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Chapter 1 Slide
Chapter 1 Slide
Potential Output
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UNIT OUTCOMES
What is microeconomics?
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Gross domestic
product.
Interest rates.
Inflation.
Unemployment.
What is macroeconomics?
the entire economy
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Basic objectives of
macroeconomics
low unemployment, and
stable prices
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Tools of
macro Income Policy Price - salary policy
economics
Export and import: tariffs, Quota,
Trade Policy technical measures
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QUICK QUIZZ
QUICK QUIZZ
3. Microeconomics is
a. the study of how macroeconomic data is constructed from
individual observations.
b. useful for understanding the decisions behind macroeconomic
relationships.
c. a separate field unrelated to macroeconomics.
d. a misspelling of the word macroeconomics.
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QUICK QUIZZ
4. What is the study of macroeconomics?
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QUICK QUIZZ
5. _______ studies the behavior of individual economic units of an
economy
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QUICK QUIZZ
5. _______ studies the behavior of individual economic units of an
economy
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KEY CONCEPTS
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POTENTIAL OUTPUT
POTENTIAL OUTPUT
Potential outputs - Yp: is the maximum sustainable output
that can be produced without triggering rising inflationary
pressures.
Potential output is the absolute maximum output that an
economy can produce.
In Yp, the economy still has unemployment, which is the
natural unemployment rate (Un).
Potential output is also called full employment output.
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POTENTIAL OUTPUT
POTENTIAL OUTPUT
At the level of potential output there is still unemployment,
which is the natural rate of unemployment.
Yp is the potential output
YT is actual output
Un is the natural unemployment rate
Ut is the actual unemployment rate
YT = Yp then Ut = Un
YT > Yp then Ut < Un
YT < Yp then Ut > Un
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POTENTIAL OUTPUT
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8,000
0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
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1,500
1,000
500
0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
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10 Unemployment rate,
percent of labor force
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0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
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P
The price
level
SRAS
“Short-Run
The model P1 Aggregate
determines the Supply”
eq’m price level “Aggregate
Demand” AD
Y
Y2 Y1
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Y = C + I + G + NX P
Assume G fixed
by govt policy. P2
To understand
the slope of AD,
must determine P1
how a change in P AD
affects C, I, and NX.
Y
Y2 Y1
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Example: P1
A stock market boom
makes households feel
wealthier, C rises, AD2
AD1
the AD curve shifts right.
Y
Y1 Y2
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• Changes in C
• Stock market boom/crash
• Preferences re: consumption/saving tradeoff
• Tax hikes/cuts
• Changes in I
• Firms buy new computers, equipment, factories
• Expectations, optimism/pessimism
• Interest rates, monetary policy
• Investment Tax Credit or other tax incentives
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• Changes in G
• Federal spending, e.g., defense
• State & local spending, e.g., roads, schools
• Changes in NX
• Booms/recessions in countries that buy our exports.
• Appreciation/depreciation resulting from international
speculation in foreign exchange market
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ACTIVE LEARNING 1
The Aggregate-Demand curve
What happens to the AD curve in each of the following
scenarios?
A. A ten-year-old investment tax credit expires.
B. The U.S. exchange rate falls.
C. A fall in prices increases the real value of
consumers’ wealth.
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ACTIVE LEARNING 1
Answers
A. A ten-year-old investment tax credit expires.
I falls, AD curve shifts left.
B. The U.S. exchange rate falls.
NX rises, AD curve shifts right.
C. A fall in prices increases the real value of consumers’
wealth.
Move down along AD curve (wealth-effect).
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AS is:
upward-sloping
in short run
vertical in Y
long run
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Result: AD1990
AD1980
ongoing inflation and Y
Y1980 Y1990 Y2000
growth in output.
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causes an P1
increase in the
quantity of g & s
supplied. Y
Y1 Y2
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Y = YN + a (P – PE)
Output Expected
price level
Natural rate
of output
a > 0,
measures Actual
(long-run) price level
how much Y
responds to
unexpected
changes in P
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SRAS
When P > PE
the expected
PE
price level
When P < PE
Y
YN
Y < YN Y > YN
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Economic Fluctuations
• Caused by events that shift the AD and/or
AS curves.
• Four steps to analyzing economic fluctuations:
1. Determine whether the event shifts AD or AS.
2. Determine whether curve shifts left or right.
3. Use AD-AS diagram to see how the shift changes Y and P
in the short run.
4. Use AD-AS diagram to see how economy
moves from new SR eq’m to new LR eq’m.
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1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
• Y fell 27%
• P fell 22%
• u-rate rose
from 3% to 25%
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1,800
from $9.1 billion 1,600
1,200
• Y rose 90% 1,000
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
• unemp fell
from 17% to 1%
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ACTIVE LEARNING 2
Working with the model
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ACTIVE LEARNING 2
Answers
Event: Boom in Canada P LRAS
1. Affects NX, AD curve SRAS2
2. Shifts AD right
3. SR eq’m at point B. P3 C SRAS1
P and Y higher, P2 B
unemp lower
P1 A AD2
4. Over time, PE rises,
SRAS shifts left, AD1
until LR eq’m at C. Y
YN Y2
Y and unemp back
at initial levels.
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From A to B, stagflation,
a period of AD1
falling output Y
Y 2 YN
and rising prices.
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1973-75 1978-80
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CONCLUSION
• The model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply
helps explain economic fluctuations.
• Keep in mind: these fluctuations are deviations from the
long-run trends explained by the models we learned in
previous chapters.
• In the next chapter, we will learn how policymakers can
affect aggregate demand with fiscal and monetary policy.
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CONCLUSION
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CONCLUSION
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CONCLUSION
• In the short run, output deviates from its natural rate when
the price level is different than expected, leading to an
upward-sloping short-run aggregate supply curve. The three
theories proposed to explain this upward slope are the sticky
wage theory, the sticky price theory, and the misperceptions
theory.
• The short-run aggregate-supply curve shifts in response to
changes in the expected price level and to anything that
shifts the long-run aggregate supply curve.
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CONCLUSION
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CONCLUSION
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