, thus highlighting the need for self-sufficiency
sions, increased tariffs, and/or increased import quotas. in oilseeds. At the same time, the demand for edible oil is prov-
However, this balancing exercise has, by and large, deteriorated ing to be inelastic given the increase in population, economic
SPECIAL ARTICLE
growth, and increase in demand for processed foods. Palm oil basket as well as for industrial use, the government launched
is also used for cosmetics, soaps, and the manufacture of other the Oil Palm Development Programme in 1991–92 with a focus
products. The demand for oil is thus not only from the house- on area expansion. The TMO was converted into the National
hold sector but also from the commercial sector. Mission on Oilseeds and Oil Palm in 2014, which, however,
The shortcomings of the oilseed crops in India are well- met with limited success as the negligible palm oil produced in
documented. Oilseed crops are rich in energy but generally the country was largely in Andhra Pradesh with a share of 83%
grown in energy-starved regions such as marginal lands. in 2019–20 (GoI 2021a). This scheme was merged with the
Further, the cultivation is largely dependent upon rainfall, National Food Security Mission in 2018–19 with the aim of
which causes fluctuations in yield. Barely 31% of the area under increasing the area under palm, increasing productivity through
oilseeds is irrigated. However, soybean, which constitutes technology, and promoting extension services.
about 36% of the total oilseed production, is almost entirely In August 2021, the government launched a new programme
dependent upon rainfall. Thus, soybean cultivation routinely called the National Mission on Edible Oils-Oil Palm (NMEO-OP)
faces the risk of monsoons, with several instances in states like (GoI 2021b) as a centrally sponsored scheme with a special focus
Maharashtra where farmers have lost their crops or suffered on the North East region and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
from low yields due to poor rainfall or untimely monsoons. The scheme aims at increasing the area under oil–palm with
Oilseed crops are thus high-risk commodities. a view to benefit palm farmers, create employment, and
The seed itself plays a major role in increasing productivity reduce import dependence. The government also aims to give
and farmers often face the shortage of quality seeds. Discus- price assurance to the oil palm farmers so that they do not
sions with farmers also revealed that if suitable seeds are become vulnerable to global prices. To meet the shortage of
available, they will be able to grow soybean in the summer planting material, assistance is given to seed gardens by the
too, apart from kharif. Crop rotation and integrated nutrient government. Several other incentives are also given to promote
management will also help to increase productivity. the cultivation of oil palm, which, in turn, will attract industry
Studies have also highlighted the yield gaps between in these regions.
the world averages and the Indian, between the research
stations and the field level. In the case of soybean, while the An Industry Perspective
potential was 20.17 quintals per hectare, the average yield Discussions with industry experts, particularly those who
realised in Maharashtra was only 14.23 quintals per hectare. own oil processing units in Latur and Nanded districts of
The corresponding figures for Madhya Pradesh were 11.14 Maharashtra, revealed several suggestions to revitalise the oil-
quintals per hectare and 7.1 quintals per hectare (GoI 2022b). seed economy in Maharashtra. Notably, it was indicated that
The same applies to all other oilseed crops. The technology more research is required in the seed sector so that farmers can
extension linkages have been woefully inadequate as the cultivate soybean at least twice a year. It is also important to
productivity levels are nowhere near their potential. In addi- improve the quality of the seed, so that proper germination takes
tion to the low productivity, the low processing technology, place, failing which farmers have to sow a second time, which
and more importantly, the poor storage facilities cause huge greatly increases the cost of cultivation. Farmers in Maharashtra
post-harvest losses. were keen on cultivating summer soybean, provided that
The above challenges as well as pandemic-related supply drought-resistant seeds are available. Some industry experts
shocks, geopolitics, and trade policies of exporting countries were satisfied with government measures, such as creating
have made India realise the need for self-sufficiency in edible water harvesting structures and promoting schemes for soil
oils. Further, any increase in international prices adds to conservation. This will help to save the crop in the case of
the strain on foreign exchange in the country and also the delayed or failed monsoons.
fiscal deficit. Soybean generates 18% to 20% of oil and the balance
The Technology Mission on Oilseeds (TMO), the first com- de-oiled soya cake is used as livestock feed. Sharp increases in
prehensive intervention aimed at self-sufficiency in oilseeds, soybean prices in 2021 cascaded to the feed costs and with
was launched as early as 1986. This intervention brought poultry prices already down due to the lockdown caused by
about an increase in the area under oilseeds from 18.63 million the pandemic, the sector had severe stress. This led to the
hectares in 1986–87 to 26.90 million hectares in 1993–94, an government relaxing the imports of crushed and de-oiled soya
increase of 44%. Accordingly, there was an increase in produc- cake. As a result, the soybean prices suddenly declined, which
tion by 90% and in yield, by 32% during the corresponding can have a negative impact on the area cultivated. Such ad hoc
period. However, this achievement appeared to be short-lived measures to help one sector may adversely affect the forward
as the opening up of the economy, which gathered momentum and/or backward linkages in the chain and hence, could be
since 1994, resulted in higher growth and thus higher demand. destabilising in nature.
The domestic oil economy could not match the cheap and From an industry perspective, one view was also against the
efficient imports, in particular the dominance of imported palm allocation of tariff rate quotas for the import of crude soybean oil
oil that became the most commonly used edible oil. The domestic and crude sunflower as it will arrest domestic prices and thus
production of palm oil was negligible at 0.25 million tonnes. harm farmers and processing units. The answer then lies in
However, with palm oil gaining importance in the consumer improving technology, and extension services, coupled with
SPECIAL ARTICLE
price incentives so as to encourage farmers to allocate more Accordingly, the subsidy and price incentive mechanisms must
area to oilseed crops. be redirected. This will require a long-term approach but will
orient the farm sector towards efficiency.
Policy Suggestions The use of quality seeds is clearly a potent measure to increase
Trade policy reforms should be accompanied by domestic farm productivity. Likewise, crop rotation and programmes such as
sector reforms. Cheap and efficient imports should have ideally Integrated Nutrient Management are also required to increase
led to a competitive oil economy, especially in view of the increas- productivity. Closing the yield gap between the research station
ing demand for edible oils. In the absence of a competitive and the farm itself will double the output. Technology extension
industry and high price volatility, the government resorted to centres should take a lead role in filling this gap. Increasing the
continuous changes in the tariff structure as a solution. This processing ability, modernising the processing technology, and
solution becomes more complex when the global value chain modern storage facilities are desired areas of improvement.
begins to lose credibility as recently witnessed, and also in the Many of these recommendations are not new. Underper-
presence of multiple stakeholders with contradictory interests. formance, so far, on many counts, indicates the need for a different
For instance, consumers desire cheap imports, meaning minimal perspective on the sector, and perhaps in the entire national
or zero tariffs, while farmers will want very high tariffs to agricultural economy. The way forward could mean resorting
protect their returns. The oil processors would desire high to practical solutions such as encouraging private investments
tariffs for refined oil, but low or no tariffs for crude oil. For the and cooperatives, incentivising technology, and offering income
last three decades, the government, in order to reconcile the subsidies to poor farmers rather than price subsidies for all.
interests of various stakeholders, has been making continuous Indian agriculture is plagued by the subsidy syndrome, which has
revisions in tariffs with the result that there is no stable policy caused huge fiscal deficits that are now becoming unsustainable.
for the oilseed economy. A sound policy for edible oilseeds Further, subsidies are often misdirected and cause negative
and the oil sector would mean less uncertainty and better externalities. Redirecting crop allocations to desired crops
planning for all stakeholders such as to enable the government rather than for political expediencies, creating model farms and
to achieve its goal of self-sufficiency. centres of excellence whether in the public or private or co-op-
The MSP regime should ideally be driven by the desired supply erative sectors, developing technology and ensuring its reach
responses, and facilitate high-quality storage and transport by the state extension machinery, and above all, a consistent
logistics. It is time to recognise the need to divert cultivation and long-term tariff policy, are a slew of measures which can
from high water and fertiliser-intensive crops and traditional revive the oilseed economy, ensure self-sufficiency in oilseeds,
cereals to higher nutritional cereals, pulses, and oilseeds. and reduce the country’s vulnerability to external shocks.
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Chakraborty, Subhayan (2021): “Govt Scraps Import Government of India, https://pib.gov.in/Press- nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3077254/.
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cess-7578061.html. mation Bureau, Government of India, https://pib. Masters, M W and A K White (2008): “The Acciden-
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Who Wins and Who Loses?” Working Paper No 2, Supply of Edible Oil in India,” International
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zation_on_oilseed_and_edible_oil_sector_in_ tics%20at%20a%20Glance%20-%202021%20 Office of the Economic Advisor, Department for
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Season 2011–12,” Commission for Agricultural ing Season 2022–23,” Commission for Agricul- Reddy, A Amarender (2009): “Policy Options for
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cacp.dacnet.nic.in/ViewQuestionare.aspx?Inp in/ViewQuestionare.aspx?Input=2&DocId=1 RBI (nd): “Database on Indian Economy,” Depart-
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CURRENT STATISTICS EPW Research Foundation
Wholesale Price Index Foreign Trade

The year-on-year (y-o-y) growth rate of WPI stood at 0.7% in December 2023 The trade deficit narrowed down to $19.8 billion in December 2023 from $23.1 bn
compared to 5.0% reported a year ago and 0.3% a month ago. The index for registered a year ago; exports grew by 1.0% to $38.5 bn and imports decreased by
primary articles grew by 5.8% against 2.7% registered a year ago and 4.8% (-)4.9% to $58.3 bn from $38.1 bn and $61.2 bn, respectively; oil imports stood lower at
a month ago. The rate of inflation of food articles increased to 9.4% from $14.9 bn compared to $19.3 bn while non-oil imports were higher at $43.3 bn
-1.0% reported a year ago. The index for fuel and power and manufactured compared to $41.9 bn. During April–December 2023–24, cumulative exports declined
products declined by (-)2.4% and (-)0.7%, respectively compared to 18.1% by (-)5.7% to $317.1 bn and imports by (-)7.9% to $505.1 bn against their respective
and 3.4% a year ago. values of $336.3 bn and $548.6 bn respectively from April–December 2022–23.
Consumer Price Index Index of Eight Core Industries

The CPI-inflation rate stood at 5.69% in December 2023 compared to 5.72% The y-o-y growth rate of ICI slowed down to 3.8% in December 2023 from 8.3%
registered a year ago and 5.55% a month ago. The CPI-food grew by 9.5% against registered a year ago. In the coal segment, it decreased to 10.6%, petroleum
4.2% reported a year ago and 8.70% a month ago. The CPI-rural inflation rate refinery products to 2.6%, steel to 5.9%, cement to 1.3%, electricity generation
decreased to 5.9% while the urban-inflation rate increased to 5.5% from 6.0% and to 0.6% and fertilisers to 5.8% from their respective growth rates of 12.3%,
5.4%, respectively, reported a year ago. According to Labour Bureau data, the CPI for 3.7%, 12.3%, 9.5%, 10.4% and 7.3% reported a year ago. Production of natural
agricultural labourers (CPI–AL) stood at 7.7% in December 2023 compared to 6.4% gas increased by 6.6% and growth rate in the crude oil segment stood at -1.0%
and industrial workers (CPI–IW) at 4.9% against 5.5%, a year ago. compared to 2.6% and -1.2% recorded a year ago.
Movement of WPI-Inflation Rate January 2022–December 2023 Merchandise Trade December 2023
Year-on-Year in % December 2023 Over Month Over Year April–December
($ bn) (%) (%) (2023–24 over 2022–23) (%)
60
Fuel and Power Exports 38.5 13.4 1.0 -5.7
Imports 58.3 6.9 -4.9 -7.9
40 Trade balance -19.8 -3.8 -14.4 -11.4
Data is provisional. Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
Primary Articles
20
Trade Balance January 2022–December 2023
5.8% $ billion
0 7
Manufactured
Products -0.7%
-2.4% 0
-20 Non-Oil
Jan F M A M J J A S O N D Jan F M A M J J A S O N Dec* Oil -$8.1 bn
2022 2023 -7
This PDF
* Data was uploade
is provisional; Base: 2011–12To Telegram channel_https://t.me/Magazines_8890050582(send Me Message telegram ya WhatsApp This number 8890050582)
= 100.
-14
Trends in WPI and Its Components December 2023* (%) -$11.7 bn
-21
Financial Year (Averages)
Weights Over Month Over Year 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 -19.8 bn
All commodities 100 -0.9 0.7 1.3 13.0 9.4 -28
Total Trade Balance
Primary articles 22.6 -2.1 5.8 1.7 10.2 10.0
-35
Food articles 15.3 -2.3 9.4 3.2 4.1 7.3 Jan F M A M J J A S O N D Jan F M A M J J A S O N Dec
2022 2023
Fuel and power 13.2 -0.7 -2.4 -8.0 32.5 28.1
Oil refers to crude petroleum and petroleum products, while non-oil refers to all other commodities.
Manufactured products 64.2 -0.2 -0.7 2.8 11.1 5.6
*Data is provisional; Base: 2011–12=100. Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
Movement of Index Values of Components of IIP January 2022–November 2023
Index Value
Movement of CPI Inflation January 2022–December 2023
210
Year-on-Year in % Electricity
168
176.3
15 139.2
126
12 131.1
Mining
Consumer Food 9.5% Manufacturing
84
9
5.7% 42
6
CPI
Miscellaneous 0
Jan F M A M J J A S O N D Jan F M A M J J A S O Nov*
3
4.1%
2022 2023
* November 2023 are quick estimates; Base: 2011–12=100.
0
Index for Eight Core Industries December 2023* (%)
-3
Jan F M A M J J A S O N D Jan F M A M J J A S O N Dec* Weights Over Over Financial Year (Avgs) in %
2022 2023 Month Year 2021–22 2022–23
* Data is provisional. Source: National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation,
Base: 2012=100. Infrastructure industries 40.27@ 5.9 3.8 10.4 7.8
Coal 10.3 9.9 10.6 8.5 14.8
CPI: Rural and Urban December 2023* (%)
Latest Over Over Financial Year (Avgs) Crude oil 9.0 2.5 -1.0 -2.6 -1.7
Month Index Month Year 2021–22 2022–23 Natural gas 6.9 2.9 6.6 19.2 1.6
CPI Combined 185.7 -0.3 5.7 5.5 6.7 Petroleum refinery products 28.0 6.3 2.6 8.9 4.8
Rural (2012=100) 187.6 -0.3 5.9 5.4 6.8 Fertilisers 2.6 3.0 5.8 0.7 11.3
Urban (2012=100) 183.6 -0.3 5.5 5.6 6.4 Steel 17.9 5.3 5.9 16.9 9.3
CPI: Occupation-wise Cement 5.4 18.7 1.3 20.8 8.7
Industrial workers (2016 = 100) 138.8 -0.2 4.9 5.1 6.1 Electricity 19.9 2.4 0.6 8.0 8.9
Agricultural labourers (1986–87 = 100) 1257 0.3 7.7 4.0 6.8 (Base: 2011–12=100); *Data is provisional; @ The revised eight core industries have a combined weight of 40.27% in the IIP.
* Provisional; Source: NSO (rural and urban); Labour Bureau (IW and AL). Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
Comprehensive current economic statistics with regular weekly updates are available at: http://www.epwrf.in/currentstat.aspx.
CURRENT STATISTICS EPW Research Foundation
India’s Quarterly Estimates of Final Expenditures on GDP
2021–22 2022–23 2023–24
` Crore | At 2011–12 Prices Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Private final consumption expenditure 1822102 (17.6) 2121839 (14.2) 2426098 (10.8) 2333501 (4.7) 2182357 (19.8) 2298123 (8.3) 2478700 (2.2) 2399515 (2.8) 2312601 (6.0) 2370094 (3.1)
Government final consumption expenditure 403808 (-2.1) 346501 (11.7) 350565 (5.8) 474406 (11.8) 411243 (1.8) 332450 (-4.1) 348329 (-0.6) 485284 (2.3) 408300 (-0.7) 373513 (12.4)
Gross fixed capital formation 1077836 (61.0) 1209609 (12.4) 1179221 (1.2) 1412108 (4.9) 1297588 (20.4) 1325580 (9.6) 1273453 (8.0) 1538071 (8.9) 1400832 (8.0) 1471938 (11.0)
Change in stocks 28895 (974.6) 31402 (655.9) 29902 (618.9) 33964 (613.8) 31050 (7.5) 30591 (-2.6) 29868 (-0.1) 35954 (5.9) 32256 (3.9) 34154 (11.6)
Valuables 22035 (481.3) 134378 (156.6) 73595 (44.5) 48751 (-51.7) 34959 (58.7) 108206 (-19.5) 45595 (-38.0) 37330 (-23.4) 27633 (-21.0) 103901 (-4.0)
Net trade (Export–Import) 15631 -46285 -91258 -65580 -86460 -146624 -97506 -6264 -258496 -285849
Exports 765031 (46.1) 826729 (25.1) 825929 (27.8) 888144 (22.4) 915111 (19.6) 927872 (12.2) 917492 (11.1) 994047 (11.9) 844252 (-7.7) 968011 (4.3)
Less imports 749401 (44.8) 873014 (26.6) 917188 (19.7) 953723 (6.7) 1001571 (33.6) 1074495 (23.1) 1014998 (10.7) 1000311 (4.9) 1102748 (10.1) 1253860 (16.7)
Discrepancies -59256 (-173.6) -145787 (-293.2) -117350 (-388.8) -124790 (-758.1) -126452 (113.4) -70326 (-51.8) -55812 (-52.4) -128375 (2.9) 114019 (-190.2) 106561 (-251.5)
Gross domestic product (GDP) 3311050 (21.6) 3651659 (9.1) 3850772 (5.2) 4112360 (4.0) 3744285 (13.1) 3878000 (6.2) 4022625 (4.5) 4361515 (6.1) 4037144 (7.8) 4174312 (7.6)
India’s Overall Balance of Payments (Net): Quarterly

2022–23 ($ mn) 2023–24 ($ mn) 2022–23 (` bn) 2023–24 (` bn)
Item Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Current account -17964 -30902 -16832 -1356 -9203 -8319 -1387 [-2.1] -2466 [-3.8] -1384 [-2.0] -111.6 [-0.2] -756 [-1.1] -688 [-1.0]
Merchandise -63054 -78313 -71337 -52587 -56624 -61034 -4867 -6249 -5864 -4326.1 -4654 -5045
Invisibles 45090 47411 54505 51231 47421 52715 3480 3783 4481 4214.5 3898 4358
Services 31069 34426 38713 39075 35124 39950 2398 2747 3182 3214.5 2887 3302
of which: Software services 30692 32681 33541 34370 33928 35237 2369 2608 2757 2827.4 2789 2913
Transfers 22874 24773 28467 24762 22866 24952 1766 1977 2340 2037.1 1880 2063
of which: Private 23065 24991 28641 25080 23073 25169 1780 1994 2354 2063.2 1897 2080
Income -8853 -11788 -12675 -12606 -10568 -12187 -683 -941 -1042 -1037.1 -869 -1007
Capital account 22055 1461 28887 6540 34275 9994 1702 [2.6] 117 [0.2] 2375 [3.4] 538.0 [0.7] 2817 [4.0] 826 [1.2]
of which: Foreign investment -1238 12741 6641 4691 20789 4660 -96 1017 546 385.9 1709 385
Overall balance 4595 -30379 11069 5579 24432 2519 355 [0.5] -2424 [-3.7] 910 [1.3] 459.0 [0.6] 2008 [2.8] 208 [0.3]
Figures in square brackets are percentage to GDP.
Foreign Exchange Reserves Variation

26 January 27 January 31 March Month Year Financial Year So Far Financial Year
Excluding gold but including revaluation effects 2024 2023 2023 Ago Ago 2022–23 2023–24 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23
` crore 4691033 4300538 4340297 -51941 390496 62922 350737 68050 668976 590416 302585 102680
$ mn 564392 527496 528083 -5588 36896 -32119 36309 -14168 56831 94535 21435 -31532
Monetary Aggregates Variation

Outstanding Over Month Over Year Financial Year So Far Financial Year
` Crore 2024 2022–23 2023–24 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23
Money supply (M3) as on 12 January 24328667 236420 (1.0) 2485588 (11.4) 1349350 (6.6) 1984906 (8.9) 2044615 (12.2) 1649151 (8.8) 1850032 (9.0)
Components
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402080 (17.1) This
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240747 (7.9)
Demand deposits 2408079 -54163 (-2.2) 191813 (8.7) 3274 (0.1) 87481 (3.8) 257428 (14.8) 217872 (10.9) 107606 (4.9)
Time deposits 18530368 247035 (1.4) 2129612 (13.0) 1214152 (8.0) 1861402 (11.2) 1376262 (10.9) 1136326 (8.1) 1482362 (9.8)
Other deposits with RBI 78465 3370 (4.5) 16139 (25.9) 3882 (6.6) 704 (0.9) 8844 (23.0) 11093 (23.4) 19317 (33.1)
Sources
Net bank credit to government 7325112 -51434 (-0.7) 571286 (8.5) 276197 (4.3) 159579 (2.2) 890012 (17.9) 627255 (10.7) 687904 (10.6)
Bank credit to commercial sector 16718218 167076 (1.0) 2716453 (19.4) 1385245 (11.0) 2288582 (15.9) 629822 (5.7) 948054 (8.1) 1813116 (14.4)
Net foreign exchange assets 5261137 55489 (1.1) 513901 (10.8) -106827 (-2.2) 349371 (7.1) 777810 (20.5) 275217 (6.0) 57703 (1.2)
Banking sector’s net non-monetary liabilities 5008396 -64958 (-1.3) 1319047 (35.8) 206853 (5.9) 814937 (19.4) 253594 (8.4) 202475 (6.2) 710963 (20.4)
Reserve money as on 26 January 4493529 48534 (1.1) 266970 (6.3) 157672 (3.9) 106770 (2.4) 570276 (18.8) 468905 (13.0) 317872 (7.8)
Components
Currency in circulation 3418916 56253 (1.7) 127134 (3.9) 158066 (5.0) 40395 (1.2) 406451 (16.6) 279953 (9.8) 244805 (7.8)
Bankers’ deposits with RBI 994201 -7080 (-0.7) 123246 (14.2) -5771 (-0.7) 63724 (6.8) 154979 (28.5) 177859 (25.4) 53751 (6.1)
Other deposits with RBI 80411 -640 (-0.8) 16590 (26.0) 5377 (9.2) 2650 (3.4) 8844 (23.0) 11093 (23.4) 19317 (33.1)
Sources
Net RBI credit to government 934359 -45300 (-4.6) -228369 (-19.6) -287868 (-19.8) -516766 (-35.6) 107495 (10.8) 350910 (31.9) 529 (0.0)
of which: Centre 921591 -55531 (-5.7) -224435 (-19.6) -302946 (-20.9) -528785 (-36.5) 106606 (10.8) 352626 (32.2) 1404 (0.1)
RBI credit to banks & commercial sector 272057 84147 (44.8) 243573 (855.1) 572186 (-105.2) 366500 (-388.1) -168464 (83.9) -174345 (47.2) 449259 (-82.6)
Net foreign exchange assets of RBI 4975638 -62471 (-1.2) 438623 (9.7) 94536 (2.1) 388282 (8.5) 608998 (17.0) 243079 (5.8) 144877 (3.3)
Govt’s currency liabilities to the public 32596 332 (1.0) 2806 (8.3) 1778 (6.3) 2311 (7.6) 565 (2.1) 1099 (4.1) 2273 (8.1)
Net non-monetary liabilities of RBI 1721122 -71825 (-4.0) 189662 (12.4) 222959 (17.0) 133557 (8.4) -21682 (-1.6) -48159 (-3.5) 279064 (21.3)
Scheduled Commercial Banks’ Indicators ( ` Crore) Variation

Outstanding Over Month Over Year Financial Year So Far Financial Year
(As on 12 January) 2023 2022–23 2023–24 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23
Aggregate deposits 19983897 192340 (1.0) 2309122 (13.1) 1209462 (7.3) 1939983 (10.8) 1546019 (11.4) 1351801 (8.9) 1578601 (9.6)
Demand 2265472 -54031 (-2.3) 189848 (9.1) 2877 (0.1) 85041 (3.9) 244190 (15.1) 211554 (11.4) 107684 (5.2)
Time 17718425 246372 (1.4) 2119274 (13.6) 1206585 (8.4) 1854942 (11.7) 1301831 (10.9) 1140246 (8.6) 1470917 (10.2)
Cash in hand 86932 2500 (3.0) -19286 (-18.2) 20292 (23.6) -3331 (-3.7) 3487 (4.0) -4822 (-5.3) 4337 (5.0)
Balance with RBI 919311 -17090 (-1.8) 118407 (14.8) 117467 (17.2) 109404 (13.5) 6507 (1.2) 140744 (25.9) 126470 (18.5)
Investments 6006277 45760 (0.8) 805815 (15.5) 471515 (10.0) 591129 (10.9) 715177 (19.1) 266421 (6.0) 686201 (14.5)
of which: Government securities 6005550 45789 (0.8) 805941 (15.5) 471431 (10.0) 591229 (10.9) 722935 (19.3) 266546 (6.0) 686143 (14.5)
Bank credit 15971513 166237 (1.1) 2694754 (20.3) 1385445 (11.7) 2296278 (16.8) 578649 (5.6) 1044026 (9.6) 1783921 (15.0)
of which: Non-food credit 15927545 164768 (1.0) 2703440 (20.4) 1387801 (11.7) 2272215 (16.6) 569159 (5.6) 1050270 (9.7) 1819026 (15.4)
Capital Markets 2 February Month Year Financial Year So Far 2022–23 End of Financial Year
2024 Ago Ago Trough Peak Trough Peak 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23
S&P BSE SENSEX (Base: 1978–79 = 100) 72085.63 (20.3) 71892.48 59932.24 (0.6) 59106.44 73327.94 51360.42 63284.19 49009 (63.7) 57362 (18.4) 58992 (0.7)
S&P BSE-100 (Base: 1983–84 = 100) 22643.54 (26.8) 22329.64 17863.07 (-1.1) 17644.91 22810.43 15562.65 19137.18 14689 (68.2) 17423 (20.1) 17602 (-0.7)
S&P BSE-200 (1989–90 = 100) 9824.30 (30.6) 9625.25 7522.21 (-2.3) 7406.09 9849.46 6602.62 8144.55 6211 (71.1) 7412 (20.9) 7389 (-2.0)
CNX Nifty-50 (Base: 3 November 1995 = 1000) 21853.80 (24.1) 21665.80 17610.40 (-1.0) 17398.05 22097.45 15293.50 18812.50 14507 (67.9) 17153 (19.7) 17360 (-0.6)
CNX Nifty-500 19910.80 (34.2) 19418.40 14839.40 (-3.0) 14601.95 19910.80 12950.75 16003.95 12149 (73.7) 14652 (22.2) 14558 (-2.3)
Figures in brackets are percentage variations over the specified or over the comparable period of the previous year. | (-) = not relevant | - = not available | NS = new series | PE = provisional estimates
Comprehensive current economic statistics with regular weekly updates are available at: http://www.epwrf.in/currentstat.aspx.
POSTSCRIPT
POPULAR CULTURE
From Blonde Bimbo to Bad ‘Bitch’

Barbie’s Image Transformation through Songs
Aqua’s portrayal of Barbie as a “bimbo,” seeking fulfilment through Ken’s company, is confronted with a
self-reliant and independent Barbie in Nicki Minaj and Ice Spice’s 2023 rendition.
Rashmi Ranjan Behera, Aniruddha Jena, Chirashree Srabani Rath
S
ince its debut in 1959, the Barbie doll has been marred seemed to be one of surrender, entrusting Ken with the ability
by a multitude of controversies. It has been criticised for to dictate her treatment and behaviour at his discretion.
encouraging unrealistic, unattainable, and unhealthy Moreover, Barbie saying “make me walk, make me talk, do
body types/proportions, damaging body positivity, and low- whatever you please; I can act like a star, I can beg on my
ering young girls’ self-esteem. Barbie’s preoccupation with knees” to Ken, and “imagination, life is your creation” fostered
clothes, dollhouses, and accessories has drawn criticism for the notion that women can be subjected to the perverse expec-
promoting materialism and sexism. Furthermore, its emphasis tations of men, reinforcing toxic masculinity. In contrast, the
on a youthful body as a woman’s primary asset underscores new rendition presents Barbie as a strong and confident
ageism and the sexualisation of the female body. woman, unapologetically celebrating her body while strate-
Aqua’s music video “Barbie Girl” (1997) accentuated these gically leveraging it as an asset and exerting authority over
issues, highlighting the perverse expectations women face. her sexuality. Barbie is portrayed as an assertive woman who
Consequently, Mattel, the owner of the doll brand, pursued an “knows the tricks” of relationships, skilful enough to get Ken
unsuccessful legal action against the music video The new rendition “bricked” or aroused at her discretion.
for trademark infringement and objectification of also underlines Ice This transformation departs from traditional
Barbie. Despite the derogatory lyrics, the song’s Spice’s queer gender dynamics, portraying Barbie not as a sub-
catchy melody eclipsed the outrageous elements sexuality, whose missive entity but as a self-determined force, nav-
and was embraced as an innocuous song, taking unapologetic igating relationships on her terms in a male-dom-
on nostalgic value as the years passed. However, inated society. The new rendition also underlines
openness weaves a
the release of Greta Gerwig’s movie Barbie (2023) Ice Spice’s queer sexuality, whose unapologetic
powerful layer to
reignited discussions and debates about the proble- openness weaves a powerful layer to Barbie’s narra-
Barbie’s narrative
matic nature of Aqua’s lyrics. The cultural landscape tive. This dynamic inclusion not only enriches the
shifted with Nicki Minaj and Ice Spice’s subsequent rendition of LGBTQIA+ narrative but firmly asserts the LGBTQIA+ communi-
“Barbie World” (2023). This rendition, although sexualised, ty’s significant role within the contemporary societal fabric.
ushered in a significant transformation in the doll’s image The explicit violence against Barbie in Aqua’s version, with
and catalysed a compelling reassessment of the intertwined Ken severing Barbie’s arm and teasing her, is treated with a
notions of Barbie, femininity, and societal paradigms. powerful transformation in the new rendition. The new
The portrayal of the clichéd “White” Barbie in “Barbie Girl” Barbies assert their capacity to fight back, evident in multiple
encounters a counterpoint in “Barbie World.” In “Barbie World,” instances of growling, references to incarceration and
Nicki Minaj and Ice Spice as new-age Barbies with diverse racial avoiding bail, and engaging in traditionally male-associated
backgrounds not only advocate that girls of all races are inher- behaviours. This progression signifies a shift from a narrative
ently beautiful and deserve a perfect score of 10 on 10 but also of victimhood to one of empowerment and assertive figures,
proudly flaunt their curvaceous physique characterised by wide issuing warnings about their formidable capabilities.
hips and a heavy bust. This transformative representation of Aqua’s portrayal of Barbie as a “bimbo,” seeking fulfilment
Barbie challenges racism and redefines conventional ideals of through Ken’s company and rides in his car, is confronted with a
beauty, promotes acceptance and appreciation of diverse body self-reliant Barbie who revels in independence. She owns and
types, heralding a progression from notions of low self-esteem, enjoys parties in her Corvettes/Ferraris, cruises through op-
self-discontentment, and marginalisation towards narratives ulent driveways in Los Angeles, resides in upscale neighbour-
of self-acceptance, self-love, and celebration of diversity. hoods like Madison Avenue in New York, and wields financial
Aqua’s Barbie was an object of sexual gratification, available freedom. Barbie here is a breadwinner who wants more than
for “touch,” “play,” and “undressing” anywhere without con- the lion’s share and strives to manifest all her aspirations
straint. Despite this, she was depicted as eternally in love with without any reservations. While the lyrics reflect materialism,
Ken and “always his,” symbolising a problematic projection they counter the male-centric narratives of unequal power and
of femininity. However, beneath this seemingly submissive pay, patriarchy and encourage self-reliance and economic
façade lay an undercurrent of violence; Barbie’s disposition freedom/empowerment of women. In the new rendition,
POSTSCRIPT
POPULAR CULTURE
Minaj’s portrayal as a divine Barbie, captivating smaller embracing negative terms with pride, the artists also address the
Kens/male figures, symbolises the ascendancy of women in old pretentious Barbies as “bitches” with disgust to denounce
terms of influence and status. This imagery/scene encapsu- the stereotypes and the gender norms established by them. The
lates both a metaphorical and literal elevation, signifying a new rendition’s explicit sexual innuendos, expletives, imagery
transformation in gender power dynamics. of violence, and display of body as a divine power figure,
Although Aqua defended the song on several occasions, however, have attributed “bad-bitch” qualities to new-age
claiming it to be innocent, it cemented a stereotyped identity Barbies, positively resonating with contemporary women’s
of Barbie and femininity. However, the new lyrics reflect new cultural understanding of empowered femininity.
Barbies’ intentions to terminate the misguided influence of In conclusion, the transformation of Barbie’s image from
“pretentious” old Barbie and her “clique,” rather with some “blonde bimbo” to “bad bitch” underscores the potency of
degree of violence. The lyrics contain numerous instances of the music in challenging norms, fostering awareness, and pro-
word “bitch” and an allusion to direct encounters with “fake” moting positive change. Beyond entertaining the audience,
Barbie, even invoking imagery of “dragging her” by her hair. Minaj and Spice’s rendition has challenged conventional
The word “bitch”—a trend that started with celebrities and beauty standards, gender dynamics, sexuality, and racism
hip-hop artists using terms like “bitch” and “badass” as labels and has empowered narratives of self-love, self-acceptance,
of female empowerment to identify themselves—has bestowed gender empowerment, and inclusivity.
positive connotations to negative terms. This popular culture
is now being widely exploited in social media like Facebook, Rashmi Ranjan Behera (beherarranjan@outlook.com) teaches at the Atal Bihari
Vajpayee Indian Institute of Information Technology and Management, Gwalior.
Twitter/X and TikTok, where women are identifying themselves Aniruddha Jena (aniruddha.jena@iimkashipur.ac.in) teaches at the Indian Institute of
using similar words. However, it is important to note that in the Management Kashipur. Chirashree Srabani Rath (srabani.rath89@gmail.com) is a
new rendition, while aligning with contemporary culture and researcher at the Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur.
POSTSCRIPT
LOSS
Skipping over Damaged Areas

Do we need to embrace our scars while remembering departed parents, spouses, and prospective lovers?
Devashish Makhija
M
was over one morning to play me some black and came away from his clinic that evening not just with an
white abstract films from the 1940s on her Apple accessory, but with a new-found patience for the world we
MacBook as a reference for the film she wanted to were losing every day.
shoot. The playing surface of the DVD was scratched, and a I heard from dad that Dr G had been laid up in bed with an
few minutes into the first film, the image froze on a startled illness for the last couple of months. Not surprising, I said to
expression of the actor and a band appeared across the top of dad, since the doc was old, overworked, fragile, and clearly
the screen with the words “skipping over damaged areas.” A overwhelmed by the dizziness of the times we live in. No,
few seconds later, the film started again, but many minutes said dad, that’s not it, the doctor’s mom was ill too, terminal-
of the film had been “skipped,” evidently the portions on the ly. She was 95. He was really attached to his mother and slept
“damaged areas” of the playing surface. It made me wonder next to her in the same double bed through her sickness so she
if most of us are also programmed to skip over the He is one of those would not feel alone. That made him ill too. It
damaged areas of our lives. who walk with seemed strange to me then—that a 70-year-old
Dr G is a gentle, immaculate, earnest, if sweetly measured man slept next to his mother of 95, hoping for her
bumbling doctor of the eyes. He is 70, wears really thoughtful steps to get better, but growing indisposed himself in
old pants that come nearly up to his chest, baring his through the the process. But when I thought about it again the
socked ankles in the process, and takes his own damaged areas, not next morning, it shook something inside of me as
spectacles off every time he flashes the testing light I realised that dad probably would do the same
skip over them
into a patient’s eyes. When I met him last, he thing if dadi were really ill.
changed my appearance forever by prescribing me glasses at Therein lay the major difference between him and me.
the ripe age of 31. In between struggling to read the alphabet Things change with such cold inevitability and speed in the
chart, I discussed the invasive “mall” way of life with him. life I live that I seem to have become conditioned to not
He was reluctant to use the word “culture” because of the feeling too much remorse at the passing of time. But for the
deeper resonances the word held for him. I spoke slowly doctor, his mother’s impending death, no matter how inevi-
because when I sped, I think he only heard garbled noise. I table and natural at that old age, was slowly breaking his heart.
POSTSCRIPT
LOSS
He was, in effect, aware of every sector in the damaged areas. But I snapped out of it. I was “end-searching” too. I stored
Whereas I had been programmed to skip them. the thought in a corner of my memory to ruminate over it
Sunday was my parents’ 40th marriage anniversary. I called some other day. And crawled through the shoot, happily
dad and he told me that he had dug out his wedding photo starved, willingly exhausted, excitedly unable to get the
albums, dusted them clean, cleared the centre table, and shots we wanted, revelling in the frustration at not being
spent the morning revisiting the day from 40 years ago. He able to touch M, to whom I was intensely attracted, but to
started talking about the sole bottle of Coca-Cola that mom whom I was merely a buddy. I was walking through my dam-
and he drank from with two straws. They had to make that aged areas, not skipping over them.
one bottle last nearly 20 clichéd romantic photo ops. He was And when I saw it that way, an “end search” did not seem
lingering over one such picture when I hesitantly asked him like the best of ideas.
why he was doing this because it might depress him. “Depress?”
Devashish Makhija (nakedindianfakir@gmail.com) has made the films Ajji (2017),
he asked, almost bewildered by the thought, “how can this Bhonsle (2020), and Joram (2023), and authored the novel Oonga (2021). His father,
depress me? I know she is gone, but that does not mean I whom he wrote about in this piece, has since passed.
forget that she used to be there?”
Damaged areas. He embraced his in a way which elevated
them from being called that. The act of loving her whom he
will never have again, and feeling just that—love, no remorse,
sorrow or self-pity—made those “bad sectors” accessible
again, the data they bore, reinterpreted. And then dad told
me Dr G’s mom had passed away silently in her sleep even
while the doctor slept soundly beside her. The doctor had
woken up that morning, brought in the papers, found a head-
line he just had to share with his mom, turned to her and no-
ticed that the news would never mean anything to her ever
again. Strangely the doctor was back at work in his clinic the
very next afternoon. But, I remind myself, that is not strange.
He lives on with the loss, not despite it. He is one of those who
walks with measured thoughtful steps through the damaged
areas, not skip over them.
This reminded dad of the morning he found his own father
dead. He was only 48, a heart patient, and dad remembered
seeing him sitting before the large living room window
watching a crow. Dad left the room to get some tea. When he
returned, his father’s eyes had shut. His heart had seized,
silently, lethally, and quickly. The crow had disappeared
from the window. And when dad recounted this, I could feel,
on the other end of the phone line, as if he were smiling with
the memory … “I know he is gone, but that does not mean I
forget that he used to be there.”
I was helping shoot M’s film with a digital camera today.
We rewound and replayed some of the rushes we had shot,
to see what had been canned and what therefore remained
to be shot. Done, we needed to start recording again, on the
same digital video tape, from the point where we had
stopped recording earlier. I was fast-forwarding through
the tape, watching the speeding image intently to spot
where the recording had ended, when M grabbed the
camera from me and pressed “end search.” And presto, the
tape forwarded itself automatically to the end of the
recorded material. It made me wonder if we do that in our
lives too. Always alert for the button that will take us to
the end, to the destination; whether in a conversation, a
journey, or a race, we seldom ever want for things to take
their own course.
POSTSCRIPT
LITERATURE, FEMINISM
Trin Dhari Ot
War, Ecofeminism, and Sitayan
Anamika’s Hindi novel, Trin Dhari Ot, places women
at the centre of war and conflict through a feminist
retelling of Ramayan.
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Preety Me Message telegram
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Chand
F
eminist thinkers worldwide have problematised the
secondary placement of women in war-torn areas. An
in-depth analysis of conflict and violence from a feminist
perspective can foreground the other side of the metaphorical
coin. Researching the role of women in conflict and patriarchal
societies led us to the popular Hindi poet and novelist,
Anamika. Winner of the prestigious Sahitya Akademi Award,
she is held in high esteem for her distinct voice. Her latest
novel, Trin Dhari Ot (2023), is exemplary for its reimagin-
ing of the Ramayan, as the interwoven ethos of ecofeminism
lends gravitas and draws attention to the immediacy of envi-
ronmental concerns in today’s era.
The story revisits Ramayan through a feminist lens, ren-
dering it from Sita’s perspective. The uncouth and wild de-
monic tormentors of Ramayan have been viewed as being
deprived of respect by their sophisticated upper-class and
upper-caste counterparts. Trin Dhari Ot instead proposes
inclusivity and symbiotic existence with oppositional forces
within the same society for newer, more harmonious possi-
bilities. Sita, the protagonist of the story, retells the familiar
epic from her experiences, and the novel in this way reveals
her individuality and true character vividly. Sita declaring
herself the daughter of the earth and her emotive conversa-
tions with the natural world highlight the interdependency
of woman and nature. Anamika’s Sita consciously assimi-
lates with her surroundings rather than usurping land and
forest for material gains. One must recognise that falling into
the logic of the White man’s burden, Sita often falters to
POSTSCRIPT
LITERATURE, FEMINISM
civilise the barbaric brutes; however, her efforts to under- and valour. For instance, Janaki was well-versed in both
stand, assimilate, and willingly accept their practices are warfare and intellectual debates; yet her poise in the face of
well-intentioned. The novel is a vehicle for ecofeminism accusations in Ayodhya reflected her devotion towards Ram.
where the protagonist works with nature to effectuate However, tales of her magnanimity compared to Ram’s fail-
change. As her endeavours bear fruit and a visible transfor- ure as her protector are often highlighted in the local folklore
mation, the Ramayan metamorphoses into Sitayan, an epic of Mithila. The inherent environmentalism and humanism of
where Sita emerges as a leader. the feminist consciousness are aptly delineated in this novel
Sita attempts to ameliorate the perception of As Sita’s through the portrayal of Sita as a daughter of the
the indigenous dwellers as savage brutes by learn- endeavours bear earth. The character’s concern for the natural
ing from their innate knowledge of the natural fruit and a visible environment along with its varied ecosystems as
world which aids her efforts towards conserva- transformation, well as for all living beings—human or animal—
tion. She firmly believes in the possibilities of as- underscores the commitment of ecofeminism to
the Ramayan
similation and harmonious coexistence for sus- establishing a sustainable, peaceful society.
metamorphoses
tainable growth and peace as she views the as- Sita of this novel is a daring advocate of feminist
sumptions of a vicious or malevolent “other” as
into Sitayan values who scales varied lengths to establish a
unfounded. While voicing her disappointment with the liberal and progressive society. Her unceasing devotion
continuous assaults led by Ayodhya’s army on the forest towards Ram is evident alongside her critiques of his limita-
dwellers, Sita proposes dialogue over hostility and bloodshed. tions and administrative policies. Sita’s opinions on societal
For instance, Shambook—a Shudra ascetic who attempted shortcomings are expressed with utmost dignity and respect,
to master Brahminical rituals, something that was against without disparaging Ram, her husband and the king.
the conventional practices of the time—is killed by Ram to Adding to other feminist retellings of Ramayan, Trin Dhari
preserve dharma. That Ram was wrong in passing such a Ot envisages a peaceful and harmonious society based on
judgment is voiced only by the protagonist of this novel. Sita, mutual understanding, respect, and compassion. The novelist
thus, stands firm in her belief of assimilation and cultural proves successful in her attempts to demonstrate an alternative
tolerance for societal harmony. social structure based on interlocution, tolerance, and inclu-
As a protagonist, the many facets of Sita’s character and sivity. She elaborates on the wholesomeness of life in a truly
her beliefs are vividly canvassed. It is the story of Sita who democratic society with universality and collective interest
has been returned to exile despite her pregnancy, owing to at its centre. The novel also makes a case for a feminist read-
the alleged loss of dignity in captivity. Leading a tranquil ing of patriarchal epics to centre women and other marginal-
life in the jungle, not only does she dedicatedly fulfil her ised groups in the narratives of war and conflict.
maternal responsibilities towards Luv–Kush but also explores
Preety Choudhari (prc.jpub@gmail.com) teaches at Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar
newer possibilities of relationships with Ravana, Surpanakha, University, Lucknow. Richa Chand teaches at Nari Shiksha Niketan P G College,
and the “other.” The author distinctly highlights her feminist Lucknow.
views through her sympathy for Surpanakha’s mistreatment
at the hands of her brother-in-law, Laxman: “Truly, Surpanakha, LAST LINES
I was horrified on hearing what happened to you. You were just
an infatuated young woman. Your heartful attempts to woo
Laxman were not as sinful to deserve such awful treatment
by him.” Sita further says that he could have opted for a polite
conversation and reasoned with her rather than insult her.
The clarity with which she writes letters for Ram shows
her wisdom, bravery, and pride. She is a vulnerable, forthright,
and self-reflective woman with a definitive outlook. Sita
laments Ram’s royal upbringing, which rendered him ready
for battle but resulted in an underappreciation of fine arts.
The innate focus of patriarchy on breeding strong warriors
becomes a reason for Sita educating her sons not only in
tactical training but also in music and poetry, to enhance
their sensitivity, perception, and quality of life. As such, Sita
subtly challenges the superiority of masculine endeavours.
A thorough reading of Trin Dhari Ot reveals its attempt at
placing women in the genre of war and conflict. Anamika
finely interweaves popular tales from Mithila, prevalent in
the region in the form of folklore related to Sita’s endurance
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LETTERS

A s the dividend of the population

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recession. Fundamentally, the underlying

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some add-ons to bring out welfare aspects.

Call for Papers

(1951: 527–28) enumerated it to be at

well as through the social normativity of

Dr Arun Kumar Banerji Fellowship Programme 2024

in a Democracy Chatterjee has distinguished between the

guarantee schemes with a universal

Beyond Invasions deletion and erasure, the “rationalisation

Narrative of the Golden character and accomplishments in order

Hindu Period distorted colonial lens. He has accused

Komal Hiranandani, Arnab K Basu, Nancy H Chau

Constitutional Origins of the Governance Forms

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Volatility in Edible Oil Economy

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0 Month and year

Source: GoI (2022a).

Low growth in the domestic production of oilseeds directly

Figures 4a and 4b clearly establish that domestic volatility is -10

8,000 Years Paddy Wheat Sugar Groundnut Soybean Sunflower

6,000 2017–18 38.76 112.36 67.76 40.87 43.80 17.78

Time The Week The New Yorker

Forbes Harvard Business Review

Science, History & Environment

National Geographic National Geographic Kids New Scientist

Literature, Health & General

The Writer Publishers Weekly TLS

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Elle Vogue Cosmopolitan

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Wholesale Price Index Foreign Trade

Consumer Price Index Index of Eight Core Industries

India’s Overall Balance of Payments (Net): Quarterly

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