Cellnex: Capital Markets Day Key To Understand Future Value Unlock

Equity Research
European Telecom Services

1 March 2024
Cellnex Telecom
Cellnex: Capital Markets Day key to

CORE
understand future value unlock
Cellnex will host a CMD on 5 March, where new CEO Marco CLNX.MC/CLNX SM EQUAL WEIGHT
Patuano is expected to lay out the strategy for the coming years, Unchanged
European Telecom Services NEUTRAL

in terms of organic and inorganic growth opportunities and Unchanged
balance sheet optimisation. We can see near-term inorganic Price Target EUR 33.00
levers - but we also see structural headwinds to organic growth. Unchanged
Price (28-Feb-24) EUR 33.17

We remain EW. Potential Upside/Downside -0.5%
Value lever 1 - Deleveraging enough to start cash returns and create valuation Market Cap (EUR mn) 23433
floor. Finding the right valuation and/or multiple for Cellnex is not easy. We use a combination Shares Outstanding (mn) 706.48
of DCF-based SOTP, EV/EBITDAaL multiples and RLFCF yields (recurring levered FCF). Our price Free Float (%) 72.70
target is €33/share, similar to current levels. Looking at FCF for valuation is not trivial - CLNX's 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 1.2
leverage is high (2023 net debt:EBITDA of 7.3x), and the company is targeting deleveraging via Dividend Yield (%) N/A
M&A to move towards 7x (or even 6x) before returning cash to shareholders. Deleveraging is not Return on Equity TTM (%) 0.08
helped by the existing BTS commitments, and also Cellnex's apparent desire to pursue ground Current BVPS (EUR) 19.47
lease buyouts (GLBOs) to drive greater opex/lease efficiencies. Clearly, M&A (disposals) would Source: Bloomberg
hasten this - we note press speculation around potential Ireland, Austria and Poland disposals
(could suggest €2-4bn net proceeds), and reduction of leverage to c6-6.5x. Should Cellnex return Price Performance Exchange-MCE
70-80% of reported FCF to shareholders from 2025e (as per many EU Telcos) we estimate 52 Week range EUR 38.88-25.99
a c€0.8-1.5/share dividend - or c2-4% yield, thus providing something of a floor on valuation. We
model €1.0/share from 2024e.
Value lever 2 - Driving cost efficiencies. Independent European TowerCo's typically have high
EBITDA margins and strong recurring revenue streams. The impact from worsening macro and
inflation has been relatively limited given the nature of the contracts with the mobile operators,
and energy costs are also typically a pass-through. But when looking at what represents "best in
Source: IDC
class", we do see that different reporting structures make comparisons complex. As well as the Link to Barclays Live for interactive charting
business being defensive to macro shocks, we do see a cost opportunity for Cellnex. We do
believe Inwit remains the benchmark for TowerCo efficiency, but our research points to
significant cost opportunities at Cellnex - mostly through driving lower lease costs (and also
Maurice Patrick
Spain opex). We see a c€100m/year medium-term cost opportunity, with potential additional +44 (0)20 3134 3622
upside from lease renegotiations. maurice.patrick@barclays.com
Barclays, UK
Value lever 3 - Driving colocation. A detailed analysis of mobile data traffic across Europe
points to a likely slowing over the next two years, with mobile operators retaining material Mathieu Robilliard
+44 (0)20 3134 3288
mathieu.robilliard@barclays.com
Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies BBI, Paris
covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a Ganesha Nagesha
conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this +91 (0)22 6175 1712
report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. ganesha.nagesha@barclays.com
This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based Barclays, UK
outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA.
Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 37.
Completed: 29-Feb-24, 22:09 GMT Released: 01-Mar-24, 04:00 GMT Restricted - External
Barclays | Cellnex Telecom
excess capacity from new 5G spectrum. With the 5G business case still unproven, we do not
believe there will be any material radio site build in 2024/2025 for capacity reasons, with much
of the BTS build being limited to extending rural coverage. Portugal and Belgium are exceptions,
given new operator build plans. In Germany we note most of the 1&1 build is new sites rather
than colocation-driven. As such, we believe that TowerCos will struggle to grow their tenancy
ratios in the next 12-24 months. Indeed, with possible four-to-three consolidation, we see a risk
that tenancy ratios could contract in some cases. For Cellnex we believe one key value unlock
would be conversion of BTS to colocation, but in our view this would seem to be more of a
"defensive" move than one that unlocks new growth.
1 March 2024 2
CONTENTS
The Story in 6 Charts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Cellnex: 4Q23 results recap. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Cellnex - Value lever 1: Delever balance sheet, prioritise cash returns. . 7
Deleveraging in focus - M&A optionality. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Cellnex - Value lever 2: Driving cost efficiencies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Dissecting and comparing TowerCo profitability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Comparing Revenue and profitability per site. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Opex deep dive. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Tenancy ratios and relative profitability in focus. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Addressing lease costs remains the major opportunity - and clearly will be a focus in the coming
years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Cellnex - Value lever 3: Driving colocation - We see near-term headwinds

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Mobile data traffic in focus – Annual growth rate continues to ease. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Fixed data traffic in focus – Growth remains steady after COVID-19 WFH boost. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Understanding whether there's a need for mobile operators to densify their networks. . . . . . . . 19
Implications for TowerCos. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
We do see M&A risk for colocation growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Focus on pan-EU TowerCo forecasts – Our market model suggests modest Tower and colocation
growth going forwards. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Spain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Italy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
France. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
UK. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Switzerland. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Netherlands. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Sweden. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Denmark. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Portugal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Austria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Cellnex – estimates and valuation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
1 March 2024 3
CLNX.MC: Financial and Valuation Metrics EPS EUR
FY Dec 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

EPS -0.31A -0.31A -0.17E 0.20E 0.46E
Previous EPS -0.31A -0.40E -0.19E 0.19E N/A
Consensus EPS -0.44A -0.39E -0.20E -0.02E N/A
P/E N/A N/A N/A N/A 71.5
Consensus numbers are from Bloomberg received on 29-Feb-2024; 13:53 GMT
Source: Barclays Research
1 March 2024 4
European Telecom Services NEUTRAL
Cellnex Telecom (CLNX.MC) EQUAL WEIGHT
Income statement (€mn) 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E CAGR Price (28-Feb-2024) EUR 33.17
Revenue 4,052 4,289 4,660 4,919 6.7% Price Target EUR 33.00
EBITDA 2,926 3,180 3,495 3,707 8.2% Why EQUAL WEIGHT?
EBIT 374 677 1,053 1,322 52.4% We believe Cellnex is likely to be
Finance costs - net -808 -852 -896 -934 N/A active in (and benefit from)
Pre-tax income -437 -178 155 385 N/A consolidation in the fragmented
Tax rate (%) 28 20 20 20 -10.2% and immature European tower
Net income -297 -138 128 313 N/A market. Continued tenancy ratio
EPS (adj) (€) -0.31 -0.17 0.20 0.46 N/A growth should help drive organic
Diluted shares (mn) 706.0 706.0 706.0 706.0 0.0% EBITDA growth whilst Cellnex still
DPS (€) 0.08 1.00 1.10 1.21 150.5% sees M&A opportunities. We also see
increasing opportunities in fibre,
Margin and return data 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E Average
small cells and edge computing,
EBITDA margin (%) 72.2 74.1 75.0 75.4 74.2 which could offer further upside.
EBIT margin (%) 9.2 15.8 22.6 26.9 18.6
Pre-tax margin (%) -10.8 -4.1 3.3 7.8 -0.9 Upside case EUR 65.00
Net margin (%) -7.3 -3.2 2.7 6.4 -0.4 Our upside case is based on the
Operating CF margin (%) 34.4 26.3 37.4 45.2 35.8 assumption that Cellnex is able to
ROCE (%) 0.8 1.4 2.2 2.8 1.8 realise additional EBITDA from
small cells, fibre to the tower, edge
RONTA (%) 3.1 5.2 8.3 11.5 7.0
computing and further M&A.
ROA (%) 0.7 1.3 2.0 2.6 1.7
ROE (%) -1.5 -0.9 1.0 2.5 0.3 Downside case EUR 25.00
Cash flow and balance sheet (€mn) 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E CAGR Our downside case assumes TV
Cash flow from operations 1,430 1,752 1,997 2,154 14.6% channels in Spain broadcast by
Cellnex infrastructure are turned off
Capex and acquisitions -1,754 -2,388 -1,753 -1,481 N/A
and that some contracts that are up
Free cash flow -97 -621 259 687 N/A
for renewal in the coming years
NOPAT 330 553 855 1,070 48.0%
raise concerns around pricing risk.
Tangible fixed assets 10,735 10,278 9,296 8,223 -8.5%
Intangible fixed assets 19,788 19,788 19,788 19,788 0.0% Upside/Downside scenarios
Cash and equivalents 382 -30 -466 -372 N/A
Total assets 42,855 42,026 40,829 40,028 -2.2%
Short and long-term debt 18,051 18,051 18,051 18,051 0.0%
Other long-term liabilities 2,062 2,062 2,062 2,062 0.0%
Total liabilities 28,240 27,601 26,959 26,599 -2.0%
Net debt/(funds) 20,102 20,418 20,976 21,014 1.5%
Shareholders' equity 13,969 13,780 13,201 12,736 -3.0%
Valuation and leverage metrics 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E Average
P/E (adj) (x) N/A N/A N/A 71.5 71.5
Prop. EV/EBITDA 17.1 16.4 14.8 13.8 15.5
Prop. EV/OpFCF 35.5 47.5 30.1 23.0 34.0
Prop. EFCF yield (%) 0.7 -0.6 1.7 3.6 1.4
P/BV (x) 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7
Dividend yield (%) 0.2 3.0 3.3 3.6 2.6
Total debt/capital (%) 55.3 55.6 56.6 57.4 56.2
Net debt/EBITDA (x) 6.9 6.4 6.0 5.7 6.2
Selected operating metrics 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E Average
Total towers 111,409 116,197 119,809 123,446 117,715
Total tenants 51,083 55,126 57,257 59,039 55,626
AFFO (€mn) 1,545 1,643 1,899 2,050 1,784
Note: FY End Dec
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Barclays Research
1 March 2024 5
The Story in 6 Charts

FIGURE 1. Europe: Average mobile data consumption (GB/pop/mth) FIGURE 2. Europe: Average fixed data consumption (GB/pop/mth)
Data Usage Growth Data/Pop Growth (%)

16.0 70% (GB)
140 80%
14.0 60% 70%
120
12.0 60%
50% 100
10.0 50%
40% 80
8.0 40%
30% 60 117 126
6.0 101 30%
20% 40 20%
4.0 62
20 36 46 10%
2.0 10% 27
0 0%
0.0 0%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
EU Average (GB/pop/mth) EU Average (y/y growth %)
EU GB/pop/month Annual Growth (%)
Source: Company data, regulator data, Barclays Research Source: Company data, regulator data, Barclays Research
FIGURE 3. Cellnex: Sites/tenancy ratio (000/x) FIGURE 4. INWIT: Sites/tenancy ratio (000/x)
Sites (000) T ratio (x) Sites (000) T ratio (x)

120 1.8 24 2.3
1.6 24
100 2.3
1.4 24
80 1.2 2.2
23
1.0
60 23 2.2
0.8
40 0.6 23 2.1
0.4 23
20 2.1
0.2 23
0 0.0 2.0
22
1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23
22 2.0
Axis Title
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
Spain Italy
France ROE
Group TR (x) Portugal TR (x) Organic Number of Sites (000) Tenancy Ratio (x)
Source: Company data, Barclays Research Source: Company data, Barclays Research
2023E
2024E
2026E
2027E
2029E
2030E
2025E
2028E
2022
FIGURE 5. Europe: Total towers by market FIGURE 6. Europe: Total tenants by market
France Spain Italy Belgium
600,000 900,000
Portugal Sweden Norway Finland
Greece Other Europe
700,000
400,000
500,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
2023E
2024E
2025E
2026E
2027E
2028E
2029E
2030E
2019
2020
2021
2022
0 -100,000
2023E
2024E
2025E
2026E
2027E
2028E
2029E
2030E
2019
2020
2021
2022
UK Germany France Spain UK Germany France Spain

Italy Belgium Netherlands Switzerland Italy Belgium Netherlands Switzerland
Portugal Sweden Norway Finland Portugal Sweden Norway Finland
1 March 2024 6
Cellnex: 4Q23 results recap

Cellnex reported 4Q23 results broadly in line with expectations. Revenues of €1,046m was
slightly ahead of our €1,034m estimate and company consensus of €1,020m. Adj. EBITDA of
€760m was in line with our €759m estimate and consensus at €760m. RLFCF of €376m was €9m
below our €385m estimate, but again in line with consensus. Net debt came in slightly higher
than our estimate. Cellnex will wait for March 5th to give 2024 guidance.
FIGURE 7. Cellnex 4Q23 Results vs. Barclays, Consensus
Source: Unless otherwise stated, sources are company reports and Barclays Research estimates. Company consensus.
Cellnex - Value lever 1: Delever balance sheet,

prioritise cash returns
Finding the right valuation and/or multiple for Cellnex is not easy. We use a combination of DCF-
based SOTP, EV/EBITDAaL multiples and RLFCF yields (recurring levered FCF). CLNX leverage is
high (2023 net debt:EBITDA of 7.3x), and the company is targeting deleveraging via M&A to get
towards 7x (or even 6x). Deleveraging is not helped, however, by the existing BTS commitments,
and also Cellnex's apparent desire to pursue ground lease buyouts (GLBOs) to drive greater
opex/lease efficiencies. We note press speculation around potential Ireland, Austria and Poland
disposals (could suggest €2-4bn net proceeds), and thus for illustrative purposes show
proforma leverage towards 6-6.5x.
1 March 2024 7
Deleveraging in focus - M&A optionality

Cellnex is reportedly considering the disposal (partial or full) of a number of assets. The disposal
process is generally seen by investors as part of a wider divestment plan to reduce debt and
achieve S&P investment grade. According to Expansión (here), Cellnex has not yet decided
whether to keep a minority holding or to go for complete disposal of these assets. In an
interview with Expansión at the end of 2023, Cellnex CEO Marco Patuano had said that if the
company did not find the possibility of growth, then it would think of exiting the market.
• Cellnex – Nordic unit minority sale complete. Stonepeak has completed the acquisition of
a 49% interest in Cellnex Sweden and Cellnex Denmark operations for a total value of €730m,
of which €558m is recognized up front. The valuation multiple was 24x 2024E EV/EBITDAaL in
total (EV of €1.5bn), although this does result in a meaningful minority leakage over time. The
Cellnex Nordics network currently consists of approximately 4,600 sites across Sweden and
Denmark, with additional commitments and options to build and operate more than 2,400
additional sites in the region.
• Cellnex – Evaluates Austria unit divestment. According to news daily Expansión (01
February 2024), Cellnex has hired financial advisors to evaluate strategic alternatives,
including the sale, of its subsidiary in Austria, which was reported in the Expansión article to
be valued at just over €800m, implying 18.5x LTM EV/EBITDAaL. As we detailed in a previous
report (Cellnex Telecom: New CEO/TowerCo efficiency in focus, 05 June 2023), with three
major Telcos sitting on three independent TowerCos in Austria we see limited scope for
material tenancy growth in the absence of major Tower rationalisation. As such the
potential disposal would be broadly in line with our expectation of Cellnex potentially
divesting assets that are non-core, or have no route to drive high levels of tenancy growth.
For more detail on the Austrian TowerCo market and the key players, please
see EuroTeleSites: Positive optionality - Initiate at OW, 19 October 2023.
• Cellnex – Bids for Ireland unit expected by next week. According to Reuters sources (here,
13 February 2024), SBA Communications, Phoenix Tower and Asterion Industrial Partners are
vying to bid for Cellnex's Irish unit, which the company has put up for strategic review.
Binding offers from the three parties were expected the week of 19 February 2024 (i.e. last
week). We note that Cellnex's Ireland unit has around 2k sites and the article suggests a
valuation close to €1bn for the unit. As CLNX Ireland reported LTM (last 12 months) EBITDAaL
of €41m, this level would imply an EV/EBITDAaL multiple of 24.5x.
• Cellnex to sell minority stake in Poland at c20x EV/EBITDAaL? Press reports (Bloomberg,
26 February 2024) (here) suggest that GIP, KKR and Macquarie are all in talks regarding a
potential minority stake in Cellnex’s Polish operations. The article suggests a €4bn valuation
for the asset, which, given last 12 months EBITDAaL was €199m, implies c20x EV/EBITDAaL.
The article suggests that a new investor could help Cellnex “raise fresh capital for growth”, as
opposed to divesting any of its current holdings in the asset. None of the parties named
commented on the press article. Assuming the asset is levered 6x and applying the valuation
above, assuming a c25%-50% equity stake could imply €0.7bn-€1.4bn net proceeds for
deleveraging.
• Cellnex to create JV for buying land leases? Press reports (TMT finance, 21 Feb 2024)
suggest that Cellnex is considering the sale of ground-lease assets in Spain, and possibly
in Poland/Italy via separate vehicle. In our view we do see the industrial logic for Cellnex to
pursue cost/lease efficiencies (see later in this report for more on this), and hence we
believe the creation of a joint venture vehicle to perform this could potentially be structured
in a way to minimise cash outflows.
1 March 2024 8
Cellnex - Value lever 2: Driving cost efficiencies

The independent European TowerCo's typically have high EBITDA margins and strong recurring
revenue streams. The impact from worsening macro and inflation has been relatively limited given
the nature of the contracts with the mobile operators, and energy costs are also typically a pass-
through. But when looking at what represents "best in class", we do see that different reporting
structures make comparisons complex. We do believe Inwit remains the benchmark for
TowerCo efficiency, but our research points to significant cost opportunities at Cellnex - mostly
through driving lower lease costs (and also Spain opex).
Dissecting and comparing TowerCo profitability

Comparing the cost structures of the European TowerCos requires a normalising of revenues
and costs. For example, Inwit reports revenues and EBITDA with no energy pass-through.
Vantage was broadly similar when listed. Cellnex reports revenues with the energy component,
although it does provide the "ex energy" margin and energy cost per market. All report EBITDA
both excluding and including ground leases, and most to some extent report employee costs by
market, allowing for an assessment of the running costs per site, including and excluding
wages.
• Inwit - Best-in-class profitability. For the year to December 2022, Inwit reported a best-in-
class 91% EBITDA margin. This excludes leases and energy revenues/costs. Total opex (ex
leases/energy) was c€74m in 2022, and the total labour cost was €21.4m. As such we estimate
total opex per site of €3.2k/year which includes labour costs of c€0.93k per site per year, and
an average of 91 sites per employee.
• Vantage Towers - higher margin, lower revenues per site. For the year to March 2022,
Vantage Towers reported an 85% EBITDA margin. This also excludes leases, but includes
passive energy revenues/costs (active energy costs are a pass-through and accounted for on a
net basis). At the group level we estimate opex per site of €2.9k/year (excl. energy) for the year
to March 2022, with 100 sites per employee, and a wage bill of c€1.0k/year per site at the
group level, broadly similar to Inwit. We note that Vantage does give some granularity by
market which allows comparisons by country. Indeed we estimate 98/183/63/94 sites per
employee in Germany/Spain/Greece/Other, and we estimate opex per site of
€3.8k, €1.9k, €2.1k and €1.4k (excl. energy), respectively.
• Cellnex - Reporting structure is more complex given inorganic activity. For the year to
December 2022, Cellnex reported a 75% EBITDA margin. However, this included an
energy pass-through amount (revenues and opex) for FY22 of c€315m, which depresses the
margin. Indeed Cellnex indicated in the results presentation that the EBITDA margin was 81%
without pass-through. As an aside, this figure strips out pure pass-throughs but does not
include the Utility fee, which is also recovered from the MNOs although it is not strictly a pass-
through. If we removed this, the ex-pass-through margin would be c2pp higher, i.e. c83%.
• Cellnex - Some countries imply scope for cost efficiencies. Cellnex reports granular data
for Spain, France and Italy, although the rest of the portfolio is grouped in "Other". We see
c8/88/82/45 average sites per employee in Spain/France/Italy/Other, and we estimate opex
per site of €22.8k, €2.6k, €2.4k and €4.1k (excl. energy), respectively. Spain data is impacted
by HQ costs, emergency networks and the Broadcast estate. Cellnex does provide a
breakdown by country which allows us to extend our analysis to their non-core markets. We
estimate that Austria, Sweden and Switzerland have the highest average sites per employee
at c179/126/104 with estimated opex per site of €2.8k/€1.3k/€3.4k (excl energy), respectively.
The fewest average sites per employee are found in the UK, Poland and Netherlands with
c27/31/39 and estimated opex per site of €7k/€3.8k/€6.4k (excl energy), respectively. We base
1 March 2024 9
our FY22 assumptions on a weighted-average number of sites and employees in the year. Each
weighting is dependent on the point during the year in which new sites were acquired. We
believe this normalises the number of sites/employees for the detailed metrics.
• This can be seen in the chart below that shows the 2022 EBITDA (ex leases, ex energy) margin
per country. Best-in-class EBITDA margins of >90% are in Sweden/Italy/France (Cellnex), Italy
(Inwit) and Greece (Vantage Towers). The markets with the lowest margins are Cellnex Spain
(due to HQ costs), then Cellnex's NL and UK businesses, with 79%/83% respective EBITDA
margins.
FIGURE 8. FY22 EBITDA margin (ex energy) per country (%)
100% 93% 92% 92% 92% 91% 91% 90% 88% 88% 87% 86% 85% 84% 84% 83%
90% 79%
80%
70%
55%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Note: VT is a March YE company thus any FY22 data pertaining to VT relates to the March 2022 YE
Comparing Revenue and profitability per site

Looking simply at EBITDA margins is a very helpful guide to TowerCo profitability, but this is
also impacted by the MSA (master service agreement) and tenancy ratio, and is not necessarily
a good guide for cost efficiency. In this section we dive into the individual TowerCo cost bases -
to evaluate opex per site (excluding energy). To get this we assess the revenue (stripping out any
energy element), and then remove EBITDA.
• Cellnex has a wider variance in revenue per site, due to different MSA structures across
its markets. As can been seen in Figures 8 and 9 below, Cellnex's UK market appears to
generate the most revenue per site at c€45k (c€41k ex energy). Cellnex's Italy division is the
second-highest grossing including energy pass-through at €35.6k revenue per site but slips
into seventh-highest grossing at €28.5k per site when we exclude energy. Cellnex Italy's
energy pass-through in FY22 totalled €146m (implying c€7k per site). Excluding energy, Inwit
generates the second-highest revenue per site at €36.8k. Of Cellnex's core markets, France
appears to generate the lowest energy cost/revenue of c€0.5k per site. Outside of Cellnex's
core markets, the U.K. generates the highest energy bill/revenue of c€4.4k per site, closely
followed by Poland at c€3.8k per site. We note Cellnex's Spain division actually generates the
most revenue per site at €54.6k (€50.7k ex pass-through), but we note that this is inflated by
revenues relating to HQ and broadcast infrastructure, and so is not so relevant here.
• Vantage Towers typically has lower revenue per site, reflecting the Vodafone MSA
structure (and lower tenancy ratios). Greece is Vantage's highest grossing market, earning
€28.1k (€27.5k excl. energy) revenue per site, followed by Germany at €25.4k (€24.8k excl.
energy) revenue per site. Vantage Towers' Other Europe division is the lowest grossing, both
including and excluding energy pass-through, at €16.4k/€15.8k revenue per site, respectively.
1 March 2024 10
FIGURE 9. FY22 revenue (inc energy) per site (€000) FIGURE 10. FY22 revenue (ex energy) per site (€000)
50.0 45.2 45.0 40.8

45.0 36.8
40.0
32.2 31.2 30.7
40.0 35.6 35.0 29.2 28.5 27.5
35.0 32.2 31.9 31.7 30.0 24.8 23.7
29.2 28.1 21.5 21.3
30.0 27.5
25.4
25.0 19.4
17.6 17.5 15.8
23.7 20.0
25.0 21.3 20.1 20.0
17.5 16.4 15.0
20.0 10.0
15.0 5.0
10.0 0.0
5.0
UK (Cellnex)
Italy (Inwit)
Greece (VT)
Ireland (Cellnex)
Switzerland (Cellnex)
Austria (Cellnex)
ROE (VT)
Netherlands (Cellnex)
Germany (VT)
Poland (Cellnex)
Denmark (Cellnex)
Italy (Cellnex)
Portugal (Cellnex)
Spain (VT)
France (Cellnex)
Sweden (Cellnex)
0.0
Note: VT is a March YE company thus any FY22 data pertaining to VT relates to the Note: VT is a March YE company thus any FY22 data pertaining to VT relates to the
March 2022 YE March 2022 YE
Source: Barclays Research Source: Barclays Research
Inwit has the highest EBITDA per site, followed by many of the CLNX estates. We estimate
EBITDA per site by taking the FY22 reported EBITDA and dividing by the weighted average
number of sites for the year. We can see by Figure 10 that, on our estimates, despite generating
the highest revenue per site, Cellnex's U.K. division is marginally behind Inwit on EBITDA per
site of €33.7k vs €34k, respectively. Comparatively, Cellnex's Italy division generates €26.1k
EBITDA per site. Cellnex's lowest performing assets appear to be in Austria and Sweden,
generating c€14.7k/€16.3k EBITDA per site, respectively. Again, our estimates show that
Vantage's Other Europe division is the lowest performing with EBITDA of €14.5k per site. Again,
Greece is Vantage's highest performing market followed by Germany, generating €25.4k/€20.9k
EBITDA per site. However, as we show in Figure 10 below, EBITDA is not the best metric for
assessing site efficiency, as it ignores the structure of the MSA, which could have high or low
revenues per site depending on the structure of the deal.
FIGURE 11. FY22 EBITDA per site (€000)
40.0
34.0 33.7
35.0
28.6 28.0 27.3
30.0 26.1 25.8 25.4 24.3
25.0 20.9 19.9 18.8 18.5 17.5
20.0 16.3 14.7 14.5
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Opex deep dive

Despite generating some of the highest revenue / EBITDA per site both including and excluding
energy pass-through, Cellnex's U.K. division has one of the lowest FY22 EBITDA margins of 83%
(excl. energy), just ahead of their Netherlands division on 79% and the Spanish division at 55%
(diluted due to HQ related costs, emergency network and broadcast infrastructure). This is on
account of the UK division's notably high opex of c€11.4k/year per site (c€7k/year excl. energy).
Cellnex Italy's relatively high opex per site of c€9.5k/year is again explained by the energy pass-
1 March 2024 11
through as it falls to c€2.4k/year (the lower end of the range) once this is removed. Excluding
energy, Cellnex's Sweden division generated the lowest opex/site of €1.3k/year for FY22, lower
than Vantage's Other Europe division which generated €1.4k opex/year per site. Inwit's Opex (ex
energy) was close to the midpoint of the group's range at c€3.2k/year per site on FY22 numbers.
Vantage's EBITDA margins (excl. energy) across divisions, aside from Germany, are all within the
upper half of the range with their Greece business generating the second-highest EBITDA
margin (excl. energy) of c92%, just behind Cellnex Sweden at 93%. This is on account of the
division's low opex of €2.1k/year per site (ex energy). Vantage's Germany business generates
much higher opex per site of €3.8k/year (excl. energy) which results in its lower EBITDA margin
(excl. energy) of c85%. Germany is likely impacted by associated HQ costs.
FIGURE 12. TowerCo FY22 OpEx (inc energy) per site/year (€000) FIGURE 13. TowerCo FY22 OpEx (ex energy) per site/year (€000)
14.0 8.0 7.0

11.4 6.4
12.0 7.0
9.5 6.0
10.0 7.6 7.6
8.0 5.0 4.2
3.8 3.8
3.4
5.3 4.0 3.2 3.0
6.0 4.4 4.2 3.8 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4
3.4 3.1 2.8 2.7 3.0 2.1 1.9
4.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.4 1.3
2.0 1.0
0.0 0.0
UK (Cellnex)
Greece (VT)
Sweden (Cellnex)
ROE (VT)
Germany (VT)
Ireland (Cellnex)
Austria (Cellnex)
Spain (VT)
Poland (Cellnex)
France (Cellnex)
Italy (Cellnex)
Denmark (Cellnex)
Portugal (Cellnex)
Austria (Cellnex)
Greece (VT)
ROE (VT)
UK (Cellnex)
Denmark (Cellnex)
Italy (Cellnex)
Germany (VT)
Italy (Inwit)
France (Cellnex)
Sweden (Cellnex)
Ireland (Cellnex)
Poland (Cellnex)
Spain (VT)
Portugal (Cellnex)
The above charts include wage bills, but it is possible to back out the implied headcount
efficiency based upon reported data. Cellnex and Vantage report staff costs for each of their
main markets. For "Other" we apportion a share of "Other" staff costs by each division's share
of employees (implying the same cost per employee). We then look at average sites per
employee, adjusting for M&A where appropriate.
90-100 sites per employee appears best in class (though there are exceptions). Figures 13
and 14 show us that the high opex per site in Cellnex's U.K. business is partly explained by their
high wage cost per site of c€2.8k/year (c40% of opex excl. energy), the highest amongst peers
for FY22 (excluding Cellnex Spain). The elevated wage cost per site is a result of the division
spreading their staff across the fewest sites. On our estimates, Cellnex's U.K. business had an
average ratio of 27x sites per employee in FY22, in contrast to their Austria business which had
an average of 179x sites per employee and the lowest wage cost per site of €0.4k/year (c14% of
opex per site excl. energy). Cellnex's Poland division is comparable the U.K.'s with the second-
lowest average number of sites per employee of 31x and second-highest annual wage cost per
site of €2.3k per site (c61% of opex per site ex energy), although we note that the active
equipment management deal in Poland will likely have an impact on Cellnex's sites/employee
metric. Inwit's average sites per employee ratio was c91x for FY22 with a wage cost per site of
€0.9k/year (c30% of opex per site ex energy). We observe that Inwit's wage cost per site is
broadly in line with our estimate for Cellnex Italy's wage cost per site of c€1k/year. We estimate
that Vantage's Greece business managed to maintain a low annual wage cost per site of €0.8k
(c40% opex per site ex energy) despite having a low average site to employee ratio of 63x.
1 March 2024 12
Vantage's Spain business had the highest average sites per employee in FY22 at 183x and, as
a result, one of the lowest annual wage costs per site of €0.3k (c16% opex per site ex energy).
FIGURE 14. TowerCo FY22 average Towers per employee by market FIGURE 15. TowerCo FY22 Wage cost per site/year (€000)
200 183 179 3.0 2.8

180 2.3
160 2.5
140 126 1.8 1.7
104 98 97 94 2.0 1.6
120 91 87 82 1.3
100 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.9
80 63 56
47 38 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7
60 31 27 0.5 0.4
40 0.5 0.3
20
0 0.0
ROE (VT)
Denmark (Cellnex)
UK (Cellnex)
Austria (Cellnex)
Germany (VT)
Greece (VT)
Italy (Inwit)
France (Cellnex)
Poland (Cellnex)
Italy (Cellnex)
Spain (VT)
Portugal (Cellnex)
Sweden (Cellnex)
Ireland (Cellnex)
UK (Cellnex)
France (Cellnex)
Greece (VT)
Italy (Inwit)
ROE (VT)
Austria (Cellnex)
Germany (VT)
Ireland (Cellnex)
Poland (Cellnex)
Denmark (Cellnex)
Italy (Cellnex)
Portugal (Cellnex)
Spain (VT)
Sweden (Cellnex)
When looking at opex excluding wages, Cellnex's NL/UK assets are outliers. If we remove
both energy pass-through and staff costs from the opex analysis above, we see that Cellnex's
Netherlands division has the highest annual opex per site of €4.7k per site in FY22, followed
by its U.K. division at €4.2k per site. In the case of the Netherlands, we note that there are also
broadcasting and datacentres as part of the NL franchise that could have some impact. In the
UK, we believe the higher staff costs are likely an Arqiva legacy. Cellnex's Sweden business
comes in lowest at €0.6k per site. When we remove both energy pass-through and staff costs,
Cellnex Poland's FY22 opex falls from the higher to the lower end of the range at €1.4k per site,
implying that human capital is the division's main source of inefficiency (likely due to the active
network deal, in our view). Despite removing energy and wages from Opex,
Cellnex's Netherlands and U.K. segments remain high at c€1.5k-c€2k above Cellnex Switzerland,
the third highest. Inwit remains around the midpoint of the range, significantly higher than
Cellnex Italy at c€2.3k/€1.4k per site, respectively. Most of Vantage Tower's divisions look
relatively cost efficient, leaning towards the lower end of the range with respect to opex
excluding energy and wages with the exception of Germany at c€2.2k per site. Again, we assume
this is due to HQ-related costs in Germany. Vantage's Other Europe division was lowest at c€0.9k
per site, followed by Greece at c€1.4k per site.
FIGURE 16. FY22 non-wage OpEx per site (ex energy) (€000)
5.0 4.7
4.5 4.2
4.0
3.5
3.0 2.7 2.7
2.4 2.3 2.2
2.5 1.8
2.0 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4
1.5 0.9
1.0 0.6
0.5
0.0
1 March 2024 13
Tenancy ratios and relative profitability in focus

All the TowerCos indicate that the end goal is higher tenancy ratios - which drives higher
margins and higher ROCE. Looking at the below, it is clear that as of 1Q23 Inwit,
Cellnex Spain and Vantage Towers Spain are best-in-class for tenancy ratios at c2.2x/2x/1.8x,
respectively, and Cellnex Denmark, Poland and Austria are lowest at 1.1x/1.15x/1.16x,
respectively. This transpires in the ex energy EBITDA margins (as discussed above) as we see
Inwit and Vantage Towers Spain with a high FY22 margin of 90%-91% and Cellnex's U.K., Poland
and Austria divisions with margins of 83%-84%. The exception to this is Cellnex Spain due to
lower margin broadcast infrastructure and HQ-related costs as discussed above. We note that
Inwit has sequentially grown its tenancy ratio from c1.9x in 1Q21 to 2.2x in 1Q23 with EBITDA
margins (ex energy) expanding accordingly from c90.9% in 1Q21 to c91.5% in 1Q23. We see that
Cellnex Portugal's tenancy ratio has increased considerably from c1.2x in 1Q21 to 1.4x in 1Q23
with EBITDA (excl energy) expanding from c80% to c91% in the respective periods.
FIGURE 17. Tenancy ratio: 1Q21 vs 1Q23
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1Q21 1Q23
Note: For Vantage Towers we display March 21 for 1Q21 and December 22 numbers for 1Q23 given that March 23 numbers
are not reported.
When looking at the correlation of EBITDA margin by market (excl energy) and tenancy ratio, we
would expect to see the highest EBITDA margins in the markets with highest tenancy ratio, due
to the higher operating leverage, although the structure of the MSA is also clearly key. We
believe Cellnex Portugal and Inwit both demonstrate this (discussed above).
1 March 2024 14
FIGURE 18. FY22 EBITDA margin ex energy(%) vs FY22 tenancy ratio (x)
2.2
Italy (Inwit)
2.0
Tenancy ratio (x)

1.8 Spain (VT)
Ireland (Cellnex) Greece (VT)
1.6
Italy (Cellnex)
Netherlands
1.4 ROE (VT)
(Cellnex) UK (Cellnex) Portugal (Cellnex)
ROE (Cellnex)
Germany (VT) Sweden (Cellnex)
1.2 Austria (Cellnex) Switzerland (Cellnex) France (Cellnex)
Poland (Cellnex) Denmark (Cellnex)
1.0
78% 80% 82% 84% 86% 88% 90% 92% 94%
EBITDA margin ex energy (%)
We see a c€50m uplift (+2%) to Cellnex's FY22 EBITDA under a 90% EBITDA margin (excl
energy) across the portfolio - Spain held constant. If we apply a 90% EBITDA margin (excl
energy) to each of Cellnex's markets (excl Spain which we keep flat due to the HQ costs) we see
a decline in core/larger markets such as France (-2%) and Italy (-2%), but this is offset by the
gains in Cellnex's other markets. The Netherlands and U.K. increase the most by c+14%/+9%,
which contributes an additional c€14m/€25m EBITDA to the group, respectively. Poland and
Austria's EBITDA also increases significantly under a 90% EBITDA margin scenario (ex energy) by
+€21m/+€5m, respectively (c+7%). Under a 90% EBITDA margin (excl energy) we see an increase
to Cellnex's FY22 group EBITDA of c+2% which translates to a c+€50m uplift. We hold Spain's
EBITDA constant at FY22 levels in this analysis.
FIGURE 19. Cellnex's FY22 EBITDA (excl energy ) under a 85%/90% FIGURE 20. Cellnex: Increase in FY22 EBITDA (excl energy) under a
margin assumption by market - Spain held constant 85%/90% margin assumption by market
1,400 15% 14%

9%
EBITDA (€m) (excl energy)
1,200 10% 8% 7% 7%
6%
4% 5%
1,000 5% 3% 2% 2% 1% 2%
0% 1%
800 0%
600 -2% -2% -1%
-5% -2% -3%
-4% -4% -3%
400
-10% -7% -7%
-8%
200
Austria
Group
Netherlands
ROE
UK
Sweden
France
Italy
Switzerland
Portugal
Ireland
Denmark
Poland
0
ROE France Italy
FY22A
85% EBITDA margin (excl energy) 85% EBITDA margin (excl energy)
Note: Spain Ebitda is kept constant at FY22 reported levels

Source: Barclays Research estimates Source: Barclays Research estimates
If we then conduct the same analysis but also apply the 90% EBITDA margin (excl energy) to
Spain then we arrive at +9% at the group level, which translates to c€235m. At a 90% EBITDA
margin (excl energy) Spain would contribute an additional €185m to group FY22 EBITDA. Given
the Spain-specific opex burden of HQ, Broadcast and Emergency Network costs, we would view
this target as overly ambitious, although that is not to say that we do not see material cost
opportunities in Spain, which would thus to us imply an EBITDA upside at c€100m/year. This
would equate to c3% of 2023e EBITDA, and c6% of 2023e RLFCF.
1 March 2024 15
FIGURE 21. Cellnex's FY22 EBITDA (excl energy ) under a 85%/90% FIGURE 22. Cellnex: Increase in FY22 EBITDA (excl energy ) under a
margin assumption by market 85%/90% margin assumption by market
1,400 70% 65%

56%
60%
EBITDA (€m) (excl energy)
1,200 50%
40%
1,000
30%
20% 14%
800 6% 8% 3%9% 7% 7% 9%
10% 0% 2% 4% 2% 1% 5% 1% 3%
600 0%
-10% -2% -2% -1% -3%
400 -20% -7% -7% -4% -2% -4% -8%
200
0
ROE Spain France Italy
FY22A 85% EBITDA margin (excl energy)
85% EBITDA margin (excl energy)
Addressing lease costs remains the major opportunity - and clearly will be
a focus in the coming years
As we show below, we believe there are some areas for cost improvement at Cellnex, such as
Spain (HQ), and Netherlands/UK (opex/wages). However, with opex costs typically c€2-4k/year/
site and lease costs more than twice this level, it is no surprise to see the TowerCos continuing
to target ground lease buyout (GLBO) and rent renegotiations to drive down this cost line.
In comparing TowerCos' relative lease costs, below we show lease cost per site for 2021 and
2022. Figure 22 shows that Vantage Towers' Greece business appears to have paid the highest
annual lease cost per site in both FY21 and FY22 (March 2021/2022 YE) at c€12.6k/€15k. This is
followed by Cellnex Switzerland at c€8.6k/€9.5k in FY21/FY22, respectively. We estimate that
Inwit incurred an annual lease cost of c€8.7k/€8.4k per site in FY21/FY22. This compares to
Cellnex Italy at c€7.4k/€9.3k per site (Cellnex Italy leases increased due to the inclusion of the
Hutch sites perimeter). At the low end, we see Cellnex in Portugal and Sweden with lease
costs at around €4-5k/site/year.
FIGURE 23. TowerCo FY21/FY22 Lease cost per site (€000)
15.0
16.0
14.0 12.6
11.3
12.0 9.5 9.3 9.1 8.78.4 8.6
10.0 8.6 7.4 8.1 7.8 8.3
7.5 7.6 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.96.3
8.0 6.5 6.3 5.7 5.6
5.5 5.25.5 5.1 5.2
6.0 5.1
4.1
4.2
4.0 2.2
2.0
0.0
FY21 FY22
Note: Vantage Towers FY21 numbers relate to March 2021 year-end, FY22 numbers relate to March 2022 year-end.
Source: Barclays Research estimates
1 March 2024 16
Cellnex - Value lever 3: Driving colocation - We see

near-term headwinds
The key driver of TowerCo value creation is rising colocation rates, which should be driven by
increased mobile operator needs for more sites, driven in turn by increased expectations for
mobile data growth. We track EU mobile data usage by operator and market, and also fixed-line
data trends where possible. One of the clear trends that we have identified over the past couple of
years has been the slowdown of annual data traffic growth in percentage terms (the absolute
growth remains broadly steady). We see limited evidence of mobile taking dramatic share from
fixed-line, where we estimate usage remains c5-20x larger than mobile.
Mobile data traffic in focus – Annual growth rate continues to ease

We note that EU mobile data traffic has grown +20-25% y/y in the past few quarters, vs. c.+27%
in 2022, and c.+29% in 2021, reaching 15 GB/pop/mth in 3Q23 vs. 12.5 GB/pop/mth in 3Q22.
Finland remains the outlier (c.77 GB/pop/mth, growing c.+10% yoy in 9M23). Belgium and NL
remain relative data usage laggards (5.9 and 8.8GB/pop/mth, respectively), growing by average
rates of c.+26%/c.+16% y/y, respectively, over the past 12 months.
When comparing mobile usage and fixed usage, data-points on fixed-line usage are more sparse
than those on mobile (from the operators and regulators), although we estimate in aggregate
fixed-line is c.5-20x larger than mobile (on GB/pop/mth basis), and also growing c.10-15%/year.
Comparing fixed and mobile side by side is important: when looking at Finland's high mobile
data consumption, we note that it is a mobile-centric market, given that fixed broadband
penetration is lower than in other European markets, with only c50% of monthly data/pop
consumed over a fixed connection – total usage on fixed plus mobile is comparable to other EU
markets.
FIGURE 24. Europe: Mobile data usage (GB/pop/mth) FIGURE 25. Europe: Mobile data usage by market (GB/pop/mth), 3Q23
Data Usage Growth 90

16.0 70% 76.8
80
14.0 60% 70
12.0 60
50%
10.0 50
40%
8.0 40 31.9
30% 30
6.0 19.0 17.9
20 15.9 13.5
20% 11.0 11.0 10.6 8.8
4.0 5.9
10
2.0 10%
0
0.0 0%
Belgium
Sweden
Italy
France
UK
Spain
NL
Germany
Finland
Norway
Switz
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

EU GB/pop/month Annual Growth (%)
1 March 2024 17
FIGURE 26. Europe: Mobile data usage growth (% y/y), 3Q23 FIGURE 27. Europe: Mobile data usage growth (5yr CAGR %)
45% 50% 46% 45%

38% 45% 42%
40%
35% 37% 36%
40%
35%
29% 28% 35% 32% 31%
30% 29%
30%
25% 21% 25% 23% 22% 21%
18%
20% 17% 15% 20%
15% 11% 10% 15%
10% 10%
5%
5% 3%
0%
0%
FIGURE 28. European Telcos: Market-weighted GB/pop/mth vs. data consumption growth (% y/y)
45%
Switzerland
40% Germany Sweden
35%
Belgium
Data growth (%)
30%
25% Italy
France
20% UK
15% Spain Finland
Norway
10%
Netherlands
5%
0%
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0
GB/pop/month
Source: Company data, regulator data, Barclays Research
Fixed data traffic in focus – Growth remains steady after COVID-19 WFH
boost
Whereas most regulators (and operators) report mobile data traffic on a quarterly or annual
basis, the level of disclosure for fixed-line is much lower. We note that Ofcom publishes an
'Internet Broadband Scorecard' (see here) which includes fixed-line usage per pop per month
for a number of European countries. The data shows us a range from as low as 66GB/pop/
month (c.165GB/HH/mth) in Italy, to 199GB/pop/mth (c.498GB/HH/mth) in the UK in 2022, with
a European average of 121GB/pop/mth (303GB/HH/mth). On average, fixed data usage is 10x
larger than mobile on a per-pop basis.
The growth in fixed broadband data traffic was c.+30% for 2017-18 and c.+47% in 2019, before
jumping +67% in 2020, likely driven by the increase in working from home during the Covid
pandemic in 2020. Since then, fixed data usage growth has slowed to a more steady c10-15%
level. If we look at 2022 data, all the top fixed markets grew c10-20%/year. Data for the UK and
Italy for part of 2023 suggests this trend continues.
1 March 2024 18
FIGURE 29. EU Telcos: Average fixed data consumption (GB/pop/ FIGURE 30. EU Telcos: Fixed data consumption (GB/pop/month)
month)
Data/Pop Growth (%)

(GB)
140 80%
120 70%
100 60%
50%
80
40%
60 117 126
101 30%
40 20%
62
20 36 46 10%
27
0 0%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
EU Average (GB/pop/mth) EU Average (y/y growth %)
Source: Ofcom, CNMC, Bundesnet, AGCOM, Barclays Research Source: Ofcom, CNMC, Bundesnet, AGCOM, Barclays Research
Understanding whether there's a need for mobile operators to densify

their networks
The above analysis has shown that mobile data usage has continued to grow steadily, although
the annual year-on-year growth rates have slowed. At the same time, mobile operators across
Europe have benefited from increases in mobile spectrum, and also from improvements in
network/spectrum efficiency from 4G/5G. This is a subject we covered in detail in our report,
Telecom Services: Fixed Wireless Access – Revisiting the potential to disrupt, 13 September
2022. The key arguments were (and still are) as follows:
• Mobile operators added materially to their spectrum estates with the 5G spectrum
auctions. The combination of 700MHz and 3.4GHz spectrum broadly led to a doubling of
spectrum estates.
• Refarming 2G/3G spectrum to 4G/5G increases network/spectrum efficiency. Each

evolution of technology (2G to 3G, 3G to 4G, 4G to 5G) typically sees an increase in the
efficiency of the mobile spectrum. We concluded that, from 2018 to 2024, mobile operators
would see a c9x increase in radio cell site capacity.
• Most mobile sites still expected to have significant spare capacity by 2026. In the above
report, we looked at two scenarios of traffic growth: Scenario 1 being a 35% mobile traffic
CAGR, and Scenario 2 being a 50% CAGR. Our analysis suggested that in the higher-usage
growth scenario we would see urban sites becoming congested in 2024, but suburban sites
still having ample capacity. As we highlighted above, the growth has been more like a c30%
CAGR, suggesting no impending 'capacity crunch'. We do note that the rollout of 5G and
Massive Mimo has likely lagged our estimate slightly, but the implication is clear – on the
whole, mobile operators do not have a major need to densify their networks for capacity
reasons any time soon.
1 March 2024 19
FIGURE 31. EU Mobile: Download spectrum availability (urban FIGURE 32. EU Mobile: Radio cell capacity (urban sites)
sites) (MHz)
180 10
160 9
140 8
7
120
6
100
5
80 8.9
4 8.0
60 7.3
3 6.5
40 2
20 1
1.0 1.1 1.1
0 0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
2G/3G 4G 5G
Note: 2018 base capacity at 1.

FIGURE 33. EU Mobile: Urban cell capacity and traffic FIGURE 34. EU Mobile: Suburban cell capacity and traffic
Note: 2018 base capacity at 1. Note: 2018 base capacity at 1.

1 March 2024 20
Implications for TowerCos

The above analysis points to a slowing of mobile data traffic growth over the next two years, but
it also points to operators retaining material excess capacity from new 5G spectrum. With the 5G
business case still unproven, we do not believe there will be any material radio site build in
2024/2025 for capacity reasons, with much of the BTS build being limited to extending rural
coverage. Portugal and Belgium are exceptions, given new operator build plans. In Germany we
note most of the 1&1 build is new sites rather than colocation-driven. As such, we believe that
TowerCos will struggle to grow their tenancy ratios in the next 12-24 months. Indeed, if we were to
see a 'four-to-three' consolidation, we see a risk that tenancy ratios could contract in some cases.
Most 2023 site build appears to be led by coverage – Cellnex's tenancy ratio has
stalled outside Portugal
Recent Cellnex results suggest continued strong BTS build
In 3Q23 Cellnex's total tower portfolio reduced by 1.05k sites to 111.69k sites due to the
divestiture of c.2.35k urban sites in France to PTI and Bouygues as part of the agreement to
gradually sell down c.3.2k French sites in early 2022. This reflects the remedy imposed upon
Cellnex by the French competition authorities after the company acquired the Hivory tower
estate in October 2021. Ignoring this, 12 of Cellnex's 13 markets experienced tower additions in
aggregate of c.+1.3k in the quarter, with the UK, Italy and Poland contributing the most
additions at +379, +201 and +181 sites, respectively. This compares to 3Q22's overall site
additions of +846 and demonstrates Cellnex's overall BTS momentum (+942 new BTS sites in
3Q23 vs. +858 in 3Q22). We note that Total tenancies also reduced by 600 in 3Q23, due mostly to
the -2.12k tenancy losses as a result of M&A, including the French site divestitures. Ignoring
these, tenancy additions would have been c.+1.52k overall in 3Q23, slightly ahead of the +1.3k
site build.
Colocation growth has slowed materially outside Portugal

At the group level, Cellnex's tenancy ratio expanded to 1.38x in 3Q23 vs. 1.37x in 2Q23 and 1.36x
in 3Q22, with 582 new colocations in the quarter. Portugal was the primary driver behind
tenancy ratio growth in 3Q23 and reached 1.55x at the end of the quarter, compared to 1.49x in
2Q23. Looking at tenancy growth by market, we note tenancy growth was +431, +393, +274 and
+231 in 3Q23 in Portugal, the UK, Italy and Poland, respectively – with most of this driven by BTS
outside Portugal. France would have +261 ex the disposal. Indeed the closest market to Portugal
regarding tenancy ratio expansion was France, which went from 1.17x in 2Q23 to 1.19x in 3Q23,
with a majority of Cellnex's other markets either remaining flat or marginally contracting in the
quarter. Portugal has been the driver of tenancy ratio growth via colocation additions over the
past consecutive five quarters, expanding from 1.24x in 2Q22 to 1.55x at the end of 3Q23. The
somewhat muted impact from Portugal's colocation success on Cellnex's group tenancy ratio is
due to Portugal accounting for only c.6% of its total tower portfolio and c.7% of tenancies.
Cellnex has indicated a desire/strategy to replace BTS with colocation – we believe

this will likely take time
Partly in response to the above trends, we note that Cellnex management has indicated that it
intends to do more to push colocation in place of BTS programs with its customers in its other
markets. An example of this is the contract with SFR announced at the 2Q23 results. The new
contract will involve SFR deploying new PoPs in on both new and existing sites, each with a 20-
year term on an all-or-nothing renewal basis. As of 3Q23 SFR's outstanding BTS pipeline with
Cellnex stood at 2.7k sites, down from 2.8k at the end of 2Q23. Cellnex noted that the new SFR
agreement will be deployed over a six-year time horizon, with an associated investment of up to
c.€275m. This should deliver c.€35m in additional annual EBITDA (IFRS 16) to Cellnex upon
completion in 2029.
1 March 2024 21
INWIT benefits from two anchor tenants – but still seeing some slowdown in OLO
growth
INWIT operates only in Italy and added +230 new sites in 3Q23 compared to +225 sites in 2Q23,
taking the company's total tower portfolio to 23.76k sites. This compares to a total of 23k sites
at the end of 3Q22, a c.+3.3% y/y growth rate. For comparison, Cellnex Italy's tower portfolio
grew c.+4.9% y/y over the same period, reflecting the larger BTS rollout. INWIT added +1.02k
tenancies in 3Q23 compared to +1.06k in 2Q23 and +1.03k in 3Q22. Total tenancies have grown
by +4.43k y/y to 3Q23, bringing INWIT's tenancy ratio to 2.24x at the end of 3Q23 (Cellnex Italy:
1.61x as of 3Q23), still healthy growth compared to 2.12x at the end of 2Q23. The company has
continued to expand its tenancy ratio each quarter in recent years, even if growth from new
clients such as FWA players slowed slightly in the past quarter.
FIGURE 35. Cellnex: sites/tenancy ratio (000/x) FIGURE 36. INWIT: sites/tenancy ratio (000/x)
Sites (000) T ratio (x) Sites (000) T ratio (x)

120 1.8 24 2.3
1.6 24
100 2.3
1.4 24
80 1.2 2.2
23
1.0
60 23 2.2
0.8
40 0.6 23 2.1
0.4 23
20 2.1
0.2 23
0 0.0 2.0
22
1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23
22 2.0
Axis Title
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
Spain Italy
France ROE
Group TR (x) Portugal TR (x) Organic Number of Sites (000) Tenancy Ratio (x)
We do see M&A risk for colocation growth

We note that the 'four-to-three mobile-mobile merger' theme has been picking up in recent
periods, with all of Spain, the UK, Italy and France (70% of Cellnex's EBITDA) having been reported
as linked to mobile-mobile consolidation in some form. We do see Cellnex's contracts with its
customers generally protecting it from major M&A downside, but we do not see the company as
totally immune from M&A risk.
Cellnex – relatively defensive in the face of mobile-mobile consolidation

Cellnex has produced the chart below, which shows that most of its master service agreements
(MSAs) are long-term in nature (>10 years), providing a high level of visibility, even if there is
some mobile-mobile consolidation.
1 March 2024 22
FIGURE 37. Cellnex: Key contract terms
(1) c.1.9k overlapping PoPs

Source: Company
However, as we discussed in Cellnex Telecom: Downgrade to EW as overhangs weigh (04

October 2023), given potential and ongoing M&A activity in Spain, UK, Italy and France, we do
not believe Cellnex is immune to mobile-mobile mergers.
UK – Vodafone and 3UK announce plans to merge

As part of the Vodafone/3UK merger announced in June 2023, the two companies announced a
£700m/year cost synergy target that they aim to achieve five years after closing, with most of
the capex reduction coming from reducing overlap of the core networks. They also talked
overtly about rationalising radio networks over time, with a clear emphasis on pivoting towards
CTIL/Cornerstone (the Vodafone/O2 JV) and reducing the emphasis on MBNL (BT/3UK JV).
During the ensuing conference call, the companies made it clear that such action was planned
for towards the end of the five-year synergy delivery term. The UK Tower market is complex,
with two main network JVs – Cornerstone (VOD/O2) and MBNL (BT/3UK), with BT and Hutchison
both having some sites outside MBNL. Should the Vodafone/3UK merger complete, we would
expect the merged company to look to reduce its reliance on MBNL and Cellnex, due in part to
Vodafone's 50% ownership stake in Vantage Towers, which in turn owns 50% of the CTIL Towers
as well as Vodafone's mature active sharing deal with VMO2.
FIGURE 38. UK MNO and TowerCo landscape
We believe it would be logical for any potential Tower rationalisation to occur where Arqiva sites
(6.3k sites net of later remedies acquired by Cellnex in 2019) are close to CTIL sites, which is
hard to quantify. With the MBNL JV unlikely to unwind urban sites, we believe c.30% of the
1 March 2024 23
Arqiva rural/suburban sites could be at risk post 2031 – implying c.2k in total. Interestingly,
Cellnex estimates there are c.1.9k overlapping sites. BT has stated that "there is strong
contractual protection up to 2031", implying that it would be difficult for either party to unwind
prior to 2031 without material exit costs/penalties.
Spain – Orange and MasMovil merger in focus

The EC has ruled on the proposed Orange-MasMovil deal and has given conditional clearance
for the Orange and Masmovil merger. The approval is conditional on Romania's Digi acquiring
spectrum from Masmovil and an option for a national roaming service agreement with Orange,
which is consistent with Digi’s press release in December 2023. As the EC has accepted the
remedy package, it marks a positive inflection in its approach to in-market consolidation, with
no structural remedies imposed and, crucially, no requirement for the creation of a fourth
mobile network operator. For Cellnex we see a c.€15m potential impact from any site
rationalisation. On the other hand, should Digi eventually emerge as a new mobile operator
through the required disposal of spectrum and radio sites, this could create a tailwind - we see
this as unlikely.
As the merger was approved without the need for mobile asset disposals, we would see this as a
clear negative for Cellnex. On top of the Spain-specific risk that Orange might look to turn off a
number of the c.5k MasMovil sites (we estimate a €15m potential impact on Cellnex based upon
overlapping MAS/ORA sites), it would also suggest that other mobile operators in other EU
markets might look at possible consolidation and rationalisation of sites.
Italy – We anticipate potential consolidation post Telecom Italia NetCo deal in the
mid term
The Italian Telco/TowerCo market structure is relatively simple. Vodafone and Telecom Italia
have an active share agreement, using the Inwit TowerCo estate. This would be very hard to
unwind, given the all-or-nothing nature of the MSA, and the embedded active network-sharing
deal that exists between Vodafone and Telecom Italia. Cellnex acquired Towers from WIND/3UK,
and has WIND as an anchor tenant, with many of the Iliad sites also residing on the Cellnex
estate (we estimate c1.3k of the c10k Iliad sites are on Inwit). In a mobile-mobile merger, we
would therefore see Cellnex as likely most exposed negatively, with the Iliad sites likely most at
risk. We also note that Italy has been one of the most vibrant markets for tenancy ratio growth
in Europe – we believe this could slow should we go through a phase of mobile-mobile network
consolidation.
France – Altice leverage could impact future market structure

We note press reports that suggest a potential four-to-three merger scenario in France (Le
Monde – link here), although the companies in question have not confirmed the reports. We
would not expect to see potential mobile-mobile consolidation impacting existing Cellnex
tenancies (or in fact BTS build plans), but in our view it would likely result in much lower
tenancy growth as merging parties would look to rationalise sites, remove overlap and
postpone future densification.
France is one of Cellnex's most important markets, generating 23% of 2023e EBITDAaL, but also
c30% of group organic EBITDAaL growth, given the strong BTS build plans for all of Bouygues,
Iliad and SFR. Indeed, of Cellnex's €4.6bn BTS pipeline, €2.36bn still sits within France (as of
3Q23 reporting). One of our key frustrations in France has been the lack of tenancy ratio growth
at Cellnex in the past few years, as its operator partners have prioritised BTS build over
colocation (most likely due to better economics of BTS).
1 March 2024 24
Focus on pan-EU TowerCo forecasts – Our market model suggests modest

Tower and colocation growth going forwards
We estimate that the European tower market has grown at a c.2.5% CAGR over the three years
between 2020 and 2023, bringing the pan-European tower count to c.450k sites at the end of
2023. The leading markets have been France and Germany, which have accounted for
c.40%/20% of said growth, respectively. We estimate a five-year CAGR (2020-25) of c.2.3%, with
the 10-year CAGR (2020-30) lower at c.1.6% with France and Germany continuing to be the
markets driving European site growth.
We estimate that the growth in tenancies is higher than site count with a c.3.5% three-year
CAGR (2020-23) bringing pan-European tenancies to c.703k at the end of 2023. Again, France has
been the greatest contributor with c.30% of said growth, followed by Italy with c.23% share of
European tenancy growth. Tenancy growth outpacing site growth has expanded the pan-
European tenancy ratio to c.1.6x at the end of 2023, compared to c.1.5x in 2020. We anticipate a
c.3.7% five-year CAGR (2020-25) and a c.2.8% 10-year CAGR (2020-30), with Germany and France
leading the long-term growth. We see the pan-European tenancy ratio expanding to c.1.6x by
2025 and then to c.1.7x by 2030, with Portugal demonstrating the most colocation success to
arrive at a 2030 tenancy ratio of c.2.4x.
2023E
2024E
2026E
2027E
2029E
2030E
2025E
2028E
2022
FIGURE 39. Europe: Total towers by market FIGURE 40. Europe: Total tenants by market
France Spain Italy Belgium
600,000 900,000
Portugal Sweden Norway Finland
Greece Other Europe
700,000
400,000
500,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
2023E
2024E
2025E
2026E
2027E
2028E
2029E
2030E
2019
2020
2021
2022
0 -100,000
2023E
2024E
2025E
2026E
2027E
2028E
2029E
2030E
2019
2020
2021
2022
UK Germany France Spain UK Germany France Spain

Italy Belgium Netherlands Switzerland Italy Belgium Netherlands Switzerland
Portugal Sweden Norway Finland Portugal Sweden Norway Finland
Source: Company data, Barclays Research estimates Source: Company data, Barclays Research estimates
Spain
TowerCo market today. Spain represents Cellnex's fifth-largest market and c.8% of the total
portfolio (TIS sites). The Spanish Tower market is well developed, with Cellnex an early acquirer
of Towers, but more recently American Towers (AMT) has acquired much of the Telefonica Tower
estate (Telxius), Vantage Towers took ownership of much of the Vodafone Tower estate, and
Orange's Totem retains the Orange Towers. As such, we estimate that Cellnex has 24% of the
market share in Spain by number of (TIS) Towers. This is slightly behind AMT, which has c.32%
market share, with Vantage Towers at c.22%, and Totem at 20%.
1 March 2024 25
FIGURE 41. Spain: Tower by company / growth (000/%) FIGURE 42. Spain: Total radio sites / growth (000/%
40 8.0% 80 4%
35 7.0%
70
30 6.0%
60 3%
5.0%
25 50
4.0%
20
3.0% 40 2%
15
2.0% 30
10 1.0% 20 1%
5 0.0%
10
0 -1.0%
0 0%
2023E
2024E
2025E
2026E
2027E
2028E
2029E
2030E
2019
2020
2021
2022
Cellnex Orange Others Growth (%)
Operator outlook. The market share of radio sites in Spain appears to be dominated by
Vodafone, Orange and Telefonica, all with c18-21k radio sites. MasMovil has some sites but
relies on wholesale roaming in half the country. Total tenancies in Spain appear to have grown
gradually in recent years, we estimate by +1.7% in 2023 (+3.5% in 2022). The overall tenancy
ratio for the Spanish TowerCo market has remained steady / expanded marginally from c.1.7x in
2022 to c.1.8x in 2023. Cellnex Spain’s tenancy ratio has remained flat at 2.01x-2.02x in recent
quarters. Should Orange and Masmovil gain EC approval for their merger, this will likely present
a headwind to tenancy growth for the next two to three years.
Italy
TowerCo market today. Italy is Cellnex's second-largest market, representing c.20% of its total
portfolio. Inwit is the market leader, with c.48% share and with Vodafone/TI as its anchor
tenants. Cellnex has c.44% of the market share in Italy by number of Towers on a total market of
c.49.9k sites, with WIND/Hutch as its anchor tenants. Cellnex still has c.1.5k of BTS build to
complete for WIND in the market, which should make it broadly comparable to Inwit.
FIGURE 43. Italy: Tower by company / growth (000/%) FIGURE 44. Italy: Total radio sites / growth (000/%)
60 40%
100 10%
35% 90 9%
50
30% 80 8%
40 70 7%
25%
60 6%
30 20%
50 5%
15% 40 4%
20
10% 30 3%
10 20 2%
5%
10 1%
0 0%
0 0%
2023E
2024E
2025E
2026E
2027E
2028E
2029E
2030E
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023E
2024E
2025E
2026E
2027E
2028E
2029E
2030E
2019
2020
2021
2022
Inwit Cellnex Other
1 March 2024 26
Operator outlook. The market share of radio sites in Italy is currently dominated by Vodafone
and Telecom Italia, with c. 23k/21k, respectively. We estimate Iliad and Hutchison have
c.12k-13k/18-19k, respectively. Total tenancies in Italy appear to have grown considerably in
recent years – we estimate +7.5% overall in 2023, helped by operator densification, but also
helped by tenancy growth from FWA providers such as Linkem, and by Distributed Antenna
(DAS) systems. The overall tenancy ratio in Italy has grown steadily to around 1.53x at the end of
2023. With Iliad linked to potential M&A in the Italian market, we see a potential headwind. We
note that the acquired Iliad sites and BTS are subject to long-term leases – the colocation sites
will likely have much shorter-term leases.
France
TowerCo market today. France is Cellnex's largest market, representing c.21% of its total
portfolio (TIS) post divestitures. As of FY23 we estimate that Cellnex is France's largest TowerCo
with c.39% (post remedies) of the market share by number of Towers. We estimate that the total
French tower market includes c.59.8k sites, of which Orange/Totem have c.33% market share.
There are smaller Tower JVs, but Cellnex stands to build a further 7.3k BTS in France in the
coming years (partially offset by 3.2k required disposals), thereby likely cementing its position
as the leading French TowerCo.
FIGURE 45. France: Tower by company / growth (000/%) FIGURE 46. France: Total radio sites / growth (000/%)
80 12% 140 10%

9%
70 120
10% 8%
60 100 7%
8% 6%
50 80
5%
40 6% 60 4%
30 40 3%
4%
20 2%
20
2% 1%
10
0 0%
0 0%
2023E
2024E
2025E
2026E
2027E
2028E
2029E
2030E
2019
2020
2021
2022
Orange Cellnex Others yoy growth (%)
Operator outlook. The market share of radio sites in France appears to be dominated by
Orange, SFR and Iliad, with the total market comprised of c.107k sites. Bouygues has c.22%
market share. Total tenancies in France appear to have grown at some pace in recent years (we
estimate +5-6% overall in 2023), driven by BTS build, making France one of the fastest-growing
markets in Europe. The overall tenancy ratio in France has declined slightly to around 1.78x at
the end of 2023 vs. 1.79 at the end of 2022. However, Cellnex's tenancy ratio has grown to 1.19x
from 1.17x a year prior. Cellnex is the driving force of BTS in France, assuming ownership of the
multiple BTS builds taking place by all of SFR, Bouygues and Iliad. Cellnex is trying to convert
BTS deals to colocation, as indicated earlier.
UK
TowerCo market today. With Cellnex having acquired Towers from Arqiva and Hutchison, the
UK is now one of its larger markets, representing c.12% of Cellnex's total Towers portfolio. We
estimate that Cellnex is the UK's second-largest TowerCo, with c.31% market share by number
of Towers, on an estimated total market size of 42.5k sites. This is slightly behind the Tower JV
Cornerstone (50:50 owned be Vantage Towers and VMO2), with c.34% market share. BT and WIG
also have sites (c.11% market share). The UK TowerCo market is made more complex by the
1 March 2024 27
presence of two Network JVs (VOD/O2 on CTIL, and EE/3UK on MBNL), although many of the
MBNL sites are actually on Towers owned by Arqiva. The CTIL Towers are owned by Vantage
Towers (Vodafone share), and Telefonica and Liberty Global (VMO2 share).
FIGURE 47. UK: Tower by company / growth (000/%) FIGURE 48. UK: Total radio sites / growth (000/%)
50 2.5% 84 5%
45 2.0% 82
40 80 4%
1.5%
35
78
30 1.0%
76 3%
25 0.5%
74
20 0.0%
15 72 2%
-0.5% 70
10
5 -1.0% 68 1%
0 -1.5% 66
64 0%
2023E
2024E
2025E
2026E
2027E
2028E
2029E
2030E
2019
2020
2021
2022
Cellnex BT Others Market growth (%)
Operator outlook. Total tenancies in the UK appear to have grown modestly in recent years (we
estimate +1.5% overall in 2023). The market share of radio sites in the UK appears to be
dominated by BT/EE, O2 and Vodafone with c.27%/c.27%/c.23%, respectively. The overall
tenancy ratio in the UK has grown steadily to around 1.9x at the end of 2023, implying a high
level of sharing (due mostly to the network JV structure). Cellnex's tenancy ratio has actually
contracted to 1.28x from 1.48x one year prior due to the dilutive impact of the Hutch acquisition
and BTS build. The key question in the UK is the proposed Vodafone-Hutchison merger, which
will see Vodafone attempting to shift tenancies away from Cellnex, with the Arqiva estate being
most exposed.
Switzerland
TowerCo market today. Switzerland represents c.5% of Cellnex's total Towers portfolio,
following the acquisition of the Sunrise Tower estate in 2017. As of FY23 we estimate that
Cellnex is Switzerland's second-largest TowerCo, with c.45% market share by number of Towers
on a total market of c.12.16k sites. This is slightly behind Swisscom, which captures
approximately c.50% market share by Tower footprint. However, with c.670 BTS for Sunrise/
Salt, we believe Cellnex is likely to become as large as Swisscom Towers in the coming years.
1 March 2024 28
FIGURE 49. Switzerland: Tower by company / growth (000/%) FIGURE 50. Switzerland: Total radio sites / growth (000/%)
14 3%
16 4%
12 14
2%
10 12 3%
8 2% 10
8 2%
6 1%
6
4
1% 4 1%
2
2
0 0% 0 0%
2023E
2024E
2025E
2026E
2027E
2028E
2029E
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023E
2024E
2025E
2026E
2027E
2028E
2029E
2030E
2019
2020
2021
2022
Swisscom Cellnex Other
Operator outlook. Total tenancies in Switzerland appear to have remained relatively flat in
recent years (we estimate +1.3% overall growth in 2023). The market share of radio sites in
Switzerland appears to be dominated by Swisscom, with c.48%. This is due in part due to the
lack of market participants in Switzerland and limited asset sharing. The overall tenancy ratio in
Switzerland has remained at around 1x because of this. Cellnex's tenancy ratio for the region is
1.18x. The outlook for the Swiss market is steady, in our view.
Netherlands
TowerCo market today. The Netherlands is not a large market for Cellnex, representing just
c.4% of its total Towers portfolio. That said, as of FY23 we estimate that Cellnex is the
Netherlands' largest TowerCo with c.35% market share by number of Towers, KPN and T-Mobile
as anchor tenants and c.200 BTS sites outstanding for KPN and T-Mobile. This is ahead of
VodafoneZiggo with approximately c.23% market share on a total market of c.11.8k sites. KPN
has sold most of its Towers.
FIGURE 51. Netherlands: Tower by company / growth (000/%) FIGURE 52. Netherlands: Total radio sites / growth (000/%)
10 1%
20 3%
9
1% 18
8 16
7 14
0% 2%
6 12
5 -1% 10
4 8
-1% 1%
3 6
2 4
-2%
1 2
0 -2% 0 0%
2023E
2024E
2025E
2026E
2027E
2028E
2029E
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023E
2024E
2025E
2026E
2027E
2028E
2029E
2030E
2019
2020
2021
2022
VodZiggo Cellnex KPN
Operator outlook. Total tenancies in the Netherlands appear to have grown only marginally in
recent years following the merger between T-Mobile and Tele2 (we estimate just +1.9% growth
in 2023). The market share of radio sites in the Netherlands appears to be led by TMO
Netherlands, closely followed by KPN with c.34% market share, and VodZiggo with c.30%. There
is TowerCo sharing in the Netherlands – the overall market tenancy ratio has expanded slightly
1 March 2024 29
to around 1.4x vs. 1.3x in previous years. Cellnex's tenancy ratio for the region has been static at
1.42x in recent quarters. We note that KPN did signal modest radio site build over the next three
to four years, which would present a slight tailwind to growth.
Sweden
TowerCo market today. Sweden represents c.3% of Cellnex's total Towers portfolio, with
Cellnex having acquired the sites as part of the Hutchison transaction. As of FY23 we estimate
that Cellnex represents c.17% of Sweden's market share by number of Towers on a total market
of c.18.4k sites. This is behind the Telia/Brookfield JV, which captures approximately c.21%
market share, and the Tele2/Telenor JV with c.18%.
FIGURE 53. Sweden: Tower by company / growth (000/%) FIGURE 54. Sweden: Total radio sites / growth (000/%)
16 2%
50 1%
14 45
12 40
10 35
30
8 1%
25
6
20
4 15
2 10
0 0% 5
0 0%
2023E
2024E
2025E
2026E
2027E
2028E
2029E
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023E
2024E
2025E
2026E
2027E
2028E
2029E
2030E
2019
2020
2021
2022
Cellnex Telia Telenor Telenor/Tele2 JV
Operator outlook. Total tenancies in Sweden appear to have remained relatively flat in recent
years (we estimate +0.8% overall growth in 2023). We note relatively limited new build by Telia
or the Tele2/Telenor JV. We estimate Telia has c.24% market share of radio sites, whilst Tele2/
Telenor have 28%. There is a reasonably strong history of site-sharing in Sweden, given all the
JV structures (Telia/Tele2 on 3G, Telenor/Hutch on 3G, Tele2/Telenor on 4G). We estimate that
the overall tenancy ratio in Sweden has remained flat at around 2.3x for past three years.
Cellnex's tenancy ratio for the region remains low at 1.25x. A key question for the market is the
impact of the Telia/Tele2 3G network shutdown, and also possible mobile-mobile M&A, should it
occur.
Denmark
TowerCo market today. Denmark represents c.1% of Cellnex's total Towers portfolio. As of FY23
we estimate that Cellnex represents c.18% of Denmark's market share by number of Towers on
a total market of c.9.24k sites. This is behind the Telia/Telenor JV, which has c.40% market
share.
1 March 2024 30
FIGURE 55. Denmark: Tower by company / growth (000/%) FIGURE 56. Denmark: Total radio sites / growth (000/%)
12 3% 16 1%
10
14
2% 12
8
10
6 1% 8
6
4
0% 4
2 2
0 0%
0 -1%
2023E
2024E
2025E
2026E
2027E
2028E
2029E
2030E
2019
2020
2021
2022
2024E
2025E
2026E
2027E
2028E
2029E
2023E
2030E
2019
2020
2021
2022
Other Telenor/Telia JV
Cellnex Market growth (%)
Operator outlook. Total tenancies in Denmark appear to have remained relatively flat in recent
years (we estimate +0.6% overall growth in 2022). We estimate the overall tenancy ratio in
Denmark has remained static at around 1.6x since 2021. Cellnex's tenancy ratio for the region
remains low at 1.1x.
Portugal
TowerCo market today. Portugal represents c.6% of Cellnex's total Towers portfolio, and has a
number of growth drivers with Digi rolling out a fourth mobile network. As of FY23 we estimate
that Cellnex represents c.57% of Portugal's market share by number of Towers on a total market
of c.11.4k sites, making it Portugal's largest TowerCo, ahead of Vantage Towers.
FIGURE 57. Portugal: Tower by company / growth (000/%) FIGURE 58. Portugal: Total radio sites / growth (000/%)
14 10%
20 16%
9% 15%
12 18 14%
8% 13%
16
10 7% 12%
14 11%
8 6% 10%
12
5% 9%
10 8%
6 4% 7%
8 6%
4 3% 6 5%
2% 4%
2 4 3%
1% 2 2%
1%
0 0% 0 0%
2023E
2024E
2025E
2026E
2027E
2028E
2029E
2030E
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023E
2024E
2025E
2026E
2027E
2028E
2029E
2030E
2019
2020
2021
2022
Cellnex Vantage NOS Other
Operator outlook. Total tenancies in Portugal appear to have grown at a healthy pace in recent
years (we estimate +14.6% overall growth in 2023). On our estimates, the market share of radio
sites in Portugal is dominated by Vodafone at c.40% market share. Cellnex's tenancy ratio for
the region has expanded consistently in recent quarters to 1.55x, aided by the Digi build, whilst
the tenancy ratio for the Portuguese market as a whole sits at around c.1.3x.
1 March 2024 31
Austria
TowerCo market today. Austria represents 4% of Cellnex's total Towers portfolio. As of FY23 we
estimate that Cellnex represents c.26% of Austria's market share by number of Towers on a total
market of c.17.9k sites. This is behind ETS, with approximately c.34% market share, and
Deutsche Telekom, with approximately a c.40% market share.
FIGURE 59. Austria: Tower by company / growth (000/%) FIGURE 60. Austria: Total radio sites / growth (000/%)
20 2%
30 3%
25
15
20 2%
10 1%
15
5 10 1%
5
0 0%
0 0%
2023E
2024E
2025E
2026E
2027E
2028E
2029E
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023E
2024E
2025E
2026E
2027E
2028E
2029E
2030E
2019
2020
2021
2022
Telekom Austria Deutsche Telekom
Cellnex yoy growth (%)
Operator outlook. Total tenancies in Austria appear to have expanded healthily in 2023 (c.
+2.5%) after a c.-2.5% contraction in 2022. On our estimates, the market share of radio sites in
Austria is dominated by Hutch, followed by Telekom Austria with c.34% market share and
Deutsche Telekom with c.31% share. Cellnex's tenancy ratio for the region has remained at
1.16x in recent periods, with Austria as a whole sitting at c.1.3x.
1 March 2024 32
Cellnex – estimates and valuation

We do make modest changes to our underlying assumptions following results. We reduce
revenues -0.1% for 2024e and -0.1% for 2025e, and reduce EBITDAaL -0.1%/-0.1%. Our RLFCF
estimates fall -0.9%/-0.8% to €1,643m/€1,899m, respectively, for FY24e/FY25e.
FIGURE 61. Cellnex – Changes to estimates (EURm)
New Old Change (%)

2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E
Revenues 4,289 4,660 4,919 4,292 4,663 4,922 -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%
Adj. EBITDA 3,196 3,510 3,722 3,198 3,512 3,724 -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%
Leases 892 917 943 892 916 941 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
EBITDAaL 2,303 2,593 2,779 2,306 2,596 2,783 -0.1% -0.1% -0.2%
EBIT 677 1,053 1,322 673 1,055 1,328 0.6% -0.1% -0.5%
Profit before tax -178 155 385 -191 147 384 -6.7% 5.2% 0.4%
Net income -138 128 313 -148 122 312 -6.8% 4.8% 0.3%
Basic EPS -0.20 0.18 0.44 -0.21 0.17 0.44 -6.9% 4.8% 0.3%
Adjusted EPS -0.17 0.20 0.46 -0.19 0.19 0.46 -7.6% 4.3% 0.3%
DPS 1.00 1.10 1.21 1.00 1.10 1.21 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Non-M&A Capex 2,052 1,753 1,481 2,026 1,725 1,452 1.3% 1.6% 2.1%
OpFCF 1,144 1,756 2,241 1,172 1,787 2,273 -2.4% -1.7% -1.4%
RLFCF 1,643 1,899 2,050 1,658 1,914 2,066 -0.9% -0.8% -0.8%
Net Debt 20,418 20,976 21,014 19,970 20,481 20,468 2.2% 2.4% 2.7%
We model revenues of €4.3bn/€4.7bn/€4.9bn in FY24e/FY25e/FY26e with Adj. EBITDA of €3.2bn/

€3.5bn/€3.7bn, respectively. This presents 2023-2026e revenue/Adj. EBITDA CAGRs of c7%/c8%.
Through FY24e/FY25e/FY26e we assume DPS of €1/€1.10/€1.21, respectively.
1 March 2024 33
FIGURE 62. Cellnex: P&L (€m)
2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E

Broadcast Infrastructure 219 224 230 234 236 239 241 244
Telecom Site Rental 2,215 3,163 3,685 3,896 4,185 4,406 4,606 4,783
Network Services & Other 105 112 138 159 238 274 310 345
Revenues 2,538 3,498 4,052 4,289 4,660 4,919 5,157 5,373
y/y (%) 57.9% 37.8% 15.8% 5.9% 8.6% 5.6% 4.8% 4.2%
Operating Costs -617 -868 -1,044 -1,095 -1,150 -1,197 -1,238 -1,273
Adjusted EBITDA 1,921 2,631 3,008 3,195 3,510 3,722 3,918 4,099
margin (%) 75.7% 75.2% 74.2% 74.5% 75.3% 75.7% 76.0% 76.3%
y/y (%) 62.5% 37.0% 14.4% 6.2% 9.9% 6.1% 5.3% 4.6%
one-off costs -176 -79 -82 -15 -15 -15 0 0
EBITDA 1,745 2,552 2,926 3,180 3,495 3,707 3,918 4,099
margin (%) 68.7% 72.9% 72.2% 74.1% 75.0% 75.4% 76.0% 76.3%
D&A -1,688 -2,321 -2,553 -2,503 -2,441 -2,385 -2,297 -2,244
Operating Income 57 231 374 677 1,053 1,322 1,621 1,856
Net Finance Costs -591 -729 -808 -852 -896 -934 -1,003 -1,079
Associate income 0 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3
PBT -534 -503 -437 -178 155 385 616 774
Tax expense 159 190 121 35 -31 -78 -124 -155
Tax rate (%) 29.8% 37.8% 27.6% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%
Minorities 24 16 19 4 5 5 5 5
Net income -351 -297 -297 -138 128 313 497 624
Basic EPS -0.52 -0.42 -0.42 -0.20 0.18 0.44 0.70 0.88
Diluted EPS -0.50 -0.42 -0.42 -0.20 0.18 0.44 0.70 0.88
EPS (adj) -0.25 -0.31 -0.31 -0.17 0.20 0.46 0.70 0.88
NOSH (av) 672 706 706 706 706 706 706 706
Diluted NOSH (av) 706 706 706 706 706 706 706 706
DPS 0.05 0.08 0.08 1.00 1.10 1.21 1.33 1.46

Source: Company data, Barclays Research estimates
We assume FY24e/FY25e/FY26e FCF and RLFCF of €-621m/€259m/€687m and €1.64bn/€1.9bn/

€2.05bn. Our total capex estimates over the respective periods are €2.39bn/€1.75bn/€1.48bn, of
which BTS capex accounts for €1.36bn/€1.04bn/€748m. Our FY24e/FY25e/FY26e net debt
estimates are €20.42bn/€20.98bn/€21.01bn.
1 March 2024 34
FIGURE 63. Cellnex: CFS (€m)
2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E

Adj. EBITDA 1,921 2,631 3,008 3,195 3,510 3,722 3,918 4,099
Cash interest -183 -258 -381 -410 -449 -482 -546 -617
Cash tax -87 -89 -134 -125 -131 -128 -124 -155
Net WC -0 -17 16 0 0 0 0 0
Other -364 -438 -228 -15 -15 -15 0 0
OpCF 694 1,037 1,430 1,752 1,997 2,154 2,288 2,357
Capex -1,521 -2,569 -1,754 -2,388 -1,753 -1,481 -1,076 -1,032
M&A capex and other -12,382 -3,381 -599 300 0 170 -570 0
Investing CF -13,904 -5,950 -2,353 -2,088 -1,753 -1,311 -1,646 -1,032
Bank borrowings 394 2,047 921 0 0 0 0 0
Bond issue 5,870 983 0 0 0 0 0 0
Group companies borrowings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -500
Group companies repayment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Repayment bank borrowings -505 -288 752 0 0 0 0 0
Repayment of other borrowings 0 -600 -11 0 0 0 0 0
Parent dividends -32 -37 -40 -54 -706 -777 -855 -940
Minority dividends 0 0 0 4 27 28 30 31
Share transactions 6,766 -286 53 0 0 0 0 0
Financing CF 12,524 2,015 262 -50 -679 -749 -825 -1,409
Net financial debt (IFRS16) 14,540 19,838 20,102 20,418 20,976 21,014 21,281 20,915
Net debt/adj EBITDA (IFRS16) 6.5 7.5 6.7 6.4 6.0 5.6 5.4 5.1
Net debt/adj EBITDA (pre IFRS16) 7.3 9.1 7.3 6.9 6.3 5.9 5.6 5.1
Source: Company data, Barclays Research estimates
FIGURE 64. Cellnex: SOTP (€m)

2023 EV/
SoP EV Stake Value EBITDA PF EBITDA Towers % of EV
Spain 4,399 100.0% 4,399 13.7 367 10,605 9%
Italy 8,036 100.0% 8,036 13.9 691 23,150 16%
France 17,563 97.3% 17,089 24.5 1,351 29,235 34%
Rest of Europe 22,569 93.0% 20,989 16.2 2,052 65,567 42%

Total 52,567 96.1% 50,513 17.5 4,460 128,557 100%
Net debt - 2024e -20,418
Minority ND 1,005
Lease adjustment -8,892
Convertible not in net debt -315
M&A cash out/in -317
Tax assets 1,500
Equity Value 23,077
NOSH (m) 706
Price target 33
1 March 2024 35
FIGURE 65. Cellnex: Comps (x/%)
2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E

P/E (x) NM NM (153.0) 201.5 73.8 42.5
EFCF yield (%) -6.0% 0.7% -0.6% 1.7% 3.6% 6.2%
Dividend yield (%) 0.2% 0.2% 3.0% 3.4% 3.9% 4.5%

TSR yield (%) 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 3.0% 3.4% 3.9%
EV/EBITDAaL 21.5 17.4 16.7 15.0 13.9 13.1
EV/OpFCF (708.4) 29.3 39.2 24.8 18.9 14.6
Unlevered EFCF yield (%) -0.2% 2.6% 1.7% 2.8% 3.7% 4.8%
EV/Tower (€m) 0.47 0.47 0.45 0.43 0.41 0.41
EV/Tower (USDm) 0.52 0.51 0.49 0.48 0.46 0.45
RLFCF (%) 6.0% 6.6% 7.0% 8.4% 9.3% 10.2%
Normalised EFCF yield (%) 3.7% 5.0% 6.1% 7.1% 7.7% 8.3%
Note: Price as of market close on 29 February 2024.
1 March 2024 36
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Primary Stocks (Ticker, Date, Price)
Cellnex Telecom (CLNX.MC, 28-Feb-2024, EUR 33.17), Equal Weight/Neutral, A/CD/D/E/J/K/L/M/N
Materially Mentioned Stocks (Ticker, Date, Price)
EuroTeleSites (ETS.VI, 28-Feb-2024, EUR 3.69), Overweight/Neutral, J
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1&1 AG (1U1.DE) AST SpaceMobile Inc (ASTS) Bouygues SA (BOUY.PA)
1 March 2024 38
BT Group PLC (BT.L) Cellnex Telecom (CLNX.MC) Deutsche Telekom AG (DTEGn.DE)

Digi Communications N.V. (DIGI.BX) Elisa Oyj (ELISA.HE) EuroTeleSites (ETS.VI)
Freenet (FNTGn.DE) Gamma Communications PLC (GAMA.L) INWIT (INWT.MI)
Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM) KPN (KPN.AS) Liberty Global (LBTYA)
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Swisscom (SCMN.S) Tele2 AB (TEL2b.ST) Telecom Italia SpA (TLIT.MI)
Telecom Italia-RSP (TLITn.MI) Telefonica Deutschland (O2Dn.DE) Telefonica SA (TEF.MC)
Telekom Austria (TELA.VI) Telenor ASA (TEL.OL) Telia Company AB (TELIA.ST)
United Internet (UTDI.DE) ViaSat (VSAT) Vodafone Group Plc (VOD.L)
Zegona Communications plc (ZEG.L)
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Barclays Capital Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V. (BCCB, Mexico)
Barclays Securities (India) Private Limited (BSIPL, India)
Barclays Bank PLC, Singapore Branch (Barclays Bank, Singapore)
Barclays Bank PLC, DIFC Branch (Barclays Bank, DIFC)
1 March 2024 39
Cellnex Telecom (CLNX SM / CLNX.MC)

Stock Rating: EQUAL WEIGHT
Industry View: NEUTRAL
Closing Price: EUR 33.17 (28-Feb-2024)
Rating and Price Target Chart - EUR (as of 28-Feb-2024)

Currency=EUR
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
Jul-2021 Jan-2022 Jul-2022 Jan-2023 Jul-2023 Jan-2024
Closing Price Target Price Rating Change
Source: IDC, Barclays Research

Link to Barclays Live for interactive charting
Publication Closing Price* Rating Adjusted Price

Date Target
07-Dec-2023 35.75 33.00
13-Nov-2023 30.43 32.00
04-Oct-2023 32.21 Equal Weight 35.00
05-Jun-2023 37.99 48.00
13-Jan-2023 32.60 43.00
26-Sep-2022 32.26 41.00
11-Jul-2022 38.60 66.00
28-Feb-2022 39.89 67.00
04-Feb-2022 39.21 66.00
20-Jan-2022 42.19 65.00
20-Aug-2021 60.28 67.00
23-Apr-2021 46.96 60.00
On 28-Feb-2021, prior to any intra-day change that may have been
published, the rating for this security was Overweight, and the adjusted
price target was 64.84.
Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research
*This is the closing price referenced in the publication, which may not be
the last available closing price at the time of publication.
Historical stock prices and price targets may have been adjusted for stock
splits and dividends.
A: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has been lead manager or co-lead manager of a publicly disclosed offer of securities of Cellnex Telecom in the
previous 12 months.
CD: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a market-maker in debt securities issued by Cellnex Telecom.
D: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from Cellnex Telecom in the past 12 months.
1 March 2024 40
E: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Cellnex Telecom
within the next 3 months.
J: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a liquidity provider and/or trades regularly in the securities by Cellnex Telecom and/or in any related
derivatives.
K: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received non-investment banking related compensation (including compensation for brokerage services,
if applicable) from Cellnex Telecom within the past 12 months.
L: Cellnex Telecom is, or during the past 12 months has been, an investment banking client of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate.
M: Cellnex Telecom is, or during the past 12 months has been, a non-investment banking client (securities related services) of Barclays Bank PLC
and/or an affiliate.
N: Cellnex Telecom is, or during the past 12 months has been, a non-investment banking client (non-securities related services) of Barclays Bank PLC
and/or an affiliate.
Valuation Methodology: Our price target is based on a WACC of 7.0% with terminal growth of 2.5%.
Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Barclays Research Valuation and Price Target: We see two main risks to the downside: Cellnex
struggles to convince mobile operators to sell their towers or use Cellnex's, and increasing rate expectations lead to the market applying a higher
RLFCF yield. We see M&A as the main risk to the upside.
EuroTeleSites (ETS AV / ETS.VI)

Stock Rating: OVERWEIGHT
Industry View: NEUTRAL
Closing Price: EUR 3.69 (28-Feb-2024)
Rating and Price Target Chart - EUR (as of 28-Feb-2024)

Currency=EUR
5.75
5.50
5.25
5.00
4.75
4.50
4.25
4.00
3.75
3.50
3.25
3.00
Oct-2023 Nov-2023 Dec-2023 Jan-2024 Feb-2024 Mar-2024
Closing Price Target Price Rating Change
Source: IDC, Barclays Research

Link to Barclays Live for interactive charting
Publication Closing Price* Rating Adjusted Price

Date Target
19-Oct-2023 3.47 Overweight 5.00
Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research
*This is the closing price referenced in the publication, which may not be
the last available closing price at the time of publication.
Historical stock prices and price targets may have been adjusted for stock
splits and dividends.
J: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a liquidity provider and/or trades regularly in the securities by EuroTeleSites and/or in any related
derivatives.
Valuation Methodology: We value EuroTeleSites using DCF methodology using 7% WACC and 1.5% growth rate.
1 March 2024 41
Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Barclays Research Valuation and Price Target: EuroTeleSites is not completely insulated from
inflation as the annual indexation is capped at 3%. If inflation in the EuroTeleSites markets persists above 3% then it may negatively impact the
margins of the company. EuroTeleSites is largely dependent on the Telekom Austria Group (nearly 95% of revenue during 2022) performance. While
the leverage and FCF position of Telekom Austria Group remains strong, any adverse situation can materially impact the stock performance.
Disclaimer:
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advisor.
© Copyright Barclays Bank PLC (2024). All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or redistributed in any manner without the
prior written permission of Barclays. Barclays Bank PLC is registered in England No. 1026167. Registered office 1 Churchill Place, London, E14 5HP.
Additional information regarding this publication will be furnished upon request.
1 March 2024 44

Joseph Fitchet
+44 (0)20 3134 3365
joseph.fitchet@barclays.com
Barclays, UK
1 March 2024 45

Cellnex: Capital Markets Day Key To Understand Future Value Unlock

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Equity Research

European Telecom Services

Cellnex: Capital Markets Day key to

European Telecom Services NEUTRAL

Price (28-Feb-24) EUR 33.17

The Story in 6 Charts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Cellnex - Value lever 2: Driving cost efficiencies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Cellnex - Value lever 3: Driving colocation - We see near-term headwinds

Cellnex – estimates and valuation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

CLNX.MC: Financial and Valuation Metrics EPS EUR

FY Dec 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

European Telecom Services NEUTRAL

Cellnex Telecom (CLNX.MC) EQUAL WEIGHT

The Story in 6 Charts

Data Usage Growth Data/Pop Growth (%)

Sites (000) T ratio (x) Sites (000) T ratio (x)

UK Germany France Spain UK Germany France Spain

Cellnex: 4Q23 results recap

FIGURE 7. Cellnex 4Q23 Results vs. Barclays, Consensus

Cellnex - Value lever 1: Delever balance sheet,

Deleveraging in focus - M&A optionality

Cellnex - Value lever 2: Driving cost efficiencies

Dissecting and comparing TowerCo profitability

FIGURE 8. FY22 EBITDA margin (ex energy) per country (%)

Comparing Revenue and profitability per site

50.0 45.2 45.0 40.8

FIGURE 11. FY22 EBITDA per site (€000)

Opex deep dive

14.0 8.0 7.0

200 183 179 3.0 2.8

Tenancy ratios and relative profitability in focus

FIGURE 17. Tenancy ratio: 1Q21 vs 1Q23

Tenancy ratio (x)

1,400 15% 14%

Note: Spain Ebitda is kept constant at FY22 reported levels

1,400 70% 65%

Source: Barclays Research estimates Source: Barclays Research estimates

FIGURE 23. TowerCo FY21/FY22 Lease cost per site (€000)

Cellnex - Value lever 3: Driving colocation - We see

Mobile data traffic in focus – Annual growth rate continues to ease

Data Usage Growth 90

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

45% 50% 46% 45%

Source: Company data, regulator data, Barclays Research

Data/Pop Growth (%)

Understanding whether there's a need for mobile operators to densify

• Refarming 2G/3G spectrum to 4G/5G increases network/spectrum efficiency. Each

Note: 2018 base capacity at 1.

Note: 2018 base capacity at 1. Note: 2018 base capacity at 1.

Implications for TowerCos

Colocation growth has slowed materially outside Portugal

Cellnex has indicated a desire/strategy to replace BTS with colocation – we believe

Sites (000) T ratio (x) Sites (000) T ratio (x)

We do see M&A risk for colocation growth

Cellnex – relatively defensive in the face of mobile-mobile consolidation

FIGURE 37. Cellnex: Key contract terms

(1) c.1.9k overlapping PoPs

However, as we discussed in Cellnex Telecom: Downgrade to EW as overhangs weigh (04

UK – Vodafone and 3UK announce plans to merge

FIGURE 38. UK MNO and TowerCo landscape

Source: Barclays Research estimates

Spain – Orange and MasMovil merger in focus

France – Altice leverage could impact future market structure